| {"Question":"Will Representative Dean Phillips cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 9 June 2024?","Started_time":"2024-02-09","Closed_time":"2024-03-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips has continued his challenge to President Biden's quest for the 2024 Democratic nomination despite overwhelming odds (USA Today). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Phillips no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"When will Nikki Haley cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination for US president?","Started_time":"2024-01-22","Closed_time":"2024-03-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Haley is pushing hard to stay in the race for the Republican nomination as endorsements for Trump add up (ABC News, CBS News). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Haley no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that she is fully suspending her campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 6 March 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Between 6 March 2024 and 18 April 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"Between 19 April 2024 and 1 June 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Between 2 June 2024 and 14 July 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Not before 15 July 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"}},"choices":["Before 6 March 2024","Between 6 March 2024 and 18 April 2024","Between 19 April 2024 and 1 June 2024","Between 2 June 2024 and 14 July 2024","Not before 15 July 2024"],"target":"Between 6 March 2024 and 18 April 2024"} | |
| {"Question":"What percentage of the vote will Rep. Dean Phillips receive in the 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary?","Started_time":"2024-02-16","Closed_time":"2024-03-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With Marianne Williamson dropping out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, the final noteworthy candidate competing against President Biden is Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips (Politico, Ballotpedia). The Minnesota Democratic primary is scheduled for 5 March 2024 (270 to Win, Minnesota Public Radio).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"At least 5.0%, but less than 10.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"At least 10.0%, but less than 15.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"At least 15.0%, but less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"20.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 5.0%","At least 5.0%, but less than 10.0%","At least 10.0%, but less than 15.0%","At least 15.0%, but less than 20.0%","20.0% or more"],"target":"At least 5.0%, but less than 10.0%"} | |
| {"Question":"Will a Republican place in the top two in the primary for the special US Senate election for California in 2024?","Started_time":"2024-01-05","Closed_time":"2024-03-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Polls indicate that Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is leading the race for California's nonpartisan primary to fill the Senate seat vacated due to the death of Dianne Feinstein, but Republican Steve Garvey has been consistently polling well (KTLA, Politico). The nonpartisan primary is scheduled for 5 March 2024 (Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"Before 9 April 2024, will Senator Krysten Sinema publicly announce whether she is running in the US Senate election for Arizona in 2024?","Started_time":"2024-01-05","Closed_time":"2024-03-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Krysten Sinema, who was first elected to the US Senate in 2018 as a Democrat and subsequently became an independent, has not announced whether she will run for reelection (Axios, NBC News). Whether she announces that she will seek a particular party's nomination is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and she will announce that she is running":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Yes, and she will announce that she is not running":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"}},"choices":["Yes, and she will announce that she is running","Yes, and she will announce that she is not running","No"],"target":"Yes, and she will announce that she is not running"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?","Started_time":"2023-11-24","Closed_time":"2024-03-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Gas prices in the US fell throughout the fall of 2024, but upside risks remain (CNBC, The Hill). The question will be suspended on 4 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 5 March 2024 (AAA, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $2.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.00 and $2.45, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $2.45 but less than $2.80":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.80 and $3.15, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $3.15 but less than $3.50":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Between $3.50 and $3.85, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $3.85 but less than $4.20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $4.20 and $4.65, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $4.65":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $2.00","Between $2.00 and $2.45, inclusive","More than $2.45 but less than $2.80","Between $2.80 and $3.15, inclusive","More than $3.15 but less than $3.50","Between $3.50 and $3.85, inclusive","More than $3.85 but less than $4.20","Between $4.20 and $4.65, inclusive","More than $4.65"],"target":"More than $3.15 but less than $3.50"} | |
| {"Question":"In Trump v. Anderson, will the Supreme Court rule that the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering Donald Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot?","Started_time":"2024-01-12","Closed_time":"2024-03-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda","US Policy"],"Description":"On 19 December 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that Donald Trump was disqualified from becoming president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (CBS News, Colorado Supreme Court - Anderson v. Griswold). The US Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's appeal and has scheduled oral arguments for 8 February 2024 (Axios, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"In Trump v. Anderson, how many US Supreme Court Justices will vote that the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering Donald Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot?","Started_time":"2024-02-09","Closed_time":"2024-03-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda","US Policy"],"Description":"On 8 February 2024, the US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Donald Trump's appeal of the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to remove him from the state presidential ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (C-SPAN - Oral Arguments in Trump v. Anderson, AP, Axios, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"0 or 1.\" The legal bases asserted by a Justice are immaterial. If the opinion of the Court is per curiam, any Justices not named in any concurrence or dissent will be deemed to have voted for the opinion (Cornell - Per Curiam).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0 or 1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2 or 3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"6 or 7":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"8 or 9":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"69%"}},"choices":["0 or 1","2 or 3","4","5","6 or 7","8 or 9"],"target":"8 or 9"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the \"net sympathy\" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2024, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?","Started_time":"2023-11-10","Closed_time":"2024-02-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Support for Israel among Americans remains high, but it has slipped among different segments of the population (NPR, Gallup - 16 March 2023). The question will be suspended on 6 February 2024 and the outcome determined using survey data as reported by Gallup, expected in the first quarter of 2024 (Gallup - Middle East). The \"net sympathy\" will be calculated by subtracting the \"more sympathetic\" percentage for Palestinians from the \"more sympathetic\" percentage for Israelis. In 2023, \"more sympathies\" for Israel was 54%, and for Palestinians 31%, creating a \"net sympathy\" for Israelis of 23 points. The full question posed by Gallup has historically been, \"In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?\" to which 54% responded \"Israelis\" in 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 10 points or negative":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"At least 10 points, but fewer than 20 points":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"At least 30 points, but fewer than 40 points":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"40 points for more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 10 points or negative","At least 10 points, but fewer than 20 points","At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points","At least 30 points, but fewer than 40 points","40 points for more"],"target":"At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points"} | |
| {"Question":"Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-29","Closed_time":"2024-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed as of 28 December 2023 (Ars Technica, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"When will Egypt's official exchange rate for the Egyptian pound to the US dollar next reach or exceed 34.5000?","Started_time":"2023-10-27","Closed_time":"2024-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Egypt has devalued its currency, the pound, thrice since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but has not adopted a flexible exchange rate as it agreed to with the IMF in 2022 (US News & World Report, The National). The outcome will be determined using official exchange rate data as reported by the Central Bank of Egypt (Central Bank of Egypt, see \"Sell\" column). Egypt's presidential election is scheduled for 10-12 December 2023, with a runoff scheduled for 8-10 January 2024 if necessary (Egyptian Streets). The dates in the answer bins will not be changed, regardless of any change in the election schedule announced by the Egyptian government.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 13 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13 December 2023 and 10 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11 January 2024 and 29 February 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 March 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 13 December 2023","Between 13 December 2023 and 10 January 2024","Between 11 January 2024 and 29 February 2024","Not before 1 March 2024"],"target":"Not before 1 March 2024"} | |
| {"Question":"Before 1 March 2024, will a new nationwide national or public health emergency related to COVID-19 be declared by the US federal government?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2024-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"On 31 January 2020, HHS Secretary Azar declared a public health emergency under the Public Health Service Act related to COVID-19, which was repeatedly extended through 11 May 2023 (HHS.gov - COVID Public Health Emergency, HHS.gov - End of COVID Public Health Emergency). President Trump later declared a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act on 13 March 2020 (Trump White House Archives). A declaration must be made pursuant to either the Public Health Service Act or the National Emergencies Act to count (PHE.gov - Public Health Service Act, Ballotpedia - National Emergencies Act). The question would close upon the date of the declaration, irrespective of a determination that a national or public health emergency existed since a prior date.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will the US Supreme Court agree to hear Donald Trump's appeal from the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit) regarding presidential immunity?","Started_time":"2024-02-12","Closed_time":"2024-02-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda","US Policy"],"Description":"On 6 February 2024, the DC Circuit affirmed a lower court ruling that former President Trump did not have presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for events related to the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (The Hill, DC Circuit - US v. Trump Opinion, Fox News - US v. Trump Judgment and Stay, ABC News). Trump has asked the Court to continue a stay against further trial court proceedings and is expected to file a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court for review soon after the launch of this question (NPR, Supreme Court - Trump Application for Stay Pending the Filing of a Petition for Writ of Certiorari). Whether the Court grants a stay is immaterial, and any disposition of a case heard by the Court is immaterial. The question would close upon the Supreme Court denying Trump's petition for review. If, for whatever reason, Trump does not file a petition for certiorari before 6 March 2024, the question will close \"No\" as of 6 March 2024. If the petition for certiorari is still pending as of 29 March 2024, the closing date will be extended.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"What percentage of the vote will Nikki Haley receive in the 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary?","Started_time":"2024-02-02","Closed_time":"2024-02-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As of the end of January 2024, Nikki Haley was the last major challenger to Donald Trump for the GOP presidential nomination (Politico, Newsweek). The Michigan Republican primary is scheduled for 27 February 2024 (270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 10.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"40.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 10.0%","At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0%","At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%","At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%","40.0% or more"],"target":"At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%"} | |
| {"Question":"What percentage of the vote will Joe Biden receive in the 2024 Michigan Democratic presidential primary?","Started_time":"2024-02-02","Closed_time":"2024-02-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are three candidates on the Michigan Democratic primary ballot: President Joe Biden, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, and Marianne Williamson (Michigan Secretary of State). The Michigan Democratic primary is scheduled for 27 February 2024 (270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 65.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"At least 65.0%, but less than 75.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"At least 75.0%, but less than 85.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"At least 85.0%, but less than 95.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"95.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Less than 65.0%","At least 65.0%, but less than 75.0%","At least 75.0%, but less than 85.0%","At least 85.0%, but less than 95.0%","95.0% or more"],"target":"At least 75.0%, but less than 85.0%"} | |
| {"Question":"What percentage of new, light-duty zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) sold in California in 2023 will be Tesla vehicles, according to the California Energy Commission (CEC)?","Started_time":"2023-08-25","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Environment"],"Description":"The California car market is by far in the lead for ZEV sales in the US (Teslarati, San Francisco Standard, Autoweek). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data for all of 2023 as reported by the CEC (CEC). Historical data may be retrieved using the \"Year\" and \"Make\" filters under \"SELECT FILTERS.\" For 2022, the CEC reported Tesla sales of 212,586 vehicles and total light-duty ZEV sales of 345,818, for a Tesla percentage of ZEV sales of 61.47%. An xlsx file with historical data current as of the launch of this question may be downloaded here: California ZEV Sales 2011-2023YTD.xlsx.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 48.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"More than 54.0% but less than 60.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Between 60.0% and 66.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"More than 66.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 48.0%","Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive","More than 54.0% but less than 60.0%","Between 60.0% and 66.0%, inclusive","More than 66.0%"],"target":"Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"Before 26 February 2024, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by Belarus?","Started_time":"2023-08-25","Closed_time":"2024-02-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Tensions have risen between Russian ally Belarus and the bordering NATO member states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland as the Belarusian military and Wagner Group forces began drills in the west of the country (Guardian, NBC News, Euronews). Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, states that any member can call for consultations when they believe they are under threat, while Article 5 covers collective defense in the event of an armed attack against a member (NATO - Article 4, NATO - Article 5). Article 4 was last invoked in February 2022 by several NATO member states in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (CNBC TV18).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"What percentage of the vote will Nikki Haley receive in the 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary?","Started_time":"2024-01-24","Closed_time":"2024-02-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Nikki Haley, who was governor of South Carolina for two terms, is fighting for her presidential campaign's survival as Donald Trump stacks up endorsements (WHYY, ABC News). The South Carolina Republican primary is scheduled for 24 February 2024 (270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 10.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"At least 40.0%, but less than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"50.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Less than 10.0%","At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0%","At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%","At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%","At least 40.0%, but less than 50.0%","50.0% or more"],"target":"At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the price of natural gas in Europe on 16 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-10-13","Closed_time":"2024-02-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Russia-Ukraine Conflict","Middle East in Focus","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"With the second winter since Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaching and with supply disruptions in Australia and the Mediterranean partially offset by high storage levels, observers are keeping a close eye on the Dutch benchmark for natural gas in the EU (Euronews, CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 15 February 2024 and the outcome determined using Dutch TTF Gas data (euros per megawatt hour) as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than \u20ac25.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Between \u20ac25.00 and \u20ac40.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"More than \u20ac40.00 but less than \u20ac55.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between \u20ac55.00 and \u20ac70.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than \u20ac70.00 but less than \u20ac90.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between \u20ac90.00 and \u20ac115.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than \u20ac115.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than \u20ac25.00","Between \u20ac25.00 and \u20ac40.00, inclusive","More than \u20ac40.00 but less than \u20ac55.00","Between \u20ac55.00 and \u20ac70.00, inclusive","More than \u20ac70.00 but less than \u20ac90.00","Between \u20ac90.00 and \u20ac115.00, inclusive","More than \u20ac115.00"],"target":"Less than \u20ac25.00"} | |
| {"Question":"How many software as a service (SaaS) companies will be founded in the US in 2023, according to Crunchbase?","Started_time":"2023-03-31","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"SaaS companies host applications and make them available to customers over the Internet (Digital Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Crunchbase (Crunchbase, parameters set in link). The filters should be set to 1) \"Headquarters Location\" to United States,\" 2) Industry\" set to \"SaaS,\" and 3) \"Custom Range Date\" set to \"1\/1\/2013 - 12\/31\/2023.\" Data will be accessed for resolution on 15 February 2024. As of 31 March 2023, Crunchbase reported that 170 SaaS companies were founded in the US in 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 80":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 80 and 160, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 160 but fewer than 260":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 260 and 380, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"More than 380 but fewer than 520":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"520 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 80","Between 80 and 160, inclusive","More than 160 but fewer than 260","Between 260 and 380, inclusive","More than 380 but fewer than 520","520 or more"],"target":"More than 380 but fewer than 520"} | |
| {"Question":"Who will win the special election for New York's 3rd Congressional District in 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-08","Closed_time":"2024-02-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Representative George Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives on 1 December 2023, creating a vacancy to be filled by a special election in early 2024 (CBS News, Politico, CBS New York).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"} | |
| {"Question":"When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?","Started_time":"2023-05-11","Closed_time":"2024-02-12","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Since President Saied consolidating power after dismissing parliament in 2021, Tunisia has faced a series of economic, political, and social problems (Al-Monitor, AP, The National). Whether or not Saied has fled Tunisia will be determined using credible open source media reporting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 12 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12 August 2023 and 11 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12 November 2023 and 11 February 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 12 February 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 12 August 2023","Between 12 August 2023 and 11 November 2023","Between 12 November 2023 and 11 February 2024","Not before 12 February 2024"],"target":"Not before 12 February 2024"} | |
| {"Question":"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LVIII in 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-08","Closed_time":"2024-02-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Super Bowl LVIII is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 in Las Vegas, NV (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Baltimore Ravens":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Buffalo Bills":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Dallas Cowboys":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Detroit Lions":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Jacksonville Jaguars":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Kansas City Chiefs":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58%"},"Miami Dolphins":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Philadelphia Eagles":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"San Francisco 49ers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Baltimore Ravens","Buffalo Bills","Dallas Cowboys","Detroit Lions","Jacksonville Jaguars","Kansas City Chiefs","Miami Dolphins","Philadelphia Eagles","San Francisco 49ers","Another team"],"target":"Kansas City Chiefs"} | |
| {"Question":"How many total international overnight guests will visit Dubai in 2023, according to the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism?","Started_time":"2023-02-02","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Tourism levels in Dubai have recovered from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, and has implemented new policies to attract for visitors to the emirate (BBC, Skift). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data from the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (Dubai Tourism). In 2021, 7.28 million total international overnight guests visited Dubai, while 16.73 million visited in 2019 (Dubai Tourism - December 2021 Report, Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report, Dubai Tourism - Research and Insights).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 10.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 10.0 and 13.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 13.0 but fewer than 16.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Between 16.0 and 19.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"More than 19 million but fewer than 22.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"22.0 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 10.0 million","Between 10.0 and 13.0 million, inclusive","More than 13.0 but fewer than 16.0 million","Between 16.0 and 19.0 million, inclusive","More than 19 million but fewer than 22.0 million","22.0 million or more"],"target":"Between 16.0 and 19.0 million, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"Will President Joe Biden win at least 80.0% of the vote in the 2024 Nevada Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2024-01-17","Closed_time":"2024-02-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are 13 Democratic candidates on the Nevada Democratic primary ballot, including President Joe Biden and Marianne Williamson (Nevada Secretary of State, KRNV). The Nevada Democratic primary is scheduled for 6 February 2024 (270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"In Donald Trump's appeal before the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit), will the DC Circuit rule that President Trump is immune from prosecution for the criminal charges against him in the DC District Court?","Started_time":"2024-01-05","Closed_time":"2024-02-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda","US Policy"],"Description":"After the US Supreme Court denied Trump's appeal for it to rule on his claims of presidential immunity that were denied by the district court, the DC Circuit is scheduled to hear oral arguments on 9 January 2024 (SCOTUSblog, AP, NPR). The DC Circuit is expected to hand down its decision in the coming months, but if it does not and the case is otherwise disposed (e.g., dismissal), the question will close as \"No.\" If the DC Circuit decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" If the DC Circuit rules that Trump is immune from prosecution for some, but not all, of the criminal charges, the question will close \"No.\" Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or announcement, including a rehearing en banc, are immaterial (Cornell).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will Nikol Pashinyan cease to be the prime minister of Armenia before 6 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-10-06","Closed_time":"2024-02-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Azerbaijan's ultimate conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with an ethnic Armenian majority, in September 2023 has put great pressure on the government in Yerevan (Politico, Al Jazeera, NEWS.am). Pashinyan staying on in a caretaker prime minister role subsequent with his resignation as prime minister would still count as Pashinyan ceasing to be prime minister (Constitution of Armenia, see Article 149, France 24).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"What percentage of the vote will President Joe Biden receive in the 2024 South Carolina Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2024-01-17","Closed_time":"2024-02-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are three candidates on the South Carolina Democratic primary ballot: President Joe Biden, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, and Marianne Williamson (South Carolina Democratic Party). The South Carolina Democratic primary is scheduled for 3 February 2024 (South Carolina Election Commission).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"At least 50.0%, but less than 60.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"At least 60.0%, but less than 70.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"At least 70.0%, but less than 80.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"At least 80.0%, but less than 90.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"90.0% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"}},"choices":["Less than 50.0%","At least 50.0%, but less than 60.0%","At least 60.0%, but less than 70.0%","At least 70.0%, but less than 80.0%","At least 80.0%, but less than 90.0%","90.0% or more"],"target":"90.0% or more"} | |
| {"Question":"Will Representative Dean Phillips cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 3 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-11-03","Closed_time":"2024-02-03","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips announced that he would challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination for president in 2024 (ABC News, Politico). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Phillips no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will President Joe Biden cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 3 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-07-21","Closed_time":"2024-02-03","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"President Biden announced in April 2023 that he was running for reelection, there's ongoing speculation that he may drop out of the race (CNN, Guardian). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Biden no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will Ukraine's Corruption Perceptions Index score rise in 2023 as compared to 2022, according to Transparency International?","Started_time":"2023-09-22","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As war continues in Ukraine, fights against corruption in the government continue (CBC, BBC, Guardian). The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is a measure of a country's perceived levels of public sector corruption (Transparency International). The scale runs from zero to 100, with 100 being the least corrupt. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using CPI data for Ukraine once published for 2023, expected in early 2024. In 2022, Ukraine had a score of 33, up by one point from 2021 (Transparency International - Ukraine).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"71%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly engage in physical combat in an officiated setting before 1 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-07-21","Closed_time":"2024-02-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"On 20 June 2023, Twitter owner Elon Musk apparently challenged Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to a cage match (Twitter, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, Politico). The match\/fight involving some form of physical combat must be viewable by the public (e.g., broadcast, physically present audience, pay-per-view) in real time with some form of official (e.g., referee, umpire) present and in putative control of the event to count. The physical combat must involve direct contact, and such contact made while wearing gloves, armor, or other gear\/clothing would count. Physical combat with the use of hand-held implements (e.g., clubs, axes, swords, spears, morning stars, flails, lances, hammers) would count, though combat solely with the use of projectile weapons (e.g., bows, crossbows, firearms, slings) would not count. Whether the match\/fight is staged or scripted is immaterial, and the involvement of an actual cage is not necessary to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"When will Apple announce the public release of a new generative artificial intelligence (AI) system in the US?","Started_time":"2023-07-28","Closed_time":"2024-02-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society"],"Description":"While Microsoft, Google, and others have released generative AI systems, Apple has yet to join them (CNBC, CNET, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, \"generative AI\" means a deep-learning model that can generate high-quality text, images, and\/or other content based on the data on which they were trained (IBM). Examples of generative AI systems that would qualify include ChatGPT, Bard, LLaMa, DALL-E 2, and Claude (Tech Monitor, OpenAI). An announced release of a system created or administered by a partnership with another firm or organization would count. Individually personalized systems or features would not count (e.g., TechCrunch). Providing limited availability for specific individuals (e.g., journalists, academics) or firms (e.g., Apple for AppleCare) alone would not count, and whether use of the AI requires payment is immaterial (Yahoo).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2023 and 30 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 December 2023 and 31 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 February 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2023","Between 1 October 2023 and 30 November 2023","Between 1 December 2023 and 31 January 2024","Not before 1 February 2024"],"target":"Not before 1 February 2024"} | |
| {"Question":"At close of business on 31 January 2024, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 13 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-09-22","Closed_time":"2024-01-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 30-31 January 2024.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-10","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"With US oil stockpiles in the SPR down 42% since President Biden took office, Republicans and Democrats are fighting over what to do next (Politico, The Hill, Department of Energy). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) when first released for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (EIA). For November 2022, ending stocks totaled 388,419 thousand barrels.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 330,000 thousand barrels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"More than 370,000 thousand barrels but less than 410,000 thousand barrels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 410,000 thousand barrels and 450,000 thousand barrels, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 450,000 thousand barrels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 330,000 thousand barrels","Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive","More than 370,000 thousand barrels but less than 410,000 thousand barrels","Between 410,000 thousand barrels and 450,000 thousand barrels, inclusive","More than 450,000 thousand barrels"],"target":"Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-23","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"While inventories improved in 2022, rising interest rates are putting pressure on US auto sales (Cox Automotive, PR Newswire, NASDAQ). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2023 data are first available (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 12.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12.5 million and 13.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 13.0 million but fewer than 13.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13.5 million and 14.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 14.5 million and 15.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 15.0 million but fewer than 15.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"More than 16.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 12.5 million","Between 12.5 million and 13.0 million, inclusive","More than 13.0 million but fewer than 13.5 million","Between 13.5 million and 14.0 million, inclusive","More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.5 million","Between 14.5 million and 15.0 million, inclusive","More than 15.0 million but fewer than 15.5 million","Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive","More than 16.0 million"],"target":"Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"Before 28 January 2024, will West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024?","Started_time":"2023-07-14","Closed_time":"2024-01-28","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Manchin has repeatedly floated the prospect that he may run for president in 2024 (NBC News, The Hill, Politico, NY1). Persons running for federal office in the US must register with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) upon raising or spending more than $5,000 in contributions or expenditures (FEC - Registration, FEC - Candidates). The question would close early if Manchin publicly announces that he will not run for US president in 2024.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?","Started_time":"2023-09-29","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"A new surge of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico has drawn new attention on US border security (US News & World Report, The Hill). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of October 2023 through December 2023 once data for December 2023 are first reported (CBP). Between calendar October 2022 and December 2022, CBP reported a total of 719,056 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question. Please note that calendar October 2023 through December 2023 falls within the US federal government fiscal year of 2024.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 200,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 200,000 and 350,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 350,000 but fewer than 500,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 500,000 and 650,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than 950,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 200,000","Between 200,000 and 350,000, inclusive","More than 350,000 but fewer than 500,000","Between 500,000 and 650,000, inclusive","More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000","Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive","More than 950,000"],"target":"More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000"} | |
| {"Question":"How will Donald Trump and Nikki Haley perform in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?","Started_time":"2024-01-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Donald Trump's dominant lead in the polls for the New Hampshire primary has faded as Nikki Haley rises in its primary polls (CNN, NBC News, FiveThirtyEight - NH Republican Primary Polls). The margin will be determined by taking the number of votes won by each pertinent candidate and dividing that by the total number of counted votes cast. The resulting percentage for a pertinent candidate will be subtracted from the resulting percentage for another pertinent candidate in order to determine the outcome. The New Hampshire Republican primary is scheduled for 23 January 2024 (WMUR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Nikki Haley will receive more votes than Donald Trump and win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, and win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of more than 5.0% but less than 10.0%, and win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Donald Trump will receive the more votes with a margin of more than 15.0% than Nikki Haley, and win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Another outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Nikki Haley will receive more votes than Donald Trump and win","Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, and win","Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of more than 5.0% but less than 10.0%, and win","Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win","Donald Trump will receive the more votes with a margin of more than 15.0% than Nikki Haley, and win","Another outcome"],"target":"Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-24","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy in 2023 (CBS News, CNBC, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in January 2024 (FRED, BEA - Release Schedule).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"Higher by 3.0% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 3.0%","Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive","Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%","Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive","Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%","Higher by 3.0% or more"],"target":"Higher by 3.0% or more"} | |
| {"Question":"How many more total Supercharger stations will Tesla report globally for the fourth quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?","Started_time":"2023-06-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment","US Policy"],"Description":"Tesla already has the largest network of EV chargers in the US, and both General Motors and Ford have announced that their EVs will be chargeable at Tesla stations starting in 2024 (Guardian, AP, Inside EVs). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: Tesla - Quarterly Results. Tesla's total number of Supercharger stations globally as of the fourth quarter of 2022 was 4,678 (Tesla - Q4 2022 Update, see page 7).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Between 1,000 and 1,300, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"More than 1,300 but fewer than 1,600":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Between 1,600 and 1,900, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 1,900 but fewer than 2,200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"2,200 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1,000","Between 1,000 and 1,300, inclusive","More than 1,300 but fewer than 1,600","Between 1,600 and 1,900, inclusive","More than 1,900 but fewer than 2,200","2,200 or more"],"target":"Between 1,000 and 1,300, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-21","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Tesla produced a record 343,830 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022, and production is expected to rise into 2023 (InsideEVs, Tesla Owners Online). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https:\/\/ir.tesla.com\/financial-information\/quarterly-results. Tesla's total deliveries of vehicles during the first three quarters of 2022 was 908,573 (Tesla - Q3 2022 Update, see page 7).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1.1 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 1.1 million and 1.4 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 1.4 million but fewer than 1.7 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.3 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 2.3 million and 2.6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 2.6 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1.1 million","Between 1.1 million and 1.4 million, inclusive","More than 1.4 million but fewer than 1.7 million","Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive","More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.3 million","Between 2.3 million and 2.6 million, inclusive","More than 2.6 million"],"target":"Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"How many employed persons in the US will be members of unions in 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?","Started_time":"2023-04-21","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the BLS for 2023, expected in early 2024 (BLS). To access the data, select only the box under \"Total\" under \"Members of unions(1)\" for the row \"Total, 16 years and over,\" then click the \"Retrieve data\" button under the table. In 2022, there were 14,285 thousand employed persons were members of unions, or 14.285 million.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 13.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13.8 million and 14.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Between 14.2 million and 14.4 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54%"},"More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"14.6 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 13.8 million","Between 13.8 million and 14.0 million, inclusive","More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.2 million","Between 14.2 million and 14.4 million, inclusive","More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million","14.6 million or more"],"target":"More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million"} | |
| {"Question":"In how many US jurisdictions will Donald Trump have any criminal charges outstanding as of the day before the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?","Started_time":"2023-06-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-23","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As of 16 June 2023, former President Donald Trump is facing criminal charges in two jurisdictions: the state of New York and federal criminal charges in the Southern District of Florida as an investigation continues in Georgia (Manhattan District Attorney, Southern District of Florida, NBC News, Politico). For the purposes of this question, \"US jurisdiction\" means either the US federal government, including the District of Columbia, or the government of any of the 50 states. The outcome will be determined based on the status of criminal charges as of 8:00PM PT the day before the New Hampshire Republican primary, currently expected in early 2024 (Ballotpedia). The close date for this question will be changed once the official primary date is set. If Trump is deceased during the question's open period, the question will close \"0,\" and criminal charges would be considered to have ceased to be outstanding upon the dismissal of or entry of a verdict on those charges and irrespective of any appeals.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"3":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"3"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the closing value of the US dollar\/Russian ruble exchange rate on 19 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-07-14","Closed_time":"2024-01-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"While the ruble showed resilience in the early months of Russia's war in Ukraine, the currency has fallen considerably in mid-2023 (CNN, Newsweek, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 70.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 70.00 and 85.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher than 85.00 but lower than 100.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Between 100.00 and 115.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 115.00 but lower than 130.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"130.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 70.00","Between 70.00 and 85.00, inclusive","Higher than 85.00 but lower than 100.00","Between 100.00 and 115.00, inclusive","More than 115.00 but lower than 130.00","130.00 or more"],"target":"Higher than 85.00 but lower than 100.00"} | |
| {"Question":"What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of landed immigrants in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To adjust the date range, see the year drop-down menus under \"Reference period,\" and click \"Apply.\" Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers in the labour force who are landed immigrants will be determined by dividing the number of \"Landed Immigrants\" by the \"Total Population\" figure. In 2021, landed immigrants comprised 32.04% (=910.4\/2841.2) of the BC labour force.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 32.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"More than 33.0% but less than 34.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Between 34.0% and 35.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than 35.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 32.0%","Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive","More than 33.0% but less than 34.0%","Between 34.0% and 35.0%, inclusive","More than 35.0%"],"target":"Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-28","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (US Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for \"Housing Units Started.\" In the file, find the \"StartsUA\" sheet. The total number of starts in 2021 was 1,601.1 thousand, or 1,601,100.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1.30 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 1.75 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1.30 million","Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive","More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million","Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive","More than 1.75 million"],"target":"Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Retail sales is a measure of consumer demand for finished goods in an economy (Investopedia, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using US Census Bureau Retail Trade and Food Services data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (FRED). In December 2022, the monthly percentage change in US retail sales was -0.7%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down by more than 0.8%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Down by up to 0.8%, but less than 0.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"Up by at least 0.8%, but less than 1.6%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Up by at least 1.6%, but less than 2.4%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Up by 2.4% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Down by more than 0.8%","Down by up to 0.8%, but less than 0.0%","Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8%","Up by at least 0.8%, but less than 1.6%","Up by at least 1.6%, but less than 2.4%","Up by 2.4% or more"],"target":"Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8%"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-04","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Various forecasts for China's economic growth in 2023 have been cut as the country deals with various economic issues (CNBC, CNN). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in January 2024 (Trading Economics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Higher by less than 3.0% or lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher by at least 3.0%, but less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Higher by at least 4.0%, but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"Higher by at least 5.0%, but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Higher by at least 6.0%, but less than 7.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Higher by 7.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Higher by less than 3.0% or lower","Higher by at least 3.0%, but less than 4.0%","Higher by at least 4.0%, but less than 5.0%","Higher by at least 5.0%, but less than 6.0%","Higher by at least 6.0%, but less than 7.0%","Higher by 7.0% or more"],"target":"Higher by at least 5.0%, but less than 6.0%"} | |
| {"Question":"Will the \"natural growth rate\" of the population of China in 2023 be negative?","Started_time":"2023-11-17","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Deaths outnumbered births in China for the first time on record in 2022, the consequence of a long-expected demographic shift in the country that the government is working to address (BBC, CNBC, National Statistics Bureau of China). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using natural growth rate (i.e., the birth rate minus the death rate over a given period) data as published by the Chinese government for 2023, expected in early 2024. Because your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics website, we have included the birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate for the past ten years:","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the estimated 12-month forward earnings of the S&P 500 on 29 December 2023? - 2023","Started_time":"2023-04-12","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 150":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than or equal to 150 but less than 175":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than or equal to 175 but less than 200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than or equal to 200 but less than 215":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than or equal to 215 but less than 225":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"More than or equal to 225 but less than 240":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"More than or equal to 240 but less than 265":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than or equal to 265 but less than 290":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than or equal to 290 but less than 315":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than or equal to 315":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 150","More than or equal to 150 but less than 175","More than or equal to 175 but less than 200","More than or equal to 200 but less than 215","More than or equal to 215 but less than 225","More than or equal to 225 but less than 240","More than or equal to 240 but less than 265","More than or equal to 265 but less than 290","More than or equal to 290 but less than 315","More than or equal to 315"],"target":"More than or equal to 215 but less than 225"} | |
| {"Question":"When will US legislation appropriating new funding for government and\/or military assistance to Ukraine become law?","Started_time":"2023-10-20","Closed_time":"2024-01-16","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"While President Biden and many members of Congress had pushed for more Ukraine funding to be included in the continuing resolution negotiated to prevent a government shutdown, none was included (CNBC, Colorado Public Radio). Legislation that only extends preexisting funding for Ukraine (e.g., a continuing resolution without new funding) would not count (Government Accountability Office, Congressional Research Service).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 19 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 19 November 2023 and 17 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 18 December 2023 and 15 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Not before 16 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"}},"choices":["Before 19 November 2023","Between 19 November 2023 and 17 December 2023","Between 18 December 2023 and 15 January 2024","Not before 16 January 2024"],"target":"Not before 16 January 2024"} | |
| {"Question":"Will Sen. Robert Menendez and\/or Rep. George Santos cease to hold their respective seats in the US Congress before 15 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-10-20","Closed_time":"2024-01-15","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics"],"Description":"Democratic Senator Menendez is facing a growing list of federal charges related to bribery and corruption, while Republican Representative George Santos is dealing with a slew of charges related to fraud (Department of Justice - Menendez Charged, AP, Department of Justice - Santos Charged, NBC News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Sen. Robert Menendez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only Rep. George Santos":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Yes, both Sen. Robert Menendez and Rep. George Santos":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Sen. Robert Menendez","Yes, only Rep. George Santos","Yes, both Sen. Robert Menendez and Rep. George Santos","No"],"target":"Yes, only Rep. George Santos"} | |
| {"Question":"Between 22 September 2023 and 14 January 2024, will Donald Trump be found in contempt of court by a judge presiding over any US criminal proceedings for which he is a defendant?","Started_time":"2023-09-22","Closed_time":"2024-01-15","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As former President Trump faces criminal charges in various jurisdictions, he is under various orders from courts to refrain from making certain comments against prosecutors and others (Politico - Trump Criminal Investigations Cases Tracker, US News & World Report, Politico, NBC News, Cornell - Gag Order). A finding of either civil contempt or criminal contempt in pertinent criminal proceedings would count, and the proceedings may be in either state or federal court (Cornell - Contempt of Court). A contempt finding in civil cases would not count (e.g., US News & World Report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will Donald Trump cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination for US president before 15 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-07-28","Closed_time":"2024-01-15","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Former President Trump announced in November 2022 that he was running for president amid a slew of legal troubles (US News & World Report, BBC). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Trump no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo be inaugurated as President of Guatemala before 16 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-11-10","Closed_time":"2024-01-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo won the August 2023 Guatemalan presidential election and is due to be inaugurated on 14 January 2024, but he is facing various obstacles from state institutions (CNN, Axios, El Pa\u00eds, France 24, US Mission to Org. of American States).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"Will federal legislation waiving Section 230 immunity with regard to the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) become law before 12 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-06-23","Closed_time":"2024-01-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The US Congress is considering various measures to regulate the growth and use of AI, including waiving immunity under Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 for generative AI (Axios, US News & World Report, Senate.gov - Josh Hawley). Section 230 is a statute that protects social media and other companies from liability for content their users post (The Verge, The Conversation, Cornell).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.32%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.68%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will a UN member state other than the US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-15","Closed_time":"2024-01-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (ABC News, US News & World Report, BBC). The GCC is an international body comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (GCC). \"Stray\" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"69%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-15","Closed_time":"2024-01-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (ABC News, US News & World Report, BBC). \"Stray\" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"74%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?","Started_time":"2023-09-29","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Starting in August 2022, the Somali government started a total war against Al-Shabaab, resulting in the most comprehensive territorial gains since the mid-2010s (International Crisis Group). Various factors, including a shortage of forces, have limited activity against Al-Shabaab in 2023, which has raised fears that the Islamist group may regroup and retake control of some territory (ACLED - Somalia Situation Update May 2023). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the \"EVENT DATE\" range as appropriate, (2) for \"EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for \"REGION,\" select only \"Somalia\" under \"Eastern Africa,\" (4) for \"FATALITIES,\" leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for \"ACTOR TYPE,\" select all, (6) for \"INTERACTION,\" select all, and click \"APPLY FILTERS.\" Click \"EVENT COUNT\" above the chart and change the selection to \"FATALITIES.\" As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 1,502 total fatalities in the second quarter of 2023 in Somalia (1,122 attributed to \"Battles,\" 108 attributed to \"Violence against civilians,\" 269 attributed to \"Explosions\/Remote violence,\" 3 attributed to \"Strategic developments,\" and none attributed to \"Riots\" or \"Protests\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 2,400":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Between 2,400 and 3,200, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 3,200 but fewer than 4,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 4,000 and 4,800, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"More than 4,800 but fewer than 5,600":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"5,600 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 2,400","Between 2,400 and 3,200, inclusive","More than 3,200 but fewer than 4,000","Between 4,000 and 4,800, inclusive","More than 4,800 but fewer than 5,600","5,600 or more"],"target":"Fewer than 2,400"} | |
| {"Question":"Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total violent conflict events will occur in Northern Mali, according to ACLED?","Started_time":"2023-09-29","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"MINUSMA, a UN peacekeeping mission established to stabilize Northern Mali after a Tuareg uprising in 2012, was ordered to leave the country by its military government in mid-2023, which has raised fears of new violence (France 24, MINUSMA, International Crisis Group, UN - Africa Renewal). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the \"EVENT DATE\" range as appropriate, (2) for \"EVENT TYPE, select only \"Battles,\" \"Violence against civilians,\" and \"Explosions\/Remote violence,\" (3) for \"REGION,\" select only \"Gao,\" \"Kidal,\" and \"Tombouctou\" under \"Mali\" under \"Western Africa,\" (4) for \"FATALITIES,\" leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for \"ACTOR TYPE,\" select all, (6) for \"INTERACTION,\" select all, and click \"APPLY FILTERS.\" As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 99 total qualifying events in the second quarter of 2023 in Northern Mali (19 \"Battles,\" 72 events of \"Violence against civilians,\" and 8 \"Explosions\/Remote violence\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 100":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Between 100 and 125, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 125 but fewer than 150":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 150 and 175, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 175 but fewer than 200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 200 and 225, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"More than 225":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 100","Between 100 and 125, inclusive","More than 125 but fewer than 150","Between 150 and 175, inclusive","More than 175 but fewer than 200","Between 200 and 225, inclusive","More than 225"],"target":"Between 200 and 225, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-04","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Inflation in the US is expected to cool in 2023 versus 2022, with some discussing the potential for deflation (Morningstar, CBS News, CNBC, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for December 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for \"All items,\" expected in January 2024 (BLS). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down by more than 0.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Up by 6.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Down by more than 0.0%","Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive","Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%","Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive","Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0%","Up by 6.0% or more"],"target":"Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"Will Presidents Claudine Gay of Harvard University and\/or Sally Kornbluth of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) cease to be the presidents of their respective institutions before 11 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-11","Closed_time":"2024-01-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics"],"Description":"Calls for the presidents of Harvard and MIT to resign have continued in the wake of early December 2023 US House hearings on antisemitism on college campuses, with Liz Magill of the University of Pennsylvania having already resigned on 9 December 2023 (USA Today, CNN, NPR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Claudine Gay":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Yes, only Sally Kornbluth":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both Claudine Gay and Sally Kornbluth":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Claudine Gay","Yes, only Sally Kornbluth","Yes, both Claudine Gay and Sally Kornbluth","No"],"target":"Yes, only Claudine Gay"} | |
| {"Question":"When will new federal legislation enabling the executive branch to ban or prohibit TikTok from operating in the US become law?","Started_time":"2023-03-24","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Entertainment","Foreign Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"On 7 March 2023, a bipartisan group of senators introduced the RESTRICT Act, legislation designed to empower the executive branch to, among other things, prohibit companies from certain countries from performing transactions in the US (US News & World Report, NBC News, Sen. Mark Warner, TechCrunch, Congress.gov - S.686). The date the legislation would take effect and whether TikTok is actually banned would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 11 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11 August 2023 and 31 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 11 August 2023","Between 11 August 2023 and 31 December 2023","Not before 1 January 2024"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2024"} | |
| {"Question":"Will an end to diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and\/or the UAE be officially announced before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-10-13","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As the Israeli conflict in the Gaza Strip escalates after attacks in southern Israel in early October 2023, there are concerns that diplomatic relations between Israel and various Arab states could suffer (Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, AP, New Arab). The expulsion or recalling of some individuals alone would not count (e.g., AP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-30","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"The US is entering 2023 with a third year of La Ni\u00f1a and drought affecting various parts of the country (FOX Weather, San Francisco Standard, NIFC - Outlooks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2021, reported wildfires consumed 7,125,643 acres in the US (NIFC Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2021, NIFC - Wildfires and Acres).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 5.0 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between 5.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 6.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 8.0 million and 9.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 9.5 million but fewer than 11.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11.0 million and 12.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 12.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 5.0 million","Between 5.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive","More than 6.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million","Between 8.0 million and 9.5 million, inclusive","More than 9.5 million but fewer than 11.0 million","Between 11.0 million and 12.5 million, inclusive","More than 12.5 million"],"target":"Fewer than 5.0 million"} | |
| {"Question":"Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?","Started_time":"2023-11-10","Closed_time":"2024-01-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The two semifinal games are scheduled for 1 January 2024, and the national championship game is scheduled for 8 January 2024 in Houston, Texas (NCAA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Alabama Crimson Tide":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Florida State Seminoles":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Georgia Bulldogs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Michigan Wolverines":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Ohio State Buckeyes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Oregon Ducks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Texas Longhorns":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Washington Huskies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Alabama Crimson Tide","Florida State Seminoles","Georgia Bulldogs","Michigan Wolverines","Ohio State Buckeyes","Oregon Ducks","Texas Longhorns","Washington Huskies","Another team"],"target":"Michigan Wolverines"} | |
| {"Question":"Which NFL quarterback will throw for the most touchdowns in the 2023 regular season?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2024-01-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"NFL Player Passing Stats 2023\" data as reported by ESPN (ESPN). In the event of a tie, the quarterback who threw for the most yards per game will be considered to have thrown for the most touchdowns, followed by completion percentage (CMP%). The team for which each named quarterback was due to start as of the launch of this question is in parentheses, but the team for whom any quarterback is playing is immaterial to the resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Patrick Mahomes (KC Chiefs)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Justin Herbert (LA Chargers)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another quarterback":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Patrick Mahomes (KC Chiefs)","Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)","Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)","Justin Herbert (LA Chargers)","Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets)","Another quarterback"],"target":"Another quarterback"} | |
| {"Question":"Which NFL team will win the AFC East division in the 2023 season?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2024-01-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Buffalo Bills":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64%"},"Miami Dolphins":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"New England Patriots":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New York Jets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Buffalo Bills","Miami Dolphins","New England Patriots","New York Jets"],"target":"Buffalo Bills"} | |
| {"Question":"Will \"Barbie\" win more Golden Globes than \"Oppenheimer?\"","Started_time":"2023-12-22","Closed_time":"2024-01-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Barbie received the most Golden Globe nominations for 2024 with nine (three in the same category of Best Original Song - Motion Picture), and Oppenheimer came in second with eight (BBC). The awards ceremony is scheduled for 7 January 2024 (Golden Globes).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-13","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for \"Total arrivals\" on its Mediterranean Situation page (UNHCR - Mediterranean Situation). In 2022, a total of 159,410 arrived in Europe (sea arrivals to Italy, Cyprus, and Malta, and both sea and land arrivals to Greece and Spain (including the Canary Islands)).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"Between 350,000 and 550,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 550,000 but fewer than 800,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"800,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 100,000","Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive","More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000","Between 350,000 and 550,000, inclusive","More than 550,000 but fewer than 800,000","800,000 or more"],"target":"More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Gasoline prices in the US reached 10-month highs in August 2023 as oil prices rise (CNN, The Hill). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the spot price per barrel per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $60.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $60.00 and $70.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than $70.00 but less than $80.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Between $80.00 and $90.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than $90.00 but less than $100.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $100.00 and $110.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $110.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $60.00","Between $60.00 and $70.00, inclusive","More than $70.00 but less than $80.00","Between $80.00 and $90.00, inclusive","More than $90.00 but less than $100.00","Between $100.00 and $110.00, inclusive","More than $110.00"],"target":"More than $70.00 but less than $80.00"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-19","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"While the US unemployment rate in April 2023 tied for the lowest in 70 years, there are signals that the labor market is cooling amid general recession fears (US News & World Report, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics when first released, expected in January 2024 (BLS).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 3.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5.0% or higher, but lower than 5.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6.0% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 3.5%","3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%","4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.5%","4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.0%","5.0% or higher, but lower than 5.5%","5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.0%","6.0% or higher"],"target":"3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%"} | |
| {"Question":"Will the US civilian labor force participation rate be higher in December 2023 than it was in October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The labor force participation rate has been trending down since the beginning of the 21st century (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once figures for December 2023 are first released, expected in January 2024 (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"Oil prices have fallen from historic highs reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the Biden administration is pushing for more domestic production (Axios, US News & World Report, NASDAQ). The outcome will be determined using the \"4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil\" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA). A weekly figure must have its \"End Date\" between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023 to count. On 6 December 2022, the EIA forecasted domestic production would increase to 12.34 million barrels per day in 2023 (EIA Short-term Energy Outlook - December 2022).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 12,000 thousand b\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12,000 and 12,400 thousand b\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 12,400 but less than 12,800 thousand b\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12,800 and 13,200 thousand b\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"More than 13,200 thousand b\/d":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"}},"choices":["Less than 12,000 thousand b\/d","Between 12,000 and 12,400 thousand b\/d, inclusive","More than 12,400 but less than 12,800 thousand b\/d","Between 12,800 and 13,200 thousand b\/d, inclusive","More than 13,200 thousand b\/d"],"target":"More than 13,200 thousand b\/d"} | |
| {"Question":"What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of workers 55 years and older in December 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To retrieve data for a specific month, see the month and year drop-down menus under \"Reference period,\" and click \"Apply.\" Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers 55 years and older who are in the labour force will be determined by dividing the \"Labour force\" figure for \"55 years and older\" by the \"Labour force\" figure for \"15 years and over\" for December 2023. In October 2022, workers 55 years and older comprised 21.87% (=630.8\/2884.6) of the BC labour force.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 20.0% and 21.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 21.0% but less than 22.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Between 22.0% and 23.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"More than 23.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Less than 20.0%","Between 20.0% and 21.0%, inclusive","More than 21.0% but less than 22.0%","Between 22.0% and 23.0%, inclusive","More than 23.0%"],"target":"More than 21.0% but less than 22.0%"} | |
| {"Question":"Between November 2022 and December 2023, will workers 15 to 24 years old who are in the labour force of British Columbia (BC) comprise more than 14.6% of the total BC labour force in any month?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To retrieve data for a specific month, see the month and year drop-down menus under \"Reference period,\" and click \"Apply.\" Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers 15 to 24 years old who are in the labour force will be determined by dividing the \"Labour force\" figure for \"15 to 24 years\" by the \"Labour force\" figure for \"15 years and over\" in the relevant month. In October 2022, workers 15 to 24 years old comprised 13.62% (=393.0\/2884.6) of the BC labour force.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.30%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.70%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda","Former President Donald Trump announced that he will seek the Republican nomination for US president in 2024 (The Hill). FiveThirtyEight Founder Nate Silver speculated on Twitter whether Trump is actually running for reasons other than winning the 2024 presidential election (Twitter - Nate Silver). \"Early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president\" are the four states scheduled to hold Republican primaries or caucuses first. The list of pertinent states is subject to change depending on the official finalization of the schedule by the jurisdictions involved. The list will be finalized for this question no later than 31 August 2023, and if there is more than one primary scheduled for the date on which the fourth would fall, the primary for the state with the largest population would be included. For a Trump presidential campaign rally to count, it must be open to the public (though not necessarily free to attend), have reported attendance of at least 1,000, and have Donald Trump speak at the event in person (e.g., WUWM, Telegraph Herald)."],"Description":"*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read the question description carefully before forecasting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"None":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 1 and 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Between 7 and 12":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"},"Between 13 and 18":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"19 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["None","Between 1 and 6","Between 7 and 12","Between 13 and 18","19 or more"],"target":"Between 13 and 18"} | |
| {"Question":"When will Nikki Haley surpass either Ron DeSantis or Donald Trump in 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?","Started_time":"2023-11-08","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has been rising slowly but steadily in the race for the Republican nomination (CNN). The question will be suspended on 12 January 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to \"3M\"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data for 12 January 2024 are first reported, if necessary. If either DeSantis or Trump ceases to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, the question will close as of the date the candidate ceased.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 30 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 30 November 2023 and 21 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 22 December 2023 and 12 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"Not before 13 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"}},"choices":["Before 30 November 2023","Between 30 November 2023 and 21 December 2023","Between 22 December 2023 and 12 January 2024","Not before 13 January 2024"],"target":"Between 22 December 2023 and 12 January 2024"} | |
| {"Question":"How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Amidst higher interest rates, job openings in the US have fallen in 2023 but are still at historically elevated levels (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (FRED, BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule). As of 18 August 2023, the total number of job openings reported for November 2022 was 10,746 (in thousands), or 10.746 million.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 7.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 8.0 million but fewer than 8.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"More than 9.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Between 9.5 million and 10.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"More than 10.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 7.5 million","Between 7.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive","More than 8.0 million but fewer than 8.5 million","Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive","More than 9.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million","Between 9.5 million and 10.0 million, inclusive","More than 10.0 million"],"target":"Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"The Federal Reserve releases daily bilateral exchange rate data on a weekly basis (Federal Reserve). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Federal Reserve data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected on 2 January 2024 (FRED). On 10 August 2023, the spot exchange rate value was 1.1016.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 1.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between 1.000 and 1.040, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Higher than 1.040 but lower than 1.080":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"Higher than 1.120 but lower than 1.160":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 1.160 and 1.200, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 1.200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Lower than 1.000","Between 1.000 and 1.040, inclusive","Higher than 1.040 but lower than 1.080","Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive","Higher than 1.120 but lower than 1.160","Between 1.160 and 1.200, inclusive","Higher than 1.200"],"target":"Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive"} | |
| {"Question":"What will be the price of bitcoin on 31 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"From January 2023 to mid-August 2023, bitcoin has nearly doubled in value in US dollar terms amid continued pushes for a spot bitcoin ETF in the US (Cointelegraph). The question will be suspended on 30 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Coinbase price data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 17 August 2023, the price of a bitcoin was $26,600.98.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $18,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $18,500 and $21,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $21,000 but less than $23,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $23,500 and $26,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $26,000 but less than $28,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $28,500 and $31,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $31,000 but less than $33,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $33,500 and $36,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than $36,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"}},"choices":["Less than $18,500","Between $18,500 and $21,000, inclusive","More than $21,000 but less than $23,500","Between $23,500 and $26,000, inclusive","More than $26,000 but less than $28,500","Between $28,500 and $31,000, inclusive","More than $31,000 but less than $33,500","Between $33,500 and $36,000, inclusive","More than $36,000"],"target":"More than $36,000"} | |
| {"Question":"As of 1 January 2024, how many US states will have banned by law natural gas appliances in all new residential construction?","Started_time":"2023-05-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Environment","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"In May 2023, the state of New York became the first state to ban \"fossil-fuel equipment\" in some new buildings starting in 2026 and others in 2029 (USA Today, CNN, NY State Assembly - A03006C, see \"Part RR\"). The date the bans would take effect would be immaterial, and bans with limited exceptions (e.g., for buildings without access to an electrical grid) would count. Bans imposed by political subdivisions of states (e.g., cities, counties) would be immaterial (Building Decarbonization Coalition). A ban would have to include single and multifamily occupancy buildings, and if a state imposed then repealed a ban as of 1 January 2024, the repealed ban would not count (Tech 24 Construction).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"1"} | |
| {"Question":"Will UN-sanctioned national elections be held in Libya in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-28","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Abdoulaye Bathily, head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, has said that elections in the war-torn country are possible in 2023, though obstacles remain (UN Security Council, Libya Herald, US Institute of Peace). The holding of either presidential or parliamentary elections would count. The question would close early upon an official announcement from the UN that elections will not take place in 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.78%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.22%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen or a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-04-21","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Environment","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Drought, conflict, and other factors have left millions in Yemen and the Horn of Africa facing potential famine (NPR, PBS, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the countries in the Horn of Africa are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda (Britannica). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11.22%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88.78%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will the Supreme Court of Israel outright strike down the 2023 amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary regarding the \"reasonableness\" standard?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 24 July 2023, Israel's parliament, the Knesset, passed an amendment to a Basic Law, a quasi-constitutional provision of Israeli law, that would prohibit the Supreme Court (also known as the High Court of Israel when exercising original jurisdiction) from blocking decisions made by the government regarding appointments and administrative matters on the basis of \"reasonableness\" (CNN, Israel Policy Forum - Judicial Legislation Tracker, American Jewish Committee, Brookings Institution, Knesset - Basic Law: The Judiciary). The hearing on eight challenges to the amendment to the Basic Law is scheduled for 12 September 2023 (Supreme Court of Israel [in Hebrew], ABC News). The question will close upon the handing down of the court's decision on the case or other final action (e.g., dismissal), and a decision on any of the petitions before the court that outright strikes down the amendment would count. If the court does not reach a decision on the challenges to the amendment before 1 December 2023, the suspend date will be extended.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"} | |
| {"Question":"Will the full US House of Representatives vote on impeaching President Joe Biden before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-09-15","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy announced 12 September 2023 that he was directing committees to open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden (Twitter, Axios). Only votes by the full House of Representatives will count (Congressional Research Service). The question will not close early upon a full House vote to not impeach President Biden.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the full House will vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, but the full House will not vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the full House will vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden","Yes, but the full House will not vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) authorize SpaceX to launch a third flight of Starship Super Heavy before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-11-24","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Policy"],"Description":"After a more successful, though not completely successful, second test of SpaceX's Starship on 18 November 2023, Elon Musk has said that they could be ready for a third test within three to four weeks (Space.com, Isp.page, Payload, Space.com). License authorization for the second flight was given on 15 November 2023 (X [fka Twitter], US News & World Report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will the US National Mediation Board (NMB) report that a \"cooling off\" period has begun for an airline pilot union and a major airline engaged in contract negotiations before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-05-26","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Politics"],"Description":"While American Airlines reached a tentative deal with its pilot union in May 2023, negotiations were still ongoing for United and Southwest (CNBC). Under the procedures laid out in the Railway Labor Act, which also governs airlines, the parties to a labor negotiation enter a \"cooling-off\" period once the National Mediation Board determines that mediation has failed to produce an agreement and either or both parties reject binding arbitration (Freight Waves, NMB - Collective Bargaining Flow Chart, NMB - Press Release re Railroad Workers Negotiations). For the purposes of this question, a \"major airline\" is Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United Airlines, or Southwest Airlines.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.40%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.60%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in continental Europe either directed or executed by one or more Saheli jihadist groups resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-04-14","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by EU law (European Council, see \"EU definition of terrorism\"). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count. Whether a CCTA is either directed or executed by one or more Saheli jihadist groups will be determined using credible, open-source reporting (UN - List of Sahel Countries, CSIS). \"Continental Europe\" includes the territory on the continent of any country that is part of the European single market (Gov.uk - Countries in the EU and EEA, does not include the UK).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.97%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.03%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will American journalist Evan Gershkovich leave Russia?","Started_time":"2023-07-14","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested in Russia on 29 March 2023 for espionage, a claim he denies (ABC News). US officials have said that there have been discussions with Russia on a possible prisoner exchange (The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"How many of the 50 largest commercial banks in the US will fail in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-10","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","US Policy"],"Description":"The failure of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 has sent shock waves through financial markets (FDIC, CNBC, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the 50 largest commercial banks in the US are the top 50 as listed by the Federal Reserve as of 31 December 2022 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, a bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcomes. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"3"} | |
| {"Question":"Will federal legislation reducing or eliminating clean hydrogen and\/or carbon sequestration tax credits become law before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-05-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"As part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) signed by President Biden in 2022, tax credits were created for the production of clean hydrogen and expanded for carbon sequestration, but Republicans have proposed the repeal of clean hydrogen tax credits and discussed changing carbon sequestration tax credits (The Hill, Resources for the Future, Brownstein, 26 U.S. Code \u00a7 45V - Clean Hydrogen, 26 U.S. Code \u00a7 45Q - Carbon Sequestration). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial, and pertinent changes to sections other than 45V and 45Q that would reduce or eliminate clean hydrogen and\/or carbon sequestration tax credits in terms of amount or duration would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only clean hydrogen tax credits":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Yes, only carbon sequestration tax credits":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, both clean hydrogen and carbon sequestration tax credits":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"}},"choices":["Yes, only clean hydrogen tax credits","Yes, only carbon sequestration tax credits","Yes, both clean hydrogen and carbon sequestration tax credits","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will Disney publicly announce an agreement to sell all of its ownership stake in the streaming service Hulu?","Started_time":"2023-03-03","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Entertainment"],"Description":"Disney currently owns two-thirds of Hulu, with Comcast owning the remaining third and each having options to compel the other to buy or sell their stakes in the company in January 2024 (Hollywood Reporter, CNBC, SEC). The effective date of a sale would be immaterial, but the buyer or buyers must be party to the agreement but not necessarily named.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.78%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91.22%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will all four reactor units at the Barakah nuclear power plant have begun commercial operation?","Started_time":"2023-02-02","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Construction began on the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in 2012, with two of its four reactors having already begun commercial operations (Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, NUCNET - 6 April 2021, NUCNET - 24 March 2022). As of the launch of this question, the third reactor was nearing commercial operation, while construction on the fourth and final was nearing completion (NUCNET - 13 December 2022, Yonhap News Agency). Whether commerical operations are stopped or suspended after beginning would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.46%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.54%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin have each brought up the potential for peace talks (NPR, Axios). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. An acting president under the constitution of the relevant country would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.31%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.69%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-13","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The last federal shutdown occurred in December 2018 to January 2019, and current appropriations would expire on 30 September 2023 (Congressional Research Service, ABC News, H.R.2617). For the purposes of this question, a \"shutdown of the US federal government\" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation. A partial shutdown would count (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.06%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.94%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will Rishi Sunak cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Rishi Sunak was appointed as the UK's prime minister on 25 October 2022, the third UK PM in 2022 (BBC, CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9.30%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.70%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"} | |
| {"Question":"When will a new parliamentary election be called in Canada?","Started_time":"2023-02-01","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"There is speculation that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau may call for early parliamentary elections in 2023 (Politico, CBC). For early elections to be called, the Governor General, usually at the request of the prime minister, must dissolve parliament and issue election writs (Elections Canada, Twitter - Governor General of Canada, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Dissolving Parliament, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Issuing Election Writs). A by-election would not count (Elections Canada).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 July 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2023 and 31 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Not before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Before 1 July 2023","Between 1 July 2023 and 31 December 2023","Not before 1 January 2024"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2024"} | |
| {"Question":"When will a ride-hailing service open to the public, which uses autonomous vehicles, be launched and\/or tested on public roads in Dubai with passengers?","Started_time":"2022-11-08","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Dubai aims to be a leading location in the deployment of autonomous vehicles and has an agreement with Cruise for the deployment of a ride-hailing service by 2023, with mapping and testing commencing in July 2022 (Dubai Roads and Transport Authority, The National). The service, while operating or testing, must include members of the public as passengers to count. A service that operates along a fixed route (e.g., shuttles) would not count. A service involving back-up drivers present in the vehicle would not count, but a service involving remote back-up operators would count. A qualifying service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use would count, and payment for service is not required.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2023 and 30 April 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Not before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2023","Between 1 January 2023 and 30 April 2023","Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023","Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023","Not before 1 January 2024"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2024"} | |