{"Question":"Will Representative Dean Phillips cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 9 June 2024?","Started_time":"2024-02-09","Closed_time":"2024-03-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips has continued his challenge to President Biden's quest for the 2024 Democratic nomination despite overwhelming odds (USA Today). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Phillips no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will Nikki Haley cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination for US president?","Started_time":"2024-01-22","Closed_time":"2024-03-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Haley is pushing hard to stay in the race for the Republican nomination as endorsements for Trump add up (ABC News, CBS News). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Haley no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that she is fully suspending her campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 6 March 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Between 6 March 2024 and 18 April 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"Between 19 April 2024 and 1 June 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Between 2 June 2024 and 14 July 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Not before 15 July 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"}},"choices":["Before 6 March 2024","Between 6 March 2024 and 18 April 2024","Between 19 April 2024 and 1 June 2024","Between 2 June 2024 and 14 July 2024","Not before 15 July 2024"],"target":"Between 6 March 2024 and 18 April 2024"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the vote will Rep. Dean Phillips receive in the 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary?","Started_time":"2024-02-16","Closed_time":"2024-03-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With Marianne Williamson dropping out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, the final noteworthy candidate competing against President Biden is Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips (Politico, Ballotpedia). The Minnesota Democratic primary is scheduled for 5 March 2024 (270 to Win, Minnesota Public Radio).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"At least 5.0%, but less than 10.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"At least 10.0%, but less than 15.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"At least 15.0%, but less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"20.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 5.0%","At least 5.0%, but less than 10.0%","At least 10.0%, but less than 15.0%","At least 15.0%, but less than 20.0%","20.0% or more"],"target":"At least 5.0%, but less than 10.0%"}
{"Question":"Will a Republican place in the top two in the primary for the special US Senate election for California in 2024?","Started_time":"2024-01-05","Closed_time":"2024-03-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Polls indicate that Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is leading the race for California's nonpartisan primary to fill the Senate seat vacated due to the death of Dianne Feinstein, but Republican Steve Garvey has been consistently polling well (KTLA, Politico). The nonpartisan primary is scheduled for 5 March 2024 (Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 9 April 2024, will Senator Krysten Sinema publicly announce whether she is running in the US Senate election for Arizona in 2024?","Started_time":"2024-01-05","Closed_time":"2024-03-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Krysten Sinema, who was first elected to the US Senate in 2018 as a Democrat and subsequently became an independent, has not announced whether she will run for reelection (Axios, NBC News). Whether she announces that she will seek a particular party's nomination is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and she will announce that she is running":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Yes, and she will announce that she is not running":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"}},"choices":["Yes, and she will announce that she is running","Yes, and she will announce that she is not running","No"],"target":"Yes, and she will announce that she is not running"}
{"Question":"What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 5 March 2024, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?","Started_time":"2023-11-24","Closed_time":"2024-03-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Gas prices in the US fell throughout the fall of 2024, but upside risks remain (CNBC, The Hill). The question will be suspended on 4 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 5 March 2024 (AAA, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $2.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.00 and $2.45, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $2.45 but less than $2.80":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.80 and $3.15, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $3.15 but less than $3.50":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Between $3.50 and $3.85, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $3.85 but less than $4.20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $4.20 and $4.65, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $4.65":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $2.00","Between $2.00 and $2.45, inclusive","More than $2.45 but less than $2.80","Between $2.80 and $3.15, inclusive","More than $3.15 but less than $3.50","Between $3.50 and $3.85, inclusive","More than $3.85 but less than $4.20","Between $4.20 and $4.65, inclusive","More than $4.65"],"target":"More than $3.15 but less than $3.50"}
{"Question":"In Trump v. Anderson, will the Supreme Court rule that the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering Donald Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot?","Started_time":"2024-01-12","Closed_time":"2024-03-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda","US Policy"],"Description":"On 19 December 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that Donald Trump was disqualified from becoming president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (CBS News, Colorado Supreme Court - Anderson v. Griswold). The US Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's appeal and has scheduled oral arguments for 8 February 2024 (Axios, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Trump v. Anderson, how many US Supreme Court Justices will vote that the Colorado Supreme Court erred in ordering Donald Trump excluded from the 2024 presidential primary ballot?","Started_time":"2024-02-09","Closed_time":"2024-03-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda","US Policy"],"Description":"On 8 February 2024, the US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Donald Trump's appeal of the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to remove him from the state presidential ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment due to his role in the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (C-SPAN - Oral Arguments in Trump v. Anderson, AP, Axios, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"0 or 1.\" The legal bases asserted by a Justice are immaterial. If the opinion of the Court is per curiam, any Justices not named in any concurrence or dissent will be deemed to have voted for the opinion (Cornell - Per Curiam).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0 or 1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2 or 3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"6 or 7":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"8 or 9":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"69%"}},"choices":["0 or 1","2 or 3","4","5","6 or 7","8 or 9"],"target":"8 or 9"}
{"Question":"What will be the \"net sympathy\" among Americans for Israelis versus Palestinians in 2024, according to Gallup's World Affairs survey?","Started_time":"2023-11-10","Closed_time":"2024-02-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Support for Israel among Americans remains high, but it has slipped among different segments of the population (NPR, Gallup - 16 March 2023). The question will be suspended on 6 February 2024 and the outcome determined using survey data as reported by Gallup, expected in the first quarter of 2024 (Gallup - Middle East). The \"net sympathy\" will be calculated by subtracting the \"more sympathetic\" percentage for Palestinians from the \"more sympathetic\" percentage for Israelis. In 2023, \"more sympathies\" for Israel was 54%, and for Palestinians 31%, creating a \"net sympathy\" for Israelis of 23 points. The full question posed by Gallup has historically been, \"In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?\" to which 54% responded \"Israelis\" in 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 10 points or negative":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"At least 10 points, but fewer than 20 points":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"At least 30 points, but fewer than 40 points":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"40 points for more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 10 points or negative","At least 10 points, but fewer than 20 points","At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points","At least 30 points, but fewer than 40 points","40 points for more"],"target":"At least 20 points, but fewer than 30 points"}
{"Question":"Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-29","Closed_time":"2024-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed as of 28 December 2023 (Ars Technica, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Egypt's official exchange rate for the Egyptian pound to the US dollar next reach or exceed 34.5000?","Started_time":"2023-10-27","Closed_time":"2024-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Egypt has devalued its currency, the pound, thrice since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but has not adopted a flexible exchange rate as it agreed to with the IMF in 2022 (US News & World Report, The National). The outcome will be determined using official exchange rate data as reported by the Central Bank of Egypt (Central Bank of Egypt, see \"Sell\" column). Egypt's presidential election is scheduled for 10-12 December 2023, with a runoff scheduled for 8-10 January 2024 if necessary (Egyptian Streets). The dates in the answer bins will not be changed, regardless of any change in the election schedule announced by the Egyptian government.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 13 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13 December 2023 and 10 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11 January 2024 and 29 February 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 March 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 13 December 2023","Between 13 December 2023 and 10 January 2024","Between 11 January 2024 and 29 February 2024","Not before 1 March 2024"],"target":"Not before 1 March 2024"}
{"Question":"Before 1 March 2024, will a new nationwide national or public health emergency related to COVID-19 be declared by the US federal government?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2024-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"On 31 January 2020, HHS Secretary Azar declared a public health emergency under the Public Health Service Act related to COVID-19, which was repeatedly extended through 11 May 2023 (HHS.gov - COVID Public Health Emergency, HHS.gov - End of COVID Public Health Emergency). President Trump later declared a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act on 13 March 2020 (Trump White House Archives). A declaration must be made pursuant to either the Public Health Service Act or the National Emergencies Act to count (PHE.gov - Public Health Service Act, Ballotpedia - National Emergencies Act). The question would close upon the date of the declaration, irrespective of a determination that a national or public health emergency existed since a prior date.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the US Supreme Court agree to hear Donald Trump's appeal from the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit) regarding presidential immunity?","Started_time":"2024-02-12","Closed_time":"2024-02-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda","US Policy"],"Description":"On 6 February 2024, the DC Circuit affirmed a lower court ruling that former President Trump did not have presidential  immunity from criminal prosecution for events related to the 6 January 2021 riot at the Capitol Building (The Hill, DC Circuit - US v. Trump Opinion, Fox News - US v. Trump Judgment and Stay, ABC News). Trump has asked the Court to continue a stay against further trial court proceedings and is expected to file a petition for certiorari with the Supreme Court for review soon after the launch of this question (NPR, Supreme Court - Trump Application for Stay Pending the Filing of a Petition for Writ of Certiorari). Whether the Court grants a stay is immaterial, and any disposition of a case heard by the Court is immaterial. The question would close upon the Supreme Court denying Trump's petition for review. If, for whatever reason, Trump does not file a petition for certiorari before 6 March 2024, the question will close \"No\" as of 6 March 2024. If the petition for certiorari is still pending as of 29 March 2024, the closing date will be extended.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the vote will Nikki Haley receive in the 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary?","Started_time":"2024-02-02","Closed_time":"2024-02-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As of the end of January 2024, Nikki Haley was the last major challenger to Donald Trump for the GOP presidential nomination (Politico, Newsweek). The Michigan Republican primary is scheduled for 27 February 2024 (270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 10.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"40.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 10.0%","At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0%","At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%","At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%","40.0% or more"],"target":"At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the vote will Joe Biden receive in the 2024 Michigan Democratic presidential primary?","Started_time":"2024-02-02","Closed_time":"2024-02-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are three candidates on the Michigan Democratic primary ballot: President Joe Biden, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, and Marianne Williamson (Michigan Secretary of State). The Michigan Democratic primary is scheduled for 27 February 2024 (270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 65.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"At least 65.0%, but less than 75.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"At least 75.0%, but less than 85.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"At least 85.0%, but less than 95.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"95.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Less than 65.0%","At least 65.0%, but less than 75.0%","At least 75.0%, but less than 85.0%","At least 85.0%, but less than 95.0%","95.0% or more"],"target":"At least 75.0%, but less than 85.0%"}
{"Question":"What percentage of new, light-duty zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) sold in California in 2023 will be Tesla vehicles, according to the California Energy Commission (CEC)?","Started_time":"2023-08-25","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Environment"],"Description":"The California car market is by far in the lead for ZEV sales in the US (Teslarati, San Francisco Standard, Autoweek). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data for all of 2023 as reported by the CEC (CEC). Historical data may be retrieved using the \"Year\" and \"Make\" filters under \"SELECT FILTERS.\" For 2022, the CEC reported Tesla sales of 212,586 vehicles and total light-duty ZEV sales of 345,818, for a Tesla percentage of ZEV sales of 61.47%. An xlsx file with historical data current as of the launch of this question may be downloaded here: California ZEV Sales 2011-2023YTD.xlsx.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 48.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"More than 54.0% but less than 60.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Between 60.0% and 66.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"More than 66.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 48.0%","Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive","More than 54.0% but less than 60.0%","Between 60.0% and 66.0%, inclusive","More than 66.0%"],"target":"Between 48.0% and 54.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 26 February 2024, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by Belarus?","Started_time":"2023-08-25","Closed_time":"2024-02-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Tensions have risen between Russian ally Belarus and the bordering NATO member states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland as the Belarusian military and Wagner Group forces began drills in the west of the country (Guardian, NBC News, Euronews). Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which created NATO, states that any member can call for consultations when they believe they are under threat, while Article 5 covers collective defense in the event of an armed attack against a member (NATO - Article 4, NATO - Article 5). Article 4 was last invoked in February 2022 by several NATO member states in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine (CNBC TV18).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the vote will Nikki Haley receive in the 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary?","Started_time":"2024-01-24","Closed_time":"2024-02-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Nikki Haley, who was governor of South Carolina for two terms, is fighting for her presidential campaign's survival as Donald Trump stacks up endorsements (WHYY, ABC News). The South Carolina Republican primary is scheduled for 24 February 2024 (270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 10.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"At least 40.0%, but less than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"50.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Less than 10.0%","At least 10.0%, but less than 20.0%","At least 20.0%, but less than 30.0%","At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%","At least 40.0%, but less than 50.0%","50.0% or more"],"target":"At least 30.0%, but less than 40.0%"}
{"Question":"What will be the price of natural gas in Europe on 16 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-10-13","Closed_time":"2024-02-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Russia-Ukraine Conflict","Middle East in Focus","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"With the second winter since Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaching and with supply disruptions in Australia and the Mediterranean partially offset by high storage levels, observers are keeping a close eye on the Dutch benchmark for natural gas in the EU (Euronews, CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 15 February 2024 and the outcome determined using Dutch TTF Gas data (euros per megawatt hour) as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than \u20ac25.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Between \u20ac25.00 and \u20ac40.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"More than \u20ac40.00 but less than \u20ac55.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between \u20ac55.00 and \u20ac70.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than \u20ac70.00 but less than \u20ac90.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between \u20ac90.00 and \u20ac115.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than \u20ac115.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than \u20ac25.00","Between \u20ac25.00 and \u20ac40.00, inclusive","More than \u20ac40.00 but less than \u20ac55.00","Between \u20ac55.00 and \u20ac70.00, inclusive","More than \u20ac70.00 but less than \u20ac90.00","Between \u20ac90.00 and \u20ac115.00, inclusive","More than \u20ac115.00"],"target":"Less than \u20ac25.00"}
{"Question":"How many software as a service (SaaS) companies will be founded in the US in 2023, according to Crunchbase?","Started_time":"2023-03-31","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"SaaS companies host applications and make them available to customers over the Internet (Digital Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Crunchbase (Crunchbase, parameters set in link). The filters should be set to 1) \"Headquarters Location\" to United States,\" 2) Industry\" set to \"SaaS,\" and 3) \"Custom Range Date\" set to \"1\/1\/2013 - 12\/31\/2023.\" Data will be accessed for resolution on 15 February 2024. As of 31 March 2023, Crunchbase reported that 170 SaaS companies were founded in the US in 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 80":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 80 and 160, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 160 but fewer than 260":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 260 and 380, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"More than 380 but fewer than 520":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"520 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 80","Between 80 and 160, inclusive","More than 160 but fewer than 260","Between 260 and 380, inclusive","More than 380 but fewer than 520","520 or more"],"target":"More than 380 but fewer than 520"}
{"Question":"Who will win the special election for New York's 3rd Congressional District in 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-08","Closed_time":"2024-02-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Representative George Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives on 1 December 2023, creating a vacancy to be filled by a special election in early 2024 (CBS News, Politico, CBS New York).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?","Started_time":"2023-05-11","Closed_time":"2024-02-12","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Since President Saied consolidating power after dismissing parliament in 2021, Tunisia has faced a series of economic, political, and social problems (Al-Monitor, AP, The National).  Whether or not Saied has fled Tunisia will be determined using credible open source media reporting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 12 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12 August 2023 and 11 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12 November 2023 and 11 February 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 12 February 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 12 August 2023","Between 12 August 2023 and 11 November 2023","Between 12 November 2023 and 11 February 2024","Not before 12 February 2024"],"target":"Not before 12 February 2024"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LVIII in 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-08","Closed_time":"2024-02-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Super Bowl LVIII is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 in Las Vegas, NV (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Baltimore Ravens":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Buffalo Bills":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Dallas Cowboys":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Detroit Lions":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Jacksonville Jaguars":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Kansas City Chiefs":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58%"},"Miami Dolphins":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Philadelphia Eagles":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"San Francisco 49ers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Baltimore Ravens","Buffalo Bills","Dallas Cowboys","Detroit Lions","Jacksonville Jaguars","Kansas City Chiefs","Miami Dolphins","Philadelphia Eagles","San Francisco 49ers","Another team"],"target":"Kansas City Chiefs"}
{"Question":"How many total international overnight guests will visit Dubai in 2023, according to the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism?","Started_time":"2023-02-02","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Tourism levels in Dubai have recovered from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, and has implemented new policies to attract for visitors to the emirate (BBC, Skift). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data from the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (Dubai Tourism). In 2021, 7.28 million total international overnight guests visited Dubai, while 16.73 million visited in 2019 (Dubai Tourism - December 2021 Report, Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report, Dubai Tourism - Research and Insights).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 10.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 10.0 and 13.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 13.0 but fewer than 16.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Between 16.0 and 19.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"More than 19 million but fewer than 22.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"22.0 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 10.0 million","Between 10.0 and 13.0 million, inclusive","More than 13.0 but fewer than 16.0 million","Between 16.0 and 19.0 million, inclusive","More than 19 million but fewer than 22.0 million","22.0 million or more"],"target":"Between 16.0 and 19.0 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will President Joe Biden win at least 80.0% of the vote in the 2024 Nevada Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2024-01-17","Closed_time":"2024-02-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are 13 Democratic candidates on the Nevada Democratic primary ballot, including President Joe Biden and Marianne Williamson (Nevada Secretary of State, KRNV). The Nevada Democratic primary is scheduled for 6 February 2024 (270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Donald Trump's appeal before the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit), will the DC Circuit rule that President Trump is immune from prosecution for the criminal charges against him in the DC District Court?","Started_time":"2024-01-05","Closed_time":"2024-02-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda","US Policy"],"Description":"After the US Supreme Court denied Trump's appeal for it to rule on his claims of presidential immunity that were denied by the district court, the DC Circuit is scheduled to hear oral arguments on 9 January 2024 (SCOTUSblog, AP, NPR). The DC Circuit is expected to hand down its decision in the coming months, but if it does not and the case is otherwise disposed (e.g., dismissal), the question will close as \"No.\" If the DC Circuit decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" If the DC Circuit rules that Trump is immune from prosecution for some, but not all, of the criminal charges, the question will close \"No.\" Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or announcement, including a rehearing en banc, are immaterial (Cornell).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Nikol Pashinyan cease to be the prime minister of Armenia before 6 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-10-06","Closed_time":"2024-02-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Azerbaijan's ultimate conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with an ethnic Armenian majority, in September 2023 has put great pressure on the government in Yerevan (Politico, Al Jazeera, NEWS.am). Pashinyan staying on in a caretaker prime minister role subsequent with his resignation as prime minister would still count as Pashinyan ceasing to be prime minister (Constitution of Armenia, see Article 149, France 24).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the vote will President Joe Biden receive in the 2024 South Carolina Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2024-01-17","Closed_time":"2024-02-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are three candidates on the South Carolina Democratic primary ballot: President Joe Biden, Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, and Marianne Williamson (South Carolina Democratic Party). The South Carolina Democratic primary is scheduled for 3 February 2024 (South Carolina Election Commission).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"At least 50.0%, but less than 60.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"At least 60.0%, but less than 70.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"At least 70.0%, but less than 80.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"At least 80.0%, but less than 90.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"90.0% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"}},"choices":["Less than 50.0%","At least 50.0%, but less than 60.0%","At least 60.0%, but less than 70.0%","At least 70.0%, but less than 80.0%","At least 80.0%, but less than 90.0%","90.0% or more"],"target":"90.0% or more"}
{"Question":"Will Representative Dean Phillips cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 3 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-11-03","Closed_time":"2024-02-03","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips announced that he would challenge President Biden for the Democratic nomination for president in 2024 (ABC News, Politico). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Phillips no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will President Joe Biden cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Democratic nomination for US president before 3 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-07-21","Closed_time":"2024-02-03","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"President Biden announced in April 2023 that he was running for reelection, there's ongoing speculation that he may drop out of the race (CNN, Guardian). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Biden no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Ukraine's Corruption Perceptions Index score rise in 2023 as compared to 2022, according to Transparency International?","Started_time":"2023-09-22","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As war continues in Ukraine, fights against corruption in the government continue (CBC, BBC, Guardian). The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) is a measure of a country's perceived levels of public sector corruption (Transparency International). The scale runs from zero to 100, with 100 being the least corrupt. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using CPI data for Ukraine once published for 2023, expected in early 2024. In 2022, Ukraine had a score of 33, up by one point from 2021 (Transparency International - Ukraine).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"71%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg publicly engage in physical combat in an officiated setting before 1 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-07-21","Closed_time":"2024-02-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"On 20 June 2023, Twitter owner Elon Musk apparently challenged Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg to a cage match (Twitter, Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report, Politico). The match\/fight involving some form of physical combat must be viewable by the public (e.g., broadcast, physically present audience, pay-per-view) in real time with some form of official (e.g., referee, umpire) present and in putative control of the event to count. The physical combat must involve direct contact, and such contact made while wearing gloves, armor, or other gear\/clothing would count. Physical combat with the use of hand-held implements (e.g., clubs, axes, swords, spears, morning stars, flails, lances, hammers) would count, though combat solely with the use of projectile weapons (e.g., bows, crossbows, firearms, slings) would not count. Whether the match\/fight is staged or scripted is immaterial, and the involvement of an actual cage is not necessary to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Apple announce the public release of a new generative artificial intelligence (AI) system in the US?","Started_time":"2023-07-28","Closed_time":"2024-02-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society"],"Description":"While Microsoft, Google, and others have released generative AI systems, Apple has yet to join them (CNBC, CNET, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, \"generative AI\" means a deep-learning model that can generate high-quality text, images, and\/or other content based on the data on which they were trained (IBM). Examples of generative AI systems that would qualify include ChatGPT, Bard, LLaMa, DALL-E 2, and Claude (Tech Monitor, OpenAI). An announced release of a system created or administered by a partnership with another firm or organization would count. Individually personalized systems or features would not count (e.g., TechCrunch). Providing limited availability for specific individuals (e.g., journalists, academics) or firms (e.g., Apple for AppleCare) alone would not count, and whether use of the AI requires payment is immaterial (Yahoo).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2023 and 30 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 December 2023 and 31 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 February 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2023","Between 1 October 2023 and 30 November 2023","Between 1 December 2023 and 31 January 2024","Not before 1 February 2024"],"target":"Not before 1 February 2024"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 31 January 2024, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 13 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-09-22","Closed_time":"2024-01-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 30-31 January 2024.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-10","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"With US oil stockpiles in the SPR down 42% since President Biden took office, Republicans and Democrats are fighting over what to do next (Politico, The Hill, Department of Energy). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) when first released for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (EIA). For November 2022, ending stocks totaled 388,419 thousand barrels.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 330,000 thousand barrels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"More than 370,000 thousand barrels but less than 410,000 thousand barrels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 410,000 thousand barrels and 450,000 thousand barrels, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 450,000 thousand barrels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 330,000 thousand barrels","Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive","More than 370,000 thousand barrels but less than 410,000 thousand barrels","Between 410,000 thousand barrels and 450,000 thousand barrels, inclusive","More than 450,000 thousand barrels"],"target":"Between 330,000 thousand barrels and 370,000 thousand barrels, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-23","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"While inventories improved in 2022, rising interest rates are putting pressure on US auto sales (Cox Automotive, PR Newswire, NASDAQ). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2023 data are first available (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 12.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12.5 million and 13.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 13.0 million but fewer than 13.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13.5 million and 14.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 14.5 million and 15.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 15.0 million but fewer than 15.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"More than 16.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 12.5 million","Between 12.5 million and 13.0 million, inclusive","More than 13.0 million but fewer than 13.5 million","Between 13.5 million and 14.0 million, inclusive","More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.5 million","Between 14.5 million and 15.0 million, inclusive","More than 15.0 million but fewer than 15.5 million","Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive","More than 16.0 million"],"target":"Between 15.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 28 January 2024, will West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024?","Started_time":"2023-07-14","Closed_time":"2024-01-28","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Manchin has repeatedly floated the prospect that he may run for president in 2024 (NBC News, The Hill, Politico, NY1). Persons running for federal office in the US must register with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) upon raising or spending more than $5,000 in contributions or expenditures (FEC - Registration, FEC - Candidates). The question would close early if Manchin publicly announces that he will not run for US president in 2024.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from October 2023 through December 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?","Started_time":"2023-09-29","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"A new surge of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico has drawn new attention on US border security (US News & World Report, The Hill). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of October 2023 through December 2023 once data for December 2023 are first reported (CBP). Between calendar October 2022 and December 2022, CBP reported a total of 719,056 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question. Please note that calendar October 2023 through December 2023 falls within the US federal government fiscal year of 2024.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 200,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 200,000 and 350,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 350,000 but fewer than 500,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 500,000 and 650,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than 950,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 200,000","Between 200,000 and 350,000, inclusive","More than 350,000 but fewer than 500,000","Between 500,000 and 650,000, inclusive","More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000","Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive","More than 950,000"],"target":"More than 650,000 but fewer than 800,000"}
{"Question":"How will Donald Trump and Nikki Haley perform in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?","Started_time":"2024-01-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","2024 US Election Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Donald Trump's dominant lead in the polls for the New Hampshire primary has faded as Nikki Haley rises in its primary polls (CNN, NBC News, FiveThirtyEight - NH Republican Primary Polls). The margin will be determined by taking the number of votes won by each pertinent candidate and dividing that by the total number of counted votes cast. The resulting percentage for a pertinent candidate will be subtracted from the resulting percentage for another pertinent candidate in order to determine the outcome. The New Hampshire Republican primary is scheduled for 23 January 2024 (WMUR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Nikki Haley will receive more votes than Donald Trump and win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, and win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of more than 5.0% but less than 10.0%, and win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Donald Trump will receive the more votes with a margin of more than 15.0% than Nikki Haley, and win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Another outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Nikki Haley will receive more votes than Donald Trump and win","Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 0.0% and 5.0%, inclusive, and win","Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of more than 5.0% but less than 10.0%, and win","Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win","Donald Trump will receive the more votes with a margin of more than 15.0% than Nikki Haley, and win","Another outcome"],"target":"Donald Trump will receive more votes than Nikki Haley by a margin of between 10.0% and 15.0%, inclusive, and win"}
{"Question":"What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-24","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy in 2023 (CBS News, CNBC, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in January 2024 (FRED, BEA - Release Schedule).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"Higher by 3.0% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 3.0%","Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive","Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%","Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive","Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%","Higher by 3.0% or more"],"target":"Higher by 3.0% or more"}
{"Question":"How many more total Supercharger stations will Tesla report globally for the fourth quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?","Started_time":"2023-06-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment","US Policy"],"Description":"Tesla already has the largest network of EV chargers in the US, and both General Motors and Ford have announced that their EVs will be chargeable at Tesla stations starting in 2024 (Guardian, AP, Inside EVs). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: Tesla - Quarterly Results. Tesla's total number of Supercharger stations globally as of the fourth quarter of 2022 was 4,678 (Tesla - Q4 2022 Update, see page 7).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Between 1,000 and 1,300, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"More than 1,300 but fewer than 1,600":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Between 1,600 and 1,900, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 1,900 but fewer than 2,200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"2,200 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1,000","Between 1,000 and 1,300, inclusive","More than 1,300 but fewer than 1,600","Between 1,600 and 1,900, inclusive","More than 1,900 but fewer than 2,200","2,200 or more"],"target":"Between 1,000 and 1,300, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many total vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-21","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Tesla produced a record 343,830 vehicles in the third quarter of 2022, and production is expected to rise into 2023 (InsideEVs, Tesla Owners Online). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https:\/\/ir.tesla.com\/financial-information\/quarterly-results. Tesla's total deliveries of  vehicles during the first three quarters of 2022 was 908,573 (Tesla - Q3 2022 Update, see page 7).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1.1 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 1.1 million and 1.4 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 1.4 million but fewer than 1.7 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.3 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 2.3 million and 2.6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 2.6 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1.1 million","Between 1.1 million and 1.4 million, inclusive","More than 1.4 million but fewer than 1.7 million","Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive","More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.3 million","Between 2.3 million and 2.6 million, inclusive","More than 2.6 million"],"target":"Between 1.7 million and 2.0 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many employed persons in the US will be members of unions in 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?","Started_time":"2023-04-21","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the BLS for 2023, expected in early 2024 (BLS). To access the data, select only the box under \"Total\" under \"Members of unions(1)\" for the row \"Total, 16 years and over,\" then click the \"Retrieve data\" button under the  table. In 2022, there were 14,285 thousand employed persons were members of unions, or 14.285 million.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 13.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13.8 million and 14.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Between 14.2 million and 14.4 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54%"},"More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"14.6 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 13.8 million","Between 13.8 million and 14.0 million, inclusive","More than 14.0 million but fewer than 14.2 million","Between 14.2 million and 14.4 million, inclusive","More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million","14.6 million or more"],"target":"More than 14.4 million but fewer than 14.6 million"}
{"Question":"In how many US jurisdictions will Donald Trump have any criminal charges outstanding as of the day before the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary?","Started_time":"2023-06-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-23","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As of 16 June 2023, former President Donald Trump is facing criminal charges in two jurisdictions: the state of New York and federal criminal charges in the Southern District of Florida as an investigation continues in Georgia (Manhattan District Attorney, Southern District of Florida, NBC News, Politico). For the purposes of this question, \"US jurisdiction\" means either the US federal government, including the District of Columbia, or the government of any of the 50 states. The outcome will be determined based on the status of criminal charges as of 8:00PM PT the day before the New Hampshire Republican primary, currently expected in early 2024 (Ballotpedia). The close date for this question will be changed once the official primary date is set. If Trump is deceased during the question's open period, the question will close \"0,\" and criminal charges would be considered to have ceased to be outstanding upon the dismissal of or entry of a verdict on those charges and irrespective of any appeals.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"3":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"3"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the US dollar\/Russian ruble exchange rate on 19 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-07-14","Closed_time":"2024-01-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"While the ruble showed resilience in the early months of Russia's war in Ukraine, the currency has fallen considerably in mid-2023 (CNN, Newsweek, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 70.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 70.00 and 85.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher than 85.00 but lower than 100.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Between 100.00 and 115.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 115.00 but lower than 130.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"130.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 70.00","Between 70.00 and 85.00, inclusive","Higher than 85.00 but lower than 100.00","Between 100.00 and 115.00, inclusive","More than 115.00 but lower than 130.00","130.00 or more"],"target":"Higher than 85.00 but lower than 100.00"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of landed immigrants in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To adjust the date range, see the year drop-down menus under \"Reference period,\" and click \"Apply.\" Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers in the labour force who are landed immigrants will be determined by dividing the number of \"Landed Immigrants\" by the \"Total Population\" figure. In 2021, landed immigrants comprised 32.04% (=910.4\/2841.2) of the BC labour force.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 32.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"More than 33.0% but less than 34.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Between 34.0% and 35.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than 35.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 32.0%","Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive","More than 33.0% but less than 34.0%","Between 34.0% and 35.0%, inclusive","More than 35.0%"],"target":"Between 32.0% and 33.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-28","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (US Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for \"Housing Units Started.\" In the file, find the \"StartsUA\" sheet. The total number of starts in 2021 was 1,601.1 thousand, or 1,601,100.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1.30 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 1.75 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1.30 million","Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive","More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million","Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive","More than 1.75 million"],"target":"Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the monthly percentage change in US retail sales for December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Retail sales is a measure of consumer demand for finished goods in an economy (Investopedia, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using US Census Bureau Retail Trade and Food Services data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (FRED). In December 2022, the monthly percentage change in US retail sales was -0.7%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down by more than 0.8%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Down by up to 0.8%, but less than 0.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"Up by at least 0.8%, but less than 1.6%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Up by at least 1.6%, but less than 2.4%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Up by 2.4% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Down by more than 0.8%","Down by up to 0.8%, but less than 0.0%","Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8%","Up by at least 0.8%, but less than 1.6%","Up by at least 1.6%, but less than 2.4%","Up by 2.4% or more"],"target":"Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 0.8%"}
{"Question":"What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-04","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Various forecasts for China's economic growth in 2023 have been cut as the country deals with various economic issues (CNBC, CNN). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in January 2024 (Trading Economics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Higher by less than 3.0% or lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher by at least 3.0%, but less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Higher by at least 4.0%, but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"Higher by at least 5.0%, but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Higher by at least 6.0%, but less than 7.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Higher by 7.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Higher by less than 3.0% or lower","Higher by at least 3.0%, but less than 4.0%","Higher by at least 4.0%, but less than 5.0%","Higher by at least 5.0%, but less than 6.0%","Higher by at least 6.0%, but less than 7.0%","Higher by 7.0% or more"],"target":"Higher by at least 5.0%, but less than 6.0%"}
{"Question":"Will the \"natural growth rate\" of the population of China in 2023 be negative?","Started_time":"2023-11-17","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Deaths outnumbered births in China for the first time on record in 2022, the consequence of a long-expected demographic shift in the country that the government is working to address (BBC, CNBC, National Statistics Bureau of China). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using natural growth rate (i.e., the birth rate minus the death rate over a given period) data as published by the Chinese government for 2023, expected in early 2024. Because your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics website, we have included the birth rate, death rate, and natural growth rate for the past ten years:","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the estimated 12-month forward earnings of the S&P 500 on 29 December 2023? - 2023","Started_time":"2023-04-12","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 150":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than or equal to 150 but less than 175":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than or equal to 175 but less than 200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than or equal to 200 but less than 215":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than or equal to 215 but less than 225":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"More than or equal to 225 but less than 240":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"More than or equal to 240 but less than 265":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than or equal to 265 but less than 290":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than or equal to 290 but less than 315":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than or equal to 315":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 150","More than or equal to 150 but less than 175","More than or equal to 175 but less than 200","More than or equal to 200 but less than 215","More than or equal to 215 but less than 225","More than or equal to 225 but less than 240","More than or equal to 240 but less than 265","More than or equal to 265 but less than 290","More than or equal to 290 but less than 315","More than or equal to 315"],"target":"More than or equal to 215 but less than 225"}
{"Question":"When will US legislation appropriating new funding for government and\/or military assistance to Ukraine become law?","Started_time":"2023-10-20","Closed_time":"2024-01-16","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"While President Biden and many members of Congress had pushed for more Ukraine funding to be included in the continuing resolution negotiated to prevent a government shutdown, none was included (CNBC, Colorado Public Radio). Legislation that only extends preexisting funding for Ukraine (e.g., a continuing resolution without new funding) would not count (Government Accountability Office, Congressional Research Service).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 19 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 19 November 2023 and 17 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 18 December 2023 and 15 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Not before 16 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"}},"choices":["Before 19 November 2023","Between 19 November 2023 and 17 December 2023","Between 18 December 2023 and 15 January 2024","Not before 16 January 2024"],"target":"Not before 16 January 2024"}
{"Question":"Will Sen. Robert Menendez and\/or Rep. George Santos cease to hold their respective seats in the US Congress before 15 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-10-20","Closed_time":"2024-01-15","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics"],"Description":"Democratic Senator Menendez is facing a growing list of federal charges related to bribery and corruption, while Republican Representative George Santos is dealing with a slew of charges related to fraud (Department of Justice - Menendez Charged, AP, Department of Justice - Santos Charged, NBC News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Sen. Robert Menendez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only Rep. George Santos":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Yes, both Sen. Robert Menendez and Rep. George Santos":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Sen. Robert Menendez","Yes, only Rep. George Santos","Yes, both Sen. Robert Menendez and Rep. George Santos","No"],"target":"Yes, only Rep. George Santos"}
{"Question":"Between 22 September 2023 and 14 January 2024, will Donald Trump be found in contempt of court by a judge presiding over any US criminal proceedings for which he is a defendant?","Started_time":"2023-09-22","Closed_time":"2024-01-15","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As former President Trump faces criminal charges in various jurisdictions, he is under various orders from courts to refrain from making certain comments against prosecutors and others (Politico - Trump Criminal Investigations Cases Tracker, US News & World Report, Politico, NBC News, Cornell - Gag Order). A finding of either civil contempt or criminal contempt in pertinent criminal proceedings would count, and the proceedings may be in either state or federal court (Cornell - Contempt of Court). A contempt finding in civil cases would not count (e.g., US News & World Report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Donald Trump cease to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination for US president before 15 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-07-28","Closed_time":"2024-01-15","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Former President Trump announced in November 2022 that he was running for president amid a slew of legal troubles (US News & World Report, BBC). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Trump no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo be inaugurated as President of Guatemala before 16 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-11-10","Closed_time":"2024-01-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Bernardo Ar\u00e9valo won the August 2023 Guatemalan presidential election and is due to be inaugurated on 14 January 2024, but he is facing various obstacles from state institutions (CNN, Axios, El Pa\u00eds, France 24, US Mission to Org. of American States).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will federal legislation waiving Section 230 immunity with regard to the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) become law before 12 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-06-23","Closed_time":"2024-01-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The US Congress is considering various measures to regulate the growth and use of AI, including waiving immunity under Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 for generative AI (Axios, US News & World Report, Senate.gov - Josh Hawley). Section 230 is a statute that protects social media and other companies from liability for content their users post (The Verge, The Conversation, Cornell).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.32%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.68%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will a UN member state other than the US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-15","Closed_time":"2024-01-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (ABC News, US News & World Report, BBC). The GCC is an international body comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (GCC). \"Stray\" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"69%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it executed a military strike from the air or sea against a ground target within the territory of Yemen before 1 March 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-15","Closed_time":"2024-01-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Iran-back Houthi forces in Yemen have repeatedly attacked vessels off the Yemeni coast since war broke out in Gaza (ABC News, US News & World Report, BBC). \"Stray\" bullets or ordinance that hit an unintended target after being fired would not count. Both the strike and acknowledgement must occur during the question's open period to count, and would close upon the acknowledgement. Targets in territorial waters would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"74%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Somalia due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?","Started_time":"2023-09-29","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Starting in August 2022, the Somali government started a total war against Al-Shabaab, resulting in the most comprehensive territorial gains since the mid-2010s (International Crisis Group). Various factors, including a shortage of forces, have limited activity against Al-Shabaab in 2023, which has raised fears that the Islamist group may regroup and retake control of some territory (ACLED - Somalia Situation Update May 2023). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the \"EVENT DATE\" range as appropriate, (2) for \"EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for \"REGION,\" select only \"Somalia\" under \"Eastern Africa,\" (4) for \"FATALITIES,\" leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for \"ACTOR TYPE,\" select all, (6) for \"INTERACTION,\" select all, and click \"APPLY FILTERS.\" Click \"EVENT COUNT\" above the chart and change the selection to \"FATALITIES.\" As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 1,502 total fatalities in the second quarter of 2023 in Somalia (1,122 attributed to \"Battles,\" 108 attributed to \"Violence against civilians,\" 269 attributed to \"Explosions\/Remote violence,\" 3 attributed to \"Strategic developments,\" and none attributed to \"Riots\" or \"Protests\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 2,400":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Between 2,400 and 3,200, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 3,200 but fewer than 4,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 4,000 and 4,800, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"More than 4,800 but fewer than 5,600":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"5,600 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 2,400","Between 2,400 and 3,200, inclusive","More than 3,200 but fewer than 4,000","Between 4,000 and 4,800, inclusive","More than 4,800 but fewer than 5,600","5,600 or more"],"target":"Fewer than 2,400"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023, how many total violent conflict events will occur in Northern Mali, according to ACLED?","Started_time":"2023-09-29","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"MINUSMA, a UN peacekeeping mission established to stabilize Northern Mali after a Tuareg uprising in 2012, was ordered to leave the country by its military government in mid-2023, which has raised fears of new violence (France 24, MINUSMA, International Crisis Group, UN - Africa Renewal). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the \"EVENT DATE\" range as appropriate, (2) for \"EVENT TYPE, select only \"Battles,\" \"Violence against civilians,\" and \"Explosions\/Remote violence,\" (3) for \"REGION,\" select only \"Gao,\" \"Kidal,\" and \"Tombouctou\" under \"Mali\" under \"Western Africa,\" (4) for \"FATALITIES,\" leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for \"ACTOR TYPE,\" select all, (6) for \"INTERACTION,\" select all, and click \"APPLY FILTERS.\" As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 99 total qualifying events in the second quarter of 2023 in Northern Mali (19 \"Battles,\" 72 events of \"Violence against civilians,\" and 8 \"Explosions\/Remote violence\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 100":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Between 100 and 125, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 125 but fewer than 150":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 150 and 175, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 175 but fewer than 200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 200 and 225, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"More than 225":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 100","Between 100 and 125, inclusive","More than 125 but fewer than 150","Between 150 and 175, inclusive","More than 175 but fewer than 200","Between 200 and 225, inclusive","More than 225"],"target":"Between 200 and 225, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-04","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Inflation in the US is expected to cool in 2023 versus 2022, with some discussing the potential for deflation (Morningstar, CBS News, CNBC, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for December 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for \"All items,\" expected in January 2024 (BLS). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down by more than 0.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Up by 6.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Down by more than 0.0%","Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive","Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%","Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive","Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0%","Up by 6.0% or more"],"target":"Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Presidents Claudine Gay of Harvard University and\/or Sally Kornbluth of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) cease to be the presidents of their respective institutions before 11 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-12-11","Closed_time":"2024-01-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics"],"Description":"Calls for the presidents of Harvard and MIT to resign have continued in the wake of early December 2023 US House hearings on antisemitism on college campuses, with Liz Magill of the University of Pennsylvania having already resigned on 9 December 2023 (USA Today, CNN, NPR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Claudine Gay":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Yes, only Sally Kornbluth":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both Claudine Gay and Sally Kornbluth":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Claudine Gay","Yes, only Sally Kornbluth","Yes, both Claudine Gay and Sally Kornbluth","No"],"target":"Yes, only Claudine Gay"}
{"Question":"When will new federal legislation enabling the executive branch to ban or prohibit TikTok from operating in the US become law?","Started_time":"2023-03-24","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Entertainment","Foreign Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"On 7 March 2023, a bipartisan group of senators introduced the RESTRICT Act, legislation designed to empower the executive branch to, among other things, prohibit companies from certain countries from performing transactions in the US (US News & World Report, NBC News, Sen. Mark Warner, TechCrunch, Congress.gov - S.686). The date the legislation would take effect and whether TikTok is actually banned would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 11 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11 August 2023 and 31 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 11 August 2023","Between 11 August 2023 and 31 December 2023","Not before 1 January 2024"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2024"}
{"Question":"Will an end to diplomatic relations between Israel and Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and\/or the UAE be officially announced before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-10-13","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As the Israeli conflict in the Gaza Strip escalates after attacks in southern Israel in early October 2023, there are concerns that diplomatic relations between Israel and various Arab states could suffer (Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, AP, New Arab). The expulsion or recalling of some individuals alone would not count (e.g., AP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-30","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"The US is entering 2023 with a third year of La Ni\u00f1a and drought affecting various parts of the country (FOX Weather, San Francisco Standard, NIFC - Outlooks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2021, reported wildfires consumed 7,125,643 acres in the US (NIFC Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2021, NIFC - Wildfires and Acres).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 5.0 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between 5.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 6.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 8.0 million and 9.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 9.5 million but fewer than 11.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11.0 million and 12.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 12.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 5.0 million","Between 5.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive","More than 6.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million","Between 8.0 million and 9.5 million, inclusive","More than 9.5 million but fewer than 11.0 million","Between 11.0 million and 12.5 million, inclusive","More than 12.5 million"],"target":"Fewer than 5.0 million"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2024 College Football Playoff National Championship?","Started_time":"2023-11-10","Closed_time":"2024-01-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The two semifinal games are scheduled for 1 January 2024, and the national championship game is scheduled for 8  January 2024 in Houston, Texas (NCAA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Alabama Crimson Tide":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Florida State Seminoles":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Georgia Bulldogs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Michigan Wolverines":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Ohio State Buckeyes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Oregon Ducks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Texas Longhorns":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Washington Huskies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Alabama Crimson Tide","Florida State Seminoles","Georgia Bulldogs","Michigan Wolverines","Ohio State Buckeyes","Oregon Ducks","Texas Longhorns","Washington Huskies","Another team"],"target":"Michigan Wolverines"}
{"Question":"Which NFL quarterback will throw for the most touchdowns in the 2023 regular season?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2024-01-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"NFL Player Passing Stats 2023\" data as reported by ESPN (ESPN). In the event of a tie, the quarterback who threw for the most yards per game will be considered to have thrown for the most touchdowns, followed by completion percentage (CMP%). The team for which each named quarterback was due to start as of the launch of this question is in parentheses, but the team for whom any quarterback is playing is immaterial to the resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Patrick Mahomes (KC Chiefs)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Justin Herbert (LA Chargers)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another quarterback":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Patrick Mahomes (KC Chiefs)","Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)","Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)","Justin Herbert (LA Chargers)","Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets)","Another quarterback"],"target":"Another quarterback"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the AFC East division in the 2023 season?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2024-01-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Buffalo Bills":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64%"},"Miami Dolphins":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"New England Patriots":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New York Jets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Buffalo Bills","Miami Dolphins","New England Patriots","New York Jets"],"target":"Buffalo Bills"}
{"Question":"Will \"Barbie\" win more Golden Globes than \"Oppenheimer?\"","Started_time":"2023-12-22","Closed_time":"2024-01-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Barbie received the most Golden Globe nominations for 2024 with nine (three in the same category of Best Original Song - Motion Picture), and Oppenheimer came in second with eight (BBC). The awards ceremony is scheduled for 7 January 2024 (Golden Globes).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe from around the Mediterranean Sea in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-13","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for \"Total arrivals\" on its Mediterranean Situation page (UNHCR - Mediterranean Situation). In 2022, a total of 159,410 arrived in Europe (sea arrivals to Italy, Cyprus, and Malta, and both sea and land arrivals to Greece and Spain (including the Canary Islands)).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"Between 350,000 and 550,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 550,000 but fewer than 800,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"800,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 100,000","Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive","More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000","Between 350,000 and 550,000, inclusive","More than 550,000 but fewer than 800,000","800,000 or more"],"target":"More than 200,000 but fewer than 350,000"}
{"Question":"What will be the spot price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 29 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Gasoline prices in the US reached 10-month highs in August 2023 as oil prices rise (CNN, The Hill). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the spot price per barrel per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2024 (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $60.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $60.00 and $70.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than $70.00 but less than $80.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Between $80.00 and $90.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than $90.00 but less than $100.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $100.00 and $110.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $110.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $60.00","Between $60.00 and $70.00, inclusive","More than $70.00 but less than $80.00","Between $80.00 and $90.00, inclusive","More than $90.00 but less than $100.00","Between $100.00 and $110.00, inclusive","More than $110.00"],"target":"More than $70.00 but less than $80.00"}
{"Question":"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-19","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"While the US unemployment rate in April 2023 tied for the lowest in 70 years, there are signals that the labor market is cooling amid general recession fears (US News & World Report, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics when first released, expected in January 2024 (BLS).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 3.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5.0% or higher, but lower than 5.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6.0% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 3.5%","3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%","4.0% or higher, but lower than 4.5%","4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.0%","5.0% or higher, but lower than 5.5%","5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.0%","6.0% or higher"],"target":"3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.0%"}
{"Question":"Will the US civilian labor force participation rate be higher in December 2023 than it was in October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The labor force participation rate has been trending down since the beginning of the 21st century (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database once figures for December 2023 are first released, expected in January 2024 (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"Oil prices have fallen from historic highs reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the Biden administration is pushing for more domestic production (Axios, US News & World Report, NASDAQ). The outcome will be determined using the \"4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil\" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA). A weekly figure must have its \"End Date\" between 6 January 2023 and 29 December 2023 to count. On 6 December 2022, the EIA forecasted domestic production would increase to 12.34 million barrels per day in 2023 (EIA Short-term Energy Outlook - December 2022).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 12,000 thousand b\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12,000 and 12,400 thousand b\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 12,400 but less than 12,800 thousand b\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12,800 and 13,200 thousand b\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"More than 13,200 thousand b\/d":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"}},"choices":["Less than 12,000 thousand b\/d","Between 12,000 and 12,400 thousand b\/d, inclusive","More than 12,400 but less than 12,800 thousand b\/d","Between 12,800 and 13,200 thousand b\/d, inclusive","More than 13,200 thousand b\/d"],"target":"More than 13,200 thousand b\/d"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of workers 55 years and older in December 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To retrieve data for a specific month, see the month and year drop-down menus under \"Reference period,\" and click \"Apply.\" Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers 55 years and older who are in the labour force will be determined by dividing the \"Labour force\" figure for \"55 years and older\" by the \"Labour force\" figure for \"15 years and over\" for December 2023. In October 2022, workers 55 years and older comprised 21.87% (=630.8\/2884.6) of the BC labour force.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 20.0% and 21.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 21.0% but less than 22.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Between 22.0% and 23.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"More than 23.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Less than 20.0%","Between 20.0% and 21.0%, inclusive","More than 21.0% but less than 22.0%","Between 22.0% and 23.0%, inclusive","More than 23.0%"],"target":"More than 21.0% but less than 22.0%"}
{"Question":"Between November 2022 and December 2023, will workers 15 to 24 years old who are in the labour force of British Columbia (BC) comprise more than 14.6% of the total BC labour force in any month?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To retrieve data for a specific month, see the month and year drop-down menus under \"Reference period,\" and click \"Apply.\" Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers 15 to 24 years old who are in the labour force will be determined by dividing the \"Labour force\" figure for \"15 to 24 years\" by the \"Labour force\" figure for \"15 years and over\" in the relevant month. In October 2022, workers 15 to 24 years old comprised 13.62% (=393.0\/2884.6) of the BC labour force.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.30%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.70%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many presidential campaign rallies will Donald Trump hold in early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president in the fourth quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda","Former President Donald Trump announced that he will seek the Republican nomination for US president in 2024 (The Hill). FiveThirtyEight Founder Nate Silver speculated on Twitter whether Trump is actually running for reasons other than winning the 2024 presidential election (Twitter - Nate Silver). \"Early-voting states for the Republican nomination for president\" are the four states scheduled to hold Republican primaries or caucuses first. The list of pertinent states is subject to change depending on the official finalization of the schedule by the jurisdictions involved. The list will be finalized for this question no later than 31 August 2023, and if there is more than one primary scheduled for the date on which the fourth would fall, the primary for the state with the largest population would be included. For a Trump presidential campaign rally to count, it must be open to the public (though not necessarily free to attend), have reported attendance of at least 1,000, and have Donald Trump speak at the event in person (e.g., WUWM, Telegraph Herald)."],"Description":"*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read the question description carefully before forecasting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"None":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 1 and 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Between 7 and 12":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"},"Between 13 and 18":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"19 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["None","Between 1 and 6","Between 7 and 12","Between 13 and 18","19 or more"],"target":"Between 13 and 18"}
{"Question":"When will Nikki Haley surpass either Ron DeSantis or Donald Trump in 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?","Started_time":"2023-11-08","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has been rising slowly but steadily in the race for the Republican nomination (CNN). The question will be suspended on 12 January 2024 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to \"3M\"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data for 12 January 2024 are first reported, if necessary. If either DeSantis or Trump ceases to be a candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, the question will close as of the date the candidate ceased.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 30 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 30 November 2023 and 21 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 22 December 2023 and 12 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"Not before 13 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"}},"choices":["Before 30 November 2023","Between 30 November 2023 and 21 December 2023","Between 22 December 2023 and 12 January 2024","Not before 13 January 2024"],"target":"Between 22 December 2023 and 12 January 2024"}
{"Question":"How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Amidst higher interest rates, job openings in the US have fallen in 2023 but are still at historically elevated levels (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for November 2023, expected in January 2024 (FRED, BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule). As of 18 August 2023, the total number of job openings reported for November 2022 was 10,746 (in thousands), or 10.746 million.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 7.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 8.0 million but fewer than 8.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"More than 9.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Between 9.5 million and 10.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"More than 10.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 7.5 million","Between 7.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive","More than 8.0 million but fewer than 8.5 million","Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive","More than 9.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million","Between 9.5 million and 10.0 million, inclusive","More than 10.0 million"],"target":"Between 8.5 million and 9.0 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the spot exchange rate value of US dollars to one euro on 29 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"The Federal Reserve releases daily bilateral exchange rate data on a weekly basis (Federal Reserve). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Federal Reserve data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected on 2 January 2024 (FRED). On 10 August 2023, the spot exchange rate value was 1.1016.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 1.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between 1.000 and 1.040, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Higher than 1.040 but lower than 1.080":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"Higher than 1.120 but lower than 1.160":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 1.160 and 1.200, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 1.200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Lower than 1.000","Between 1.000 and 1.040, inclusive","Higher than 1.040 but lower than 1.080","Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive","Higher than 1.120 but lower than 1.160","Between 1.160 and 1.200, inclusive","Higher than 1.200"],"target":"Between 1.080 and 1.120, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the price of bitcoin on 31 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"From January 2023 to mid-August 2023, bitcoin has nearly doubled in value in US dollar terms amid continued pushes for a spot bitcoin ETF in the US (Cointelegraph). The question will be suspended on 30 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Coinbase price data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). On 17 August 2023, the price of a bitcoin was $26,600.98.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $18,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $18,500 and $21,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $21,000 but less than $23,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $23,500 and $26,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $26,000 but less than $28,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $28,500 and $31,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $31,000 but less than $33,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $33,500 and $36,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than $36,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"}},"choices":["Less than $18,500","Between $18,500 and $21,000, inclusive","More than $21,000 but less than $23,500","Between $23,500 and $26,000, inclusive","More than $26,000 but less than $28,500","Between $28,500 and $31,000, inclusive","More than $31,000 but less than $33,500","Between $33,500 and $36,000, inclusive","More than $36,000"],"target":"More than $36,000"}
{"Question":"As of 1 January 2024, how many US states will have banned by law natural gas appliances in all new residential construction?","Started_time":"2023-05-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Environment","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"In May 2023, the state of New York became the first state to ban \"fossil-fuel equipment\" in some new buildings starting in 2026 and others in 2029 (USA Today, CNN, NY State Assembly - A03006C, see \"Part RR\"). The date the bans would take effect would be immaterial, and bans with limited exceptions (e.g., for buildings without access to an electrical grid) would count. Bans imposed by political subdivisions of states (e.g., cities, counties) would be immaterial (Building Decarbonization Coalition). A ban would have to include single and multifamily occupancy buildings, and if a state imposed then repealed a ban as of 1 January 2024, the repealed ban would not count (Tech 24 Construction).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"1"}
{"Question":"Will UN-sanctioned national elections be held in Libya in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-28","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Abdoulaye Bathily, head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, has said that elections in the war-torn country are possible in 2023, though obstacles remain (UN Security Council, Libya Herald, US Institute of Peace). The holding of either presidential or parliamentary elections would count. The question would close early upon an official announcement from the UN that elections will not take place in 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.78%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.22%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen or a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-04-21","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Environment","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Drought, conflict, and other factors have left millions in Yemen and the Horn of Africa facing potential famine (NPR, PBS, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the countries in the Horn of Africa are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda (Britannica). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11.22%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88.78%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the Supreme Court of Israel outright strike down the 2023 amendment to Basic Law: The Judiciary regarding the \"reasonableness\" standard?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 24 July 2023, Israel's parliament, the Knesset, passed an amendment to a Basic Law, a quasi-constitutional provision of Israeli law, that would prohibit the Supreme Court (also known as the High Court of Israel when exercising original jurisdiction) from blocking decisions made by the government regarding appointments and administrative matters on the basis of \"reasonableness\" (CNN, Israel Policy Forum - Judicial Legislation Tracker, American Jewish Committee, Brookings Institution, Knesset - Basic Law: The Judiciary). The hearing on eight challenges to the amendment to the Basic Law is scheduled for 12 September 2023 (Supreme Court of Israel [in Hebrew], ABC News). The question will close upon the handing down of the court's decision on the case or other final action (e.g., dismissal), and a decision on any of the petitions before the court that outright strikes down the amendment would count. If the court does not reach a decision on the challenges to the amendment before 1 December 2023, the suspend date will be extended.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the full US House of Representatives vote on impeaching President Joe Biden before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-09-15","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"Speaker of the House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy announced 12 September 2023 that he was directing committees to open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden (Twitter, Axios). Only votes by the full House of Representatives will count (Congressional Research Service). The question will not close early upon a full House vote to not impeach President Biden.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the full House will vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, but the full House will not vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the full House will vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden","Yes, but the full House will not vote in the affirmative to impeach President Biden","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) authorize SpaceX to launch a third flight of Starship Super Heavy before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-11-24","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Policy"],"Description":"After a more successful, though not completely successful, second test of SpaceX's Starship on 18 November 2023, Elon Musk has said that they could be ready for a third test within three to four weeks (Space.com, Isp.page, Payload, Space.com). License authorization for the second flight was given on 15 November 2023 (X [fka Twitter], US News & World Report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the US National Mediation Board (NMB) report that a \"cooling off\" period has begun for an airline pilot union and a major airline engaged in contract negotiations before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-05-26","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Politics"],"Description":"While American Airlines reached a tentative deal with its pilot union in May 2023, negotiations were still ongoing for United and Southwest (CNBC). Under the procedures laid out in the Railway Labor Act, which also governs airlines, the parties to a labor negotiation enter a \"cooling-off\" period once the National Mediation Board determines that mediation has failed to produce an agreement and either or both parties reject binding arbitration (Freight Waves, NMB - Collective Bargaining Flow Chart, NMB - Press Release re Railroad Workers Negotiations). For the purposes of this question, a \"major airline\" is Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United Airlines, or Southwest Airlines.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.40%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.60%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in continental Europe either directed or executed by one or more Saheli jihadist groups resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-04-14","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by EU law (European Council, see \"EU definition of terrorism\"). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count. Whether a CCTA is either directed or executed by one or more Saheli jihadist groups will be determined using credible, open-source reporting (UN - List of Sahel Countries, CSIS). \"Continental Europe\" includes the territory on the continent of any country that is part of the European single market (Gov.uk - Countries in the EU and EEA, does not include the UK).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.97%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.03%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will American journalist Evan Gershkovich leave Russia?","Started_time":"2023-07-14","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested in Russia on 29 March 2023 for espionage, a claim he denies (ABC News). US officials have said that there have been discussions with Russia on a possible prisoner exchange (The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many of the 50 largest commercial banks in the US will fail in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-10","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","US Policy"],"Description":"The failure of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 has sent shock waves through financial markets (FDIC, CNBC, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the 50 largest commercial banks in the US are the top 50 as listed by the Federal Reserve as of 31 December 2022 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, a bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcomes. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"3"}
{"Question":"Will federal legislation reducing or eliminating clean hydrogen and\/or carbon sequestration tax credits become law before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-05-16","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"As part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) signed by President Biden in 2022, tax credits were created for the production of clean hydrogen and expanded for carbon sequestration, but Republicans have proposed the repeal of clean hydrogen tax credits and discussed changing carbon sequestration tax credits (The Hill, Resources for the Future, Brownstein, 26 U.S. Code \u00a7 45V - Clean Hydrogen, 26 U.S. Code \u00a7 45Q - Carbon Sequestration). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial, and pertinent changes to sections other than 45V and 45Q that would reduce or eliminate clean hydrogen and\/or carbon sequestration tax credits in terms of amount or duration would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only clean hydrogen tax credits":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Yes, only carbon sequestration tax credits":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, both clean hydrogen and carbon sequestration tax credits":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"}},"choices":["Yes, only clean hydrogen tax credits","Yes, only carbon sequestration tax credits","Yes, both clean hydrogen and carbon sequestration tax credits","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will Disney publicly announce an agreement to sell all of its ownership stake in the streaming service Hulu?","Started_time":"2023-03-03","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Entertainment"],"Description":"Disney currently owns two-thirds of Hulu, with Comcast owning the remaining third and each having options to compel the other to buy or sell their stakes in the company in January 2024 (Hollywood Reporter, CNBC, SEC). The effective date of a sale would be immaterial, but the buyer or buyers must be party to the agreement but not necessarily named.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.78%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91.22%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will all four reactor units at the Barakah nuclear power plant have begun commercial operation?","Started_time":"2023-02-02","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Construction began on the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in 2012, with two of its four reactors having already begun commercial operations (Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, NUCNET - 6 April 2021, NUCNET - 24 March 2022). As of the launch of this question, the third reactor was nearing commercial operation, while construction on the fourth and final was nearing completion (NUCNET - 13 December 2022, Yonhap News Agency). Whether commerical operations are stopped or suspended after beginning would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.46%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.54%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, both Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin have each brought up the potential for peace talks (NPR, Axios). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. An acting president under the constitution of the relevant country would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.31%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.69%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-13","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The last federal shutdown occurred in December 2018 to January 2019, and current appropriations would expire on 30 September 2023 (Congressional Research Service, ABC News, H.R.2617). For the purposes of this question, a \"shutdown of the US federal government\" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation. A partial shutdown would count (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.06%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.94%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will Rishi Sunak cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Rishi Sunak was appointed as the UK's prime minister on 25 October 2022, the third UK PM in 2022 (BBC, CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9.30%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.70%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will a new parliamentary election be called in Canada?","Started_time":"2023-02-01","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"There is speculation that Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau may call for early parliamentary elections in 2023 (Politico, CBC). For early elections to be called, the Governor General, usually at the request of the prime minister, must dissolve parliament and issue election writs (Elections Canada, Twitter - Governor General of Canada, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Dissolving Parliament, Canadian Gazette - Proclamation Issuing Election Writs). A by-election would not count (Elections Canada).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 July 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2023 and 31 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Not before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Before 1 July 2023","Between 1 July 2023 and 31 December 2023","Not before 1 January 2024"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2024"}
{"Question":"When will a ride-hailing service open to the public, which uses autonomous vehicles, be launched and\/or tested on public roads in Dubai with passengers?","Started_time":"2022-11-08","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Dubai aims to be a leading location in the deployment of autonomous vehicles and has an agreement with Cruise for the deployment of a ride-hailing service by 2023, with mapping and testing commencing in July 2022 (Dubai Roads and Transport Authority, The National). The service, while operating or testing, must include members of the public as passengers to count. A service that operates along a fixed route (e.g., shuttles) would not count. A service involving back-up drivers present in the vehicle would not count, but a service involving remote back-up operators would count. A qualifying service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use would count, and payment for service is not required.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2023 and 30 April 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Not before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2023","Between 1 January 2023 and 30 April 2023","Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023","Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023","Not before 1 January 2024"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2024"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will a nuclear device be detonated somewhere in the world?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As of the launch of this question, it is generally believed that no fewer than nine countries in the world have nuclear weapons (Arms Control Association, Federation of American Scientists). Whether a detonation is characterized as a test, an accident, a warning, or an attack would be immaterial, and the detonation of a device in orbit around Earth would count. A radiological device (aka \"dirty bomb\") would not count (Mass.gov). Whether or not a nuclear device has been detonated will be determined using credible open source media reporting. That determination must be made during the question's open period to count, as well as the detonation.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.77%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.23%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Dina Boluarte cease to be the president of Peru before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-01-27","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Protests in Peru have continued since President Castillo was removed from office by the Congress, with protests calling for, among other things, President Dina Boluarte to resign (BBC, Voice of America, NPR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.77%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.23%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Island (News.com.au, Business Insider, Taipei Times, Yahoo).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.37%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.63%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?","Started_time":"2022-12-30","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005, and seeking an agreement was discussed on President Xi Jinping's December 2022 visit to Saudi Arabia (China Ministry of Commerce, Voice of America, Middle East Eye, GCC). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., New Zeeland Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.93%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.07%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2022-10-26","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Over two years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain (Diplomat, The Hindu, Outlook India, Devdiscourse). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9.32%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.68%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the water level at Lake Powell fall below the minimum power pool elevation of 3,490 feet in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-23","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Environment","US Policy"],"Description":"Amid historic drought and high demand, water levels are so low at Lake Powell, a reservoir in Arizona and Utah, that hydroelectric power generation is threatened (Las Vegas Review Journal, 12News). The minimum power pool elevation, the minimum level of the lake necessary to generate electricity, is 3,490 feet (US Bureau of Reclamation - 2-Year Probabilistic Projections). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Bureau of Reclamation (US Bureau of Reclamation - Upper Colorado Region Historic Data). Select \"Reservoir\" under \"Water Operations: Historic Data,\" change \"SELECT SITE\" to \"LAKE POWELL,\" select the range of data you want, and check only \"Elevation (feet)\" on the left, \"Data Table\" on the right, and click \"Submit.\" On 1 December 2022, the elevation of Lake Powell was 3527.89 feet.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.64%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.36%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will elections for the Kurdistan Parliament be held in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-14","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In October 2022, the Kurdistan Parliament extended its current term because political parties in the regional party could not come to an agreement on holding elections in 2022 as planned (Kurdistan24, Al Arabiya, Parliament.krd). The question would close early upon the official announcement that parliamentary elections will not take place in 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9.90%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.10%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will doctors attempt an organ xenotransplantation (organ transplant from a nonhuman animal to a human) on a live human patient in the European Union before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2022-02-04","Closed_time":"2024-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"In early 2022, doctors in Maryland transplanted a genetically modified pig heart into a human patient (NBC News, CBS Baltimore). For the purposes of this question, an \"organ\" would be a heart, intestine, kidney, liver, lung, or pancreas (Cleveland Clinic). The xenotransplantation attempt must take place in an EU member state to count, though the nationality of the doctors and patient would be immaterial. For information on the current state of EU policy on the matter, see: https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/RegData\/etudes\/ATAG\/2022\/697212\/EPRS_ATA(2022)697212_EN.pdf.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16.11%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83.89%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the AFC North division in the 2023 season?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2023-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Baltimore Ravens":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Cincinnati Bengals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Cleveland Browns":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Pittsburgh Steelers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Baltimore Ravens","Cincinnati Bengals","Cleveland Browns","Pittsburgh Steelers"],"target":"Baltimore Ravens"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 29 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The S&P 500 Index is one of the most followed indices for equity markets in the world (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3,455":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,455 and 3,725, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,725 but less than 3,995":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,995 and 4,265, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4,265 but less than 4,535":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 4,535 and 4,805, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"More than 4,805 but less than 5,075":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Between 5,075 and 5,345, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5,345":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3,455","Between 3,455 and 3,725, inclusive","More than 3,725 but less than 3,995","Between 3,995 and 4,265, inclusive","More than 4,265 but less than 4,535","Between 4,535 and 4,805, inclusive","More than 4,805 but less than 5,075","Between 5,075 and 5,345, inclusive","More than 5,345"],"target":"Between 4,535 and 4,805, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 29 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-04","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The Bank of Japan has been loosening its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy in recent years, with more changes or even an abolition of the YCC expected in the near future (CNBC, US News & World Report, Bank of Japan). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to \"1Y\" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Japanese 10-year bond on 28 July 2023 was 0.5560%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 0.5000%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 0.5000% and 0.7500%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than 0.7500% but less than 1.0000%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.0000% and 1.2500%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.2500% but less than 1.5000%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1.5000% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 0.5000%","Between 0.5000% and 0.7500%, inclusive","More than 0.7500% but less than 1.0000%","Between 1.0000% and 1.2500%, inclusive","More than 1.2500% but less than 1.5000%","1.5000% or more"],"target":"Between 0.5000% and 0.7500%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) begin trading on a US exchange before 30 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-30","Closed_time":"2023-12-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Attempts to create a bitcoin ETF in the US continue, with asset manager BlackRock making an application with the SEC in June 2023 (Investopedia, US News & World Report, Yahoo). ETFs for bitcoin derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.25%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.75%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the percentage change in the value of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2023 as compared to 2022?","Started_time":"2023-04-12","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["Man Group\u2019s Good Question Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by MSCI (MSCI - Emerging Markets, MSCI - Emerging Markets Index Chart, hover cursor over chart for data). The percentage change in the latest value dated in 2023 as compared to the latest value dated in 2022. The change in 2022 from 2021 was -20.09% (486.057\/608.266-1 = -20.09%).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down by more than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Down by between 10.0% and 20.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between down less than 10.0% and up less than 10.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Up by between 10.0% and 20.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Up by more than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Down by more than 20.0%","Down by between 10.0% and 20.0%, inclusive","Between down less than 10.0% and up less than 10.0%","Up by between 10.0% and 20.0%, inclusive","Up by more than 20.0%"],"target":"Between down less than 10.0% and up less than 10.0%"}
{"Question":"How many US states will have five or more public hydrogen fueling stations as of 29 December 2023, according to Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC)?","Started_time":"2022-10-25","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Environment","US Policy"],"Description":"As US policy pushes for more alternative fuels, there are efforts to expand the availability and use of hydrogen fuel (US News & World Report, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the AFDC at approximately 5:00PM ET on Friday 29 December 2023 (AFDC, click \"Download Results\" for a file listing all public stations and their locations). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Zero or 1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"2 to 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"5 to 7":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"8 to 10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"11 to 13":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"14 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Zero or 1","2 to 4","5 to 7","8 to 10","11 to 13","14 or more"],"target":"Zero or 1"}
{"Question":"What will be the price per tonne of lithium carbonate in China on 29 December 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-23","Closed_time":"2023-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"As demand for batteries soars while much of the world works to decarbonize, prices for lithium carbonate have risen more than tenfold from December 2021 to December 2023 (Yahoo Finance, NPR, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Chinese price data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, select \"1Yr\" on the lower left of the chart). On 20 December 2022, the price per tonne was CNY552,500.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than CNY200,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between CNY200,000 and CNY325,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than CNY325,000 but less than CNY450,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between CNY450,000 and CNY575,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than CNY575,000 but less than CNY700,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"CNY700,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than CNY200,000","Between CNY200,000 and CNY325,000, inclusive","More than CNY325,000 but less than CNY450,000","Between CNY450,000 and CNY575,000, inclusive","More than CNY575,000 but less than CNY700,000","CNY700,000 or more"],"target":"Less than CNY200,000"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 27 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-21","Closed_time":"2023-12-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The Federal Reserve's plan for reducing the size of its balance sheet was interrupted by bank failures in the US (CNBC, US News & World Report, Reuters, chart cited in US News link, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 26 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve, with \"Zoom\" set to \"1 y\" (Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve - Table Format (data table)). As of 12 April 2023, the Total Assets of the Federal Reserve were $8,614,797 million, or $8.614797 trillion.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $7.7 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"},"Between $7.7 trillion and $8.0 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"More than $8.0 trillion but less than $8.3 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $8.3 trillion and $8.6 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $8.6 trillion but less than $8.9 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $8.9 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $7.7 trillion","Between $7.7 trillion and $8.0 trillion, inclusive","More than $8.0 trillion but less than $8.3 trillion","Between $8.3 trillion and $8.6 trillion, inclusive","More than $8.6 trillion but less than $8.9 trillion","More than $8.9 trillion"],"target":"Between $7.7 trillion and $8.0 trillion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 28 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-12","Closed_time":"2023-12-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","US Politics"],"Description":"Mortgage rates have fallen from two-decade highs above 7%, but remain elevated as compared with recent history as the Federal Reserve decides on the course of interest rates (CNN, CNBC, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 4 May 2023, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 6.39%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 4.25%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4.25% and 5.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 5.00% but lower than 5.75%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5.75% and 6.50%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Higher than 6.50% but lower than 7.25%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"7.25% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Lower than 4.25%","Between 4.25% and 5.00%, inclusive","Higher than 5.00% but lower than 5.75%","Between 5.75% and 6.50%, inclusive","Higher than 6.50% but lower than 7.25%","7.25% or more"],"target":"Higher than 6.50% but lower than 7.25%"}
{"Question":"What will happen next regarding the FDIC's standard maximum deposit insurance amount limit?","Started_time":"2023-03-17","Closed_time":"2023-12-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Amid bank failure fallout, some are suggesting that the FDIC should increase the $250,000 maximum of deposit insurance at US banks (NPR, Politico, DNYUZ, Investopedia, Cornell, see (a)(1)(E)). Specific actions taken by the Federal Reserve and\/or the executive branch that have the effect of covering deposits in excess of $250,000 would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC). The date that legislation would take effect is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Legislation to increase the limit from the current $250,000 will become law":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Legislation to abolish the limit will become law":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Neither will occur before 28 December 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Legislation to increase the limit from the current $250,000 will become law","Legislation to abolish the limit will become law","Neither will occur before 28 December 2023"],"target":"Neither will occur before 28 December 2023"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the NFC North division in the 2023 season?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2023-12-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Chicago Bears":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Detroit Lions":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Green Bay Packers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Minnesota Vikings":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Chicago Bears","Detroit Lions","Green Bay Packers","Minnesota Vikings"],"target":"Detroit Lions"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will an OPEC member country announce that it will leave the organization?","Started_time":"2023-03-10","Closed_time":"2023-12-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has refuted reports that it plans to leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) amid policy differences between the UAE and Saudi Arabia (CNBC, Middle East Eye). Qatar and other member countries have left the organization before (Twitter, CNBC, CSIS). As of the launch of this question, there were 13 OPEC member countries (OPEC). The date the country would cease to be a member of OPEC is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.21%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.79%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 15 January 2024, will a US court rule or state-level electoral authority announce that Donald Trump is ineligible to become president pursuant to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2023-12-19","Challenges_list":["2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As the 2024 election cycle approaches, there are calls to consider whether Donald Trump is barred from the office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution due to actions on 6 January 2021 in Washington, DC (ABC News, NBC News, Politico). Section 3 states that no person who held federal or state office who \"engaged in insurrection or rebellion\" against the US can hold any federal or state office (Cornell). Appeals and litigation subsequent to a ruling or announcement are immaterial. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state, and a ruling in either a state or federal court would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 15 December 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2023-12-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 14 December 2023 and the outcome determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 25 August 2023, Biden's approval rating was 41.4%. The data for 15 December 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 19 December 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 36.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 36.0% and 38.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Higher than 38.5% but lower than 41.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Between 41.0% and 43.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher than 43.5% but lower than 46.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 46.0% and 48.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 48.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 36.0%","Between 36.0% and 38.5%, inclusive","Higher than 38.5% but lower than 41.0%","Between 41.0% and 43.5%, inclusive","Higher than 43.5% but lower than 46.0%","Between 46.0% and 48.5%, inclusive","Higher than 48.5%"],"target":"Higher than 38.5% but lower than 41.0%"}
{"Question":"What will be the yield for US 10-year Treasury securities on 15 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The yield (or interest rate) of the 10-year Treasury is a major benchmark for finance in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 14 December 2023 and the outcome determined using US Treasury data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected the following week (FRED). For 14 August 2023, the yield was 4.19%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 3.20%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.20% and 3.60%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher than 3.60% but lower than 4.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Between 4.00% and 4.40%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"Higher than 4.40% but lower than 4.80%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 4.80% and 5.20%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 5.20% but lower than 5.60%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5.60% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 3.20%","Between 3.20% and 3.60%, inclusive","Higher than 3.60% but lower than 4.00%","Between 4.00% and 4.40%, inclusive","Higher than 4.40% but lower than 4.80%","Between 4.80% and 5.20%, inclusive","Higher than 5.20% but lower than 5.60%","5.60% or higher"],"target":"Higher than 3.60% but lower than 4.00%"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and\/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 16 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-16","Closed_time":"2023-12-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"NATO continues to support Ukraine's defense against Russia without direct involvement (Politico, Newsweek). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and\/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 31 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered \"national military forces and\/or law enforcement\" (e.g., AP, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.96%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.04%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under \"Assessed Russian Control\" before 15 December 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?","Started_time":"2023-08-04","Closed_time":"2023-12-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (Newsweek, AP, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW, labeled \"The Autonomous Republic of Crimea\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 August 2023 and 30 November 2023, how many total fatalities will occur in Niger due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?","Started_time":"2023-08-04","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"A military coup in the West African country of Niger in late July 2023 has raised fears of greater instability in the conflict-torn region (AP, NBC News, France 24). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED Dashboard). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the \"EVENT DATE\" range as appropriate, (2) for \"EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for \"REGION,\" select only \"Niger\" under \"Western Africa,\" (4) for \"FATALITIES,\" leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for \"ACTOR TYPE,\" select all, (6) for \"INTERACTION,\" select all, and click \"APPLY FILTERS.\" Click \"EVENT COUNT\" above the chart and change the selection to \"FATALITIES.\" Data will be accessed for resolution on 15 December 2023. As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 47 total fatalities in April 2023 (22 attributed to \"Violence against civilians,\" 14 attributed to \"Battles,\" 8 attributed to \"Explosions\/Remote violence,\" 3 attributed to \"Strategic developments,\" and none attributed to \"Riots\" or \"Protests\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 100":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 100 and 250, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 250 but fewer than 500":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"Between 500 and 1,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 100","Between 100 and 250, inclusive","More than 250 but fewer than 500","Between 500 and 1,000, inclusive","More than 1,000"],"target":"More than 250 but fewer than 500"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for the Emirate of Dubai in November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-02","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Dubai Statistics Center (Dubai Statistics Center - Prices, see \"Annual Percentage Change\" reports). The figure in the PDF file will be used for resolution. In November 2022, annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index was 4.68% (Annual Percentage Change in Consumer Price Index 2022, see \"General Index\" row).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 0.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher by between 0.00% and 2.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"Higher by more than 2.00% but less than 4.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"Higher by between 4.00% and 6.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Higher by more than 6.00% but less than 8.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"8.00% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 0.00%","Higher by between 0.00% and 2.00%, inclusive","Higher by more than 2.00% but less than 4.00%","Higher by between 4.00% and 6.00%, inclusive","Higher by more than 6.00% but less than 8.00%","8.00% or higher"],"target":"Higher by more than 2.00% but less than 4.00%"}
{"Question":"Before 15 December 2023, will Tesla announce that Elon Musk has ceased or will cease to be the company's sole CEO?","Started_time":"2022-12-23","Closed_time":"2023-12-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, has been under pressure as his time has been divided among other ventures, including Twitter (CNN, CNBC). An announced leave of absence or addition of a co-CEO would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.28%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.72%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will COP28 result in an agreement that includes explicit language committing to phase out all fossil fuels for energy production by a specific date?","Started_time":"2023-11-17","Closed_time":"2023-12-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Environment","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"The 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) is scheduled to be held from 30 November 2023 through 12 December 2023 in Dubai, UAE (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, COP28.com). Advocates have been pushing for a commitment to phase out all fossil fuels, but no such commitment has been adopted (Earth.org, Amnesty International, UN.org). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2023 and the outcome determined once all decisions from the summit have been published. The specific date is immaterial, but it must be a fixed point in the future, whether it be a specific day, a month, or a year. A fixed term (e.g., within 50 years of this meeting) would also count. The agreement must be adopted by \"consensus\" to count (Climalia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 13 December 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-07-28","Closed_time":"2023-12-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 12-13 December 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and\/or armored vehicles before 13 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-10-13","Closed_time":"2023-12-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Middle East in Focus","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Israel is fighting Hamas and others in Gaza, there are fears that conflict could spread to include Lebanon, specifically Iran-backed Hezbollah (BBC, CNN, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and\/or armored vehicles, cross the \"Blue Line\" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (UN Interim Force in Lebanon, Britannica - Armoured Vehicle). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Inflation in the US has been cooling in 2023 but remains above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% (US News & World Report, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for November 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for \"All items\" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in December 2023 (FRED, click \"EDIT GRAPH\" and change \"Units\" to \"Percentage Change from Year Ago\"). For December 2022, the change was 6.44494%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Up by less than 1.600% or down":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Up by between 1.600% and 2.200%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Up by more than 2.200% but less than 2.800%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Up by more than 3.400% but less than 4.000%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"Up by between 4.000% and 4.600%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Up by more than 4.600%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Up by less than 1.600% or down","Up by between 1.600% and 2.200%, inclusive","Up by more than 2.200% but less than 2.800%","Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive","Up by more than 3.400% but less than 4.000%","Up by between 4.000% and 4.600%, inclusive","Up by more than 4.600%"],"target":"Up by between 2.800% and 3.400%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for utility natural gas service in November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-26","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Policy"],"Description":"Natural gas prices around the world have begun to recede from the record highs reached after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with prices in the US collapsing   (CBS News, FRED - Global price of Natural gas, EU, US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in December 2023 (FRED, BLS). As of the launch of this question, the value of the CPI for \"utility (piped) gas service\" in March 2023 was 241.144.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 160.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 160.000 and 180.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 180.000 but less than 200.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 200.000 and 220.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"More than 220.000 but less than 240.000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"240.000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Less than 160.000","Between 160.000 and 180.000, inclusive","More than 180.000 but less than 200.000","Between 200.000 and 220.000, inclusive","More than 220.000 but less than 240.000","240.000 or more"],"target":"More than 220.000 but less than 240.000"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for electricity in November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-26","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Policy"],"Description":"US electricity prices jumped as global natural gas supplies were heavily impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but they have begun to fall in early 2023 (CBS News, USA Today, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using seasonally adjusted Bureau of Labor Statistics data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in December 2023 (FRED, BLS). As of the launch of this question, the value of the CPI for electricity in March 2023 was 267.897.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 220.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 220.000 and 235.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 235.000 but less than 250.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 250.000 and 265.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 265.000 but less than 280.000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"},"280.000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Less than 220.000","Between 220.000 and 235.000, inclusive","More than 235.000 but less than 250.000","Between 250.000 and 265.000, inclusive","More than 265.000 but less than 280.000","280.000 or more"],"target":"More than 265.000 but less than 280.000"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2023 Major League Soccer (MLS) Cup final?","Started_time":"2023-08-25","Closed_time":"2023-12-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"MLS is the top soccer (football) league in the US and Canada (MLS Soccer - About). The MLS Cup final is scheduled for 9 December 2023 (MLS Soccer).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"FC Cincinnati":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Inter Miami CF":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Los Angeles FC":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"New England Revolution":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Philadelphia Union":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"St. Louis City SC":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Seattle Sounders FC":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"}},"choices":["FC Cincinnati","Inter Miami CF","Los Angeles FC","New England Revolution","Philadelphia Union","St. Louis City SC","Seattle Sounders FC","Another team"],"target":"Another team"}
{"Question":"When will the United States announce the imposition of sanctions on any Israeli or Israelis for involvement in attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank?","Started_time":"2023-11-20","Closed_time":"2023-12-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"US officials have stated that they are considering imposing sanctions against Israeli West Bank settlers associated with violence against Palestinians (Politico, The Hill, Axios). For the purposes of this question, any sanctions that would limit an Israeli citizen's ability to visit the US or engage in commerce with the US would count. The mere announcement of a framework outlining who may be eligible to be sanctioned would not count, and the date the sanctions would take effect is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 12 December 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 12 December 2023 and 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 2 January 2024 and 22 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Not before 23 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"}},"choices":["Before 12 December 2023","Between 12 December 2023 and 1 January 2024","Between 2 January 2024 and 22 January 2024","Not before 23 January 2024"],"target":"Before 12 December 2023"}
{"Question":"When will Italy give written notice to China that it will terminate its agreement for the Belt and Road Initiative?","Started_time":"2023-05-12","Closed_time":"2023-12-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Italy signed a memorandum of understanding with China on 23 March 2019 to join the latter's Belt and Road Initiative, which would be automatically extended through at least 2029 unless Italy gives written notice to China that it is terminating the agreement (Al Jazeera, Italian Government, US News & World Report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 July 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2023 and 30 September 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"Not before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"}},"choices":["Before 1 July 2023","Between 1 July 2023 and 30 September 2023","Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023","Not before 1 January 2024"],"target":"Between 1 October 2023 and 31 December 2023"}
{"Question":"Will Twitter, Inc. file for bankruptcy in the US before 2 December 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-18","Closed_time":"2023-12-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Twitter has seen the departure of senior executives, advertising pauses by clients, and other developments since Elon Musk took the company private in late October 2022, with Musk mentioning the possibility of bankruptcy for the firm (CNBC, US News & World Report, NPR, Investopedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.83%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.17%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the value for the informal US dollar to Argentine peso exchange rate (aka \"blue dollar\" rate) on 30 November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-19","Closed_time":"2023-11-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Argentine peso has hit historic lows against the US dollar in both official and informal exchange rates as inflation reached 100% and with political uncertainty surrounding elections scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2023 (BBC, AP, Buenos Aires Times). The question will be suspended on 29 November 2023 and the outcome determined using chart data for 30 November 2023 as reported by Blue Dollar (Blue Dollar, set \"Zoom\" to \"1Y\"). The Argentine presidential election is scheduled for 22 October 2023, with a runoff on 19 November 2023, if needed (teleSUR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 400":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 400 and 500, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 500 but lower than 600":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 600 and 700, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 700 but lower than 850":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 850 and 1,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"},"Higher than 1,000 but lower than 1,400":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"1,400 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 400","Between 400 and 500, inclusive","Higher than 500 but lower than 600","Between 600 and 700, inclusive","Higher than 700 but lower than 850","Between 850 and 1,000, inclusive","Higher than 1,000 but lower than 1,400","1,400 or more"],"target":"Between 850 and 1,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 30 November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-08-18","Closed_time":"2023-11-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","\"Right!\" said FRED: Q4 2023 Finance and Economics Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Mortgage rates have hovered around multi-decade highs in mid-2023, but many banks and financial institutions expect them to fall in the near term (Yahoo). The question will be suspended 29 November 2023 and the outcome determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 1 December 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 6.49%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 6.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.00% and 6.30%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 6.30% but lower than 6.60%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.60% and 6.90%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 6.90% but lower than 7.20%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Between 7.20% and 7.50%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"},"More than 7.50%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Lower than 6.00%","Between 6.00% and 6.30%, inclusive","Higher than 6.30% but lower than 6.60%","Between 6.60% and 6.90%, inclusive","Higher than 6.90% but lower than 7.20%","Between 7.20% and 7.50%, inclusive","More than 7.50%"],"target":"Between 7.20% and 7.50%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2023 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?","Started_time":"2023-05-12","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"Researchers at Colorado State University have predicted a \"slightly below-average\" Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2023 to 30 November 2023  (The Hill, Colorado State University). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2023 and the outcome determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center no later than 16 December 2023 (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"3 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4 and 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 7 and 9":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"},"Between 10 and 12":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 13 and 15":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"16 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["3 or fewer","Between 4 and 6","Between 7 and 9","Between 10 and 12","Between 13 and 15","16 or more"],"target":"Between 7 and 9"}
{"Question":"Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and\/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-31","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (CNBC, Politico). For the purposes of this question, \"territorial waters\" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan. Military drones would count, but balloons would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.49%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.51%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and\/or Vietnam before 1 December 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-16","Closed_time":"2023-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (VNExpress, AP, CSIS, Council on Foreign Relations, Diplomat). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.77%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.23%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 9 April 2024, will Israel publicly announce or acknowledge a hostage\/prisoner exchange with a group holding one or more Israelis captured in the attack in southern Israel in early October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-10-08","Closed_time":"2023-11-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Hamas, the de facto ruler of the Gaza Strip, has reportedly taken over 100 Israelis hostage during its attack on southern Israel in October 2023 (Guardian, NBC News). The exchange of persons must be completed to count, though it need not involve all captured Israelis. Releasing persons to third parties, including the transfer of jailed prisoners to other countries, in accordance with an agreement would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will Israel publicly announce the beginning of a ceasefire in the whole Gaza Strip?","Started_time":"2023-11-07","Closed_time":"2023-11-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip continue, there are repeated calls for a ceasefire that Israel says it would entertain if all of its hostages were released (Axios). Whether the ceasefire is unilateral or part of an agreement between belligerents is immaterial, and whether the ceasefire holds for its intended duration is immaterial. Conditional announcements (e.g., if all hostages are released) would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 14 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Between 28 November 2023 and 11 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 12 December 2023 and 25 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Not before 26 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"}},"choices":["Before 14 November 2023","Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023","Between 28 November 2023 and 11 December 2023","Between 12 December 2023 and 25 December 2023","Not before 26 December 2023"],"target":"Between 14 November 2023 and 27 November 2023"}
{"Question":"How many seats will the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging in Dutch, or BBB) party win in the 2023 Dutch House of Representatives elections?","Started_time":"2023-07-14","Closed_time":"2023-11-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The BBB surprised many with a strong showing in the March 2023 Senate elections and is polling highly with new House of Representatives elections expected in November 2023 following Prime Minister Mark Rutte's resignation in July 2023 (BBC, AP, NPR). Unlike many parliamentary systems, the Dutch have a relatively low minimum threshold for a party to win a seat (Kiesraad.nl\u00a0[in Dutch]). The next Dutch House of Representatives elections are scheduled for 22 November 2023 (Yahoo).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 18":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between 18 and 21":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 22 and 25":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 26 and 29":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 30 and 33":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 33":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 18","Between 18 and 21","Between 22 and 25","Between 26 and 29","Between 30 and 33","More than 33"],"target":"Fewer than 18"}
{"Question":"When will North Korea next successfully put a satellite into orbit?","Started_time":"2023-09-29","Closed_time":"2023-11-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As of 28 September, North Korea  had twice failed in attempts to launch a spy satellite in 2023, but it plans to try again (NPR, AP). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (38 North). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Not before 1 July 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2024","Between 1 January 2024 and 31 March 2024","Between 1 April 2024 and 30 June 2024","Not before 1 July 2024"],"target":"Before 1 January 2024"}
{"Question":"What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 22 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?","Started_time":"2023-11-08","Closed_time":"2023-11-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2023)"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Average gas prices nationwide fell in October 2023 despite the outbreak of violence in the Middle East, but concerns over energy supplies remain (USA Today). The question will be suspended on 21 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 22 November 2023 (AAA, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $3.03":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $3.03 and $3.18, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than $3.18 but less than $3.33":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"Between $3.33 and $3.48, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"More than $3.48 but less than $3.63":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $3.63 and $3.78, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $3.78":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $3.03","Between $3.03 and $3.18, inclusive","More than $3.18 but less than $3.33","Between $3.33 and $3.48, inclusive","More than $3.48 but less than $3.63","Between $3.63 and $3.78, inclusive","More than $3.78"],"target":"More than $3.18 but less than $3.33"}
{"Question":"Will US federal criminal charges be filed against Changpeng Zhao for actions related to the operation of Binance and\/or Binance.US before 30 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-23","Closed_time":"2023-11-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology","US Policy"],"Description":"Zhao, the founder of Binance, is already facing civil complaints from the CFTC and SEC related to the operation of the cryptocurrency exchange, though no criminal charges have yet been filed (Ars Technica, Coin Telegraph, Coin Telegraph, CFTC, SEC). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (Cornell, see Definition (1), Legal Beagle).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 20 November 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?","Started_time":"2023-05-19","Closed_time":"2023-11-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting lower gas prices in the second half of 2023, though OPEC is acting to support petroleum prices (EIA - Short-term Energy Outlook May 2023, Energy Now). The question will be suspended on 19 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 20 November 2023 (AAA, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $2.40":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.40 and $2.70, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $2.70 but less than $3.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $3.00 and $3.30, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"More than $3.30 but less than $3.60":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"Between $3.60 and $3.90, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $3.90 but less than $4.20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $4.20 and $4.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $4.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $2.40","Between $2.40 and $2.70, inclusive","More than $2.70 but less than $3.00","Between $3.00 and $3.30, inclusive","More than $3.30 but less than $3.60","Between $3.60 and $3.90, inclusive","More than $3.90 but less than $4.20","Between $4.20 and $4.50, inclusive","More than $4.50"],"target":"More than $3.30 but less than $3.60"}
{"Question":"Before 20 November 2023, will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state to enter Egypt?","Started_time":"2023-10-20","Closed_time":"2023-11-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Pressure is mounting on Egypt, which is the only country other than Israel to share a border with the Gaza Strip, to allow refugees from Gaza into the country (ABC News, NBC News, Voice of America). Opening its border for individualized circumstances (e.g., medical evacuations) alone would not count. Allowing refugees to enter Egypt in order to continue on to a different location would count. An announcement alone without evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which candidate will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?","Started_time":"2023-10-25","Closed_time":"2023-11-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2023)","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"A presidential runoff election between the Peronist Sergio Massa and libertarian Javier Milei is set for 19 November 2023 (AP, BBC). Under Argentine law, a candidate for President or Vice-president can be replaced in certain circumstances, including the death of the candidate. In that event, a forecast for a candidate who ceases to be a candidate would be considered a forecast for the replacement candidate chosen by Argentine law (Argentina.gob.ar, see Article 61).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Sergio Massa":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Javier Milei":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"}},"choices":["Sergio Massa","Javier Milei"],"target":"Javier Milei"}
{"Question":"Which candidate will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election?","Started_time":"2023-07-07","Closed_time":"2023-11-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Argentinians are set to elect a new president this year, with incumbent President Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez not seeking reelection as the country deals with inflation and poor economic conditions (AP, El Pa\u00eds, US News & World Report, Americas Quarterly). Party primaries are scheduled for 13 August 2023, with the next presidential election scheduled for 22 October 2023 and a runoff on 19 November 2023 if needed (Buenos Aires Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Patricia Bullrich":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Horacio Rodr\u00edguez Larreta":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Sergio Massa":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Javier Milei":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Patricia Bullrich","Horacio Rodr\u00edguez Larreta","Sergio Massa","Javier Milei","Someone else"],"target":"Javier Milei"}
{"Question":"Which driver will finish in second (2nd) place for the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?","Started_time":"2023-07-14","Closed_time":"2023-11-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Sports"],"Description":"Max Verstappen, who won the 2022 World Drivers' Championship, held a commanding lead in the standings as of the British Grand Prix on 9 July 2023 (Bleacher Report). The question will be suspended on 25 November 2023, the day before the final race in the season (Formula 1 - Driver Standings, Formula 1 - Abu Dhabi Grand Prix).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fernando Alonso":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lewis Hamilton":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Sergio P\u00e9rez":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"George Russell":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Carlos Sainz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Max Verstappen":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another driver":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fernando Alonso","Lewis Hamilton","Sergio P\u00e9rez","George Russell","Carlos Sainz","Max Verstappen","Another driver"],"target":"Sergio P\u00e9rez"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2023 Men's Cricket World Cup?","Started_time":"2023-09-08","Closed_time":"2023-11-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The International Cricket Council's (ICC's) Men's Cricket World Cup in India is scheduled to begin 5 October 2023, with the final scheduled for 19 November 2023 (Cricket World Cup, ICC - The Three Formats of Cricket). If the final is canceled or postponed beyond 2023, the question will be voided.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Australia":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"England":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"India":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"New Zealand":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pakistan":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"South Africa":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Australia","England","India","New Zealand","Pakistan","South Africa","Another country"],"target":"Australia"}
{"Question":"Will the Harvard Crimson defeat the Yale Bulldogs in \"The Game\" in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-11-08","Closed_time":"2023-11-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2023)"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 139th playing of \"The Game,\" the annual college football game between the Harvard Crimson and Yale Bulldogs, is scheduled to take place at Yale Bowl Stadium on Saturday 18 November 2023 (Harvard Alumni). Yale leads Harvard in wins since 1875 with an all-time record of 69-61-8 (NCAA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 February 2024?","Started_time":"2023-10-20","Closed_time":"2023-11-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","City University of Hong Kong Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed (Space.com, Spaceflight Now, CNN). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"71%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will the city block including Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City be under the control of the Israeli forces?","Started_time":"2023-10-31","Closed_time":"2023-11-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Israeli forces are building in the north of the Gaza Strip as of late October 2023 (MSN, US News & World Report). Israel asserts that Hamas is using the Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City as a command center (US News & World Report, CNN). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of \"Israel's Operation in Gaza\" and open source reporting (ISW). The location of the city block including Al-Shifa hospital may be pulled up using the following coordinates: (31\u00b031\u203227\u2033N 34\u00b026\u203239\u2033E), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the coordinates in the parentheses. Per Google Maps, the block is bound by the following roads: Abu Baker Al-Razi, Ibn Sina, Shifa-Ezz Eldine Al-Qassam, and Ahmed Abd Al-Azez (Google Maps). Whether the structures on the block are damaged or destroyed is immaterial. ISW designating the block with \"Reported Israeli Clearing Operations\" alone would not count without corroboration as to control of the location. If ISW changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 14 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 14 November 2023 and 30 November 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"Between 1 December 2023 and 20 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 21 December 2023 and 12 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 13 January 2024 and 8 February 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Not before 9 February 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Before 14 November 2023","Between 14 November 2023 and 30 November 2023","Between 1 December 2023 and 20 December 2023","Between 21 December 2023 and 12 January 2024","Between 13 January 2024 and 8 February 2024","Not before 9 February 2024"],"target":"Between 14 November 2023 and 30 November 2023"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for the Chinese 10-year bond on 13 November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-10-25","Closed_time":"2023-11-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2023)"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Fears are growing that China's troubled property sector may lead to continued problems in its financial system (US News & World Report, Xinhua, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 12 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics in the US (Trading Economics, set chart to \"1Y\" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Chinese 10-year bond on 19 October 2023 was 2.7410%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.520%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 2.520% and 2.660%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"More than 2.660% but less than 2.800%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"},"Between 2.800% and 2.940%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 2.940%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.520%","Between 2.520% and 2.660%, inclusive","More than 2.660% but less than 2.800%","Between 2.800% and 2.940%, inclusive","More than 2.940%"],"target":"Between 2.520% and 2.660%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 12 May 2023 and 12 November 2023, will violence related to anti-government protests and\/or civil unrest result in 250 or more fatalities in Tunisia?","Started_time":"2023-05-11","Closed_time":"2023-11-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The potential for turmoil in Tunisia has raised fears of a broader crisis in the region (US News & World Report, Soufan Center). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count. For the purposes of this question, \"civil unrest\" would mean acts of violence including riots, arson, and armed insurrection.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.33%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.67%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for the Chinese 10-year bond on 10 November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-19","Closed_time":"2023-11-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Despite China's abandonment of \"Zero COVID,\" concerns about the country's economic health persist (NASDAQ, Yahoo Finance, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 9 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set chart to \"1Y\" and hover cursor over the chart for data). The closing yield for the Chinese 10-year bond on 28 April 2023 was 2.7850%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.500%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.500% and 2.800%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 2.800% but less than 3.100%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.100% and 3.400%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.400%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.500%","Between 2.500% and 2.800%, inclusive","More than 2.800% but less than 3.100%","Between 3.100% and 3.400%, inclusive","More than 3.400%"],"target":"Between 2.500% and 2.800%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many of Ballotpedia's 14 \"noteworthy\" Republican candidates as of 5 October 2023 will have ceased to be presidential candidates as of 10 November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-10-06","Closed_time":"2023-11-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As of 6 October 2023, the 14 \"noteworthy\" Republican candidates were Ryan Binkley, Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Larry Elder, Nikki Haley, Will Hurd, Asa Hutchinson, Perry Johnson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Corey Stapleton, and Donald Trump (Ballotpedia, Politico). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign. Ceasing to be a candidate on 10 November 2023 would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"None or 1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2 or 3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or 5":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"6 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["None or 1","2 or 3","4 or 5","6 or more"],"target":"4 or 5"}
{"Question":"Before 11 November 2023, will Fitch, Moody's, and\/or S&P announce that Tunisia has defaulted on its international debt?","Started_time":"2023-05-11","Closed_time":"2023-11-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"International debt payments are coming due for Tunisia amid protracted negotiations with the IMF and general political and economic distress (Africa News, Al Arabiya, Al Jazeera). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the \"Big Three\" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale). Restricted and selective defaults would count, as would a technical default (Fitch, see \"RD,\" Credit Risk Monitor - S&P, see \"SD,\" Cbonds - Technical Default). For the purposes of this question, \"international debt\" means debt denominated in a currency other than Tunisian dinars (e.g., Cbonds - Tunisia Yen Bonds, Cbonds - Tunisia Euro Bonds).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.15%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.85%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 10 November 2023, will the US impose new export restrictions that would prohibit the export of Nvidia's current A800 microchips to Chinese entities or China without a license?","Started_time":"2023-07-07","Closed_time":"2023-11-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Foreign Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The Wall Street Journal reported in late June 2023 that the US was considering imposing new restrictions on the export of microchips used in, among other things, the development of artificial intelligence (Wall Street Journal, US News & World Report, The Verge). For the purposes of this question, \"Chinese entities\" are those on the \"Entity List\" maintained by the Commerce Department (Code of Federal Regulations - Entity List, see \"CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF,\" Bureau of Industry and Security). \"Current A800 microchips\" are those with the specifications laid out here as of the launch of this question: VideoCardz. Restrictions would be considered imposed upon the effective date of a rule published by the US government (e.g., Bureau of Industry and Security - Press Release 7 October 2022). An outright ban on the export of A800 microchips to all Chinese firms would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the US office vacancy rate in the third quarter of 2023 be 16.5% or higher, according to Colliers?","Started_time":"2023-09-08","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The US office vacancy rate in the US rose to 16.4% in the second quarter of 2023, higher than its peak of the global financial crisis (16.3%) as the office property market faces a major downturn (Colliers - US Office Market Outlook Q2 2023, The Week). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using US office vacancy data as first reported by Colliers, expected in the fourth quarter of 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the Virginia state House and\/or Senate in the 2023 legislative elections?","Started_time":"2023-06-02","Closed_time":"2023-11-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Elections for the Virginia General Assembly, which consists of the House of Delegates (House) and Senate, are scheduled to be held on 7 November 2023 (Ballotpedia - Virginia House Elections, Ballotpedia - Virginia Senate Elections). As of the launch of this question, Republicans controlled the House and Democrats the Senate (Virginia Mercury, AP). Non-Democratic candidates would not count, irrespective of any caucus affiliation.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only the House":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Yes, only the Senate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"Yes, both the House and Senate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"}},"choices":["Yes, only the House","Yes, only the Senate","Yes, both the House and Senate","No"],"target":"Yes, both the House and Senate"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the vote will the Democratic candidate win in the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election?","Started_time":"2023-10-11","Closed_time":"2023-11-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2023)"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is running for reelection in a state that went for Donald Trump in 2020 (US News & World Report, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"50.0% or less and will not win the election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"50.0% or less but will win the election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"More than 50.0% but less than 53.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"53.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["50.0% or less and will not win the election","50.0% or less but will win the election","More than 50.0% but less than 53.0%","53.0% or more"],"target":"More than 50.0% but less than 53.0%"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the vote will the Democratic candidate win in the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election?","Started_time":"2023-01-20","Closed_time":"2023-11-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is running for reelection in a state that went for Donald Trump in 2020 (WYMT, Morning Consult, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"50.0% or less and will not win the election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"50.0% or less but will win the election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"55.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["50.0% or less and will not win the election","50.0% or less but will win the election","More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%","55.0% or more"],"target":"More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%"}
{"Question":"Before 1 November 2023, will NATO and\/or a NATO member state accuse Republic of Serbia national military forces and\/or law enforcement of entering Kosovo without authorization?","Started_time":"2023-06-02","Closed_time":"2023-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Violence in Kosovo escalated in late May 2023 as Serb protesters clashed with NATO's KFOR peacekeeping forces while Serbia has put its forces on high alert amid domestic political protests of its own (AP, BBC, NATO - KFOR, EURACTIV). Serbia requested to deploy forces in December 2022, but KFOR declined (Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 4 November 2023, which candidate, excluding Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, will next have 10.0% or more of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support, according to RealClearPolitics?","Started_time":"2023-08-04","Closed_time":"2023-11-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As of early August 2023, former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were well-ahead of other Republican presidential challengers in the polls (Politico, NBC News, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 3 November 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to \"3M\"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data for 3 November 2024 are first reported, if necessary. In the event of a tie, the candidate who most recently had a lower level of support will be considered to have been the next to have 10.0% or more.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Nikki Haley":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Mike Pence":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Vivek Ramaswamy":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Tim Scott":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"}},"choices":["Nikki Haley","Mike Pence","Vivek Ramaswamy","Tim Scott","Someone else","No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023"],"target":"No other candidate will have 10.0% or more before 4 November 2023"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the NYSE FANG+ Index on 3 November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2023-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Shares of technology companies lost trillions of dollars in value in 2022 (MarketWatch). The NYSE FANG+ Index includes ten of the largest tech companies traded in the US (Intercontinental Exchange). The outcome will be determined using data from S&P as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3,200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,200 and 3,700, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,700 but less than 4,100":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4,100 and 4,500, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 4,500 but less than 4,900":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 4,900 and 5,400, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 5,400":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"}},"choices":["Less than 3,200","Between 3,200 and 3,700, inclusive","More than 3,700 but less than 4,100","Between 4,100 and 4,500, inclusive","More than 4,500 but less than 4,900","Between 4,900 and 5,400, inclusive","More than 5,400"],"target":"More than 5,400"}
{"Question":"Will the jury find Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of any federal crime in his trial that began on 3 October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-10-06","Closed_time":"2023-11-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology","Society"],"Description":"FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried's federal trial in the Southern District of New York began on 3 October 2023, in which he is facing seven criminal charges (NPR, Axios, CNN). A guilty or no contest plea without a verdict from the jury would not count. If the judge declares a mistrial or dismisses the charges, the question would close \"No.\" The granting of a motion for a judgment of acquittal after the jury reaches a verdict would be immaterial, and appeals and litigation subsequent to a trial are immaterial (Cornell). If the trial is still underway as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2023 MLB World Series?","Started_time":"2023-07-21","Closed_time":"2023-11-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2023 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season is scheduled to end on 1 October 2023, with the playoffs to follow (CBS Sports, Fansided).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Atlanta Braves":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Baltimore Orioles":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Houston Astros":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Dodgers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New York Yankees":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Philadelphia Phillies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"San Francisco Giants":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tampa Bay Rays":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Texas Rangers":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"Toronto Blue Jays":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"}},"choices":["Atlanta Braves","Baltimore Orioles","Houston Astros","Los Angeles Dodgers","New York Yankees","Philadelphia Phillies","San Francisco Giants","Tampa Bay Rays","Texas Rangers","Toronto Blue Jays","Another team"],"target":"Texas Rangers"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 1 November 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 20 September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-16","Closed_time":"2023-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its October\/November meeting is scheduled for 31 October - 1 November 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?","Started_time":"2023-06-30","Closed_time":"2023-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Fears remain that Russia may again invade the north of Ukraine via a renuclearized Belarus that is now providing sanctuary to the Wagner Group (AP, Al-Arabiya, Politico, Belta). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The Ukrainian oblasts that border Belarus are Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, and Zhytomyr, which you can identify by zooming in on the ISW map application. For the purposes of this question, \"Claimed Russian Control\" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but \"Assessed Russian Advance\" and \"Assessed Russian Control\" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.15%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.85%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Ukraine retake control of either the Zaporizhzhia or Kherson Oblast before 1 November 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?","Started_time":"2023-04-21","Closed_time":"2023-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"While Russia claimed to annex both the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts along with Donetsk and Luhansk, Ukraine still controls parts of each (AP). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.24%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.76%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the \"Big Three\" US automakers cease before 16 November 2023?","Started_time":"2023-10-11","Closed_time":"2023-10-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2023)"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society"],"Description":"In September 2023, the UAW (officially the \"International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America\") began targeted strikes against the \"Big Three\" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) after the expiration of their respective collective bargaining agreements (US News & World Report, Axios, Key Differences).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will all work stoppages (either strikes or lockouts) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and the \"Big Three\" US automakers cease?","Started_time":"2023-09-22","Closed_time":"2023-10-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society"],"Description":"In September 2023, the UAW (officially the \"International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America\") began targeted strikes against the \"Big Three\" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) after the expiration of their respective collective bargaining agreements (NBC News, CNBC, Key Differences).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 29 September 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 29 September 2023 and 12 October 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13 October 2023 and 9 November 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"Between 10 November 2023 and 21 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Not before 22 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Before 29 September 2023","Between 29 September 2023 and 12 October 2023","Between 13 October 2023 and 9 November 2023","Between 10 November 2023 and 21 December 2023","Not before 22 December 2023"],"target":"Between 13 October 2023 and 9 November 2023"}
{"Question":"To which political party will the prime minister elected after the next Pakistani general election belong?","Started_time":"2022-10-14","Closed_time":"2023-10-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The next general election for Pakistan's National Assembly is due to be held no later than October 2023, but could be held sooner (NPR, Al Jazeera, Radio Pakistan). The Prime Minister is elected by the National Assembly within 21 days following the day of the general election (Pakistan Constitution, see Article 91). The question will be suspended the day before the general election once the general election date is set. The appointment of a caretaker prime minister would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) [PML(N)]":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Pakistan Peoples Party [PPP]":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf [PTI]":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Another party or no party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"There will not be a general election held before 31 October 2023 or a prime minister will not be elected within 24 days of the general election":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"71%"}},"choices":["Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) [PML(N)]","Pakistan Peoples Party [PPP]","Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf [PTI]","Another party or no party","There will not be a general election held before 31 October 2023 or a prime minister will not be elected within 24 days of the general election"],"target":"There will not be a general election held before 31 October 2023 or a prime minister will not be elected within 24 days of the general election"}
{"Question":"Will the United States publicly acknowledge that it has executed a military strike within the territory of the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, or the West Bank before 30 October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-10-08","Closed_time":"2023-10-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Middle East in Focus"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"After Hamas' attack in southern Israel in early October 2023, the US has announced that it is sending naval forces to the Eastern Mediterranean (AP, Defense.gov). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on or over pertinent territory. A cyberattack alone would not count, and a strike in or over Gazan or Lebanese airspace or territorial waters would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?","Started_time":"2023-08-11","Closed_time":"2023-10-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2023 Rugby World Cup final is scheduled for 28 October 2023 in Saint-Denis, France (Rugby World Cup, Planet Rugby, Telegraph).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Australia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"England":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"France":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ireland":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New Zealand":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"South Africa":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Australia","England","France","Ireland","New Zealand","South Africa","Another team"],"target":"South Africa"}
{"Question":"When will BLS International resume Indian visa services for Canadians in Canada?","Started_time":"2023-10-06","Closed_time":"2023-10-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After Canada accused India of involvement in the June 2023 death of a Sikh separatist leader in Vancouver, BLS International, the agency that processes visa requests for India, announced, \"Important notice from Indian Mission: Due to operational reasons, with effect from 21 September 2023, Indian visa services have been suspended till further notice\" (BLS International, AP, CBC, CIC News). Resumption for special circumstances (e.g., deaths in a family, medical emergencies) alone would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 20 October 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 20 October 2023 and 9 November 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"Between 10 November 2023 and 7 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Between 8 December 2023 and 11 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Not before 12 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"}},"choices":["Before 20 October 2023","Between 20 October 2023 and 9 November 2023","Between 10 November 2023 and 7 December 2023","Between 8 December 2023 and 11 January 2024","Not before 12 January 2024"],"target":"Between 20 October 2023 and 9 November 2023"}
{"Question":"What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-24","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy in 2023 (CBS News, CNBC, AP). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in October 2023 (FRED, BEA - Release Schedule).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Higher by 3.0% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 3.0%","Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive","Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%","Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive","Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%","Higher by 3.0% or more"],"target":"Higher by 3.0% or more"}
{"Question":"Will Chinese property developer Country Garden default on any bond payments before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-09-15","Closed_time":"2023-10-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Country Garden Holdings Company Limited, generally referred to simply as Country Garden, is one of the few major property developers in China to have not defaulted on debt, but it has many bond payments due in the near term (US News & World Report, CNN, Yahoo Finance). The use of \"grace periods\" to delay payment and creditor-approved bond restructuring would not count (Investopedia - Grace Period). Default by its business segments or wholly-owned subsidiaries (e.g., Country\u00a0Garden\u00a0Real\u00a0Estate) would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?","Started_time":"2023-10-04","Closed_time":"2023-10-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"After the House of Representatives voted to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, the race is on to pick his replacement in the closely divided body (NBC News, BBC). While the Speaker of the House has always been a member of the House of Representatives, such is not required by the Constitution (Congressional Research Service). If no new Speaker has been elected as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Rep. Tom Emmer (MN)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Rep. Garret Graves (LA)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Rep. Jim Jordan (OH)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Rep. Patrick McHenry (NC)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Rep. Steve Scalise (LA)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Another current Republican Representative":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Rep. Tom Emmer (MN)","Rep. Garret Graves (LA)","Rep. Jim Jordan (OH)","Rep. Patrick McHenry (NC)","Rep. Steve Scalise (LA)","Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY)","Another current Republican Representative","Someone else"],"target":"Another current Republican Representative"}
{"Question":"Will the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected with votes from both Republicans and Democrats?","Started_time":"2023-10-16","Closed_time":"2023-10-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Republicans in the House of Representatives are looking at various paths forward to elect a new Speaker of the House (The Hill, CNN). Only one or more representatives from each party must vote for the winner of next Speaker to count. If no new Speaker has been elected as of the closing date of this question, the closing date will be extended.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"To which political party will the next prime minister of Slovakia belong after the 2023 parliamentary elections?","Started_time":"2023-06-30","Closed_time":"2023-09-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Slovaks prepare to go to the polls in an early election, there are concerns that pro-Russian leaders may win control of the country's parliament, the National Council (Politico, Slovak Spectator, Politico - Slovakia Poll of Polls, France 24). The next general election is scheduled for 30 September 2023 (AP). The question will be suspended on 29 September 2022 and the outcome determined once a new prime minister has been appointed by the president of Slovakia (Slovak Constitution, see Article 102(1)(g)). If no new prime minister has been appointed and a new election is called, the question would close \"None of the above.\" The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Direction - Slovak Social Democracy (Smer \u2013 soci\u00e1lna demokracia)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Progressive Slovakia (Progres\u00edvne Slovensko)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Voice - Social Democracy (HLAS - soci\u00e1lna demokracia)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Direction - Slovak Social Democracy (Smer \u2013 soci\u00e1lna demokracia)","Progressive Slovakia (Progres\u00edvne Slovensko)","Voice - Social Democracy (HLAS - soci\u00e1lna demokracia)","None of the above"],"target":"Direction - Slovak Social Democracy (Smer \u2013 soci\u00e1lna demokracia)"}
{"Question":"In the IEA's total hydrogen demand estimates for 2030, will the percentage difference between its Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) be less in the 2023 WEO report compared to the 2022 WEO report?","Started_time":"2023-05-16","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Environment","US Politics","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes and updates various data estimating, among other things, total hydrogen demand in the future in its World Energy Outlook (WEO) report (IEA WEO). The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) shows the trajectory implied by today's policy settings, and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes that all aspirational targets announced by governments are met on time and in full, including their long\u2010term net zero and energy access goals (WEO 2022, see page 20). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and outcome determined using 2023 WEO total hydrogen demand data for both STEPS and APS in 2030, expected sometime in October 2023 (WEO 2023). The figure for STEPS will be divided by the figure for APS. In the 2022 WEO, total hydrogen demand in 2030 for STEPS was 13,438 petajoules and for APS was 15,064 petajoules, meaning that STEPS was 89.20605% of APS, or lower by 10.79395% (WEO 2022, see Table A.26 on page 460). The data may also be downloaded in an XLSX file (WEO 2022 - Free Dataset, download \"Tables for scenario projections (Annex A)\" and navigate to the \"Hydrogen demand (PJ) sheet). If the percentage difference in the data for 2030 in the 2023 WEO is less than 10.79395%, then the question will close \"Yes.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26.54%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73.46%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2023-10-11","Closed_time":"2023-10-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2023)"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"Killers of the Flower Moon is an Apple-produced historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese being released in theaters before becoming available for streaming on Apple TV+ (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 21 October 2023 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 20-22 October 2023 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released on 20 October 2023 (Hollywood Reporter).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $16 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between $16 million and $24 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"More than $24 million but less than $32 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"Between $32 million and $40 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"More than $40 million but less than $48 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between $48 million and $56 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than $56 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Less than $16 million","Between $16 million and $24 million, inclusive","More than $24 million but less than $32 million","Between $32 million and $40 million, inclusive","More than $40 million but less than $48 million","Between $48 million and $56 million, inclusive","More than $56 million"],"target":"Between $16 million and $24 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening wide release weekend for Killers of the Flower Moon, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2023-07-07","Closed_time":"2023-10-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"Killers of the Flower Moon is an Apple-produced historical drama directed by Martin Scorsese being released in theaters before becoming available for streaming on Apple TV+ (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 20 October 2023 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 20-22 October 2023 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in some theaters on 6 October 2023, with the \"wide\" release scheduled for 20 October 2023 (CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $20 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between $20 million and $40 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"More than $40 million but less than $60 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Between $60 million and $80 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than $80 million but less than $100 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"$100 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than $20 million","Between $20 million and $40 million, inclusive","More than $40 million but less than $60 million","Between $60 million and $80 million, inclusive","More than $80 million but less than $100 million","$100 million or more"],"target":"Between $20 million and $40 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual real GDP percentage growth rate for the Emirate of Dubai in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the first quarter of 2022?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using \"Growth Rate %\" data as first reported by the Dubai Statistics Center (Dubai Statistics Center - National Accounts, see \"Constant Prices\" reports). The figure in the PDF file will be used for resolution. In the first quarter of 2022, the real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 as compared to the first quarter of 2021 was 5.88% (Gross Domestic Product at Constant Prices First Quarter - Emirate of Dubai 2022).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 3.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by between 0.00% and 3.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Higher by more than 0.00% but less than 3.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"},"Higher by between 3.00% and 6.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Higher by more than 6.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 3.00%","Lower by between 0.00% and 3.00%, inclusive","Higher by more than 0.00% but less than 3.00%","Higher by between 3.00% and 6.00%, inclusive","Higher by more than 6.00%"],"target":"Higher by more than 0.00% but less than 3.00%"}
{"Question":"Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 21 October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-21","Closed_time":"2023-10-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Open","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"While Belarus has not officially engaged in fighting in Ukraine, there are concerns that it could be drawn into the fighting (CNN, European Leadership Network, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, \"Ukraine\" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement\/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count. Members of the Belarusian armed forces being placed under Russian military command by the Belarusian government and the government of Belarus acknowledging that those Belarusian troops have engaged in fighting in Ukraine would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.06%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.94%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 21 October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-09-11","Closed_time":"2023-10-21","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2023)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"While Belarus has not officially engaged in fighting in Ukraine, there are concerns that it could be drawn into the fighting (US News & World Report, PBS, BBC). For the purposes of this question, \"Ukraine\" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement\/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count. Members of the Belarusian armed forces being placed under Russian military command by the Belarusian government and the government of Belarus acknowledging that those Belarusian troops have engaged in fighting in Ukraine would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Investment Scams in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?","Started_time":"2022-11-18","Closed_time":"2023-02-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society"],"Description":"Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (WSB-TV). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (FTC - Press Release). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Investment Scams totaled $147 million in 2021 (Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018, Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019, Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020,\u00a0Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021).Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE) is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. Click here to follow them on Twitter.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $147 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between $147 million and $304 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"More than $304 million but less than $460 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"$460 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"}},"choices":["Less than $147 million","Between $147 million and $304 million, inclusive","More than $304 million but less than $460 million","$460 million or more"],"target":"More than $304 million but less than $460 million"}
{"Question":"What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Business Imposters in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?","Started_time":"2022-11-18","Closed_time":"2023-02-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (WSB-TV). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (FTC - Press Release). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Business Imposters totaled $151 million in 2021 (Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018, Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019, Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020,\u00a0Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021)."],"Description":"Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE) is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. Click here to follow them on Twitter.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $151 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $151 million and $252 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"More than $252 million but less than $353 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"$353 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"}},"choices":["Less than $151 million","Between $151 million and $252 million, inclusive","More than $252 million but less than $353 million","$353 million or more"],"target":"More than $252 million but less than $353 million"}
{"Question":"What will be the aggregate reported losses by older adults in the US due to Romance Scams in 2022, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC)?","Started_time":"2022-11-18","Closed_time":"2023-02-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society"],"Description":"Fraud against older Americans has been increasing (WSB-TV). The question will be suspended on 10 February 2023 and the outcome determined using 2022 data as reported in the FTC's 2022-2023 Protecting Older Consumers report, expected in October 2023 (FTC - Press Release). In the 2021-2022 report released in October 2022, the FTC reported that aggregate reported losses by older adults due to Romance Scams totaled $213 million in 2021 (Protecting Older Consumers 2021-2022, see page 33 in the file). Older reports are also available online (Protecting Older Consumers 2017-2018, Protecting Older Consumers 2018-2019, Protecting Older Consumers 2019-2020,\u00a0Protecting Older Consumers 2020-2021).Seniors Against Fraud and Exploitation (SAFE) is a charitable and public service organization that seeks to eliminate the financial exploitation of older adults in all its forms, using statistical analysis, forecasting, and open source intelligence. Click here to follow them on Twitter.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $213 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between $213 million and $270 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64%"},"More than $270 million but less than $328 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"$328 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"}},"choices":["Less than $213 million","Between $213 million and $270 million, inclusive","More than $270 million but less than $328 million","$328 million or more"],"target":"Between $213 million and $270 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-19","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"While China ended its \"zero COVID\" policies around the beginning of the year, its economy is still dealing with challenges  (Forexlive, Yahoo Finance, CNN). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in October 2023 (Trading Economics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Higher by less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher by between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Higher by between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Higher by more than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Higher by less than 3.0%","Higher by between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%","Higher by between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 6.0%"],"target":"Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%"}
{"Question":"How many seats will the Law and Justice party (PiS) list win in the Sejm in Poland's next parliamentary election?","Started_time":"2023-06-09","Closed_time":"2023-10-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Poland's ruling PiS, sometimes referred to by its coalition name \"United Right,\" is seeking a third consecutive term as the majority in parliament, though observers see a very competitive race (Politico, Guardian, The First News, Politico - Poland Poll of Polls). The Sejm is the lower house of the Polish parliament, and the next parliamentary election is to be held by November 2023 (Sejm.gov.pl). All seats won as a result of votes for the PiS official candidate list will be counted towards resolution, including the members of any minor coalition parties included in the PiS list (e.g., The First News). The close date for this question will be changed once the official election date is set.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"PiS will win a majority of seats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"PiS will win a plurality of seats":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"PiS will win neither a majority nor a plurality":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"}},"choices":["PiS will win a majority of seats","PiS will win a plurality of seats","PiS will win neither a majority nor a plurality"],"target":"PiS will win a plurality of seats"}
{"Question":"Between 7 February 2023 and 30 September 2023, will an industrial customer in the US sign a binding sales agreement (aka offtake agreement) to purchase 50 million or more standard cubic feet per day (MSCFD) of blue hydrogen?","Started_time":"2023-02-07","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.29%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.71%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 15 October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-30","Closed_time":"2023-10-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"SpaceX is working to launch its next orbital flight test as soon as summer 2023 (CBS News, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.43%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.57%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will monthly global land and sea temperature anomalies reach or exceed 1.4\u00b0C before October 2023, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?","Started_time":"2023-02-03","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Environment"],"Description":"Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (NASA Earth Observatory). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA (NOAA - Global Anomalies and Index Data, click \"Download\" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). The highest anomaly, or the difference between a given time period as compared to the 20th century average, on record was 1.31\u00b0C in March 2016 as of the launch of this question.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11.38%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88.62%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will a winner of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences have a faculty appointment at Harvard University or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) when the prize is announced?","Started_time":"2023-09-11","Closed_time":"2023-10-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2023)"],"Tags_list":["Society"],"Description":"Both Harvard and MIT have a long history of producing Nobel Laureates among both faculty and graduates (iSchoolConnect). The announcement of the winner or winners of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is scheduled for 9 October 2023 (Nobel Prize Announcement Dates). A winner with a faculty emeritus title or affiliate faculty title at either institution when the prize is announced would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which driver will win the 2023 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?","Started_time":"2023-03-10","Closed_time":"2023-10-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Sports"],"Description":"Formula 1 auto racing is one of the most popular sports in the world (RTR Sports). The question will be suspended on 25 November 2023, the day before the final race in the season (Formula 1 - Driver Standings, Formula 1 - Abu Dhabi Grand Prix).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fernando Alonso":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lewis Hamilton":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Charles Leclerc":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Sergio Perez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"George Russell":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Max Verstappen":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Another driver":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fernando Alonso","Lewis Hamilton","Charles Leclerc","Sergio Perez","George Russell","Max Verstappen","Another driver"],"target":"Max Verstappen"}
{"Question":"What will be the lowest reported Arctic sea ice extent in 2023 as of 6 October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-16","Closed_time":"2023-10-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (NOAA, Fox Weather). The question will be suspended on 5 October 2023 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) \"Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph\" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 October 2023 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, About Charctic Data). Other site data would be immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 was 4.704 million sq. km on 19 September.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.4 million sq. km":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.4 million sq. km and 3.8 million sq. km, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.8 million sq. km but less than 4.2 million sq. km":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4.2 million sq. km and 4.6 million sq. km, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 4.6 million sq. km but less than 5.0 million sq. km":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5.0 million sq. km or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.4 million sq. km","Between 3.4 million sq. km and 3.8 million sq. km, inclusive","More than 3.8 million sq. km but less than 4.2 million sq. km","Between 4.2 million sq. km and 4.6 million sq. km, inclusive","More than 4.6 million sq. km but less than 5.0 million sq. km","5.0 million sq. km or more"],"target":"Between 4.2 million sq. km and 4.6 million sq. km, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will US total nonfarm payrolls next decrease in a given month?","Started_time":"2022-10-21","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The US labor market continued to add jobs in September 2022, but there are concerns that conditions may deteriorate as the Fed raises interest rates and recession fears rise (US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using BLS data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED, click \"EDIT GRAPH\" and change \"Units\" to \"Change, Thousands of Persons\"). Subsequent revisions would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Between October 2022 and December 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between January 2023 and March 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between April 2023 and June 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between July 2023 and September 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Not before October 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Between October 2022 and December 2022","Between January 2023 and March 2023","Between April 2023 and June 2023","Between July 2023 and September 2023","Not before October 2023"],"target":"Not before October 2023"}
{"Question":"Will Kevin McCarthy cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-01-13","Closed_time":"2023-10-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"Elected after a post-Civil War record of 15 ballots, Kevin McCarthy will lead the GOP with a razor-thin majority in the House (US News & World Report, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.54%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54.46%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many total vehicles will Tesla produce in the second and third quarters of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-05","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Tesla produced a record 440,808 vehicles in the first quarter of 2023, though a shrinking order backlog may curb the company's push to further ramp up (TechCrunch, Inside EVs, Auto Revolution). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's second quarter 2023 production figures, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck,\" and the \"Production & Delivery\" press release for the third quarter of 2023 (Tesla - Quarterly Results). Tesla's total production of vehicles in the second and third quarters of 2022 was 624,503 (2023 Q1 Tesla Quarterly Update, see page 6).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 800,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 800,000 and 860,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than 860,000 but fewer than 920,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"Between 920,000 and 980,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"More than 980,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 800,000","Between 800,000 and 860,000, inclusive","More than 860,000 but fewer than 920,000","Between 920,000 and 980,000, inclusive","More than 980,000"],"target":"More than 860,000 but fewer than 920,000"}
{"Question":"How many total vehicles will Tesla produce in the third quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-09-11","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2023)"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Tesla produced a record 479,700 vehicles in the second quarter of 2023, though a shrinking order backlog and factory upgrading may curb further ramping up in the near term (Tesla - Q2 2023 Press Release, Shacknews, Inside EVs). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2023 and the outcome determined using Tesla's \"Production & Delivery\" press release for the third quarter of 2023 (Tesla - Financial Information).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 400,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between 400,000 and 440,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"More than 440,000 but fewer than 480,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Between 480,000 and 520,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"More than 520,000 but fewer than 560,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"560,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 400,000","Between 400,000 and 440,000, inclusive","More than 440,000 but fewer than 480,000","Between 480,000 and 520,000, inclusive","More than 520,000 but fewer than 560,000","560,000 or more"],"target":"Between 400,000 and 440,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device in Ukrainian territory, territorial waters, or airspace?","Started_time":"2022-11-18","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (Economist, BBC, Guardian). A radiological device (aka \"dirty bomb\") would not count (Mass.gov). For the purposes of this question, \"Ukraine\" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.22%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.78%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 30 September 2023, according to CoinMarketCap?","Started_time":"2022-11-18","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology","Society"],"Description":"Troubles at the crypto exchange FTX are the latest hit to the cryptocurrency ecosystem (Economist, CNBC, CoinDesk, Decrypt). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 30 September 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" (CoinMarketCap, set \"Zoom\" to \"7d\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $200 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $200 billion and $600 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than $600 billion but less than $1.0 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"More than $1.4 trillion but less than $1.8 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $2.2 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than $200 billion","Between $200 billion and $600 billion, inclusive","More than $600 billion but less than $1.0 trillion","Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive","More than $1.4 trillion but less than $1.8 trillion","Between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion, inclusive","More than $2.2 trillion"],"target":"Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 October 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-11","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). The temporary transfer of power to an acting president alone would not be considered Putin ceasing to be president (e.g., Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.95%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.05%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Sweden become a member of NATO before 1 October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-05","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"While Sweden submitted its application to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in May 2022, approval from Hungary and Turkey remain obstacles to membership (US News & World Report, Voice of America, NATO Parliamentary Assembly). The latest country to join NATO was Finland on 4 April 2023 (NATO).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.13%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.87%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-30","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The PRC continues to hold military drills near Taiwan as the island nation extends the term of mandatory military service (Economist, Axios, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.65%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.35%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Giorgia Meloni cease to be the prime minister of Italy before 1 October 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-23","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Giorgia Meloni was sworn in as the first female prime minister of Italy in October 2022 amid high energy prices, the war in Ukraine, and various domestic issues (Economist, US News & World Report, Politico, Atlantic Council).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.20%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.80%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the city council building in Melitopol, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 1 October 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?","Started_time":"2023-04-12","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Russian forces are reportedly expecting a Ukrainian counterattack in the spring of 2023, with the key city of Melitopol a potential target (France 24, Telegraph, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol' (Mykhaila Hrushevskoho St, 5, Melitopol', Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 72300), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.05%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.95%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Moldova have a change in its constitutional order by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-08","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, the government of Moldova fears that Russia may attempt a coup in the country (US News & World Report, Politico, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, \"extraconstitutional events\" would be a change in the government by means not authorized by the Moldovan constitution (e.g., a coup) (Constitution of the Republic of Moldova). For example, the assassination of a leader alone would not count, but the installation of a successor not in accordance with the constitution would count. The fleeing of the constitutional government into exile would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.82%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.18%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2023, will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) execute a military strike within the territory of Iran?","Started_time":"2022-09-23","Closed_time":"2023-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Israel has stated that it would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon, which is widely seen to include a possible military strike by Israel against Iran (Politico, Al Jazeera, FOXNews). The geographic origin of and weaponry used in a military strike would be immaterial so long as the weapon detonates or discharges on Iranian territory. A cyberattack alone would not count. Actions not executed by the IDF would not count (e.g., covert assassinations of nuclear scientists). A strike in or over Iranian territorial waters would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.33%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.67%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 29 September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-05","Closed_time":"2023-09-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"BRICS nations, which includes China, and others are voicing pushback against the dominance of the US dollar in international trade in favor of local currencies (France24, First Post, Al-Monitor). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 6.25":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.25 and 6.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 6.50 but lower than 6.75":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.75 and 7.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 7.00 but lower than 7.25":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 7.25 and 7.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"},"Higher than 7.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Lower than 6.25","Between 6.25 and 6.50, inclusive","Higher than 6.50 but lower than 6.75","Between 6.75 and 7.00, inclusive","Higher than 7.00 but lower than 7.25","Between 7.25 and 7.50, inclusive","Higher than 7.50"],"target":"Between 7.25 and 7.50, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 7 April 2023 and 29 September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-07","Closed_time":"2023-09-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","US Policy"],"Description":"The failures of both Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have observers speculating whether there will be more to come in 2023 (Deseret, The Street). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, \"the largest commercial banks in the US\" are those listed in the Federal Reserve's list of \"Large Commercial Banks\" as of 31 December 2022 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks, see \"December 31, 2022\"). As of 6 April 2023, two of the largest banks have failed in the US in 2023 thus far, SVB and Signature Bank (FDIC). A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcome. The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"2 or 3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2 or 3","4 or more"],"target":"1"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of China's NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-09","Closed_time":"2023-09-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has dimmed hopes of a robust economic recovery in China post \"zero COVID\" (US News & World Report). A PMI is a measure of trends in different economic sectors, where any value above 50 represents expansion according to a survey of purchasing managers (Investopedia - PMI). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Trading Economics, expected on or about 29 September 2023 (Trading Economics).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 46.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 46.0 and 48.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Higher than 48.0 but lower than 50.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"Higher than 52.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Lower than 46.0","Between 46.0 and 48.0, inclusive","Higher than 48.0 but lower than 50.0","Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive","Higher than 52.0"],"target":"Between 50.0 and 52.0, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 29 September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-07","Closed_time":"2023-09-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The US Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, has fallen from two-decade highs reached in 2022 (CNBC, MarketWatch, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\"). On 5 April 2023, the closing value was 102.01.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 96.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 96.00 and 98.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 98.00 but less than 100.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 100.00 and 102.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 102.00 but less than 104.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 104.00 and 106.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"More than 106.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"}},"choices":["Less than 96.00","Between 96.00 and 98.00, inclusive","More than 98.00 but less than 100.00","Between 100.00 and 102.00, inclusive","More than 102.00 but less than 104.00","Between 104.00 and 106.00, inclusive","More than 106.00"],"target":"More than 106.00"}
{"Question":"Between 9 June 2023 and 29 September 2023, will shares of Alphabet (Google) outperform shares of Microsoft?","Started_time":"2023-06-09","Closed_time":"2023-09-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"As the race to develop artificial intelligence heats up, both Alphabet and Microsoft are vying for position (Observer, NY Post). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance - Alphabet, Class A shares, Google Finance - Microsoft). The closing values of each stock for 29 September 2023 will be divided by their respective closing values for 9 June 2023 to determine the performance, or percentage change. The difference in percentage points of each calculation will determine the resolution. In the event of an exact tie, the stock with the greater percentage increase at any point between the close on 9 June 2023 to the close on 29 September 2023 would be deemed the outperformer. In the event that a company splits its shares, the price of shares will be adjusted accordingly (Investopedia - Stock Split).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89.15%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.85%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many total vehicles will be sold in the US between June and August 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-07","Closed_time":"2023-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"While inventories improved in the first quarter of 2023, rising interest rates are putting pressure on US auto sales (US News & World Report, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined by adding monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) for June, July, and August 2023 once August 2023 data are first available (FRED, hover cursor over chart for data).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 3.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.0 million and 3.4 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.4 million but fewer than 3.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 3.8 million and 4.2 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"More than 4.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 3.0 million","Between 3.0 million and 3.4 million, inclusive","More than 3.4 million but fewer than 3.8 million","Between 3.8 million and 4.2 million, inclusive","More than 4.2 million"],"target":"Between 3.8 million and 4.2 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many of Ballotpedia's 13 \"noteworthy\" Republican candidates as of 20 July 2023 will have ceased to be presidential candidates as of 28 September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-07-21","Closed_time":"2023-09-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As of 20 July 2023, the 13 \"noteworthy\" Republican candidates were Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Larry Elder, Nikki Haley, Will Hurd, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Corey Stapleton, Francis Suarez, and Donald Trump (Ballotpedia, Politico). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Republican Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"None or 1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"2 or 3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"4 or 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["None or 1","2 or 3","4 or 5","6 or more"],"target":"None or 1"}
{"Question":"Will real GDP in the UK contract in the first and\/or second quarter (Q1 and Q2) of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-10","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The UK entered 2023 in a challenging economic environment (Economist, CNBC, HM Treasury). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using \"Quarter on Quarter\" data for the first and second quarters of 2023 as provided by the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) once its \"GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2023\" release is published, scheduled for 29 September 2023 (Gross Domestic Product: Quarter on Quarter growth: CVM SA %, select \"Table\" under \"Show data as\" for data, GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: April to June 2023).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Real GDP will contract in Q1 but not in Q2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Real GDP will contract in Q2 but not in Q1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"Real GDP will contract in both Q1 and Q2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Real GDP will not contract in either Q1 or Q2":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"}},"choices":["Real GDP will contract in Q1 but not in Q2","Real GDP will contract in Q2 but not in Q1","Real GDP will contract in both Q1 and Q2","Real GDP will not contract in either Q1 or Q2"],"target":"Real GDP will not contract in either Q1 or Q2"}
{"Question":"Will the percentage of departure flights at Hartsfield\u2013Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) either delayed or cancelled in June 2023 be greater than it was in June 2022?","Started_time":"2023-03-03","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society"],"Description":"The US airline industry is facing various challenges, including pilot union negotiations and pilot shortages that could compound chronic flight delay problems at airports like ATL (CNBC, KPMG, Petoskey News). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) (Bureau of Transportation Statistics). On the BTS page, select \"Atlanta, GA: Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International\" under \"Filter Airport,\" select \"All Carriers\" under \"Filter Carriers,\" select appropriate year under \"Filter Year,\" and select \"Departures\" under \"Filter Operation.\" For June 2022, BTS reported 6,688 Departure Delays and 743 Flights Cancelled among 26,928 Flight Operations, meaning that 27.60% of all flights were either delayed or cancelled ((6,688+743)\/26,928=27.60%).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83.35%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16.65%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will US real GDP contract in the first quarter (Q1) and\/or second quarter (Q2) of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-30","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"Inflation, higher interest rates, and various geopolitical factors have raised concerns about economic growth in the US in 2023 (USA Today, Yahoo Finance, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data for Q1 and Q2 of 2023 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database upon the release of the BEA\u2019s third estimate for Q2 2023 (FRED, BEA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, in both Q1 and Q2 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, only in Q1 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only in Q2 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"}},"choices":["Yes, in both Q1 and Q2 2023","Yes, only in Q1 2023","Yes, only in Q2 2023","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the Writers Guild of America (WGA) vote to end its strike?","Started_time":"2023-07-28","Closed_time":"2023-09-27","Challenges_list":["Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2024","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The WGA's contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, a trade group that represents studios and streamers, expired on 1 May 2023 and triggered a strike by writers (WGA, ABC7, Deadline). The last WGA strike ended in 2008 after union members voted to return to work after striking for 100 days (NBC News). The question would close upon the vote to end the strike irrespective of when the strike would actually end.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"Between 1 October 2023 and 30 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"Between 1 December 2023 and 31 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 1 February 2024 and 31 March 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 April 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2023","Between 1 October 2023 and 30 November 2023","Between 1 December 2023 and 31 January 2024","Between 1 February 2024 and 31 March 2024","Not before 1 April 2024"],"target":"Before 1 October 2023"}
{"Question":"How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the second Republican primary debate in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-09-01","Closed_time":"2023-09-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Republican National Committee has reportedly raised the minimum standards for participation in the second presidential primary debate (Politico). The second Republican presidential primary debate is scheduled for 27 September 2023 in Simi Valley, CA (USA Today). If the debate is rescheduled for another date in 2023, then the close date will be rescheduled accordingly. If there is no Republican primary debate in 2023, the question will be voided.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"3 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"6 or 7":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"8 or 9":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"10 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["3 or fewer","4 or 5","6 or 7","8 or 9","10 or more"],"target":"6 or 7"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2023 Formula One World Constructors' Championship?","Started_time":"2023-03-10","Closed_time":"2023-09-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Sports"],"Description":"Formula 1 auto racing is one of the most popular sports in the world (RTR Sports). The question will be suspended on 25 November 2023, the day before the final race in the season (Formula 1 - Constructor Standings, Formula 1 - Abu Dhabi Grand Prix).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Aston Martin Aramco Mercedes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ferrari":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Mercedes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Aston Martin Aramco Mercedes","Ferrari","Mercedes","Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT","Another team"],"target":"Red Bull Racing Honda RBPT"}
{"Question":"Will North Korea successfully put a satellite into orbit before 23 September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-23","Closed_time":"2023-09-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In May 2023, North Korea failed in an attempt to launch a spy satellite, but plans to try again (NPR, AP). North Korea has previously put at least two satellites into orbit (38 North). The purpose and operability of a satellite put into orbit is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.31%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.69%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 21 September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-09","Closed_time":"2023-09-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The UK central bank, the Bank of England, has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation (Bank of England, US News & World Report). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate, which has risen from 3.50% to start 2023 to 4.50% as of 7 June 2023 (Bank of England - Bank Rate, Bank of England - May 2023 MPC Minutes). The MPC is scheduled to announce rate decisions on 22 June 2023, 3 August 2023, and 21 September 2023 (Bank of England - MPC Schedule).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 4.50%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4.50% or higher, but lower than 4.75%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4.75% or higher, but lower than 5.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5.00% or higher, but lower than 5.25%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"5.50% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"}},"choices":["Lower than 4.50%","4.50% or higher, but lower than 4.75%","4.75% or higher, but lower than 5.00%","5.00% or higher, but lower than 5.25%","5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50%","5.50% or higher"],"target":"5.25% or higher, but lower than 5.50%"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 20 September 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 July 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-05","Closed_time":"2023-09-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its September meeting is scheduled for 19-20 September 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, how many of the \"Big Three\" US automakers will have a work stoppage (either a strike or a lockout) involving the United Auto Workers (UAW) union?","Started_time":"2023-08-11","Closed_time":"2023-09-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society"],"Description":"In July 2023, the UAW (officially the \"International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America\") and the \"Big Three\" US automakers (Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, which includes Chrysler) kicked off negotiations on new collective bargaining agreements (CNBC). The current contracts are set to expire on 14 September 2023, and both sides are preparing for a potentially contentious fight (CNN). A work stoppage need not include all of an automaker's employees represented by the UAW to count, but a strike must have been approved by the UAW International Executive Board and\/or International President per Article 50 of the UAW constitution (UAW, GM Authority, Key Differences). The question would close early upon the ratification of new collective bargaining agreements with all three automakers.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"3":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"71%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3"],"target":"3"}
{"Question":"Will the US House of Representatives officially open an impeachment inquiry into President Biden before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2023-09-08","Closed_time":"2023-09-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"House Republicans are reportedly considering opening an impeachment inquiry into President Biden and corruption claims related to family business dealings (The Hill, Politico, CNN). For the purposes of this question, \"officially open\" means either 1) a vote by the full House to begin an impeachment inquiry, or 2) a public announcement by the Speaker of the House of Representatives that an impeachment inquiry has begun or is beginning (Constitution Center, Congressional Research Service).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many total federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US in July 2023 and August 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-09","Closed_time":"2023-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Firearm sales in the US have fallen from record highs during the peak of the pandemic as some states revise gun control laws (US News & World Report, CNBC, ABC News, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined using data for July 2023 and August 2023 as reported by the FBI once August 2023 data are first available, expected in September 2023 (FBI.gov). In July 2022 and August 2022, the FBI reported a total of 4,922,464 firearm background checks.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 4,500,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Between 4,500,000 and 4,900,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than 4,900,000 but fewer than 5,300,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 5,300,000 and 5,700,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5,700,000 but fewer than 6,100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6,100,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 4,500,000","Between 4,500,000 and 4,900,000, inclusive","More than 4,900,000 but fewer than 5,300,000","Between 5,300,000 and 5,700,000, inclusive","More than 5,700,000 but fewer than 6,100,000","6,100,000 or more"],"target":"Fewer than 4,500,000"}
{"Question":"Will the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) vote to approve a new collective bargaining agreement with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA) before 1 October 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-09","Closed_time":"2023-08-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","US Politics"],"Description":"Dock workers represented by the ILWU have been working without a contract since July 2022, and work stoppages at some West Coast ports have some looking to the White House to intervene (US News & World Report, CNBC, Port Technology). The question would close upon the vote by the union members approving the new collective bargaining agreement.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.40%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34.60%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan before 1 September 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-30","Closed_time":"2023-09-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Conflict, drought, and international isolation have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine (Economist, World Food Program, AP, IPC). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.49%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86.51%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-27","Closed_time":"2023-09-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will continue its monetary policy tightening despite risks to the US labor market (Economist, AP, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics when first released, expected in September 2023 (BLS).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 3.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"},"4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6.5% or higher, but lower than 7.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"7.5% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 3.5%","3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.5%","4.5% or higher, but lower than 5.5%","5.5% or higher, but lower than 6.5%","6.5% or higher, but lower than 7.5%","7.5% or higher"],"target":"3.5% or higher, but lower than 4.5%"}
{"Question":"Will a crewed Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-26","Closed_time":"2023-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"After a series of delays, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft has been scheduled for its first launch with a crew aboard for July 2023 (Space.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.28%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.72%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What percentage of 2024 Democratic presidential nomination support will Joe Biden have as of 31 August 2023, according to RealClearPolitics?","Started_time":"2023-06-02","Closed_time":"2023-08-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 30 August 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics). The \"RCP Average\" as displayed will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 August 2023. The range of days under \"Date\" will be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 55.0% but less than 60.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 60.0% and 65.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"More than 65.0% but less than 70.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"70.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 50.0%","Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive","More than 55.0% but less than 60.0%","Between 60.0% and 65.0%, inclusive","More than 65.0% but less than 70.0%","70.0% or more"],"target":"More than 65.0% but less than 70.0%"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 25 August 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2023-05-12","Closed_time":"2023-08-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 24 August 2023 and the outcome determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 9 May 2023, Biden's approval rating was 42.5%. The data for 25 August 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 29 August 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 36.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 36.0% and 39.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Higher than 39.0% but lower than 42.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"Between 42.0% and 45.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher than 45.0% but lower than 48.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"48.0% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 36.0%","Between 36.0% and 39.0%, inclusive","Higher than 39.0% but lower than 42.0%","Between 42.0% and 45.0%, inclusive","Higher than 45.0% but lower than 48.0%","48.0% or higher"],"target":"Higher than 39.0% but lower than 42.0%"}
{"Question":"When will Yevgeny Prigozhin either cease to be the leader of the Wagner Group or flee Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus?","Started_time":"2023-06-09","Closed_time":"2023-08-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Prigozhin is the leader of the Private Military Company Wagner Group, generally known as the Wagner Group, a Russian organization that provides mercenary services to the Russian government and is currently involved in the war in Ukraine (Guardian, Atlantic). Prigozhin has been very public with complaints about Russia's prosecution of the war in Ukraine and at times critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin (US News & World Report, CBS News, Moscow Times). If the Wagner Group is dissolved and\/or absorbed into the Russian armed forces, it will be deemed to have ceased to exist and would therefore have no leader. Whether or not Prigozhin has either ceased to be the leader of the Wagner Group or fled Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus will be determined using credible open source media reporting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 9 July 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 9 July 2023 and 8 September 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 9 September 2023 and 8 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Not before 9 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"}},"choices":["Before 9 July 2023","Between 9 July 2023 and 8 September 2023","Between 9 September 2023 and 8 December 2023","Not before 9 December 2023"],"target":"Between 9 July 2023 and 8 September 2023"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new tweet on former President Donald Trump's Twitter account, @realdonaldtrump, before 1 December 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-31","Closed_time":"2023-08-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","US Politics"],"Description":"Elon Musk announced that Trump's Twitter account was reactivated after a poll held on the site, but Trump not tweeted since 2021 (CNBC, Twitter). Retweets would not count, and a tweet that is immediately deleted or removed would count so long as there is credible reporting that the tweet occurred. Claims that a tweet was the result of a hack would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18.46%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81.54%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Vladimir Putin attend the 2023 BRICS Summit in South Africa?","Started_time":"2023-03-24","Closed_time":"2023-08-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"South Africa is scheduled to host the 15th BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Summit in August 2023 (South African Government, Voice of America). Russian President Vladimir Putin's expected attendance has been complicated by the issuance of a warrant for his arrest by the International Criminal Court, which obliges South Africa to arrest Putin should he enter the country (Vice, US News & World Report, Parliamentarians for Global Action). Putin would have to be physically present at the summit to count. The question would close early upon the completion of the summit in South Africa. The question would close \"No\" upon either the official canceling of the summit for the 2023 calendar year or official relocation of the summit outside of South Africa.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.79%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.21%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many Republican presidential candidates will participate in person for the first Republican primary debate in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-16","Closed_time":"2023-08-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Republican National Committee has announced the first Republican presidential primary debate with new, minimum standards for participation (CBS News, Politico). The first Republican presidential primary debate is scheduled for 23 August 2023 in Milwaukee, WI, with another planned for 24 August 2023 should enough candidates qualify (GOP.com). For the purposes of this question, a split between two or more days would be considered a single debate. If the debate is rescheduled for another date in 2023, then the close date will be rescheduled accordingly. If there is no Republican primary debate in 2023, the question will be voided.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"4 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5 or 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"7 or 8":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"9 or 10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"11 or 12":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"13 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["4 or fewer","5 or 6","7 or 8","9 or 10","11 or 12","13 or more"],"target":"7 or 8"}
{"Question":"When will Teamsters union workers vote to approve a new collective bargaining agreement with United Parcel Service (UPS)?","Started_time":"2023-07-07","Closed_time":"2023-08-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society"],"Description":"The current contract for unionized workers at UPS expires on 31 July 2023, with workers having already approved a strike if a new deal isn't reached (The Hill, CNN, CBS News). The question would close upon the vote by the union members approving the new collective bargaining agreement.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 August 2023 and 15 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 August 2023 and 31 August 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between 1 September 2023 and 15 September 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Not before 16 September 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Before 1 August 2023","Between 1 August 2023 and 15 August 2023","Between 16 August 2023 and 31 August 2023","Between 1 September 2023 and 15 September 2023","Not before 16 September 2023"],"target":"Between 16 August 2023 and 31 August 2023"}
{"Question":"Which candidate will win the 2023 Guatemalan presidential election?","Started_time":"2023-06-23","Closed_time":"2023-08-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Guatemala has seen a volatile presidential election campaign in 2023, with one candidate who was leading in the polls disqualified in May 2023 (ABC News, AP). Guatemala's next presidential election is scheduled for 25 June 2023, with an expected runoff scheduled for 20 August 2023 if needed (Guatemala Supreme Electoral Tribunal, Americas Society\/Council of the Americas). \"Another outcome\" would include the Supreme Electoral Tribunal declaring the election null and void (Guatemala Electoral Law and Political Parties [in Spanish]).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Edmond Mulet":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Zury R\u00edos Sosa":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Sandra Torres":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"Another outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Edmond Mulet","Zury R\u00edos Sosa","Sandra Torres","Someone else","Another outcome"],"target":"Someone else"}
{"Question":"Which country will win the 2023 Women's FIFA World Cup?","Started_time":"2023-02-10","Closed_time":"2023-08-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2023 Women's FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Australia and New Zealand from 20 July 2023 to 20 August 2023 (FIFA Women\u2019s World Cup 2023). Thirty-two teams will qualify to compete (FIFA - Match Schedule).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Australia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"England":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"France":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Germany":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Netherlands":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Spain":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"Sweden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"United States":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Australia","England","France","Germany","Netherlands","Spain","Sweden","United States","Another team"],"target":"Spain"}
{"Question":"When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?","Started_time":"2022-12-02","Closed_time":"2023-08-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"While there have been talks between Ukraine and Russia since the latter's invasion of the country, the war continues (US News & World Report, Voice of America). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of the internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 26 February 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 26 February 2023 and 23 May 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 24 May 2023 and 18 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 19 August 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 26 February 2023","Between 26 February 2023 and 23 May 2023","Between 24 May 2023 and 18 August 2023","Not before 19 August 2023"],"target":"Not before 19 August 2023"}
{"Question":"Will Miami rank among the top 7 US metro areas by total venture capital (VC) invested in the first half of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-09","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"The city of Miami, Florida, is in a race with other mid-sized US cities to attract VC investment (Nonrival, see first chart). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor data as reported by Nonrival (PitchBook, Nonrival - Substack).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24.20%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.80%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sign or announce an agreement to end their current conflict in Sudan?","Started_time":"2023-05-05","Closed_time":"2023-08-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Fighting began between the SAF and RSF on 15 April 2023 and has raised fears of both a civil war and humanitarian catastrophes (CNN, Politico, Al Jazeera). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both the SAF and RSF to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Sudan. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 15 May 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15 May 2023 and 31 May 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 June 2023 and 30 June 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2023 and 14 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 15 August 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 15 May 2023","Between 15 May 2023 and 31 May 2023","Between 1 June 2023 and 30 June 2023","Between 1 July 2023 and 14 August 2023","Not before 15 August 2023"],"target":"Not before 15 August 2023"}
{"Question":"When will the Writers Guild of America (WGA) vote to end its strike?","Started_time":"2023-05-05","Closed_time":"2023-08-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The WGA's contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, a trade group that represents studios and streamers, expired on 1 May 2023 and triggered a strike by writers (WGA, ABC7, Deadline). The last WGA strike ended in 2008 after union members voted to return to work after striking for 100 days (NBC News). The question would close upon the vote to end the strike irrespective of when the strike would actually end.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 15 May 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15 May 2023 and 31 May 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 June 2023 and 30 June 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2023 and 14 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 15 August 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 15 May 2023","Between 15 May 2023 and 31 May 2023","Between 1 June 2023 and 30 June 2023","Between 1 July 2023 and 14 August 2023","Not before 15 August 2023"],"target":"Not before 15 August 2023"}
{"Question":"What percentage of all light vehicle sales in the US will be either plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) or all-electric vehicles (EVs) in 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-05","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"The push to transition the US to electric vehicles continues (Power Technology, McKinsey). The outcome will be determined using 2022 data as first reported in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Transportation Energy Data Book (TEDB), expected in early 2023 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory). For 2020, the updated TEDB reported 66.2 thousand PHEVs and 240.1 thousand EVs sold, which was 2.1702% of all light vehicle sales of 14,114 thousand that year (TEDB - Edition 39 (2021), see Table 6.2 on page 182, or 6-4, of the pdf file).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than 5.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.0%","Between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive","More than 3.0% but less than 4.0%","Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive","More than 5.0%"],"target":"More than 5.0%"}
{"Question":"Between 10 February 2023 and 10 August 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?","Started_time":"2023-02-10","Closed_time":"2023-08-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan flared up most recently in September 2022, and tensions remain high despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (France 24, US News & World Report, Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.77%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.23%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden's approval rating be as of 8 August 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2023-07-18","Closed_time":"2023-08-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 7 August 2023 and the outcome determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 10 July 2023, Biden's approval rating was 40.5%. The data for 8 August 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 10 August 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 38.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"At least 38.0%, but less than 39.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"At least 39.0%, but less than 40.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"At least 40.0%, but less than 41.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"At least 41.0%, but less than 42.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"At least 42.0%, but less than 43.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"43.0% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 38.0%","At least 38.0%, but less than 39.0%","At least 39.0%, but less than 40.0%","At least 40.0%, but less than 41.0%","At least 41.0%, but less than 42.0%","At least 42.0%, but less than 43.0%","43.0% or higher"],"target":"At least 40.0%, but less than 41.0%"}
{"Question":"Will at least one US show in Taylor Swift's 2023 \"The Eras Tour\" be canceled?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2023-08-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"Pop star Taylor Swift is scheduled to begin her \"The Eras Tour\" on 17 March 2023 in Glendale, Arizona, and end on 9 August 2023 in Los Angeles, California (Taylor Swift - Events). For the purposes of this question, a postponement of any show scheduled as of the launch of this question to a date after 21 August 2023 would be considered a cancellation (Deadline). A venue change alone would count as a cancellation if the new venue cannot host all ticket holders for that show.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.20%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.80%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the price of bitcoin on 8 August 2023?","Started_time":"2023-07-18","Closed_time":"2023-08-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 7 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the last price dated 8 August 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, set chart to \"1M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $25,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $25,500 and $27,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $27,000 but less than $28,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Between $28,500 and $30,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"More than $30,000 but less than $31,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between $31,500 and $33,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $33,000 but less than $34,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $34,500 and $36,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $36,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $25,500","Between $25,500 and $27,000, inclusive","More than $27,000 but less than $28,500","Between $28,500 and $30,000, inclusive","More than $30,000 but less than $31,500","Between $31,500 and $33,000, inclusive","More than $33,000 but less than $34,500","Between $34,500 and $36,000, inclusive","More than $36,000"],"target":"Between $28,500 and $30,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of shares of NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) on 8 August 2023?","Started_time":"2023-07-18","Closed_time":"2023-08-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Chipmaker NVIDIA has gained a lot of attention as the race for artificial intelligence heats up (Yahoo Finance, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 7 August 2023 and the outcome determined using closing price data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $390.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $390.00 and $415.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $415.00 but less than $440.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Between $440.00 and $465.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"More than $465.00 but less than $490.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between $490.00 and $515.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $515.00 but less than $540.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$540.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $390.00","Between $390.00 and $415.00, inclusive","More than $415.00 but less than $440.00","Between $440.00 and $465.00, inclusive","More than $465.00 but less than $490.00","Between $490.00 and $515.00, inclusive","More than $515.00 but less than $540.00","$540.00 or more"],"target":"Between $440.00 and $465.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 8 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?","Started_time":"2023-07-18","Closed_time":"2023-08-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Fighting over the ruins of the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region continues (MSN, Moscow Times, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address of the building (Tsentr Nadannya Administratyvnykh Posluh Mista Bakhmut) is Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The location identified by the interactive map will be used for resolution, and whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial. \"Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\" would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first week (1st - 7th) of August 2023?","Started_time":"2023-07-18","Closed_time":"2023-08-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"While total air passenger traffic has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry is struggling to keep up with demand (CNBC, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (TSA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 16.6 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 16.6 million and 17.4 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 17.4 million but fewer than 18.2 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"Between 18.2 million and 19.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"More than 19.0 million but fewer than 19.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"19.8 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 16.6 million","Between 16.6 million and 17.4 million, inclusive","More than 17.4 million but fewer than 18.2 million","Between 18.2 million and 19.0 million, inclusive","More than 19.0 million but fewer than 19.8 million","19.8 million or more"],"target":"More than 17.4 million but fewer than 18.2 million"}
{"Question":"What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 7 August 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?","Started_time":"2023-07-18","Closed_time":"2023-08-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 6 August 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 7 August 2023 (AAA, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $3.18":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $3.18 and $3.30, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $3.30 but less than $3.42":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $3.42 and $3.54, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $3.54 but less than $3.66":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $3.66 and $3.78, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than $3.78 but less than $3.90":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"$3.90 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Less than $3.18","Between $3.18 and $3.30, inclusive","More than $3.30 but less than $3.42","Between $3.42 and $3.54, inclusive","More than $3.54 but less than $3.66","Between $3.66 and $3.78, inclusive","More than $3.78 but less than $3.90","$3.90 or more"],"target":"More than $3.78 but less than $3.90"}
{"Question":"Which Major League Baseball team will be in first place in the National League's West Division (NL West) as of 6 August 2023?","Started_time":"2023-07-18","Closed_time":"2023-08-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The NL West was the most competitive division going into the All-star Break, with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers tied for first and the Giants 2.5 games behind (Arizona Sports). The question will be suspended on 5 August 2023 and the outcome determined using division standings data as reported by ESPN upon the conclusion of all games on 6 August 2023 (ESPN). A game that commences on 6 August 2022 will count toward the outcome regardless of when that game ends unless play is postponed to a future date.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Arizona Diamondbacks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Colorado Rockies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Dodgers":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"San Diego Padres":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"San Francisco Giants":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Arizona Diamondbacks","Colorado Rockies","Los Angeles Dodgers","San Diego Padres","San Francisco Giants"],"target":"Los Angeles Dodgers"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Turkish lira exchange rate on 4 August 2023?","Started_time":"2023-07-18","Closed_time":"2023-08-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The Turkish lira reached record lows against the US dollar since President Erdogan won reelection in late May 2023 (US News & World Report, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the US by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 22.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 22.00 and 24.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 24.00 but lower than 26.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 26.00 and 28.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"Higher than 28.00 but lower than 30.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 30.00 and 32.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher than 32.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 22.00","Between 22.00 and 24.00, inclusive","Higher than 24.00 but lower than 26.00","Between 26.00 and 28.00, inclusive","Higher than 28.00 but lower than 30.00","Between 30.00 and 32.00, inclusive","Higher than 32.00"],"target":"Between 26.00 and 28.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which candidate, excluding Donald Trump, will have the highest level of 2024 Republican presidential nomination support as of 31 July 2023, according to RealClearPolitics?","Started_time":"2023-05-26","Closed_time":"2023-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","2024 US Election (Preseason) Challenge","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The field of Republican candidates grew at the end of May 2023 with Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Tim Scott entering the race (Politico, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by RealClearPolitics' RCP Poll Average for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination (RealClearPolitics, set to \"3M\"). Chart data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 August 2023. In the event of a tie, the candidate that most recently prior to 31 July 2023 had the lower level of support will be considered to have the highest level.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ron DeSantis":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"Nikki Haley":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Mike Pence":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Tim Scott":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Ron DeSantis","Nikki Haley","Mike Pence","Tim Scott","Someone else"],"target":"Ron DeSantis"}
{"Question":"Will the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for July 2023 be greater than 3.6%?","Started_time":"2023-07-18","Closed_time":"2023-08-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"While new jobs came in lighter than expected among economists in June 2023, the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6% (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 3 August 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected in August 2023 (BLS).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the change in total beverage volume sold by AB InBev, the owner of Budweiser products including Bud Light, in North America in the second quarter (Q2) of 2023 as compared to Q2 of 2022?","Started_time":"2023-05-05","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Sales of Bud Light, the most popular beer in the US, have been hit by pushback in the wake of AB InBev's promotional relationship with social media personality Dylan Mulvaney (USA Today, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, AP). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data for Q2 2022 and Q2 2023 as reported by AB InBev in its Q2 2023 report, expected in late July or early August 2023 (AB InBev - Investors). In the second quarter of 2022, AB InBev sold 27,361 thousand hectoliters (AB InBev - Second Quarter 2022 Results, see \"North America\" in Annex 1, Cambridge Dictionary - Hectoliter).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down by 6.0% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64%"},"Down by more than 3.0% but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Down by between 0.0% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Up by more than 0.0% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Up by between 3.0% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Up by more than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Down by 6.0% or more","Down by more than 3.0% but less than 6.0%","Down by between 0.0% and 3.0%, inclusive","Up by more than 0.0% but less than 3.0%","Up by between 3.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","Up by more than 6.0%"],"target":"Down by 6.0% or more"}
{"Question":"When will Fitch, Moody's, and\/or S&P either announce that the US has defaulted on its debt and\/or downgrade the long-term credit rating of the US?","Started_time":"2023-04-12","Closed_time":"2023-08-01","Challenges_list":["Man Group\u2019s Good Question Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the \"Big Three\" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Ratings Scale). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics - US Credit Rating). A downgrade to the outlook or a negative watch alone would not count (Investopedia - Negative Watch).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 30 June 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2023 and 15 August 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 August 2023 and 30 September 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2023 and 15 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 16 November 2023 and 31 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Not before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"}},"choices":["Before 30 June 2023","Between 1 July 2023 and 15 August 2023","Between 16 August 2023 and 30 September 2023","Between 1 October 2023 and 15 November 2023","Between 16 November 2023 and 31 December 2023","Not before 1 January 2024"],"target":"Between 1 July 2023 and 15 August 2023"}
{"Question":"How many EV Green Charger locations for electric vehicles will there be in Dubai as of 1 August 2023, according to the Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (DEWA)?","Started_time":"2022-12-02","Closed_time":"2023-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Environment"],"Description":"DEWA launched its Electric Vehicle (EV) Green Charger Initiative in 2015 to promote green transportation in the Dubai (DEWA). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by DEWA at approximately 5:00PM ET on 1 August 2023 (DEWA - EV Green Charger locations). As of 30 November 2022, there were 139 EV Green Charger locations.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 139":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 139 and 148":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Between 149 and 158":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 159 and 168":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 168":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 139","Between 139 and 148","Between 149 and 158","Between 159 and 168","More than 168"],"target":"Between 139 and 148"}
{"Question":"How many hectares (ha) will be consumed by wildfires in Canada in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-06-23","Closed_time":"2023-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Environment","Canada has already seen a devastating start to the wildfire season in 2023 (NASDAQ, CTV, CBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) in its \"Canada Report\" for 2023, expected in early 2024 (CIFFC - Annual Reports). In 2022, wildland fires consumed 1,656,504 hectares in Canada (CIFFC - Canada Report 2022, see page 15). A \"hectare\" is a metric unit of measure for area equivalent to 2.471 acres (Britannica - Hectare). Additional periodic data are available from CIFFC (CIFFC National Fire Situation Report)."],"Description":"This question is a companion to the original #2893 launched on 26 May 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 7.50 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7.50 million and 8.25 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 8.25 million but fewer than 9.00 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 9.00 million and 9.75 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 9.75 million but fewer than 10.50 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 10.50 million and 11.25 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 11.25 million but fewer than 12.00 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 12.00 million and 12.75 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 12.75 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 7.50 million","Between 7.50 million and 8.25 million, inclusive","More than 8.25 million but fewer than 9.00 million","Between 9.00 million and 9.75 million, inclusive","More than 9.75 million but fewer than 10.50 million","Between 10.50 million and 11.25 million, inclusive","More than 11.25 million but fewer than 12.00 million","Between 12.00 million and 12.75 million, inclusive","More than 12.75 million"],"target":"More than 12.75 million"}
{"Question":"Will all seven states that share the Colorado River Basin sign a proposal to the Bureau of Reclamation agreeing on Colorado River water usage cuts before 1 August 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-17","Closed_time":"2023-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Environment","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"On 31 January 2023, six of the seven states (California didn't participate) that share the Colorado River Basin submitted a proposal to cut back on water usage from the river to help ensure that minimum levels in reservoirs on the river are maintained (UPI, NPR - Northern Colorado, Southern Nevada Water Authority). California offered its own proposal, but there is no consensus among the seven states (AP, The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.86%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.14%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for June 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-09","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with the number of job openings above 10 million for the 13th consecutive month in July 2022 (CNBC, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for June 2023, expected in July or August 2023 (BLS - JOLTS). As of 9 September 2022, the number of job openings reported for June 2022 for \"Total US\" was 11,040 (in thousands) (JOLTS - July 2022, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/jlt\/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Total nonfarm.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and\/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 7.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7.2 million and 8.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 8.0 million but fewer than 8.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Between 8.8 million and 9.6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"More than 9.6 million but fewer than 10.4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"Between 10.4 million and 11.2 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than 11.2 million but fewer than 12.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"12.0 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 7.2 million","Between 7.2 million and 8.0 million, inclusive","More than 8.0 million but fewer than 8.8 million","Between 8.8 million and 9.6 million, inclusive","More than 9.6 million but fewer than 10.4 million","Between 10.4 million and 11.2 million, inclusive","More than 11.2 million but fewer than 12.0 million","12.0 million or more"],"target":"Between 8.8 million and 9.6 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will happen next with respect to the used car company Carvana?","Started_time":"2023-03-03","Closed_time":"2023-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"With the car market cooling down as supply chain woes ease and interest rates rising, Carvana is facing various struggles (The Drive, Yahoo Finance, Kelly Blue Book). The question would close early upon a bankruptcy filing from Carvana in the US or an announcement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission that a party or parties has agreed to either merge with or purchase the whole company.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Carvana will file for bankruptcy in the US":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Carvana will announce an agreement that it will either merge with or be acquired by another firm":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Neither will occur before 1 August 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"}},"choices":["Carvana will file for bankruptcy in the US","Carvana will announce an agreement that it will either merge with or be acquired by another firm","Neither will occur before 1 August 2023"],"target":"Neither will occur before 1 August 2023"}
{"Question":"Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under \"Assessed Russian Control\" before 1 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?","Started_time":"2023-04-12","Closed_time":"2023-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (NBC News, Politico, France 24). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW, labeled \"The Autonomous Republic of Crimea\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.41%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.59%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 August 2023, will the Israeli Knesset pass an amendment to the \"Basic Law: The Judiciary\" amending the composition of the country's Committee for the Selection of Judges?","Started_time":"2023-03-31","Closed_time":"2023-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Mass protests have erupted across Israel for weeks as the government seeks to amend its quasi-constitutional Basic Law regarding the judiciary to, among other things, give the government more influence on the selection of judges in the country (Voice of America, BBC, Times of Israel, NPR, The Committee for the Selection of Judges [in Hebrew], Draft Basic Law: The Judiciary (Amendment No. 3) [in Hebrew]). The amendment would be deemed passed upon its passage on the third reading (Knesset - Legislation). Subsequent action by the Israeli judiciary, including the Supreme Court, would be immaterial (Times of Israel). The abolition of the committee would count, but a renaming alone would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.94%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.06%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 August 2023, will a US release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and\/or publisher?","Started_time":"2023-02-17","Closed_time":"2023-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in George R. R. Martin's \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (Rotten Tomatoes). There have been rumors that it could be released in 2023, though similar claims have been made in the past (Epic Stream, Express, Entertainment Weekly). A sixth novel in the series would count even if renamed from The Winds of Winter.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.17%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.83%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 August 2023, will India and Taiwan either sign or announce the completion of negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA)?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2023-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"India and Taiwan began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2021 (Economic Times, Diplomat, The Hindu). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., NZ Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade, BBC - EU-Mercosur announcement).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.44%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.56%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 28 July 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-16","Closed_time":"2023-07-28","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Growth expectations for the S&P 500 in 2023 have moderated going into the end of 2022 (Economist, US News & World Report, JPMorgan). The outcome will be determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3,150":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,150 and 3,400, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,400 but less than 3,650":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,650 and 3,900, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 3,900 but less than 4,150":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 4,150 and 4,400, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"More than 4,400 but less than 4,650":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"4,650 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"}},"choices":["Less than 3,150","Between 3,150 and 3,400, inclusive","More than 3,400 but less than 3,650","Between 3,650 and 3,900, inclusive","More than 3,900 but less than 4,150","Between 4,150 and 4,400, inclusive","More than 4,400 but less than 4,650","4,650 or more"],"target":"More than 4,400 but less than 4,650"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the S&P\/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for May 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-16","Closed_time":"2023-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The US housing market has begun to slow amid rising mortgage rates and general economic anxiety (US News & World Report, CNBC, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using S&P\/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined when monthly index data for May 2023 are first available, expected in July.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 264.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 264.000 and 276.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 276.000 but lower than 288.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Between 288.000 and 300.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Higher than 300.000 but lower than 312.000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Between 312.000 and 324.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher than 324.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 264.000","Between 264.000 and 276.000, inclusive","Higher than 276.000 but lower than 288.000","Between 288.000 and 300.000, inclusive","Higher than 300.000 but lower than 312.000","Between 312.000 and 324.000, inclusive","Higher than 324.000"],"target":"Higher than 300.000 but lower than 312.000"}
{"Question":"What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (US News & World Report, CNN). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in July 2023 (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Higher by 3.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 3.0%","Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive","Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%","Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive","Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%","Higher by 3.0% or more"],"target":"Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%"}
{"Question":"What will be the US domestic box office gross for the movie Barbie between and including 21 July 2023 and 6 August 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2023-07-18","Closed_time":"2023-07-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"Barbie is a live-action comedy adventure film based on the toy of the same name (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 6 August 2023 and the outcome determined using total non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for 21 July through and including 6 August 2023 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 21 July 2023 (Collider).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $70 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between $70 million and $100 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $100 million but less than $130 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $130 million and $160 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $160 million but less than $190 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"$190 million or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"}},"choices":["Less than $70 million","Between $70 million and $100 million, inclusive","More than $100 million but less than $130 million","Between $130 million and $160 million, inclusive","More than $160 million but less than $190 million","$190 million or more"],"target":"$190 million or more"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 26 July 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 14 June 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-24","Closed_time":"2023-07-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 25-26 July 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"Will the upper limit of the US federal funds target range reach or exceed 5.50% before 21 September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2023-07-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","US Policy"],"Description":"The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates to combat inflation throughout 2022, which has raised fears of a potential recession in 2023 (USA Today, US News & World Report). The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which raised the upper range of the federal funds rate to 4.50% at its December 2022 meeting and released a new Summary of Economic Projections (Federal Reserve - FOMC Statement December 2022, Federal Reserve - Summary of Economic Projections December 2022). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.10%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.90%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the US \"M2\" money supply as of 26 June 2023?","Started_time":"2022-06-03","Closed_time":"2023-06-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"In April 2022, the US \"M2\" money supply metric contracted by the largest amount in decades amid the Federal Reserve's moves to being tightening monetary policy (CNBC, Investopedia, Federal Reserve Money Stock Measures - H.6 Release). The question will be suspended on 25 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED). As of 28 March 2022, the value of US M2 was $21,924.7 billion.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $19,250.0 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $19,250.0 billion and $20,000.0 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than $20,000.0 billion but less than $20,750.0 billion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"Between $20,750.0 billion and $21,500.0 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"More than $21,500.0 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than $19,250.0 billion","Between $19,250.0 billion and $20,000.0 billion, inclusive","More than $20,000.0 billion but less than $20,750.0 billion","Between $20,750.0 billion and $21,500.0 billion, inclusive","More than $21,500.0 billion"],"target":"More than $20,000.0 billion but less than $20,750.0 billion"}
{"Question":"Will the People's Party (PP, sometimes translated as \"Popular Party\") win more seats in the Congress of Deputies than any other party in the next Spanish general election?","Started_time":"2023-06-02","Closed_time":"2023-07-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After heavy losses for his party in local elections, Prime Minister Pedro S\u00e1nchez called for early parliamentary elections to be held on 23 July 2023 (AP, Politico, Politico - Spain Poll of Polls). The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), to which S\u00e1nchez belongs, won 120 seats in the Congress of Deputies in the November 2019 general election, with PP winning 88 and Vox winning 52 (Guardian). If two or more parties are on the party lists that includes PP and\/or Vox, the seat count for that party list would count (European Parliament - 2019 Spanish Election Results, see \"PSOE\/PSC,\" a list that included both the PSOE and the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC)).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the combined seat total for PP and Vox will represent a majority of all seats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"},"Yes, but the combined seat total for PP and Vox will not represent a majority of all seats":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the combined seat total for PP and Vox will represent a majority of all seats","Yes, but the combined seat total for PP and Vox will not represent a majority of all seats","No"],"target":"Yes, but the combined seat total for PP and Vox will not represent a majority of all seats"}
{"Question":"How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from January 2023 through June 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?","Started_time":"2023-01-13","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The flow of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico remains a hot political issue, with President Biden making his first trip to the border in January 2023 (NPR, ABC News, Axios). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the months of January 2023 through June 2023 once data for June 2023 are first reported (CBP). Between January 2022 and June 2022, CBP reported a total of 1,228,213 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 700,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 700,000 and 900,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,100,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"Between 1,100,000 and 1,300,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"More than 1,300,000 but fewer than 1,500,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"1,500,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 700,000","Between 700,000 and 900,000, inclusive","More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,100,000","Between 1,100,000 and 1,300,000, inclusive","More than 1,300,000 but fewer than 1,500,000","1,500,000 or more"],"target":"More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,100,000"}
{"Question":"What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) \"Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)\" for June 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Youth unemployment in the PRC was a problem in 2022, with the unemployment rate for those between 16 and 24 years of age nearly hitting 20% in July 2022 (CNN, France 24). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (National Bureau of Statistics). To access the data, click \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators,\" then click \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" option immediately underneath. The relevant data may be found in the row titled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%).\" Use the horizontal scroll bar to the right to scroll through the monthly data. In January 2022, the rate was 15.3%. Please note that your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics. Statistica also reports these data at the following link, but the data as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics will be used for resolution (Statistica).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 14.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 14.0% and 15.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 15.0% but less than 16.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16.0% and 17.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 17.0% but less than 18.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 18.0% and 19.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 19.0% but less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"20.0% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"}},"choices":["Less than 14.0%","Between 14.0% and 15.0%, inclusive","More than 15.0% but less than 16.0%","Between 16.0% and 17.0%, inclusive","More than 17.0% but less than 18.0%","Between 18.0% and 19.0%, inclusive","More than 19.0% but less than 20.0%","20.0% or more"],"target":"20.0% or more"}
{"Question":"What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in the first half of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"As interest rates have risen, US homebuilding has declined (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for \"Housing Units Started.\" In the file, find the \"StartsUA\" sheet. The total number of starts in the first half of 2022 (January through June) was 839.5 thousand, or 839,500. Please note that monthly figures are often reported as annualized rates, and this question is concerned with actual monthly figures.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 400,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 400,000 and 550,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 550,000 but fewer than 700,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Between 700,000 and 850,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"},"More than 850,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 400,000","Between 400,000 and 550,000, inclusive","More than 550,000 but fewer than 700,000","Between 700,000 and 850,000, inclusive","More than 850,000"],"target":"Between 700,000 and 850,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What percentage of workers in British Columbia (BC) will have worked from home between July 2021 and December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-11-29","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as provided by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada). From April 2020 to June 2021, 27.8% of workers in BC worked from home (Statistics Canada - Working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic, April 2020 to June 2021, see Table 1). Statistics Canada has confirmed that they will provide a report including these same data for July 2021 through December 2022, which is expected in early 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Between 20.0% and 25.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"More than 25.0% but less than 30.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"Between 30.0% and 35.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"More than 35.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Less than 20.0%","Between 20.0% and 25.0%, inclusive","More than 25.0% but less than 30.0%","Between 30.0% and 35.0%, inclusive","More than 35.0%"],"target":"Between 20.0% and 25.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-07","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"China has set a GDP growth target of \"around 5%\" for 2023 (CNBC, IMF). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in July 2023 (Trading Economics).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Higher by less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher by between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"Higher by between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54%"},"Higher by more than 6.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"}},"choices":["Higher by less than 3.0%","Higher by between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%","Higher by between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 6.0%"],"target":"Higher by more than 6.0%"}
{"Question":"What will be the total US rail freight carload and intermodal unit traffic in May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-03","Closed_time":"2023-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Rail freight traffic has long been seen as a strong economic indicator (American Enterprise Institute). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using unadjusted Bureau of Transportation Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in July 2023 (FRED - Carloads, FRED - Intermodal). Intermodal units include shipping containers and truck trailers moved on rail cars (Association of American Railroads). As of 3 March 2023, total rail freight traffic in May 2022 was 2,235,748 (1,025,945 carloads + 1,209,803 intermodal units).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1.9 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 1.9 million and 2.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.1 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Between 2.1 million and 2.2 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"More than 2.2 million but fewer than 2.3 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"2.3 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1.9 million","Between 1.9 million and 2.0 million, inclusive","More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.1 million","Between 2.1 million and 2.2 million, inclusive","More than 2.2 million but fewer than 2.3 million","2.3 million or more"],"target":"More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.1 million"}
{"Question":"Before 30 September 2023, will the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approve a human birth control pill for sale over the counter (OTC)?","Started_time":"2022-09-02","Closed_time":"2023-07-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Health","US Policy"],"Description":"In July 2022, HRA Pharma, a French pharmaceutical company, submitted an application to the FDA for what would be the first OTC birth control pill in the US (NPR, Politico, FDA - Prescription-to-Nonprescription (Rx-to-OTC) Switches). Approval with limits (e.g., age restrictions) would count. Emergency contraceptives would not count (FDA - Birth Control). Approval of a pill for sale OTC without a prescription but \"behind the counter\" would count (Forbes, National Institutes of Health ).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.04%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24.96%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"As of 30 June 2023, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have been affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, or \"bird flu\") in 2023, according to the USDA?","Started_time":"2023-01-27","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Environment"],"Description":"The HPAI outbreak across the US that started in 2022 continues, and has already led to the deaths of tens of millions of commercial and \"backyard\" birds (Wall Street Journal, Texas Farm Bureau, Tennessee Dept. of Agriculture). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To download the data, first click \"Birds Affected\" in the table titled \"List of Detections by Day.\" Then click the \"Choose a format to download\" to the left of \"Share\" and \"Full Screen\" in the ribbon below that table and select \"Data.\" In the additional window that pops up, click \"Download\" in the upper right to download the data. Figures with \"Confirmed\" dates between and including 1 January 2023 and 30 June 2023 will count. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 12 July 2023. As of 23 January 2023, the total number of birds affected since 2022 was 58,162,044.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 2 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"Between 2 million and 6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 6 million but fewer than 12 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12 million and 20 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 20 million but fewer than 30 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"30 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 2 million","Between 2 million and 6 million, inclusive","More than 6 million but fewer than 12 million","Between 12 million and 20 million, inclusive","More than 20 million but fewer than 30 million","30 million or more"],"target":"Fewer than 2 million"}
{"Question":"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-04","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","Inflation Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Inflation in the US is expected to cool in 2023 versus 2022, with some discussing the potential for deflation (Morningstar, CBS News, CNBC, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for June 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for \"All items,\" expected in July 2023 (BLS). For June 2022, the change was 9.1%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down by more than 0.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Up by 6.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Down by more than 0.0%","Up by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive","Up by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%","Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive","Up by more than 4.5% but less than 6.0%","Up by 6.0% or more"],"target":"Up by between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the US Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index for June 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-27","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Used car prices soared as inflation his across the US economy, though they are off their historic highs in late 2022 (Economist, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Manheim). As of 27 January 2023, the value for June 2022 was 239.9.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 165.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 165.0 and 180.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 180.0 but less than 195.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 195.0 and 210.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 210.0 but less than 225.0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"More than 225.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"}},"choices":["Less than 165.0","Between 165.0 and 180.0, inclusive","More than 180.0 but less than 195.0","Between 195.0 and 210.0, inclusive","More than 210.0 but less than 225.0","More than 225.0"],"target":"More than 210.0 but less than 225.0"}
{"Question":"Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month before July 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-02","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The COVID-19 pandemic hit the us labor market hard, and labor force participation has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels (US News & World Report, Brookings Institution, Fox Business). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.85%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.15%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the FAO Food Price Index value for June 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index has fallen from highs reached soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, but are expected to rise in 2023 (NASDAQ, US News & World Report, IMF). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for June 2023, expected in early July 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the Food Price Index for December 2022 was 132.4. To download historical nominal data, click either \"Excel\" or \"CSV\" above the chart titled \"FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 118.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 118.0 and 126.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"More than 126.0 but less than 134.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Between 134.0 and 142.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 142.0 but less than 150.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"150.0 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 118.0","Between 118.0 and 126.0, inclusive","More than 126.0 but less than 134.0","Between 134.0 and 142.0, inclusive","More than 142.0 but less than 150.0","150.0 or more"],"target":"Between 118.0 and 126.0, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many NATO member states will spend 2.0% or more of their GDP on defense in 2023?","Started_time":"2022-03-11","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the role and capabilities of NATO, including defense spending, are in the spotlight (Defense News, NATO - News). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data from the first NATO defense expenditure report that includes data for 2023 released in 2023, including estimates (NATO - Information on defence expenditures). In case of any ambiguity between the PDF and the spreadsheet downloads, figures per \"Download the tables in Excel format\" will be used. According to the June 2021 report, which included estimates for 2021 spending, ten countries spent 2.0% or more of their real GDP on defense (NATO - Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2021), see Download options at bottom of page).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"10 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Between 11 and 13":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"Between 14 and 16":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"Between 17 and 19":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"20 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["10 or fewer","Between 11 and 13","Between 14 and 16","Between 17 and 19","20 or more"],"target":"Between 11 and 13"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual percentage change in the National Consumer Price Index in Pakistan in June 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-20","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Pakistan is facing inflation as the country recovers from massive flooding in 2022 and dwindling foreign reserves (Business Standard, Al Jazeera). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Trading Economics). In December 2022, the National Consumer Price Index rose 24.47% versus December 2021 (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics - CPI Monthly Review December 2022, see \"General\" row in Table 1).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 10.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher by between 10.00% and 20.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher by more than 20.00% but less than 30.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Higher by between 30.00% and 40.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"Higher by more than 40.00% but less than 50.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"50.00% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 10.00%","Higher by between 10.00% and 20.00%, inclusive","Higher by more than 20.00% but less than 30.00%","Higher by between 30.00% and 40.00%, inclusive","Higher by more than 40.00% but less than 50.00%","50.00% or higher"],"target":"Higher by more than 20.00% but less than 30.00%"}
{"Question":"What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 3 July 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?","Started_time":"2022-12-16","Closed_time":"2023-07-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Gas prices have fallen considerably from record highs set in the summer of 2022, but supply issues and other factors could put pressure on prices in 2023 (Cooperative, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 2 July 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 3 July 2023 (AAA, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $2.20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.20 and $2.60, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $2.60 but less than $3.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $3.00 and $3.40, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"More than $3.40 but less than $3.80":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"Between $3.80 and $4.20, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $4.20 but less than $4.60":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $4.60 and $5.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $5.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $2.20","Between $2.20 and $2.60, inclusive","More than $2.60 but less than $3.00","Between $3.00 and $3.40, inclusive","More than $3.40 but less than $3.80","Between $3.80 and $4.20, inclusive","More than $4.20 but less than $4.60","Between $4.60 and $5.00, inclusive","More than $5.00"],"target":"More than $3.40 but less than $3.80"}
{"Question":"Will legislation raising the French minimum retirement age from 62 become law before 1 July 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-17","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Large protests have broken out across France as President Emmanuel Macron pushes for parliament to raise the minimum retirement age from 62 (AP, Le Monde, Centre for European and International Social Security Liaisons). For the purposes of this question, legislation would be considered to become law upon its promulgation (i.e., signing) by the President of the Republic (e-Justice). Legislation with exceptions to a raised minimum retirement age (e.g., occupational exceptions or credit) would count, and the date the raise would take effect would be immaterial. Implementation by ordinance would not count (French Constitution, see Articles 38, 47, and 49).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27.96%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72.04%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the price of bitcoin on 30 June 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-06","Closed_time":"2023-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 30 June 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, set chart to \"1M\").This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $8,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $8,000.00 and $12,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $12,000.00 but less than $16,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $16,000.00 and $20,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $20,000.00 but less than $24,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between $24,000.00 and $28,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than $28,000.00 but less than $32,000.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"$32,000.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"}},"choices":["Less than $8,000.00","Between $8,000.00 and $12,000.00, inclusive","More than $12,000.00 but less than $16,000.00","Between $16,000.00 and $20,000.00, inclusive","More than $20,000.00 but less than $24,000.00","Between $24,000.00 and $28,000.00, inclusive","More than $28,000.00 but less than $32,000.00","$32,000.00 or more"],"target":"More than $28,000.00 but less than $32,000.00"}
{"Question":"Will Finland and\/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 July 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-30","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 18 May 2022, the countries of Finland and Sweden both submitted applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and approval from Hungary and Turkey were the final remaining obstacles to membership as of the end of 2022 (NATO, NPR, Euronews, NATO Parliamentary Assembly). The latest country to join NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020 (NATO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, Finland only":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Yes, Sweden only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both Finland and Sweden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Yes, Finland only","Yes, Sweden only","Yes, both Finland and Sweden","No"],"target":"Yes, Finland only"}
{"Question":"Will the US Department of Justice and\/or the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) file either a civil complaint or a criminal charge against Live Nation Entertainment for antitrust violations before 1 July 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-03","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Live Nation Entertainment, of which Ticketmaster is a part, is facing heavy scrutiny for its botched release of Taylor Swift concert tickets in late 2022 amid claims that it is a monopoly in violation of federal antitrust law (CNBC, CBS News, AP, Department of Justice - Antitrust Laws and You). Complaints or charges under seal would only count upon being unsealed, and complaints filed in court or as an administrative action would count.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.36%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.64%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2023, will the Federal Reserve announce a cut in the US federal funds rate?","Started_time":"2022-07-01","Closed_time":"2023-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to combat inflation, there are concerns whether the US will be pushed into recession (JP Morgan, The Hill, US News & World Report). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market deteriorates, if inflation falls) would not count. The last time the Federal Reserve announced a cut to the US federal funds rate was 15 March 2020 (Federal Reserve).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.96%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.04%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 3 February 2023 and 30 June 2023, how will the Russell 1000 Growth Index (Growth Index) perform as compared to the Russell 1000 Value Index (Value Index)?","Started_time":"2023-02-03","Closed_time":"2023-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 29 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance - Russell 1000 Growth, Google Finance - Russell 1000 Value). The closing values of each index for 30 June 2023 will be divided by their respective closing values for 3 February 2023 to determine the performance, or percentage change. The difference in percentage points of each calculation will determine the resolution. In the event of an exact tie, the index with the greater percentage increase at any point between the close on 3 February 2023 to the close on 30 June 2023 would be deemed the outperformer.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Growth Index will outperform the Value Index by 3.0 percentage points or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"The Growth Index will outperform the Value Index by less than 3.0 percentage points":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"The Value Index will outperform the Growth Index by less than 3.0 percentage points":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The Value Index will outperform the Growth Index by 3.0 percentage points or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["The Growth Index will outperform the Value Index by 3.0 percentage points or more","The Growth Index will outperform the Value Index by less than 3.0 percentage points","The Value Index will outperform the Growth Index by less than 3.0 percentage points","The Value Index will outperform the Growth Index by 3.0 percentage points or more"],"target":"The Growth Index will outperform the Value Index by 3.0 percentage points or more"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) on 30 June 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2023-06-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"The DFMGI is an index showing general market performance of the Dubai Financial Market (DFM). The question will be suspended on 29 June 2023 and the outcome determined using DFMGI data as reported by the DFM (DFM - Indicies, see charting tool, DFM - About). The closing value on 21 November 2022 was 3,339.25.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2,750":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 2,750 and 3,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 3,000 but less than 3,250":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 3,250 and 3,500, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 3,500 but less than 3,750":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"Between 3,750 and 4,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"},"More than 4,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 2,750","Between 2,750 and 3,000, inclusive","More than 3,000 but less than 3,250","Between 3,250 and 3,500, inclusive","More than 3,500 but less than 3,750","Between 3,750 and 4,000, inclusive","More than 4,000"],"target":"Between 3,750 and 4,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"In Biden v. Nebraska, will the Supreme Court rule that any of the Respondents in the case has Article III standing to challenge the Biden administration's student loan forgiveness program?","Started_time":"2022-12-16","Closed_time":"2023-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"After President Biden announced in August 2022 his plan to forgive up to $20,000 of federal student loan debt, various groups filed lawsuits to stop it, including the states of Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, and South Carolina (Respondents) (Whitehouse.gov, Lincoln Journal Star). Respondents were granted an injunction to prevent the plan from proceeding, eventually leading to the Supreme Court to agree to hear the case on its merits this term (CNBC, CNET, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2022 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be Nike's sales in Greater China in its 2023 fiscal year (FY2023)?","Started_time":"2022-10-04","Closed_time":"2023-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Nike's sales, or revenues, have generally recovered from the worst of COVID, except for Greater China (CNBC, Retail Dive). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Nike's 2023 Annual Report (Nike - Investor Reports). In FY2022, Nike reported total sales of $7,547 million, or $7.547 billion. (Nike - 2022 Form 10-K, see page 39 of the report). Nike's FY2023 runs from 1 June 2022 to 31 May 2023, and \"Greater China\" includes mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $7.0 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between $7.0 billion and $7.5 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"More than $7.5 billion but less than $8.0 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Between $8.0 billion and $8.5 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"More than $8.5 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"}},"choices":["Less than $7.0 billion","Between $7.0 billion and $7.5 billion, inclusive","More than $7.5 billion but less than $8.0 billion","Between $8.0 billion and $8.5 billion, inclusive","More than $8.5 billion"],"target":"Between $7.0 billion and $7.5 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be Vietnam's annual GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-07","Closed_time":"2023-06-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Like much of the rest of the world, Vietnam is dealing with various obstacles to economic growth (VN Express, VietNamNet). The question will be suspended on 28 June 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam as first reported by Trading Economics, expected on or about 29 June 2023 (Trading Economics).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Higher by less than 1.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher by between 1.0% and 2.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher by more than 2.0% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Higher by between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Higher by 5.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Higher by less than 1.0%","Higher by between 1.0% and 2.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 2.0% but less than 3.0%","Higher by between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%","Higher by 5.0% or more"],"target":"Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 5.0%"}
{"Question":"In Moore v. Harper, will the Supreme Court rule that the North Carolina courts did not have the legal authority to strike down the NC General Assembly's congressional districting maps?","Started_time":"2022-09-02","Closed_time":"2023-06-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda","US Policy"],"Description":"In February 2022, the NC Supreme Court struck down congressional district maps approved by the state General Assembly as \"illegal partisan gerrymanders\" (Politico, NC Supreme Court Decision). NC House Speaker Tim Moore appealed, asserting that the federal constitution vests the legislature with the sole authority to regulate federal elections (Oyez, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2022 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23.18%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76.82%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many hectares (ha) will be consumed by wildfires in Canada in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-05-26","Closed_time":"2023-06-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Environment"],"Description":"Canada has already seen a devastating start to the wildfire season in 2023 (NASDAQ, CTV, CBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) in its \"Canada Report\" for 2023, expected in early 2024 (CIFFC - Annual Reports). In 2022, wildland fires consumed 1,656,504 hectares in Canada (CIFFC - Canada Report 2022, see page 15). A \"hectare\" is a metric unit of measure for area equivalent to 2.471 acres (Britannica - Hectare). Additional periodic data are available from CIFFC (CIFFC National Fire Situation Report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 3.00 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 3.00 million and 3.75 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 3.75 million but fewer than 4.50 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 4.50 million and 5.25 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5.25 million but fewer than 6.00 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.00 million and 6.75 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6.75 million but fewer than 7.50 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"7.50 million or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 3.00 million","Between 3.00 million and 3.75 million, inclusive","More than 3.75 million but fewer than 4.50 million","Between 4.50 million and 5.25 million, inclusive","More than 5.25 million but fewer than 6.00 million","Between 6.00 million and 6.75 million, inclusive","More than 6.75 million but fewer than 7.50 million","7.50 million or more"],"target":"7.50 million or more"}
{"Question":"Which country will win the 2023 UEFA Nations League Final?","Started_time":"2023-04-13","Closed_time":"2023-06-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Fifty-five countries competed in the UEFA Nations League tournament, which will end in games among the four League A group winners in the Netherlands (UEFA - Nations League Finals). The third UEFA Nations League Final is scheduled for 18 June 2023 (UEFA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Croatia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"Italy":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Netherlands":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Spain":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"}},"choices":["Croatia","Italy","Netherlands","Spain"],"target":"Spain"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index on 16 June 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-17","Closed_time":"2023-06-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","US Policy"],"Description":"The banking sector was hit hard by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in early March 2023, though intervention by the FDIC and Federal Reserve at least initially calmed the situation (CNBC, CNN). The question will be suspended on 15 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set chart to \"1M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1,200.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,200.00 and 1,350.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"More than 1,350.00 but less than 1,500.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"74%"},"Between 1,500.00 and 1,650.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 1,650.00 but less than 1,800.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,800.00 and 1,950.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,950.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1,200.00","Between 1,200.00 and 1,350.00, inclusive","More than 1,350.00 but less than 1,500.00","Between 1,500.00 and 1,650.00, inclusive","More than 1,650.00 but less than 1,800.00","Between 1,800.00 and 1,950.00, inclusive","More than 1,950.00"],"target":"Between 1,200.00 and 1,350.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 14 June 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-03","Closed_time":"2023-06-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 13-14 June 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"How many worker actions will the China Labour Bulletin (CLB) report between 1 December 2022 and 31 May 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-02","Closed_time":"2023-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The CLB is an NGO that, among other things, tracks worker incidents in the People's Republic of China (CLB). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CLB in its Strike Map (CLB - Strike Map). To download the data, select the relevant ranges for \"Date,\" and \"All\" for location and industry. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 14 June 2023. CLB reported 530 worker actions between 1 December 2021 and 31 May 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 300":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Between 300 and 500, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 500 but fewer than 700":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Between 700 and 900, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 900 but fewer than 1,100":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"1,100 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 300","Between 300 and 500, inclusive","More than 500 but fewer than 700","Between 700 and 900, inclusive","More than 900 but fewer than 1,100","1,100 or more"],"target":"More than 500 but fewer than 700"}
{"Question":"Which NHL team will win the 2023 Stanley Cup Final?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2023-06-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2023 Stanley Cup Final is scheduled for June 2023 (NHL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Boston Bruins":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Calgary Flames":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Carolina Hurricanes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Colorado Avalanche":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Edmonton Oilers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Florida Panthers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Minnesota Wild":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New York Rangers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pittsburgh Penguins":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tampa Bay Lightning":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Toronto Maple Leafs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Vegas Golden Knights":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Boston Bruins","Calgary Flames","Carolina Hurricanes","Colorado Avalanche","Edmonton Oilers","Florida Panthers","Minnesota Wild","New York Rangers","Pittsburgh Penguins","Tampa Bay Lightning","Toronto Maple Leafs","Vegas Golden Knights","Another team"],"target":"Vegas Golden Knights"}
{"Question":"What will be the unadjusted percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)  for coffee in May 2023 as compared to May 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-17","Closed_time":"2023-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 May 2023 and the outcome determined using \"Unadjusted percent change\/May 2022 - May 2023\" data as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, expected in June 2023 (BLS - CPI, BLS - CPI Release Archive). For May 2022, the BLS reported an unadjusted annual percentage change for coffee of 15.3% (BLS - CPI May 2022, see Table 2 for \"Coffee\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down by more than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Down by between 0.0% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Up by more than 0.0% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Up by between 3.0% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Up by more than 6.0% but less than 9.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Up by between 9.0% and 12.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Up by more than 12.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Down by more than 3.0%","Down by between 0.0% and 3.0%, inclusive","Up by more than 0.0% but less than 3.0%","Up by between 3.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","Up by more than 6.0% but less than 9.0%","Up by between 9.0% and 12.0%, inclusive","Up by more than 12.0%"],"target":"Up by between 3.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?","Started_time":"2023-02-03","Closed_time":"2023-06-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2022-23 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 18 June 2023 (NBA - Key Dates, NBA - Standings).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Boston Celtics":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Brooklyn Nets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Denver Nuggets":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"Memphis Grizzlies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Milwaukee Bucks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Boston Celtics","Brooklyn Nets","Denver Nuggets","Memphis Grizzlies","Milwaukee Bucks","Another team"],"target":"Denver Nuggets"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2023 NBA Finals?","Started_time":"2022-10-21","Closed_time":"2023-06-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2022-23 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 18 June 2023 (NBA - Key Dates, NBA - Standings).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Boston Celtics":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Brooklyn Nets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Dallas Mavericks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Denver Nuggets":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Golden State Warriors":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Clippers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Memphis Grizzlies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Miami Heat":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Milwaukee Bucks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Philadelphia 76ers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Phoenix Suns":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Boston Celtics","Brooklyn Nets","Dallas Mavericks","Denver Nuggets","Golden State Warriors","Los Angeles Clippers","Memphis Grizzlies","Miami Heat","Milwaukee Bucks","Philadelphia 76ers","Phoenix Suns","Another team"],"target":"Denver Nuggets"}
{"Question":"When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?","Started_time":"2023-03-17","Closed_time":"2023-06-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"North Korea has launched two ICBMs thus far in 2023, one of which came as the leaders of South Korea and Japan held their first bilateral meeting in over a decade (BBC, NPR, AP). For the purposes of this question, ambiguous reporting regarding the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 16 June 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Between 16 June 2023 and 15 September 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Not before 16 September 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"}},"choices":["Before 16 June 2023","Between 16 June 2023 and 15 September 2023","Not before 16 September 2023"],"target":"Before 16 June 2023"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and\/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 12 June 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-11","Closed_time":"2023-06-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, NATO continues to support the country's defense without direct involvement (The Hill, Axios, Unian [in Ukrainian]). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and\/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered \"national military forces and\/or law enforcement\" (e.g., AP, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.15%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.85%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which football (soccer) club will win the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League final?","Started_time":"2022-09-16","Closed_time":"2023-06-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2022-23 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atat\u00fcrk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey, on 10 June 2023 (UEFA - News, UEFA - Clubs).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Barcelona":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bayern Munich":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Chelsea":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Liverpool":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Manchester City":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"Paris SG":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Real Madrid":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tottenham":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another football club":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"}},"choices":["Barcelona","Bayern Munich","Chelsea","Liverpool","Manchester City","Paris SG","Real Madrid","Tottenham","Another football club"],"target":"Manchester City"}
{"Question":"Between 9 December 2022 and 9 June 2023, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?","Started_time":"2022-12-09","Closed_time":"2023-06-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid an increase in ballistic missile tests in 2022, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (Vox, Voice of America). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.47%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.53%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 24 February 2023 and 25 August 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and\/or state crime in the US?","Started_time":"2023-02-24","Closed_time":"2023-06-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Former President Trump is currently under investigation by various US jurisdictions (Vox, AP, USA Today). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (Cornell, see Definition (1), Legal Beagle). Contempt charges or citations imposed by a judge or judicial officer alone would not count (Cornell).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, a federal crime only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, a state crime only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, a federal crime only","Yes, a state crime only","Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime","No"],"target":"Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime"}
{"Question":"What will be Ukraine's annual rate of inflation in May 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-30","Closed_time":"2023-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Ukraine continues to fight against Russia's invasion, the country is also battle wartime inflation (US News & World Report, Deutsche Welle). The outcome will be determined using annual consumer price data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics). For historical data, visit https:\/\/ukrstat.gov.ua\/. On the page, click \"ENG\" in the upper right corner, then click \"Statistical information\" on the blue ribbon near the top, then click \"Prices\" under Economic statistics, and then click \"Consumer price indices for goods and services (to corresponding month of previous year)\" under \"Consumer price indices.\" As of 30 September 2022, Ukraine's annual rate of inflation for May 2022 was 18.0%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 10.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 10.0% and 16.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"},"Higher than 16.0% but lower than 22.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"Between 22.0% and 28.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Higher than 28.0% but lower than 34.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 34.0% and 40.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 40.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 10.0%","Between 10.0% and 16.0%, inclusive","Higher than 16.0% but lower than 22.0%","Between 22.0% and 28.0%, inclusive","Higher than 28.0% but lower than 34.0%","Between 34.0% and 40.0%, inclusive","More than 40.0%"],"target":"Between 10.0% and 16.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the Bank of Canada's policy interest rate target exceed 4.75% before 8 June 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-09","Closed_time":"2023-06-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Bank of Canada, the country's central bank, sets a target interest rate for overnight lending to banks that influences interest rates, including the prime rate, throughout the Canadian economy (Investopedia, Bank of Canada). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Bank of Canada (Bank of Canada - Policy Interest Rate). At its 7 December 2022 meeting, the Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate target to 4.25% (Bank of Canada - 7 December 2022 Release, CBC). The question will close on the date of the announcement, rather than the date on which an increase would take effect.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.19%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91.81%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the percentage change in real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022?","Started_time":"2022-10-07","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The EU is facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term (NASDAQ, CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for real GDP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) upon the release of the final estimate for the first quarter of 2023, called the \"GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the first quarter of 2023,\" expected in early June 2023 (FRED). The value for the first quarter of 2023 (Q1 2023) will be divided by the value for the fourth quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022) to determine the rate of real GDP growth, which can be done on the FRED page by 1) clicking \"EDIT GRAPH,\" and 2) changing \"Units:\" to \"Percent Change.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by 2.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Lower by between 1.0% and 2.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54%"},"Higher by more than 1.0% but less than 2.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Higher by 2.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Lower by 2.0% or more","Lower by between 1.0% and 2.0%, inclusive","Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.0%","Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 1.0% but less than 2.0%","Higher by 2.0% or more"],"target":"Higher by between 0.0% and 1.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will Elon Musk cease to be Twitter's sole CEO?","Started_time":"2023-02-17","Closed_time":"2023-06-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Musk has been the sole CEO of Twitter since its acquisition and is seeking out a replacement (CNBC, The Verge). The addition of a co-CEO would count. The appointment of house pets, livestock, fantasy characters, or other non-natural persons would not count (e.g., Twitter).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 August 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"Between 1 August 2023 and 31 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Not before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"}},"choices":["Before 1 August 2023","Between 1 August 2023 and 31 December 2023","Not before 1 January 2024"],"target":"Before 1 August 2023"}
{"Question":"Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 6.50% before 3 June 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-17","Closed_time":"2023-06-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"With the fallout from bank failures being felt throughout the financial system, borrowing costs for \"high-yield\" bonds (aka junk bonds) jumped in mid-March 2023 (US News & World Report, Yahoo Finance, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread\" (FRED). For 16 March 2023, the spread was 4.93%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.28%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.72%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the Morena party candidate win the 2023 gubernatorial election in Mexico state (Estado de M\u00e9xico)?","Started_time":"2023-02-10","Closed_time":"2023-06-04","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Mexican President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador's party, Morena, hopes to add the State of Mexico to its list of governorships when voters go to the polls on 4 June 2023 (Economist, CNN Mexico Report, BNamericas).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88.15%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11.85%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will the US next raise, suspend, and\/or abolish its debt ceiling?","Started_time":"2023-01-13","Closed_time":"2023-06-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"After the contentious fight within the Republican Party to elect a Speaker of the House, there are concerns that a major political fight over the US debt ceiling looms (US News, Guardian, CNN). The public debt ceiling (aka public debt limit) is a statutory limit on how much debt the US government may issue, with limited exceptions (Investopedia - Debt Ceiling, Congressional Research Service). As of 16 December 2021, the ceiling was set to its current level of $31,381,462,788,891.71 (US Treasury). Select \"Published Reports\" in the \"Preview & Download\" section, select \"Previous\" under \u201cSelect Report Date,\" and then set the year to \"2022\" and month to \"Dec.\" The value will be in footnote 5.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 May 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Not before 1 January 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Before 1 May 2023","Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023","Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023","Not before 1 January 2024"],"target":"Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023"}
{"Question":"How many of Ballotpedia's \"noteworthy\" candidates will have registered with the FEC to run for US president in 2024 as of 31 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-03","Closed_time":"2023-05-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With the first presidential primaries less than a year away, the field of candidates is expected to grow in the coming months (The Hill, The Conversation). The question will be suspended on 30 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Ballotpedia and the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (Ballotpedia, Federal Election Commission). The list of noteworthy candidates on Ballotpedia will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 May 2023. That list will be checked for registrations dated no later than 31 May 2023 as reported on 2 June 2023 by the FEC.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"6 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 7 and 9":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Between 10 and 12":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"Between 13 and 15":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"16 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["6 or fewer","Between 7 and 9","Between 10 and 12","Between 13 and 15","16 or more"],"target":"Between 10 and 12"}
{"Question":"How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-28","Closed_time":"2023-05-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Total air passenger traffic in the US is close to recovering to pre-pandemic levels (Aviation Week). The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (TSA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 68 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 68 million and 71 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 71 million but fewer than 74 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Between 74 million and 77 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"71%"},"More than 77 million but fewer than 80 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"80 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 68 million","Between 68 million and 71 million, inclusive","More than 71 million but fewer than 74 million","Between 74 million and 77 million, inclusive","More than 77 million but fewer than 80 million","80 million or more"],"target":"Between 74 million and 77 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 June 2023, will President Xi of China and President Zelensky of Ukraine meet in person?","Started_time":"2023-03-08","Closed_time":"2023-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, China has shared a peace plan for the countries (AP, BBC, NBC News). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. If either Xi or Zelensky cease to be the president of their respective countries, the question will close \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.73%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.27%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Turkish lira exchange rate on 31 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-21","Closed_time":"2023-05-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Observers are weighing in on the prospects for the Turkish currency as the country's presidential election looms (NASDAQ, Yahoo). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the US by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 18.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 18.00 and 20.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Higher than 20.00 but lower than 22.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"Between 22.00 and 24.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Higher than 24.00 but lower than 26.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"26.00 or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 18.00","Between 18.00 and 20.00, inclusive","Higher than 20.00 but lower than 22.00","Between 22.00 and 24.00, inclusive","Higher than 24.00 but lower than 26.00","26.00 or higher"],"target":"Higher than 20.00 but lower than 22.00"}
{"Question":"Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 June 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-03","Closed_time":"2023-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as March 2023, though it is waiting for a license from the Federal Aviation Administration (Teslarati, CNET, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.04%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.96%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the US dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate on 31 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-21","Closed_time":"2023-05-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The dollar has come off of highs from last year as recession fears rise and with the prospect of monetary policy changes in Japan (NASDAQ, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the US by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 120.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 120.00 and 125.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 125.00 but lower than 130.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 130.00 and 135.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher than 135.00 but lower than 140.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"Between 140.00 and 145.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Higher than 145.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Lower than 120.00","Between 120.00 and 125.00, inclusive","Higher than 125.00 but lower than 130.00","Between 130.00 and 135.00, inclusive","Higher than 135.00 but lower than 140.00","Between 140.00 and 145.00, inclusive","Higher than 145.00"],"target":"Higher than 135.00 but lower than 140.00"}
{"Question":"Will the Chinese government publicly announce that it has approved the use of a foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for use among its citizens in the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 31 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-15","Closed_time":"2023-05-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"While China in November 2022 agreed to allow German expatriates in the country to receive Pfizer\/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines, China has yet to approve more effective foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for use among Chinese citizens (Politico, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health). An approval does not need to include every Chinese citizen to count, but approvals for research and\/or trials alone would not count. China approving the use of a foreign-developed vaccine that would be manufactured in China would count. China approving the use of a vaccine developed in a partnership between Chinese and foreign firms would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.93%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.07%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 31 May 2023, will a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?","Started_time":"2023-03-08","Closed_time":"2023-05-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As the war in Ukraine continues, fears remain that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons (Atlantic Council, US News & World Report, Daily Mail). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich (Daily Mail, BBC). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to the launch of this question would be immaterial. An accusation must assert that Russia used a weapon that was itself a chemical or biological weapon, but an accusation of the use of white phosphorus and\/or tear gas alone would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.60%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.40%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total visitors will there be to Dubai's Public Parks and Children's City in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Entertainment"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Dubai Statistics Center (Dubai Statistics Center - Culture and Leisure, see \"Visitors of Public Parks and Children's City by Type\"). The figure in the PDF file will be used for resolution. In 2021, there were a total of 4,116,269 visitors to Dubai's Public Parks and Children's City (Visitors of Public Parks and Children's City by Type - Emirate of Dubai (2021 - 2019)).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 4.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 4.0 million and 4.3 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.6 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Between 4.6 million and 4.9 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"More than 4.9 million but fewer than 5.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"5.2 million or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 4.0 million","Between 4.0 million and 4.3 million, inclusive","More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.6 million","Between 4.6 million and 4.9 million, inclusive","More than 4.9 million but fewer than 5.2 million","5.2 million or more"],"target":"5.2 million or more"}
{"Question":"How much liquified natural gas (LNG) will the US export between October 2022 and March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-30","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"US LNG exports will be essential for Europe and others as they attempt to wean themselves off Russian gas as Russia's war in Ukraine continues (US News & World Report, Deutsche Welle, OilPrice.com, Energy Information Administration). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration for October 2022 to March 2023 as of its first report for March 2023 (Energy Information Administration - Liquified US Natural Gas Exports). As of the launch of this question, the EIA reported the US exported 1,984,552 million cubic feet (mcf), or 1.984552 trillion cubic feet (tcf), from October 2021 to March 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.900 tcf":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Between 1.900 tcf and 2.025 tcf, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"More than 2.025 tcf but less than 2.150 tcf":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Between 2.150 tcf and 2.275 tcf, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 2.275 tcf but less than 2.400 tcf":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2.400 tcf or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.900 tcf","Between 1.900 tcf and 2.025 tcf, inclusive","More than 2.025 tcf but less than 2.150 tcf","Between 2.150 tcf and 2.275 tcf, inclusive","More than 2.275 tcf but less than 2.400 tcf","2.400 tcf or more"],"target":"Between 1.900 tcf and 2.025 tcf, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the average price of a litre of gasoline in Vancouver, British Columbia, on 31 May 2023, according to the Canadian Automobile Association (CAA)?","Started_time":"2022-12-09","Closed_time":"2023-05-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society"],"Description":"The price of gasoline in Vancouver, BC, is well off its highs for 2022, though various factors may push prices back up in 2023 (Daily Hive). The question will be suspended on 30 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CAA for 31 May 2023 (CAA, change \"Ontario\" to \"British Columbia\" and select \"Vancouver\" as the city). On 6 December 2022, the average price of a litre of gasoline in Vancouver, BC, was 157.8, or Can$1.578.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than Can$1.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between Can$1.50 and Can$1.75, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than Can$1.75 but less than Can$2.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"Between Can$2.00 and Can$2.25, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than Can$2.25":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than Can$1.50","Between Can$1.50 and Can$1.75, inclusive","More than Can$1.75 but less than Can$2.00","Between Can$2.00 and Can$2.25, inclusive","More than Can$2.25"],"target":"More than Can$1.75 but less than Can$2.00"}
{"Question":"What will be the US domestic box office gross for \"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2023-03-15","Closed_time":"2023-05-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"\"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3\" is the third movie in the franchise (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 28 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the total of non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for 5-29 May 2023 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Daily\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 5 May 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $200 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $200 million and $240 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $240 million but less than $280 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between $280 million and $320 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"More than $320 million but less than $360 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between $360 million and $400 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $400 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $200 million","Between $200 million and $240 million, inclusive","More than $240 million but less than $280 million","Between $280 million and $320 million, inclusive","More than $320 million but less than $360 million","Between $360 million and $400 million, inclusive","More than $400 million"],"target":"Between $280 million and $320 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening holiday weekend for The Little Mermaid, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2023-01-20","Closed_time":"2023-05-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"The Little Mermaid is a live-action remake of the animated Disney film of the same name from 1989 (IMDb - The Little Mermaid). The question will be suspended on 26 May 2023 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 26-29 May 2023 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 26 May 2023, which is Memorial Day weekend.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $50 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $50 million and $100 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"More than $100 million but less than $150 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58%"},"Between $150 million and $200 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"More than $200 million but less than $250 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"$250 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than $50 million","Between $50 million and $100 million, inclusive","More than $100 million but less than $150 million","Between $150 million and $200 million, inclusive","More than $200 million but less than $250 million","$250 million or more"],"target":"More than $100 million but less than $150 million"}
{"Question":"Will the New Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2023 Alberta Legislative Assembly elections?","Started_time":"2023-05-12","Closed_time":"2023-05-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Alberta voters are scheduled to vote on 29 May 2023 in what polls show is a tight race for control of the legislature amid widespread wildfires in the Canadian province (388Canada, CBC, CBC). If the election date is postponed in a constituency or constituencies, the closing date will be extended to accommodate the delayed dates in case the outcome of the question is dependent on their results.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27.10%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72.90%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate win the 2023 Turkish presidential election?","Started_time":"2022-08-26","Closed_time":"2023-05-29","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"President Recep Tayyip \ufeffErdo\u011fan of the AKP has announced that he will run for reelection (ABC News, Middle East Institute). Turkey's next presidential election is scheduled for 2023 with the first round of voting to take place on 18 June 2023, and a runoff is scheduled for 2 July 2023 if needed (Turkey Constitution, see Article 101).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78.66%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21.34%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which football (soccer) club will be the 2022-23 German Bundesliga champion?","Started_time":"2022-09-30","Closed_time":"2023-05-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The Bundesliga is the premier football (soccer) league in Germany (Bundesliga). The final match day of the 2022\/23 Bundesliga season is scheduled for 24 May 2023 (Deutsche Fussball Liga). The question would close on the official announcement that the season has been cancelled or postponed beyond 31 December 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Bayern Munich":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Borussia Dortmund":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"},"Freiburg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Hoffenheim":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"RB Leipzig":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Union Berlin":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"There will be no 2022-23 Bundesliga champion in 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Bayern Munich","Borussia Dortmund","Freiburg","Hoffenheim","RB Leipzig","Union Berlin","Another team","There will be no 2022-23 Bundesliga champion in 2023"],"target":"Bayern Munich"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate on 26 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-29","Closed_time":"2023-05-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The euro has gained value versus the US dollar in 2023 (CNBC, Exchange Rates). The question will be suspended on 25 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 1.02":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.02 and 1.05, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 1.05 but lower than 1.08":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"Between 1.08 and 1.11, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Higher than 1.11 but lower than 1.14":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"1.14 or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 1.02","Between 1.02 and 1.05, inclusive","Higher than 1.05 but lower than 1.08","Between 1.08 and 1.11, inclusive","Higher than 1.11 but lower than 1.14","1.14 or higher"],"target":"Higher than 1.05 but lower than 1.08"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 26 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-15","Closed_time":"2023-05-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2023 portend potential volatility and downside risks, which are complicated by troubles at US banks (Yahoo Finance, US News & World Report, Market Watch\u00a0AP). The question will be suspended on 25 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3,100":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,100 and 3,400, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,400 but less than 3,700":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,700 and 4,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"More than 4,000 but less than 4,300":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Between 4,300 and 4,600, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 4,600 but less than 4,900":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4,900 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3,100","Between 3,100 and 3,400, inclusive","More than 3,400 but less than 3,700","Between 3,700 and 4,000, inclusive","More than 4,000 but less than 4,300","Between 4,300 and 4,600, inclusive","More than 4,600 but less than 4,900","4,900 or more"],"target":"More than 4,000 but less than 4,300"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 24 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2023-03-22","Closed_time":"2023-05-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 23 May 2023 and the outcome determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 15 March 2023, Biden's approval rating was 43.7%. The data for 24 May 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 26 May 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 39.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 39.0% and 42.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"Higher than 42.0% but lower than 45.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"Between 45.0% and 48.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher than 48.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Lower than 39.0%","Between 39.0% and 42.0%, inclusive","Higher than 42.0% but lower than 45.0%","Between 45.0% and 48.0%, inclusive","Higher than 48.0%"],"target":"Between 39.0% and 42.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual percentage change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in April 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-28","Closed_time":"2023-05-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"While inflation has cooled, the Federal Reserve has indicated that more progress is needed before it can stop tightening monetary policy (i.e., raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet) (Federal Reserve, NASDAQ). The question will be suspended on 25 May 2023 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, click \"Edit Graph\" and change \"Units\" to \"Percent Change from Year Ago\"). As of the launch of this question, the annual percentage change in the PCE Price Index was 5.00175 in February 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.0% and 3.4%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Higher by more than 3.4% but less than 3.8%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Between 3.8% and 4.2%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"More than 4.2%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.0%","Between 3.0% and 3.4%, inclusive","Higher by more than 3.4% but less than 3.8%","Between 3.8% and 4.2%, inclusive","More than 4.2%"],"target":"More than 4.2%"}
{"Question":"Will Fitch, Moody's, and\/or S&P downgrade their long-term credit ratings or outlooks for the United States in 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-13","Closed_time":"2023-05-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"With a political fight looming over the US debt ceiling, there are concerns that US credit ratings could be downgraded (The Hill, AP). Fitch, Moody's, and S&P are the \"Big Three\" global credit rating agencies, which assign ratings on a borrower's likelihood of repaying its debts (Investopedia - Credit Rating). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics). A downgrade to the outlook or a negative watch would count (Investopedia - Negative Watch).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26.08%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73.92%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will Florida Governor Ron DeSantis register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024?","Started_time":"2022-12-23","Closed_time":"2023-05-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There is broad speculation that Governor DeSantis will run for president in 2024 (NPR, Politico, BBC). Persons running for federal office in the US must register with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) upon raising or spending more than $5,000 in contributions or expenditures (FEC - Registration, FEC - Candidates).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 February 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 1 February 2023 and 30 April 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2023 and 31 July 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Between 1 August 2023 and 31 October 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Not before 1 November 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Before 1 February 2023","Between 1 February 2023 and 30 April 2023","Between 1 May 2023 and 31 July 2023","Between 1 August 2023 and 31 October 2023","Not before 1 November 2023"],"target":"Between 1 May 2023 and 31 July 2023"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 19 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-15","Closed_time":"2023-05-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Sanctions on Russian oil, potential increases in Chinese demand, and OPEC+ policy are all impacting prices in the near and intermediate term (NASDAQ, CNBC, CNN). The question will be suspended on 18 May 2023 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $55.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $55.00 and $70.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than $70.00 but less than $85.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"Between $85.00 and $100.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $100.00 but less than $115.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"$115.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $55.00 per barrel","Between $55.00 and $70.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $70.00 but less than $85.00 per barrel","Between $85.00 and $100.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $100.00 but less than $115.00 per barrel","$115.00 or more"],"target":"More than $70.00 but less than $85.00 per barrel"}
{"Question":"What will be the price of bitcoin on 23 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-15","Closed_time":"2023-05-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 22 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the last price dated 23 May 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, set chart to \"1M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $12,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $12,000 and $16,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $16,000 but less than $20,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $20,000 and $24,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $24,000 but less than $28,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"Between $28,000 and $32,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"More than $32,000 but less than $36,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $36,000 and $40,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $40,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $12,000","Between $12,000 and $16,000, inclusive","More than $16,000 but less than $20,000","Between $20,000 and $24,000, inclusive","More than $24,000 but less than $28,000","Between $28,000 and $32,000, inclusive","More than $32,000 but less than $36,000","Between $36,000 and $40,000, inclusive","More than $40,000"],"target":"More than $24,000 but less than $28,000"}
{"Question":"When will Jair Bolsonaro be criminally indicted in Brazil?","Started_time":"2023-01-20","Closed_time":"2023-05-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro faces criminal investigations for various matters, including riots by Bolsonaro supporters at various government buildings in Bras\u00edlia on 8 January 2023 (US News & World Report, BBC [in Portuguese], NPR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 20 February 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 20 February 2023 and 22 March 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Not before 23 May 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Before 20 February 2023","Between 20 February 2023 and 22 March 2023","Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023","Not before 23 May 2023"],"target":"Not before 23 May 2023"}
{"Question":"Will US venture capital (VC) investment in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology exceed $2 billion in either the fourth quarter of 2022 or first quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-09","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Investments by US venture capital firms in crypto and blockchain technology peaked in the first quarter of 2022 at over $6 billion, but the pace of investment has fallen considerably since (Nonrival, see first chart). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using PitchBook data as reported by Nonrival (PitchBook, Nonrival - Substack).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.96%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.04%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-29","Closed_time":"2023-05-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 18 May 2023 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity\" (FRED). For 24 March 2023, the spread was -0.38%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"-1.00% or lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between -1.00% and -0.75%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"Between -0.50% and -0.25%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"Higher than -0.25% but lower than 0.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 0.00% and 0.25%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 0.25%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["-1.00% or lower","Between -1.00% and -0.75%, inclusive","Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50%","Between -0.50% and -0.25%, inclusive","Higher than -0.25% but lower than 0.00%","Between 0.00% and 0.25%, inclusive","More than 0.25%"],"target":"Higher than -0.75% but lower than -0.50%"}
{"Question":"In Gonzalez v. Google LLC, will the Supreme Court rule that Section 230 does not bar the plaintiff's non-revenue sharing claims against Google?","Started_time":"2023-02-17","Closed_time":"2023-05-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 (Section 230), which was added as part of the Communications Decency Act of 1996, \"provides limited federal immunity to providers and users of interactive computer services\" (Congressional Research Service, Cornell - Section 230). Various parties related to Nohemi Gonzalez, who was killed in the 2015 Paris terrorist attacks, sued Google claiming, among other things, that YouTube enabled terrorists to recruit members and spread propaganda (Oyez). The district court and Ninth Circuit both found that Section 230 barred the claims against Google that were not premised on revenue-sharing exercised by the company (Casetext, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2022 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.40%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.60%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone in April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-04","Closed_time":"2023-05-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Eurozone inflation hit the highest level on record according to preliminary data for October 2022, stoked by energy prices and continued fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Deutsche Welle, Euronews, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the eurozone, as first reported by Eurostat, excluding Flash Estimate data (Eurostat, ECB). Croatia is scheduled to join the Eurozone on 1 January 2023, so the \"GEO\" segment used for resolution will likely be \"Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)\" (ECB). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for \"Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)\" for April 2022 was 7.4%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than 5.0% but less than 7.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"More than 9.0% but less than 11.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 11.0% and 13.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 13.0% but less than 15.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"15.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.0%","Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive","More than 5.0% but less than 7.0%","Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive","More than 9.0% but less than 11.0%","Between 11.0% and 13.0%, inclusive","More than 13.0% but less than 15.0%","15.0% or more"],"target":"Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What percentage of venture capital dollars will go to US startups with female-only founders in 2022, according to Crunchbase?","Started_time":"2021-09-17","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society"],"Description":"Women-led firms have historically seen a small fraction of venture capital funding (Crunchbase, Harvard Business Review). The outcome will be determined using data published by Crunchbase for the US for 2022, expected in 2023. For 2020, the percentage was 2.4%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"Between 2.5% and 2.9%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"More than 2.9% but less than 3.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"3.5% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.5%","Between 2.5% and 2.9%, inclusive","More than 2.9% but less than 3.5%","3.5% or more"],"target":"Less than 2.5%"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for the Emirate of Dubai in April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2023-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Dubai, along with the rest of the world, has had to grapple with inflation (AP). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the Dubai Statistics Center (Dubai Statistics Center - Prices, see \"Annual Percentage Change\" reports). The figure in the PDF file will be used for resolution. In April 2022, annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index was 4.60% (Annual Percentage Change in Consumer Price Index 2022, see \"General Index\" row).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 0.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher by between 0.00% and 3.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Higher by more than 3.00% but less than 6.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64%"},"Higher by between 6.00% and 9.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Higher by more than 9.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 0.00%","Higher by between 0.00% and 3.00%, inclusive","Higher by more than 3.00% but less than 6.00%","Higher by between 6.00% and 9.00%, inclusive","Higher by more than 9.00%"],"target":"Higher by more than 3.00% but less than 6.00%"}
{"Question":"What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?","Started_time":"2023-03-22","Closed_time":"2023-05-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Lower demand due to a slowing economy and the fallout from bank failures are expected to depress gasoline prices in the near term (CNN, WANE). The question will be suspended on 14 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 15 May 2023 (AAA, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $2.70":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.70 and $3.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $3.00 but less than $3.30":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between $3.30 and $3.60, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"More than $3.60 but less than $3.90":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between $3.90 and $4.20, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $4.20 but less than $4.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$4.50 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $2.70","Between $2.70 and $3.00, inclusive","More than $3.00 but less than $3.30","Between $3.30 and $3.60, inclusive","More than $3.60 but less than $3.90","Between $3.90 and $4.20, inclusive","More than $4.20 but less than $4.50","$4.50 or more"],"target":"Between $3.30 and $3.60, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which country will win Eurovision 2023?","Started_time":"2023-04-13","Closed_time":"2023-05-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The Eurovision Song Contest is a popular competition between countries in Europe (and some beyond) that began in 1956 (Eurovision). The Grand Final is scheduled to take place on Saturday 13 May 2023 (Eurovision - Liverpool 2023).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Finland":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Norway":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Sweden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"Ukraine":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"}},"choices":["Finland","Norway","Sweden","Ukraine","Another country"],"target":"Sweden"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the British pound to US dollar exchange rate on 12 May 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-30","Closed_time":"2023-05-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Fears of a UK recession, inflation, and the impact of government fiscal policy has seen the British pound fall to its lowest level versus the US dollar since the UK's decimalization in 1971 (Guardian, CNBC, Historic UK). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 0.90":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 0.90 and 0.95, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 0.95 but lower than 1.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.00 and 1.05, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 1.05 but lower than 1.10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.10 and 1.15, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher than 1.15 but lower than 1.20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"1.20 or higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Lower than 0.90","Between 0.90 and 0.95, inclusive","Higher than 0.95 but lower than 1.00","Between 1.00 and 1.05, inclusive","Higher than 1.05 but lower than 1.10","Between 1.10 and 1.15, inclusive","Higher than 1.15 but lower than 1.20","1.20 or higher"],"target":"1.20 or higher"}
{"Question":"How much will Beyond Meat report in net revenue for its first quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-10","Closed_time":"2023-04-03","Challenges_list":["Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Health"],"Description":"Beyond Meat, a firm that specializes in producing plant-based meat substitutes, has been dealing with various problems, including falling sales (Beyond Meat, CoStar, Axios, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 2 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by Beyond Meat in its first quarter 2023 financials, expected in May 2023 (Beyond Meat - Quarterly Results). For the third quarter of 2022, the company reported total net revenues of $82,500 (thousands), or $82.5 million (Beyond Meat - Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results). The company is scheduled to release earnings for the fourth quarter of 2022 on 23 February 2023 (Global News Wire).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $65 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between $65 million and $75 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"More than $75 million but less than $85 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"Between $85 million and $95 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"More than $95 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Less than $65 million","Between $65 million and $75 million, inclusive","More than $75 million but less than $85 million","Between $85 million and $95 million, inclusive","More than $95 million"],"target":"Between $85 million and $95 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the 3-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-29","Closed_time":"2023-05-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The Federal Reserve is targeting wage inflation as part of its overall attempt to bring price stability (CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Atlanta Fed's \"Wage Growth Tracker\" (Atlanta Fed, with \"Interactive Chart\" selected, click \"Unweighted series, hourly\" under \"3-month moving average,\" then click \"Paid hourly\" in the chart legend). In April 2022, the 3-month moving average for \"Paid hourly\" was 6.5%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5.0% and 5.4%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 5.4% but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"6.0% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"}},"choices":["Less than 5.0%","Between 5.0% and 5.4%, inclusive","More than 5.4% but less than 6.0%","6.0% or more"],"target":"6.0% or more"}
{"Question":"What will be the 12-month moving average of median wage growth for \"Paid hourly\" workers in April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-06-10","Closed_time":"2023-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Increasing labor costs are a big part of the overall inflation story in the US (CNBC, Society for Human Resource Management, Politico). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Atlanta Fed's \"Wage Growth Tracker\" (Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker, with \"Interactive Chart\" selected, click \"Hourly workers\" under \"12-month moving averages (unweighted, hourly)\"). In April 2021, the 12-month moving average for \"Paid hourly\" was 3.4%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 4.0% but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"More than 8.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.0%","Between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive","More than 4.0% but less than 6.0%","Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","More than 8.0%"],"target":"Between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"In National Pork Producers Council v. Ross, will the Supreme Court rule any part of California\u2019s Farm Animal Confinement Initiative (Prop 12) unconstitutional?","Started_time":"2022-09-23","Closed_time":"2023-05-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In 2018, California voters approved Prop 12, which set various standards for the sale of certain animal products in the state (Ballotpedia). The National Pork Producers Council and American Farm Bureau Federation (Council) sued in federal court, claiming Prop 12 violated the dormant Commerce Clause of the constitution (Oyez, Saylor Academy). After losing in both the district court and Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, the Council appealed to the Supreme Court (SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2022 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32.64%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67.36%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2022-23 reach or exceed the total revenue from FY 2018-19 of AED 97,907 million?","Started_time":"2023-02-02","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports"],"Description":"The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, but the Emirates airline has recovered thus far in its current fiscal year (FY) (Emirates Group, Simple Flying). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2022-23, expected in the late spring of 2023 (Emirates Group). Emirate Group's FY 2022-23 runs from 1 April 2022 to 31 March 2023. For FY 2021-22, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 59,180 million (Emirates Group - 2021-22 Annual Report, see \"Revenue and other operating income\" on page 179). \"AED\" are Dirhams, the national currency of the UAE.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.20%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.80%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will Netflix next report more subscribers in a quarter than Disney?","Started_time":"2023-01-23","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Entertainment"],"Description":"The total number of paid subscribers for Disney's family of streaming services exceeded Netflix's total number of paid memberships for the first time in the second quarter of 2022 (Visual Capitalist, Deadline). Netflix's fiscal year aligns with the calendar year, but Disney's fiscal year runs roughly from the beginning of October to the end of September of the following year. For the purposes of this question, we will treat the relevant quarters as covering the same relevant calendar quarters. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Netflix and Disney (Netflix, see \"Letter to Shareholders\" (quarterly), https:\/\/thewaltdisneycompany.com\/investor-relations\/,\u00a0see \"Quarterly Earning Reports\"). For the second quarter of 2022, Netflix reported 220.67 million while Disney reported 221.1 million (Netflix - FY Q2 2022 Letter to Shareholders, sum \"Paid Memberships\" under \"Regional Breakdown,\" or 220.67 million; Disney - FY Q3 2022 Quarterly Earnings Report, sum \"Paid subscribers\" in the first table on page 6, or 221.1 million). Disney's subscriber reporting currently includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ combined. If Disney sells one of those units, then its total would no longer be included. Likewise, any other acquisitions that Disney includes in its consumer streaming reporting would be included.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"First quarter of 2023 or before":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Second quarter of 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Third quarter of 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Fourth quarter of 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Not before 2024":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"}},"choices":["First quarter of 2023 or before","Second quarter of 2023","Third quarter of 2023","Fourth quarter of 2023","Not before 2024"],"target":"First quarter of 2023 or before"}
{"Question":"What will happen next with regard to California Senator Dianne Feinstein?","Started_time":"2023-04-28","Closed_time":"2023-05-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"Senator Feinstein has been away from the Senate since February 2023 while recovering from shingles, which has held up Judiciary Committee action to confirm federal judges (ABC News, CNN, The Hill). A committee vote would count only if cast while present in the District of Columbia.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"She will cast a vote in the US Senate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"She will cease to be a US Senator":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Neither will occur before 24 June 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["She will cast a vote in the US Senate","She will cease to be a US Senator","Neither will occur before 24 June 2023"],"target":"She will cast a vote in the US Senate"}
{"Question":"Will the unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) value for coffee in April 2023 be higher than it was in February 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-08","Closed_time":"2023-05-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 9 May 2023 and the outcome determined using data for February 2023 and April 2023 as reported when April 2023 data are first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), expected in May 2023 (BLS). To retrieve the data via the BLS CPI page, click \"One Screen\" for \"All Urban Consumers (Current Series).\" In the new window that opens, select \"U.S. city average\" under \"Select an Area,\" select \"Coffee\" under \"Select one or more Items,\" and leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" selected under \"Select Seasonal Adjustment.\" As of 6 March 2023, the unadjusted CPI value for coffee in April 2022 was 222.449.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72.54%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27.46%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Prince Harry and\/or Meghan Markle attend King Charles III's coronation in Westminster Abbey?","Started_time":"2023-04-07","Closed_time":"2023-05-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"There is wide speculation on whether Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex, and his wife Meghan Markle, will attend his father's coronation (E! Online, InStyle). Prince Harry and\/or Meghan Markle must be physically present in Westminster Abbey at the same time as King Charles III to count. The coronation is scheduled to take place on 6 May 2023 (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Prince Harry":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Yes, only Meghan Markle":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Yes, both Prince Harry and Meghan Markle":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Prince Harry","Yes, only Meghan Markle","Yes, both Prince Harry and Meghan Markle","No"],"target":"Yes, only Prince Harry"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate on 5 May 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-30","Closed_time":"2023-05-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Indicators","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Amid the continuing war in Ukraine, concerns about energy supplies in Europe, and other factors, the euro saw 20-year lows versus the dollar in September 2022 (The National, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 0.85":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 0.85 and 0.90, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 0.90 but lower than 0.95":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 1.00 but lower than 1.05":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.05 and 1.10, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"},"1.15 or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 0.85","Between 0.85 and 0.90, inclusive","Higher than 0.90 but lower than 0.95","Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive","Higher than 1.00 but lower than 1.05","Between 1.05 and 1.10, inclusive","Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15","1.15 or higher"],"target":"Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15"}
{"Question":"Will Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) sign a bilateral defense treaty before 6 May 2023?","Started_time":"2022-05-06","Closed_time":"2023-05-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After China and the Solomon Islands signed a security agreement in April 2022, Australia and other countries are rushing to secure closer relations with other Oceania countries (Guardian, BBC, CBS News). Australia and PNG have been discussing the development of a bilateral security treaty for years (Australia Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade - CSEP 2020, Australia Dept. of Foreign Affairs and Trade - 28th Papua New Guinea-Australia Ministerial Forum Joint Communiqu\u00e9 2021). Ratification by the parties to the treaty would not be required for a \"Yes\" resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) announce the end of the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) related to COVID-19?","Started_time":"2022-09-30","Closed_time":"2023-05-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","US Politics","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"With the rise of vaccines and treatments along with moderated cases and deaths from COVID-19, there is speculation as to when WHO will declare an end to the PHEIC (Science.org, STAT, WHO - 30 January 2020). The question would close as of the effective date of the end of the PHEIC (e.g., WHO - 29 March 2016, Ebola PHEIC \"termination\" in 2016).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 1 April 2023 and 30 June 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Not before 1 July 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2023","Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023","Between 1 April 2023 and 30 June 2023","Not before 1 July 2023"],"target":"Between 1 April 2023 and 30 June 2023"}
{"Question":"What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 4 May 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-04","Closed_time":"2023-05-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"In October 2022, rates for 30-year mortgages climbed above 7.00% for the first time since 2002, pushed by higher interest rates out of the Federal Reserve (AP, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 3 November 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 6.95%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 4.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4.00% and 5.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 5.00% but lower than 6.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 6.00% and 7.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"Higher than 7.00% but lower than 8.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 8.00% and 9.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 9.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 4.00%","Between 4.00% and 5.00%, inclusive","Higher than 5.00% but lower than 6.00%","Between 6.00% and 7.00%, inclusive","Higher than 7.00% but lower than 8.00%","Between 8.00% and 9.00%, inclusive","More than 9.00%"],"target":"Between 6.00% and 7.00%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"In the current conflict in Ukraine, will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before 5 May 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-04","Closed_time":"2023-05-05","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"While various parties have called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the fighting continues (Al Arabiya, Daily Beast,  Parley Policy Initiative). An announced ceasefire must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count, and must include the whole of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, \"Ukraine\" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the announced ceasefire to count. The date a ceasefire would take effect is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.81%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.19%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-22","Closed_time":"2023-05-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"With higher interest rates and troubles in the banking industry, there are concerns that the US labor market will suffer (CNBC, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 4 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected on 5 May 2023 (BLS).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Between 3.5% and 3.7%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"More than 3.7% but less than 4.1%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Between 4.1% and 4.3%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 4.3%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.5%","Between 3.5% and 3.7%, inclusive","More than 3.7% but less than 4.1%","Between 4.1% and 4.3%, inclusive","More than 4.3%"],"target":"Less than 3.5%"}
{"Question":"Which team will be at the top of the English Premier League as of the end of 6 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-22","Closed_time":"2023-05-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The Premier League is the highest level of professional soccer (football) in England and Wales (Premier League, Premier League - Tables (Standings)). Any games postponed to after 6 May 2023 would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Arsenal":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Manchester City":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"Manchester United":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Tottenham Hotspur":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Arsenal","Manchester City","Manchester United","Tottenham Hotspur","Another team"],"target":"Manchester City"}
{"Question":"Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce a change to the \"Fixed rate\" for its \"Main refinance operations\" interest rate at its next scheduled monetary policy meeting?","Started_time":"2023-03-29","Closed_time":"2023-05-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"At its March 2023 meeting, the ECB raised interest rates for the eurozone in its fight against inflation, despite banking sector turmoil (US News & World Report, CNN, ECB - Key ECB interest rates). The Governing Council of the ECB is scheduled to have its next monetary policy meeting on 4 May 2023 (ECB - Meeting Schedule). The date the change would take effect is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, a decrease":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Yes, an increase greater than 0.00% but less than or equal to 0.25%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Yes, an increase greater than 0.25% but less than or equal to 0.50%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Yes, an increase greater than 0.50%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Yes, a decrease","No","Yes, an increase greater than 0.00% but less than or equal to 0.25%","Yes, an increase greater than 0.25% but less than or equal to 0.50%","Yes, an increase greater than 0.50%"],"target":"Yes, an increase greater than 0.00% but less than or equal to 0.25%"}
{"Question":"How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?","Started_time":"2023-03-29","Closed_time":"2023-05-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Electric vehicles are penetrating the UK motor vehicle market, though gasoline (petrol) vehicle sales have jumped in 2023 (CleanTechnia). The question will be suspended on 3 May 2023 and the outcome determined using the \"April\" data table from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in May 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month (SMMT - Car Registrations, SMMT). In April 2022, 12,899 new BEVs were registered in the UK (SMMT - News 5 May 2022).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 10,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than 15,000 but fewer than 20,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"Between 20,000 and 25,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"More than 25,000 but fewer than 30,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"30,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 10,000","Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive","More than 15,000 but fewer than 20,000","Between 20,000 and 25,000, inclusive","More than 25,000 but fewer than 30,000","30,000 or more"],"target":"Between 20,000 and 25,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 3 May 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 22 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-16","Closed_time":"2023-05-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 2-3 May 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 1 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2023-01-27","Closed_time":"2023-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 21 January 2023, Biden's approval rating was 42.2%. The data for 1 May 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 May 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 38.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 38.0%","Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive","Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%","Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive","Higher than 50.0%"],"target":"Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%"}
{"Question":"Will real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 be higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2022?","Started_time":"2023-03-22","Closed_time":"2023-04-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The EU was already facing a bevy of challenges to its economic health in the near term before bank failures in the US and collapse of Credit Suisse (Politico, Anadolu Agency). The question will be suspended on 27 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data from Eurostat for real GDP as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) upon the release of the preliminary flash estimate for the first quarter of 2023, called the \"Preliminary Flash Estimate GDP - EU and euro area, Q1\/2023,\" expected on 28 April 2023 (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78.29%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21.71%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the combined daily Android users of Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat exceed 1.74 billion in February 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-09","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society"],"Description":"October 2022 saw the third consecutive month of declines in Android device users on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Snapchat (Nonrival, see first chart). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using SimilarWeb data as reported by Nonrival (Similarweb, Nonrival - Substack).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52.23%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47.77%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many nonfarm job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for March 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-03","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Despite rising interest rates and recession fears, US job openings in December 2022 rose to over 11 million (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using March 2023 BLS data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED), expected in May 2023 (FRED). As of 1 February 2023, the number of nonfarm job openings reported for March 2022 was 11,855 thousand, or 11.855 million.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 9.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 9.0 million and 9.6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 9.6 million but fewer than 10.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 10.2 million and 10.8 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"More than 10.8 million but fewer than 11.4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"Between 11.4 million and 12.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"More than 12.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 9.0 million","Between 9.0 million and 9.6 million, inclusive","More than 9.6 million but fewer than 10.2 million","Between 10.2 million and 10.8 million, inclusive","More than 10.8 million but fewer than 11.4 million","Between 11.4 million and 12.0 million, inclusive","More than 12.0 million"],"target":"Between 9.0 million and 9.6 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many job layoffs and discharges in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for the first quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-21","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"US job openings fell in August 2022 at the fastest pace since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, raising concerns that the US labor market may be deteriorating (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined by summing BLS data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) for January 2023, February 2023, and March 2023 as reported when data for March 2023 are first released, expected around early May 2023 (FRED). As of 20 October 2022, the job layoffs and discharges reported for the first quarter of 2022 totaled 4,173 (in thousands).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 4 million and 5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54%"},"More than 5 million but fewer than 6 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"8 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 4 million","Between 4 million and 5 million, inclusive","More than 5 million but fewer than 6 million","Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive","More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million","8 million or more"],"target":"More than 5 million but fewer than 6 million"}
{"Question":"Will the Chinese government publicly announce that it has approved the use of a foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for use among its citizens in the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2 May 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-02","Closed_time":"2023-05-02","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"While China in November 2022 agreed to allow German expatriates in the country to receive Pfizer\/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines, China has yet to approve more effective foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for use among Chinese citizens (Economist, Politico, NPR, ABC News, Track Vaccines, JHU Bloomberg School of Public Health). An approval does not need to include every Chinese citizen to count, but approvals for research and\/or trials alone would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.36%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.64%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-08","Closed_time":"2023-04-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (Fannie Mae, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 26 April 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2023 (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 1.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Higher by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"Higher by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Higher by 4.5% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 1.5%","Lower by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive","Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%","Higher by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5%","Higher by 4.5% or more"],"target":"Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%"}
{"Question":"What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical instability are all headwinds for the US economy going into 2023 (US News & World Report, CNN). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED), expected in April 2023 (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"Higher by 3.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 3.0%","Lower by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive","Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%","Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive","Higher by more than 1.5% but less than 3.0%","Higher by 3.0% or more"],"target":"Higher by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will President Joe Biden register with the FEC to run for US president in 2024 before 1 May 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-01","Closed_time":"2023-04-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Biden is expected to formally announce in early 2023 that he will run for reelection in 2024, though voter enthusiasm was low in January 2023 and his approval rating has been under 50% for much of his first term (The Hill, US News & World Report, NBC News, FiveThirtyEight). President Biden filed his original Statement of Candidacy for the 2020 presidential election on 25 April 2019 (FEC - Biden Filings, Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88.12%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11.88%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will postponed local elections be held in North Kosovo before 1 May 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-16","Closed_time":"2023-04-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 10 December 2022, Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani announced that local elections in northern Serb-majority areas would be postponed to 23 April 2023, due to violence and tensions in the area (Deutsche Welle, BBC [in Serbian]. Elections held in any of the following municipalities would count: Northern Mitrovica (Severna Mitrovica), Zubin Potok, Zvecan, and\/or Leposavic. The local elections must be recognized by the government in Pristina to count. The question would close early upon the official announcement that the elections have been canceled or postponed to a date after 30 April 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87.21%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12.79%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Turkish lira exchange rate on 21 April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-21","Closed_time":"2023-04-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The lira has fallen to record lows against the dollar in 2022 as Turkey fights inflation with by unorthodox means (CNBC, EuroNews, Daily Sabah). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 15.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15.00 and 17.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 17.00 but lower than 19.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 19.00 and 21.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"Higher than 21.00 but lower than 23.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between 23.00 and 25.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher than 25.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 15.00","Between 15.00 and 17.00, inclusive","Higher than 17.00 but lower than 19.00","Between 19.00 and 21.00, inclusive","Higher than 21.00 but lower than 23.00","Between 23.00 and 25.00, inclusive","Higher than 25.00"],"target":"Between 19.00 and 21.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many quarters of negative real GDP growth will the European Union (EU) experience in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-25","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"With high inflation and the wake of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, fears are growing that the EU could enter a recession this year (CNN, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data from Eurostat for \"GDP and main components (output, expenditure and income)\" specifically for \"European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)\" as reported upon the release of the final estimates for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in March 2023 (Eurostat, Eurostat - Release Calendar). Set the \"Seasonal adjustment\" to \"Seasonally and calendar adjusted data\" and \"Unit of measure\" to \"Chain linked volumes (2010), million euro.\" Values for each 2022 quarter that are lower than the value the preceding quarter will be considered to have been a quarter of negative real GDP growth. The final estimate for GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021, as of the launch of this question, was EUR 3,167,670.0 million, up 0.4% from the previous quarter (Eurostat - GDP main aggregates and employment estimates for the fourth quarter of 2021, see Page 10 table titled \"GDP AND EXPENDITURE COMPONENTS\" for \"t\/t-1\" and \"EU\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Zero":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"One":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"Two":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Three or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Zero","One","Two","Three or more"],"target":"One"}
{"Question":"What will be the percentage change in real German GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021?","Started_time":"2022-07-22","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine has taken a toll on the German economy that is expected to continue (Politico, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using Eurostat data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED). The real GDP figure for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be divided by the same figure for the fourth quarter of 2021 as first reported in 2023. As of 20 July 2022, Germany's real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 was reported as 740,245.3 million euros.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by 4.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Lower by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 2.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Higher by more than 2.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Lower by 4.0% or more","Lower by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive","Lower by more than 0.0% but less than 2.0%","Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 2.0%"],"target":"Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 11 April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-02","Closed_time":"2023-04-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","US Politics","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Sanctions on Russian oil, demand concerns for China, and OPEC+ policy are all impacting prices in the near and intermediate term (CNBC, US News & World Report, CNN). The question will be suspended on 10 April 2023 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $40.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $40.00 and $50.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $50.00 but less than $60.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between $60.00 and $70.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than $70.00 but less than $80.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Between $80.00 and $90.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"More than $90.00 but less than $100.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Between $100.00 and $110.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $110.00 but less than $120.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"$120.00 or more per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $40.00 per barrel","Between $40.00 and $50.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $50.00 but less than $60.00 per barrel","Between $60.00 and $70.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $70.00 but less than $80.00 per barrel","Between $80.00 and $90.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $90.00 but less than $100.00 per barrel","Between $100.00 and $110.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $110.00 but less than $120.00 per barrel","$120.00 or more per barrel"],"target":"Between $80.00 and $90.00 per barrel, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the jury in US Dominion's (Dominion's) civil trial against Fox News Network (Fox News) find Fox News liable for defamation and nonpunitive damages?","Started_time":"2023-04-07","Closed_time":"2023-04-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Dominion has sued Fox News for defamation over what it calls false reporting on claims that Dominion was part of a conspiracy to tamper with 2020 US presidential election results, and the trial is scheduled to begin 17 April 2023 (The Hill, Delaware Courts - Motions for Summary Judgment 31 March 2023). Dominion Voting Systems, Inc. and Dominion Voting Systems Corporation are both subsidiaries of US Dominion and are considered part of US Dominion for the purposes of this question (Casetext). \"Nonpunitive damages\" are any damages that are not punitive, and awards of interest, expenses, costs, and attorneys' fees would not count (O\u2019Dwyer & Bernstien). If the case is resolved before a jury finds for damages (e.g., a settlement) or a mistrial is declared, the question would close \"No.\" If the trial is still underway as of 31 May 2023, the suspend date will be extended accordingly.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages in the amount of less than $1 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages between $1 million and $100 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages greater than $100 million but less than $1 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages of $1 billion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"}},"choices":["Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages in the amount of less than $1 million","Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages between $1 million and $100 million, inclusive","Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages greater than $100 million but less than $1 billion","Yes, finding for nonpunitive damages of $1 billion or more","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many subscribers will Netflix report for the first quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-08","Closed_time":"2023-04-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Entertainment"],"Description":"As the fight for streaming subscribers continues, Netflix is cracking down on \"password sharing\" while cutting prices in some countries (Yahoo Finance, BBC). The question will be suspended on 16 April 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Netflix (Netflix - Quarterly Earnings). For the first quarter of 2022, Netflix reported 221.64 million (First Quarter 2022 Shareholder Newsletter, see \u201cGlobal Streaming Paid Memberships\u201d on the first page).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 227.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 227.5 million and 230.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"More than 230.0 million but fewer than 232.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Between 232.5 million and 235.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"More than 235.0 million but fewer than 237.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Between 237.5 million and 240.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 240.0 million but fewer than 242.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"242.5 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 227.5 million","Between 227.5 million and 230.0 million, inclusive","More than 230.0 million but fewer than 232.5 million","Between 232.5 million and 235.0 million, inclusive","More than 235.0 million but fewer than 237.5 million","Between 237.5 million and 240.0 million, inclusive","More than 240.0 million but fewer than 242.5 million","242.5 million or more"],"target":"Between 232.5 million and 235.0 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will eight or more Slovak MiG-29 fighter jets be transferred to Ukraine before 1 September 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-08","Closed_time":"2023-04-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Ukraine pleads for hesitant Western nations to give it fighter jets, Slovakia has offered to provide Ukraine with ten of its MiG-29 fighter jets (Deutsche Welle, AP, Euromaidan Press). Jets would be considered transferred to Ukraine upon being physically relocated to Ukrainian territory. Overflights of Ukraine by the aircraft under Slovak or NATO command would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2023-03-08","Closed_time":"2023-04-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"As China emerges from its \"zero COVID\" policy while dealing with a distressed property market, the prospects of new economic growth are in focus (CNBC, CNN). The question will be suspended on 16 April 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in April 2023 (Trading Economics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 0.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Higher by more than 2.0% but less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Higher by between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Higher by more than 6.0% but less than 8.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Higher by 8.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 0.0%","Higher by between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 2.0% but less than 4.0%","Higher by between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 6.0% but less than 8.0%","Higher by 8.0% or more"],"target":"Higher by between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-02","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As China deals with new COVID outbreaks, protests against \"zero COVID\" & other issues, and a distressed property market, economic growth expectations have fallen (Yahoo Finance, CNN, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in April 2023 (Trading Economics).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 1.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Lower by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Higher by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Higher by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"},"Higher by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Higher by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Higher by 7.5% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 1.5%","Lower by between 0.0% and 1.5%, inclusive","Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 1.5%","Higher by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5%","Higher by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5%","Higher by 7.5% or more"],"target":"Higher by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-08-26","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"As China continues to deal with COVID outbreaks and a distressed property market, its economic growth has slowed (CNBC, Al Jazeera, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in April 2023 (Trading Economics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 0.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"More than 2.0% but less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"More than 6.0% but less than 8.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"8.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 0.0%","Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive","More than 2.0% but less than 4.0%","Between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","More than 6.0% but less than 8.0%","8.0% or more"],"target":"Between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 16 April 2023, will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Omicron represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2023-04-14","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and its lineages have been the dominant in the US since overtaking Delta in December 2021, though concerns remain over the emergence of a new variant as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere (US News & World Report, STAT, Deseret News). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 October 2022, Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see \"%Total\"). The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached\u2014and weeks including \"Nowcast\" estimates (i.e., columns with \"NOWCAST\" at the top) would count\u2014or else the week ending 15 April 2023. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.40%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.60%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 15 April 2023, will Ebrahim Raisi flee Iran or cease to be its president?","Started_time":"2022-10-14","Closed_time":"2023-04-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Anti-government protests have grown throughout Iran in the wake of Mahsa Amini's death while in custody (US News & World Report, Time, CNBC). Whether or not Raisi has fled Iran will be determined using credible open source media reporting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and Ebrahim Raisi will become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 without fleeing":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Yes, but Ebrahim Raisi will not become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 and\/or will have fled":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"}},"choices":["Yes, and Ebrahim Raisi will become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 without fleeing","Yes, but Ebrahim Raisi will not become the supreme leader of Iran before 15 April 2023 and\/or will have fled","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will US federal legislation imposing new reporting requirements on stablecoin issuers become law?","Started_time":"2022-11-11","Closed_time":"2023-04-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The Stablecoin Transparency Act was introduced in the US Senate in March 2022 and has gained new interest in the wake of cryptocurrency volatility (S.3970 - Stablecoin Transparency Act, CoinDesk, Forkast). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 3 January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3 January 2023 and 14 April 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 15 April 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 3 January 2023","Between 3 January 2023 and 14 April 2023","Not before 15 April 2023"],"target":"Not before 15 April 2023"}
{"Question":"Before 15 April 2023, will Ali Khamenei either flee Iran or cease to be its supreme leader?","Started_time":"2022-10-14","Closed_time":"2023-04-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Anti-government protests have grown throughout Iran in the wake of Mahsa Amini's death while in custody (US News & World Report, Time, CNBC). Whether or not Khamenei has fled Iran will be determined using credible open source media reporting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.24%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.76%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Chinese renminbi (aka yuan) exchange rate on 14 April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-30","Closed_time":"2023-04-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Like many other currencies, the Chinese renminbi has fallen versus the US dollar in 2022 (BBC, Yahoo Finance). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 6.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.00 and 6.25, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 6.25 but lower than 6.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.50 and 6.75, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Higher than 6.75 but lower than 7.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Between 7.00 and 7.25, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher than 7.25":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 6.00","Between 6.00 and 6.25, inclusive","Higher than 6.25 but lower than 6.50","Between 6.50 and 6.75, inclusive","Higher than 6.75 but lower than 7.00","Between 7.00 and 7.25, inclusive","Higher than 7.25"],"target":"Higher than 6.75 but lower than 7.00"}
{"Question":"Will British Columbia have more than 2,100 workplace COVID-19 claims registered for any month between December 2022 and March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-09","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Workers\u2019 Compensation Board of British Columbia (WorkSafeBC, see \"Monthly COVID-19 claims registered\"). In December 2021, 213 COVID-19 claims were registered. Monthly highs for 2022 include 2,284 in January and 2,103 in February.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be total OPEC crude oil production for March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-14","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","US Politics","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"OPEC and its partners announced at its 5 October 2022 ministerial meeting that it would cut 2 million barrels per day of oil production, much to the disappointment of the Biden administration (OPEC - 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, The Hill, NPR, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" as first reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb\/d\" table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report). The September 2022 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 29,651 thousand barrels per day (tb\/d) in August 2022 (OPEC - September 2022 Monthly Oil Market Report, see Table 5 - 7 on page 50 in the document).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 26,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 26,000 tb\/d and 27,000 tb\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 27,000 tb\/d but fewer than 28,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 28,000 tb\/d and 29,000 tb\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"More than 29,000 tb\/d but fewer than 30,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"30,000 tb\/d or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 26,000 tb\/d","Between 26,000 tb\/d and 27,000 tb\/d, inclusive","More than 27,000 tb\/d but fewer than 28,000 tb\/d","Between 28,000 tb\/d and 29,000 tb\/d, inclusive","More than 29,000 tb\/d but fewer than 30,000 tb\/d","30,000 tb\/d or more"],"target":"Between 28,000 tb\/d and 29,000 tb\/d, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-02","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"Inflation in the US is expected to slow in 2023 versus 2022 (The Hill, US News & World Report, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for March 2023 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for \"All items,\" expected in April 2023 (BLS). For March 2022, the change was 8.5%.This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Up by less than 1.5% or down":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Up by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Up by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Up by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Up by 7.5% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Up by less than 1.5% or down","Up by between 1.5% and 3.0%, inclusive","Up by more than 3.0% but less than 4.5%","Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive","Up by more than 6.0% but less than 7.5%","Up by 7.5% or more"],"target":"Up by between 4.5% and 6.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the percentage change in Russia\u2019s GDP in 2022 relative to its GDP in 2021, according to the IMF?","Started_time":"2022-03-11","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In response to Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, numerous countries have imposed sanctions on Russia and numerous companies have suspended operations in or pulled out of Russia (CNN, Fortune). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data, from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2023, which is expected in April 2023. At the IMF website (IMF), choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Countries\u201d file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, constant prices\" and Units as \"Percent change.\" Russia\u2019s GDP percentage change in constant prices for 2021 was estimated to be 4.690% according to the October 2021 report (World Economic Outlook - October 2021).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by 20.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Lower by more than 16.0% but less than 20.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Lower by between 12.0% and 16.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Lower by more than 8.0% but less than 12.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Lower by between 4.0% and 8.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Higher, or lower by less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"}},"choices":["Lower by 20.0% or more","Lower by more than 16.0% but less than 20.0%","Lower by between 12.0% and 16.0%, inclusive","Lower by more than 8.0% but less than 12.0%","Lower by between 4.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","Higher, or lower by less than 4.0%"],"target":"Higher, or lower by less than 4.0%"}
{"Question":"Will the IMF raise its estimate of the world's real GDP percentage change in 2022 relative to 2021 in its first 2023 World Economic Outlook?","Started_time":"2022-11-18","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Inflation, war, and other factors continue to be a drag on world economic growth (Economist, IMF World Economic Outlook October 2022). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using IMF world GDP percent change data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2023, which is expected in April 2023, and comparing it to the October 2022 World Economic Outlook world GDP percentage change. At the IMF website (IMF - World Economic Outlooks), choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, constant prices\" and Units as \"Percent change.\" World GDP percentage change in constant prices for 2022 was estimated to be 3.192% according to the October 2022 report (IMF - World Economic Outlook Database October 2022). The data may also be seen using the IMF's reporting tool here: (IMF).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41.62%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58.38%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-14","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Wharton Future of Work Conference"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to fight inflation, there are concerns that the US labor market will suffer (USA Today, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected on 7 April 2023 (BLS).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 3.5% and 3.9%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"More than 3.9% but less than 4.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Between 4.5% and 4.9%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 4.9% but less than 5.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5.5% and 5.9%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 5.9%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.5%","Between 3.5% and 3.9%, inclusive","More than 3.9% but less than 4.5%","Between 4.5% and 4.9%, inclusive","More than 4.9% but less than 5.5%","Between 5.5% and 5.9%, inclusive","Higher than 5.9%"],"target":"Between 3.5% and 3.9%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will territory in any Ukrainian oblast that borders Belarus cease to be under Ukrainian control before 7 April 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?","Started_time":"2023-01-13","Closed_time":"2023-04-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Fears are growing that Russia may again invade the north of Ukraine (Atlantic Council, Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty, Guardian). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The Ukrainian oblasts that border Belarus are Chernihiv, Kyiv, Rivne, Volyn, and Zhytomyr, which you can identify by zooming in on the ISW map application. For the purposes of this question, \"Claimed Russian Control\" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but \"Assessed Russian Advance\" and \"Assessed Russian Control\" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.93%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.07%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-07","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"Experts expect a new wave of COVID-19 infections in the winter of 2022-23 (US News & World Report, Nature). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC through and including 31 March 2023 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 April 2023 (CDC COVID Data Tracker, click \"Data Table for Daily Death Trends - The United States\" under the chart, which includes a Download Data option). As of 6 October 2022, the CDC reported a total of 270,334 deaths attributed to COVID-19 between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 50,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than 100,000 but fewer than 150,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"350,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 50,000","Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive","More than 100,000 but fewer than 150,000","Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive","More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000","Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive","More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000","350,000 or more"],"target":"Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 7 April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-07","Closed_time":"2023-04-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Ukraine of provocations due to the latter's deployment of troops to the border (US News & World Report). While Russia staged its invasion of Ukraine in part from Belarus, Lukashenko insists that its armed forces have not engaged in armed fighting (BELTA). For the purposes of this question, \"Ukraine\" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement\/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.01%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.99%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Paul Vallas win Chicago's 2023 mayoral election runoff?","Started_time":"2023-03-03","Closed_time":"2023-04-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Mayor Lori Lightfoot failed to reach the top two in Chicago's general election on 28 February 2023, leaving Chicago voters with the choice between Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson for the office (NBC Chicago, NBC News). The runoff election is scheduled for 4 April 2023 (Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.63%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34.37%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2022, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?","Started_time":"2021-10-01","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"While DBX was ranked 1st for number of international passengers in 2020 as it was in 2019, the airport fell out of the top 10 based on the overall number of passengers (ACI - 2020 Preliminary Rankings). The outcome will be determined using the first available ACI data for busiest airports rankings by passenger number in 2022, expected to be released in 2023 (ACI).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"1st to 3rd":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"4th to 6th":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"7th to 9th":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"10th or lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"}},"choices":["1st to 3rd","4th to 6th","7th to 9th","10th or lower"],"target":"4th to 6th"}
{"Question":"What percentage of Canadians will report having ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video, according to the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2022-09-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"Canada Health Infoway conducts the annual Canadian Digital Health Survey to track various metrics and solicit feedback from Canadians (Infoway - Digital Health Survey). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using the results of the 2022 Canadian Digital Health Survey, expected to be made in the summer of 2022 and released later, as displayed on the infographics. In 2021, the percentage of survey respondents (Canadians over the age of 16) who reported that they had ever visited their health care provider virtually online by video was 17% (Infoway - Virtual Visits, see \"Use of Virtual Visits (VIDEO)\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 17%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 17% and 20%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"More than 20% but less than 25%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"25% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Less than 17%","Between 17% and 20%, inclusive","More than 20% but less than 25%","25% or more"],"target":"Between 17% and 20%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many job \"quits\" in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for February 2023?","Started_time":"2022-04-06","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Wharton Future of Work Conference"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Labor shortages in the US continue, exacerbated by high levels of Americans quitting their jobs, a phenomenon called \"The Great Resignation\" (CNBC, CBS News). Per the BLS, \"Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee.\" The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for February 2023, expected in March or April 2023 (BLS - JOLTS Release Calendar). For February 2022, the preliminary number of job quits was 4,352,000 (BLS - February 2022 JOLTS Release, see \"Total\" in Table 4). For historical data, visit: https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/jlt\/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Total nonfarm.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Quits.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and\/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data\" (note that pop-up blockers may obstruct proper functioning). As of launch, the average monthly number of quits in 2019 was 3,517,000.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 3.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 3.0 million and 3.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"More than 3.5 million but fewer than 4.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"Between 4.0 million and 4.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"More than 4.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 3.0 million","Between 3.0 million and 3.5 million, inclusive","More than 3.5 million but fewer than 4.0 million","Between 4.0 million and 4.5 million, inclusive","More than 4.5 million"],"target":"Between 4.0 million and 4.5 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the percentage change in Qatar's real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"As host of the World Cup in the fourth quarter of 2022, Qatar is expected to see a positive effect on its GDP (Zawya, Wilson Center). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using constant prices data as first reported by the Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) of Qatar in its Quarterly National Accounts Bulletin for the fourth quarter of 2022 (Qatar Planning and Statistics Authority - National Accounts). In its Quarterly National Accounts Bulletin for the fourth quarter of 2021, the percentage change in Qatar's real GDP was 2.0% (Qatari National Accounts 4th Quarter 2021, see \"Estimates of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product by Economic Activities at Constant Prices (2018=100), Q4, 2021\" under \"Y-o-Y\" on page 10 in the file. Please note that there may be discrepancies between the title of a link to a report and the title in the report file itself. The report files themselves will be used.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Higher by less than 2.0% or lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Higher by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52%"},"Higher by between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Higher by more than 8.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"}},"choices":["Higher by less than 2.0% or lower","Higher by between 2.0% and 4.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 4.0% but less than 6.0%","Higher by between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 8.0%"],"target":"Higher by between 6.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 April 2023, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?","Started_time":"2022-08-12","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As the war in Ukraine continues, fears remain that Russia may use chemical or biological weapons (Atlantic Council, Bloomberg, Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich) (Daily Mail, BBC). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine would be immaterial. An accusation must assert that Russia used a weapon that was itself a chemical or biological weapon, but an accusation of the use of white phosphorus alone would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.23%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.77%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first quarter of 2023?","Started_time":"2022-12-30","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The airline industry is striving to return to pre-COVID levels of air traffic in 2023 (Visual Capitalist, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (TSA). Totals for the previous four first quarters were 189,566,760 in 2019; 153,166,437 in 2020; 86,850,884 in 2021; and 158,171,113 in 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 120 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 120 million and 140 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 140 million but fewer than 160 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 160 million and 180 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 180 million but fewer than 200 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"200 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 120 million","Between 120 million and 140 million, inclusive","More than 140 million but fewer than 160 million","Between 160 million and 180 million, inclusive","More than 180 million but fewer than 200 million","200 million or more"],"target":"More than 180 million but fewer than 200 million"}
{"Question":"Before 1 April 2023, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?","Started_time":"2022-09-16","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid successful counterattacks by Ukrainian forces in the east of the country, there are concerns that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (The Hill, US News & World Report). A radiological device (aka \"dirty bomb\") would not count (Mass.gov).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.49%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.51%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of a country in the Horn of Africa before 1 April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-06-24","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Drought, conflict, and other factors have left millions in the Horn of Africa facing potential famine (ABC News, Reliefweb, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool). For the purposes of this question, the countries in the Horn of Africa are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda (Britannica). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19.96%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.04%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-08-05","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, there is continued speculation that Putin may recognize Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers (Britannica, European Council on Foreign Relations, Balkan Insight, G4 Media [in Romanian]).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.78%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.22%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of an ECOWAS member state in Western Africa before 1 April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-05-27","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"War and conflict have left millions in Western Africa facing potential famine (Food and Agriculture Organization, Africa Report, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool). The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is made up of fifteen member countries that are located in Western Africa (ECOWAS). Whether a member state is suspended would be immaterial. For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.63%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.37%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen before 1 April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-06-03","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"War and conflict have left millions in Yemen facing potential famine (World Food Program - Yemen Emergency Dashboard March 2022, Hunger Hotspots - February to May 2022 Outlook, Integrated Food Security Phase Classification - Mapping Tool). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.35%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.65%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will an electrical blackout lasting at least one hour and affecting 60 million or more people in the US and\/or Canada occur before 1 April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-08-05","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society"],"Description":"There are concerns over US vulnerability to potential power outages\/blackouts due to energy demand, aging infrastructure, and cyberattacks (ASCE, Council on Foreign Relations). The outcome will be determined using credible open-source reporting. Examples of previous major blackouts affecting the US and\/or Canada include The Great Northeast Blackout of 1965 and the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (History.com, BBC). Intentional \"rolling blackouts\" would not count (Constellation Energy Resources).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.08%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.92%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the Council of the European Union (Council) declare a \"Union alert\" triggering a mandatory, EU-wide reduction in natural gas consumption?","Started_time":"2022-08-12","Closed_time":"2023-04-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid fears of an energy crisis due to threats to Russian natural gas supplies, the Council adopted a regulation setting a voluntary natural gas consumption cut of 15% that could become mandatory upon the declaration of a \"Union alert\" (US News & World Report, Council of the European Union - Press Release, Council of the European Union - COUNCIL REGULATION on coordinated demand-reduction measures for gas, see Article 4). The question would close upon the date of the official decision being made by the Council, irrespective of the date of publication in the Official Journal.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Not before 1 April 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2022","Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022","Between 1 January 2023 and 31 March 2023","Not before 1 April 2023"],"target":"Not before 1 April 2023"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of 29 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2023-03-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"As inflation began rising in the US and around the world in 2021, the Federal Reserve has laid the groundwork to begin reducing the size of its balance sheet as it raises interest rates (US News & World Report, CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve, with \"Zoom\" set to \"1 y\" (Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve - Table Format (data table)). As of 13 April 2022, the Total Assets of the Federal Reserve were $8,965,487 million, or $8.965487 trillion.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $7.2 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $7.2 trillion and $7.6 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $7.6 trillion but less than $8.0 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $8.0 trillion and $8.4 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $8.4 trillion but less than $8.8 trillion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"Between $8.8 trillion and $9.2 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"More than $9.2 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than $7.2 trillion","Between $7.2 trillion and $7.6 trillion, inclusive","More than $7.6 trillion but less than $8.0 trillion","Between $8.0 trillion and $8.4 trillion, inclusive","More than $8.4 trillion but less than $8.8 trillion","Between $8.8 trillion and $9.2 trillion, inclusive","More than $9.2 trillion"],"target":"More than $8.4 trillion but less than $8.8 trillion"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for the UK 10-year gilt (bond) on 31 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-07","Closed_time":"2023-03-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Like Treasury bonds in the US, UK gilts are government bonds issued for different lengths of time (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC, set chart to \"3M\"). The closing yield for the UK 10-year gilt on 30 September 2022 was 4.0830%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.000%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 3.000% and 4.000%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"More than 4.000% but less than 5.000%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 5.000% and 6.000%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6.000% but less than 7.000%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"7.000% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.000%","Between 3.000% and 4.000%, inclusive","More than 4.000% but less than 5.000%","Between 5.000% and 6.000%, inclusive","More than 6.000% but less than 7.000%","7.000% or more"],"target":"Between 3.000% and 4.000%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 31 March 2023, will the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US fall below 4.55%?","Started_time":"2022-07-22","Closed_time":"2023-03-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"Mortgage rates in the US have risen considerably in 2022 (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 21 July 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 5.54%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.40%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.60%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Jair Bolsonaro return to Brazil?","Started_time":"2023-01-20","Closed_time":"2023-03-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro left Brazil for Florida before President Lula's inauguration on 1 January 2023 (CNN). Brazil's Supreme Court is investigating actions by Bolsonaro supporters at various government buildings in Bras\u00edlia on 8 January 2023 (AP, NPR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 20 February 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 20 February 2023 and 22 March 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"Not before 23 May 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"}},"choices":["Before 20 February 2023","Between 20 February 2023 and 22 March 2023","Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023","Not before 23 May 2023"],"target":"Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023"}
{"Question":"How many tech industry employees will be laid off in February 2023 and March 2023, according to Layoffs.fyi?","Started_time":"2023-02-02","Closed_time":"2023-03-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Nonrival Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society"],"Description":"As economic outlooks weaken, tech companies have begun laying off workers (Nonrival, BBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the website Layoffs.fyi (Layoffs.fyi, see \"Layoff Charts\" and hover your cursor over the chart for monthly data). Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM on 7 April 2023. As of the launch of this question, layoffs for 10,249 employees were reported in December 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"30,000 or more in February 2023, but not March 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"30,000 or more in March 2023, but not February 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"30,000 or more in both February 2023 and March 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Fewer than 30,000 in both February 2023 and March 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["30,000 or more in February 2023, but not March 2023","30,000 or more in March 2023, but not February 2023","30,000 or more in both February 2023 and March 2023","Fewer than 30,000 in both February 2023 and March 2023"],"target":"30,000 or more in both February 2023 and March 2023"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 22 March 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 February 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-04","Closed_time":"2023-03-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 21-22 March 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"What will be the highest annual inflation rate in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for any month between and including September 2022 and February 2023?","Started_time":"2022-08-26","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Inflation concerns continue to rise in the UK, particularly regarding energy (CNBC, Axios). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome will be determined using the \"CPI ANNUAL RATE\" as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) when data for February 2023 are first released, expected in March 2023 (ONS, hover cursor over chart line for data).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 11.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 11.0% and 14.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"More than 14.0% but less than 17.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 17.0% and 20.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 20.0% but less than 23.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"23.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 11.0%","Between 11.0% and 14.0%, inclusive","More than 14.0% but less than 17.0%","Between 17.0% and 20.0%, inclusive","More than 20.0% but less than 23.0%","23.0% or more"],"target":"Between 11.0% and 14.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Georgia and those of Russia, Abkhazia, and\/or South Ossetia result in 100 or more fatalities?","Started_time":"2022-09-16","Closed_time":"2023-03-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid Russia's war in Ukraine and renewed fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan, some officials in Georgia are calling for a referendum on reclaiming the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia lost in Russia's invasion in 2008 (Odessa Journal, US Institute of Peace, Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty, NPR). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.26%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.74%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?","Started_time":"2022-09-16","Closed_time":"2023-03-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are continuing concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (ABC News, BBC, DefenseNews). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. For the purposes of this question, Russia's detonation of a nuclear device in either Belarus or Ukraine would be considered a Russian public announcement that it moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.04%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.96%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will federal legislation providing for the establishment of a US interagency committee on global catastrophic risk become law before 1 January 2023?","Started_time":"2022-07-29","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"On 23 June 2022, US Sens. Rob Portman and Gary Peters introduced a bill entitled the \"Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act of 2022,\" which would require the president to establish an interagency committee on catastrophic risk (Congress.gov, Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.06%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.94%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 9 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-09","Closed_time":"2023-03-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Oil prices are being pushed and pulled by a number of factors, from production limits and Russian sanctions to demand concerns (US News & World Report, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using US Energy Information Administration data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $48.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $48.00 and $60.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $60.00 but less than $72.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $72.00 and $84.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"More than $84.00 but less than $96.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"Between $96.00 and $108.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $108.00 but less than $120.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$120.00 or more per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $48.00 per barrel","Between $48.00 and $60.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $60.00 but less than $72.00 per barrel","Between $72.00 and $84.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $84.00 but less than $96.00 per barrel","Between $96.00 and $108.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $108.00 but less than $120.00 per barrel","$120.00 or more per barrel"],"target":"Between $72.00 and $84.00 per barrel, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?","Started_time":"2023-02-24","Closed_time":"2023-03-16","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"North Korea has launched a flurry of missile tests in 2022  (Economist, NPR, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, ambiguous reporting regarding the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be ultimately decided using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 24 May 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Between 24 May 2023 and 23 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Not before 24 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"}},"choices":["Before 24 May 2023","Between 24 May 2023 and 23 August 2023","Not before 24 August 2023"],"target":"Before 24 May 2023"}
{"Question":"Will the New York Times report more than 8,000 new cases of COVID-19 in Virginia for a single day between 10 January 2023 and 15 March 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-10","Closed_time":"2023-03-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health"],"Description":"After declining steadily since August 2022, daily new cases of COVID-19 began to rise in December 2022 (WTVR). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the New York Times (NY Times, select \"Last 90 days\" under \"New reported cases\" and hover your cursor over the chart for data). For 2 January 2023, 6,430 new cases were reported in Virginia.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.17%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.83%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and\/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 15 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-09-09","Closed_time":"2023-03-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (Newsweek, Politico). For the purposes of this question, \"territorial waters\" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan, and military drones would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.71%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.29%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2023 Oscar for Best Picture?","Started_time":"2023-01-27","Closed_time":"2023-03-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 95th\u00a0Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, are scheduled for 12 March 2023 (Oscars). In the event of a tie, the film with the higher box office total through and including 11 March 2023 according to Box Office Mojo would be deemed the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"All Quiet on the Western Front":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Avatar: The Way of Water":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"The Banshees of Inisherin":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Elvis":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Everything Everywhere All at Once":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"The Fablemans":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"T\u00e1r":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Top Gun: Maverick":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Triangle of Sadness":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Women Talking":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["All Quiet on the Western Front","Avatar: The Way of Water","The Banshees of Inisherin","Elvis","Everything Everywhere All at Once","The Fablemans","T\u00e1r","Top Gun: Maverick","Triangle of Sadness","Women Talking"],"target":"Everything Everywhere All at Once"}
{"Question":"How many Oscars will the film Everything Everywhere All at Once win?","Started_time":"2023-01-27","Closed_time":"2023-03-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the nominations in 2023 at 11 (NPR). The 95th\u00a0Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, are scheduled for 12 March 2023 (Oscars). For the purposes of this question, a tie in a category would count as a win.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"None":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Between 2 and 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"},"Between 5 and 7":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"8 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["None","1","Between 2 and 4","Between 5 and 7","8 or more"],"target":"Between 5 and 7"}
{"Question":"Will the total monetary value of victim losses reported by the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) for 2022 reach or exceed $9.0 billion?","Started_time":"2022-05-20","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society"],"Description":"The FBI's IC3 collects Internet crime complaints and publishes an annual Internet Crime Report (IC3). For 2021, IC3 reported in excess of $6.9 billion in total victim losses (FBI). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using IC3's 2022 Internet Crime Report, expected to be released in the spring of 2023 (IC3 Annual Reports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.93%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19.07%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many part-time workers will there be in the US in February 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?","Started_time":"2022-04-06","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Wharton Future of Work Conference"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The number of part-time workers in the US has recovered some since the beginning of the pandemic but is still below pre-pandemic levels of approximately 27 million. The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the by the BLS for February 2023, expected in March 2023 (BLS - Release Calendar). As of the March 2022 Employment Situation report, the number of part-time workers for February 2022 was 25,801,000 (BLS - February 2020 Employment Situation, see \"Part-time workers\" in Table A-9 Selected employment indicators). For historical data, visit: https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/data\/#employment. Under \"Monthly,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Labor Force Statistics.\" For \"1 Sex,\" select \"Both Sexes.\" For \"2 Race,\" find and select \"All Races.\" For \"3 Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity,\" find and select \"All Origins.\" For \"4 Age,\" find and select \"16 years and over.\" For \"5 Education (25 years and over only),\" select \"All education levels.\" For \"6 Marital Status,\" find and select \"N\/A.\" For \"7 Labor Force Status,\" find and select \"Employed part time (persons who usually work less than 35 hours).\" For \"8 Seasonal,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked. For \"9 Periodicity, leave only \"Monthly\" checked, then click \"Get Data\" (note that pop-up blockers may obstruct proper functioning).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 25 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between 25 million and 26 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"More than 26 million but fewer than 27 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"27 million or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 25 million","Between 25 million and 26 million, inclusive","More than 26 million but fewer than 27 million","27 million or more"],"target":"27 million or more"}
{"Question":"Between 1 December 2022 and 28 February 2023, will the 7-day moving average of COVID-19 reported cases in British Columbia (BC) reach or exceed 1,000, according to the BC Center for Disease Control?","Started_time":"2022-11-29","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The BC health system is already grappling with increases in respiratory diseases, though COVID-19 cases have thus far remained low as winter approaches (CBC, Vancouver Sun). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the \"BC COVID-19 Dashboard\" (BC Centre for Disease Control, click \"COVID-19 Dashboard\"). The \"7-day Moving Avg\" data can be viewed in the chart under \"B.C. Cases Reported to Public Health\" by hovering your cursor over the line for the average. You may also see daily numbers by hovering your cursor over the daily columns more easily by narrowing the date range with the slider immediately above the chart. As of 29 November 2022, the 7-day moving average of reported COVID-19 cases on 4 November 2022 was 57.6.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.70%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.30%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will US FCC nominee Gigi Sohn be confirmed by the Senate before 24 June 2023?","Started_time":"2023-02-24","Closed_time":"2023-03-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"President Biden first nominated Sohn to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) in October 2021, but the Senate did not hold a confirmation vote in the last Congress (NPR). Biden renominated her in January 2023, but Republican opposition remains high (Ars Technica, Roll Call, Deadline). The question would close early upon either a withdrawal of her nomination or a full Senate vote against confirmation.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16.70%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83.30%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the average price of large eggs per dozen in the US as of 3 March 2023, according to the USDA?","Started_time":"2023-02-03","Closed_time":"2023-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Environment","Sports"],"Description":"Egg prices rose substantially in 2022, though there are reports that they may have peaked in December (USA Today, Farm Policy News). The question will be suspended on 2 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data from the USDA (USDA - Shell Eggs: Weekly Combined Regional Shell Eggs, click on a release of the report and look up the value in the \"COMBINED REGIONAL\" row under the \"LARGE\" column). Links to previous releases are available at the bottom of the page. On 27 January 2023, the USDA reported the average combined regional price of 337.34 cents per dozen (USDA - Weekly Combined Regional Shell Eggs 27 January 2023).This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 200 cents":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 200 cents and 250 cents, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64%"},"More than 250 cents but less than 300 cents":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Between 300 cents and 350 cents, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 350 cents but less than 400 cents":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 400 and 450 cents, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 450 cents":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Less than 200 cents","Between 200 cents and 250 cents, inclusive","More than 250 cents but less than 300 cents","Between 300 cents and 350 cents, inclusive","More than 350 cents but less than 400 cents","Between 400 and 450 cents, inclusive","More than 450 cents"],"target":"More than 250 cents but less than 300 cents"}
{"Question":"What will be the US office vacancy rate for the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?","Started_time":"2021-09-17","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Office vacancy rates increased sharply during 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics (Flatland KC, NY Business Journal, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using the US office vacancy rate as reported in the Colliers Q4 2022 Office Market Outlook report, expected in February 2023 (Colliers). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 11.4%; the rate for Q2 2021, at question launch, was 14.7% (Colliers - Q4 2019, Colliers - Q2 2021).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 12.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"Higher than 17.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 12.5%","Between 12.5% and 14.0%, inclusive","Higher than 14.0% but lower than 15.5%","Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive","Higher than 17.0%"],"target":"Between 15.5% and 17.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the FAO Cereals Price Index for February 2023?","Started_time":"2022-04-08","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Indicies, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Axios, Slate). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for Cereals for February 2023, expected in early March 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the value for the Cereals Price Index for March 2022 was 170.1. To download historical nominal data, click either \"Excel\" or \"CSV\" above the chart titled \"FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 120.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 120.0 and 140.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"More than 140.0 but less than 160.0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"Between 160.0 and 180.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 180.0 but less than 200.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 200.0 and 220.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 220.0 but less than 240.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"240.0 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 120.0","Between 120.0 and 140.0, inclusive","More than 140.0 but less than 160.0","Between 160.0 and 180.0, inclusive","More than 180.0 but less than 200.0","Between 200.0 and 220.0, inclusive","More than 220.0 but less than 240.0","240.0 or more"],"target":"More than 140.0 but less than 160.0"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the FAO Meat Price Index for February 2023?","Started_time":"2022-04-08","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Indicies, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Axios, Slate). The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for Meat for February 2023, expected in early March 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the value for the Meat Price Index for March 2022 was 120.0. To download historical nominal data, click either \"Excel\" or \"CSV\" above the chart titled \"FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 105.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 105.0 and 114.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"More than 114.0 but less than 123.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"Between 123.0 and 132.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 132.0 but less than 141.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 141.0 and 150.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 150.0 but less than 159.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"159.0 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 105.0","Between 105.0 and 114.0, inclusive","More than 114.0 but less than 123.0","Between 123.0 and 132.0, inclusive","More than 132.0 but less than 141.0","Between 141.0 and 150.0, inclusive","More than 150.0 but less than 159.0","159.0 or more"],"target":"Between 105.0 and 114.0, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the month-over-month percentage change in Turkey's consumer price index reach or exceed 3.5% in both January 2023 and February 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-16","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 28 February 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by Turkstat (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey).NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.19%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.81%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will any two of the following major cities in Ukraine not be within an area of \"Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory\" as of 1 March 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?","Started_time":"2023-01-16","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using information as reported by the ISW \"as of\" 1 March 2023 (ISW). For the purposes of this question, the \"following major cities in Ukraine\" are Alchevsk, Berdiansk, Donetsk, Horlivka, Kerch, Luhansk, Lysychansk, Makiivka, Mariupol, Melitopol, Sevastopol, Sievierodonetsk, Simferopol, Yenakiieve, and Yevpatoria. Any \"Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\" would be immaterial. The entire city must be out of \"Assessed Russian-controlled Ukrainian Territory\" to count.NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.21%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.79%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the number of Royal College of Nursing strike days in England in February 2023 exceed the number of strike days in January 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-18","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Only strike days called by the Royal College of Nursing will count for resolution (Royal College of Nurses). A strike for part of a day would count as a day. As of launch on 18 January 2023, the RCN had planned for at least 2 days of strikes in February (6-7 February 2023) and 2 days of strikes in January (18-19 January 2023), which follows 2 days of strikes in the previous month (15 and 20 December 2022) (Guardian).NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.48%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.52%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the ending stocks of crude oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-22","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"President Biden announced in late March 2022 that the US would release one million barrels of crude oil a day from the SPR to relieve energy prices amidst the Russian war with Ukraine (CNBC, Energy.gov). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) when first released for December 2022, expected in February 2023 (EIA). For December 2021, ending stocks totaled 593,682 thousand barrels.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 340,000 thousand barrels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 340,000 thousand barrels and 400,000 thousand barrels, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"More than 400,000 thousand barrels but less than 460,000 thousand barrels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 460,000 thousand barrels and 520,000 thousand barrels, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 520,000 thousand barrels but less than 580,000 thousand barrels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"580,000 thousand barrels or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 340,000 thousand barrels","Between 340,000 thousand barrels and 400,000 thousand barrels, inclusive","More than 400,000 thousand barrels but less than 460,000 thousand barrels","Between 460,000 thousand barrels and 520,000 thousand barrels, inclusive","More than 520,000 thousand barrels but less than 580,000 thousand barrels","580,000 thousand barrels or more"],"target":"Between 340,000 thousand barrels and 400,000 thousand barrels, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 18 January 2023 and 28 February 2023, will the UK Department of Health and Social Care announce a new increase in pay for nurses in England?","Started_time":"2023-01-18","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"At least 51% of nurses in England must be included in the announced pay increase for it to count. A one-off payment would not count (Guardian).NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.95%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.05%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-18","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.08%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86.92%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 March 2023, will Russia either officially announce the formal annexation of additional territory in Ukraine or send uniformed military forces into another country without its government's permission?","Started_time":"2023-01-18","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"For the purposes of this question, \"additional territory\" means any Ukrainian territory other than territory in the oblasts of Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, or Zaporizhzhia. Forces that are not formally part of the Russian military (e.g., Wagner Group) would not count.NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.21%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.79%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2023 Nigerian presidential election?","Started_time":"2022-08-26","Closed_time":"2023-02-25","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Nigeria is scheduled to hold a presidential election in February 2023, with incumbent APC President Buhari term-limited (Daily Trust, US Institute of Peace, Vanguard). Nigeria uses a modified two-round system where winning in the first round requires a majority and \"at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria\u2019s 36 states\" (BBC). The question would close upon officially announced results of the presidential election, irrespective of any judicial intervention. The suspend date would be changed to accommodate a postponement of election day to another date in 2023, but will not be extended to accommodate a runoff election. If a runoff election is required and will not take place in 2023, the question would close \"A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate","The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate","Someone else","A Nigerian presidential election will not take place in 2023"],"target":"The All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate"}
{"Question":"Between 18 January 2023 and 28 February 2023, will 60 or more countries in the UN General Assembly either vote against or abstain from voting on a resolution in any way condemning Russia by name?","Started_time":"2023-01-18","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"For examples of previous resolutions in any way condemning Russia by name, please see https:\/\/digitallibrary.un.org\/record\/3990673?ln=en and https:\/\/digitallibrary.un.org\/record\/3965290?ln=en. Some variation of the verb \"condemn\" must be used in the resolution to count. In a related UN General Assembly resolution from October 2022, a total of 40 countries had either voted against the resolution (5 countries) or abstained (35 countries) (UN).NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.14%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.86%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"On 27 February 2023, will the most recent blog post published by the Dupuy Institute covering the 'Russo-Ukrainian War' include an estimate of the strength of Russian ground forces in and around Ukraine plus those of the Donetsk PR and the Lugansk PR to be greater than 200,000?","Started_time":"2023-01-18","Closed_time":"2023-02-27","Challenges_list":["Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As of 18 January 2023, the latest blog post published by the Dupuy Institute covering the 'Russo-Ukrainian War' included an estimate of strength of Russian ground forces, plus those of the Donetsk PR and the Lugansk PR, of 184,000 (see http:\/\/www.dupuyinstitute.org\/blog\/2023\/01\/16\/the-russo-ukrainian-war-day-327\/). \"The Russian army (ground forces) in and around Ukraine is probably around 150,000 (up to 190,000). Donetsk PR is estimated at 20,000 and Lugansk at 14,000.\" The blog will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET.NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17.60%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82.40%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"On 27 February 2023, will the combined number of likes and retweets of the most recent @theRCN tweet as of 14 February 2023 (UK time) that contains the hashtag #FairPayforNursing exceed 4,000?","Started_time":"2023-01-16","Closed_time":"2023-02-27","Challenges_list":["Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 26 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as displayed on Twitter at approximately 11:59PM in the UK on 27 February 2023 (6:59PM ET). An example of a qualifying tweet may be found here: Twitter.NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the value of the euro to Turkish lira exchange rate be higher than 22.000 on 28 February 2023?","Started_time":"2023-01-16","Closed_time":"2023-02-28","Challenges_list":["Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by ExchangeRates.org.uk for 28 February 2023 (Exchangerates.org.uk, see \"Table of 1 Euro to Turkish Lira Exchange Rate\").NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.54%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.46%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Saudi Arabia announce that it will normalize relations with the State of Israel before 1 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-08-19","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Like most Arab states, Saudi Arabia does not officially recognize Israel despite some cooperation between the two countries (France 24, International Bar Association). Various Arab states recognized or agreed to normalize relations with Israel in 2020 (e.g., NY Times, CNN, NPR, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.21%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.79%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"On 1 March 2023, will the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) 1-week repo interest rate be below 10.5%?","Started_time":"2023-01-16","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CBRT (CBRT).NOTE: Questions in the Fujitsu Hivemind Challenge have been partly crowdsourced through a research project and consequently may have experimental framings.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.88%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.12%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will there be a pilot strike at a major US airline before 1 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-18","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Politics"],"Description":"US airlines are facing the prospect of pilot strikes as labor negotiations continue (CNBC, CBS News, CNN). For the purposes of this question, the major US airlines are American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines. A strike need not include all airline pilots to count. The duration of a strike would be immaterial so long as the strike actually begins.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.71%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.29%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will legislation generally permitting employees who work from home to itemize deductions related to home office expenses become law before 1 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-04-06","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Wharton Future of Work Conference"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in 2017 suspended the \"business use of home\" tax deduction, which meant that those working from home who were not self-employed were generally denied the ability to deduct work-from-home expenses from their taxes (CNBC, Intuit TurboTax, IRS News Release 23 September 2020, IRS Publication 587). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial so long as it would take effect before 2026. Legislation generally authorizing employees to make the deductions, but with exceptions and\/or dollar or percentage limits, would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.10%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89.90%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage from $7.25 an hour become law before 1 March 2023?","Started_time":"2022-04-06","Closed_time":"2023-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Wharton Future of Work Conference"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The US Senate rejected a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage proposal, but there are still pushes for a raise (The Hill, CNBC). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour (Cornell - 29 USC \u00a7 206, US Department of Labor). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.48%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.52%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new tweet on former President Donald Trump's Twitter account, @realdonaldtrump, before 26 February 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-25","Closed_time":"2023-02-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics"],"Description":"Elon Musk announced that Trump's Twitter account was reactivated after a poll held on the site, but Trump has thus far said that he has no interest in returning to Twitter (CNBC, Twitter). Retweets would not count, and a tweet that is immediately deleted or removed would count so long as there is credible reporting that the tweet occurred. Claims that a tweet was the result of a hack would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.24%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.76%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 24 February 2023, according to CoinMarketCap?","Started_time":"2022-11-11","Closed_time":"2023-02-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Troubles at the crypto exchange FTX are the latest hit to the cryptocurrency ecosystem (CNBC, CoinDesk, Decrypt). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 24 February 2023 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" (CoinMarketCap, set \"Zoom\" to \"7d\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $200 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $200 billion and $600 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $600 billion but less than $1.0 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"More than $1.4 trillion but less than $1.8 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $2.2 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $200 billion","Between $200 billion and $600 billion, inclusive","More than $600 billion but less than $1.0 trillion","Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive","More than $1.4 trillion but less than $1.8 trillion","Between $1.8 trillion and $2.2 trillion, inclusive","More than $2.2 trillion"],"target":"Between $1.0 trillion and $1.4 trillion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How much coal will the US export in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","Started_time":"2022-07-29","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Environment","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Amid a looming potential energy crisis in Europe, coal demand as begun rising (Oil Price, Metal Miner, S&P Global). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data for October, November, and December 2022 as reported in the EIA's Monthly Energy Review that first includes data for December 2022 (EIA). On the EIA page, click \"+Coal\" and download the \"XLS\" report for \"6.1 Overview.\" The relevant data are in the column titled \"Coal Exports (Thousand Short Tons).\" In the fourth quarter of 2021, the US exported 21,650.736 short tons (7,259.097 in October 2021, 6,994.391 in November 2021, and 7,397.248 in December 2021). According to the July 2022 Monthly Energy Review, the US exported 21,763.369 short tons of coal in the fourth quarter of 2021 (7,516.323 in October 2021, 6,834.235 in November 2021, and 7,412.811 in December 2021).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 20,000 tons":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 20,000 tons and 22,000 tons, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"},"More than 22,000 tons but less than 24,000 tons":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Between 24,000 tons and 26,000 tons, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than 26,000 tons":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Less than 20,000 tons","Between 20,000 tons and 22,000 tons, inclusive","More than 22,000 tons but less than 24,000 tons","Between 24,000 tons and 26,000 tons, inclusive","More than 26,000 tons"],"target":"Between 20,000 tons and 22,000 tons, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","Started_time":"2020-05-22","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations (Smart Energy International, Reuters). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO) for all of 2022, via the graph \"Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)\" when the filter for \"Charger type\" is set to \"Fast (>22kW)\" and the filters at the top of the page are set to \"European Union\" and \"2022\".This question is the longer-term companion of question #1579. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 25,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 30,000 but less than 35,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 40,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 25,000","Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","More than 30,000 but less than 35,000","Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive","More than 40,000"],"target":"More than 40,000"}
{"Question":"Between 12 August 2022 and 18 February 2023, will former President Donald Trump be criminally charged with or indicted for a federal and\/or state crime in the US?","Started_time":"2022-08-12","Closed_time":"2023-02-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Former President Trump is currently under investigation by various US jurisdictions (BBC, Bloomberg, Politico). Any criminal charge or indictment under seal would only count upon the unsealing of the charge or indictment during the question's open period (Cornell, see Definition (1), Legal Beagle). Contempt charges or citations imposed by a judge or judicial officer alone would not count (Cornell).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, a federal crime only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, a state crime only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Yes, a federal crime only","Yes, a state crime only","Yes, both a federal crime and a state crime","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will North Korea next launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?","Started_time":"2022-12-09","Closed_time":"2023-02-18","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2023","In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"North Korea has launched a flurry of missile tests in 2022  (Economist, NPR, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 March 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Between 1 March 2023 and 31 May 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Between 1 June 2023 and 31 August 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Not before 1 September 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"}},"choices":["Before 1 March 2023","Between 1 March 2023 and 31 May 2023","Between 1 June 2023 and 31 August 2023","Not before 1 September 2023"],"target":"Before 1 March 2023"}
{"Question":"What percentage of US retail sales will be made online in the fourth quarter of 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-23","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"The COVID-19 pandemic drove an increase in online shopping in the US, but whether increases will continue apace is an open question (Digital Commerce 360, Supermarket News). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce\" data when first released by the US Census Bureau for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in February 2023 (Census.gov, see \"Latest Quarterly E-Commerce Report\"). For the fourth quarter of 2021, the Bureau reported Adjusted E-commerce as a Percent of Total as 14.5% (Census.gov - Q2 2021 Table, xls file download).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 13.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 13.5% and 14.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"More than 14.5% but less than 15.5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Between 15.5% and 16.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"More than 16.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"}},"choices":["Less than 13.5%","Between 13.5% and 14.5%, inclusive","More than 14.5% but less than 15.5%","Between 15.5% and 16.5%, inclusive","More than 16.5%"],"target":"More than 14.5% but less than 15.5%"}
{"Question":"What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 13 February 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?","Started_time":"2022-11-11","Closed_time":"2023-02-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","US Politics"],"Description":"Gas prices have fallen from record highs set in the summer of 2022, but supply issues and the question of further withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continue to put pressure on prices (World Oil, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 12 February 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 13 February 2023 (AAA, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $2.80":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $2.80 and $3.20, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $3.20 but less than $3.60":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between $3.60 and $4.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $4.00 but less than $4.40":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $4.40 and $4.80, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $4.80 but less than $5.20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $5.20 and $5.60, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $5.60":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $2.80","Between $2.80 and $3.20, inclusive","More than $3.20 but less than $3.60","Between $3.60 and $4.00, inclusive","More than $4.00 but less than $4.40","Between $4.40 and $4.80, inclusive","More than $4.80 but less than $5.20","Between $5.20 and $5.60, inclusive","More than $5.60"],"target":"More than $3.20 but less than $3.60"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LVII?","Started_time":"2023-01-13","Closed_time":"2023-02-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Super Bowl LVII is scheduled for Sunday 12 February in Glendale, AZ (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"AFC Champion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52%"},"NFC Champion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"No Super Bowl will be played before 7 March 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["AFC Champion","NFC Champion","No Super Bowl will be played before 7 March 2023"],"target":"AFC Champion"}
{"Question":"When will the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariant XBB represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2023-02-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The Omicron subvariant \"XBB\" has made headlines as a so-called \"nightmare\" variant that has spread quickly in Asia and beyond (NBC Chicago, Yahoo News, CDC, STAT). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 October 2022, other Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see \"%Total\"). The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached\u2014and weeks including \"Nowcast\" estimates (i.e., columns with \"NOWCAST\" at the top) would count\u2014or else the week ending 8 April 2023. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The week ending 3 December 2022 or before":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A week ending between 10 December 2022 and 14 January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A week ending between 21 January 2023 and 25 February 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"A week ending between 4 March 2023 and 8 April 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Not before 9 April 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["The week ending 3 December 2022 or before","A week ending between 10 December 2022 and 14 January 2023","A week ending between 21 January 2023 and 25 February 2023","A week ending between 4 March 2023 and 8 April 2023","Not before 9 April 2023"],"target":"A week ending between 21 January 2023 and 25 February 2023"}
{"Question":"What will be the total passenger throughput at airports in China in December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-08-05","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health"],"Description":"Amid a continued \"Zero COVID\" policy, China has seen major air travel disruptions and low passenger counts in 2022 (CGTN, FlightGlobal). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as first reported by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) (CAAC). For December 2021, the CAAC reported Passenger Throughput of 5590.3 (in units of 10,000), or 55,903,000 passengers (CAAC - Key Performance Indicators December 2021).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 20 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"100 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 20 million","Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive","More than 40 million but fewer than 60 million","Between 60 million and 80 million, inclusive","More than 80 million but fewer than 100 million","100 million or more"],"target":"Between 20 million and 40 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many total international overnight guests will visit Dubai in 2022, according to the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing?","Started_time":"2021-09-30","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2022","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data from the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing (Dubai Tourism). For example, 5.51 million total international overnight guests visited Dubai in 2020, while 16.73 million visited in 2019 (Dubai Tourism - 2020 Annual Report, Dubai Tourism - 2019 Annual Report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 10.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 10.0 and 12.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"69%"},"Between 15.0 and 17.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"More than 17.5 million but fewer than 20.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 20.0 million and 22.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 22.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 10.0 million","Between 10.0 and 12.5 million, inclusive","More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million","Between 15.0 and 17.5 million, inclusive","More than 17.5 million but fewer than 20.0 million","Between 20.0 million and 22.5 million, inclusive","More than 22.5 million"],"target":"More than 12.5 but fewer than 15.0 million"}
{"Question":"What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)?","Started_time":"2020-04-02","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles (Reuters, NASDAQ, CSP, IEA). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by EV-volumes.com for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% (EV-volumes.com). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"More than 8.5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.5%","Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive","More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%","Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive","More than 8.5%"],"target":"More than 8.5%"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 1 February 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2022-11-11","Closed_time":"2023-02-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 January 2023 and the outcome determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 7 November 2022, Biden's approval rating was 41.4%. The data for 1 February 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 February 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 38.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"74%"},"Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 38.0%","Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive","Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%","Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive","Higher than 50.0%"],"target":"Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%"}
{"Question":"What will be the FAO Food Price Index for January 2023?","Started_time":"2022-04-01","Closed_time":"2023-02-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Axios, Slate). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2023 and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for January 2023, expected in early February 2023 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of launch, the Food Price Index for January 2022 was 135.4. To download historical nominal data, click either \"Excel\" or \"CSV\" above the chart titled \"FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 125.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"More than 135.0 but less than 145.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Between 145.0 and 155.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 155.0 but less than 165.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 165.0 and 175.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 175.0 but less than 185.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 185.0 and 195.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 195.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 125.0","Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive","More than 135.0 but less than 145.0","Between 145.0 and 155.0, inclusive","More than 155.0 but less than 165.0","Between 165.0 and 175.0, inclusive","More than 175.0 but less than 185.0","Between 185.0 and 195.0, inclusive","More than 195.0"],"target":"Between 125.0 and 135.0, inclusive"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 1 February 2023, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 14 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-09-23","Closed_time":"2023-02-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January\/February meeting is scheduled for 31 January - 1 February 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","Started_time":"2020-04-02","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (Clean Technica,\u00a0Financial Times). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a\u00a02015 Nature Climate Change study. The Mack Institute found that there was \"a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh\" (The Mack Institute).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $80 per kWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $140 per kWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $80 per kWh","Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive","More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh","Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive","More than $140 per kWh"],"target":"Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 February 2023, will there be an attack on a federal facility in the US resulting in at least ten fatalities?","Started_time":"2022-08-19","Closed_time":"2023-02-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"After the FBI searched former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in August 2022, threats against federal law enforcement have increased (NPR, NBC News, CBS News). The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.66%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.34%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the office vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to Colliers?","Started_time":"2021-10-22","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Multiple sources have reported increased office vacancy rates in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area, and Canada overall as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and new work-from-home dynamics (RENX.ca, Canadian Real Estate, Bloomberg, Toronto Star). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome\u00a0 determined using the vacancy rate for the Greater Toronto Area as first reported by the Toronto Office Market Report Q4 2022, expected in January 2023 (Colliers Canada). The rate for Q4 2019, before the pandemic, was 4.0%; the rate for Q3 2021, at question launch, was 8.5% (Colliers Canada - Toronto Q4 2019, Colliers Canada - Toronto Q3 2021).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"Higher than 11.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Lower than 5.0%","Between 5.0% and 7.0%, inclusive","Higher than 7.0% but lower than 9.0%","Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive","Higher than 11.0%"],"target":"Between 9.0% and 11.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-07-22","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"Wildfires have already consumed over 5 million acres across the US as of mid-July 2022, with large fires still ongoing in Alaska and elsewhere (Axios, KTOO, Sacramento Bee). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2021, reported wildfires consumed 7,125,643 acres in the US (Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2021).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 6.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 8.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 9.5 million and 11.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 11.0 million but fewer than 12.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"12.5 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 6.5 million","Between 6.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive","More than 8.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million","Between 9.5 million and 11.0 million, inclusive","More than 11.0 million but fewer than 12.5 million","12.5 million or more"],"target":"Between 6.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the 2023 AFC Championship?","Started_time":"2023-01-13","Closed_time":"2023-01-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2023 AFC Championship is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023 (NFL, CBS Sports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Baltimore Ravens":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Buffalo Bills":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Cincinnati Bengals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"Jacksonville Jaguars":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Kansas City Chiefs":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Los Angeles Chargers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Miami Dolphins":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"There will be no 2023 AFC Champion before 21 February 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"}},"choices":["Baltimore Ravens","Buffalo Bills","Cincinnati Bengals","Jacksonville Jaguars","Kansas City Chiefs","Los Angeles Chargers","Miami Dolphins","There will be no 2023 AFC Champion before 21 February 2023"],"target":"Kansas City Chiefs"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the 2023 NFC Championship?","Started_time":"2023-01-13","Closed_time":"2023-01-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2023 NFC Championship is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023 (NFL, CBS Sports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Dallas Cowboys":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Minnesota Vikings":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New York Giants":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Philadelphia Eagles":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"San Francisco 49ers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"Seattle Seahawks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tampa Bay Buccaneers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"There will be no 2023 NFC Champion before 21 February 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"}},"choices":["Dallas Cowboys","Minnesota Vikings","New York Giants","Philadelphia Eagles","San Francisco 49ers","Seattle Seahawks","Tampa Bay Buccaneers","There will be no 2023 NFC Champion before 21 February 2023"],"target":"Philadelphia Eagles"}
{"Question":"Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-08-05","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) PCE Price Index data as first reported in its monthly Personal Income and Outlays reports (Reports) (BEA - Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index). Subsequent revisions to data for previously-reported months in 2022 would be immaterial. In the Report for June 2022, the percentage change from June 2021 to June 2022 was 6.8% (BEA - Personal Income and Outlays June 2022, see Table 11, Line 1).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.26%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.74%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Microchip shortages, broader supply-chain issues, and rising interest rates are all putting pressure on US auto sales (CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined by adding all monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once December 2022 data are first available (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 13.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13.0 million and 13.6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 13.6 million but fewer than 14.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"More than 14.8 million but fewer than 15.4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 15.4 million and 16.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 16.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 13.0 million","Between 13.0 million and 13.6 million, inclusive","More than 13.6 million but fewer than 14.2 million","Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive","More than 14.8 million but fewer than 15.4 million","Between 15.4 million and 16.0 million, inclusive","More than 16.0 million"],"target":"Between 14.2 million and 14.8 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the location of the administrative services building in Bakhmut, Ukraine, cease to be under Ukrainian control before 26 January 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War?","Started_time":"2022-11-11","Closed_time":"2023-01-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Ukrainian forces are facing heavy fire from Russian troops attempting to capture the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region (EuroNews, US News & World Report, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address of the building (Tsentr Nadannya Administratyvnykh Posluh Mista Bakhmut) is Myru St, 44, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500, to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. The location identified by the interactive map will be used for resolution. For the purposes of this question, \"Claimed Russian Control\" would not count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control, but \"Assessed Russian Advance\" would count as ceasing to be under Ukrainian control.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.74%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.26%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-13","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https:\/\/ir.tesla.com\/financial-information\/quarterly-results. Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q3 2021 totaled 232,102 (Tesla).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 700,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1,900,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 700,000","Between 700,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive","More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000","Between 1,300,000 and 1,600,000, inclusive","More than 1,600,000 but fewer than 1,900,000","1,900,000 or more"],"target":"More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,300,000"}
{"Question":"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","Started_time":"2020-06-05","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 (Reuters). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 (Tesla). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https:\/\/ir.tesla.com\/financial-information\/quarterly-results.This question is the longer-term companion of question #1646. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 700,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"More than 2,200,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 700,000","Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000","Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive","More than 2,200,000"],"target":"Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and\/or relax the implementation and\/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and\/or new light commercial vehicles?","Started_time":"2020-05-15","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations (European Automobile Manufacturers Association,\u00a0Europa,\u00a0Electrive). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see\u00a0REGULATION (EU) 2019\/631, particularly Article 4 and the annexes.\u00a0The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.This question is the longer-term companion of question #1619. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2022 relative to the 2021 holiday season?","Started_time":"2022-07-01","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"As high inflation and inventory issues persist in the US, retail sales are being closely watched (NASDAQ, Axios, FRED, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas\" data from the US Census Bureau for November and December 2022 relative to the same period in 2021, expected to be released in January 2023 (US Census Bureau). To retrieve the data, under the \"Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report\" section, select \"Time Series\/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series.\" Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select \"Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services,\" (2) set Start at 2021 and End at 2022, (3) select \"44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas,\" (4) select \"Sales - Monthly,\" (5) select \"U.S. Total,\" and leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked. As of 29 June 2022, the Bureau reported combined sales for November and December 2021 of 923,537 (millions of dollars).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by 5.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by more than 2.5% but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"Higher by 7.5% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"}},"choices":["Lower by 5.0% or more","Lower by more than 2.5% but less than 5.0%","Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive","Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%","Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%","Higher by 7.5% or more"],"target":"Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%"}
{"Question":"What will be the percentage increase in the producer price index (PPI) for \"Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses\" for December 2022 as compared to December 2021?","Started_time":"2022-03-30","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The market for self-storage space is continuing to expand, even in the face of rising inflation across the economy (REjournals). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Self-Service Storage and Miniwarehouses, Gross Rents\" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2023 (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5.0% and 8.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 8.0% but less than 12.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 12.0% and 15.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"More than 15.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"}},"choices":["Less than 5.0%","Between 5.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","More than 8.0% but less than 12.0%","Between 12.0% and 15.0%, inclusive","More than 15.0%"],"target":"Between 12.0% and 15.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the annual rate of inflation in the European Union reach or exceed 4.0% in December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-25","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Inflation is rising around the world, and the European Union is no exception (IMF, National World). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the EU, as first reported by Eurostat for \"European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)\" (Eurostat). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for November 2021 (2021M11) was 5.2%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2022?","Started_time":"2022-08-26","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"As China continues to deal with COVID outbreaks and a distressed property market, its economic growth has slowed (CNBC, Al Jazeera, Guardian). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as first reported by Trading Economics, expected in January 2023 (Trading Economics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 0.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"More than 2.0% but less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"More than 6.0% but less than 8.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"8.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 0.0%","Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive","More than 2.0% but less than 4.0%","Between 4.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","More than 6.0% but less than 8.0%","8.0% or more"],"target":"More than 2.0% but less than 4.0%"}
{"Question":"How many business applications will be made in the US in 2022?","Started_time":"2021-09-17","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of business applications were made in 2020 (CBS News, Bloomberg, Economic Innovation Group). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (Census Bureau, parameters are set with the link, Census Bureau - Business Formation Statistics Methodology).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 4.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 4.2 million and 4.8 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"Between 5.4 million and 6.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 4.2 million","Between 4.2 million and 4.8 million, inclusive","More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million","Between 5.4 million and 6.0 million, inclusive","More than 6.0 million"],"target":"More than 4.8 million but fewer than 5.4 million"}
{"Question":"Before 15 January 2023, will federal legislation that would force the social media app TikTok to cease operating in the US become law?","Started_time":"2022-12-16","Closed_time":"2023-01-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment","Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"Amid continuing concerns that TikTok could be used by the Chinese government to spy on Americans, a bill was introduced in Congress that would effectively ban the app from being used in the US (US News & World Report, Rubio.Senate.gov, The Week). The date the legislation would take effect would be immaterial, and the exact duration of TikTok not being able to operate in the US would be immaterial. The legislation need not explicitly name TikTok to count so long as the legislation's applicability to TikTok is clear.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.45%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.55%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"US inflation hit multi-decade highs in early 2022, due to various factors including monetary policy, supply chain issues, and consequences from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (AP, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"All items\" in January 2023 (BLS). For December 2021, the change was 7.0%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 3.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 3.5% and 5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher than 5.0% but lower than 6.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Higher than 8.0% but lower than 9.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"9.5% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 3.5%","Between 3.5% and 5.0%, inclusive","Higher than 5.0% but lower than 6.5%","Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive","Higher than 8.0% but lower than 9.5%","9.5% or higher"],"target":"Between 6.5% and 8.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","Started_time":"2020-05-22","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years (NHTSA, U.S. News). For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list (OICA). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3 or more"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will a ride-hailing service open to the public which uses autonomous vehicles be launched and\/or tested on public roads in Dubai?","Started_time":"2021-10-01","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Dubai aims to be a leading location in the deployment of autonomous vehicles and has an agreement with Cruise for the deployment of a ride-hailing service by 2023, though testing may start sooner (Khaleej Times, CNBC, Khaleej Times). Testing must include members of the public as passengers to count. A service that operates along a fixed route (e.g., shuttles) would not count. A service involving back-up drivers present in the vehicle would not count, but a service involving remote back-up operators would count. A qualifying service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use would count, and payment for service is not required.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18.06%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81.94%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2023 College Football Playoff national championship?","Started_time":"2022-12-09","Closed_time":"2023-01-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The two semifinal games are scheduled for 31 December 2021, and the national championship game is scheduled for 9  January 2022 in Inglewood, California (NCAA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Georgia Bulldogs":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"Michigan Wolverines":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ohio State Buckeyes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Texas Christian University (TCU) Horned Frogs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"}},"choices":["Georgia Bulldogs","Michigan Wolverines","Ohio State Buckeyes","Texas Christian University (TCU) Horned Frogs"],"target":"Georgia Bulldogs"}
{"Question":"Will Greece or Turkey publicly accuse the other of using a weapon against its national military, militia, and\/or law enforcement forces before 29 April 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2023-01-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Tensions are high between the historical rivals and NATO members over various territorial claims in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas (Voice of America, Al Jazeera, Yahoo News). For the purposes of this question, drones may be considered part of \"forces\" if so claimed by the accusing party's forces. Accusations of \"warning shots\" being fired would count. An accusation of a vessel or aircraft deliberately ramming another would count, but accidental collisions would not. Cyberattacks would not count. Both the accused use and the accusation must occur during the question's open period to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","Started_time":"2020-08-21","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX (Digital Trends, The Verge, Teslarati, Inverse). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https:\/\/ir.tesla.com\/financial-information\/quarterly-results.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 25,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 250,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 25,000","Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive","More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000","Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive","More than 250,000"],"target":"Fewer than 25,000"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","Started_time":"2020-08-14","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles (Car and Driver, Electrek. Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet (Road\/Show, Digital Trends). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: CNBC, Axios. For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list (OICA). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1 or 2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"3 or 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"5 or 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"7 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1 or 2","3 or 4","5 or 6","7 or more"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and\/or for a public ride-hailing service?","Started_time":"2020-08-14","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion (CNBC, Forbes). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries (Amazon, India Times, Forbes). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"}},"choices":["Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service","Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package","Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","Started_time":"2020-06-16","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","US Politics"],"Description":"Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and\/or use of AVs (The Hill,\u00a0Federation of American Scientists,\u00a0Congress.gov (House Bill),\u00a0Congress.gov (Senate Bill)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" (The Hill,\u00a0Legal Reader). The date the law and\/or standards would take effect is immaterial.This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","Started_time":"2020-07-10","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve (Ars Technica,\u00a0ABC News,\u00a0NY Times,\u00a0Centre for International Governance Innovation). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.This question is the longer-term companion of question\u00a0#1695. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, a firm":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Yes, a paid backup driver":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Yes, both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"}},"choices":["Yes, a firm","Yes, a paid backup driver","Yes, both","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will single-use plastic bags be banned in all of the UAE before 8 January 2023?","Started_time":"2021-09-24","Closed_time":"2023-01-08","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2023","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Environment","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the two largest of the emirates that make up the UAE, have considered bans on various single-use plastic products, including bags (Gulf Business, Arabian Business, Euronews). A ban imposed either by the UAE government or all seven individual emirate governments would count. The ban must take effect during the question's open period to count. A ban with limited exceptions (e.g., medical uses) would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.61%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.39%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2023, will the People's Republic of China (PRC) cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine?","Started_time":"2022-11-04","Closed_time":"2023-01-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"While Hong Kong lifted its compulsory quarantine requirement for travelers outside of China in September 2022, such requirements remain for travelers to the PRC mainland (Government of Hong Kong, US Embassy in China, US News & World Report, CNN). For the purposes of this question, \"outside of China\" means anywhere other than the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan. The general removal of the requirements with exceptions would count so long as travel from at least six G7 nations is permitted without quarantine (Canada G7). An announcement that the PRC will cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine at some future date after 30 June 2023 would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.06%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.94%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will next be elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives?","Started_time":"2023-01-05","Closed_time":"2023-01-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"As of late afternoon on 4 January 2023, the House of Representatives has held six votes to elect a Speaker of the House, which is necessary before other House business may proceed (BBC, The Hill). If a Speaker of the House is elected on 4 January 2023 (PT), the question will be voided.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Hakeem Jeffries":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Jim Jordan":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Kevin McCarthy":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Steve Scalise":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"No one will be elected Speaker of the House of Representatives before 21 January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Hakeem Jeffries","Jim Jordan","Kevin McCarthy","Steve Scalise","Someone else","No one will be elected Speaker of the House of Representatives before 21 January 2023"],"target":"Kevin McCarthy"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the AFC North division in the 2022 season?","Started_time":"2022-09-02","Closed_time":"2023-01-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Baltimore Ravens":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Cincinnati Bengals":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"Cleveland Browns":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pittsburgh Steelers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Baltimore Ravens","Cincinnati Bengals","Cleveland Browns","Pittsburgh Steelers"],"target":"Cincinnati Bengals"}
{"Question":"Between 18 March 2022 and 30 December 2022, what will be the highest four-week average of US field production of crude oil?","Started_time":"2022-03-11","Closed_time":"2022-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Oil prices have seen new multiyear highs amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which may incentivize US producers to increase production (The Hill, Valley News Live). The outcome will be determined using the \"4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil\" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA). A weekly figure must have its \"End Date\" between 18 March 2022 and 30 December 2022 to count. On 16 February 2022, before Russia's invasion, the EIA forecasted domestic production would increase to 12.0 million barrels per day in 2022 (EIA - Today in Energy).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 11,800 thousand b\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 11,800 and 12,200 thousand b\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"More than 12,200 but less than 12,600 thousand b\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 12,600 and 13,000 thousand b\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 13,000 thousand b\/d but less than 13,400 thousand b\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"13,400 thousand b\/d or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 11,800 thousand b\/d","Between 11,800 and 12,200 thousand b\/d, inclusive","More than 12,200 but less than 12,600 thousand b\/d","Between 12,600 and 13,000 thousand b\/d, inclusive","More than 13,000 thousand b\/d but less than 13,400 thousand b\/d","13,400 thousand b\/d or more"],"target":"Between 11,800 and 12,200 thousand b\/d, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2022, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?","Started_time":"2021-12-13","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the \"Year to date\" data table for all of 2022 from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in January 2023, typically on the fourth working day of the month (SMMT - Car Registrations, SMMT). For example, as of November 2021, 163,022 Battery Electric Vehicles were registered in the UK in 2021 (SMMT - News 6 December 2021).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 150,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"69%"},"More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"350,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 150,000","Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive","More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000","Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive","More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000","350,000 or more"],"target":"Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 16 September 2022 and 31 December 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 1,000 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights?","Started_time":"2022-10-14","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Widespread protests have broken out in Iran after a woman who was arrested for breaking hijab rules died in police custody (NPR, Al-Monitor, CBS News). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. As of 12 October 2022, Iran Human Rights reported that 201 protesters had been killed (Iran Human Rights). The outcome will be determined using available information no later than 4 January 2023.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.47%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.53%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 30 December 2022, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","Started_time":"2022-01-28","Closed_time":"2022-12-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company, though Microsoft briefly held the title in 2021 (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by the Companies Market Cap website on 30 December 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET (Companies Market Cap).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, the most valuable in the world":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"No, but the most valuable in the United States":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Yes, the most valuable in the world","No, but the most valuable in the United States","No"],"target":"Yes, the most valuable in the world"}
{"Question":"Will Apple's end-of-day closing market capitalization reach or exceed $3 trillion before 31 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-08-19","Closed_time":"2022-12-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Apple, one of the largest publicly traded companies in the world, briefly hit $3 trillion in market capitalization in January 2022 during intraday trading, but has never closed at that level (CNBC, Investopedia - Market Capitalization). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Companies Market Cap website (Companies Market Cap).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.03%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.97%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 31 December 2022, what will be the upper limit of the US federal funds target range?","Started_time":"2022-05-27","Closed_time":"2022-12-31","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The Federal Reserve has begun tightening monetary policy as the US faces historic levels of inflation (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, Federal Reserve). As of Friday 27 May 2022, the upper limit of the US federal funds target range was 1.00%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 1.75":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.75 and 2.25, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher than 2.25 but lower than 3.25":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 3.25 and 3.75, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 3.75":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"}},"choices":["Lower than 1.75","Between 1.75 and 2.25, inclusive","Higher than 2.25 but lower than 3.25","Between 3.25 and 3.75, inclusive","Higher than 3.75"],"target":"Higher than 3.75"}
{"Question":"Between 30 October 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?","Started_time":"2021-10-29","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 (BBC, Reuters, EUR-Lex, European Commission). The imposition of  restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals  under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.49%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.51%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on the NYSE and\/or NASDAQ stock exchanges before 31 December 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-08","Closed_time":"2022-12-30","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology","Society","US Policy"],"Description":"While cryptocurrency ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, attempts to create a crypto ETF in the US continue (The Block, CP24, MarketWatch). ETFs for cryptocurrency derivatives (e.g., futures) or of firms that have cryptocurrency exposure would not count. Whether an ETF includes one or several cryptocurrencies would be immaterial, but stablecoins and\/or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would not count (Investopedia - Stablecoin, Investopedia - CBDC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.48%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.52%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","Started_time":"2021-07-21","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Amazon is facing continued antitrust scrutiny in 2021, and there have been calls for it, among other things, to spin off its cloud computing platform, AWS (WBUR, Protocol, Business Insider, Investopedia). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.75%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.25%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office officially change its name to include the word Taiwan?","Started_time":"2021-09-30","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"Recent media reporting indicates discussions regarding the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the US potentially changing its name to \"Taiwan Representative Office\" (Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States, Financial Times, CGTN, Council on Foreign Relations).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.07%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.93%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","Started_time":"2020-07-02","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes (MY EV). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET (Alternative Fuels Data Center). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the \"Advanced Filters\" tab.\u00a0 First select \"Location\" on the left and set \"Country\" to be \"United States\" while keeping \"State\/Territory\" to be \"All.\" Then select \"Fuel\" on the left. Under \"Filter by Fuel Type\" select \"Electric\" and set \"Charger types\" to be only \"DC Fast\" while keeping \"Connectors\" and \"Networks\" to be \"All.\"This question is the longer-term companion of question #1677.\u00a0The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 5,300":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6,500":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 5,300","Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive","More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100","Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive","More than 6,500"],"target":"More than 6,500"}
{"Question":"What will voter turnout be in the 2022 US midterm elections?","Started_time":"2022-05-06","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Turnout will be a major factor in the outcome of the 2022 midterm elections (The Hill, Politico). Over the past 40 years, the highest turnout in midterm elections was 49.4%, and the lowest was in 2014 with 36.0%. The outcome will be determined by data from the United States Elections Project (United States Elections Project). The data will be linked as \"General\" next to \"2022\" and found under the \"VEP Highest Office\" (title may vary) column for \"United States,\" typically in the first row (United States Elections Project - Numerator, United States Elections Project - Denominator). The outcome will be determined using the data available as of 31 December 2022. If no data are available on 31 December 2022, the outcome will be determined using data when first available.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 36.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 36.0% and 40.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 40.0% but less than 44.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"52.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"}},"choices":["Less than 36.0%","Between 36.0% and 40.0%, inclusive","More than 40.0% but less than 44.0%","Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive","More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%","52.0% or more"],"target":"Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will China and\/or a host country officially announce an agreement for the establishment of a Chinese military base in an African country besides Djibouti?","Started_time":"2021-10-29","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"China's only military base in Africa is in the country of Djibouti, but it is looking at possible bases in other African countries (Diplomat, AP). Military bases for civilian or mixed-use military and civilian purposes would count (Reuters). Public disclosure of ongoing negotiations would not be sufficient to resolve the question as \"yes\" (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.09%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.91%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed?","Started_time":"2021-10-29","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"China and the GCC began negotiations for a free trade agreement in 2005 (China Ministry of Commerce, Atlantic Council, ANI News, GCC). The signing of an FTA or the announcement of an agreement in principle (see EU-Mercosur announcement) would count, and ratification would be immaterial (e.g., New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.08%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.92%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of landing military personnel on the Pratas Islands without authorization?","Started_time":"2021-11-19","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Taiwan has raised concerns regarding potential actions by the People's Republic of China in the Pratas Islands (News.com.au, Bloomberg, Diplomat).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.27%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91.73%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Finland and\/or Sweden become members of NATO before 1 January 2023?","Started_time":"2022-05-27","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 18 May 2022, the countries of Finland and Sweden both submitted applications to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), though Turkey has raised some objections (NATO, CNBC, Al Jazeera).  The latest country to join NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020 (NATO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, Finland only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, Sweden only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, both Finland and Sweden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"}},"choices":["Yes, Finland only","Yes, Sweden only","Yes, both Finland and Sweden","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will the US officially rejoin the JCPOA?","Started_time":"2022-01-14","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Obstacles standing in the way of the US rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current US sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (Council on Foreign Relations, Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty, Arms Control Association, Congressional Research Service). The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.35%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.65%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2023?","Started_time":"2022-02-26","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has received broad international condemnation (Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.52%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.48%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?","Started_time":"2022-01-21","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid high tensions between Russia and the West regarding Ukraine and other matters, gas giant Gazprom is awaiting regulatory approval to begin delivering natural gas to Germany through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty, Politico.eu, S&P Global). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.43%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.57%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will the US Senate independently expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","Started_time":"2022-01-21","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"After using a legislative workaround to bypass the 60-vote requirement for an increase in the debt ceiling, Democrats are struggling to find other ways to bypass the filibuster (CNN, The Hill). A change requiring action outside of the Senate (e.g., congressional legislation) would not count (e.g., Senate Bill 610).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.40%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.60%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Afghanistan in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-01-28","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"War and drought have left millions in Afghanistan facing potential famine (Guardian, NBC News, IPC). For general information on how famines are declared, see: http:\/\/www.npr.org\/sections\/goatsandsoda\/2017\/02\/23\/516642447\/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean. The reporting of famine conditions without a UN famine declaration would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.29%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86.71%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-24","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"As COVID-19 becomes less of a concern in the US, the airline industry is struggling to return to pre-pandemic operations (US News & World Report, CNBC, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (TSA). Totals for December in the previous three years were 70,250,692 in 2019; 26,417,472 in 2020; and 58,863,955 in 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 50 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 75 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 50 million","Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive","More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million","Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive","More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million","Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive","More than 75 million"],"target":"More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2023?","Started_time":"2022-06-28","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Two years after a deadly clash left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain high (Diplomat, The National, Outlook India, Al Jazeera). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.67%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.33%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 22 July 2022 and 31 December 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?","Started_time":"2022-07-22","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the \"17+1\" initiative into \"16+1\" (Taipei Times, China Daily). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (Politico, Al Jazeera). The date the withdrawal would take effect would be immaterial, and a member's withdrawal announcement that is rescinded during the question's open period would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"1 or 2":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"3 or 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1 or 2","3 or 4","5 or more"],"target":"1 or 2"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 January 2023?","Started_time":"2022-08-05","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The PRC responded to US Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which the PRC considers its sovereign territory, with condemnation and newly-announced military drills around the island nation (AP, CNN, Council on Foreign Relations). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.68%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.32%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person?","Started_time":"2022-09-16","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Russia's war in Ukraine continues, Ukrainian President Zelensky has floated the idea of meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in person (Newsweek, US News & World Report, Guardian). The meeting must be face-to-face but can occur in any venue and does not need to be bilateral to count. An acting president under the constitution of the relevant country would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.93%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.07%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a railroad union strike in the United States in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Twelve labor unions and dozens of railroad companies have been negotiating for new collective bargaining agreements since 2019, and there is a threat of strikes unless agreements are reached (Axios, AP, National Railway Labor Conference, CNBC). The earliest a strike could begin is November 2022 (Politico). For the purposes of this question, a strike need not include all railroad workers to count. The duration of a strike would be immaterial so long as the strike actually begins.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.04%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.96%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Lebanon's parliament, the Chamber of Deputies, elect a new President of the Republic before 1 January 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-04","Closed_time":"2023-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Chamber of Deputies has yet to form a new government or elect a new President of the Republic since delayed elections were held in May 2022, and President Michel Aoun left office at the expiration of his term in October 2022 (AP, France24, Arab News). The question would close \"No\" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new president having been elected. Replacement of the president by means other than election by the Chamber of Deputies would not count (Constitution of Lebanon).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.40%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.60%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for the US 10 yr Treasury on 30 December 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-01","Closed_time":"2022-12-30","Challenges_list":["Man Group\u2019s Good Question Challenge 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC). As of 28 September 2021, the yield was 1.539%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 0% and 1%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 1% but lower than 2%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 2% and 3%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Higher than 3% but lower than 4%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"4% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"}},"choices":["Lower than 0%","Between 0% and 1%, inclusive","Higher than 1% but lower than 2%","Between 2% and 3%, inclusive","Higher than 3% but lower than 4%","4% or higher"],"target":"Higher than 3% but lower than 4%"}
{"Question":"Will employees at Amazon's Bessemer, Alabama, warehouse vote in the affirmative to unionize in their next scheduled election?","Started_time":"2022-01-14","Closed_time":"2022-03-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In early January, the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) announced a new unionization vote for workers at an Amazon warehouse in Alabama, with ballots due by 25 March 2022 and counting scheduled for 28 March 2022 (CNBC, The Verge).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-17","Closed_time":"2022-12-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Rising demand, supply chain problems, and Russian supplies limited by the war in Ukraine have pushed US natural gas prices to multiyear highs (Natural Gas Intelligence, BBC, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 22 December 2022 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 4.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 4.00 and 5.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"More than 5.50 but less than 7.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than 8.50 but less than 10.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 10.00 and 11.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 11.50 but less than 13.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13.00 and 14.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 14.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 4.00","Between 4.00 and 5.50, inclusive","More than 5.50 but less than 7.00","Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive","More than 8.50 but less than 10.00","Between 10.00 and 11.50, inclusive","More than 11.50 but less than 13.00","Between 13.00 and 14.50, inclusive","More than 14.50"],"target":"Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Ranil Wickremesinghe cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 29 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-07-29","Closed_time":"2022-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Economic Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka and resigned his office amid widespread economic protests, the Parliament of Sri Lanka elected former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to serve out the remainder of Rajapaksa's term (France 24, Voice of America).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.62%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.38%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will US real GDP contract in both the third quarter (Q3) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-08","Closed_time":"2022-10-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"High inflation, monetary tightening, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have raised concerns over economic growth in the US this year (CNBC, CNN, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data for Q3 and Q4 of 2022 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database upon the release of the BEA\u2019s third estimate for Q4 2022 (FRED, BEA). The question would close \"No\" if the third estimate for Q3 2022 indicates no US real GDP contraction.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37.02%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62.98%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 16 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-24","Closed_time":"2022-12-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As the ECB moves to change course on monetary policy, government bond yields in southern Europe have jumped (MarketWatch, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using \"Italy-Germany 10 Year Bond Spread\" data as reported by YCharts for 16 December 2022 (YCharts).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.00% and 1.50%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.50% but less than 2.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.00% and 3.50%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.50%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.00%","Between 1.00% and 1.50%, inclusive","More than 1.50% but less than 2.00%","Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive","More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%","Between 3.00% and 3.50%, inclusive","More than 3.50%"],"target":"Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PA) announce an increase in bridge and\/or tunnel tolls for Class 1 vehicles for 2022 or 2023?","Started_time":"2022-02-18","Closed_time":"2022-12-15","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"The PA is responsible for managing transportation infrastructure in the New York City area, including bridges and tunnels (Port Authority, Port Authority - Bridge and Tunnels FAQ, Syracuse.com). As of the launch of this question, the tolls for Class 1 vehicles were $11.75 for EZ Pass Off-peak, $13.75 for EZ Pass On-peak, and $16.00 for cash (Port Authority - Bridge and Tunnels Tolls). To count, an announced increase must be scheduled to take effect before 1 January 2024.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 19 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2022-12-19","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ABC News, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for \"Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices\" (EIA, see table).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"More than 3.400 but less than 3.800":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Between 3.800 and 4.200, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 4.200 but less than 4.600":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 5.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.000","Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive","More than 3.400 but less than 3.800","Between 3.800 and 4.200, inclusive","More than 4.200 but less than 4.600","Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive","More than 5.000"],"target":"Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Avatar: The Way of Water, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2022-12-02","Closed_time":"2022-12-17","Challenges_list":["Nonrival Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"Avatar: The Way of Water is the first sequel to the 2009 blockbuster Avatar (IMDb - Avatar). The question will be suspended on 16 December 2022 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 16-18 December 2022 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 16 December 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $100 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"More than $150 million but less than $200 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Between $200 million and $250 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"More than $250 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than $100 million","Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive","More than $150 million but less than $200 million","Between $200 million and $250 million, inclusive","More than $250 million"],"target":"Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the NFC West division in the 2022 season?","Started_time":"2022-09-02","Closed_time":"2022-12-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Arizona Cardinals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Los Angeles Rams":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"San Francisco 49ers":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"Seattle Seahawks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Arizona Cardinals","Los Angeles Rams","San Francisco 49ers","Seattle Seahawks"],"target":"San Francisco 49ers"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the AFC West division in the 2022 season?","Started_time":"2022-09-02","Closed_time":"2022-12-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Denver Broncos":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Kansas City Chiefs":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"Las Vegas Raiders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Los Angeles Chargers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Denver Broncos","Kansas City Chiefs","Las Vegas Raiders","Los Angeles Chargers"],"target":"Kansas City Chiefs"}
{"Question":"Which country will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?","Started_time":"2022-05-13","Closed_time":"2022-12-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2022 Men's FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Qatar from 21 November 2022 to 18 December 2022 (FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022). Thirty-two teams will qualify to compete (FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 - Final Draw\/Groups).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Argentina":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Belgium":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Brazil":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"England":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"France":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Germany":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Netherlands":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Portugal":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Spain":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"No country will win the World Cup in 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Argentina","Belgium","Brazil","England","France","Germany","Netherlands","Portugal","Spain","Another country","No country will win the World Cup in 2022"],"target":"Argentina"}
{"Question":"Before 17 December 2022, will Saudi Arabia publicly announce that it will begin accepting yuan as payment for oil from China?","Started_time":"2022-04-01","Closed_time":"2022-12-17","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Saudi Arabia and the People's Republic of China are reportedly discussing the use of Chinese yuan as payment for Saudi oil (Wall Street Journal, The Hill, Al-Monitor). The question would close upon a public announcement from Saudi Arabia. An announcement would not have to indicate that Saudi Arabia would exclusively accept yuan for payment. The date any agreement to accept payment in yuan would take effect is immaterial, but conditional and\/or indeterminate announcements (e.g., if conditionals are met in the future, at some point in the future) would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.94%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.06%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the US dollar\/Japanese yen exchange rate on 16 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-17","Closed_time":"2022-12-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As US and Japanese monetary policy strategies diverge, the yen has hit multi-decade lows against the dollar (France 24, Yahoo! Finance, Wall Street Journal). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 100.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 100.00 and 110.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 110.00 but lower than 120.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 120.00 and 130.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher than 130.00 but lower than 140.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Between 140.00 and 150.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher than 150.00 but lower than 160.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"160.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 100.00","Between 100.00 and 110.00, inclusive","Higher than 110.00 but lower than 120.00","Between 120.00 and 130.00, inclusive","Higher than 130.00 but lower than 140.00","Between 140.00 and 150.00, inclusive","Higher than 150.00 but lower than 160.00","160.00 or more"],"target":"Higher than 130.00 but lower than 140.00"}
{"Question":"What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate at close of business on 15 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-08-19","Closed_time":"2022-12-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As the UK grapples with inflation like much of the world, the Bank of England increased its benchmark Bank Rate by 0.5% in August 2022, the largest increase since 1997 (CNBC, Guardian). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate, and raised it to 1.75% at its August 2022 meeting (Bank of England - Bank Rate, Bank of England - August 2022 MPC Minutes). The MPC is scheduled to meet on 15 September 2022, 3 November 2022, and 15 December 2022 (Bank of England - MPC Schedule).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.00% and 2.25%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.25% but less than 3.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 3.00% and 3.25%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 3.25%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.00%","Between 2.00% and 2.25%, inclusive","More than 2.25% but less than 3.00%","Between 3.00% and 3.25%, inclusive","More than 3.25%"],"target":"More than 3.25%"}
{"Question":"How far will France advance in the FIFA World Cup 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-03","Closed_time":"2022-12-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2022 Men's FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Qatar from 21 November 2022 to 18 December 2022, where France will try for its second consecutive championship (FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022). Thirty-two teams will qualify to compete, with France in Group D (FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 - Final Draw\/Groups, FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 - Match Schedule). If the 2022 World Cup is canceled or postponed beyond 2022, the question would be voided.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Group Stage":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Round of 16":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Quarterfinals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Finals (1st or 2nd Place)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"}},"choices":["Group Stage","Round of 16","Quarterfinals","Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)","Finals (1st or 2nd Place)"],"target":"Finals (1st or 2nd Place)"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 14 December 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 2 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-07-29","Closed_time":"2022-12-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 13-14 December 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"What will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for \"Food\" in November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-27","Closed_time":"2022-12-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Food prices in the US and around the world are rising quickly due to various factors, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine (NY Post, USDA Economic Research Service). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2022 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Food,\" expected in December 2022 (BLS, select \"Food\"). For November 2021, the change was 6.1%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5.0% and 7.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 7.5% but less than 10.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 10.0% and 12.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"More than 12.5% but less than 15.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"15.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 5.0%","Between 5.0% and 7.5%, inclusive","More than 7.5% but less than 10.0%","Between 10.0% and 12.5%, inclusive","More than 12.5% but less than 15.0%","15.0% or more"],"target":"Between 10.0% and 12.5%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 11 March 2023, will American basketball player Brittney Griner leave Russia?","Started_time":"2022-11-11","Closed_time":"2022-12-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, the US is reportedly negotiating for the release of Brittney Griner and other Americans imprisoned in Russia (ABC News, ESPN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28.62%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"71.38%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Pedro Castillo cease to be the president of the Peru before 1 January 2024?","Started_time":"2022-11-11","Closed_time":"2022-12-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Left-wing President Jos\u00e9 Pedro Castillo Terrones won a close election in 2021 and has faced various challenges while in office (AP, US News & World Report, Voice of America).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61.10%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38.90%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the US Senate election for Georgia in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-18","Closed_time":"2022-12-06","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With the US Senate evenly divided going into the 2022 elections, the GOP is defending 20 seats while Democrats are defending 14 this November (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"How far will the United States advance in the FIFA World Cup 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-13","Closed_time":"2022-12-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2022 Men's FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Qatar from 21 November 2022 to 18 December 2022 (FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022). Thirty-two teams will qualify to compete, with the US in Group B (FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 - Final Draw\/Groups, FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 - Match Schedule). If the 2022 World Cup is canceled or postponed beyond 2022, the question would be voided.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Group Stage":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Round of 16":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Quarterfinals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Finals (1st or 2nd Place)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Group Stage","Round of 16","Quarterfinals","Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)","Finals (1st or 2nd Place)"],"target":"Round of 16"}
{"Question":"What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 2 December 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?","Started_time":"2022-06-24","Closed_time":"2022-12-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The cryptocurrency market has been hit hard in the second quarter of 2022 (NPR, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 2 December 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" (CoinMarketCap, set \"Zoom\" to \"7d\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $400 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $400 billion and $800 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than $800 billion but less than $1.2 trillion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"Between $1.2 trillion and $1.6 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $1.6 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.0 trillion and $2.4 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $2.4 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $400 billion","Between $400 billion and $800 billion, inclusive","More than $800 billion but less than $1.2 trillion","Between $1.2 trillion and $1.6 trillion, inclusive","More than $1.6 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion","Between $2.0 trillion and $2.4 trillion, inclusive","More than $2.4 trillion"],"target":"More than $800 billion but less than $1.2 trillion"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the Green Markets Weekly North American Fertilizer Price Index for the week from 2 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-01","Closed_time":"2022-12-02","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Fertilizer costs in the US have skyrocketed to historic highs in recent months (Farm Bureau, CNBC, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Green Markets (Green Markets).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 700.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 700.00 and 900.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"More than 900.00 but less than 1,100.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 1,100.00 and 1,300.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 1,300.00 but less than 1,500.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,500.00 and 1,700.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,700.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 700.00","Between 700.00 and 900.00, inclusive","More than 900.00 but less than 1,100.00","Between 1,100.00 and 1,300.00, inclusive","More than 1,300.00 but less than 1,500.00","Between 1,500.00 and 1,700.00, inclusive","More than 1,700.00"],"target":"Between 700.00 and 900.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2022 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?","Started_time":"2022-05-06","Closed_time":"2022-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"Researchers at Colorado State University have predicted an \"above-normal\" Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2022 to 30 November 2022  (NPR, CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2022 and the outcome determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center no later than 16 December 2022 (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"3 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4 and 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 7 and 9":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Between 10 and 12":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 13 and 15":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"16 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["3 or fewer","Between 4 and 6","Between 7 and 9","Between 10 and 12","Between 13 and 15","16 or more"],"target":"Between 7 and 9"}
{"Question":"Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2022-12-01","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"After launching an ICBM for the first time since 2017, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (AP, CNN). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.38%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.62%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-08-26","Closed_time":"2022-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a \"hard border\" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (BBC, CNBC, Guardian). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland\/Northern Ireland).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.29%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.71%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 December 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","Started_time":"2022-01-21","Closed_time":"2022-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Tensions between the US and Iran remain high (NBC News, Guardian). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.63%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.37%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2022-11-30","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","US Policy"],"Description":"A slew of factors, including inflation, interest rates, and the war in Ukraine, have pushed equities down from record highs at the beginning of the year (Investing.com, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3,900":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Between 3,900 and 4,175, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"More than 4,175 but less than 4,450":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 4,450 and 4,725, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4,725 but less than 5,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3,900","Between 3,900 and 4,175, inclusive","More than 4,175 but less than 4,450","Between 4,450 and 4,725, inclusive","More than 4,725 but less than 5,000","5,000 or more"],"target":"Between 3,900 and 4,175, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 8.50% before 1 December 2022?","Started_time":"2022-07-01","Closed_time":"2022-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"As central banks increase interest rates amid recession fears, borrowing costs for \"high-yield\" bonds (aka junk bonds) could continue to rise (NASDAQ, Yahoo!, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread\" (FRED). For 29 June 2022, the spread was 5.62%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.18%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.82%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the price of Bitcoin on 30 November 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-23","Closed_time":"2022-11-30","Challenges_list":["Man Group\u2019s Good Question Challenge 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 30 November 2022 (PT) as reported by Coindesk.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $30,000.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Between $30,000.00 and $50,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than $50,000.00 but less than $70,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $70,000.00 and $90,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $90,000.00 but less than $110,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$110,000.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $30,000.00","Between $30,000.00 and $50,000.00, inclusive","More than $50,000.00 but less than $70,000.00","Between $70,000.00 and $90,000.00, inclusive","More than $90,000.00 but less than $110,000.00","$110,000.00 or more"],"target":"Less than $30,000.00"}
{"Question":"Before 1 December 2022, will the Women's Tennis Association (WTA) announce the lifting of its suspension of WTA tournaments in China and Hong Kong?","Started_time":"2021-12-17","Closed_time":"2022-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Sports","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"After tennis star Peng Shuai accused a high-ranking Chinese political official of sexual assault on social media and was subsequently hidden from public view, the WTA announced the immediate suspension of all WTA tournaments in China, including Hong Kong, in concern for her safety (NPR, WTA, ESPN). When the lifting of the suspension would take effect is immaterial, and a partial lifting would count. For the purposes of this question, Macau is considered a part of China.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.53%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.47%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?","Started_time":"2022-03-18","Closed_time":"2022-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Talks between Russia and Ukraine are underway (CNBC, AP). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Ukraine. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 June 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2022 and 30 November 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 December 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 1 June 2022","Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022","Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022","Between 1 October 2022 and 30 November 2022","Not before 1 December 2022"],"target":"Not before 1 December 2022"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the vote will the Republican candidate win in the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?","Started_time":"2022-07-29","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott is set to face Democratic former US Representative Beto O'Rourke in the 2022 gubernatorial election (The Hill, Texas Tribune, FiveThirtyEight).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"50.0% or less and will not win the election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"50.0% or less but will win the election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"55.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"}},"choices":["50.0% or less and will not win the election","50.0% or less but will win the election","More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%","55.0% or more"],"target":"More than 50.0% but less than 55.0%"}
{"Question":"Which of the following major cryptocurrencies will perform best between 19 May 2022 and 29 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-20","Closed_time":"2022-11-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology","The outcome will be determined by data from CoinDesk, using the \"1y\" chart, by dividing the price dated 29 November 2022 (PT) by the price dated 19 May 2022 (PT), which can be found here:","Bitcoin (CoinDesk - Bitcoin): $30,280.67","Cardano (Ada) (CoinDesk - Ada): $0.532500","Ethereum (CoinDesk - Ethereum): $2,017.27","Solana (CoinDesk - Solana): $52.12","XRP (Ripple) (CoinDesk - XRP): $0.414390"],"Description":"In the event of an apparent tie, the question will close on the cryptocurrency with the larger market cap.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Bitcoin":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Cardano (Ada)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Ethereum":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Solana":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"XRP (Ripple)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"}},"choices":["Bitcoin","Cardano (Ada)","Ethereum","Solana","XRP (Ripple)"],"target":"XRP (Ripple)"}
{"Question":"How many total confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in the US through 18 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-08-19","Closed_time":"2022-11-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","US Policy"],"Description":"On 4 August 2022, the US declared the ongoing outbreak of monkeypox infections a public health emergency (NPR). The question will be suspended on 18 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Our World in Data through and including 18 November 2022 (Our World in Data). As of 17 August 2022, there were 13,452 confirmed cases of monkeypox in the US.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 25,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 25,000 and 40,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 40,000 but fewer than 55,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 55,000 and 70,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 70,000 but fewer than 85,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 85,000 and 100,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 100,000 but fewer than 115,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 115,000 and 130,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 130,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 25,000","Between 25,000 and 40,000, inclusive","More than 40,000 but fewer than 55,000","Between 55,000 and 70,000, inclusive","More than 70,000 but fewer than 85,000","Between 85,000 and 100,000 inclusive","More than 100,000 but fewer than 115,000","Between 115,000 and 130,000, inclusive","More than 130,000"],"target":"Between 25,000 and 40,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-10-24","Closed_time":"2022-11-24","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 23 November 2022 and the outcome determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 24 October 2022 through and including 23 November 2022 (https:\/\/github.com\/CSSEGISandData\/COVID-19\/blob\/master\/csse_covid_19_data\/csse_covid_19_time_series\/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv, right-click on the \u201cDownload\u201d button for options to save the text file of data to your computer). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 23 October 2022 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 23 November 2022 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 28 November 2022. As of the launch of this question, the total number of new cases of COVID-19 between 24 October 2021 and 23 November 2021 was reported as 2,513,325. If the named source changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 500,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 500,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,500,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"Between 1,500,000 and 2,250,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 2,250,000 but fewer than 3,250,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 3,250,000 and 4,750,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 4,750,000 but fewer than 6,500,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6,500,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 500,000","Between 500,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive","More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,500,000","Between 1,500,000 and 2,250,000, inclusive","More than 2,250,000 but fewer than 3,250,000","Between 3,250,000 and 4,750,000, inclusive","More than 4,750,000 but fewer than 6,500,000","6,500,000 or more"],"target":"More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,500,000"}
{"Question":"How many cumulative confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in the world as of 20 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-10-10","Closed_time":"2022-11-21","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health"],"Description":"Since early May 2022, monkeypox infections spread beyond the west and central African countries where it is endemic (Pan American Health Organization, CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 20 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data through and including 20 November 2022 as first reported by Our World in Data (OWiD) (OWiD). As of 5 October 2022, there were 70,993 cumulative confirmed cases of monkeypox in the world.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 76,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 76,000 and 88,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"More than 88,000 but fewer than 100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 100,000 and 112,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 112,000 but fewer than 124,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"124,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 76,000","Between 76,000 and 88,000, inclusive","More than 88,000 but fewer than 100,000","Between 100,000 and 112,000, inclusive","More than 112,000 but fewer than 124,000","124,000 or more"],"target":"Between 76,000 and 88,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel the People's Republic of China (PRC) and those of any other country before 28 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-09-12","Closed_time":"2022-11-28","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"China is dealing with tensions with various countries, including India, Japan, Taiwan, and the US (US News & World Report, Voice of America, Council on Foreign Relations). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement of either side. For the purposes of this question, Taiwan is considered another country.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.37%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.63%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the market capitalization of the stablecoin Tether on 27 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-27","Closed_time":"2022-11-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"In the wake of the collapse of the stablecoin TerraUSD, which was intended to be pegged to the US dollar, the largest stablecoin by market capitalization, Tether, has been hit with volatility and withdrawals (CoinDesk, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by CoinMarketCap under \"Historical Data\" for Tether (USDT) for 27 November 2022 (CoinMarketCap, see \"Market Cap\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $40 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $40 billion and $50 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $50 billion but less than $60 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $60 billion and $70 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than $70 billion but less than $80 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $80 billion and $90 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $90 billion but less than $100 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$100 billion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $40 billion","Between $40 billion and $50 billion, inclusive","More than $50 billion but less than $60 billion","Between $60 billion and $70 billion, inclusive","More than $70 billion but less than $80 billion","Between $80 billion and $90 billion, inclusive","More than $90 billion but less than $100 billion","$100 billion or more"],"target":"Between $60 billion and $70 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the city council building in Kherson, Ukraine, be under Ukrainian control on 25 November 2022, according to the Institute for the Study of War?","Started_time":"2022-10-24","Closed_time":"2022-11-25","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Fighting has been reported near the Ukrainian city of Kherson in the south of the country, which is currently under Russian occupation (AP, Politico, Al Jazeera). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW). The address is Ushakova Avenue, 37, Kherson (Ushakova prospekt 37, Kherson, Khersonska oblast, UKR), to which you can zoom on the interactive map by clicking the search button on the upper left of the screen and entering the address. Whether the building is damaged or destroyed would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.60%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.40%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2022-11-25","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Ukrainian forces have blunted Russian ambitions in its invasion of Ukraine, but the war in the country continues (CNN, Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty, Newsweek). Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible open source media reporting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.14%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.86%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many thousand tonnes (kt) of paper and paperboard will be produced globally in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-06-24","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Paper and paperboard products include newsprint, copy paper, and newspapers; multiple factors have been influencing paper production in recent years (Fastmarkets, Fisher International). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO.org). The most recent report can be obtained by selecting \"Pulp and paper capacities, 2019-2024.\" The relevant data can be found in the table titled \"PAPER AND PAPERBOARD (4)\" on page 68 under the \"Total Product\" column. In 2019, the total reported production was 333,726 thousand tonnes (kt).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 320,000 kt":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 320,000 kt and 340,000 kt, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 340,000 kt but fewer than 360,000 kt":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"360,000 kt or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"74%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 320,000 kt","Between 320,000 kt and 340,000 kt, inclusive","More than 340,000 kt but fewer than 360,000 kt","360,000 kt or more"],"target":"More than 340,000 kt but fewer than 360,000 kt"}
{"Question":"Will former Governor Sarah Palin win the general election for Alaska's At Large Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-08-19","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia). The outcome of the 2022 special election for the At Large House seat is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.88%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.12%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the pause on US federal student loan repayment be extended before 1 January 2023?","Started_time":"2022-11-18","Closed_time":"2022-11-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"As President Biden's loan forgiveness plan faces major headwinds in the courts, there is speculation that there may be a new extension of the federal student loan repayment pause, scheduled to end on 31 December 2022, which has been in effect since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (US Dept. of Education, CBS News, CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, through 30 June 2023 or earlier":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"Yes, through 1 July 2023 or later":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"}},"choices":["Yes, through 30 June 2023 or earlier","Yes, through 1 July 2023 or later","No"],"target":"Yes, through 30 June 2023 or earlier"}
{"Question":"What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 21 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-09-26","Closed_time":"2022-11-21","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Gasoline prices have fallen considerably from their June 2022 peak, but supply pressures remain (Axios, CNN, NASDAQ). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for \"Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices\" (EIA, see table).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 3.000 and 3.350, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 3.350 but less than 3.700":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 3.700 and 4.050, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"More than 4.050 but less than 4.400":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between 4.400 and 4.750, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 4.7500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.000","Between 3.000 and 3.350, inclusive","More than 3.350 but less than 3.700","Between 3.700 and 4.050, inclusive","More than 4.050 but less than 4.400","Between 4.400 and 4.750, inclusive","More than 4.7500"],"target":"Between 3.700 and 4.050, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many US House seats will Republicans win in the 2022 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2022-06-24","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The 2022 midterm elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022, when Republicans hope to regain control of the House of Representatives (Politico, FiveThirtyEight). The outcome will be determined using 2022 election results. If a Republican candidate appears on the ballot and receives the most votes, that seat would count toward the total irrespective of the incapacitation of that candidate (e.g., CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 207":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 207 and 217":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 218 and 228":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"},"Between 229 and 239":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"},"Between 240 and 250":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than 250":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 207","Between 207 and 217","Between 218 and 228","Between 229 and 239","Between 240 and 250","More than 250"],"target":"Between 218 and 228"}
{"Question":"Will the Harvard Crimson defeat the Yale Bulldogs in \"The Game\" in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-10-24","Closed_time":"2022-11-19","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 138th playing of \"The Game,\" the annual college football game between the Harvard Crimson and Yale Bulldogs, is scheduled to take place at Harvard Stadium on Saturday 19 November 2022 (Harvard Alumni). Yale leads Harvard in wins since 1875 with an all-time record of 68-61-8 (NCAA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46.86%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53.14%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which party will win control of the US House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2021-10-15","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election in 2022, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 to Win). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 (Ballotpedia). If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If control is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Democratic Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Republican Party":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"}},"choices":["Democratic Party","Republican Party"],"target":"Republican Party"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for California's 27th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-13","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected mayor of Los Angeles, California, in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-22","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Incumbent Mayor Eric Garcetti is term limited, leaving the candidate field open for  the \"voter-nominated\" (aka \"nonpartisan) top-two primary scheduled for 7 June 2022 and the general election scheduled for 8 November 2022 (Ballotpedia, CA Sec. of State - Primary Elections, Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Karen Bass":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"Rick Caruso":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"Kevin de Le\u00f3n":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Karen Bass","Rick Caruso","Kevin de Le\u00f3n","Someone else"],"target":"Karen Bass"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 14 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2022-11-14","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Oil prices are being pushed and pulled by a number of factors, from production limits and Russian sanctions to post-COVID recovery concerns (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using US Energy Information Administration data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $70.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $70.00 and $85.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than $85.00 but less than $100.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"Between $100.00 and $115.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than $115.00 but less than $130.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$130.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $70.00 per barrel","Between $70.00 and $85.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $85.00 but less than $100.00 per barrel","Between $100.00 and $115.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $115.00 but less than $130.00 per barrel","$130.00 or more"],"target":"More than $85.00 but less than $100.00 per barrel"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone in October 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-10","Closed_time":"2022-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After years of failing to reach the European Central Bank's (ECB's) inflation target of 2%, estimated November 2021 inflation figures for in the eurozone reached an all-time high in the 25 years since the data have been compiled, an annual rate of change of 4.9% (CNBC, Politico.eu, ECB). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), data used to measure consumer price inflation in the eurozone, as first reported by Eurostat for \"Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)\" (Eurostat). As of the launch of this question, the annual rate of change for October 2021 (2021M10) was 4.1%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.0% and 1.9%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.9% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.0% and 3.9%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.9% but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"5.0% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.0%","Between 1.0% and 1.9%, inclusive","More than 1.9% but less than 3.0%","Between 3.0% and 3.9%, inclusive","More than 3.9% but less than 5.0%","5.0% or more"],"target":"5.0% or more"}
{"Question":"What will be the annualized rate of US housing starts for October 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2022-11-01","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The rate of housing starts, a measure of new home construction in the US, faces an uncertain future due to rising interest rates, commodity inflation, and labor market uncertainties (CNBC, Bankrate, FOX17). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using data provided by the US Census Bureau as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for October 2021, typically in November (FRED). For October 2021, housing starts totaled 1.552 million.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1.4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64%"},"More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2.2 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1.4 million","Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million","Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive","More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million","2.2 million or more"],"target":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Arizona in 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-17","Closed_time":"2022-11-08","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 (Ballotpedia, 270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Which party will win control of the US Senate in the 2022 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2021-10-15","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As of 15 October 2021, 34 seats in the US Senate were up for election in 2022, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the Senate in the 2020 elections (270 to Win). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 (Ballotpedia). If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If control is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Democratic Party":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"Republican Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"}},"choices":["Democratic Party","Republican Party"],"target":"Democratic Party"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for New York's 22nd Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-17","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Colorado's 8th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-18","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 To Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Will NASA's Artemis 1 mission be launched successfully before 1 January 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-07","Closed_time":"2022-11-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"The Artemis system is NASA's planned means to return humans to the moon, though its maiden flight has seen delays (NASA - Artemis I, Space.com, NPR). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful core stage separation (NASA - Artemis Core Stage, The Conversation).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.93%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24.07%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the US Senate election for Nevada in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-18","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With the US Senate evenly divided going into the 2022 elections, the GOP is defending 20 seats while Democrats are defending 14 this November (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"As of 8 November 2022, how many birds in commercial and backyard flocks will have confirmations of highly pathogenic avian flu (HPAI) in 2022, according to the USDA?","Started_time":"2022-04-22","Closed_time":"2022-11-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Environment"],"Description":"HPAI outbreaks across the US have already led to the deaths of millions of commercial and \"backyard\" birds (ABC News, Farm Bureau, NPR). The question will be suspended on 8 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To download the data, first click \"Birds Affected\" in the table titled \"List of Detections by Day.\" Then click \"Download\" between \"Share\" and \"Full Screen\" in the ribbon below that table. In the new window that pops up, click \"Data.\" In the additional window that pops up, scroll to the bottom of the page and click \"Download all rows as a text file.\" Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 15 November 2022. As of 20 April 2022, the total number of birds involved in 2022 HPAI confirmations was 30,950,653.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 40 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 40 million and 50 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"More than 50 million but fewer than 70 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Between 70 million and 100 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 100 million but fewer than 150 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"150 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 40 million","Between 40 million and 50 million, inclusive","More than 50 million but fewer than 70 million","Between 70 million and 100 million, inclusive","More than 100 million but fewer than 150 million","150 million or more"],"target":"More than 50 million but fewer than 70 million"}
{"Question":"What will be the United Arab Emirates' ranking in the Global Food Security Index for 2022, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit?","Started_time":"2021-09-30","Closed_time":"2022-09-20","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2022","Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2023"],"Tags_list":["Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The UAE's ranking fell from 21st in 2019 to 42nd in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic (u.ae, Food Security Index - UAE). The outcome will be determined using data for 2022 as provided by the Global Food Security Index, expected to be released in 2023 (Food Security Index).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 55th":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 55th and 41st":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Between 40th and 26th":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"Higher than 25th":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Lower than 55th","Between 55th and 41st","Between 40th and 26th","Higher than 25th"],"target":"Higher than 25th"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Washington's 8th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-18","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Arizona's 4th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-22","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the US Senate election for Arizona in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-25","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With the US Senate evenly divided going into the 2022 elections, the GOP is defending 20 seats while Democrats are defending 14 this November (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Which cricket team will win the 2022 Men's T20 World Cup Final?","Started_time":"2022-07-15","Closed_time":"2022-11-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The International Cricket Council's (ICC's) Men's T20 World Cup in Australia is scheduled to begin 16 October 2022, with the final scheduled for 13 November 2022 (ICC Men's T20 World Cup, Britannica). If the final is canceled or postponed beyond 2022, the question would be voided.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Australia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"England":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"India":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"New Zealand":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Pakistan":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"South Africa":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Australia","England","India","New Zealand","Pakistan","South Africa","Another country"],"target":"England"}
{"Question":"Who will win the US Senate election for Wisconsin in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-22","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With the US Senate evenly divided going into the 2022 elections, the GOP is defending 20 seats while Democrats are defending 14 this November (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-13","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for New York's 19th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-17","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-25","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"74%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Illinois' 17th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-25","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Virginia's 7th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-18","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2022-11-01","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"US inflation hit multi-decade highs in early 2022, due to various factors including US monetary policy, supply chain issues, and consequences from Russia's invasion of Ukraine (AP, Investopedia - CPI, Investopedia - Core Inflation). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"All items less food and energy\" in November 2022 (BLS, select \"All items less food and energy\"). For October 2021, the change was 4.6%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 4.5% but lower than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 6.0% and 7.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"74%"},"Higher than 7.5% but lower than 9.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"9.0% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Lower than 3.0%","Between 3.0% and 4.5%, inclusive","Higher than 4.5% but lower than 6.0%","Between 6.0% and 7.5%, inclusive","Higher than 7.5% but lower than 9.0%","9.0% or higher"],"target":"Between 6.0% and 7.5%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-17","Closed_time":"2022-11-08","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 (Ballotpedia, 270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Georgia in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-04","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 (Ballotpedia, 270 to Win). The general election is scheduled for 8 November 2022, with a primary runoff set for 6 December 2022, if needed (Georgia Secretary of State).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Michigan in 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-17","Closed_time":"2022-11-08","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 (Ballotpedia, 270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the US Senate election for Pennsylvania in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-18","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With the US Senate evenly divided going into the 2022 elections, the GOP is defending 20 seats while Democrats are defending 14 this November (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the US Senate election for New Hampshire in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-07-22","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With the US Senate evenly divided going into the 2022 elections, the GOP is defending 20 seats while Democrats are defending 14 this November (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the US Senate election for Colorado in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-07-22","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With the US Senate evenly divided going into the 2022 elections, the GOP is defending 20 seats while Democrats are defending 14 this November (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Wisconsin in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-13","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are 20 Republican-held and 16 Democratic-held state gubernatorial seats up for election in 2022 (Ballotpedia, 270 to Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Will Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene be reelected for Georgia's 14th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-15","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Rep. Greene was elected to her first term in 2020 and is expected to face a tough reelection campaign in 2022 (Ballotpedia, The Hill, Rome News-Tribune). Elections are scheduled for 8 November 2022 (Ballotpedia). If the outcome is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If the outcome is dependent upon a recount, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 8 November 2022 when the outcome is known.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.55%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.45%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-09-02","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Kansas' 3rd Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-10","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for New Jersey's 7th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-22","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for North Carolina's 13th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-18","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Michigan's 8th Congressional District in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-25","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the US House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats fighting to maintain control of the closely divided House (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"69%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the US Senate election for Florida in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-08-26","Closed_time":"2022-11-09","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"With the US Senate evenly divided going into the 2022 elections, the GOP is defending 20 seats while Democrats are defending 14 this November (270 to Win, Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"What will be the national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 8 November 2022, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?","Started_time":"2022-06-24","Closed_time":"2022-11-08","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Economic Indicators","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Gas prices are expected to play a major role in 2022 midterm election campaigns (CBS News, Politico, CNN). The question will be suspended on 7 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by AAA for 8 November 2022 (AAA, see \"Today's AAA National Average\" graphic).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $3.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $3.50 but less than $4.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than $4.50 but less than $5.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $5.50 but less than $6.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $6.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $3.00","Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive","More than $3.50 but less than $4.00","Between $4.00 and $4.50, inclusive","More than $4.50 but less than $5.00","Between $5.00 and $5.50, inclusive","More than $5.50 but less than $6.00","Between $6.00 and $6.50, inclusive","More than $6.50"],"target":"More than $3.50 but less than $4.00"}
{"Question":"Before 8 November 2022, will American basketball player Brittney Griner leave Russia?","Started_time":"2022-08-12","Closed_time":"2022-11-08","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, the US is reportedly negotiating for the release of Brittney Griner and other Americans imprisoned in Russia (CNN, ABC News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.78%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.22%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and\/or law enforcement of Russia and those of a NATO member state resulting in at least three fatalities before 8 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-11","Closed_time":"2022-11-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"President Volodymyr Zelensky has  pushed for greater NATO involvement in the defense of Ukraine (BBC, CBS News). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and\/or law enforcement of either side. As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). For the purposes of this question, members of armed forces fighting without command authorization are not considered \"national military forces and\/or law enforcement\" (e.g., AP, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.95%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.05%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2022 MLB World Series?","Started_time":"2022-05-06","Closed_time":"2022-11-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"After a delayed start, the 2022 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season is scheduled to end on 5 October 2022, with the playoffs to follow (USA Today, MLB). The question will be scheduled to suspend on 7 November 2022 and will be adjusted once the 2022 playoff schedule is released.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Atlanta Braves":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Chicago White Sox":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Houston Astros":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"Los Angeles Angels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Los Angeles Dodgers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Milwaukee Brewers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New York Mets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"New York Yankees":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Philadelphia Phillies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"San Diego Padres":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"San Francisco Giants":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"St. Louis Cardinals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tampa Bay Rays":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Toronto Blue Jays":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No team will win the 2022 World Series":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Atlanta Braves","Chicago White Sox","Houston Astros","Los Angeles Angels","Los Angeles Dodgers","Milwaukee Brewers","New York Mets","New York Yankees","Philadelphia Phillies","San Diego Padres","San Francisco Giants","St. Louis Cardinals","Tampa Bay Rays","Toronto Blue Jays","Another team","No team will win the 2022 World Series"],"target":"Houston Astros"}
{"Question":"How many games will the Houston Astros win in the 2022 World Series?","Started_time":"2022-10-28","Closed_time":"2022-11-06","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Game 1 of the best of seven MLB World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Houston Astros is scheduled for 28 October 2022 (CBS Sports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"4":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4"],"target":"4"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 31 October 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2022-06-10","Closed_time":"2022-10-31","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 4 June 2022, Biden's approval rating was 40.8%. The data for 31 October 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 November 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 35.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 35.0%","Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive","Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0%","Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive","Higher than 50.0%"],"target":"Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0%"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual percentage change in the average hourly earnings of US private sector employees in October 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-26","Closed_time":"2022-10-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Labor shortages have put pressure on wages in the US (CNBC, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private,\" expected on 4 November 2022 (FRED, adjust the slider under the chart to include latest data). For August 2021, the annual percentage change was 4.07194%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"An increase of less than 2.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"An increase of 6.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["An increase of less than 2.0%","An increase of between 2.0% and 3.0%, inclusive","An increase of more than 3.0% but less than 4.0%","An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive","An increase of more than 5.0% but less than 6.0%","An increase of 6.0% or more"],"target":"An increase of between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the value of the FAO Cereals Price Index for October 2022 be higher than it was for September 2022?","Started_time":"2022-09-12","Closed_time":"2022-11-01","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Indicies fell from highs reached in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but they remain elevated (CNBC, UN). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022  and the outcome determined using nominal data reported by the FAO for Cereals for September 2022 and October 2022 as reported in November 2022 (FAO, see table near bottom of page). As of 1 September 2022, the value for the Cereals Price Index for July 2022 was 147.3. To download historical nominal data, click either \"Excel\" or \"CSV\" above the chart titled \"FAO Food Price Index in nominal and real terms.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78.87%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21.13%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many seats will Likud win in the 2022 Israeli legislative elections?","Started_time":"2022-07-22","Closed_time":"2022-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Disagreements within the ruling coalition led to a dissolution of the Knesset and the scheduling of legislative elections on 1 November 2022, the fifth in less than four years (BBC, France 24). If Likud forms an electoral alliance, the total number of seats for the alliance's list would count for resolution (e.g., France 24).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 27":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 27 and 31":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Between 32 and 36":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"More than 36":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 27","Between 27 and 31","Between 32 and 36","More than 36"],"target":"Between 32 and 36"}
{"Question":"Will more than 2,500,000 federal firearm background checks be initiated in the US in October 2022?","Started_time":"2022-09-26","Closed_time":"2022-11-01","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Politics"],"Description":"Background checks for gun purchases have fallen from historic highs in 2020 and 2021, but remain above pre-pandemic levels (National Interest). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI (FBI.gov). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first reported for October 2022, expected in early November 2022. For October 2021, the FBI reported 2,593,168 firearm background checks.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66.97%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33.03%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will voter turnout be in the 2022 presidency elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia)?","Started_time":"2022-06-10","Closed_time":"2022-10-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The country of Bosnia is scheduled to hold elections on 2 October 2022 amid high political and ethnic tensions and the prospect of a potential Croat boycott (Al Jazeera, US News & World Report, Euractiv). Bosnia has a unique executive system, where the presidency consists of three members: \"one Bosniac and one Croat, each directly elected from the territory of the Federation [of Bosnia and Herzegovina], and one Serb directly elected from the territory of the Republika Srpska\" (BiH Constitution, see Article V). The outcome will be determined using results as published by the Central Election Commission (Central Election Commission of Bosnia). In the 2018 election, the turnout was 50.44% (Central Election Commission of Bosnia - 2018 Election Results, calculated by dividing the number of \"Valid ballots\" [1,692,316] by the \"Number of voters\" [3,355,429]). If the election is rescheduled to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the election is postponed to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close \"Presidency elections will not be held in 2022\" upon the announcement of that postponement.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 44.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Between 52.0% and 56.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"More than 56.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Presidency elections will not be held in 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 44.0%","Between 44.0% and 48.0%, inclusive","More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%","Between 52.0% and 56.0%, inclusive","More than 56.0%","Presidency elections will not be held in 2022"],"target":"More than 48.0% but less than 52.0%"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 2 November 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 21 September 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-10","Closed_time":"2022-11-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 1-2 November 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"Before 1 November 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least ten million student loan borrowers?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2022-11-01","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Finance","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Democrats continue to push President Biden to cancel most, if not all, federal student loan debt (CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Nerd Wallet). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12.44%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87.56%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screen in October 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2022-11-01","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The aviation industry continues to recover from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout (Daily Mail, Travel Pulse). The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (TSA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 50 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 50 million and 58 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 58 million but fewer than 66 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 66 million and 74 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"More than 74 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 50 million","Between 50 million and 58 million, inclusive","More than 58 million but fewer than 66 million","Between 66 million and 74 million, inclusive","More than 74 million"],"target":"Between 66 million and 74 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 November 2022, will a snap election be called for the Northern Ireland Assembly?","Started_time":"2022-10-04","Closed_time":"2022-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"A new Northern Ireland executive has yet to be formed since election in May 2022, and the UK's Secretary of State for Northern Ireland has said he will have to call a snap election on 28 October 2022 if a new executive is not formed by then (Politico, BelfastLive, Sky News, Northern Ireland Executive).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27.17%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72.83%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day price of Bitcoin on 31 October 2022?","Started_time":"2022-10-10","Closed_time":"2022-10-31","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the last price dated 31 October 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, set chart to \"1W\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $12,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $12,000.00 and $16,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $16,000.00 but less than $20,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Between $20,000.00 and $24,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"},"More than $24,000.00 but less than $28,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between $28,000.00 and $32,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $32,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $12,000.00","Between $12,000.00 and $16,000.00, inclusive","More than $16,000.00 but less than $20,000.00","Between $20,000.00 and $24,000.00, inclusive","More than $24,000.00 but less than $28,000.00","Between $28,000.00 and $32,000.00, inclusive","More than $32,000.00"],"target":"Between $20,000.00 and $24,000.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Brazil?","Started_time":"2021-12-03","Closed_time":"2022-10-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Brazil's next presidential election could lead to a showdown between incumbent President Bolsonaro and former President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (France 24, Superior Electoral Court). Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled for 2022 with the first round of voting to take place on 2 October 2022, and a runoff is scheduled for 30 October 2022 if needed.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jair Bolsonaro":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Jo\u00e3o Doria":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ciro Gomes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"S\u00e9rgio Moro":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"Another candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Jair Bolsonaro","Jo\u00e3o Doria","Ciro Gomes","S\u00e9rgio Moro","Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva","Another candidate"],"target":"Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva"}
{"Question":"Before 1 November 2022, will Twitter announce that Parag Agrawal has ceased or will cease to be the company's sole CEO?","Started_time":"2022-04-22","Closed_time":"2022-10-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Parag Agrawal replaced Twitter founder Jack Dorsey as the company's CEO in November 2021 and is now facing a potential takeover bid from Elon Musk (CNBC, NPR, Quartz). The addition of a co-CEO would count, and the date Agrawal would cease to be CEO would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.66%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.34%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close before 1 January 2023?","Started_time":"2022-06-03","Closed_time":"2022-10-28","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society"],"Description":"After Elon Musk announced his bid to buy Twitter in April 2022, various developments have put the deal into question (Twitter, CNN, The Hill). When Twitter announced that it accepted Musk's offer, it stated that the transaction \"is expected to close in 2022\" (SEC - EDGAR). The question would close early upon the official termination of the deal per filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79.44%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.56%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Iraq form a government before 21 February 2023?","Started_time":"2022-10-21","Closed_time":"2022-10-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After selecting a president more than a year after the last general election, Iraqi officials are attempting to form a government amid continued political gridlock (France24, House of Commons Library, Al-Arabiya). A government would be deemed formed upon the Council of Representatives approving individual ministers and the ministerial program in accordance with the Iraqi constitution (Iraqi Constitution, see Article 76, Section Four). The question would close \"No\" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new government being formed.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.30%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49.70%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2024, will Elizabeth \"Liz\" Truss cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","Started_time":"2022-09-09","Closed_time":"2022-10-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Liz Truss was appointed as the UK's prime minister on 6 September 2022, and faces a number of challenges, including Brexit, possible recession, and the death of Queen Elizabeth II (Gov.uk - Truss Biography, US News & World Report, Politico, NY Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.80%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.20%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 April 2023, will Liz Truss cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","Started_time":"2022-10-04","Closed_time":"2022-10-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2023","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Since becoming the UK prime minister in early September 2022, Liz Truss is facing a number of challenges, including blowback from an economic plan and political tensions in Northern Ireland (NPR, NBC News, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.66%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.34%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"To which political party will the next prime minister of Italy belong after the 2022 general election?","Started_time":"2022-07-29","Closed_time":"2022-09-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned in July 2022 amid tensions within his coalition government (CNBC, NPR, France 24, US News & World Report, Politico - Italy Poll of Polls). The next general election is scheduled for 25 September 2022. The question will be suspended on 25 September 2022, the scheduled date of the next general election, and the outcome determined once a new prime minister is sworn in. If no new prime minister has been sworn in and a second general election is called, the question would close \"None of the above.\" The appointment of a new caretaker prime minister would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Forward Italy (Forza Italia)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"League (Lega)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)","Democratic Party (Partito Democratico)","Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle)","Forward Italy (Forza Italia)","League (Lega)","None of the above"],"target":"Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia)"}
{"Question":"What will be the price of palladium on 21 October 2022, according to the London Metal Exchange?","Started_time":"2022-04-22","Closed_time":"2022-10-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Palladium prices have surged since Russia, one of the world's largest producers, invaded Ukraine (Deutsche Welle, Investing.com, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using \"USD-PM\" price data (per troy ounce) for 21 October 2022 when first published by the London Metal Exchange (LME).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1600.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 1600.00 and 2000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"},"More than 2000.00 but less than 2400.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58%"},"Between 2400.00 and 2800.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 2800.00 but less than 3200.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3200.00 and 3600.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3600.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1600.00","Between 1600.00 and 2000.00, inclusive","More than 2000.00 but less than 2400.00","Between 2400.00 and 2800.00, inclusive","More than 2800.00 but less than 3200.00","Between 3200.00 and 3600.00, inclusive","More than 3600.00"],"target":"Between 1600.00 and 2000.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 14 October 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2022-09-12","Closed_time":"2022-10-14","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 13 October 2022 and the outcome determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 28 August 2022, Biden's approval rating was 42.3%. The data for 14 October 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 17 October 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 38.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 38.0%","Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive","Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%","Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive","Higher than 50.0%"],"target":"Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate on 14 October 2022?","Started_time":"2022-07-15","Closed_time":"2022-10-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Amid the war in Ukraine and concerns about energy supplies in Europe, the euro to US dollar exchange rate hit parity for the first time in two decades on 13 July 2022, meaning that one euro was worth one dollar (CNBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 0.85":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 0.85 and 0.90, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Higher than 0.90 but lower than 0.95":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"Higher than 1.00 but lower than 1.05":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Between 1.05 and 1.10, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1.15 or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 0.85","Between 0.85 and 0.90, inclusive","Higher than 0.90 but lower than 0.95","Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive","Higher than 1.00 but lower than 1.05","Between 1.05 and 1.10, inclusive","Higher than 1.10 but lower than 1.15","1.15 or higher"],"target":"Between 0.95 and 1.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Iraq's parliament elect a new President of the Republic before 6 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-08-05","Closed_time":"2022-10-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After parliamentary elections were held in Iraq in October 2021, the country has yet to, among other things, elect a new president (Voice of America, Al Jazeera, The National). The question would close \"No\" upon the calling of new parliamentary elections in the country without a new president having been elected. Replacement of the president due to vacancy in accordance with the constitution would not count (Iraqi Constitution).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.25%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.75%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 16 September 2022 and 31 October 2022, will anti-government protests in Iran result in 200 or more protester fatalities, according to Iran Human Rights?","Started_time":"2022-09-23","Closed_time":"2022-10-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Widespread protests have broken out in Iran after a woman who was arrested for breaking hijab rules died in police custody (NPR, Al-Monitor, CBS News). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. As of 22 September 2022, Iran Human Rights reported that 31 protesters had been killed (Iran Human Rights). The outcome will be determined using available information no later than 4 November 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2022 as of 11 October 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2022-10-11","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (Guardian, Yale Climate Connections). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) \"Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph\" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 11 October 2022 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, About Charctic Data). Other site data would be immaterial. The lowest daily reported arctic sea ice extent in 2021 was 4.724 million sq. km on 16 September.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.5 million sq. km":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 3.5 million sq. km and 4.0 million sq. km, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"More than 4.0 million sq. km but less than 4.5 million sq. km":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"More than 5.0 million sq. km":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.5 million sq. km","Between 3.5 million sq. km and 4.0 million sq. km, inclusive","More than 4.0 million sq. km but less than 4.5 million sq. km","Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive","More than 5.0 million sq. km"],"target":"Between 4.5 million sq. km and 5.0 million sq. km, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 8 April 2022 and 8 October 2022, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of having provided lethal aid to Russia after 24 February 2022 for use in Ukraine?","Started_time":"2022-04-08","Closed_time":"2022-10-08","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As the war in Ukraine continues, the US and others have voiced concerns over China possibly providing support for Russia's war effort (BBC, ABC News). For the purposes of this question, \"lethal aid\" means any weapon, ammunition, or other equipment or material that is designed to inflict serious bodily injury or death (Cornell - 10 USC \u00a72557, effectively the inverse of 10 USC \u00a72557(d)(1)(B)). Examples of lethal aid include bullets, warplanes, missiles, and armed drones, but would not include surveillance equipment, body armor, medical supplies, intelligence, etc. An accusation need not explicitly characterize aid as \"lethal aid\" to count so long as the accusation includes enough detail to ascertain that the aid given was lethal, but the accusation must assert that the lethal aid was provided for use by Russia in Ukraine. Recent examples of an accusation of lethal aid being provided include Russia and China arming the military junta in Myanmar and Turkey providing armed drones to Ethiopia (Deutsche Welle, US News & World Report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.30%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.70%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which driver will win the 2022 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?","Started_time":"2022-05-20","Closed_time":"2022-10-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Formula 1 auto racing is one of the most popular sports in the world (F1 Chronicle). The final grand prix of the year is scheduled for 20 November 2022 in Abu Dhabi (Formula1 - Driver Standings, Formula1 - Schedule).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lewis Hamilton":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Charles Leclerc":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Sergio Perez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"George Russell":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Carlos Sainz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Max Verstappen":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"Another driver":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Lewis Hamilton","Charles Leclerc","Sergio Perez","George Russell","Carlos Sainz","Max Verstappen","Another driver"],"target":"Max Verstappen"}
{"Question":"Will the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate be higher than 1.00 on 7 October 2022?","Started_time":"2022-09-12","Closed_time":"2022-10-07","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Amid the war in Ukraine and concerns about energy supplies in Europe, the euro to US dollar exchange rate hit parity for the first time in two decades on 13 July 2022, meaning that one euro was worth one dollar (CNBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19.73%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.27%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be Russia's annual rate of inflation in September 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-10","Closed_time":"2022-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"As in many other countries, inflation has been on the rise in Russia in 2021 (Moscow Times, Bloomberg). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data for September 2021 when monthly IMF data for September 2022 are first available, expected by November 2022 (IMF). On the page, change \"Country\" on the upper left of the page to \"Russian Federation,\" then see \"Consumer Price Index, All items.\" For August 2021 (2021M08), the annual rate of inflation was 6.69617%, calculated by dividing the index figure for August 2021 (2021M08) by the index figure for August 2020 (2020M08) and subtracting 1.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 5.0% but lower than 7.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Higher than 9.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"}},"choices":["Lower than 3.0%","Between 3.0% and 5.0%, inclusive","Higher than 5.0% but lower than 7.0%","Between 7.0% and 9.0%, inclusive","Higher than 9.0%"],"target":"Higher than 9.0%"}
{"Question":"What will be the oil and gas rig count for the Permian Basin in the first week of October 2022, according to Baker Hughes?","Started_time":"2022-04-01","Closed_time":"2022-10-07","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Record-high oil and gasoline prices have put a renewed focus on oil and gas production in the US, particularly in the Permian Basin (Politico, Dallas Fed - Permian Basin). The Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count \"is a weekly census of the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States and Canada\" (Baker Hughes - Rig Count FAQs). The outcome will be determined using data for the \"Permian\" first released in October 2022 (Baker Hughes - Rig Count). To download the data, click \"North American Rotary Rig Count (Jan 2000 - Current)\" to download the spreadsheet. Navigate to the sheet named \"US Count by Basin,\" find the \"Permian\" columns, and sum the figures under \"Oil\" and \"Gas.\" The first October data are expected on 7 October 2022. Figures marked \"Misc\" are immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 275":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 275 and 325":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 326 and 375":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"},"Between 376 and 425":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Between 426 and 475":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 475":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 275","Between 275 and 325","Between 326 and 375","Between 376 and 425","Between 426 and 475","More than 475"],"target":"Between 326 and 375"}
{"Question":"What will be the average temperature at Dubai International Airport between 1 May 2022 and 30 September 2022?","Started_time":"2021-09-24","Closed_time":"2022-10-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data from Meteostat (Meteostat). On the page, set the date range for \"2021-05-01 - 2021-09-30\" in the field above the \"Avg. Pressure\" field and click the \"Export\" button. The average of the daily averages (\"tavg\" in the file) will be used for resolution. Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020, the average temperature was 35.48497 degrees Celsius (Meteostat - DBX 2020). For the same period in 2019, the average temperature was and 35.63268 degrees Celsius (Meteostat - DBX 2021). This question will be resolved with data available on 7 October 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"},"More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 37.5 degrees Celsius":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 34.5 degrees Celsius","Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive","More than 35.5 and but less than 36.5 degrees Celsius","Between 36.5 and 37.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive","More than 37.5 degrees Celsius"],"target":"Between 34.5 and 35.5 degrees Celsius, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be total regular season attendance at Major League Baseball games in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2022-10-05","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"While Opening Day for baseball was postponed due to contract issues between team owners and the player's union, MLB has a full 162-game season scheduled for 2022 (CBS Sports, MLB). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Baseball Reference (Baseball Reference, see \"Attendance\" column).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 40 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 40 million and 45 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 45 million but fewer than 50 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 75 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 40 million","Between 40 million and 45 million, inclusive","More than 45 million but fewer than 50 million","Between 50 million and 55 million, inclusive","More than 55 million but fewer than 60 million","Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive","More than 65 million but fewer than 70 million","Between 70 million and 75 million, inclusive","More than 75 million"],"target":"Between 60 million and 65 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"As of 30 September 2022, will the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) rank higher than all other German parties in polling of national parliament voting intention, according to Politico?","Started_time":"2022-03-25","Closed_time":"2022-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The SPD-led German government faces a number of challenges in 2022, including lifting COVID restrictions, the war in Ukraine, and various domestic matters (Economist, Deutsche Welle, The Local). The outcome will be determined using data for 30 September 2022 as provided in Politico's \"Poll of Polls\" page for Germany no earlier than 5 October 2022 (Politico Poll of Polls - Germany, select \"1 Year\" and \"Kalman Smooth\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.36%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.64%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What percentage of valid votes will the Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva win in the first round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election?","Started_time":"2022-09-12","Closed_time":"2022-10-02","Challenges_list":["Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World \u2014 Harvard Kennedy School Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Former President Lula is challenging incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 Brazilian presidential election (BBC, US News & World Report). The first round of the election is scheduled to take place 2 October 2022 (Rio Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 41.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 41.0% and 44.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"More than 44.0% but less than 47.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"More than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"}},"choices":["Less than 41.0%","Between 41.0% and 44.0%, inclusive","More than 44.0% but less than 47.0%","Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive","More than 50.0%"],"target":"Between 47.0% and 50.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 1 October 2022?","Started_time":"2022-01-07","Closed_time":"2022-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution, later extending their intended grip on power as various opposition groups fight to dislodge it (Economist, Radio Free Asia, Myanmar Times) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" (Myanmar Constitution). The question would close \"Yes\" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.07%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.93%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Amazon.com begin to accept any cryptocurrency for purchases on the US site before 1 October 2022?","Started_time":"2021-07-30","Closed_time":"2022-10-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society"],"Description":"As businesses and financial institutions explore ways to integrate cryptocurrencies (cryptos) into their operations, there are conflicting reports about whether Amazon.com is preparing to accept them for its transactions (CNBC, City A.M., Coindesk). The acceptance of stablecoins would count, but permitting crypto transactions solely for the exchange of currency, crypto, and other digital assets (e.g., NFTs) would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.52%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.48%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 October 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-15","Closed_time":"2022-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post (The Verge, The Conversation, Cornell). There are multiple proposals under debate for its modification (Ars Technica, Brookings Institution).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.39%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.61%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2022, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?","Started_time":"2021-10-07","Closed_time":"2022-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Mark Zuckerberg, as Facebook's sole Chairman and CEO, has been under pressure as the company's business practices face ever greater scrutiny (CBS News, Endgadget, Quartz). An announced leave of absence or addition of either a co-chairman or co-CEO would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.21%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.79%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 2.3 million or more travelers per day for three consecutive days?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2022-09-30","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The aviation industry is working to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic (Economist). The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (TSA). The question will resolve when throughput data for 2021 or 2022 next show three consecutive days of 2.3 million or more travelers, which last occurred in December 2019 (Sorted TSA Data Download, see both sheets).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 1 April 2022 and 30 June 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Not before 1 October 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2022","Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022","Between 1 April 2022 and 30 June 2022","Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022","Not before 1 October 2022"],"target":"Not before 1 October 2022"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will Hong Kong cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine in Hong Kong?","Started_time":"2022-09-16","Closed_time":"2022-09-25","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In early August 2022, Hong Kong reduced the required time for travelers to quarantine, but compulsory quarantining remains in effect as part of its COVID protocols (Coronavirus.gov.hk, NPR, DestinAsian). For the purposes of this question, \"outside of China\" means anywhere other than the Chinese mainland, Macao, or Taiwan. The general removal of the requirements with exceptions would count so long as travel from at least six G7 nations is permitted without quarantine (Canada G7). An announcement that Hong Kong will cease to require travelers from outside of China to quarantine at some future date after 31 December 2022 would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77.31%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22.69%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 21 September 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 July 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-06","Closed_time":"2022-09-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its September meeting is scheduled for 20-21 September 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the ICE US Dollar Index on 16 September 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-10","Closed_time":"2022-09-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The US Dollar Index, a measure of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, hit two-decade highs in May 2022 (NASDAQ, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\"). On 3 June 2022, the closing value was 102.17.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 95.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 95.00 and 100.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 100.00 but less than 105.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 105.00 and 110.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"More than 110.00 but less than 115.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"115.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 95.00","Between 95.00 and 100.00, inclusive","More than 100.00 but less than 105.00","Between 105.00 and 110.00, inclusive","More than 110.00 but less than 115.00","115.00 or more"],"target":"Between 105.00 and 110.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2022 and 30 September 2022, will lethal confrontations between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel (forces) of Armenia and Azerbaijan result in 100 or more fatalities?","Started_time":"2022-04-01","Closed_time":"2022-09-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Armenia and Azerbaijan most recently battled over the Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020, with periodic skirmishes since despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers (Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty, Eurasianet, Deutsche Welle). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results in a fatality (total, not each) for forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, the forces of Artsakh, the breakaway Armenian-majority republic in Nagorno-Karabakh, are considered Armenian forces.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54.71%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.29%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US core Consumer Price Index for August 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-11","Closed_time":"2022-09-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Core inflation is the change in the prices of goods and services with food and energy excluded (Economist, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using unadjusted data as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, expected in September 2022 (BLS, select \"All items less food and energy). For August 2021, the 12-month percentage change was 4.0% (BLS CPI Report - August 2021, see Table A under \"Unadjusted 12-mos. ended Aug. 2021\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.5% and 4.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 4.0% but less than 5.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 5.5% and 7.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"More than 7.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.5%","Between 2.5% and 4.0%, inclusive","More than 4.0% but less than 5.5%","Between 5.5% and 7.0%, inclusive","More than 7.0%"],"target":"Between 5.5% and 7.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 11 March 2022 and 9 September 2022, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?","Started_time":"2022-03-11","Closed_time":"2022-09-10","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (Defense News, The Hill, Atlantic Council).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.32%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.68%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2022-09-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In the wake of widespread protests in 2019, Chile began a process to draft and approve a new constitution to replace the current, Pinochet-era constitution (US News & World Report, Buenos Aires Times, Euronews). The referendum is currently scheduled for 4 September 2022 (France 24). If the Chilean government reschedules the referendum to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the Chilean government postpones the referendum to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close \"Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022\" upon the announcement of that postponement.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 40.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"},"More than 50.0% but less than 60%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"60.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Less than 40.0%","Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive","More than 50.0% but less than 60%","60.0% or more","Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022"],"target":"Less than 40.0%"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom elect a new leader?","Started_time":"2022-02-04","Closed_time":"2022-09-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","The Sky News Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the wake of various scandals (Sky News, The National). The current rules for electing the leader of the Conservative Party were introduced in 1998 (Parliament.uk, Conservative Party Constitution, see Schedule 2).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, Michael Gove":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, Jeremy Hunt":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, Sajid Javid":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, Priti Patel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, Dominic Raab":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, Rishi Sunak":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Yes, Liz Truss":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"Yes, Tom Tugendhat":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, Nadhim Zahawi":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, Michael Gove","Yes, Jeremy Hunt","Yes, Sajid Javid","Yes, Priti Patel","Yes, Dominic Raab","Yes, Rishi Sunak","Yes, Liz Truss","Yes, Tom Tugendhat","Yes, Nadhim Zahawi","Yes, someone else","No"],"target":"Yes, Liz Truss"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price per share of the ARK Innovation ETF on 2 September 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-03","Closed_time":"2022-09-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"After high gains during the height of the pandemic, the ARK Innovation ETF (Symbol: ARKK) has lost roughly 60% of its value from the beginning of June 2021 to the end of May 2022 (NPR, CNBC, US News & World Report, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $25.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $25.00 and $40.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"More than $40.00 but less than $55.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"},"Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $70.00 but less than $85.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$85.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $25.00","Between $25.00 and $40.00, inclusive","More than $40.00 but less than $55.00","Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive","More than $70.00 but less than $85.00","$85.00 or more"],"target":"More than $40.00 but less than $55.00"}
{"Question":"What percentage of South Africa's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 September 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-03","Closed_time":"2022-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 August 2022 and the outcome determined using the latest data as reported by Our World in Data for the \"People fully vaccinated\" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 2 September 2022: https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/covid-vaccinations?country=ZAF. For example, South Africa's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 24.25%. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 35.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"Between 35.00% and 50.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"More than 50.00% but less than 65.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 65.00% and 80.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 80.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 35.00%","Between 35.00% and 50.00%, inclusive","More than 50.00% but less than 65.00%","Between 65.00% and 80.00%, inclusive","More than 80.00%"],"target":"Less than 35.00%"}
{"Question":"Between 4 March 2022 and 4 September 2022, will a NATO member state accuse the Russian government of conducting a lethal cyberattack against the same NATO member state resulting in at least five fatalities?","Started_time":"2022-03-04","Closed_time":"2022-09-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As the Russia-Ukraine conflict develops, concerns have been raised regarding potential Russian cyberattacks (Fortune, Deutsche Welle, Just Security, National Interest). The attribution statement, the fatality, and at least part of the attack must all occur during the question's open period, but the end date of the question will be determined by the date of the fatality.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.85%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.15%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and\/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 September 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-22","Closed_time":"2022-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has been consistently sending military aircraft into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with growing numbers of aircraft, though not its national airspace (Deutsche Welle, France 24, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, \"territorial waters\" means the sea within 12 nautical miles of the shore of the main island of Taiwan.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21.19%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78.81%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"As of 31 August 2022, how many confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in countries where the disease is not endemic, according to Global Health?","Started_time":"2022-05-27","Closed_time":"2022-08-31","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"An outbreak of the monkeypox disease around the world has raised concerns about a potential epidemic (CBS News, Politico, CNBC). For the purposes of this question, countries where monkeypox is endemic are Benin, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, the Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan (WHO). The question will be suspended on 30 August 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Global Health for confirmed cases through and including 31 August 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 August 2022 (Global Health - Monkeypox Tracker, Global Health - Monkeypox Google Sheet). In the event of inconsistencies between the tracker link and the Google Sheet, the data on the map link would control.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,000 and 5,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5,000 but fewer than 25,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"More than 100,000 but fewer than 250,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"250,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1,000","Between 1,000 and 5,000, inclusive","More than 5,000 but fewer than 25,000","Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive","More than 100,000 but fewer than 250,000","250,000 or more"],"target":"Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 September 2022, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","Started_time":"2021-09-17","Closed_time":"2022-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan continue over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (Al-Monitor, All Africa). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (Egypt Today, Reuters, UN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.93%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.07%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization resulting in at least five fatalities before 1 September 2022?","Started_time":"2021-09-17","Closed_time":"2022-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. \u00a7 2331(5) (Cornell). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (State.gov). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.06%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.94%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2022-08-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the \"Close\" value dated 31 August 2022 as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Historical Data for SHIBA INU\" the morning of 1 September 2022 (CoinMarketCap - Shiba Inu). The market capitalization for Shiba Inu on 31 October 2021 was $36,919,669,979.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $15 billion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$55 billion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $15 billion","Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive","More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion","Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive","More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion","$55 billion or more"],"target":"Less than $15 billion"}
{"Question":"What percent of Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program will earn shared savings in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-11-05","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","US Policy"],"Description":"The Medicare Shared Savings Program rewards health organizations, known as Accountable Care Organizations, that lower expected healthcare spending for a defined patient population; rewards are defined as \"shared savings\" (CMS.gov - Shared Savings Program, CMS.gov - ACO Performance Data, Healthcare Finance, Rev Cycle Intelligence, Health Affairs). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data for 2021 as first released by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), expected in August 2022. For 2020, 67% of Accountable Care Organizations participating in the Medicare Shared Savings Program earned shared savings (CMS.gov - Performance Year Financial and Quality Results).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 40%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 40% and 50%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 50% but less than 60%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 60% and 70%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"More than 70% but less than 80%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"80% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 40%","Between 40% and 50%, inclusive","More than 50% but less than 60%","Between 60% and 70%, inclusive","More than 70% but less than 80%","80% or more"],"target":"More than 50% but less than 60%"}
{"Question":"How many job openings in the US will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for July 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-22","Closed_time":"2022-08-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with the number of job openings above 10 million for the third consecutive month in August 2021 (FOX Business, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for July 2022, expected in September 2022 (BLS - JOLTS). For July 2021, the number of job openings for \"Total US\" was 11,098 (in thousands) (JOLTS - August 2021, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/jlt\/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Total nonfarm.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and\/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 6 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"More than 11 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 6 million","Between 6 million and 7 million, inclusive","More than 7 million but fewer than 8 million","Between 8 million and 9 million, inclusive","More than 9 million but fewer than 10 million","Between 10 million and 11 million, inclusive","More than 11 million"],"target":"More than 11 million"}
{"Question":"What will be Twitter's end-of-day market capitalization on 26 August 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2022-08-26","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Elon Musk caused a stir by announcing that he had bought 9.2% of all outstanding shares of Twitter, leading to speculation that he may be planning a move to change the organization (The Verge, NBC News). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC after the NYSE closes on Friday 26 August 2022 (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $24 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $24 billion and $32 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"More than $32 billion but less than $40 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Between $40 billion and $48 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than $48 billion but less than $56 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $56 billion and $64 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $64 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Twitter will cease to be a publicly traded company on or before 26 August 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $24 billion","Between $24 billion and $32 billion, inclusive","More than $32 billion but less than $40 billion","Between $40 billion and $48 billion, inclusive","More than $48 billion but less than $56 billion","Between $56 billion and $64 billion, inclusive","More than $64 billion","Twitter will cease to be a publicly traded company on or before 26 August 2022"],"target":"Between $24 billion and $32 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 26 August 2022, according to Bloomberg?","Started_time":"2022-01-21","Closed_time":"2022-08-26","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Economic Indicators","US Politics","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As the world looks to alternative fuels, oil prices remain key to the energy industry (Economist). The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $55.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $70.00 but less than $85.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between $85.00 and $100.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"More than $100.00 but less than $115.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"$115.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Less than $55.00","Between $55.00 and $70.00, inclusive","More than $70.00 but less than $85.00","Between $85.00 and $100.00, inclusive","More than $100.00 but less than $115.00","$115.00 or more"],"target":"Between $85.00 and $100.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the Green Markets Weekly North American Fertilizer Price Index for the week from 26 August 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-11","Closed_time":"2022-08-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Fertilizer costs in the US have skyrocketed to historic highs in recent months (Farm Bureau, Texas Farm Bureau, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Green Markets (Green Markets).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 600.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 600.00 and 800.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 800.00 but less than 1,000.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Between 1,000.00 and 1,200.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 1,200.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 600.00","Between 600.00 and 800.00, inclusive","More than 800.00 but less than 1,000.00","Between 1,000.00 and 1,200.00, inclusive","More than 1,200.00"],"target":"More than 800.00 but less than 1,000.00"}
{"Question":"Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 20 August 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-20","Closed_time":"2022-08-20","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a \"hard border\" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (BBC, CNBC, Guardian). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland\/Northern Ireland).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.74%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.26%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the price of bitcoin on 20 August 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-20","Closed_time":"2022-08-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the last price dated for 20 August 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, chart set to \"1M\" and the \"chart switch\" toggle left at the default \"Close,\" not \"OHLC\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 14,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 14,000.00 and 22,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"More than 22,000.00 but less than 30,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Between 30,000.00 and 38,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 38,000.00 but less than 46,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 46,000.00 and 54,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 54,000.00 but less than 62,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"62,000.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 14,000.00","Between 14,000.00 and 22,000.00, inclusive","More than 22,000.00 but less than 30,000.00","Between 30,000.00 and 38,000.00, inclusive","More than 38,000.00 but less than 46,000.00","Between 46,000.00 and 54,000.00, inclusive","More than 54,000.00 but less than 62,000.00","62,000.00 or more"],"target":"Between 14,000.00 and 22,000.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Who will win the Republican primary for Wyoming's US House seat in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-18","Closed_time":"2022-08-16","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney is facing opposition from within the Republican Party over her work with the House committee investigating the 6 January 2021 Capitol riot and her opposition to former President Trump (Ballotpedia, The Hill, Newsweek). The Wyoming GOP Primary is scheduled for 16 August 2022 (WY Secretary of State).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Liz Cheney":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Harriet Hageman":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Liz Cheney","Harriet Hageman","Someone else"],"target":"Harriet Hageman"}
{"Question":"Will US federal legislation providing for new tax credits for the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs) become law before 19 August 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-18","Closed_time":"2022-08-16","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"New EV tax credits are included with President Biden's Build Back Better Act, which stalled in the Senate in late 2021 (CNBC, cnet). Legislation expanding existing tax credit programs would count. Tax credits for plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs) would also count (Department of Energy).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"As of the end of 2021, will total connected capacity of solar panels installed through the Shams Dubai program reach or exceed 400 MW?","Started_time":"2021-09-30","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Shams Dubai is the Dubai Electricity & Water Authority's (DEWA\u2019s) first smart initiative to connect solar energy to buildings, a part of the Distributed Renewable Resources Generation program (Shams Dubai). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome be determined using data as reported by DEWA (DEWA). For 2020, total DEWA reported 261.9 MW of Connected Capacity at Year End (DEWA - 2020 Sustainability Report, see page 58).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the next Kenyan presidential election?","Started_time":"2022-02-18","Closed_time":"2022-08-09","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Kenyans are preparing for what is expected to be a competitive presidential race in 2022 (Economist, Council on Foreign Relations). The next presidential election is scheduled for 9 August 2022 (Economist). The question would close upon officially announced results of the general election, irrespective of judicial intervention ordering a revote as took place in 2019 (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Raila Odinga":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"William Ruto":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Raila Odinga","William Ruto","Someone else"],"target":"William Ruto"}
{"Question":"What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 11 August 2022, according to CoinMarketCap?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2022-08-11","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The cryptocurrency market has seen significant volatility (Economist). The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 11 August 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" with \"Zoom\" set to \"7d\" the morning of 12 August 2022 (CoinMarketCap).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1.0 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between $1.0 trillion and $2.0 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"More than $2.0 trillion but less than $3.0 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $3.0 trillion and $4.0 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $4.0 trillion but less than $5.0 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$5.0 trillion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $1.0 trillion","Between $1.0 trillion and $2.0 trillion, inclusive","More than $2.0 trillion but less than $3.0 trillion","Between $3.0 trillion and $4.0 trillion, inclusive","More than $4.0 trillion but less than $5.0 trillion","$5.0 trillion or more"],"target":"Between $1.0 trillion and $2.0 trillion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 31 July 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2022-03-04","Closed_time":"2022-07-31","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 24 February 2022, Biden's approval rating was 42.1%. The data for 31 July 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 5 August 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 35.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 35.0%","Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive","Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0%","Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive","Higher than 50.0%"],"target":"Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 5 August 2022, will a NATO member state accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?","Started_time":"2022-04-01","Closed_time":"2022-08-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The US has alleged that Russia is considering the use of chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine (France 24). As of launch, there were 30 NATO member states (NATO). The use of chemical or biological agents confined to an individual or small group of individuals in noncombat situations would not count (e.g., Sergei and Yulia Skripal, Alexander Litvinenko, Viktor Yushchenko, Roman Abramovich (Daily Mail, BBC). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. Accusations about incidents prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 4 February 2022 and 4 August 2022, will anti-government protests in Russia result in ten or more fatalities?","Started_time":"2022-03-04","Closed_time":"2022-08-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Russia has seen widespread protests in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine (AP, Moscow Times). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 5 August 2022, will Russia detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian territory or airspace?","Started_time":"2022-03-04","Closed_time":"2022-08-05","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Soon after invading Ukraine, Russia put its nuclear forces on \"special alert\" (BBC, AP). A radiological device (aka \"dirty bomb\") would not count (Mass.gov).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Taiwan as of 31 July 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-28","Closed_time":"2022-08-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health"],"Description":"After remaining relatively COVID-free for most of the pandemic, an outbreak has hit Taiwan hard since April 2022 (AP, Focus Taiwan). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (OWiD) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 August 2022 (Our World in Data, parameters set in link).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 3.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.8 million and 4.3 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 4.8 million and 5.3 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5.3 million but fewer than 5.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5.8 million and 6.3 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6.3 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 3.8 million","Between 3.8 million and 4.3 million, inclusive","More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million","Between 4.8 million and 5.3 million, inclusive","More than 5.3 million but fewer than 5.8 million","Between 5.8 million and 6.3 million, inclusive","More than 6.3 million"],"target":"More than 4.3 million but fewer than 4.8 million"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury on 1 August 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-28","Closed_time":"2022-08-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The yield on a 10-Year Treasury bond is closely watched for a number of reasons (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) (FRED). As of 22 June 2022, the yield was 3.16%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.60":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between 2.60 and 3.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"More than 3.00 but less than 3.40":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.40 and 3.80, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.80 but less than 4.20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4.20 or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.60","Between 2.60 and 3.00, inclusive","More than 3.00 but less than 3.40","Between 3.40 and 3.80, inclusive","More than 3.80 but less than 4.20","4.20 or higher"],"target":"Between 2.60 and 3.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will new episodes of Joe Rogan's podcast, The Joe Rogan Experience, cease to be carried on Spotify before 2 August 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-11","Closed_time":"2022-08-02","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Digital streaming service Spotify has faced criticism over things said by Joe Rogan on his popular podcast (The Hill, NPR, FOX Business, BBC). A change to the name of the podcast alone would be immaterial. The removal of individual episodes from Spotify would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Speaker Nancy Pelosi officially announce that she will visit or has visited Taiwan?","Started_time":"2022-07-23","Closed_time":"2022-08-02","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was expected to visit Taiwan in April 2022, but the visit was canceled (Guardian, Politico). A new potential visit has raised concerns about the Chinese reaction to it (CNN, Politico). An official announcement from her office would count. If Pelosi officially announces that she has visited Taiwan or is in Taiwan, presence in the country must take place in 2022 to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 28 July 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 28 July and 31 August 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 September and 31 October 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 November and 31 December 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 28 July 2022","Between 28 July and 31 August 2022","Between 1 September and 31 October 2022","Between 1 November and 31 December 2022","Not before 1 January 2023"],"target":"Between 28 July and 31 August 2022"}
{"Question":"What will be the daily reported natural gas in storage in the EU for 31 July 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-28","Closed_time":"2022-08-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As the war in Ukraine continues, Russian deliveries of natural gas to Europe have been reduced, with the EU fearing further cuts as it tries to increase storage for the coming winter (ABC News, AP). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022 and the outcome determined using \"Gas in storage TWh\" data as first reported by Gas Infrastructure Europe (Gas Infrastructure Europe, in the row for \"EU\" and under the \"View\" column at the very end, the relevant data can be viewed by selecting the first icon for \"Historical data\"). Whether the data reported are Confirmed or Estimated is immaterial. \"TWh\" means \"Terawatt hour\" (Statistics Finland).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 650.0 TWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 650.0 TWh and 700.0 TWh, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 700.0 TWh but less than 750.0 TWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 750.0 TWh and 800.0 TWh, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 800.0 TWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 650.0 TWh","Between 650.0 TWh and 700.0 TWh, inclusive","More than 700.0 TWh but less than 750.0 TWh","Between 750.0 TWh and 800.0 TWh, inclusive","More than 800.0 TWh"],"target":"Between 750.0 TWh and 800.0 TWh, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many games will the Baltimore Orioles have won in the 2022 MLB season as of 1 August 2022?","Started_time":"2022-07-01","Closed_time":"2022-08-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 July 2022. The Orioles had 35 wins as of 30 June 2022, and they are scheduled to play the Texas Rangers on 1 August 2022 (ESPN). For the purposes of this question, a game that commences on 1 August 2022 will count toward the total regardless of when that game ends unless play is postponed to a subsequent day.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 41":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 41 and 46":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 47 and 52":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 53 and 58":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 58":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 41","Between 41 and 46","Between 47 and 52","Between 53 and 58","More than 58"],"target":"Between 47 and 52"}
{"Question":"Will Russia officially recognize Transnistria (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Republic) in Moldova as an independent state before 1 August 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-24","Closed_time":"2022-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 21 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in Ukraine as independent states, triggering international condemnation (BBC, NPR). As Russia pushes forces into Ukraine, there is speculation that Putin may recognize Transnistria, a breakaway region in eastern Moldova on Ukraine's western border, which already hosts Russian peacekeepers (Britannica, New Eastern Europe, Al Jazeera, G4 Media [in Romanian]).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 worldwide will be reported as of 28 July 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2022-07-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). The data for 28 July 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 29 July 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 6.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 6.5 million but fewer than 7.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7.0 million and 7.5 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 7.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"8.0 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 6.0 million","Between 6.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive","More than 6.5 million but fewer than 7.0 million","Between 7.0 million and 7.5 million, inclusive","More than 7.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million","8.0 million or more"],"target":"Between 6.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 27 July 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 15 June 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-18","Closed_time":"2022-07-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 26-27 July 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"Will Tunisia hold a constitutional referendum before 1 August 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-17","Closed_time":"2022-07-25","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 13 December 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied announced that the country would hold a referendum on a new constitution on 25 July 2022, exactly one year after he froze parliament and took over political control of the country (Economist, France 24, Brookings Institution). A referendum on either a new constitution or amendments to the existing constitution would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between April 2022 and June 2023, when will Japan's Consumer Price Index all items less fresh food (CPI ex FF) exceed 2.0% for three consecutive months?","Started_time":"2022-05-13","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"On 28 April 2022, the Bank of Japan released a statement saying, among other things, that it \"will continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner\" (Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Releases 2022, Bank of Japan - Statement on Monetary Policy 28 April 2022). The outcome will be determined using data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan as reported by e-Stat (e-Stat - CPI). For February 2022, Japan's year-over-year CPI ex FF was 0.6% (e-Stat - CPI March 2022, download Table number \"1-1, Subgroup Index for Japan\" for \"Monthly\" and see sheet \"am01-1 (3)\" for  \"Monthly, % Change over the year.\" The relevant data are under \"All items, less fresh food.\" The question could close as of the first day after the third consecutive month of CPI ex FF above 2.0%. The previous 12 months of data are also available at Trading Economics (Trading Economics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before September 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between September 2022 and January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between February 2023 and June 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before July 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before September 2022","Between September 2022 and January 2023","Between February 2023 and June 2023","Not before July 2023"],"target":"Before September 2022"}
{"Question":"When will the European Central Bank (ECB) next announce that it will raise its deposit facility interest rate?","Started_time":"2022-03-25","Closed_time":"2022-07-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As inflation rages globally, there is speculation that the ECB could raise interest rates as soon as this year (US News & World Report, NASDAQ). The outcome will be determined using press releases from the ECB on \"Monetary policy decisions\" (ECB - Press Releases). As of the launch of this question, the ECB's \"Deposit facility\" rate was -0.5% (ECB - Key ECB Interest Rates). The ECB meeting calendar may be found here: https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/calendars\/mgcgc\/html\/index.en.html. The question would close as of the date of the announcement, not the date the raise would take effect (e.g., ECB - Press Release 10 March 2016).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 July 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 July 2022","Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022","Between 1 October 2022 and 31 December 2022","Not before 1 January 2023"],"target":"Between 1 July 2022 and 30 September 2022"}
{"Question":"As of 15 July 2022, how many refugees will have fled Ukraine since 24 February 2022, according to UNHCR?","Started_time":"2022-04-15","Closed_time":"2022-07-15","Challenges_list":["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge","In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Millions of Ukrainians have fled their country since Russia invaded in February 2022, with millions more internally displaced (BBC, UNHCR - Ukraine situation: Flash Update #7). The question will be suspended on 15 July 2022 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) agency on 19 July 2022 (UNHCR - Ukraine Refugee Situation).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 6.4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.4 million and 7.6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 7.6 million but fewer than 8.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 8.8 million and 10.0 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 10.0 million but fewer than 11.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11.2 million and 12.4 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 12.4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 6.4 million","Between 6.4 million and 7.6 million, inclusive","More than 7.6 million but fewer than 8.8 million","Between 8.8 million and 10.0 million","More than 10.0 million but fewer than 11.2 million","Between 11.2 million and 12.4 million, inclusive","More than 12.4 million"],"target":"Between 8.8 million and 10.0 million"}
{"Question":"Between 29 April 2022 and 1 December 2022, will the United States launch either an ICBM or a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2022-07-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"After the US delayed then canceled an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russia subsequently tested a new ICBM of its own (US News & World Report, Space.com). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM or SLBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), then open source reporting if needed (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. A missile will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the ICBM left the ground or SLBM cleared the water and its first stage ignited.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from April 2022 through June 2022 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?","Started_time":"2022-02-18","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The flow of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico remains a hot political issue (Economist, ABC 15, Pew Research). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the months of April, May, and June 2022 (US Customs and Border Protection). For April 2021, CBP reported a total of 178,795 encounters in the US southwest.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 250,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 250,000 and 400,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 400,000 but fewer than 550,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 550,000 and 700,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than 700,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 250,000","Between 250,000 and 400,000, inclusive","More than 400,000 but fewer than 550,000","Between 550,000 and 700,000, inclusive","More than 700,000"],"target":"Between 550,000 and 700,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the US dollar\/Russian ruble exchange rate on 15 July 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-04","Closed_time":"2022-07-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Global sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine have pushed the value of the Russian ruble to historic lows (CBS News, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance, set to \"6M\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 75.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 75.00 and 100.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 100.00 but lower than 125.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 125.00 and 150.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 150.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 75.00","Between 75.00 and 100.00, inclusive","Higher than 100.00 but lower than 125.00","Between 125.00 and 150.00, inclusive","More than 150.00"],"target":"Lower than 75.00"}
{"Question":"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-05","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, China is facing new disruptions to its economy (CNN, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using quarterly data from China's National Bureau of Statistics as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined when the relevant data for 2Q 2022 are first released, scheduled for July 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 7.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 4.0%","Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive","More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%","Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive","More than 7.0%"],"target":"Less than 4.0%"}
{"Question":"Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa cease to be the president of Sri Lanka before 20 July 2022?","Started_time":"2022-05-20","Closed_time":"2022-07-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Economic Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After weeks of protests over inflation and food shortages, Sri Lanka Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned in early May while his brother Gotabaya continued on as the country's president (NPR, CNN, Voice of America).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the US producer price index for Internet advertising sales in June 2022?","Started_time":"2021-09-03","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"After years of steady declines, the price of Internet advertising began to rise in the summer of 2020 (FRED, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Internet advertising space sales, excluding Internet ads sold by print publishers\" (Commodity code 36-5) in June 2022, expected in July 2022 (BLS - PPI Release Schedule). For June 2021, the unadjusted index was 65.3 (BLS PPI Report - June 2021, see page 24). For historical data, visit https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/ppi\/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"36 Advertising space and time sales.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"365 Internet advertising sales, excluding Internet advertising sold by print publishers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Add to selection,\" and \"Get Data.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 60.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"},"Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"84.0 or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 60.0","Between 60.0 and 66.0, inclusive","Higher than 66.0 but lower than 72.0","Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive","Higher than 78.0 but lower than 84.0","84.0 or higher"],"target":"Between 72.0 and 78.0, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual rate of headline inflation in the US, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in June 2022?","Started_time":"2021-06-18","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","Man Group\u2019s Good Question Challenge 2022","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in July 2022 (BLS). For May 2021, the rate was 5.0%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 0.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5.0% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 0.0%","Between 0.0% and 2.0%, inclusive","More than 2.0% but less than 3.0%","Between 3.0% and 4.0%, inclusive","More than 4.0% but less than 5.0%","5.0% or more"],"target":"5.0% or more"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2022, will the US impose sanctions on any Chinese person or entity for actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic?","Started_time":"2021-06-24","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"Whether the United States will impose sanctions against China for its actions related to the COVID-19 pandemic is a topic of growing debate (Yahoo, Axios, Bloomberg). For the purposes of this question, sanctions could be on an individual who is a citizen or national of the People's Republic of China or an entity organized under the laws of the People's Republic of China (e.g., CNN, Reuters, AP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the FAO Food Price Index for June 2022?","Started_time":"2022-01-07","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which in the past has been predictive of popular unrest, has reached historic highs (Economist, Axios, Slate). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in July 2022, typically released in the first week of the month (FAO, see table near bottom of page).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 120.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 130.0 but less than 140.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 150.0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 120.0","Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive","More than 130.0 but less than 140.0","Between 140.0 and 150.0, inclusive","More than 150.0"],"target":"More than 150.0"}
{"Question":"Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev either flee Kazakhstan or cease to be its president before 7 July 2022?","Started_time":"2022-01-07","Closed_time":"2022-07-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Major riots broke out in Kazakhstan after the government removed fuel subsidies (AP, BBC, The Hill). Whether or not Tokayev has fled Kazakhstan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 4 July 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-18","Closed_time":"2022-07-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Car and Driver, CBS News). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for \"Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices\" (EIA, see table).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.400 but less than 3.800":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.800 and 4.200, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4.200 but less than 4.600":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"More than 5.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.000","Between 3.000 and 3.400, inclusive","More than 3.400 but less than 3.800","Between 3.800 and 4.200, inclusive","More than 4.200 but less than 4.600","Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive","More than 5.000"],"target":"Between 4.600 and 5.000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 165 million?","Started_time":"2021-12-23","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health","US Policy"],"Description":"There's a renewed push in the US to get COVID-19 vaccine booster shots in as many vaccinated people as possible (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#vaccinations, click the \"Booster Doses***\" title on the table). For historical data, visit https:\/\/data.cdc.gov\/Vaccinations\/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-Jurisdi\/unsk-b7fc, click \"Export,\" and select your file preference. See \"US\" for \"Location,\" and booster doses are labeled \"Additional_Doses\" in the file. As of the launch of this question, the number of fully vaccinated people with a booster dose for COVID-19 as of 1 December 2021 was 41,933,410.  If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 15 February 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15 February 2022 and 31 March 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2022 and 15 May 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 May 2022 and 30 June 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 July 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 15 February 2022","Between 15 February 2022 and 31 March 2022","Between 1 April 2022 and 15 May 2022","Between 16 May 2022 and 30 June 2022","Not before 1 July 2022"],"target":"Not before 1 July 2022"}
{"Question":"Will Tesla produce at least 330,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Tesla in its Production and Delivery press release for the second quarter of 2022, expected in early July 2022 (Tesla).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"As of 1 July 2022, will France and\/or Germany require the wearing of face masks in indoor public places?","Started_time":"2022-02-25","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Denmark became the first EU member state to eliminate all of its COVID-19 restrictions, and other states are considering the future of their own measures, including mandatory masking (CNN, France 24, The Local). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by \"Re-open EU\" for France and Germany in July 2022 (Re-open EU). For each country, see \"General measures\" under \"CORONAVIRUS MEASURES\" (Re-open EU - France General measures, Re-open EU - Germany General measures). If that site ceases to provide updated information, general open-source reporting will be used for resolution. Local measures within either country would be immaterial, and a lifting of masking requirements with specific exceptions (e.g., medical facilities, homes for the elderly) would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, France only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, Germany only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both France and Germany":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, France only","Yes, Germany only","Yes, both France and Germany","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 29 October 2021 and 30 June 2022, how many members will announce their withdrawal from the Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries (China-CEEC) initiative?","Started_time":"2021-10-29","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In May 2021, Lithuania announced it would leave the China-CEEC group, turning the \"17+1\" initiative into \"16+1\" (Taipei Times, China Daily). Current members as of the question's launch are Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia (Politico.eu).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"1 or 2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3 or 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1 or 2","3 or 4","5 or more"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?","Started_time":"2021-08-27","Closed_time":"2022-06-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","The Sky News Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to push for a new referendum on Scottish independence (Sky News, House of Commons Library, Scottish Devolution: Section 30 Orders). A request from the Scottish First Minister (e.g., 2017 Sturgeon Letter to Prime Minister May) or a mandate for discussions from the Scottish parliament (e.g., Scottish Parliament's \"Scotland's Choice\" Motion) would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Not before 1 January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2022","Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022","Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022","Not before 1 January 2023"],"target":"Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 July 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-20","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (US News & World Report, BBC, ABC News). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2022, will the CPTPP Commission decide to commence the accession process for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and\/or Taiwan?","Started_time":"2021-10-08","Closed_time":"2022-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Taiwan, under the name of \"The Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu,\" and the PRC each recently requested accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (Bloomberg, Brookings Institute, Diplomat). The CPTPP Commission decided on 2 June 2021 to commence the accession process for the United Kingdom (Institute for Government, Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Global Affairs Canada). Whether the Commission subsequently reverses its own decision is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, but only for the PRC":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, but only for Taiwan":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, for both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, but only for the PRC","Yes, but only for Taiwan","Yes, for both","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 June 2022?","Started_time":"2021-06-17","Closed_time":"2022-06-30","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3,800":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"More than 4,100 but less than 4,400":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4,700 but less than 5,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3,800","Between 3,800 and 4,100, inclusive","More than 4,100 but less than 4,400","Between 4,400 and 4,700, inclusive","More than 4,700 but less than 5,000","5,000 or more"],"target":"Less than 3,800"}
{"Question":"Which publicly traded US company will have the highest end-of-day market capitalization as of 30 June 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2022-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"Market Cap\" data as reported by companiesmarketcap.com at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 June 2022 (CompaniesMarketCap).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Alphabet (Google)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amazon":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Apple":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Microsoft":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another company":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Alphabet (Google)","Amazon","Apple","Microsoft","Another company"],"target":"Apple"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the Hang Seng Index on 30 June 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2022-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Hong Kong's economy is being closely watched as its relationship with China continues to evolve (Al Jazeera, Reuters). The outcome will be determined using data reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 20,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 23,000 but less than 26,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 29,000 but less than 32,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"32,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 20,000","Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive","More than 23,000 but less than 26,000","Between 26,000 and 29,000, inclusive","More than 29,000 but less than 32,000","32,000 or more"],"target":"Between 20,000 and 23,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the US domestic auto inventory as of May 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-22","Closed_time":"2022-06-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Chip shortages and supply constraints have pushed domestic auto inventories to historic lows (CNBC, Car and Driver). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using US Bureau of Economic Analysis data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). In May 2019, the total domestic auto inventory was 644.8 (thousands).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 700.0 (thousands)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)","Between 100.0 (thousands) and 300.0 (thousands), inclusive","More than 300.0 (thousands) but fewer than 500.0 (thousands)","Between 500.0 (thousands) and 700.0 (thousands), inclusive","More than 700.0 (thousands)"],"target":"Fewer than 100.0 (thousands)"}
{"Question":"Before 9 July 2022, will the Israeli Knesset vote to dissolve itself?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2022-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Continued political turmoil in Israel has raised the prospect of an early dissolution of the Knesset, the Israeli parliament (Axios, Times of Israel, Israeli Constitution, see Section 34).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 4 February 2022 and 31 December 2022, will a country formally progress in the NATO accession process?","Started_time":"2022-02-04","Closed_time":"2022-06-29","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Amid high tensions with Ukraine and the West, Vladimir Putin has demanded that NATO freeze its expansion further into Eastern Europe (NPR, IntelliNews, Council on Foreign Relations). For the purposes of this question, formal progression in the NATO accession process consists of a country 1) reaching a new stage of any of the seven stages listed under the accession process section (NATO - Enlargement), 2) receiving an invitation to participate in a Membership Action Plan (NATO - Membership Action Plan), or 3) entering into \u201cIntensified Dialogue\u201d (NATO - Enlargement, see \"Aspirant countries\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which NHL team will win the 2022 Stanley Cup Final?","Started_time":"2021-11-05","Closed_time":"2022-06-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports"],"Description":"The 2022 Stanley Cup Final is scheduled to conclude no later than 30 June 2022 (Sportsnaut, NHL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Boston Bruins":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Carolina Hurricanes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Colorado Avalanche":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Edmonton Oilers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Florida Panthers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Minnesota Wild":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New York Rangers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"St. Louis Blues":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tampa Bay Lightning":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Toronto Maple Leafs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Vegas Golden Knights":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Washington Capitals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Boston Bruins","Carolina Hurricanes","Colorado Avalanche","Edmonton Oilers","Florida Panthers","Minnesota Wild","New York Rangers","St. Louis Blues","Tampa Bay Lightning","Toronto Maple Leafs","Vegas Golden Knights","Washington Capitals","Another team"],"target":"Colorado Avalanche"}
{"Question":"Will federal legislation mandating or enabling enhanced background checks for gun purchasers under the age of 21 in the US become law before 8 November 2022?","Started_time":"2022-06-17","Closed_time":"2022-06-25","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"In the wake of several mass shootings in the US, a bipartisan group of senators announced an agreement on various gun control and mental health policy changes for consideration in Congress (Senate.gov - John Cornyn, AP, Guardian). For the purposes of this question, \"enhanced\" means anything to increase scrutiny of a prospective gun purchaser, though it need not cover the purchase of every type of gun.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Dobbs v. Jackson Women\u2019s Health Organization, will the Supreme Court explicitly overrule Roe v. Wade?","Started_time":"2021-12-03","Closed_time":"2022-06-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The Supreme Court is reviewing what could be the biggest abortion case since its decision in Planned Parenthood v. Casey in 1992 (Oyez, SCOTUSblog, C-SPAN). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Gallup's 2022 Confidence in Institutions survey, what percentage of respondents will say they have either a \"Great deal\" or \"Quite a lot\" of confidence in the US Supreme Court?","Started_time":"2022-05-13","Closed_time":"2022-06-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"For decades, polling firm Gallup has taken annual surveys of Americans about their confidence in American institutions, including the Supreme Court (Gallup - Confidence in Institutions, Gallup - 2021 Confidence in Institutions). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2022 and the outcome determined using data for the same poll, expected to be conducted in June 2022 and released thereafter. Other Gallup polling regarding the Supreme Court would be immaterial. For 2021, 36% of respondents said they have either a \"Great deal\" or \"Quite a lot\" of confidence in the US Supreme Court.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 29%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Between 29% and 33%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"More than 33% but less than 39%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Between 39% and 43%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 43%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 29%","Between 29% and 33%, inclusive","More than 33% but less than 39%","Between 39% and 43%, inclusive","More than 43%"],"target":"Less than 29%"}
{"Question":"In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, will the Supreme Court rule that New York State's denial of applications for concealed-carry licenses for self-defense violated the Second Amendment?","Started_time":"2021-09-30","Closed_time":"2022-06-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"Two New York State citizens applied for firearm concealed-carry licenses for self-defense, but were denied because they failed to show a \"proper cause\" for obtaining the license (Oyez). Two men sued, claiming that the denial of licenses violated the Second Amendment (SCOTUSblog). They lost at the trial and appellate courts, and appealed to the US Supreme Court (Casetext, Supreme Court). A ruling in favor of any petitioner (New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc., Robert Nash, or Brandon Koch) would count. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 3 November 2021 (Supreme Court - November Argument Calendar).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 23 June 2022, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","Started_time":"2021-12-23","Closed_time":"2022-06-23","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his agenda are facing a number of challenges, including Brexit, COVID-19, and scandals (Economist, Axios, France 24, Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 12 billion worldwide?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2022-06-20","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"With new variants of COVID-19, there is a renewed emphasis on broadening vaccination efforts worldwide (Economist). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Financial Times (Financial Times). Scroll to the section \"Vaccination doses administered...\" For location enter \"World,\" then click the boxes \"Raw numbers,\" \"Cumulative,\" and \"Total doses.\" The value and date will appear when hovering over the \"World\" line in the resulting graphic (Financial Times, parameters are set with the link).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 April 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 October 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 April 2022","Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022","Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022","Between 1 August 2022 and 30 September 2022","Not before 1 October 2022"],"target":"Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2022 presidential election in Colombia?","Started_time":"2021-12-03","Closed_time":"2022-06-19","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"With President Iv\u00e1n Duque M\u00e1rquez term limited, the race to be the next president of Colombia is wide open (Economist, Americas Quarterly, Bloomberg). The first round of Colombia's next presidential election is scheduled for 29 May 2022, with a runoff scheduled for 19 June 2022, if needed.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Sergio Fajardo":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Juan Manuel Gal\u00e1n":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Alejandro Gaviria":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Federico Guti\u00e9rrez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Rodolfo Hern\u00e1ndez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Gustavo Petro":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Another candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Sergio Fajardo","Juan Manuel Gal\u00e1n","Alejandro Gaviria","Federico Guti\u00e9rrez","Rodolfo Hern\u00e1ndez","Gustavo Petro","Another candidate"],"target":"Gustavo Petro"}
{"Question":"How many seats will the Ensemble Citoyens (Citizens Together) alliance win in the next French National Assembly elections?","Started_time":"2022-05-06","Closed_time":"2022-06-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In November 2021, pro-Macron political groups in France formed Ensemble Citoyens (French for \"Citizens Together\"), a political alliance created in the run-up to 2022 presidential and legislative elections (Euractive, Guardian, French Ministry of the Interior [in French]. As of 6 May 2022, the seven member parties of Ensemble Citoyens were La R\u00e9publique En Marche!, Mouvement Democrate, Agir, Horizons, Territoires de Progres, En Commun!, and Parti Radical (Ensemble Citoyens [in French]). The next two-round legislative elections are scheduled for 12 June 2022 and 19 June 2022 (French Ministry of the Interior\u00a0[in French]).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 289":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between 289 and 321":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"Between 322 and 353":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Between 354 and 385":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 385":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 289","Between 289 and 321","Between 322 and 353","Between 354 and 385","More than 385"],"target":"Fewer than 289"}
{"Question":"Before 1 September 2022, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?","Started_time":"2021-12-30","Closed_time":"2022-06-17","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Health","US Politics","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Efforts within the WTO to agree on patent waivers for COVID-19 vaccines stalled in 2021 (Economist, US News & World Report, CNN). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO, SDG Knowledge Hub).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the spread between US high-yield corporate bonds and US Treasuries reach or exceed 5.00% before 1 October 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-17","Closed_time":"2022-06-16","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Interest rate volatility has subsided since the early days of the pandemic, but inflation and other factors could lead to new volatility (Economist, MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread\" (FRED). For 1 December 2021, the spread was 3.58%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2022 NBA Finals?","Started_time":"2021-11-05","Closed_time":"2022-06-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports"],"Description":"The 2021-22 NBA Finals is scheduled to conclude no later than 19 June 2022 (Sporting News, NBA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Atlanta Hawks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Brooklyn Nets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Dallas Mavericks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Denver Nuggets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Golden State Warriors":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"Los Angeles Clippers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Lakers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Miami Heat":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Milwaukee Bucks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Philadelphia 76ers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Phoenix Suns":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Utah Jazz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"}},"choices":["Atlanta Hawks","Brooklyn Nets","Dallas Mavericks","Denver Nuggets","Golden State Warriors","Los Angeles Clippers","Los Angeles Lakers","Miami Heat","Milwaukee Bucks","Philadelphia 76ers","Phoenix Suns","Utah Jazz","Another team"],"target":"Golden State Warriors"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price of wheat in the US on 15 June 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-25","Closed_time":"2022-06-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Agricultural commodity prices have been rising, and war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, both large wheat producers, may impact production (CNBC, ABC News). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by CNBC (CNBC). Wheat is priced per 5,000 bushels (CME).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 700.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 700.00 and 825.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 825.00 but less than 950.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 950.00 and 1,075.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"More than 1,075.00 but less than 1,200.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"1,200.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 700.00","Between 700.00 and 825.00, inclusive","More than 825.00 but less than 950.00","Between 950.00 and 1,075.00, inclusive","More than 1,075.00 but less than 1,200.00, inclusive","1,200.00 or more"],"target":"Between 950.00 and 1,075.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 15 June 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 4 May 2022?","Started_time":"2022-01-28","Closed_time":"2022-06-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 14-15 June 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"What will be the percentage change in the producer price index for writing and printing papers for May 2022 as compared to May 2021?","Started_time":"2021-06-24","Closed_time":"2022-06-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as first provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for \"Writing and printing papers\" (Commodity code 0913-01) in May 2022, expected in June 2022 (BLS - PPI). For May 2021, the percentage change from May 2020 was 3.2% (BLS - PPI Detailed Report May 2021, see page 49). For historical data, visit https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/ppi\/. Under \"PPI Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Commodity Data including 'Headline' FD-ID indexes.\" For \"1 Select a Group,\" select \"09 Pulp, paper, and allied products.\" For \"2 Select one or more Items,\" find and select \"091301 Writing and printing papers.\" For \"3 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Not Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5.5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.0%","Between 1.0% and 2.5%, inclusive","More than 2.5% but less than 4.0%","Between 4.0% and 5.5%, inclusive","More than 5.5%"],"target":"More than 5.5%"}
{"Question":"What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Jurassic World Dominion, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2022-03-18","Closed_time":"2022-06-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Originally scheduled for release in 2021, Jurassic World Dominion is the third film in the current series (Total Film). The outcome will determined using data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the weekend of 10-12 June 2022 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 10 June 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $100 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"More than $150 million but less than $200 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"Between $200 million and $250 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $250 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $100 million","Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive","More than $150 million but less than $200 million","Between $200 million and $250 million, inclusive","More than $250 million"],"target":"Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 4 February 2022 and 4 June 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for daily new COVID-19 cases in New Zealand?","Started_time":"2022-02-04","Closed_time":"2022-06-04","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"While New Zealand has fared relatively well in the COVID-19 pandemic, the rise of the Omicron variant has brought a new wave (Guardian, New Zealand Herald, covid19.govt.nz). The outcome will be determined using 7-day rolling average data as reported by Our World in Data (Our World in Data, parameters set in link ('New Zealand' selected on the left side, Metric set to 'Confirmed cases,' Interval set to '7-day rolling average,' and the 'Relative to Population' box unchecked)). Data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 March 2022 would not be evaluated until 8 March 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2,000 and 5,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5,000 but less that 10,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 20,000 but less than 40,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"40,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2,000","Between 2,000 and 5,000, inclusive","More than 5,000 but less that 10,000","Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive","More than 20,000 but less than 40,000","40,000 or more"],"target":"More than 20,000 but less than 40,000"}
{"Question":"Between 8 March 2022 and 7 June 2022, will President Biden's approval rating fall below 38.5%?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-06-08","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). The question would close as of the day for which a daily estimate figure is below 38.5%, but only after confirming the daily estimate figure at least three days later.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce it will discontinue its monthly net asset purchases under its Asset purchase program (APP) before 10 June 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-25","Closed_time":"2022-06-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 10 March 2022, the ECB announced it would end APP in the third quarter of 2022 if certain conditions were met (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using press releases from the ECB on \"Monetary policy decisions\" (ECB - Press Releases). In its 10 March 2022 statement, the ECB stated that \"Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to \u20ac40 billion in April, \u20ac30 billion in May and \u20ac20 billion in June. The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect its evolving assessment of the outlook. If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases, the Governing Council will conclude net purchases under the APP in the third quarter.\" (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Governing Council has decided it will conclude the APP (e.g., the ECB announced in December 2021 that it would discontinue its Pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) at the end of March 2022 (ECB - Monetary policy decisions 16 December 2021, Politico)). Conditional announcements (e.g., \"If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases\") would not count. The ECB meeting calendar may be found here: https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/calendars\/mgcgc\/html\/index.en.html.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the Conservative Party hold a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-04","Closed_time":"2022-06-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","The Sky News Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Prime Minister Johnson is facing pushback from within his own Conservative Party in the wake of various scandals, including challenges to his leadership of the party (Sky News, France 24). If 15% of the Conservative Party members in parliament submit letters of no confidence to the \"1922 Committee,\" a party leadership vote would be triggered (Sky News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and it will pass":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Yes, but it will not pass":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64%"}},"choices":["Yes, and it will pass","Yes, but it will not pass","No"],"target":"Yes, but it will not pass"}
{"Question":"In its 2022 report, will the Board of Trustees for Medicare project the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund (\"HI,\" aka Medicare Part A) to be 2025 or before?","Started_time":"2021-10-01","Closed_time":"2022-06-02","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Health","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The Boards of Trustees for Medicare (also Boards) report annually to the Congress on the financial operations and actuarial status of the program (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services). The board of trustees is expected to issue its 2022 report in the spring or summer of 2022. In its 2021 report, the board projected the year of asset depletion of the Hospital Insurance trust fund to be 2025 (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services - 2021 Trustee Report, see page 6 in the report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Rafael Nadal win the 2022 Men's French Open?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-06-05","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The 2022 French Open is scheduled for 16 May through 5 June 2022 (French Open).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What percentage of Germany's population will be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 1 June 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-19","Closed_time":"2022-06-01","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Germany faces record high number of COVID-19 infections, vaccination numbers have been object of special attention (Deutsche Welle, Guardian, Deutsche Welle). The question will be suspended on 31 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Our World in Data for the \"People fully vaccinated\" metric, relative to population, as displayed here at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 June 2022: https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/covid-vaccinations?country=DEU. For example, Germany's share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 as of 14 November 2021 was 66.94%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 70.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 70.00% and 75.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 80.00% and 85.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 85.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 70.00%","Between 70.00% and 75.00%, inclusive","More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%","Between 80.00% and 85.00%, inclusive","More than 85.00%"],"target":"More than 75.00% but less than 80.00%"}
{"Question":"What will Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval rating be in May 2022, according to the Levada Center?","Started_time":"2022-03-11","Closed_time":"2022-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Society","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The outcome determined using data as first reported by the Levada Center for May 2022 (Levada, see \"Putin's Approval Rating\"). Russian President Vladimir Putin had an approval rating of 71% in February 2022, according to the Levada Center (see \"Do you approve the activities of V. Putin as the President (Prime Minister) of Russia?\" here: https:\/\/www.levada.ru\/en\/2022\/02\/18\/approval-of-institutions-the-state-of-affairs-in-the-country-trust-in-politicians-2\/).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 40.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 50.0% but less than 60.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 60.0% and 70.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 70.0% but less than 80.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Between 80.0% and 90.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"More than 90.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 40.0%","Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive","More than 50.0% but less than 60.0%","Between 60.0% and 70.0%, inclusive","More than 70.0% but less than 80.0%","Between 80.0% and 90.0%, inclusive","More than 90.0%"],"target":"Between 80.0% and 90.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for Top Gun: Maverick reach or exceed $45 million, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2022-05-28","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"Top Gun: Maverick is the first sequel to the 1986 blockbuster Top Gun (IMDb). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using non-estimate data as reported by Box Office Mojo for the Memorial Day weekend of 27-30 May 2022 (Box Office Mojo, see \"Domestic Weekend\"). The film is scheduled to be released in theaters on 27 May 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization on 31 May 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-07","Closed_time":"2022-05-31","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Facebook has come under renewed scrutiny with the leak of thousands of internal corporate documents (NPR). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $600 billion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $1.35 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $600 billion","Between $600 billion and $850 billion, inclusive","More than $850 billion but less than $1.10 trillion","Between $1.10 trillion and $1.35 trillion, inclusive","More than $1.35 trillion"],"target":"Less than $600 billion"}
{"Question":"Between 2 May 2022 and 27 May 2022, will the 7-day moving average of new daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 120,000?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2022-05-28","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The US saw a rise in COVID cases in April 2022 (Axios). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC (CDC COVID Data Tracker). Data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least four calendar days later (e.g., data for 10 May 2022 would not be evaluated until 14 May 2022).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Emirates airline revenues for FY 2021-22 reach at least 75% of FY 2019-20 revenues, or AED 68,979 million?","Started_time":"2021-09-24","Closed_time":"2022-04-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"The COVID-19 pandemic hit airlines particularly hard, with Emirates airline's total revenue for the fiscal\/financial year (FY) 2020-21 declining 66% to AED 30.9 billion, or US$ 8.4 billion (Emirates, Emirates - 2021 Annual Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using data reported in Emirates Group's (the airline's parent company) annual report for FY 2021-22, expected in the summer of 2022 (Emirates Group). Emirate Group's FY 2021-22 runs from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2022. For FY 2019-20, Emirates airline reported revenue of AED 91,972 million (Emirates - 2021 Annual Report, see \"Revenue and other operating income\" on page 188).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will a team from England win the 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-05-28","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The 2021-22 UEFA Champions League Final is scheduled for 28 May 2022 (UEFA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the Turkish lira against the US dollar on 26 May 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-26","Closed_time":"2022-05-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Turkish lira hit record lows in November 2021 amid President Erdogan's economic policies and growing influence over the country's central bank (Deutsche Welle, Al Jazeera). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 8.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 8.00 and 10.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 10.00 but lower than 12.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12.00 and 14.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 14.00 but lower than 16.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"16.00 or higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Lower than 8.00","Between 8.00 and 10.00, inclusive","Higher than 10.00 but lower than 12.00","Between 12.00 and 14.00, inclusive","Higher than 14.00 but lower than 16.00","16.00 or higher"],"target":"16.00 or higher"}
{"Question":"Between 8 March 2022 and 25 May 2022, will the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screen 2.4 million or more travelers in a single day?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-05-26","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"TSA checkpoint travel numbers\" as reported by the TSA (TSA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the Republican primary for governor of Georgia in 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-04","Closed_time":"2022-05-24","Challenges_list":["2022 US Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp, former US Senator David Perdue, and others are battling for the Republican nomination for governor (Ballotpedia, 270 to Win). The primary election is scheduled for 24 May 2022, with a primary runoff set for 21 June 2022, if needed (Georgia Secretary of State).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Brian Kemp":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"David Perdue":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Brian Kemp","David Perdue","Someone else"],"target":"Brian Kemp"}
{"Question":"Will President Volodymyr Zelensky either flee Ukraine or cease to be its president before 25 May 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-24","Closed_time":"2022-05-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As Russia invades Ukraine beyond the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics in eastern Ukraine, there is speculation as to how far Russia is willing to go (BBC, NPR). Whether or not Zelensky has fled Ukraine will be determined using credible open source media reporting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 15 June 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-18","Closed_time":"2022-05-21","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"After Boeing's first attempt to get its new spacecraft to dock with the ISS failed, the company is planning another attempt in May 2022 (Economist,\u00a0Spaceflight Now, Space).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 8 March 2022 and 20 May 2022, will shares of Meta (fka Facebook) close above $238.00 per share?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-05-20","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC). The threshold would not be changed in the event of a stock split (Investopedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone reach or exceed 7.0% in April 2022 (2022M04)?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-05-01","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 30 April 2022 and the outcome determined using the annual rate of change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as first reported by Eurostat for \"Euro area - 19 countries (from 2015)\" (Eurostat).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which of the following songs will rank highest on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of 21 May 2022?","Started_time":"2022-04-29","Closed_time":"2022-05-17","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 16 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Billboard for the \"Week of May 21, 2022,\" expected on Tuesday 17 May 2022 (Billboard). \"Ranking highest\" means ranking highest among the five songs and does not necessarily mean ranking first overall.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"As It Was, Harry Styles":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"Enemy, Imagine Dragons X JID":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"First Class, Jack Harlow":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Heat Waves, Glass Animals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Stay, The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["As It Was, Harry Styles","Enemy, Imagine Dragons X JID","First Class, Jack Harlow","Heat Waves, Glass Animals","Stay, The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber"],"target":"First Class, Jack Harlow"}
{"Question":"Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 15 May 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-05-15","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a \"hard border\" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (BBC). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland\/Northern Ireland).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Lebanon next hold parliamentary elections?","Started_time":"2021-11-19","Closed_time":"2022-05-15","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Lebanese parliamentary elections are due in the spring of 2022, though political and economic circumstances have raised fears that they may be postponed (Economist, Al Jazeera, The National).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 April 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"Not before 1 June 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Before 1 April 2022","Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022","Not before 1 June 2022"],"target":"Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2022 presidential election in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2021-12-03","Closed_time":"2022-05-09","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Various familiar names are in the race to be the next president of the Philippines, scheduled for 9 May 2022 (Economist, Bloomberg, NPR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Christopher \"Bong\" Go":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ferdinand \"Bongbong\" Marcos Jr.":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Francisco \"Isko\" Moreno":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Manny \"PacMan\" Pacquiao":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Maria \"Leni\" Robredo":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Another candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Christopher \"Bong\" Go","Ferdinand \"Bongbong\" Marcos Jr.","Francisco \"Isko\" Moreno","Manny \"PacMan\" Pacquiao","Maria \"Leni\" Robredo","Another candidate"],"target":"Ferdinand \"Bongbong\" Marcos Jr."}
{"Question":"Which political party will win the most seats in the next Northern Ireland Assembly election?","Started_time":"2021-12-03","Closed_time":"2022-05-05","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 5 May 2022 (Economist, Atlantic, Belfast Telegraph, Northern Ireland Act 1998). If the election date is changed, the question's suspend date will be moved to the day before the new election date. If there is a tie for most seats, the question will be resolved in favor of the party with the most first preference votes (e.g., NI Assembly, see Table 5.1).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Democratic Unionist Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Sinn F\u00e9in":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"Another party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Democratic Unionist Party","Sinn F\u00e9in","Another party"],"target":"Sinn F\u00e9in"}
{"Question":"How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported as of 1 May 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-23","Closed_time":"2022-05-01","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health","US Policy"],"Description":"The rise of the Omicron variant is raising concerns about COVID-19 in the US over the winter (USA Today, CNN). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the CDC (CDC, parameters are set with the link). The data for 1 May 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 6 May 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 900,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,275,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 900,000","Between 900,000 and 975,000, inclusive","More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000","Between 1,050,000 and 1,125,000, inclusive","More than 1,125,000 but fewer than 1,200,000","Between 1,200,000 and 1,275,000 inclusive","More than 1,275,000"],"target":"More than 975,000 but fewer than 1,050,000"}
{"Question":"Will the FAO Food Price Index for April 2022 reach or exceed 150.0?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-05-01","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 30 April 2022 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (FAO, see table near bottom of page). The value for April 2021 was 122.1.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 4 May 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 March 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-17","Closed_time":"2022-05-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its May meeting is scheduled for 3-4 May 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price for aluminum per metric ton (MT) on 29 April 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-29","Closed_time":"2022-04-29","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Aluminum prices have risen dramatically in 2021, with pressures from both supply and demand sides (Yahoo, Capital.com). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Bloomberg for the three-month futures contract on the London Metal Exchange (Bloomberg, London Metal Exchange).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than $2,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"$3,200 or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"}},"choices":["Lower than $2,000","Between $2,000 and $2,300, inclusive","Higher than $2,300 but lower than $2,600","Between $2,600 and $2,900, inclusive","Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200","$3,200 or higher"],"target":"Higher than $2,900 but lower than $3,200"}
{"Question":"How many public Level 2 and DC Fast electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the US as of 29 April 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-29","Closed_time":"2022-04-29","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Focus is being directed at electric vehicle charging infrastructure in the US (The Hill). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 29 April 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET (Alternative Fueling Station Locator, parameters are set with the link). Data on public Level 2 and DC Fast charge stations can be found by selecting the \"Advanced Filters\" tab.  First select \"Location\" on the left and set \"Country\" to be \"United States\" while keeping \"State\/Territory\" to be \"All.\" Then select \"Fuel\" on the left. Under \"Filter by Fuel Type,\" select \"Electric\" and set \"Charger types\" to both \"Level 2\" and \"DC Fast\" while keeping \"Connectors\" and \"Networks\" to be \"All.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 49,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 49,000 and 53,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 53,000 but fewer than 57,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 57,000 and 61,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 61,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 49,000","Between 49,000 and 53,000, inclusive","More than 53,000 but fewer than 57,000","Between 57,000 and 61,000, inclusive","More than 61,000"],"target":"Fewer than 49,000"}
{"Question":"What will be the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US for the week ending 25 April 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-18","Closed_time":"2022-04-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The price of gasoline in the US hit all-time highs in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Car and Driver, CBS News). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for \"Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices\" (EIA, see table).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.300":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.300 and 3.600, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.600 but less than 3.900":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.900 and 4.200, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"More than 4.200 but less than 4.500":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 4.500 and 4.800, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4.800":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.300","Between 3.300 and 3.600, inclusive","More than 3.600 but less than 3.900","Between 3.900 and 4.200, inclusive","More than 4.200 but less than 4.500","Between 4.500 and 4.800, inclusive","More than 4.800"],"target":"More than 4.200 but less than 4.500"}
{"Question":"Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","Started_time":"2021-02-26","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI (SIPRI, see the \"Data for all countries\" spreadsheet under the \"Excel file\" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (\"Share of GDP sheet,\" cell BU99).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?","Started_time":"2021-10-15","Closed_time":"2022-04-24","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"France is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 10 April 2022, with a possible runoff two weeks later (Economist,\u00a0France24). Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is expected to formally announce his candidacy in 2022 (Politico.eu, Politico.eu - France Poll of Polls).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"National Rally (Rassemblement National)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"The Republic Forward (La R\u00e9publique En Marche!)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"The Republicans (Les R\u00e9publicains)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["National Rally (Rassemblement National)","The Republic Forward (La R\u00e9publique En Marche!)","The Republicans (Les R\u00e9publicains)","Unbowed France (La France Insoumise)","None of the above"],"target":"The Republic Forward (La R\u00e9publique En Marche!)"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the vote will Marine Le Pen win in the 2022 French presidential election runoff?","Started_time":"2022-04-11","Closed_time":"2022-04-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In a repeat of the 2017 French presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will again face each other the runoff for the 2022 election, scheduled for 24 April 2022 (Politico.eu, French Ministry of the Interior).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 35.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 40.0% but less than 45.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"More than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 35.0%","Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive","More than 40.0% but less than 45.0%","Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive","More than 50.0%"],"target":"More than 40.0% but less than 45.0%"}
{"Question":"Between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022, will the S&P 500 Index close at an all-time high?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-04-22","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC between 8 March 2022 and 22 April 2022 (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 May 2022, will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 3.6 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-04-14","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC (PHAC). Total cases are displayed with the map graphic. For daily case data, click the \".CSV\" button to the right of the map. See daily number data (\"numtoday\") associated with daily entries for \"Canada\" under \"prname.\" Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 May 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many seats in the National Assembly will the Fidesz party's list win in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?","Started_time":"2021-10-29","Closed_time":"2022-04-03","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022","Russia-Ukraine Conflict"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Led by Viktor Orban, a coalition of Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP) has held either a two-thirds supermajority or a majority of seats in the National Assembly since 2010 (Economist,\u00a0Budapest Beacon, CNBC). Various opposition groups have united in an effort to unseat them (New Statesman, The Hill). The next parliamentary election is expected to be held in the spring of 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"},"Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more)","A majority but not a two-thirds supermajority (between 100 seats and 132 seats)","Less than a majority (fewer than 100 seats)"],"target":"A two-thirds supermajority (133 seats or more)"}
{"Question":"Will Marine Le Pen place either first or second in the 2022 French presidential election?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-04-10","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The French presidential election is scheduled for 10 April 2022 (Euronews). Results of a runoff would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?","Started_time":"2022-01-14","Closed_time":"2022-04-07","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 (NPR, CNN). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., Supreme Court).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023","Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023","No"],"target":"Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023"}
{"Question":"Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed by the Senate before 1 May 2022?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-04-07","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"On 25 February 2022, President Joe Biden announced Ketanji Brown Jackson as his choice to replace the retiring Justice Stephen Breyer (The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 24 December 2021 and 31 March 2022, what will be the highest seven-day average for COVID-19 patients in the UK to be admitted to [a] hospital?","Started_time":"2021-12-23","Closed_time":"2022-04-01","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The rise of the Omicron variant in the UK has raised fears of a \"tidal wave\" of COVID-19 cases (CNN, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK Health Security Agency (UK Health Security Agency, see \"Patients admitted to hospital\" set to \"Daily\"). Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least seven calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 8 January 2022). If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,500 and 2,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2,000 but less that 2,500":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 2,500 and 3,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,000 but less than 3,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,500 and 4,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1,500","Between 1,500 and 2,000, inclusive","More than 2,000 but less that 2,500","Between 2,500 and 3,000, inclusive","More than 3,000 but less than 3,500","Between 3,500 and 4,000, inclusive","More than 4,000"],"target":"More than 2,000 but less that 2,500"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2021-09-10","Closed_time":"2022-03-31","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 7 September 2021, Biden's approval rating was 45.3%. The data for 31 March 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 April 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 40.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 55.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 40.0%","Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive","Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0%","Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive","Higher than 55.0%"],"target":"Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Dubai's EXPO 2020 attract 25 million visits?","Started_time":"2021-09-24","Closed_time":"2022-04-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The six-month EXPO 2020, initially delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic, is scheduled for 1 October 2021 through 31 March 2022 (EXPO2020, Yahoo, The National). Virtual visits would not count. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2022 and the outcome determined using final data when available.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?","Started_time":"2021-08-20","Closed_time":"2022-04-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","The Sky News Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Sir Keir was elected to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the UK's Labour Party in April 2020 and has faced dissention within his party's ranks (Sky News, Guardian, Sky News). The Labour Party requires that a challenger or challengers be nominated by 20% of all Labour Party MPs (Institute for Government, Labour Party Rule Book 2020, see Chapter 4, Clause II).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds next invert?","Started_time":"2022-03-25","Closed_time":"2022-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia,  MarketWatch). The outcome will be determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for \"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity\" (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 23 April 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 23 April 2022 and 20 May 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 21 May 2022 and 17 June 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 18 June 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 23 April 2022","Between 23 April 2022 and 20 May 2022","Between 21 May 2022 and 17 June 2022","Not before 18 June 2022"],"target":"Before 23 April 2022"}
{"Question":"What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?","Started_time":"2021-10-01","Closed_time":"2022-03-31","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Health","Environment"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data from AirNow (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data, go to https:\/\/www.airnow.gov\/international\/us-embassies-and-consulates\/, choose \"Dubai\" under \"Select a City,\" and click on the \"Historical\" tab. Click on the file for \"2022 PM2.5 YTD,\" when available. Add all valid data points for the column titled \"AQI\" (invalid entries are coded as -999) with a \"3\" under \"Month\" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in March 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were, respectively, 126.05, 101.03, 94.58, and 100.49. This question will be resolved when complete data for the month of March 2022 are first available. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 85.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 95.00 but less than 105.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"More than 115.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 85.00","Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive","More than 95.00 but less than 105.00","Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive","More than 115.00"],"target":"Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Major League Baseball's (MLB's) Opening Day occur on 31 March 2022?","Started_time":"2022-01-28","Closed_time":"2022-03-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Baseball club owners locked players out of their facilities after their collective bargaining agreement with the MLB Players Association expired on 1 December 2021, though negotiations between the parties continue (ESPN, CBS Sports, MLBPA). As of 28 January 2022, the regular season was scheduled to begin on 31 March 2022 (MLB). Whether so-called replacement players are fielded is immaterial, and not all games must be played to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?","Started_time":"2021-07-23","Closed_time":"2022-03-30","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that (USA Today, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 April 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2021","Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021","Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022","Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022","Not before 1 April 2022"],"target":"Not before 1 April 2022"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will North Korea launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000 km?","Started_time":"2022-01-14","Closed_time":"2022-03-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"While North Korea tested a number of weapons in the past, the country has not launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) since 2017 (Deutsche Welle, 38 North). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched ICBM will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have \"listened to a podcast in the last month?\"","Started_time":"2021-05-07","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The Infinite Dial is an annual survey of digital behavior conducted by Edison Research, typically conducted in January each year and released in March (Edison Research). According to The Infinite Dial 2021, 41% of the U.S. population age 12+ \"listened to a podcast in the last month\" (The Infinite Dial 2021, see page 56). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once The Infinite Dial 2022 is released, typically in March.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 42%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 42% and 44%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"More than 44% but less than 48%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"},"48% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Less than 42%","Between 42% and 44%, inclusive","More than 44% but less than 48%","48% or more"],"target":"Less than 42%"}
{"Question":"Will the closing yield for the US 10-Year Treasury reach or exceed 2.25% before 1 July 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-10","Closed_time":"2022-03-23","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Treasury bond yields are tracked for many purposes (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). As of 8 December 2021, the yield was 1.52%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 10 March 2022 and 29 April 2022, will the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US be higher than 4.15%?","Started_time":"2022-03-15","Closed_time":"2022-03-17","Challenges_list":["Noise: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Open"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","Started_time":"2020-07-10","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["2022 Long-term Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past (Reuters,\u00a0Shine.cn,\u00a0CNBC,\u00a0Inside EVs). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million (Caam.org\u00a0[in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g.,\u00a0Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics,\u00a0Caam.org.cn\u00a0[in Chinese],\u00a0Caam.org.cn\u00a0[in English],\u00a0China Daily).This question is the longer-term companion of question\u00a0#1697. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 2.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"More than 4.0 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 2.2 million","Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive","More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million","Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive","More than 4.0 million"],"target":"More than 4.0 million"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 16 March 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 26 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-05","Closed_time":"2022-03-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 15-16 March 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Higher"}
{"Question":"Between 27 February 2022 and 27 August 2022, will Russia be restricted or banned from access to the SWIFT banking system?","Started_time":"2022-02-26","Closed_time":"2022-03-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Amid various sanctions being imposed against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, countries are considering whether to block Russian access to SWIFT (BBC, CBS News, Financial Times). A SWIFT ban on one or more Russian institutions would count. For more information on the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication see https:\/\/www.swift.com\/about_swift\/index, https:\/\/www.swift.com\/about-us\/legal\/compliance-0\/swift-and-sanctions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in South Korea?","Started_time":"2021-12-03","Closed_time":"2022-03-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"South Korea is scheduled to hold its next presidential election on 9 March 2022  (US News, Korea Herald). As of launch, Lee Jae-myung was the Democratic Party of Korea nominee, while Yoon Seok-youl was the People Power Party nominee (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Democratic Party of Korea":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"People Power Party":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"Another candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Democratic Party of Korea","People Power Party","Another candidate"],"target":"People Power Party"}
{"Question":"When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next be 50,000 or lower?","Started_time":"2021-12-30","Closed_time":"2022-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (CDC). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last which was last under 50,000 on 22 July 2021. Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least five calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 6 January 2022), and data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 August 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 February 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 August 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 February 2022","Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022","Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022","Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022","Not before 1 August 2022"],"target":"Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022"}
{"Question":"In United States v. Tsarnaev, will the Supreme Court reinstate the death sentence imposed against Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?","Started_time":"2021-09-10","Closed_time":"2022-03-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In 2015, Tsarnaev was sentenced to death for his role in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and its aftermath (ABC News). The First Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the sentence, finding that the trial court failed to pay sufficient attention to potential jury bias (Casetext, CNN, American Bar Association). The government appealed, and the Supreme Court agreed in March 2021 to hear the case (Oyez, BBC). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2021 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the price of steel plate in the US be higher as of 28 February 2022 than it was as of 24 January 2022, according to Steel Benchmarker?","Started_time":"2022-02-11","Closed_time":"2022-02-28","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Steel prices have seen large gains as inflation grips the US economy (NPR). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by SteelBenchmarker (SteelBenchmarker, see USA FOB mill, \"Dollars per Metric Tonne,\" page 10 as of launch). As of 24 January 2022, the price for \"Plate\" was 2,015.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will President Biden announce as his choice to replace Justice Breyer on the US Supreme Court?","Started_time":"2022-02-11","Closed_time":"2022-02-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"With Justice Breyer's retirement announcement, President Biden has begun a search to find his replacement (Politico, CBS News, Daily Mail, US Supreme Court).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"J. Michelle Childs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Anita Earls":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ketanji Brown Jackson":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Candace Jackson-Akiwumi":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Leondra Kruger":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Melissa Murray":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Wilhelmina Wright":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Biden will not announce a choice before 1 July 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["J. Michelle Childs","Anita Earls","Ketanji Brown Jackson","Candace Jackson-Akiwumi","Leondra Kruger","Melissa Murray","Wilhelmina Wright","Someone else","Biden will not announce a choice before 1 July 2022"],"target":"Ketanji Brown Jackson"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and\/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 15 September 2022?","Started_time":"2021-11-05","Closed_time":"2022-02-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West (Politico, REF\/RL). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and\/or law enforcement of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 30 December 2021 and 31 May 2022, will NATO and\/or a NATO member state accuse Russian national military forces of invading Ukraine?","Started_time":"2021-12-30","Closed_time":"2022-02-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"Tensions remain high between Russia and Ukraine, which includes a major military buildup near the border of Ukraine that concerns NATO and others (CNN, Al Jazeera, BBC). For the purposes of this question, \"invading Ukraine\" would mean Russia sending ground national military forces into Ukraine without consent from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv. Accusations regarding actions in Crimea would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, invading the Donetsk and\/or Luhansk Oblasts only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and\/or Luhansk Oblasts only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, invading the Donetsk and\/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, invading the Donetsk and\/or Luhansk Oblasts only","Yes, invading Ukrainian territory outside of Donetsk and\/or Luhansk Oblasts only","Yes, invading the Donetsk and\/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory","No"],"target":"Yes, invading the Donetsk and\/or Luhansk Oblasts as well as other Ukrainian territory"}
{"Question":"Will Russia officially recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and\/or the Luhansk People's Republic in Ukraine as independent states before 1 September 2022?","Started_time":"2022-02-18","Closed_time":"2022-02-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 15 February 2022, the Russian Duma, or lower house of parliament, voted to ask President Putin to recognize two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent (Russian Duma, Deutsche Welle, Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty). The Duma passed a similar resolution regarding South Ossetia and Abkhazia before then-President Medvedev recognized both of those regions in Georgia as independent states (NPR, NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 13 February 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation in Iran or at sea between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and those of either Israel or a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member state?","Started_time":"2021-08-13","Closed_time":"2022-02-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Regional tensions involving Iran continue (Reuters, Washington Post, BBC). The GCC is a group of six Arab countries bordering the Persian Gulf (GCC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military or law enforcement forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the Government of Ontario cease to require people to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination to use indoor areas of restaurants?","Started_time":"2021-10-08","Closed_time":"2022-02-12","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Canadian province of Ontario began requiring proof of vaccination in late September to address a rise in cases (Ontario.ca, CBC, CTV News). Limited exceptions to the requirement (e.g., use a washroom, place an order) are immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 19 November 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 12 February 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 19 November 2021","Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","Between 1 January 2022 and 11 February 2022","Not before 12 February 2022"],"target":"Not before 12 February 2022"}
{"Question":"Will the US Truck Tonnage Index reach or exceed 120.0 before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-06-25","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The truck tonnage index measures gross tonnage of freight moved by motor carriers in the US (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as first reported by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). If the question is still open after November 2021 figures are reported, the question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once figures are reported for December 2021, expected in January 2022. Revisions would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","Started_time":"2021-02-12","Closed_time":"2022-02-05","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 1 February 2021, the military (aka \"Defence Services\") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution (Reuters, BBC, Myanmar Times.) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services \"shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary\" (Myanmar Constitution).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How much cash on hand will the following *three Donald Trump-affiliated political action committees (PACs) have combined as of 31 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-09-10","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda","By midyear 2021, former President Trump's political groups had over $102 million in cash on hand (Politico, ABC News, donaldjtrump.com). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Election Commission for the second half of 2021, expected in early 2022. For the purposes of this question, the three relevant Trump-affiliated PACs are:","Save America (FEC.gov - Save America, Mid-year Report 2021)","Make America Great Again Action Inc (FEC.gov - Make America Great Again Action Inc,\u00a0Mid-year Report 2021)"],"Description":"Make America Great Again PAC (FEC.gov - Make America Great Again PAC,\u00a0Mid-year Report 2021)","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $100 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"More than $150 million but less than $200 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"$200 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Less than $100 million","Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive","More than $150 million but less than $200 million","$200 million or more"],"target":"Between $100 million and $150 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 1 February 2022?","Started_time":"2021-08-20","Closed_time":"2022-02-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","The Sky News Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a \"hard border\" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (Sky News, UK in a Changing Europe, House of Commons Library). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Section 1 or Section 4 of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland\/Northern Ireland, see ANNEX 7).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 February 2022, will the Knowledge and Human Development Authority (KHDA) announce that all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will cease to be face-to-face only?","Started_time":"2021-09-24","Closed_time":"2022-02-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"In August 2021, KHDA announced that \u201c[f]rom October 3rd 2021, all teaching and learning at Dubai private schools will be face-to-face only. After this date, students who wish to continue with distance learning must provide a medical certificate issued by Dubai Health Authority. Class groups or grade\/year levels may temporarily switch to distance learning if positive cases of Covid-19 are detected\u201d (KHDA). An announcement about a temporary change would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many seats in the Assembly of the Republic will the Socialist Party win in the next Portuguese parliamentary election?","Started_time":"2021-12-10","Closed_time":"2022-01-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The next Portuguese parliamentary election is scheduled for 30 January 2022 (EU Reporter, Politico.eu, Politico.eu - Poll of Polls). The Socialist Party won 108 seats in the 2019 Portuguese parliamentary election (Assembly of the Republic).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 96":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 96 and 105":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Between 106 and 115":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"More than 115":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 96","Between 96 and 105","Between 106 and 115","More than 115"],"target":"More than 115"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the NFC Championship?","Started_time":"2021-11-19","Closed_time":"2022-01-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The NFC Championship game is scheduled for 30 January 2022 (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Arizona Cardinals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Carolina Panthers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Dallas Cowboys":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Green Bay Packers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Rams":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"Minnesota Vikings":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New Orleans Saints":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tampa Bay Buccaneers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"}},"choices":["Arizona Cardinals","Carolina Panthers","Dallas Cowboys","Green Bay Packers","Los Angeles Rams","Minnesota Vikings","New Orleans Saints","Tampa Bay Buccaneers","Another team"],"target":"Los Angeles Rams"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?","Started_time":"2021-11-19","Closed_time":"2022-01-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The AFC Championship game is scheduled for 30 January 2022 (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Baltimore Ravens":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Buffalo Bills":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Indianapolis Colts":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Kansas City Chiefs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"},"Los Angeles Chargers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New England Patriots":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pittsburg Steelers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tennessee Titans":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"}},"choices":["Baltimore Ravens","Buffalo Bills","Indianapolis Colts","Kansas City Chiefs","Los Angeles Chargers","New England Patriots","Pittsburg Steelers","Tennessee Titans","Another team"],"target":"Another team"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 26 January 2022, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 15 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-09-24","Closed_time":"2022-01-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 25-26 January 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"When will the Federal Reserve announce it will conclude its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2022-01-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"On 3 November 2021, the Federal Reserve announced it will taper its monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities begun early in the pandemic (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). In its 3 November statement, the FOMC stated that \"the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook\" (Federal Reserve - November 2021 Statement). The date the bond buying would conclude is immaterial, as the question would close upon the announcement that the Committee has decided it will conclude the asset purchase program (e.g., 2014 Federal Reserve - October 2014 Statement). Conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations would be immaterial (NY Fed).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 4 May 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 4 May 2022 and 26 July 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 27 July 2022 and 1 November 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2 November 2022 and 14 December 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 15 December 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 4 May 2022","Between 4 May 2022 and 26 July 2022","Between 27 July 2022 and 1 November 2022","Between 2 November 2022 and 14 December 2022","Not before 15 December 2022"],"target":"Before 4 May 2022"}
{"Question":"Between 19 November 2021 and 31 December 2022, how many countries will sign their first Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) memorandum of understanding with the People's Republic of China (PRC)?","Started_time":"2021-11-19","Closed_time":"2022-01-21","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"The BRI was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping (Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House, Brookings Institution, Diplomat). As of the launch of this question, at least 139 countries have signed a BRI memorandum of understanding (Belt and Road Portal\u00a0[in Mandarin], Council on Foreign Relations). Signings by subnational governments would not count (e.g., France 24).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1 or 2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3 or 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5 or 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"7 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["0","1 or 2","3 or 4","5 or 6","7 or more"],"target":"7 or more"}
{"Question":"What will be the Chinese renminbi's share as a global payments currency in December 2021, according to SWIFT?","Started_time":"2021-04-09","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"China is looking to advance the internationalization of the renminbi (Reuters, Bloomberg). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for December 2021 reported by SWIFT in its RMB Tracker monthly report when first released, expected in January 2022 (SWIFT). The relevant data can be found in the report's graph titled \"RMB's share as a global payments currency.\" In its March 2021 report, SWIFT reported the RMB's February 2021 share as a global payments currency at 2.20% (SWIFT - March 2021 Report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"3.00% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.00%","Between 2.00% and 2.50%, inclusive","More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%","3.00% or more"],"target":"More than 2.50% but less than 3.00%"}
{"Question":"When will the 14-day average of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California next reach or exceed 12,000?","Started_time":"2021-08-06","Closed_time":"2022-01-18","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health","US Politics"],"Description":"COVID-19 hospitalizations have been increasing in California with the advent of new variants (Guardian, KTLA). The data can be found under the plot titled \"COVID-19 hospitalized patients in California\" with the \"Hospitalized\" option selected (COVID19.ca.gov). The 14-day average, which can be accessed by hovering over the plot, was 3,906.6 on 3 August 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 15 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Not before 1 February 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 15 September 2021","Between 15 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","Between 1 November 2021 and 15 December 2021","Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022","Not before 1 February 2022"],"target":"Between 16 December 2021 and 31 January 2022"}
{"Question":"How many New York City eviction filings will be reported for 2021?","Started_time":"2021-07-02","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Economic Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"New York City is closely watching the status of eviction moratoriums that were enacted by the federal government and the state of New York during the coronavirus pandemic but are set to expire soon (NY Times, AP, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data from the Eviction Lab as reported on 17 January 2022 (Eviction Lab). The relevant data can be retrieved by scrolling down to the row with \"New York\" under the \"Site\" column, downloading the corresponding CSV file and, in that file, sorting by weeks, summing the values under the \"filings_2020\" column for weeks 53 through 104. In 2020 (defined as weeks 1 through 52), there were a total of 74,345 eviction filings as of the launch of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 60,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 240,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 60,000","Between 60,000 and 80,000, inclusive","More than 80,000 but fewer than 120,000","Between 120,000 and 240,000, inclusive","More than 240,000"],"target":"Fewer than 60,000"}
{"Question":"Will the median price of a house in New Zealand exceed NZ$870,000 in December 2021, according to REINZ?","Started_time":"2021-07-02","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Skyrocketing housing prices in New Zealand are raising concerns about an asset bubble (Guardian, Newshub). The outcome will be determined using the national monthly median house price data for December 2021 as first reported by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), expected in mid-January 2022 (REINZ). Revisions to the data later would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?","Started_time":"2021-06-11","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"A reopening economy points to rising consumer spending and retail sales in 2021 (CNBC, RetailWire). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas\" data from the US Census Bureau for November and December 2021 relative to the same period in 2020, expected to be released in January 2022 (Census.gov). To retrieve the data, under the \"Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report\" section, select \"Time Series\/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series.\" Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select \"Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services,\" (2) set Start at 2020 and End at 2021, (3) select \"44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas,\" (4) select \"Sales - Monthly,\" (5) select \"U.S. Total,\" and leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked. For November and December 2020, the Bureau reported combined sales of 776,335 (millions of dollars).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The same or lower for 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher by 7.5% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["The same or lower for 2021","Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%","Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5%","Higher by 7.5% or more"],"target":"Higher by 7.5% or more"}
{"Question":"Before 13 January 2022, will H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, become law?","Started_time":"2021-11-26","Closed_time":"2022-01-13","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","In the News 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology","Environment","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"On 19 November 2022, the House of Representatives passed H.R.5376, also known as the Build Back Better Act, that includes many high priority measures for the Biden administration (Economist,\u00a0CBS News, CNBC, Congress.gov). An amended H.R.5376 becoming law would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many business applications will be made in the US in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-09-03","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, a record number of business applications were made in 2020 (CBS News, Bloomberg, Economic Innovation Group). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (Census Bureau, Census Bureau - Business Formation Statistics Methodology).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 4.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4.8 million and 5.2 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 5.6 million and 6.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 4.8 million","Between 4.8 million and 5.2 million, inclusive","More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million","Between 5.6 million and 6.0 million, inclusive","More than 6.0 million"],"target":"More than 5.2 million but fewer than 5.6 million"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2022 College Football Playoff national championship?","Started_time":"2021-12-10","Closed_time":"2022-01-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The two semifinal games are scheduled for 31 December 2021, and the national championship game is scheduled for 10 January 2022 in Indianapolis (NCAA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Alabama Crimson Tide":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"Cincinnati Bearcats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Georgia Bulldogs":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"Michigan Wolverines":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Alabama Crimson Tide","Cincinnati Bearcats","Georgia Bulldogs","Michigan Wolverines"],"target":"Georgia Bulldogs"}
{"Question":"Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-01-06","Closed_time":"2022-01-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 (ABC News, Council on Foreign Relations, AP). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 (Nicaragua Constitution [in Spanish], Nicaragua Constitution\u00a0[in English]).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and\/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts?","Started_time":"2021-05-14","Closed_time":"2022-01-08","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society"],"Description":"On 5 May 2021, Facebook\u2019s Oversight Board upheld a January decision to keep Donald Trump from posting content on his Facebook page and Instagram account, but criticized the current state of Facebook regulations as to content rules and gave the company six months to review those rules (Oversight Board, NPR, Fox Business).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will US print book sales in 2021 exceed those in 2020?","Started_time":"2021-05-07","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"In 2020, print book sales in the US were at their highest in a decade, rising 8.2% year over year (Publishing Perspectives, Publishers Weekly). The outcome will be determined using print book sales data as provided by The NPD Group (The NPD Group).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many units will Ford produce in North America in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-08-06","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"While US motor vehicle demand has recovered from the worst of the pandemic days, ongoing shortages in microchips are hampering auto production (Detroit Free Press, Ford Authority). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Ford, expected in 2022 (Ford, see \"U.S. Sales Reports\"). For 2020, Ford reported production at 2,034,807 among plants in Canada, Mexico, and the US (Ford - Q4 2020 Sales Release, see page 4, \"Total Production\" for \"Full Year\").","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1.75 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.75 million and 2.00 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"More than 2.00 million but fewer than 2.25 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Between 2.25 million and 2.50 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.50 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1.75 million","Between 1.75 million and 2.00 million, inclusive","More than 2.00 million but fewer than 2.25 million","Between 2.25 million and 2.50 million, inclusive","More than 2.50 million"],"target":"More than 2.00 million but fewer than 2.25 million"}
{"Question":"Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-28","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Economic Indicators","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the US labor market hard, though it has been recovering (Pew Research, AP, Fox Business). The outcome will be determined using monthly data as first reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Revisions to data would be immaterial. For December 2020, the BLS reported a US civilian labor force participation rate of 61.5% (BLS Employment Situation Release - December 2020).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the gross proceeds for special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPO transactions in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-19","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"SPACs have seen rapid growth as an alternative to conventional initial public offerings (IPOs) (Investopedia, Vox, Benzinga). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as reported by SPACInsider on 7 January 2022 (SPACInsider). For 2020, gross proceeds from SPAC IPO transactions totaled 83,334.7 million dollars, or $83.3347 billion.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $100 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"$180 billion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $100 billion","Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive","More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion","$180 billion or more"],"target":"More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion"}
{"Question":"What will be the FAO Food Price Index for December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-19","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Food Price Index, which historically has been predictive of popular unrest, has been climbing in recent months (FAO, Axios, Slate). This question will be resolved using data reported by the FAO in January 2022, typically released in the first week of the month (FAO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 100.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 110.0 but less than 120.0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 130.0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Less than 100.0","Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive","More than 110.0 but less than 120.0","Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive","More than 130.0"],"target":"More than 130.0"}
{"Question":"Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b\/d in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-06-11","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"US oil production fell a record 8% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic (EIA, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using the \"4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil\" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA). A weekly figure must have its \"End Date\" in 2021 to count. In June 2021, the EIA forecasted domestic production would reach an average of 11.38 million barrels per day (million b\/d) in the fourth quarter of 2021 (EIA STEO June 2021, see Table 4a).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many job openings in the trade, transportation, and utilities industries will the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report for November 2021?","Started_time":"2021-09-03","Closed_time":"2021-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Labor shortages continue throughout the US, with a record number of job openings reported for June 2021 (US Chamber of Commerce, Yahoo, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November and the outcome determined using data as first released by the BLS for November 2021, expected in January 2022 (BLS - JOLTS Release Schedule). For May 2021, the number of job openings for \"Trade, transportation, and utilities\" was 1,687 (in thousands) (JOLTS - June 2021, see Table A). For historical data, visit: https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/jlt\/. Under \"JOLTS Databases,\" select \"ONE SCREEN\" from \"Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).\" For \"1 Select one or more Industries,\" select \"Trade, transportation, and utilities.\" For \"2 Select one or more States or Regions,\" find and select \"Total US.\" For \"3 Select one or more Areas,\" select \"All Areas.\" For \"4 Select one or more Data Elements,\" find and select \"Job openings.\" For \"5 Select one or more Size Classes,\" find and select \"All size classes.\" For \"6 Select Rate and\/or Level,\" leave only \"Level - In Thousands\" checked. For \"7 Select Seasonal Adjustment,\" leave only \"Seasonally Adjusted\" checked, then click \"Get Data.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1.4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"2.2 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1.4 million","Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","More than 1.6 million but fewer than 1.8 million","Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive","More than 2.0 million but fewer than 2.2 million","2.2 million or more"],"target":"Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) exceed 100,000 in the UK?","Started_time":"2021-12-03","Closed_time":"2021-12-23","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The discovery of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) led to new travel restrictions imposed by the UK, though there are already reports of cases caused by Omicron in the country (Guardian, BBC, UK Health Security Agency - Technical briefing). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from UK Health Security Agency, published weekly here: https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. For example, as of 24 November 2021, there were 1,370,519 confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant (Variants: distribution of case data - 26 November 2021). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 23 March 2022, which is expected on 25 March 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 30 December 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 30 December 2021 and 26 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 27 January 2022 and 23 February 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 24 February 2022 and 23 March 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 24 March 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 30 December 2021","Between 30 December 2021 and 26 January 2022","Between 27 January 2022 and 23 February 2022","Between 24 February 2022 and 23 March 2022","Not before 24 March 2022"],"target":"Before 30 December 2021"}
{"Question":"Will SpaceX and\/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-02-05","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Entertainment"],"Description":"Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 (CNBC, SpaceNews). For the purposes of this question, a \"space tourist flight\" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude (BBC, SpaceNews).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only SpaceX":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Yes, only Virgin Galactic":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, only SpaceX","Yes, only Virgin Galactic","Yes, both","No"],"target":"Yes, only SpaceX"}
{"Question":"Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","Started_time":"2021-01-29","Closed_time":"2021-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 (WHO, see 'Deaths - cumulative total',\u00a0European Union). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2020-12-18","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case (European Parliament - Briefing, European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI), CEPS, South China Morning Post, Core.ac.uk). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https:\/\/trade.ec.europa.eu\/doclib\/docs\/2012\/june\/tradoc_149616.pdf, https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/legislative-train\/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation\/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022","Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?","Started_time":"2021-04-16","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"ASML is a Dutch company which leads in the development and manufacturing of UV lithography systems (ASML.com). It currently controls the supply of Extreme Ultraviolet lithography systems, used in the manufacturing of cutting edge computer processor chips (Medium, ASML.com, Laser Focus World). ASML is required to obtain a license from the Netherlands to export these systems to China, which has become an issue of geopolitical contention (Asia Times, B1ts & Ch1ps). To learn more about the export licensing process in the Netherlands, please see: https:\/\/www.government.nl\/topics\/export-controls-of-strategic-goods\/export-control-policy-for-strategic-goods, https:\/\/www.government.nl\/topics\/export-controls-of-strategic-goods\/question-and-answer\/how-can-i-obtain-an-export-licence-for-strategic-goods-or-dual-use-goods. A subsidiary of ASML obtaining a relevant export license would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will the European Commission (EC) recommend that the Council of the European Union authorize the EC to open negotiations with Taiwan on an investment agreement?","Started_time":"2021-07-09","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As diplomatic tensions between the EU and the People's Republic of China (PRC) have risen, there is a push within EU institutions to begin negotiations on a bilateral investment agreement with Taiwan (Politico.eu, European Parliament). While the EC conducts trade negotiations, it must first receive authorization from the Council (EC, European Parliament - Question to Commission, European Parliament - Commission Response). In 2013, the Commission made its proposal to the Council to open negotiations with the PRC on what would become the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, for which an agreement in principle was reached in December 2020 (EC, EC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and\/or publisher?","Started_time":"2020-12-11","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones (Rotten Tomatoes). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past (NY Times, Express, Entertainment Weekly).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","Started_time":"2020-12-18","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service (CNBC, TechCrunch, CGTN). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the EU establish a moratorium or ban on the use of facial recognition systems (FRS) in public spaces by public authorities, in premises meant for education and healthcare, and\/or by law enforcement in semi-public spaces before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-04-09","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In January 2021, the European Parliament invited the European Commission to \"consider a moratorium on the use of FRS in public spaces by public authorities,\" among other things (European Parliament, see #56, ZD Net). Whether a moratorium or ban is established through legislation and\/or regulation is immaterial, as are when it would take effect and how long it would last. A moratorium or ban with specific exemptions would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would limit or prohibit US federal funds from being used to purchase face recognition technology?","Started_time":"2021-04-09","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Advocates are pushing for limits on the use of face recognition technology for various reasons, from privacy to claims of racial bias (Reuters, ACLU, National Law Review). The date an executive order or federal legislation would take effect is immaterial. A prohibition with specific exemptions would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-07","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines continues (FDA - COVID-19 Vaccines, FDA - Emergency Use Authorization).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"2 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["2 or fewer","3","4","5","6 or more"],"target":"3"}
{"Question":"Between 30 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many times will the Council of the European Union impose new restrictive measures (sanctions) on China over human rights violations and abuses in Xinjiang?","Started_time":"2021-04-30","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 22 March 2021, the Council imposed restrictive measures against four Chinese officials and one Chinese entity for human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the first such sanctions since the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989 (BBC, Reuters, EUR-Lex, European Commission). The imposition of  restrictive measures against additional Chinese entities and Chinese individuals  under the existing restrictive measures regulation would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3 or more"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will the US Intelligence Community publicly state that a laboratory accident is a more probable scenario for the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic than it having emerged naturally through contact with infected animals?","Started_time":"2021-06-11","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Health","Foreign Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"Debate on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic has regained salience (BBC, Science Magazine, Nature, BBC). On 27 May 2021, the ODNI issued a press release stating that the U.S. Intelligence Community had \u201ccoalesced around two likely scenarios: either it emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals or it was a laboratory accident. While two elements of the IC lean toward the former scenario and one leans more toward the latter -- each with low or moderate confidence -- the majority of elements within the IC do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other\u201d (Office of the Director of National Intelligence). President Biden has asked for further reporting on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic (Whitehouse.gov, NY Times, BBC). For further information on US intelligence community terminology on probabilities and confidence, see Intelligence Community Directive 203 (Federation of American Scientists).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and\/or People's Armed Police (PAP) engage in a confrontation with Hong Kongers?","Started_time":"2021-04-23","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests that are widening rifts between Hong Kong and China (Reuters, UPI, BBC, Council on Foreign Relations). The confrontation must take place in Hong Kong to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and\/or expelled from their posts?","Started_time":"2021-02-26","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"China\u2019s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party (BBC, Gov.cn, Brookings). Various Politburo members have been arrested and\/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country (BBC, Tribune India).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2 or more"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","Started_time":"2020-08-28","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2021","The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","China and the World in 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Sports","US Policy"],"Description":"Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history (Montreal Gazette, Dept. of State, History.com). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population (Economist,\u00a0Daily Sabah, Politico, Olympic.org).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 16 October 2020 and 31 December 2021, how many successful flight tests of the Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) will the United States conduct?","Started_time":"2020-10-16","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The U.S., China, Russia, and other countries are working to develop hypersonic weapons (Federation of American Scientists, ScienceMag.org, NY Times). The U.S. Army and Navy collaborated on and successfully tested the C-HGB in March 2020 and are looking to conduct further flight tests in 2021 (Defense News). A flight test will be considered \u201csuccessful\u201d if the U.S. military announces that the C-HGB reaches its designated impact point (Defense News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-02-16","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology","US Policy"],"Description":"While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed (CNBC, Canadian Press, Coindesk, Investopedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","Started_time":"2021-01-21","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (AP, Bloomberg, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-22","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Health","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country (UN, Radio Canada International, In Depth News). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","Started_time":"2020-10-16","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 (Boom Supersonic, BoomSupersonic.com, Flight Global). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for the 30 year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","Started_time":"2020-12-31","Closed_time":"2021-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear (CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than 2.000 but less than 2.500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.500","Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive","More than 2.000 but less than 2.500","Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive","More than 3.000"],"target":"Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","Started_time":"2020-12-22","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 (CNBC, Diem, Securities.io, Investopedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-05","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them (NPR, JPost). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., NY Times, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2020-12-16","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach (Yahoo News, Reuters, Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a \"Yes\" resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association be ratified before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-05-07","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Baseball club owners and the players union have begun negotiations for a new CBA (ESPN, CBS Sports). The current CBA is due to expire on 1 December 2021 (Bleacher Nation, MLBPA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and\/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","Started_time":"2021-03-05","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration (Independent, Reuters, VOA News, BBC). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only detonate a nuclear device":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only launch an ICBM":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, only detonate a nuclear device","Yes, only launch an ICBM","Yes, both","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-02-10","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism (USA Today, DHS.gov).  For the purposes of this question, an \"act of domestic terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. \u00a7 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will legal restrictions on the number of people who can meet indoors be imposed in England before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-08-20","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Sky News Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The UK government lifted indoor occupancy limits and other COVID-19 restrictions on 19 July 2021, dubbed by many as \"Freedom Day\" (Sky News, Gov.uk). However, seasonalities and the Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 and others continue to raise concerns that another round of restrictions may come (Bustle, GoodtoKnow). Restrictions indoors at home or in public places would not need to cover the whole of England to count, but restrictions specific to hospitals and medical care facilities would not count. The question would close upon restrictions taking effect.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","Started_time":"2020-12-31","Closed_time":"2021-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company (CNBC, NPR). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg (Bloomberg - APPL, see \"MARKET CAP\"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., Bloomberg - ARAMCO, Bloomberg - SAR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, the most valuable in the world":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"No, but the most valuable in the United States":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, the most valuable in the world","No, but the most valuable in the United States","No"],"target":"Yes, the most valuable in the world"}
{"Question":"Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-06-18","Closed_time":"2021-12-30","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begin delivering natural gas to Germany?","Started_time":"2021-08-06","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","US Politics","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The Nord Stream 2 pipeline could begin delivering natural gas from Russia to Germany later this year despite opposition from multiple groups (BBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Nord-stream2.com). Testing alone would not count. Delivery through either string of pipe would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-07-23","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute (Middle East Eye, Egypt Independent, Africa Report). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","Started_time":"2020-11-13","Closed_time":"2021-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention (Guardian, BBC). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its \"Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts\" chart in the \u201cTotals\u201d section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 (Global Fire Emissions Database).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","Started_time":"2020-10-30","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics"],"Description":"As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) (Medium, CNBC, Vox, Investopedia). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will Chinese ride-hailing company DiDi's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-07-23","Closed_time":"2021-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Soon after its IPO in the US, DiDi Global Inc. faced a barrage of regulatory scrutiny from Chinese authorities (CNBC, Motley Fool). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by CNBC (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $25 billion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Between $25 billion and $40 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"More than $40 billion but less than $55 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $55 billion and $70 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $70 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"DiDi will cease to be listed on a US stock exchange before 1 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $25 billion","Between $25 billion and $40 billion, inclusive","More than $40 billion but less than $55 billion","Between $55 billion and $70 billion, inclusive","More than $70 billion","DiDi will cease to be listed on a US stock exchange before 1 January 2022"],"target":"Less than $25 billion"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 31 December 2021, according to Bloomberg?","Started_time":"2021-07-30","Closed_time":"2021-12-31","Challenges_list":["Man Group\u2019s Good Question Challenge 2022","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $30.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $30.00 and $45.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $45.00 but less than $60.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $60.00 and $75.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"More than $75.00 but less than $90.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"More than $90.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $30.00","Between $30.00 and $45.00, inclusive","More than $45.00 but less than $60.00","Between $60.00 and $75.00, inclusive","More than $75.00 but less than $90.00","More than $90.00"],"target":"More than $75.00 but less than $90.00"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on 31 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-10-07","Closed_time":"2021-12-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"On 30 September 2021, sports broadcaster Al Michaels asked members of the Halftime Show panel on CNBC for the over\/under on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for 34,000 as of 31 December 2021 (CNBC). Traders Josh Brown and Pete Najarian provided responses. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 33,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 33,000.00 and 34,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 34,000.00 but lower than 35,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 35,000.00 and 36,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"37,000.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Lower than 33,000.00","Between 33,000.00 and 34,000.00, inclusive","Higher than 34,000.00 but lower than 35,000.00","Between 35,000.00 and 36,000.00, inclusive","Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00","37,000.00 or more"],"target":"Higher than 36,000.00 but lower than 37,000.00"}
{"Question":"Will Rishi Sunak cease to be the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-08-20","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Sky News Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"There have been reports of tensions between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Sunak (Sky News, Daily Mail, Gov.uk - Rishi Sunak, Evening Standard).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will Kais Saied cease to be the president of Tunisia?","Started_time":"2021-08-13","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"The future of Tunisia's democracy is uncertain after President Kais Saied invoked emergency powers, suspended parliament, and dismissed the prime minister (Reuters, Middle East Eye, Guardian, Al Jazeera).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Haiti hold a presidential election before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-07-16","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Haiti's presidential election is currently planned for 26 September 2021, along with legislative elections and a constitutional referendum (Reuters). The assassination of President Jovenel Mo\u00efse on 7 July 2021 has called the timeline into question, though some officials have publicly committed to keeping the date (CNN, NY Times). If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held about two months later in November (UN). If there is a second round, the question would close as of the date the second round of voting is held.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Abiy Ahmed cease to be the prime minister of Ethiopia by way of extraconstitutional events before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-07-30","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After success for his party in June 2021 elections, Prime Minister Ahmed is facing a variety of challenges in different regions of the country, including Tigray (NPR, BBC). For the purposes of this question, \"extraconstitutional\" means events not conforming to the legal and political processes as laid out in the constitution of Ethiopia (e.g., a coup) (Ethiopian Constitution). The death of Ahmed by any means would close the question \"Yes.\" For the purposes of this question, the House of Federation's approval of allowing Ahmed to stay in office after his mandate was to expire due to the COVID-19 pandemic is considered to have been constitutional (Ethiopian News Agency, Al Jazeera). In the event the status of the prime minister is not immediately clear, e.g., see President Erdogan during the 2016 attempted coup in Turkey (BBC), the question would not be closed unless and until his being deposed is clear from credible open source reporting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","Started_time":"2021-02-12","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (Atlantic Council, BBC,\u00a0Washington Post, Federation of American Scientists).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory carbon pricing mechanism become law before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-04-30","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Environment","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring policy options to impose mandatory carbon pricing in the United States (Harvard Environmental & Energy Law Program, The Hill, European Parliament). For the purposes of this question, a carbon pricing mechanism would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and\/or a cap-and-trade system (World Bank). Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the EU Emissions Trading System (European Commission), the California Cap-and-Trade Program (California Air Resources Board), and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-02-10","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 (Britannica). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 (Newsweek, Al Jazeera).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-29","Closed_time":"2022-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 (NPR, Supreme Court). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3 or more"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-15","Closed_time":"2021-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $75 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $150 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $75 billion","Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","More than $150 billion"],"target":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will the US lift the suspension of entry for noncitizens who have been present in South Africa during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US?","Started_time":"2021-12-03","Closed_time":"2021-12-31","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health","Foreign Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"After South Africa announced the discovery of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant named Omicron by WHO, President Biden imposed travel restrictions on various southern Africa countries, including South Africa (Whitehouse.gov - Proclamation, BBC, WHO). Listed exceptions, changes to listed exceptions, and\/or a change to the duration of the 14-day period would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 April 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2022","Between 1 January 2022 and 31 March 2022","Not before 1 April 2022"],"target":"Before 1 January 2022"}
{"Question":"When will total cases of COVID-19 in Canada reach 2 million or more, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)?","Started_time":"2021-10-20","Closed_time":"2021-12-27","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"While COVID-19 cases in Canada have begun to fall again, concerns remain for a resurgence with the onset of winter (CBC). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by PHAC (PHAC). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the \".CSV\" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (\"numtoday\") associated with daily entries for \"Canada\" under \"prname.\" The question will close on available data no later than 26 April 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 24 December 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 24 December and 22 January 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 23 January 2022 and 21 February 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 22 February and 23 March 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 24 March 2022 and 22 April 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 23 April 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 24 December 2021","Between 24 December and 22 January 2022","Between 23 January 2022 and 21 February 2022","Between 22 February and 23 March 2022","Between 24 March 2022 and 22 April 2022","Not before 23 April 2022"],"target":"Between 24 December and 22 January 2022"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the S&P\/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index for October 2021?","Started_time":"2021-07-09","Closed_time":"2021-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Home prices have been surging in the US in 2021 (CNN, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using S&P\/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly index data for October 2021 are first available, typically in December.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 250.00000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 250.00000 and 260.00000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 260.00000 but lower than 270.00000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"Higher than 280.00000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Lower than 250.00000","Between 250.00000 and 260.00000, inclusive","Higher than 260.00000 but lower than 270.00000","Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive","Higher than 280.00000"],"target":"Between 270.00000 and 280.00000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?","Started_time":"2021-09-17","Closed_time":"2021-12-26","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (CDC). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last breached 200,000 on 18 January 2021. Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 6 May 2022.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 November 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 May 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 November 2021","Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022","Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022","Not before 1 May 2022"],"target":"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of the shipping-costs benchmark Baltic Exchange Dry Index as of 24 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-10-08","Closed_time":"2021-12-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","Inflation Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"As economies emerge from the worst of the pandemic, costs of global shipping have skyrocketed in 2021 (NASDAQ, Hellenic Shipping News, Investopedia, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using Baltic Exchange Dry Index data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 2,500.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 2,500.00 and 4,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 4,000.00 but lower than 5,500.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5,500.00 and 7,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 7,000.00 but lower than 8,500.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 8,500.00 and 10,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 10,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 2,500.00","Between 2,500.00 and 4,000.00, inclusive","Higher than 4,000.00 but lower than 5,500.00","Between 5,500.00 and 7,000.00, inclusive","Higher than 7,000.00 but lower than 8,500.00","Between 8,500.00 and 10,000.00, inclusive","Higher than 10,000.00"],"target":"Lower than 2,500.00"}
{"Question":"Will the James Webb telescope be launched successfully before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-09-24","Closed_time":"2021-12-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"The James Webb Space Telescope, scheduled for launch 18 December 2021, will be the most powerful space telescope ever launched (Vox, NASA). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful Ariane 5 main stage separation (Arianespace, WebTelescope.org).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the UK next fall below 15,000?","Started_time":"2021-07-21","Closed_time":"2021-12-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Despite having one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, the UK began facing a new surge in COVID-19 cases in late June 2021 (NPR, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using 7-day average data as reported by the UK government under \"Cases by date reported\" (Coronavirus.data.co.uk). If the question is still open as of 17 December 2021, data available for resolution will be evaluated on 24 December 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 11 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 18 December 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 11 September 2021","Between 11 September 2021 and 29 October 2021","Between 30 October 2021 and 17 December 2021","Not before 18 December 2021"],"target":"Not before 18 December 2021"}
{"Question":"When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Delta next represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?","Started_time":"2021-08-06","Closed_time":"2021-12-19","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","The Economist: The World Ahead 2022","Coronavirus Outbreak","In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"The Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 (B.1.617.2) became the dominant variant in the United States over the summer of 2021, and there are fears that another, potentially more dangerous, variant could follow (New Atlas, Newsweek). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in two-week intervals, here: https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#variant-proportions. For the period ending 17 July 2021, the Delta variant and three sublineages (e.g., AY.1) represented a combined 83.5% percent share of COVID lineage in the US as of the launch of this question. Data from the \u201cNowcast\u201d option would count, and Delta sublineages would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"A one-week period ending between 22 January 2022 and 12 March 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Not before 13 March 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["A two-week period ending 25 September 2021 or earlier","A two-week period ending between 9 October 2021 and 20 November 2021","A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022","A one-week period ending between 22 January 2022 and 12 March 2022","Not before 13 March 2022"],"target":"A one-week period ending between 27 November 2021 and 15 January 2022"}
{"Question":"How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will the Port of Los Angeles report for November 2021?","Started_time":"2021-09-03","Closed_time":"2021-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"In recent months, the global supply chain has been affected by, among other things, disrupted factory production, increased transportation costs, foreign port closures, and congested domestic ports (CNN, Los Angeles Times, Time). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined using November 2021 data as reported by the Port of Los Angeles for TEUs, which is a standardized measurement of volume for cargo containers (Port of Los Angeles). For January 2021, the Port of Los Angeles reported 835,516.20 TEUs.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 800,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"1,000,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 800,000","Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive","More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,000,000","1,000,000 or more"],"target":"Between 800,000 and 900,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Chile?","Started_time":"2021-07-21","Closed_time":"2021-12-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 18 July 2021, Gabriel Boric and Sebastian Sichel won their respective primaries, becoming the leading candidates in Chile's 2021 presidential election (Rio Times, Reuters, Bloomberg). Chile's next presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting to take place on 21 November 2021, with a runoff scheduled for 19 December 2021 if needed (AS\/COA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Gabriel Boric":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"Sebasti\u00e1n Sichel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Gabriel Boric","Sebasti\u00e1n Sichel","Another candidate","There will not be a presidential election in Chile before 1 January 2022"],"target":"Gabriel Boric"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Championship?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2021-12-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"Mercedes and Red Bull Racing-Honda have, as of the launch of this question, 478.5 and 477.5 points, respectively, in the 2021 Formula One World Constructors' Champions standings, with only a four races remaining (Formula1.com, Sky Sports). The question will be suspended on 11 December 2021, the day before the final race in the season, and the outcome determined once official awards are given at the FIA Prize Giving Ceremony.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Mercedes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Red Bull Racing-Honda":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Another result":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Mercedes","Red Bull Racing-Honda","Another result"],"target":"Mercedes"}
{"Question":"Which driver will win the 2021 Formula One World Drivers' Championship?","Started_time":"2021-07-16","Closed_time":"2021-12-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"Formula 1 auto racing is one of the most popular sports in the world (F1 Chronicle). The final grand prix of the year is scheduled for 12 December 2021 in Abu Dhabi (Formula 1).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lewis Hamilton":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Sergio Perez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Max Verstappen":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Another driver":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lewis Hamilton","Sergio Perez","Max Verstappen","Another driver"],"target":"Max Verstappen"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 15 December 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 3 November 2021?","Started_time":"2021-07-30","Closed_time":"2021-12-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 14-15 December 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?","Started_time":"2021-06-17","Closed_time":"2021-12-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Rising global food prices are a growing concern (Al Jazeera). The outcome will be determined using monthly IMF data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly IMF data for November 2021 are available, typically in December.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than $220.00\/MT":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $220.00\/MT and $260.00\/MT, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than $260.00\/MT but lower than $300.00\/MT":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Between $300.00\/MT and $340.00\/MT, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"Higher than $340.00\/MT":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than $220.00\/MT","Between $220.00\/MT and $260.00\/MT, inclusive","Higher than $260.00\/MT but lower than $300.00\/MT","Between $300.00\/MT and $340.00\/MT, inclusive","Higher than $340.00\/MT"],"target":"Between $300.00\/MT and $340.00\/MT, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","Started_time":"2021-02-12","Closed_time":"2021-12-15","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) (Federal Register, Council on Foreign Relations, Asian Society Policy Institute).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual change in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2021?","Started_time":"2021-07-21","Closed_time":"2021-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Like much of the world, inflation concerns are running high in the UK (CNBC, BBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the \"CPI ANNUAL RATE\" as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) when first released, typically in December 2021 (ONS).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.7%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.2% but less than 2.9%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.4% but less than 4.1%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"4.1% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.7%","Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive","More than 2.2% but less than 2.9%","Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive","More than 3.4% but less than 4.1%","4.1% or more"],"target":"4.1% or more"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2023, will a Latin American or Caribbean nation cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","Started_time":"2021-10-29","Closed_time":"2021-12-09","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC) (Newsweek). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including nine in Latin America and Caribbean (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?","Started_time":"2021-05-14","Closed_time":"2021-12-14","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Health","US Politics","Non-US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The Biden administration has announced that it would support waiving intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines (USTR.gov, NPR, Reuters). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO,  SDG Knowledge Hub).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How far will the UAE national football team advance in the FIFA Arab Cup 2021?","Started_time":"2021-09-10","Closed_time":"2021-12-10","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The FIFA Arab Cup is scheduled for 30 November 2021 to 18 December 2021 (Global Sports Archive, IloveQatar.net, FIFA). If the Arab Cup is canceled or postponed beyond 2021, the question would be voided.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Group Stage":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Quarterfinals":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Finals (1st or 2nd Place)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Group Stage","Quarterfinals","Semi-finals (3rd or 4th Place)","Finals (1st or 2nd Place)"],"target":"Quarterfinals"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","Started_time":"2020-07-31","Closed_time":"2021-12-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (Reuters). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen (The Atlantic, Brookings Institute).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the market capitalization for the global cryptocurrency market on 9 December 2021, according to CoinMarketCap?","Started_time":"2021-07-09","Closed_time":"2021-12-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the last value dated 9 December 2021 (PT) as reported by CoinMarketCap under \"Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap\" with \"Zoom\" set to \"7d\" the morning of 10 December 2021 (CoinMarketCap).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1.0 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $1.5 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"More than $2.5 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"}},"choices":["Less than $1.0 trillion","Between $1.0 trillion and $1.5 trillion, inclusive","More than $1.5 trillion but less than $2.0 trillion","Between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion, inclusive","More than $2.5 trillion"],"target":"Between $2.0 trillion and $2.5 trillion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Canada announce a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, China, before 1 February 2022?","Started_time":"2021-12-07","Closed_time":"2021-12-08","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Society","Sports","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The US government announced that it would hold a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympics to protest various policies of the People's Republic of China, with other countries reportedly considering the same (ABC News, Forbes, CTV News). A diplomatic boycott means no official representatives from Canada would attend any events of the Beijing 2022 Games, scheduled to begin on 4 February 2022, but would not necessarily affect athlete participation (Olympics.com, Voice of America). Canada announcing a diplomatic boycott as part of a group (e.g., the G7) would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Following the 2021 German Bundestag elections, which parties will be part of the new government?","Started_time":"2021-04-16","Closed_time":"2021-09-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"With Chancellor Angela Merkel stepping down, her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Germany in general face an uncertain political future (Euronews, Deutsche Welle). The election is scheduled to take place on 26 September 2021 (Bundeswahlleiter.de, Politico.eu). Members of other political parties joining a government would be immaterial. If, by 31 December 2021, no election is held or new elections are called with only a caretaker government put in place, the question will close as \"No government will be formed before 31 December 2021.\" \"The Green Party\" means the Alliance '90\/The Greens (B\u00fcndnis 90\/Die Gr\u00fcnen).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The CDU but not the Green Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"The Green Party but not the CDU":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Both the CDU and the Green Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Neither the CDU nor the Green Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No government will be formed before 31 December 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"}},"choices":["The CDU but not the Green Party","The Green Party but not the CDU","Both the CDU and the Green Party","Neither the CDU nor the Green Party","No government will be formed before 31 December 2021"],"target":"The Green Party but not the CDU"}
{"Question":"Before 1 September 2022, will the government of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) officially announce a change to its weekend?","Started_time":"2021-10-01","Closed_time":"2021-12-07","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Business","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In 2006, the UAE changed its weekend from Thursday-Friday to Friday-Saturday to have more business hours consistent with Europe and elsewhere around the world (BBC, Esquire Middle East). There has been speculation that there could be additional changes coming, though the government has denied any plans (Arab News, Gulf Today). Any calendar change, including an official policy for a \"half-day\" on Friday, for example, would count. The date a change would take effect would be immaterial, but a date the change would take effect must be included in the announcement.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-05","Closed_time":"2021-12-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (US News, BBC, Time). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2021 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?","Started_time":"2021-06-04","Closed_time":"2021-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that the 2021 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2021 to 30 November 2021, will be \"above-normal\" (NOAA). The outcome will be determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"2 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["2 or fewer","3","4","5","6 or more"],"target":"4"}
{"Question":"Which major cryptocurrency will perform best between 27 May 2021 and 29 November 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-28","Closed_time":"2021-11-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology","The outcome will be determined by data from CoinDesk, using the \"1y\" chart, by dividing the price dated 29 November 2021 (PT) by the price dated 27 May 2021 (PT), which were:","Bitcoin (CoinDesk): $38,717.77","Cardano (Ada) (CoinDesk): $1.66","Ethereum (CoinDesk): $2,774.54","XRP (Ripple) (CoinDesk): $0.979175"],"Description":"In the event of an apparent tie, \"Closing Price (USD)\" data will be exported from the \"1y\" chart for resolution. If there is still a tie, the question will close on the cryptocurrency with the larger market cap.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Bitcoin":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Cardano (Ada)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ethereum":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"XRP (Ripple)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Bitcoin","Cardano (Ada)","Ethereum","XRP (Ripple)"],"target":"Ethereum"}
{"Question":"Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-06-25","Closed_time":"2021-11-20","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the NZ Ministry of Health for \"second doses administered\" (NZ Ministry of Health). Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 30 December 2021 if the question is still open at that time. If the NZ Ministry of Health changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 12 November 2021?","Started_time":"2021-07-16","Closed_time":"2021-11-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"Brazil is struggling to bring COVID-19 under control amidst continued domestic political acrimony over the response (The Week, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 12 November 2021 will be assessed on 18 November 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 22 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 28 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 22 million","Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive","More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million","Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive","More than 28 million"],"target":"Fewer than 22 million"}
{"Question":"What will be the annualized rate of housing starts for October 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-21","Closed_time":"2021-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, faces an uncertain future due to lumber prices, labor market uncertainties, and fluctuating mortgage rates (CNBC, Fool, Housing Wire). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for October 2021, typically in November (FRED). For October 2020, housing starts totaled 1.514 million.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.4 million","Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","More than 1.6 million but less than 1.8 million","Between 1.8 million and 2.0 million, inclusive","More than 2.0 million"],"target":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 4 January 2022, will H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, become law?","Started_time":"2021-10-22","Closed_time":"2021-11-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2022","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"H.R.3684, also known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, is one of the core components of the Biden administration's legislative agenda (H.R.3684, White House, CNN). An amended H.R.3684 becoming law would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which driver will win the Brazilian (S\u00e3o Paulo) Grand Prix?","Started_time":"2021-11-12","Closed_time":"2021-11-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 2021 S\u00e3o Paulo Grand Prix is scheduled for 14 November 2021 as one of the closing rounds of the 2021 Formula One World Championship (Sky Sports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Max Verstappen":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Lewis Hamilton":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"},"Another result":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Max Verstappen","Lewis Hamilton","Another result"],"target":"Lewis Hamilton"}
{"Question":"Will the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) announce the finalization of the \"Paris Rulebook,\" the rules for implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement, before 16 November 2021?","Started_time":"2021-08-27","Closed_time":"2021-11-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","The Sky News Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Environment","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"A majority of the \"Paris Rulebook\" was adopted at COP24 in 2018, but unresolved issues remain (Sky News, World Resources Institute, Gov.uk, Environmental Defense Fund). COP26 is scheduled for 31 October 2021 to 12 November 2021 (UKCOP26.org).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be total OPEC crude oil production for October 2021?","Started_time":"2021-07-16","Closed_time":"2021-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"There is ongoing disagreement within OPEC regarding crude oil production (Business Times, CNBC, World Oil). The outcome will be determined using monthly data for \"Total OPEC\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb\/d\" table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report). The July 2021 report shows \"Total OPEC\" produced 26,034 thousand barrels per day (tb\/d) in June 2021 (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report, see Table 5 - 7 on page 49 in the document). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and closed when the October 2021 data are released, scheduled for November 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 25,500 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 25,500 tb\/d and 27,000 tb\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"More than 27,000 tb\/d but fewer than 28,500 tb\/d":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"28,500 tb\/d or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 25,500 tb\/d","Between 25,500 tb\/d and 27,000 tb\/d, inclusive","More than 27,000 tb\/d but fewer than 28,500 tb\/d","28,500 tb\/d or more"],"target":"More than 27,000 tb\/d but fewer than 28,500 tb\/d"}
{"Question":"What will be Rivian's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","Started_time":"2021-09-24","Closed_time":"2021-11-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Electric vehicle maker Rivian is reportedly aiming to go public in late October or November of 2021 (CNBC, Muscle Cars and Trucks). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Rivian goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $50 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $50 billion and $70 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"More than $70 billion but less than $90 billion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"Between $90 billion and $110 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $110 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Rivian will not trade publicly before 1 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $50 billion","Between $50 billion and $70 billion, inclusive","More than $70 billion but less than $90 billion","Between $90 billion and $110 billion, inclusive","More than $110 billion","Rivian will not trade publicly before 1 January 2022"],"target":"More than $70 billion but less than $90 billion"}
{"Question":"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-15","Closed_time":"2021-11-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong (Costa Rica News, The Moscow Times, Kyiv Post, Washington Post). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government (government.ru).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-15","Closed_time":"2021-11-07","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 3 November 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 22 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-06-18","Closed_time":"2021-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its November meeting is scheduled for 2-3 November 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Before 16 December 2021, will the Federal Reserve announce it will reduce its monthly quantitative easing bond buying?","Started_time":"2021-04-30","Closed_time":"2021-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The Federal Reserve's monthly purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, begun early in the pandemic, is expected to taper down eventually (Market Watch, Economic Times). The outcome will be determined using statements and notes released by the FOMC (Federal Reserve). As of 28 April 2021, the Federal Reserve was increasing its \"holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month\" (Federal Reserve - April 2021 Statement). The date a reduction would take effect is immaterial, and conditional announcements (e.g., if the labor market improves, if inflation rises) would not count. Any repo or reverse repo operations are immaterial (NY Fed).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Virginia in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-10-07","Closed_time":"2021-11-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The election is scheduled for 2 November 2021 (The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the Major League Baseball World Series in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-08-13","Closed_time":"2021-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2021 World Series is scheduled for 26 October 2021 to 3 November 2021 (Sportsnaut).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Chicago White Sox":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Houston Astros":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Los Angeles Dodgers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Milwaukee Brewers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Oakland Athletics":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"San Diego Padres":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"San Francisco Giants":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tampa Bay Rays":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"No team will win the 2021 World Series":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Chicago White Sox","Houston Astros","Los Angeles Dodgers","Milwaukee Brewers","Oakland Athletics","San Diego Padres","San Francisco Giants","Tampa Bay Rays","Another team","No team will win the 2021 World Series"],"target":"Another team"}
{"Question":"As of 1 November 2021, will Waka Kotahi list 321 or more qualifying electrical vehicle (EV) charging stations as available in New Zealand?","Started_time":"2021-07-02","Closed_time":"2021-11-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Environment"],"Description":"The EV charging station network in New Zealand is expanding (Stuff). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Waka Kotahi, New Zealand's transport agency (Waka Kotahi). The site includes a live map and table of qualifying charging stations. Data on the \"Table view\" will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00 pm ET on 1 November 2021. For more on \"qualifying\" stations, see \"Minimum requirements for the nationwide network\" (Waka Kotahi).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","Started_time":"2021-02-05","Closed_time":"2021-11-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny (AP, Moscow Times). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 November 2021, will a new government mask mandate for individuals fully vaccinated for COVID-19 that includes indoor restaurants and\/or retail establishments be imposed on New York City?","Started_time":"2021-08-06","Closed_time":"2021-11-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"With COVID-19 cases increasing, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced new mandates for proof of COVID-19 vaccination in order to use many indoor locations but stopped short of imposing a new mask mandate (NYC.gov, NY Post, CNN, NYC.gov - COVID-19 Page). The question would close upon a mandate taking effect. A mandate with specific exceptions would count, and a mandate would not have to cover the whole of New York City to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will New Zealand's AgResearch report having a net annual financial surplus (pretax) in its 2020\/21 fiscal year?","Started_time":"2021-05-21","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Environment","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"AgResearch is \"responsible for delivering innovative science and research outcomes specifically for the agricultural sector,\" and its fiscal year is 1 July to 30 June (AgResearch). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data as provided in AgResearch's 2021 Annual Report, expected in October 2021 (AgResearch - Annual Reports). For FY 2019\/20, AgResearch reported a net annual financial surplus of NZ$3,780 before tax, in thousands of NZ dollars (AgResearch - 2020 Annual Report, see \"Surplus\/(deficit) before tax\" on page 103).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the 7-day average number of new cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana for the week ending 20 October 2021?","Started_time":"2021-09-10","Closed_time":"2021-10-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"Louisiana continues to struggle with COVID-19 in the wake of Hurricane Ida (USA Today). The outcome will be determined using data as published by the New York Times (NY Times). The 7-day average of new cases of COVID-19 in Louisiana for the week ending 1 September 2021 was 2,991. The data for the week ending 20 October 2021 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 26 October 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1,500":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"7,500 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1,500","Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive","More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500","Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive","More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500","7,500 or more"],"target":"Fewer than 1,500"}
{"Question":"Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-09-08","Closed_time":"2021-10-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as provided by 91-DIVOC (91-DIVOC, parameters are set with the link). Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 22 October 2021.*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read each answer bin carefully before making a forecast.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Yes, but without having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"No, but without having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts","Yes, but without having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts","No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts","No, but without having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts"],"target":"No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts"}
{"Question":"Before 18 December 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"Worked from home and didn\u2019t travel to work\" fell to 15% or lower?","Started_time":"2021-08-27","Closed_time":"2021-10-21","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Health","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' \"Opinions and Lifestyle Survey (COVID-19 module)\" dataset (ONS, click the green button under \"Current edition of this dataset\" to download the file). In their release dated 27 August 2021, the ONS reported that 21% of those working \"Worked from home and didn\u2019t travel to work\" (see \"%\" under \"Working population\" in Table 5). Links to prior datasets may be found in the sheet \"Previous Publications.\" In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 17 December 2021. As these data are occasionally reported elsewhere on the Thursday prior to release, the question would close as of the day before a dataset release reporting a figure of 15% or lower.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-17","Closed_time":"2021-10-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The CPI is a measure of inflation calculated by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the 12-month percentage change as first released by the BLS for \"All items\" in September 2021 (BLS). For September 2020, the change was 1.4%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 1.7%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher than 3.1%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Lower than 1.7%","Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive","Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%","Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive","Higher than 3.1%"],"target":"Higher than 3.1%"}
{"Question":"What will be the US domestic box office gross in the opening weekend for the next James Bond film No Time to Die?","Started_time":"2021-06-04","Closed_time":"2021-10-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment","No Time to Die, starring Daniel Craig for the fifth time as James Bond, is the 25th installment in the Bond movie franchise (IMDb). The outcome will be determined with \"Domestic Weekend\" data for the weekend of 8-10 October 2021 as reported by Box Office Mojo (Box Office Mojo). If the release date is postponed beyond 2021, the question will be voided. The opening weekends for the last two Bond films totaled:","Skyfall (2012): $88,364,714"],"Description":"Spectre (2015): $70,403,148","Possible_Answers_dict":{"No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"No Time to Die will gross more than Spectre but less than Skyfall ($88,364,714)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"No Time to Die will gross as much or more than Skyfall":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54%"}},"choices":["No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148)","No Time to Die will gross more than Spectre but less than Skyfall ($88,364,714)","No Time to Die will gross as much or more than Skyfall"],"target":"No Time to Die will gross as much or less than Spectre ($70,403,148)"}
{"Question":"Will a member of the forces from an African country other than Mozambique be killed in a lethal confrontation in Cabo Delgado before 1 April 2022?","Started_time":"2021-06-30","Closed_time":"2021-09-25","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2022"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Mozambique's ongoing insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado intensified in 2020 (BBC, Al Jazeera, International Crisis Group). On 23 June 2021, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) \"approved the Mandate for the SADC Standby Force Mission to the Republic of Mozambique, to be deployed in support of Mozambique to combat of terrorism and acts of violent extremism in Cabo Delgado,\" though details on when and a force of what size remain to be determined (SADC, Al Jazeera, Translators Without Borders). For the purposes of this question, \"forces\" means national military forces or law enforcement.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 2 October 2021, will the Taliban submit credentials to the Secretary-General of the UN to represent Afghanistan for the 76th UN General Assembly session?","Started_time":"2021-08-27","Closed_time":"2021-10-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"With the collapse of the Afghan government in August 2021, no one is sure who might represent the country at the UN General Assembly (AP, UN). Representatives of member states must submit credentials to the Secretary-General in order to participate (UNGA Rules of Procedure, Just Security, Christian Science Monitor). The 76th Session of the UN General Assembly is scheduled to open on 14 September 2021 (Politico). The question would close upon the UN General Assembly's recognition of any representative(s) as representing Afghanistan. Provisional recognition per Rule 29 of the General Assembly's rules of procedure alone would not count. Attendance alone would not count (e.g., AP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and their credentials will be recognized":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, but their credentials will not be recognized":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, and their credentials will be recognized","Yes, but their credentials will not be recognized","No"],"target":"Yes, but their credentials will not be recognized"}
{"Question":"Before 2 October 2021, will the UN General Assembly recognize delegates from the National Unity Government (NUG) as representing Myanmar for the 76th General Assembly session?","Started_time":"2021-07-30","Closed_time":"2021-09-14","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The NUG is a rival government established after the Myanmar Defense Forces staged a coup on 1 February 2021 (France 24, NUG). The 76th Session of the UN General Assembly is scheduled to open on 14 September 2021, but who will be recognized as the delegate(s) for Myanmar remains to be seen (UN, Asia Times, CNN, UN). The question would close upon the UN General Assembly's recognition of any delegate(s) as representing Myanmar. Attendance alone would not count (e.g., AP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","Started_time":"2021-01-08","Closed_time":"2021-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize (Economist,\u00a0NY Times, The Hill). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-05","Closed_time":"2021-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"A Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January (CNBC, CNET). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits (Business Insider, CNET). A Wells notice \"is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker\" (Cornell).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report 40 million or more confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India?","Started_time":"2021-05-07","Closed_time":"2021-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health"],"Description":"India has faced a monumental surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths since April 2021 (BBC, AP). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). Data will be accessed as necessary no later than 2 October 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 July 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 October 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 July 2021","Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021","Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021","Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021","Not before 1 October 2021"],"target":"Not before 1 October 2021"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","Started_time":"2020-11-27","Closed_time":"2021-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country (Economist).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-12","Closed_time":"2021-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Health","US Policy"],"Description":"Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 (Economist, Fox News, Merck). \u201cCompassionate use\" and \"emergency use\" authorizations would count (FDA, FDA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-08","Closed_time":"2021-09-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government (Economist, Financial Times, OBC Transeuropa, Balkan Insight). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., OBC Transeuropa). The actual release of data is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 22 September 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 July 2021?","Started_time":"2021-04-30","Closed_time":"2021-09-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The US federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 21-22 September 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","Started_time":"2021-01-15","Closed_time":"2021-09-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 (Economist, Moscow Times). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma (RT, Forbes). In the event of a delay\/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 226 seats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 226 seats and 299 seats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"300 seats or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 226 seats","Between 226 seats and 299 seats","300 seats or more","Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"],"target":"300 seats or more"}
{"Question":"What will happen next to the United Arab Emirate's rolling 7-day average of confirmed cases of COVID-19?","Started_time":"2021-08-31","Closed_time":"2021-09-21","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge 2021","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"With one of the highest COVID-19 vaccination rates in the world, the UAE has continued to reopen to the rest of the world (Business Insider, Khaleej Times). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Our World in Data (Our World in Data - UAE, see \"Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases\" chart).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The 7-day average will reach 1,500 or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Neither will occur before 12 November 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The 7-day average will reach 1,500 or higher","The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower","Neither will occur before 12 November 2021"],"target":"The 7-day average will reach 500 or lower"}
{"Question":"Will the Liberal Party win a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections?","Started_time":"2021-08-20","Closed_time":"2021-09-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Canadian Governor General Mary Simon dissolved the Canadian parliament at PM Justin Trudeau's request on Sunday 15 August 2021 and set election day for 20 September 2021 (Edmonton Journal, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will 600 million people in India have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","Started_time":"2021-07-16","Closed_time":"2021-09-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"As the worst of the spring spike in COVID-19 cases in India has subsided, officials are racing to vaccinate Indians before a third wave strikes (Guardian, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government (India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare). Click \"Vaccination State Data,\" which opens a daily PDF report, \"Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination.\" Navigate to the \"India\" row and the column titled \"1st Dose.\" Data is reported in Indian notation; six hundred million (600,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 60 crore (60,00,00,000).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 12 November 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 September 2021","Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021","Between 25 September 2021 and 18 October 2021","Between 19 October 2021 and 11 November 2021","Not before 12 November 2021"],"target":"Between 1 September 2021 and 24 September 2021"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2022, will President Biden invite Prime Minister Boris Johnson to visit the White House?","Started_time":"2021-08-27","Closed_time":"2021-09-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Sky News Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"Biden has already met Johnson once since becoming president, but has so far only invited Queen Elizabeth II from the UK to the White House (Sky News, Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","Started_time":"2020-09-18","Closed_time":"2021-09-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down (Britannica). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU (Economist,\u00a0BBC, Independent).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","Started_time":"2021-01-15","Closed_time":"2021-09-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 (Economist, Dutch News, BBC, houseofrepresentatives.nl). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed (Reuters). A caretaker government would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 18 September 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021","Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021","Not before 18 September 2021"],"target":"Not before 18 September 2021"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-19","Closed_time":"2021-09-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 (CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 1.500 but less than 2.000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.000","Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive","More than 1.500 but less than 2.000","Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive","More than 2.500"],"target":"Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-02-19","Closed_time":"2021-09-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state (KCRA, NBC News). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot (Calmatters.org). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and Newsom will be recalled":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, and Newsom will be recalled","Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled","No"],"target":"Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"}
{"Question":"Will the UN, a UN agency, and\/or OECD member country publicly accuse Myanmar defense forces and\/or law enforcement of using a toxic chemical against protesters to cause intentional death or physical harm through its toxic properties before 15 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-26","Closed_time":"2021-09-15","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As civil unrest in Myanmar grows in the wake of the February coup, there are fears as to what lengths the military may go to suppress protests (BBC, Deutsche Welle). The use of riot control agents (e.g., \"tear gas\"), as defined in Article II, section 7 of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), would only count for the purposes of this question if the pertinent accusation claims its use was in violation of international law (CWC.gov, Arms Control Association, Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons). The identification of the exact chemical used against protesters would not be necessary for resolution. Examples include the use of white phosphorous in Myanmar in 2013 and Syria's use of chlorine in its civil war (BBC, Arms Control Association).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the 2020 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","Started_time":"2020-04-02","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["2020 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (Clean Technica, Financial Times). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2020, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study. The Mack Institute found that there was \"a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh\" (The Mack Institute).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $115 per kWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $115 and $130 per kWh, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $130 but less than $145 per kWh":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between $145 and $160 per kWh, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $160 per kWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $115 per kWh","Between $115 and $130 per kWh, inclusive","More than $130 but less than $145 per kWh","Between $145 and $160 per kWh, inclusive","More than $160 per kWh"],"target":"More than $130 but less than $145 per kWh"}
{"Question":"Will NFL quarterback Aaron Rodgers sign a player contract with an NFL team other than the Green Bay Packers before 9 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-28","Closed_time":"2021-09-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports"],"Description":"Aaron Rodgers' future with the Green Bay Packers has become unclear in the offseason (ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the US Congress agree to a new budget resolution?","Started_time":"2021-07-23","Closed_time":"2021-08-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Senate Democrats announced a new proposed budget deal designed to sidestep a filibuster (CNBC, Politico,  Senate Glossary, House Budget Committee). The last budget resolution was agreed to by the House and Senate on 5 February 2021 (Congress.gov - S.Con.Res.5, NPR). Legislation asserting the force and effect of a budget resolution would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 9 August 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 9 August 2021 and 30 September 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"Not before 1 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"}},"choices":["Before 9 August 2021","Between 9 August 2021 and 30 September 2021","Not before 1 October 2021"],"target":"Between 9 August 2021 and 30 September 2021"}
{"Question":"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-19","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","Economic Indicators","US Policy"],"Description":"The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult (Economist, Politico, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 (BLS - Release Schedule).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5.4%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 7.1%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 5.4%","Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive","More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%","Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive","More than 7.1%"],"target":"Less than 5.4%"}
{"Question":"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-29","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Entertainment"],"Description":"The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover (Economist, LA Times). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the \"Cumulative Gross\" column for June, July, and August 2021 (Box Office Mojo). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $200 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $500 million but less than $1 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than $1.75 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $200 million","Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive","More than $500 million but less than $1 billion","Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive","More than $1.75 billion"],"target":"Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","Started_time":"2020-10-16","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Environment","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people (Al-Monitor, BBC, Foreign Policy). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council (Egypt Today, UN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","Started_time":"2020-09-11","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. \u00a7 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","Started_time":"2020-09-11","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners (FEMA). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, \"terrorism\" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. \u00a7 2331(5) (Cornell). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State (State.gov). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and\/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","Started_time":"2020-12-18","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines (NY Times, Sinopharm, Sinovac, Guardian, BBC). For more details of the EMA\u2019s vaccine approval process, please see: AP, EMA, EMA - Approvals. For more details regarding the FDA\u2019s vaccine approval process, please see: FDA - Vaccine Development, FDA - Emergency Preparedness. Emergency use approvals would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only by the FDA":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only by the EMA":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, only by the FDA","Yes, only by the EMA","Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-08","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown (Economist, S&P Global). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/campaigns\/leveraged-loan. Under the \"Leveraged Loan Trends\" section, click on the \"Default Rate\" tab to show the \"Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)\" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the US announce a reduction or elimination of total punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber before 1 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-14","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The high cost of lumber is impacting housing prices in the US, and the approximately 9% punitive tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber only adds pressure to the market (Mortgage News Daily, CNN). A \"punitive tariff\" is either an antidumping or countervailing tariff, also referred to as a duty (Reference for Business). The Trump administration cut the punitive tariffs down from approximately 20% in late 2020 (PR Newswire, NAHB Now). The date a reduction or elimination of the total punitive tariffs would take effect is immaterial. A temporary reduction or elimination would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador before 1 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-08","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Mexican President Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections (Economist, Reuters). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President L\u00f3pez Obrador":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President L\u00f3pez Obrador":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President L\u00f3pez Obrador","Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President L\u00f3pez Obrador","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 September 2021, will Justice Stephen Breyer announce his retirement from the US Supreme Court?","Started_time":"2021-05-14","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"Speculation abounds as to whether Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer will retire after the current term (CNN, The Hill). The date that his retirement would take effect is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-04-02","Closed_time":"2021-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"A series of rape and sexual assault allegations has hit the Australian Parliament (ABC Australia, Guardian, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the UK have vaccinated 80% or more of its 18 and over population with a full course of a COVID-19 vaccine?","Started_time":"2021-06-04","Closed_time":"2021-08-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data from the UK government (Coronavirus.data.gov.uk). See \"Vaccination uptake, by report date,\" and select \"UK Total.\" If the UK government changes how it reports vaccination data (e.g., including the administration of single-dose vaccines), we will provide clarifying language as necessary (BBC). As of 2 June 2021, full course uptake in the UK was 50.7%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 July 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 August and 31 August 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 July 2021","Between 1 July 2021 and 31 July 2021","Between 1 August and 31 August 2021","Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021","Not before 1 October 2021"],"target":"Between 1 August and 31 August 2021"}
{"Question":"How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","Started_time":"2020-08-28","Closed_time":"2021-08-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Arab League consists of 22 member states (BBC, CNN, Arab League). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow (France24, Economist, Whitehouse.gov). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count (Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"2 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["2 or fewer","3","4","5","6 or more"],"target":"6 or more"}
{"Question":"Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","Started_time":"2020-11-13","Closed_time":"2021-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Environment","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 (EIA 19 October 2020, EIA 30 June 2020). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for \"Total\" under \"Renewable Energy\" (EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 3 October 2021, will the US Supreme Court block any part of the CDC's 3 August 2021 eviction moratorium order?","Started_time":"2021-08-13","Closed_time":"2021-08-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"On 3 August 2021, the CDC issued a new, revised 60-day eviction moratorium order to replace the order that expired at the end of July 2021 (NPR, CDC, The Hill). For the purposes of this question, \"block\" means an action by the Supreme Court that would prevent the order from having legal effect (e.g., denying a relevant appeal, a judgment declaring the moratorium illegal).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","Started_time":"2020-10-02","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard (LMTonline, Real Estate Weekly, Commercial Property Executive). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 (FRED).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 8.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.00%","Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive","More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%","Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive","More than 8.00%"],"target":"Less than 2.00%"}
{"Question":"Will legislation raising the US federal minimum wage become law before 20 August 2021?","Started_time":"2021-04-02","Closed_time":"2021-08-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"After the US Senate voted against a $15.00 an hour federal minimum wage, proponents have shifted to new strategies (The Hill, WSJ). The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour (Cornell, US Dept. of Labor). The effective date of a raise would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?","Started_time":"2021-07-16","Closed_time":"2021-08-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (NY Times, Military Times, NPR). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (Politico, CNN). A lockdown alone would not count (NPR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will President Biden\u2019s approval rating be as of 13 August 2021, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2021-05-14","Closed_time":"2021-08-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How [un]popular is Joe Biden?\" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 3 May 2021, Biden's approval rating was 53.5%. The data will be accessed for resolution on 16 August 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower than 45.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Higher than 50.0% but lower than 55.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"74%"},"55.0% or higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower than 45.0%","Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive","Higher than 50.0% but lower than 55.0%","55.0% or higher"],"target":"Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-07-16","Closed_time":"2021-08-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (Al Jazeera, Military Times). Whether or not Ghani has fled Afghanistan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","Started_time":"2020-12-31","Closed_time":"2021-08-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post (CBS News, Council on Foreign Relations, Federation of American Scientists, Cornell, TechCrunch).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","Started_time":"2020-12-18","Closed_time":"2021-08-14","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action (Forbes, NY Times, Nerd Wallet). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress (CNBC, Forbes). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5\u00b0C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","Started_time":"2020-07-31","Closed_time":"2021-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"Some expect the 1.5\u00b0C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary (BBC, World Meteorological Organization, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports (NOAA). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92\u00b0C above the 20th century average for June (NOAA - June 2020 Report).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","Started_time":"2021-02-24","Closed_time":"2021-08-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government (Deutsche Welle, Moscow Times). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations (Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation [in Russian], Moscow Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the FDA and\/or CDC recommend that at least some Americans fully vaccinated for COVID-19 receive a COVID-19 vaccine booster shot?","Started_time":"2021-07-23","Closed_time":"2021-08-13","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health","US Policy"],"Description":"On 8 July 2021, vaccine manufacturer Pfizer announced that it would seek emergency use authorization from the FDA for a booster shot to protect against COVID-19 (CNN, CBS News). On the same day, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a joint statement stating that \"Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time\" (hhs.gov). The administration of booster shots as part of medical research would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 September 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 September 2021","Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021","Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021","Not before 1 January 2022"],"target":"Before 1 September 2021"}
{"Question":"What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for July 2021, according to OPEC?","Started_time":"2021-04-09","Closed_time":"2021-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant","The Data Detective Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In early 2021 Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut oil production to a little over 8 million (or equivalently, 8,000 thousand) barrels per day, but it is looking to increase production starting in May 2021 (Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2021 and the outcome will be determined using data for Saudi Arabia as reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb\/d\" table in the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report for August 2021 (OPEC). The February 2021 report showing data for January 2021 reported that Saudi Arabia produced 9,054 thousand barrels per day (tb\/d) (OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report - February 2021, see Table 5-8 on page number 47).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 8,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 8,000 tb\/d and 8,500 tb\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 8,500 tb\/d but less than 9,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 9,000 tb\/d and 9,500 tb\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"More than 9,500 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"}},"choices":["Less than 8,000 tb\/d","Between 8,000 tb\/d and 8,500 tb\/d, inclusive","More than 8,500 tb\/d but less than 9,000 tb\/d","Between 9,000 tb\/d and 9,500 tb\/d, inclusive","More than 9,500 tb\/d"],"target":"Between 9,000 tb\/d and 9,500 tb\/d, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will happen next regarding New York Governor Andrew Cuomo?","Started_time":"2021-04-16","Closed_time":"2021-08-10","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is facing calls to resign amid a series of sexual harassment allegations and questions about his handling of COVID-19 policy with nursing homes (ABC News, CBS News, City & State New York). If Cuomo announces both that he will not seek reelection as governor and has resigned or will resign in the same statement, the question would close \"Cuomo will announce that he will resign as governor.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"None of these will occur before 1 April 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"}},"choices":["Cuomo will announce that he will not seek reelection as governor in 2022","Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor","Cuomo will be removed from office by an impeachment trial","None of these will occur before 1 April 2022"],"target":"Cuomo will either resign as governor or announce that he will resign as governor"}
{"Question":"Will Great Britain win more gold medals at the 2020 Olympics than the People's Republic of China?","Started_time":"2021-06-11","Closed_time":"2021-08-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 2020 Olympics are scheduled for 23 July - 8 August 2021 (Olympics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in women's football (soccer)?","Started_time":"2021-06-11","Closed_time":"2021-08-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The women\u2019s football gold medal match is scheduled for 6 August 2021 (Olympics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Great Britain":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Japan":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The Netherlands":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"United States":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"No gold medal will be awarded for this event":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Great Britain","Japan","The Netherlands","United States","Another country","No gold medal will be awarded for this event"],"target":"Another country"}
{"Question":"When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) exceed 350,000 in the UK?","Started_time":"2021-06-18","Closed_time":"2021-08-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"Increasing cases of the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) are presenting challenges for the UK (Guardian, Public Health England, British Medical Journal). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from Public Health England, published weekly here: https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. There were 42,323 total confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant in the UK up to 9 June 2021 (Variants: distribution of case data - 11 June 2021). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 11 August 2021, which is expected on 13 August 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"On or before 14 July 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15 July and 28 July 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 29 July and 11 August 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Not before 12 August 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["On or before 14 July 2021","Between 15 July and 28 July 2021","Between 29 July and 11 August 2021","Not before 12 August 2021"],"target":"Between 29 July and 11 August 2021"}
{"Question":"Will the presidents of Russia and Ukraine meet in person before 1 August 2021?","Started_time":"2021-04-30","Closed_time":"2021-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet amidst an increase in tensions in the Ukrainian Donbass region (NBC News, Unian, US News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, in either Russia or Ukraine":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, somewhere other than Russia or Ukraine":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, in either Russia or Ukraine","Yes, somewhere other than Russia or Ukraine","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 August 2021, will legislation authorizing or enabling an extension or replacement of the CDC's nationwide eviction moratorium past 31 July 2021 become law?","Started_time":"2021-07-02","Closed_time":"2021-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"On 24 June 2021, the CDC extended its nationwide eviction moratorium through 31 July 2021 (CDC, NPR). On 29 June 2021, the Supreme Court, by a 5-4 vote, rejected a request for the moratorium to be blocked, with Justice Kavanaugh noting that he believes \"clear and specific congressional authorization (via new legislation) would be necessary\" for another extension (US Supreme Court, The Hill). Legislation of nationwide applicability with exceptions would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-22","Closed_time":"2021-08-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years (TASS, Daily Mail). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted (CSIS). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","Started_time":"2020-10-30","Closed_time":"2021-06-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants (Apple). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales (9 to 5 Mac, ABS-CBN). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https:\/\/investor.apple.com\/investor-relations\/default.aspx under the \"Annual Reports on Form 10-K\" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 (Apple 10-K (2020), see page 21).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","Started_time":"2021-03-12","Closed_time":"2021-07-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled \"short squeeze\" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut (CNBC, Newsweek, Bloomberg, Wealth Daily). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $25 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than $55 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $25 billion","Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive","More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion","Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive","More than $55 billion","Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"],"target":"Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 28 July 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 June 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-19","Closed_time":"2021-07-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 27-28 July 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Which country will win the 2020 Olympic gold medal in men\u2019s synchronized 3-meter springboard diving?","Started_time":"2021-06-11","Closed_time":"2021-07-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The men\u2019s synchronized 3-meter springboard diving final is scheduled for 28 July 2021 (Olympics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"China":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"Germany":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Great Britain":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Russia (Russian Olympic Committee)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"No gold medal will be awarded for this event":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["China","Germany","Great Britain","Russia (Russian Olympic Committee)","Another country","No gold medal will be awarded for this event"],"target":"China"}
{"Question":"How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","Started_time":"2020-11-27","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth (Economist). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 (Tesla Q1 2020, Tesla Q2 2020). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under \"Shareholder Deck\" here: https:\/\/ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 150,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"350,000 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 150,000","Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","350,000 or more"],"target":"350,000 or more"}
{"Question":"Before 22 July 2021, will Hamas or the Israeli government accuse the other of violating the Gaza ceasefire agreed to on 20 May 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-21","Closed_time":"2021-07-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After 11 days of fighting in and around Gaza, Hamas and Israel agreed to a ceasefire (Economist, BBC, NBC News). For the purposes of this question, \"Israeli government\" means the prime minister or other cabinet-level ministers.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","Started_time":"2021-02-05","Closed_time":"2021-07-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions (NBA). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 (NBC Sports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Brooklyn Nets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Clippers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Lakers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Milwaukee Bucks":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Brooklyn Nets","Los Angeles Clippers","Los Angeles Lakers","Milwaukee Bucks","Another team","There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"],"target":"Milwaukee Bucks"}
{"Question":"When will the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) first represent more than 67.0% of COVID cases in the US?","Started_time":"2021-06-18","Closed_time":"2021-07-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"Delta variant (B.1.617.2, formerly known as the India variant) case growth in the United States raises concerns about a possible worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic in the fall (CBS News, CNN). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States, grouped in 2-week intervals, here: https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 May 2021, the Delta variant's percent share of COVID lineage in the US was 2.7% as of the launch of this question. Data from the \u201cNowcast\u201d option would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The two weeks ending 3 July 2021 or earlier":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The two weeks ending either 17 July 2021 or 31 July 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"The two weeks ending either 14 August 2021 or 28 August 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"The two weeks ending 11 September 2021 or 25 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 26 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The two weeks ending 3 July 2021 or earlier","The two weeks ending either 17 July 2021 or 31 July 2021","The two weeks ending either 14 August 2021 or 28 August 2021","The two weeks ending 11 September 2021 or 25 September 2021","Not before 26 September 2021"],"target":"The two weeks ending either 17 July 2021 or 31 July 2021"}
{"Question":"Will Berlin's Humboldt Forum open to the general public before 1 August 2021?","Started_time":"2021-04-02","Closed_time":"2021-07-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health","Entertainment","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After various delays, the Humboldt Forum in Berlin has been completed but remains shuttered due to COVID-19 restrictions (Economist, The Local (Germany), France 24, Humboldt Forum). The Humboldt Forum opening to the public with restrictions, such as requiring proof of COVID-19 vaccination or setting occupancy limits, would count. Opening only to specific groups (e.g., the press, artists) would not count as opening to the public.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","Started_time":"2020-12-04","Closed_time":"2021-06-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 (Economist, CNN, Reuters). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed (Peruvian Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"A candidate from Acci\u00f3n Popular (Popular Action)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["A candidate from Acci\u00f3n Popular (Popular Action)","A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)","A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)","A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)","Another candidate","There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"],"target":"Another candidate"}
{"Question":"Between 18 June 2021 and 18 July 2021, will protests in Peru result in any fatalities?","Started_time":"2021-06-17","Closed_time":"2021-07-18","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Peru's tight runoff election results have led to mostly peaceful demonstrations in Lima, recalling a week of political protests in late 2020 that turned violent (Reuters, NY Times, BBC). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Yes, between 1 and 10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, between 11 and 50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, between 51 and 150":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, more than 150":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["No","Yes, between 1 and 10","Yes, between 11 and 50","Yes, between 51 and 150","Yes, more than 150"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher on 16 July 2021 than it was on 16 June 2021?","Started_time":"2021-06-17","Closed_time":"2021-07-16","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"Oil prices have risen considerably in 2021 (Business Today). The outcome will be determined by the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The closing price of Brent on 16 June 2021 was $74.39\u00a0per barrel.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","Started_time":"2020-11-27","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen (Economist). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"More than 8.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"}},"choices":["Less than 5.0%","Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive","More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%","Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive","More than 8.0%"],"target":"Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and\/or Michael Spavor leave China?","Started_time":"2020-12-16","Closed_time":"2021-07-15","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China (Guardian, Toronto Star, CBC, South China Morning Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Michael Kovrig":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only Michael Spavor":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Michael Kovrig","Yes, only Michael Spavor","Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","Started_time":"2020-09-25","Closed_time":"2021-07-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Erdo\u011fan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO (Al Jazeera, BBC, Defense News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 15 July 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics will not commence in July 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-14","Closed_time":"2021-07-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics to summer 2021 (ESPN, Tokyo2020.org). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all (NPR, Business Insider).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?","Started_time":"2021-06-02","Closed_time":"2021-07-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 27 June 2021 through 3 July\ufeff 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 26 June 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 3 July 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 20,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 20,000 and 60,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 60,000 but fewer than 100,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between 100,000 and 140,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 140,000 but fewer than 180,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 180,000 and 220,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 220,000 but fewer than 260,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 260,000 and 300,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 300,000 but fewer than 340,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 340,000 and 380,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 380,000 but fewer than 420,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"420,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 20,000","Between 20,000 and 60,000, inclusive","More than 60,000 but fewer than 100,000","Between 100,000 and 140,000, inclusive","More than 140,000 but fewer than 180,000","Between 180,000 and 220,000, inclusive","More than 220,000 but fewer than 260,000","Between 260,000 and 300,000, inclusive","More than 300,000 but fewer than 340,000","Between 340,000 and 380,000, inclusive","More than 380,000 but fewer than 420,000","420,000 or more"],"target":"More than 60,000 but fewer than 100,000"}
{"Question":"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 3 July\ufeff 2021?","Started_time":"2021-06-02","Closed_time":"2021-07-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 27 June 2021 through 3 July\ufeff 2021, inclusive (JSU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 26 June 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 3 July 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4,000 but fewer than 5,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5,000 and 6,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7,000 and 8,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 8,000 but fewer than 9,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"9,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1,000","Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive","More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000","Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive","More than 4,000 but fewer than 5,000","Between 5,000 and 6,000 inclusive","More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,000","Between 7,000 and 8,000 inclusive","More than 8,000 but fewer than 9,000","9,000 or more"],"target":"Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","Started_time":"2021-01-15","Closed_time":"2021-07-11","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held (Reuters). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support (BBC, Reuters). The closing date for this question will not be extended.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats","Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most","No"],"target":"Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"}
{"Question":"How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 30 June 2021, according to the CDC?","Started_time":"2021-06-02","Closed_time":"2021-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for \u201cPeople Fully Vaccinated\u201d (CDC). The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 145,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 145,000,000 and 155,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"More than 155,000,000 but fewer than 165,000,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Between 165,000,000 and 175,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 175,000,000 but fewer than 185,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 185,000,000 and 195,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 195,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 145,000,000","Between 145,000,000 and 155,000,000, inclusive","More than 155,000,000 but fewer than 165,000,000","Between 165,000,000 and 175,000,000, inclusive","More than 175,000,000 but fewer than 185,000,000","Between 185,000,000 and 195,000,000, inclusive","More than 195,000,000"],"target":"More than 155,000,000 but fewer than 165,000,000"}
{"Question":"How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 June 2021, according to the CDC?","Started_time":"2021-06-02","Closed_time":"2021-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for \u201cPeople with at least One Dose\u201d (CDC). The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 175,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 175,000,000 and 185,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 185,000,000 but fewer than 195,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 195,000,000 and 205,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 205,000,000 but fewer than 215,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 215,000,000 and 225,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 225,000,000 but fewer than 235,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"235,000,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 175,000,000","Between 175,000,000 and 185,000,000, inclusive","More than 185,000,000 but fewer than 195,000,000","Between 195,000,000 and 205,000,000, inclusive","More than 205,000,000 but fewer than 215,000,000","Between 215,000,000 and 225,000,000, inclusive","More than 225,000,000 but fewer than 235,000,000","235,000,000 or more"],"target":"Between 175,000,000 and 185,000,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-12","Closed_time":"2021-07-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant","The Data Detective Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response (CNN, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 14.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 19.0 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 14.5 million","Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive","More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million","Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive","More than 19.0 million"],"target":"More than 19.0 million"}
{"Question":"How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 3 July 2021?","Started_time":"2021-06-02","Closed_time":"2021-07-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 3 July 2021 (HealthData.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 28 June 2021 through 4 July 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed on 12 July 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 5,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5,000 and 10,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"More than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"Between 15,000 and 20,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 20,000 but fewer than 25,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 30,000 but fewer than 35,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 40,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 5,000","Between 5,000 and 10,000, inclusive","More than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000","Between 15,000 and 20,000, inclusive","More than 20,000 but fewer than 25,000","Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","More than 30,000 but fewer than 35,000","Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive","More than 40,000"],"target":"More than 10,000 but fewer than 15,000"}
{"Question":"When will 300 million people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","Started_time":"2021-05-28","Closed_time":"2021-07-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health"],"Description":"In spring 2021, India became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic (CNBC, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data reported by the Indian government (India Ministry of Health and Family Welfare). Click \"Vaccination State Data,\" which opens a daily PDF report, \"Cumulative Coverage Report of COVID-19 Vaccination.\" Navigate to the \"India\" row and the column titled \"1st Dose.\" Data is reported in Indian notation; three hundred million (300,000,000) in international notation is equivalent to 30 crore (30,00,00,000).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 August 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 November 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 August 2021","Between 1 August 2021 and 31 August 2021","Between 1 September 2021 and 30 September 2021","Between 1 October 2021 and 31 October 2021","Not before 1 November 2021"],"target":"Before 1 August 2021"}
{"Question":"Which country will win the UEFA Euro 2020?","Started_time":"2021-06-04","Closed_time":"2021-07-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Health","Sports"],"Description":"The UEFA European Championship has been held every four years since 1960, but was postponed in 2020 due to COVID-19 (UEFA, Sky Sports). The tournament is currently scheduled for 11 June 2021 to 11 July 2021 (UEFA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Belgium":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"England":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"France":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Germany":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Portugal":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Spain":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"The Euro 2020 will be postponed to after July 2021 or canceled":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Belgium","England","France","Germany","Portugal","Spain","Another country","The Euro 2020 will be postponed to after July 2021 or canceled"],"target":"Another country"}
{"Question":"Before 1 September 2021, who will be the first to fly successfully to space, Jeff Bezos or Richard Branson?","Started_time":"2021-07-02","Closed_time":"2021-07-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Virgin Galactic has announced that founder Richard Branson will try to beat Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos to space in July 2021 (CNN, Axios, NY Post). For the purposes of this question, \"space\" is an altitude of at least 50 miles (80.47 km) (BBC, Space News). To be successful, a flight must safely return to Earth.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jeff Bezos":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Richard Branson":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Neither will fly successfully to space before 1 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Jeff Bezos","Richard Branson","Neither will fly successfully to space before 1 September 2021"],"target":"Richard Branson"}
{"Question":"Which NHL team will win the 2021 Stanley Cup Final?","Started_time":"2021-04-09","Closed_time":"2021-07-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 2021 Stanley Cup Final is scheduled to conclude no later than 9 July 2021 (NBC Sports, NHL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Carolina Hurricanes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Colorado Avalanche":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tampa Bay Lightning":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Toronto Maple Leafs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Vegas Golden Knights":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team or no team will win the 2021 Stanley Cup Final":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Carolina Hurricanes","Colorado Avalanche","Tampa Bay Lightning","Toronto Maple Leafs","Vegas Golden Knights","Another team or no team will win the 2021 Stanley Cup Final"],"target":"Tampa Bay Lightning"}
{"Question":"Who will win the Democratic Party primary for the New York City mayoral election?","Started_time":"2021-03-19","Closed_time":"2021-06-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Several Democratic candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to be the next mayor of New York City (NBC New York, Ballotpedia). The primaries, which will be held on 22 June 2021, will be the first to use ranked-choice voting (Wall Street Journal, FiveThirtyEight).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Eric Adams":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"Scott Stringer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Maya Wiley":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Andrew Yang":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"}},"choices":["Eric Adams","Scott Stringer","Maya Wiley","Andrew Yang","Someone else"],"target":"Eric Adams"}
{"Question":"For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-24","Closed_time":"2021-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 (Adamgrant.net). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list (NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4 and 8":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 9 and 13":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"Between 14 and 18":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"More than 18":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 4","Between 4 and 8","Between 9 and 13","Between 14 and 18","More than 18"],"target":"Between 14 and 18"}
{"Question":"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","Started_time":"2020-12-16","Closed_time":"2021-07-03","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health"],"Description":"While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next (CNN, CDC). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 April 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April and 30 June 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 January 2022":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 April 2021","Between 1 April and 30 June 2021","Between 1 July and 30 September 2021","Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021","Not before 1 January 2022"],"target":"Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-19","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum (Cardano, Securities.io, NASDAQ).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk (Coindesk). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $0.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $1.00 but less than $2.50":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $5.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $0.50","Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive","More than $1.00 but less than $2.50","Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive","More than $5.00"],"target":"More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"}
{"Question":"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-24","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Sports","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen (Economist, The Hill, FOXNews). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI (FBI.gov). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 8,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"71%"},"Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"More than 14,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 8,000,000","Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive","More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000","Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive","More than 14,000,000"],"target":"Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","Started_time":"2019-12-04","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile\u2019s pension system have grown (Reuters, IPE, Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit, Financial Times). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1418, which closes in 2020 (Question #1418). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and\/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","Started_time":"2019-12-04","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile\u2019s pension system have grown (Financial Times, AP, IPE, El Universal [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and\/or operating profits would count.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 (Question #1417). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","Started_time":"2020-08-14","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States (CNBC, TechCrunch, Starlink). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 July 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2021","Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","Not before 1 July 2021"],"target":"Not before 1 July 2021"}
{"Question":"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","Started_time":"2021-01-06","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues (CNBC, Motley Fool).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 April 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 July 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 April 2021","Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","Not before 1 July 2021"],"target":"Not before 1 July 2021"}
{"Question":"Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","Started_time":"2020-12-18","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called \u201cPhase One\u201d agreement signed in January 2020 (U.S. Trade Representative, CNBC, Reuters, FOX Business, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and\/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","Started_time":"2020-12-04","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections (Economist, BBC). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 (Diplomat). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only for president":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Yes, only for parliament":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, for both president and parliament":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, only for president","Yes, only for parliament","Yes, for both president and parliament","No"],"target":"Yes, only for president"}
{"Question":"Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-12","Closed_time":"2021-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS (Economist, Boeing, Reuters, Space.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","Started_time":"2021-02-16","Closed_time":"2021-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk (Coindesk).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less","Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more","Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"],"target":"Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"}
{"Question":"Which cricket team will win the 2021 ICC World Test Championship Final?","Started_time":"2021-05-18","Closed_time":"2021-06-18","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The International Cricket Council's (ICC's) World Test Championship Final is scheduled for 18-22 June 2021 in Southampton, England (ICC). There is currently no systemic way of dealing with a draw besides awarding joint championship (CricTracker).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"India":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"New Zealand":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"The match will end in a draw or tie":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"The 2021 Final will either be canceled or the first day will be postponed until after 18 July 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["India","New Zealand","The match will end in a draw or tie","The 2021 Final will either be canceled or the first day will be postponed until after 18 July 2021"],"target":"New Zealand"}
{"Question":"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","Started_time":"2020-12-11","Closed_time":"2021-06-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","US Policy"],"Description":"Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances (Oyez, SCOTUSblog, Bloomberg Law, National Law Review). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed (Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which will happen next regarding the price of Dogecoin?","Started_time":"2021-05-14","Closed_time":"2021-06-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using price data as reported in Coindesk's \"1y\" chart for Dogecoin (Coindesk).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Dogecoin will have a value of $1.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Dogecoin will have a value of $0.25 or less":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Neither will occur before 1 August 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Dogecoin will have a value of $1.00 or more","Dogecoin will have a value of $0.25 or less","Neither will occur before 1 August 2021"],"target":"Dogecoin will have a value of $0.25 or less"}
{"Question":"In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","Started_time":"2021-02-24","Closed_time":"2021-06-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Business","Sports","Entertainment","US Policy"],"Description":"The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits (NCAA). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law (CBS Sports, Oyez). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit (SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 (Supremecourt.gov).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who win the next Iranian presidential election?","Started_time":"2021-05-28","Closed_time":"2021-06-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The 2021 Iranian presidential election is currently scheduled for 18 June 2021 (BBC, RFE\/RL, Al Jazeera). If no candidate wins an absolute majority, a runoff between the two candidates receiving the most votes would take place the following Friday (Iran Constitution).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Abdolnasser Hemmati":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Saeed Jalili":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Mohsen Mehralizadeh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ebrahim Raisi":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Mohsen Rezai":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Alireza Zakani":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"None of these or there will be no election before 26 June 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi","Abdolnasser Hemmati","Saeed Jalili","Mohsen Mehralizadeh","Ebrahim Raisi","Mohsen Rezai","Alireza Zakani","None of these or there will be no election before 26 June 2021"],"target":"Ebrahim Raisi"}
{"Question":"Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","Started_time":"2020-12-22","Closed_time":"2021-06-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 (Reuters, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-24","Closed_time":"2021-06-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic (Economist, GTBA). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner (GBTA). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey (GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021, see questions 20 and 21, GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021, see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","Started_time":"2020-09-04","Closed_time":"2021-06-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 (Kaiser Family Foundation, Law.cornell.edu (see \u00a7(3)(A)), The Hill). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals (Politico, Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","Started_time":"2020-09-25","Closed_time":"2021-06-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics"],"Description":"In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents (Oyez). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech (Ballotpedia). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City (Third Circuit Court of Appeals, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-29","Closed_time":"2021-06-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-22","Closed_time":"2021-06-16","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden (NPR, CNBC, New Statesman). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the average price of whole milk powder as of 15 June 2021 be higher than it was as of 18 May 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-21","Closed_time":"2021-06-14","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"Milk prices have been on the rise in 2021 (Rural News Group). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by Global Dairy Trade, which posts new price data every first and third Tuesday of the month (Global Dairy Trade). As of 18 May 2021, the average price of whole milk powder was $4,123.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package before 1 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-04-23","Closed_time":"2021-05-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the \"Next Generation EU\" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (Economist,\u00a0European Council, European Parliament, European Commission). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (Ernst & Young, European Commission, Politico.eu). The question would resolve upon the last Member State notifying the EU that it has approved the decision (European Council).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?","Started_time":"2021-05-05","Closed_time":"2021-05-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for \u201cPeople Fully Vaccinated\u201d (CDC). The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 120,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 120,000,000 and 130,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 130,000,000 but fewer than 140,000,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between 140,000,000 and 150,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 150,000,000 but fewer than 160,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 160,000,000 and 170,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 170,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 120,000,000","Between 120,000,000 and 130,000,000, inclusive","More than 130,000,000 but fewer than 140,000,000","Between 140,000,000 and 150,000,000, inclusive","More than 150,000,000 but fewer than 160,000,000","Between 160,000,000 and 170,000,000, inclusive","More than 170,000,000"],"target":"More than 130,000,000 but fewer than 140,000,000"}
{"Question":"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 5 June\ufeff 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-05","Closed_time":"2021-06-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 30 May 2021 through 5 June\ufeff 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 29 May 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 5 June 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 12,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1,500","Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive","More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500","Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive","More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500","Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive","More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500","Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive","More than 12,000"],"target":"Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 5 June\ufeff 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-05","Closed_time":"2021-06-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 30 May 2021 through 5 June\ufeff 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 29 May 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 5 June 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 150,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 850,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 150,000","Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive","More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000","Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive","More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000","Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive","More than 850,000"],"target":"Fewer than 150,000"}
{"Question":"How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?","Started_time":"2021-05-05","Closed_time":"2021-05-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for \u201cPeople with at least One Dose\u201d (CDC). The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 170,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"More than 180,000,000 but fewer than 190,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 190,000,000 and 200,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 200,000,000 but fewer than 210,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 210,000,000 and 220,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 220,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 170,000,000","Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive","More than 180,000,000 but fewer than 190,000,000","Between 190,000,000 and 200,000,000, inclusive","More than 200,000,000 but fewer than 210,000,000","Between 210,000,000 and 220,000,000, inclusive","More than 220,000,000"],"target":"Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 5 June 2021?","Started_time":"2021-05-05","Closed_time":"2021-06-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 5 June\ufeff 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 31 May 2021 through 6 June 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 10,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"69%"},"More than 20,000 but fewer than 30,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Between 30,000 and 40,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 40,000 but fewer than 50,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 50,000 and 60,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 60,000 but fewer than 70,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 70,000 and 80,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 80,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 10,000","Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive","More than 20,000 but fewer than 30,000","Between 30,000 and 40,000, inclusive","More than 40,000 but fewer than 50,000","Between 50,000 and 60,000, inclusive","More than 60,000 but fewer than 70,000","Between 70,000 and 80,000, inclusive","More than 80,000"],"target":"Between 10,000 and 20,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","Started_time":"2020-10-09","Closed_time":"2021-06-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","Started_time":"2020-09-04","Closed_time":"2021-06-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Data Detective Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health"],"Description":"Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic (CNN). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Not before 1 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2021","Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021","Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021","Not before 1 October 2021"],"target":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"}
{"Question":"Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who \"worked from home exclusively\" fell below 20%?","Started_time":"2020-12-04","Closed_time":"2021-06-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health"],"Description":"The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed (Economist, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively (ONS, see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021.The Superforecaster version of this question is at The Economist dashboard.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","Started_time":"2020-12-09","Closed_time":"2021-06-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $2.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $2.50 but less than $3.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"More than $3.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $2.00","Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive","More than $2.50 but less than $3.00","Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive","More than $3.50"],"target":"Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","Started_time":"2020-10-16","Closed_time":"2021-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Health","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 (Government of Canada, U.S. Embassy - Canada, Bloomberg). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 December 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 June 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 December 2020","Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021","Not before 1 June 2021"],"target":"Not before 1 June 2021"}
{"Question":"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","Started_time":"2020-09-18","Closed_time":"2021-05-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atat\u00fcrk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 (UEFA, UEFA (Clubs)).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"England":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"France":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Germany":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Italy":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Spain":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"There will not be a 2020-21 final winner":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["England","France","Germany","Italy","Spain","Another country","There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"],"target":"England"}
{"Question":"When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","Started_time":"2020-09-18","Closed_time":"2021-05-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Health","Sports"],"Description":"Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers (BBC, Sky Sports, Goal, Premier League).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 19 October 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 24 May 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 19 October 2020","Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021","Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021","Not before 24 May 2021"],"target":"Not before 24 May 2021"}
{"Question":"Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-26","Closed_time":"2021-05-19","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","US Policy"],"Description":"NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic (Spectrum News, WABC). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity (nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page, nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide). Exemptions and\/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","Started_time":"2020-10-02","Closed_time":"2021-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates (Morningstar, KATU). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May (FRED). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than 1.6 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.0 million","Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive","More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million","Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive","More than 1.6 million"],"target":"Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","Started_time":"2020-11-13","Closed_time":"2021-05-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections (Economist,\u00a0Al Jazeera, BBC, CNN). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it (Ethiopian Constitution, see Article 93).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?","Started_time":"2021-04-07","Closed_time":"2021-04-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for \u201cPeople with at least One Dose\u201d (CDC). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 130,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 130,000,000 and 140,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 180,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 130,000,000","Between 130,000,000 and 140,000,000, inclusive","More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000","Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive","More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000","Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive","More than 180,000,000"],"target":"More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 1 May 2021?","Started_time":"2021-04-07","Closed_time":"2021-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 25 April 2021 through 1 May 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 24 April 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 1 May 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 150,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 850,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 150,000","Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive","More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000","Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive","More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000","Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive","More than 850,000"],"target":"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"}
{"Question":"How many people will have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?","Started_time":"2021-04-07","Closed_time":"2021-04-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for \u201cPeople Fully Vaccinated\u201d (CDC). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 85,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 85,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 105,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"},"Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"More than 115,000,000 but fewer than 125,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 125,000,000 and 135,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 135,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 85,000,000","Between 85,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive","More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 105,000,000","Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive","More than 115,000,000 but fewer than 125,000,000","Between 125,000,000 and 135,000,000, inclusive","More than 135,000,000"],"target":"Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 1 May 2021?","Started_time":"2021-04-07","Closed_time":"2021-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 25 April 2021 through 1 May 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 24 April 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 1 May 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"},"More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 12,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1,500","Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive","More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500","Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive","More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500","Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive","More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500","Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive","More than 12,000"],"target":"Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 1 May 2021?","Started_time":"2021-04-07","Closed_time":"2021-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 1 May 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 26 April 2021 through 2 May 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 15,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 85,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 15,000","Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive","More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000","Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive","More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000","Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive","More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000","Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive","More than 85,000"],"target":"More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"}
{"Question":"Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","Started_time":"2021-01-15","Closed_time":"2021-05-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 (Edinburgh Live, Parliament.scot, Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","Started_time":"2020-12-11","Closed_time":"2021-05-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the \"Bank Rate\" (Economist, Bank of England). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK (BBC, Guardian, S&P Global,\u00a0Financial Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","Started_time":"2021-01-29","Closed_time":"2021-04-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times (Economist, Barron's, Le Monde [in French]).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-05","Closed_time":"2021-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health","US Policy"],"Description":"On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following (ABC News, Dallas Morning News, Texas.gov). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 (TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard [click \u201cTrends\u201d], TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data [Excel file], TX DSHS - Probable Cases). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 150,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"550,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 150,000","Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive","More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000","Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive","More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000","550,000 or more"],"target":"Fewer than 150,000"}
{"Question":"Will the unemployment rate for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) exceed 5.00% in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-21","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and\/or Paralympics will be canceled?","Started_time":"2020-06-22","Closed_time":"2021-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Health","Sports"],"Description":"Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 (ESPN, Olympic Games, Paralympic Games). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all (BBC).\u00a0Postponement(s) alone would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, the Olympics only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, the Paralympics only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes, the Olympics only","Yes, the Paralympics only","Yes, both","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","Started_time":"2020-09-11","Closed_time":"2021-05-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California (Washington Post, CBS SF BayArea, California AB 2125, National Conference of State Legislatures). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and\/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, \"voting system\" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (U.S. Election Assistance Commission). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","Started_time":"2020-11-06","Closed_time":"2021-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position (Middle East Monitor, Times of Israel, Foreign Policy).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","Started_time":"2020-10-23","Closed_time":"2021-04-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India (France24). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5 or 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"7 or 8":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"9 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["3","4","5 or 6","7 or 8","9 or more"],"target":"7 or 8"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","Started_time":"2020-12-22","Closed_time":"2021-04-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","Started_time":"2020-11-09","Closed_time":"2021-04-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 July 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2021","Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021","Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","Not before 1 July 2021"],"target":"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2021 Oscar\u00ae for Best Motion Picture of the Year?","Started_time":"2021-03-17","Closed_time":"2021-04-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 93rd\u00a0Academy Awards, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 (Oscars).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Father":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Judas and the Black Messiah":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Mank":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Minari":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Nomadland":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Promising Young Woman":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Sound of Metal":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The Trial of the Chicago 7":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Father","Judas and the Black Messiah","Mank","Minari","Nomadland","Promising Young Woman","Sound of Metal","The Trial of the Chicago 7","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Nomadland"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?","Started_time":"2021-03-17","Closed_time":"2021-04-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 93nd\u00a0Academy Awards, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 25 April 2021 (Oscars).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Mank (David Fincher)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Nomadland (Chlo\u00e9 Zhao)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg)","Mank (David Fincher)","Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)","Nomadland (Chlo\u00e9 Zhao)","Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Nomadland (Chlo\u00e9 Zhao)"}
{"Question":"Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","Started_time":"2020-10-23","Closed_time":"2021-04-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy (BBC, Deutsche Welle, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Where will Dubai International Airport (DXB) rank among the busiest airports in the world by passenger number for 2020, according to the Airports Council International (ACI)?","Started_time":"2020-05-21","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["Dubai Future Experts Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health"],"Description":"In 2018, DBX served 89,189,387 passengers, ranking it as the third busiest airport in the world by passenger number according to ACI (International Airport Review, ACI). The outcome will be determined using the first available ACI data for busiest airports rankings by passenger number in 2020, expected to be released in 2021 (ACI).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"1st to 3rd":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4th to 6th":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"7th to 9th":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"10th or lower":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"}},"choices":["1st to 3rd","4th to 6th","7th to 9th","10th or lower"],"target":"10th or lower"}
{"Question":"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","Started_time":"2021-01-22","Closed_time":"2021-04-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control (CBC). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC (PHAC). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the \".CSV\" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (\"numtoday\") associated with daily entries for \"Canada\" under \"prname.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 June 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 March 2021","Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021","Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021","Not before 1 June 2021"],"target":"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"}
{"Question":"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","Started_time":"2021-03-05","Closed_time":"2021-04-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February (Coinbase Blog, SEC, Coindesk, Axios). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $75 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"More than $150 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $75 billion","Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive","More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion","Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive","More than $150 billion","Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"],"target":"Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","Started_time":"2021-03-03","Closed_time":"2021-03-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for \u201cPeople Receiving 1 or More Doses\u201d (CDC). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 70,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 115,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 70,000,000","Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive","More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000","Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive","More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000","Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive","More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000","Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive","More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000","Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive","More than 115,000,000"],"target":"Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","Started_time":"2020-12-04","Closed_time":"2021-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years (Economist, IMF - June 2020, World Economic Forum). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website (IMF), choose the appropriate \"World Economic Outlook Database\"; then choose \"Entire Dataset\"; then download the \"By Country Groups\" file in the \"Tab Delimited Values\" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as \"Gross domestic product, constant prices\" and Units as \"Percent change.\" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report (IMF - October 2020).The Superforecaster version of this question is at The Economist dashboard.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","Started_time":"2020-09-04","Closed_time":"2021-04-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Policy"],"Description":"To implement its Android operating system, \u201cGoogle copied 11,500 lines of Oracle\u2019s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs\u201d (Supremecourt.gov). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court (Oyez, SCOTUSblog, Lexology, ZDNet). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google\u2019s copying of Oracle\u2019s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-03","Closed_time":"2021-03-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 4,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"20,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 4,000","Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive","More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000","Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive","More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000","Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive","More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000","Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive","More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000","20,000 or more"],"target":"More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"}
{"Question":"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-03","Closed_time":"2021-03-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week ending 27 March 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 15,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"95,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 15,000","Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive","More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000","Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive","More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000","Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive","More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000","Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive","More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000","95,000 or more"],"target":"Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","Started_time":"2021-03-03","Closed_time":"2021-03-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"900,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 100,000","Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive","More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000","Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive","More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000","Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive","More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000","Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive","More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000","900,000 or more"],"target":"More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"}
{"Question":"How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","Started_time":"2020-06-26","Closed_time":"2021-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation (CNN, Scientific American, Lancet). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 (Africa CDC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 2.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 20.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 2.5 million","Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive","More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million","Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive","More than 20.0 million"],"target":"Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and\/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","Started_time":"2020-11-27","Closed_time":"2021-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021","Think Again with Adam Grant"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on (Economist, FDA, FDA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Zero":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Zero","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"3"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and\/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","Started_time":"2020-06-12","Closed_time":"2021-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea (CNN, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Diplomat). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","Started_time":"2020-11-13","Closed_time":"2021-04-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability (Guardian, Al Jazeera, Newsweek).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","Started_time":"2020-08-28","Closed_time":"2021-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the \"Next Generation EU\" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (European Council, European Parliament, European Commission). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (Ernst & Young, European Commission). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 April 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2020","Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","Not before 1 April 2021"],"target":"Not before 1 April 2021"}
{"Question":"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","Started_time":"2020-10-02","Closed_time":"2021-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country (BBC, Economist, France24, AP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 December 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 April 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 December 2020","Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021","Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021","Not before 1 April 2021"],"target":"Not before 1 April 2021"}
{"Question":"Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-22","Closed_time":"2021-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators (Reuters, NPR, CNBC). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather \"lying low\" (CNBC, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-22","Closed_time":"2021-03-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The infection rate (also known as Rt) \"is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect\" (COVID Act Now - Glossary). The outcome will be determined using data from covidactnow.org at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table \"Compare,\" set to \"States,\" under \"INFECTION RATE.\" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"7 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 8 and 14":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15 and 21":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 22 and 28":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"29 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["7 or fewer","Between 8 and 14","Between 15 and 21","Between 22 and 28","29 or more"],"target":"29 or more"}
{"Question":"Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","Started_time":"2020-12-22","Closed_time":"2021-03-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years (NY Times, Times of Israel, Foreign Policy).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"There will not be an election before 1 April 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party","Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party","There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"],"target":"Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"}
{"Question":"How many seats in the Legislative Assembly will New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) win in the 2021 Salvadoran legislative election?","Started_time":"2020-12-31","Closed_time":"2021-02-28","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The 2021 Salvadoran legislative election is scheduled for 28 February 2021 and all 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly are to be contested (21votes.com, El Salvador Perspectives). New Ideas (Nuevas Ideas) is a political party recently created by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele (NY Times, World Politics Review). A seat gained as part of a Coalition Pact (Pacto de Coalici\u00f3n) will count toward the resolution of this question (Tribunal Supremo Electoral\u00a0[in Spanish], Gato Encerrado\u00a0[in Spanish]).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 35":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 35 and 50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"More than 50 but fewer than 65":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"65 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 35","Between 35 and 50, inclusive","More than 50 but fewer than 65","65 or more"],"target":"More than 50 but fewer than 65"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-11-06","Closed_time":"2021-03-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-16","Closed_time":"2021-03-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere (Dogecoin, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk (Coindesk). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","Started_time":"2021-01-06","Closed_time":"2021-03-15","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (AP, Bloomberg, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Mexico\u2019s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?","Started_time":"2020-12-31","Closed_time":"2021-03-10","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico\u2019s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 (Forbes, Wall Street Journal, Xataka\u00a0[in Spanish], El Economista\u00a0[in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 March and 31 March 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 May 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 March 2021","Between 1 March and 31 March 2021","Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021","Not before 1 May 2021"],"target":"Between 1 March and 31 March 2021"}
{"Question":"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week starting 21 February 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-03","Closed_time":"2021-02-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' \"COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries\" for the week starting 21 February 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, \"previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed\" and \"previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,\" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are \"previous day\" data, we will use the data dated 22 February 2021 through 28 February 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 45,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"Between 45,000 and 60,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than 60,000 but fewer than 75,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 75,000 and 90,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 90,000 but fewer than 105,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 105,000 and 120,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 120,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 45,000","Between 45,000 and 60,000, inclusive","More than 60,000 but fewer than 75,000","Between 75,000 and 90,000, inclusive","More than 90,000 but fewer than 105,000","Between 105,000 and 120,000, inclusive","More than 120,000"],"target":"Fewer than 45,000"}
{"Question":"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-03","Closed_time":"2021-02-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 14,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Between 14,000 and 16,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"More than 16,000 but fewer than 18,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 18,000 and 20,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 20,000 but fewer than 22,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 22,000 and 24,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 24,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 14,000","Between 14,000 and 16,000, inclusive","More than 16,000 but fewer than 18,000","Between 18,000 and 20,000, inclusive","More than 20,000 but fewer than 22,000","Between 22,000 and 24,000, inclusive","More than 24,000"],"target":"Fewer than 14,000"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week starting 21 February 2021?","Started_time":"2021-02-03","Closed_time":"2021-02-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 February 2021 through 27 February 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 February 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 February 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 6 March 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 600,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 600,000 and 750,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 750,000 but fewer than 900,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 900,000 and 1,050,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,050,000 but fewer than 1,200,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,200,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,350,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 600,000","Between 600,000 and 750,000, inclusive","More than 750,000 but fewer than 900,000","Between 900,000 and 1,050,000, inclusive","More than 1,050,000 but fewer than 1,200,000","Between 1,200,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive","More than 1,350,000"],"target":"Fewer than 600,000"}
{"Question":"Will France grant the China Global Television Network (CGTN) a license to broadcast in France before 1 January 2022?","Started_time":"2021-02-26","Closed_time":"2021-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In February 2021, the UK Office of Communications (Ofcom) revoked CGTN\u2019s license to broadcast in the country, therefore cutting its access to other countries in Europe (Ofcom, Deutsche Welle, Council of Europe\u00a0[not the EU]). The Financial Times has reported that CGTN approached French regulators in December 2020 about seeking a license to broadcast in France, which could return CGTN to the UK and elsewhere (Financial Times, Reuters, Politico.eu). The date a license would take effect would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the average price of a gallon of gasoline fall below $1.95 for any week before 2 March 2021?","Started_time":"2020-11-17","Closed_time":"2021-03-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic drove gasoline prices under $2.00 per gallon across much of the country (Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for  \"Weekly U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices\" (EIA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?","Started_time":"2020-12-23","Closed_time":"2021-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined using data from https:\/\/covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table \"Compare,\" set to \"States,\" under \"DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K.\" For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Zero":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 and 3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4 and 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7 and 9":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"10 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Zero","Between 1 and 3","Between 4 and 6","Between 7 and 9","10 or more"],"target":"Zero"}
{"Question":"On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?","Started_time":"2020-12-23","Closed_time":"2021-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined using data from https:\/\/covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table \u201cCompare,\u201d set to \"States,\" under \"POSITIVE TEST RATE.\" For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"8 or fewer":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 9 and 15":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 and 22":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 23 and 29":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"30 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["8 or fewer","Between 9 and 15","Between 16 and 22","Between 23 and 29","30 or more"],"target":"8 or fewer"}
{"Question":"Who will be appointed as the next leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam?","Started_time":"2020-11-27","Closed_time":"2021-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Vietnam's next National Party Congress is scheduled for January 2021, at which the next secretary-general of the party is meant to be appointed (Economist, Vietnam Times). Rumors have suggested some of the top leadership positions could be consolidated (Diplomat).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ng\u00e2n":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Nguy\u1ec5n Xu\u00e2n Ph\u00fac":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tr\u1ea7n Qu\u1ed1c V\u01b0\u1ee3ng":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ng\u00e2n","Nguy\u1ec5n Xu\u00e2n Ph\u00fac","Tr\u1ea7n Qu\u1ed1c V\u01b0\u1ee3ng","Someone else","A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021"],"target":"A new leader will not be appointed before 1 March 2021"}
{"Question":"Before 1 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation at sea between the forces of India and the People's Republic of China?","Started_time":"2020-09-25","Closed_time":"2021-03-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over continued escalation of tensions between the two neighbors (BBC, Washington Post, Fox News, Wall Street Journal). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one or more fatalities of the forces-the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement officials-of either side. For the purposes of this question, \"at sea\" means any territorial or international waters and the airspace above them.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 9 November 2020 and 28 February 2021, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","Started_time":"2020-11-09","Closed_time":"2021-03-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","China and the World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC (Newsweek).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the People's Republic of China (PRC) officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 March 2021?","Started_time":"2020-11-09","Closed_time":"2021-03-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"In recent years, there has been speculation that China would declare an ADIZ over the South China Sea (Economist,\u00a0National Interest, CNN). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defense identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see: Defense.info, Economist, Inquirer.net.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 28 February 2021, according to the CDC?","Started_time":"2021-02-03","Closed_time":"2021-02-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as recorded by the CDC (updated daily) under \u201cNumber of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\u201d at approximately 10:00PM ET on 28 February 2021 (CDC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 50,000,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between 50,000,000 and 53,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 53,000,000 but fewer than 56,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 56,000,000 and 59,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 59,000,000 but fewer than 62,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 62,000,000 and 65,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 65,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 50,000,000","Between 50,000,000 and 53,000,000, inclusive","More than 53,000,000 but fewer than 56,000,000","Between 56,000,000 and 59,000,000, inclusive","More than 59,000,000 but fewer than 62,000,000","Between 62,000,000 and 65,000,000, inclusive","More than 65,000,000"],"target":"Fewer than 50,000,000"}
{"Question":"Will the United Arab Emirates (UAE) be ranked higher than 21st in the Global Food Security Index Rankings for 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-21","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total passengers will Australian airline Qantas carry in the second half of 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-27","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","Health"],"Description":"Like most airlines around the world, Qantas Airways Limited (Qantas) faces uncertainty amid the COVID-19 pandemic (Australian Securities Exchange, Airline Ratings). The question will suspend on 31 December 2020 and resolve when Qantas releases its half-year report for 1 July 2020 to 31 December 2020, usually in February. For the period of July 2019 to December 2019, Qantas Airways Limited reported 28,876,000 passengers carried (Qantas).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 16 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 16 million and 20 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 20 million but less than 24 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 24 million and 28 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 28 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 16 million","Between 16 million and 20 million, inclusive","More than 20 million but less than 24 million","Between 24 million and 28 million, inclusive","More than 28 million"],"target":"Less than 16 million"}
{"Question":"How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-04-02","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","2020 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations (Smart Energy, Reuters). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory for all of 2020, via the graph \"Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2020)\" when the filter for \"Charger type\" is set to \"Fast (>22kW)\" and the filters at the top of the page are set to \"European Union\" and \"2020\".This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1634. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 18,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 18,000 and 22,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 22,000 but less than 26,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between 26,000 and 30,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 30,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 18,000","Between 18,000 and 22,000, inclusive","More than 22,000 but less than 26,000","Between 26,000 and 30,000, inclusive","More than 30,000"],"target":"More than 22,000 but less than 26,000"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price of Mercado Libre stock on 15 February 2021?","Started_time":"2020-12-31","Closed_time":"2021-02-15","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Health"],"Description":"Latin American e-commerce company Mercado Libre has had a major surge in business during the COVID-19 pandemic (eMarketer). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1,600.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1,600.00 and $1,800.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $1,800.00 but less than $2,000.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between $2,000.00 and $2,200.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $2,200.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $1,600.00","Between $1,600.00 and $1,800.00, inclusive","More than $1,800.00 but less than $2,000.00","Between $2,000.00 and $2,200.00, inclusive","More than $2,200.00"],"target":"More than $1,800.00 but less than $2,000.00"}
{"Question":"Will Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) conduct any joint naval exercises before 1 March 2021?","Started_time":"2020-11-09","Closed_time":"2021-02-15","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy"],"Description":"Russia and China have engaged in joint naval exercises in the past, both bilaterally and with other nations (Diplomat, CNN). Both Russia and the PRC conducting joint naval exercises with one or more other navies would also count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 14 February 2021, will former King Juan Carlos I and\/or former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?","Started_time":"2020-08-14","Closed_time":"2021-02-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Former King Juan Carlos I of Spain has reportedly left Spain in light of recent controversies, while former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has continued living abroad in exile following the 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal (BBC, CatalanNews, AP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Juan Carlos I":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only Carles Puigdemont":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Juan Carlos I","Yes, only Carles Puigdemont","Yes, both","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many U.S. senators will vote to convict former President Donald Trump of incitement of insurrection?","Started_time":"2021-02-11","Closed_time":"2021-02-13","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"On 13 January 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump for incitement of insurrection in the wake of the 6 January 2021 storming of the Capitol Building (NPR, H.Res.24). The Senate trial began on 9 February 2021 (Time, BBC). If the Senate does not vote on the charge before 1 May 2021, the question will close \"Fewer than 51.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 51":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 51 and 55":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Between 56 and 61":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"Between 62 and 66":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"67 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 51","Between 51 and 55","Between 56 and 61","Between 62 and 66","67 or more"],"target":"Between 56 and 61"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 1 September 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-29","Closed_time":"2021-02-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After the resignation of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, how the next Italian government will be formed -- and how Italy will continue to weather the COVID-19 crisis -- remains to be seen (Economist, BBC, thelocal.it). Neither a reappointment of Conte nor the appointment of a caretaker prime minister would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 13 November 2020 and 12 February 2021, will the closing price per barrel of WTI crude oil be higher than the closing price per barrel of Brent crude oil?","Started_time":"2020-11-13","Closed_time":"2021-02-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a benchmark price for oil in the U.S., while Brent is a benchmark price for oil from the North Sea (Investopedia). The spread, or difference, between the price of the two is an important metric in energy markets (Oil Price, CME Group). The outcome will be determined using futures prices as provided by Bloomberg (WTI: Bloomberg - WTI, Brent: Bloomberg - Brent).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LV?","Started_time":"2021-01-08","Closed_time":"2021-02-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Super Bowl LV (55) is scheduled for Sunday 7 February in Tampa, FL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The AFC Champion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"The NFC Champion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"No Super Bowl will be played before 8 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The AFC Champion","The NFC Champion","No Super Bowl will be played before 8 March 2021"],"target":"The NFC Champion"}
{"Question":"When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 35 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the Europe Region?","Started_time":"2020-11-09","Closed_time":"2021-02-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"Europe\u2019s \u201csecond wave\u201d of COVID-19 has increased concerns regarding the impact of the disease on the continent (Economist, Guardian). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 July 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2021","Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021","Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021","Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021","Not before 1 July 2021"],"target":"Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"}
{"Question":"Will the New START treaty be extended by Russia and the U.S. before 6 February 2021?","Started_time":"2021-01-08","Closed_time":"2021-02-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Russia and the U.S. signed the current \"New START\" treaty in 2010, which was intended to further reduce stockpiles of nuclear weapons in each country (Moscow Times). The treaty is set to expire on 5 February 2021 unless it is extended for up to five years by mutual agreement or superseded by another agreement (Federation of American Scientists, Newsweek).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the Americas Region as of 1 February 2021?","Started_time":"2020-12-31","Closed_time":"2021-02-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"Concern regarding the COVID-19 situation in the Americas has increased (Wall Street Journal, CNN). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 42,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 42,000,000 and 44,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 44,000,000 but fewer than 46,000,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 46,000,000 and 48,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 48,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 42,000,000","Between 42,000,000 and 44,000,000, inclusive","More than 44,000,000 but fewer than 46,000,000","Between 46,000,000 and 48,000,000, inclusive","More than 48,000,000"],"target":"More than 44,000,000 but fewer than 46,000,000"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 February 2021?","Started_time":"2020-12-31","Closed_time":"2021-02-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 3,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,000,000 and 3,500,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 4,000,000 and 4,500,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4,500,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 3,000,000","Between 3,000,000 and 3,500,000, inclusive","More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000","Between 4,000,000 and 4,500,000, inclusive","More than 4,500,000"],"target":"More than 3,500,000 but fewer than 4,000,000"}
{"Question":"Will there be 12 or more Chapter 9 municipal bankruptcy filings in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-21","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-10","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","2020 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past (Reuters, Shine.cn, CNBC, Inside EVs). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million (Caam.org [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics, Caam.org.cn\u00a0[in Chinese], Caam.org.cn\u00a0[in English], China Daily).This question is the shorter-term companion of question\u00a0#1698. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 800,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 950,000 but less than 1,100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,100,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"More than 1,250,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 800,000","Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive","More than 950,000 but less than 1,100,000","Between 1,100,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive","More than 1,250,000"],"target":"More than 1,250,000"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 27 January 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-09-18","Closed_time":"2021-01-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 26-27 January 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"In its January 2021 World Economic Outlook report, by how much will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimate the global economy grew in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-06","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Dubai Future Experts Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"In its January 2020 report, the IMF projected global growth to rise 3.3 percent in 2020 (IMF). The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has raised questions regarding global economic growth in 2020 and beyond (Reuters, ABC News, NY Times). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2020 and the outcome will be determined using the IMF's estimate for 2020 in its World Economic Outlook report scheduled to be published in January 2021 (IMF).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1.5% and 2.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.1% and 2.6%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.7% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.5%","Between 1.5% and 2.0%, inclusive","Between 2.1% and 2.6%, inclusive","Between 2.7% and 3.0%, inclusive","More than 3.0%"],"target":"Less than 1.5%"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new prime minister of Italy before 24 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-01-24","Closed_time":"2021-01-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte entered 2020 after a politically tumultuous year (Guardian, NY Times, CNN). Any reappointment of Conte would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the UAE\u2019s Customer Happiness Index be higher for 2020 as compared to 2019?","Started_time":"2020-05-21","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 21 January 2021, will the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) enter into a consent order that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship?","Started_time":"2020-12-09","Closed_time":"2021-01-21","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","US Policy"],"Description":"The Trump administration is exploring ways to allow mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to leave federal conservatorship, which was imposed in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis (FHFA, Wall Street Journal, Housing Wire, Bloomberg). Democrats are pushing back on the plan (House Financial Services Committee, Reuters). The date that Fannie Mae and\/or Freddie Mack would actually leave conservatorship is immaterial. A consent order would count so long as it provides for an exit to occur unless the FHFA takes further action.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Donald Trump cease to be president of the United States?","Started_time":"2019-09-11","Closed_time":"2021-01-20","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before Inauguration Day 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"On Inauguration Day 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"After Inauguration Day 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before Inauguration Day 2021","On Inauguration Day 2021","After Inauguration Day 2021"],"target":"On Inauguration Day 2021"}
{"Question":"For any month between and including October 2019 and December 2020, will the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone reach or exceed 2.0%?","Started_time":"2019-10-25","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"As the European Central Bank (ECB) continues its programs of quantitative easing and negative interest rates in the face of recession fears, there are concerns that the ECB will not be able to return to its inflation target of \"below, but close to, 2% over the medium term\" (MarketWatch, AP,\u00a0Financial Times, ECB). The outcome will be determined based on Eurostat data for \"Euro area (19 countries)\" (Eurostat).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","Started_time":"2020-07-24","Closed_time":"2021-01-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health"],"Description":"The U.S. government imposed a \"No Sail Order\" on cruise ships in March 2020, which has been repeatedly extended (CDC, CNBC). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 2 October 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2 October 2020 and 23 November 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 24 November 2020 and 15 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 16 January 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 2 October 2020","Between 2 October 2020 and 23 November 2020","Between 24 November 2020 and 15 January 2021","Not before 16 January 2021"],"target":"Not before 16 January 2021"}
{"Question":"What will U.S. holiday season retail sales be for 2020 relative to the 2019 holiday season?","Started_time":"2020-10-23","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"U.S. retail sales have had dramatic swings during the COVID-19 pandemic, placing the fate of retailers' all-important holiday season in flux (Business Wire, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted \"Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas\" data from the U.S. Census Bureau for November and December 2020 relative to the same period in 2019, expected to be released in January 2021 (Census.gov). To retrieve the data go to https:\/\/www.census.gov\/retail\/index.html and under the \"Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report\" section, select \"Time Series\/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series.\" Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select \"Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services,\" (2) set Start at 2019 and End at 2020, (3) select \"44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas,\" (4) select \"Sales - Monthly,\" and (5) select \"U.S. Total\" and check off only \"Seasonally Adjusted.\"\u00a0 For November and December 2019, the Bureau reported combined sales of 754,030 [millions of dollars].","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 2.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"Higher by more than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 2.5%","Lower by between 0.0% and 2.5%, inclusive","Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5%","Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive","Higher by more than 5.0%"],"target":"Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 21 January 2021, will the House of Representatives, pursuant to the 12th Amendment, vote to choose a president of the United States?","Started_time":"2020-10-15","Closed_time":"2021-01-07","Challenges_list":["US Election 2020","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","US Policy"],"Description":"Per the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, the House of Representatives votes for the next president of the United States with one vote per state in the event that the electoral college fails to select a president (Cornell (Amendment XII)). The question would close upon the counting of electoral votes by a joint session of Congress designating a winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will OPEC+ decide to do with regard to oil production at its next meeting?","Started_time":"2020-12-11","Closed_time":"2021-01-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","The Economist: The World in 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"At the 12th OPEC+ (or OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, ONOMM) in December 2020, participating countries decided to adjust production upward by 0.5 million barrels a day (reducing agreed-to output cuts from 7.7 mb\/d to 7.2 mb\/d) beginning in January 2021 (OPEC, Economist, Al Jazeera, Reuters). The next OPEC+ is expected to be held in January 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Adjust production upward":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"No decision to adjust production":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Adjust production downward":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The next OPEC+ will not be held before 1 February 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Adjust production upward","No decision to adjust production","Adjust production downward","The next OPEC+ will not be held before 1 February 2021"],"target":"Adjust production upward"}
{"Question":"How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 11 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-08-18","Closed_time":"2021-01-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The Rt is \"the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person\" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 11 January 2021 at https:\/\/rt.live. As of 18 August 2020, 20 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"7 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 8 and 12":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13 and 17":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 18 and 22":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"23 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["7 or fewer","Between 8 and 12","Between 13 and 17","Between 18 and 22","23 or more"],"target":"23 or more"}
{"Question":"Which party will win control of the U.S. Congress in the 2020 elections?","Started_time":"2020-03-06","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"In addition to the presidential election, control of Congress is also being watched closely (Roll Call). If control of a chamber is dependent upon a run-off or a recount, the question will remain suspended as scheduled and resolve when the outcome is known.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Democrats will control the House and Senate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"Democrats will control the House, Republicans the Senate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"Republicans will control the House, Democrats the Senate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Republicans will control the House and Senate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Democrats will control the House and Senate","Democrats will control the House, Republicans the Senate","Republicans will control the House, Democrats the Senate","Republicans will control the House and Senate"],"target":"Democrats will control the House and Senate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Georgia (Class II seat) in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-21","Closed_time":"2021-01-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"While Republicans control the U.S. Senate going into the 2020 elections, the GOP is defending 23 seats while Democrats are defending only 12 this November (270 to Win, The Hill). The incumbent for this seat is Sen. David Perdue.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win Georgia's special election runoff for the U.S. Senate (Class III seat)?","Started_time":"2020-11-13","Closed_time":"2021-01-05","Challenges_list":["US Election 2020","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Because no candidate won a majority of votes in Georgia's 2020 special election for the U.S. Senate, a runoff has been scheduled for 5 January 2021 that could decide control of the Senate (CNN, WTOC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Kelly Loeffler (R)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"Raphael Warnock (D)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52%"}},"choices":["Kelly Loeffler (R)","Raphael Warnock (D)"],"target":"Raphael Warnock (D)"}
{"Question":"How many homicides will there be in Chicago, IL, in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-31","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health"],"Description":"While violent crime fell significantly in many parts of the U.S. as stay-at-home orders related to COVID-19 were implemented, the city of Chicago has had no reprieve (France24, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the Chicago Tribune (Chicago Tribune).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 676":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 676 and 735":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 736 and 795":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 795":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 676","Between 676 and 735","Between 736 and 795","More than 795"],"target":"Between 736 and 795"}
{"Question":"How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-06-05","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 250,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 350,000 and 400,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 400,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 250,000","Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive","More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000","Between 350,000 and 400,000, inclusive","More than 400,000"],"target":"More than 400,000"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will the European Union delay and\/or relax the implementation and\/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and\/or new light commercial vehicles?","Started_time":"2020-05-15","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union request the consent of the European Parliament to conclude a European Union-United Kingdom trade agreement?","Started_time":"2020-01-31","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The United Kingdom exited the European Union on 31 January 2020. The Withdrawal Agreement transition period ends on 31 December 2020, though there is provision for a possible extension (Europa). If a trade deal is not concluded by the end of the transition period, there are fears that the ensuing \u201chard Brexit\u201d could cause significant economic harm (BBC, Institute for Government). For more information on the EU trade negotiation process, please see (note stage #23): https:\/\/trade.ec.europa.eu\/doclib\/docs\/2012\/june\/tradoc_149616.pdf. An example of the Council of the European Union requesting the consent of the European Parliament to conclude a trade agreement is the EU-Canada accord in 2016 (Europa).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Iowa's 2nd Congressional District in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-04","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"What will be the value of Total Assets of the Federal Reserve as of Wednesday 30 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-21","Closed_time":"2020-12-30","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $8 trillion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between $8 trillion and $9 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $9 trillion but less than $10 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $10 trillion and $11 trillion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $11 trillion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $8 trillion","Between $8 trillion and $9 trillion, inclusive","More than $9 trillion but less than $10 trillion","Between $10 trillion and $11 trillion, inclusive","More than $11 trillion"],"target":"Less than $8 trillion"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will federal criminal charges be filed against any of the Minneapolis police officers involved in the death of George Floyd?","Started_time":"2020-06-12","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team's offense will average the most yards per game in the 2020 regular season?","Started_time":"2020-11-17","Closed_time":"2021-01-03","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"NFL Stat Leaders 2020\" data as reported by ESPN (ESPN). In the event of a tie, the team that scored the most points per game (PTS\/G) will be considered to have averaged the most yards per game, followed by team record.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Arizona Cardinals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Kansas City Chiefs":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Los Angeles Chargers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Seattle Seahawks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Arizona Cardinals","Kansas City Chiefs","Los Angeles Chargers","Seattle Seahawks","Another team"],"target":"Kansas City Chiefs"}
{"Question":"Which NFL quarterback will throw for the most touchdowns in the 2020 regular season?","Started_time":"2020-11-17","Closed_time":"2021-01-03","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"NFL Player Passing Stats 2020\" data as reported by ESPN (ESPN). In the event of a tie, the quarterback who threw for the most yards per game (YDS\/G) will be considered to have thrown for the most touchdowns, followed by completion percentage (CMP%).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Tom Brady":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Patrick Mahomes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Aaron Rogers":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Russell Wilson":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another quarterback":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Tom Brady","Patrick Mahomes","Aaron Rogers","Russell Wilson","Another quarterback"],"target":"Aaron Rogers"}
{"Question":"Will Nancy Pelosi be re-elected as Speaker of the House of Representatives in the 117th Congress?","Started_time":"2020-11-13","Closed_time":"2021-01-03","Challenges_list":["US Election 2020","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As hopes for a \"blue wave\" in the 2020 U.S. elections did not materialize and Democrats have lost several net seats in the House of Representatives, speculation abounds as to whether Speaker Pelosi will continue on in the role (Politico, CBS News, Newsweek). The House will elect its Speaker for the 117th Congress on or about 3 January 2021 (EveryCRSReport.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-13","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Health","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The spread of desert locusts in East Africa is testing an already food-insecure region (BBC, Foreign Policy, Food and Agriculture Organization). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law before 1 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-06-16","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 6.0% in the second half of 2020?","Started_time":"2020-06-26","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"July 2020 or August 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"September 2020 or October 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"November 2020 or December 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before January 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["July 2020 or August 2020","September 2020 or October 2020","November 2020 or December 2020","Not before January 2021"],"target":"Not before January 2021"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will the Council of the European Union decide to impose an arms embargo against Turkey?","Started_time":"2020-11-06","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"As Turkey continues to survey the Eastern Mediterranean for oil and gas over the strenuous objections of Greece and Cyprus, the European Union is considering a \"less positive\" response to Turkish actions -- though there are divisions among member states (European Council\/Council of the European Union, National Herald, Greek City Times, European Commission). The European Council is next scheduled to meet on 10-11 December 2020 (European Council).\u00a0Actions taken by individual member states would not count (Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 10 July and 31 December 2020, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","Started_time":"2020-07-10","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","2020 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve (Ars Technica, ABC News, NY Times, Centre for International Governance Innovation). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.This question is the shorter-term companion of question\u00a0#1696. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, a firm":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, a paid backup driver":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Yes, both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Yes, a firm","Yes, a paid backup driver","Yes, both","No"],"target":"Yes, a paid backup driver"}
{"Question":"How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-02","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","2020 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Environment"],"Description":"The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes (MY EV). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2020 at 5:00PM ET (Alternative Fuels Data Center). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the \"Advanced Filters\" tab.\u00a0 First select \"Location\" on the left and set \"Country\" to be \"United States\" while keeping \"State\/Territory\" to be \"All.\" Then select \"Fuel\" on the left. Under \"Filter by Fuel Type\" select \"Electric\" and set \"Charger types\" to be only \"DC Fast\" while keeping \"Connectors\" and \"Networks\" to be \"All.\"This question is the shorter-term companion of question #1678.\u00a0The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 3,900":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,900 and 4,200, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4,200 but fewer than 4,500":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"4,500 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 3,900","Between 3,900 and 4,200, inclusive","More than 4,200 but fewer than 4,500","4,500 or more"],"target":"More than 4,200 but fewer than 4,500"}
{"Question":"Will phase 4 of the HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Solar Energy Park be operational before 1 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-05-21","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will the Barakah nuclear power plant begin to supply electricity to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) power grid?","Started_time":"2020-06-26","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will Alassane Ouattara cease to be the president of Ivory Coast?","Started_time":"2020-09-18","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Protests over Ouattara's eligibility to run for re-election have plagued Ivory Coast (Reuters, Al Jazeera). Elections are scheduled for 31 October 2020 and if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a second round will be held (Constituteproject.org).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Scott Morrison cease to be prime minister of Australia before 1 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-02-14","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Australian government's response to the bushfires in the country has eroded the standing of the prime minister (abc.net.eu, Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, who will be elected to be the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party?","Started_time":"2020-06-19","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"A race to succeed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer began when she announced unexpectedly in February 2020 that she would step down as CDU party leader (BBC). A leadership vote is expected in December 2020 (Foreign Brief, Euractiv).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Armin Laschet":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Friedrich Merz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Norbert R\u00f6ttgen":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Armin Laschet","Friedrich Merz","Norbert R\u00f6ttgen","Someone else","A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021"],"target":"A new leader will not be elected before 1 January 2021"}
{"Question":"Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 1 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-12-09","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Section 230 is a statute that shields social media companies from liability for content their users post (Council on Foreign Relations, FAS, \u00a7230). President Trump has threatened to veto a defense spending bill unless Section 230 is repealed (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-06-04","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite increasing international pressure and domestic instability (CNBC, Global Risk Insights, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will pro-democracy candidates win a Legislative Council majority in Hong Kong's next legislative election?","Started_time":"2020-07-17","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Legislative elections are upcoming in Hong Kong on the heels of a new security law imposed by Beijing in late June (Hong Kong Free Press, South China Morning Post, The Hill, The Atlantic). Elections are scheduled for 6 September 2020. The outcome will be determined using credible international reporting (e.g., BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No election will be held in 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes","No","No election will be held in 2020"],"target":"No election will be held in 2020"}
{"Question":"Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be the prime minister of Israel before 1 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-01-17","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Prime Minister Netanyahu faces an array of challenges, including criminal corruption charges and the third Knesset election within a year scheduled for 2 March 2020 (Times of Israel, Sydney Morning Herald).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will it be announced that the fueling of the Vogtle nuclear reactor Unit 3 has begun?","Started_time":"2020-07-24","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Environment"],"Description":"Georgia's Vogtle Electric Generating Plant will become the country's largest nuclear power plant with the addition of new reactor Units 3 and 4, the first new nuclear power units built in the United States in decades (Daily Energy Insider, Georgia Power). The current goal is for Unit 3 to be in service towards the end of 2021, with an initial fuel load being a significant milestone towards meeting that goal (Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, Power Engineering, PR Newswire).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the Council of the European Union make an Article 7.1 determination against Hungary before 31 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-04-17","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Hungary's parliament passed emergency measures to allow the government to rule by decree during the coronavirus pandemic, a move being criticized by many as authoritarian (Politico.eu, The Atlantic). Hungary is currently facing Article 7 proceedings, which enables the Council of the European Union to determine whether a member state's actions risk a serious breach of the values of the Treaty of the European Union (Europa.eu, Deutsche Welle, Politico.eu).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","Started_time":"2020-01-03","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Regional tensions in the Middle East are running high since attacks against commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman, the downing of a U.S. drone, and missile attacks on Saudi oil fields in 2019 (BBC, NBC News, Al Jazeera). The deaths of General Qasem Soleimani and others in a 3 January 2020 U.S. missile strike in Baghdad in the wake of attacks on the U.S. embassy in Iraq have further inflamed tensions, with Iran warning of retaliation (BBC, NBC News). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces.\u00a0A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will Ali Khamenei cease to be the supreme leader of Iran and\/or Hassan Rouhani cease to be the president of Iran?","Started_time":"2020-03-13","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health","Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Iran has been hit hard by the COVID-19 outbreak, with 9,000 cases reported as of 12 March 2020 (WHO). Already economically weakened and facing new challenges with the price of oil, there is speculation as to whether or not the current government can endure the outbreak (Atlantic, BBC, Washington Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Ali Khamenei will cease to be supreme leader":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only Hassan Rouhani will cease to be president":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both Ali Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani will cease to hold their respective positions, with neither replacing the other":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both Ali Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani will cease to hold their respective positions, with at least one replacing the other":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Ali Khamenei will cease to be supreme leader","Yes, only Hassan Rouhani will cease to be president","Yes, both Ali Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani will cease to hold their respective positions, with neither replacing the other","Yes, both Ali Khamenei and Hassan Rouhani will cease to hold their respective positions, with at least one replacing the other","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and\/or People\u2019s Armed Police (PAP) be mobilized in Hong Kong?","Started_time":"2020-01-24","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Protests in Hong Kong that began in June 2019 have evolved into broader anti-government protests (Reuters). Reports indicate that China's central government could mobilize PLA and\/or PAP troops in Hong Kong (Reuters, Public Radio International, Foreign Policy). For the purposes of this question, \"mobilized\" means actively engaged in military or law enforcement actions against protesters within the territory of Hong Kong.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 31 December 2020?","Started_time":"2019-11-29","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $250.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $250.00 and $300.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $300.00 but less than $350.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $350.00 and $400.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $400.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than $250.00","Between $250.00 and $300.00, inclusive","More than $300.00 but less than $350.00","Between $350.00 and $400.00, inclusive","More than $400.00"],"target":"More than $400.00"}
{"Question":"Will a piece of federal legislation providing for $250 billion or more of new fiscal stimulus become law in the U.S. before 1 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-12-09","Closed_time":"2020-12-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"In response to the economic consequences from the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers have made efforts to stimulate the American economy (CNBC). Debate over another round of fiscal stimulus continues (CNBC, Washington Post). The outcome will be determined using the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's covidmoneytracker.org interactive table by selecting legislation that becomes law during the question's open period (if any) and totaling the amount \"ALLOWED\" in the \"Legislative\" subtotal (COVID Money Tracker). Amounts in the \"Administrative\" and \"Federal Reserve\" subtotals would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2020?","Started_time":"2019-11-08","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $35 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $35 billion and $50 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $50 billion but less than $65 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $65 billion and $80 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $80 billion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than $35 billion","Between $35 billion and $50 billion, inclusive","More than $50 billion but less than $65 billion","Between $65 billion and $80 billion, inclusive","More than $80 billion"],"target":"More than $80 billion"}
{"Question":"When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","Started_time":"2020-06-19","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Entertainment"],"Description":"AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is struggling to overcome the financial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic (Forbes, Variety).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2020","Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020","Not before 1 January 2021"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2021"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2020?","Started_time":"2019-11-08","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw record lows in 2019 (CNBC, Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data from Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 2.00 and 2.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.50 but less than 3.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.00","Between 2.00 and 2.50, inclusive","More than 2.50 but less than 3.00","3.00 or more"],"target":"Less than 2.00"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will a date be set for a referendum on Scotland's status within the United Kingdom?","Started_time":"2020-01-17","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"A change in Scotland's relationship with the United Kingdom is being discussed as a possible consequence of the Brexit process (BBC, Guardian). The referendum date is immaterial to the question. Whether the UK government sets or agrees to the referendum date or implements the result is immaterial to the question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Israel's Knesset pass a bill to annex and\/or apply sovereignty over any West Bank territory before 1 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-06-19","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated moving forward on promises of controversial plans of annexation, which would require Knesset support (Anadolu Agency, JPost, Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un meet before 1 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-01-17","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Negotiations between the United States and North Korea during 2019 were inconclusive, and there are efforts to restart them in 2020 (CNN,\u00a0Axios, Business Insider). For purposes of this question, the meeting must be in-person.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will Apple officially announce a ridesharing partnership with a major automaker?","Started_time":"2020-05-22","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will Cruise Automation launch a commercial ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?","Started_time":"2020-04-02","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["2020 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"General Motors' subsidiary Cruise Automation had announced intentions to launch a ride-hailing service somewhere in the U.S. in 2019; however, the service was still under development at the beginning of 2020 (GMAuthority, USA Today). While the firm recently received a permit for testing from the state of California, technical and regulatory hurdles remain (Road Show, Reuters, Electronics 360). A service that operates along a fixed route and\/or with backup drivers in the vehicles would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaid\u00f3 be detained or arrested by Venezuelan authorities before 1 January 2021?","Started_time":"2020-01-17","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Guaid\u00f3 and his allies continue to face pressure from the Maduro government, including a threat by Venezuelan prosecutors to arrest Guaid\u00f3 for \"high treason\" (Yahoo, Deutsche Welle, CBC). The duration of a detention or arrest is immaterial to the resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military or law enforcement forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?","Started_time":"2020-01-17","Closed_time":"2021-01-01","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"A lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia is becoming an issue of increasing concern (BBC, CNN, NPR, CNN). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Saudi Arabia's military forces include the General Directorate of Border Guard. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 31 December 2020, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","Started_time":"2020-08-14","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg (Bloomberg, see \"MARKET CAP\"). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2020 will be used to assess its value in dollars (Bloomberg (ARAMCO), Bloomberg (USD\/SAR)).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, the most valuable in the world":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"No, but the most valuable in the United States":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, the most valuable in the world","No, but the most valuable in the United States","No"],"target":"Yes, the most valuable in the world"}
{"Question":"How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-10-09","Closed_time":"2020-12-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The Rt is \"the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person\" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 December 2020 at https:\/\/rt.live. As of 8 October 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"24 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"Between 25 and 30":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"Between 31 and 36":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"Between 37 and 42":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"43 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["24 or fewer","Between 25 and 30","Between 31 and 36","Between 37 and 42","43 or more"],"target":"Between 31 and 36"}
{"Question":"Before 26 December 2020, will the Australian government accuse the Chinese government, by name, of being behind the \"copy-paste compromises\" cyberattacks?","Started_time":"2020-06-26","Closed_time":"2020-12-26","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will a commercial flight of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft next take off in the United States?","Started_time":"2020-10-09","Closed_time":"2020-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"After two fatal crashes in five months, regulators around the world grounded Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft in March 2019 pending further investigations (NPR). While U.S., EU, and Canadian regulators have completed test flights key for recertification, it is not known when commercial flights will resume (ABC News, CNN, FAA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 31 December 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 April 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 31 December 2020","Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021","Not before 1 April 2021"],"target":"Before 31 December 2020"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the NFC West division in the 2020 season?","Started_time":"2020-09-15","Closed_time":"2020-12-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Arizona Cardinals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Rams":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"San Francisco 49ers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Seattle Seahawks":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Another outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Arizona Cardinals","Los Angeles Rams","San Francisco 49ers","Seattle Seahawks","Another outcome"],"target":"Seattle Seahawks"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the AFC North division in the 2020 season?","Started_time":"2020-10-16","Closed_time":"2020-12-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Baltimore Ravens":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Cincinnati Bengals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Cleveland Browns":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Pittsburgh Steelers":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Another outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Baltimore Ravens","Cincinnati Bengals","Cleveland Browns","Pittsburgh Steelers","Another outcome"],"target":"Pittsburgh Steelers"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the NFC South division in the 2020 season?","Started_time":"2020-09-15","Closed_time":"2020-12-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the division standings as reported by the NFL (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Atlanta Falcons":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Carolina Panthers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New Orleans Saints":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Tampa Bay Buccaneers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Atlanta Falcons","Carolina Panthers","New Orleans Saints","Tampa Bay Buccaneers","Another outcome"],"target":"New Orleans Saints"}
{"Question":"How many seats will the New Patriotic Party win in Ghana's 2020 parliamentary elections?","Started_time":"2020-04-10","Closed_time":"2020-12-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Ghana's parliamentary elections are scheduled for late 2020, with all 275 seats up for election (Africa Center). The New Patriotic Party won 169 seats in the 2016 election, with the National Democratic Congress securing the remaining 106 (Peace FM Online).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"A majority of seats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"A plurality of seats, but not a majority":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Neither a majority nor a plurality":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Parliamentary elections in Ghana will not take place in 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["A majority of seats","A plurality of seats, but not a majority","Neither a majority nor a plurality","Parliamentary elections in Ghana will not take place in 2020"],"target":"Neither a majority nor a plurality"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 16 December 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 5 November 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-31","Closed_time":"2020-12-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its December meeting is scheduled for 15-16 December 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China before 15 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-08","Closed_time":"2020-12-15","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 14 December 2020, will the U.S. Supreme Court hear oral arguments in a case related to any state\u2019s 2020 presidential election results?","Started_time":"2020-11-06","Closed_time":"2020-12-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Following this year\u2019s presidential election, the Trump campaign has filed suit over the treatment of mail-in ballots for several states (AP, The Hill). Presidential electors are scheduled to meet and vote in their respective states on 14 December 2020 (Congressional Research Service).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the UN Security Council or UN General Assembly vote on a resolution concerning outer space before 1 May 2021?","Started_time":"2020-09-25","Closed_time":"2020-12-07","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The UN has addressed issues regarding outer space at a variety of levels over the years (UN (Outer Space), UN Office for Outer Space Affairs, UN).  China and others have different views on how to create new international law governing outer space (Diplomat, UN, Kyodo News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and China will vote for it":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"Yes, and China will abstain or be absent from voting":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, and China will vote against it":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Yes, and China will vote for it","Yes, and China will abstain or be absent from voting","Yes, and China will vote against it","No"],"target":"Yes, and China will vote for it"}
{"Question":"How many total cases of COVID-19 will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report for Canada as of 31 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-10-08","Closed_time":"2020-12-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As of 6 October 2020, PHAC reported 171,323 confirmed cases for Canada (PHAC). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC \"as of\" 31 December 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 256,985":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 256,985 and 342,646 cases, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 342,646 but fewer than 428,308 cases":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"428,308 or more cases":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 256,985","Between 256,985 and 342,646 cases, inclusive","More than 342,646 but fewer than 428,308 cases","428,308 or more cases"],"target":"428,308 or more cases"}
{"Question":"Will the Washington Football Team (fka Washington Redskins) win five or more regular season games in the 2020 NFL season?","Started_time":"2020-11-09","Closed_time":"2020-12-08","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using team record data as reported by the NFL (NFL). Ties would be counted as 1\/2 of a win (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be Airbnb's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","Started_time":"2020-08-28","Closed_time":"2020-12-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Airbnb confidentially filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for an eventual IPO (CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Airbnb goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial (Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing), Investopedia (SPACs)).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $15 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$35 billion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Airbnb will not trade publicly before 4 December 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than $15 billion","Between $15 billion and $25 billion, inclusive","More than $25 billion but less than $35 billion","$35 billion or more","Airbnb will not trade publicly before 4 December 2020"],"target":"Airbnb will not trade publicly before 4 December 2020"}
{"Question":"What will be the Estimated CO2 (carbon dioxide) Daily Global Seasonal Cycle value for 1 December 2020, according to NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory?","Started_time":"2019-12-20","Closed_time":"2020-12-01","Challenges_list":["Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"Carbon dioxide emissions were again the highest in modern times in 2019 (Scientific American, Phys.org). The outcome will be determined using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Earth System Research Laboratory data, which can be retrieved from (NOAA) by selecting the \"Estimated Global Trend daily values\" file. The relevant value will be reported in the 'cycle' column for 1 December 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 412.00 ppm":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 412.00 ppm and 414.00 ppm, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 414.00 ppm but less than 416.00 ppm":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"416.00 ppm or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 412.00 ppm","Between 412.00 ppm and 414.00 ppm, inclusive","More than 414.00 ppm but less than 416.00 ppm","416.00 ppm or more"],"target":"More than 414.00 ppm but less than 416.00 ppm"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for California's 25th Congressional District in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-04","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"When will the 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,500?","Started_time":"2020-10-09","Closed_time":"2020-11-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data provided by the NYC Department of Health's COVID-19 data page at https:\/\/www1.nyc.gov\/site\/doh\/covid\/covid-19-data.page. Under the graph for \"Daily Counts,\" select \"7-day average cases.\" The 7-day rolling average of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in NYC last reached 1,500 on 5 May 2020. This question would resolve as of the date for which 1,500 or more cases are reported irrespective of the date when that data for that date are updated. Resolution for this question will be entered no later than 7 March 2021.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 November 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 November 2020 and 30 November 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between 1 December 2020 and 31 December 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 1 January 2021 and 31 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 February 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 November 2020","Between 1 November 2020 and 30 November 2020","Between 1 December 2020 and 31 December 2020","Between 1 January 2021 and 31 January 2021","Not before 1 February 2021"],"target":"Between 1 November 2020 and 30 November 2020"}
{"Question":"Will Paulo Guedes cease to be Brazil's Minister of the Economy before 1 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-08","Closed_time":"2020-12-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 December 2020, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?","Started_time":"2020-09-15","Closed_time":"2020-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Mohammed bin Salman has continued to consolidate power in the Kingdom since becoming Crown Prince in 2017, but continues to face scrutiny over the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi (Deutsche Welle, Al Jazeera, Eurasian Times). In the past the Crown Prince has temporarily taken on the title of Vice Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques when the King has been unavailable; this would not count as ceasing to be Crown Prince.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, by becoming the King of Saudi Arabia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, without becoming the King of Saudi Arabia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, by becoming the King of Saudi Arabia","Yes, without becoming the King of Saudi Arabia","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 15 May 2020 and 30 November 2020, will any Group III U.S. air carrier file for bankruptcy?","Started_time":"2020-05-15","Closed_time":"2020-12-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 15 September 2020 and 30 November 2020, will a country cease to formally recognize Taiwan?","Started_time":"2020-09-15","Closed_time":"2020-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People\u2019s Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC (Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Two countries in Oceania, the Solomon Islands and Kiribati, were the countries to most recently cease to recognize the ROC (Newsweek).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Iraq hold parliamentary elections before 1 December 2020?","Started_time":"2019-11-15","Closed_time":"2020-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"In another attempt to quell unrest, on 9 November Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi called for a new electoral law and other reforms (Voice of America, Reuters, Al Jazeera, PMO.iq [in Arabic]).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will North Korea launch an ICBM with a length of at least 20 meters before 1 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-11-09","Closed_time":"2020-12-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"On 10 October 2020 while celebrating the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea, North Korea revealed a ballistic missile estimated to be larger than the Hwasong-15 (38 North, BBC, Arms Control Wonk). The Hwasong-15 is estimated to have a length between 21 and 22.5 meters (CSIS). For the purposes of this question, the length of a launched missile will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). If an estimated range is provided, the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. For the purposes of this question, an ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"On 29 November 2020, how many Learners will be \"already enrolled\" for the Coursera online course \u201cFinding Purpose and Meaning In Life: Living for What Matters Most?\"","Started_time":"2020-11-17","Closed_time":"2020-11-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society"],"Description":"Coursera is a massive open online course (MOOC) provider for distance learning (Coursera). The course \u201cFinding Purpose and Meaning In Life: Living for What Matters Most\u201d is offered through Coursera by the University of Michigan (Coursera - Course Website). The outcome will be determined using data provided on the course website as of approximately 5:00PM ET on 29 November 2020. As of 1 November 2020, Learners totaled 79,211. As of 16 November 2020, Learners totaled 85,057.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 87,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 87,000 and 89,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"More than 89,000 but fewer than 91,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Between 91,000 and 94,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 94,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 87,000","Between 87,000 and 89,000, inclusive","More than 89,000 but fewer than 91,000","Between 91,000 and 94,000, inclusive","More than 94,000"],"target":"Between 87,000 and 89,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many countries other than the U.S. and Brazil will have more than one million total confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of 31 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-06-19","Closed_time":"2020-11-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined based on data provided by the World Health Organization for 31 December 2020 (WHO Situation Reports, WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0 or 1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2 or 3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4, 5, or 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"7, 8, or 9":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"10 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["0 or 1","2 or 3","4, 5, or 6","7, 8, or 9","10 or more"],"target":"10 or more"}
{"Question":"Between 25 July 2020 and 25 November 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in five or more fatalities for Egyptian armed forces?","Started_time":"2020-07-24","Closed_time":"2020-11-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"On 20 July 2020, Egypt's parliament unanimously approved a troop deployment to a \"western front,\" which some have interpreted to refer to Libya (Al Jazeera, Anadolu Agency). A lethal confrontation in Libyan airspace or territorial waters would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the price of Bitcoin on 20 November 2020?","Started_time":"2020-10-15","Closed_time":"2020-11-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 20 November 2020 (PT) as reported by Coindesk (Coindesk).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $9,600.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $9,600.00 and $10,800.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $10,800.00 but less than $12,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $12,000.00 and $13,200.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $13,200.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than $9,600.00","Between $9,600.00 and $10,800.00, inclusive","More than $10,800.00 but less than $12,000.00","Between $12,000.00 and $13,200.00, inclusive","More than $13,200.00"],"target":"More than $13,200.00"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 20 November 2020?","Started_time":"2020-10-15","Closed_time":"2020-11-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $400.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $400.00 and $440.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $440.00 but less than $480.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Between $480.00 and $520.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"More than $520.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than $400.00","Between $400.00 and $440.00, inclusive","More than $440.00 but less than $480.00","Between $480.00 and $520.00, inclusive","More than $520.00"],"target":"Between $480.00 and $520.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the NASDAQ Composite Index on 20 November 2020?","Started_time":"2020-10-15","Closed_time":"2020-11-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","US Politics"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 10,600.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 10,600.00 and 11,400.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 11,400.00 but less than 12,200.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 12,200.00 and 13,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 13,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 10,600.00","Between 10,600.00 and 11,400.00, inclusive","More than 11,400.00 but less than 12,200.00","Between 12,200.00 and 13,000.00, inclusive","More than 13,000.00"],"target":"More than 11,400.00 but less than 12,200.00"}
{"Question":"Which presidential candidate will win Pennsylvania?","Started_time":"2020-05-29","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Which presidential candidate will win Wisconsin?","Started_time":"2020-06-19","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The 2020 race for the White House will be decided in battleground states (Real Clear Politics, Electoral Vote Map). The outcome will be determined based on which candidate wins the popular vote in the state.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Which presidential candidate will win Arizona?","Started_time":"2020-06-04","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"69%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Georgia's 7th Congressional District in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-04","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Michigan in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-27","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Will the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) win more total Assembly seats in Myanmar's 2020 election than it did in the 2015 election?","Started_time":"2020-07-17","Closed_time":"2020-11-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"While the National League for Democracy is expected to again win by a wide margin, the impact the USDP might make is unknown (Al Jazeera, Myanmar Times). The USDP won 41 total seats in Myanmar's bicameral Assembly of the Union in the 2015 election, 11 seats in the House of Nationalities and 30 seats in the House of Representatives (BBC). The election is scheduled for 8 November 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"No election will be held in 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes","No","No election will be held in 2020"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2020 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?","Started_time":"2020-06-05","Closed_time":"2020-11-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted that the 2020 hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2020 to 30 November 2020, will be busier than average (NOAA). The outcome will be determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"2 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"6 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"}},"choices":["2 or fewer","3","4","5","6 or more"],"target":"6 or more"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Arizona in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-01","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"While Republicans control the U.S. Senate going into the 2020 elections, the GOP is defending 23 seats while Democrats are defending only 12 this November (270 To Win, The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for New York's 11th Congressional District in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-11","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan on 13 November 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-29","Closed_time":"2020-11-13","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"CNY 6.0000 or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between CNY 6.0000 and CNY 7.0000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between CNY 7.0000 and CNY 8.0000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than CNY 8.0000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["CNY 6.0000 or less","Between CNY 6.0000 and CNY 7.0000","Between CNY 7.0000 and CNY 8.0000, inclusive","More than CNY 8.0000"],"target":"Between CNY 6.0000 and CNY 7.0000"}
{"Question":"Before 14 November 2020, will there be a lethal confrontation in Lebanon or Israel between the armed forces of Hezbollah and those of Israel?","Started_time":"2020-08-14","Closed_time":"2020-11-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Tensions between Lebanon and Israel have flared recently (Anadolu Agency, Arab News). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the forces of either side. A lethal confrontation in the airspace or territorial waters of either country would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 13 November 2020 relative to its closing value on 2 November 2020?","Started_time":"2020-10-15","Closed_time":"2020-11-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower by more than 12%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lower by between 4% and 12%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between lower by less than 4% and higher by less than 4%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Higher by between 4% and 12%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Higher by more than 12%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower by more than 12%","Lower by between 4% and 12%, inclusive","Between lower by less than 4% and higher by less than 4%","Higher by between 4% and 12%, inclusive","Higher by more than 12%"],"target":"Higher by between 4% and 12%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Texas' 24th Congressional District in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-11","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Before 11 November 2020, will Alexander Lukashenko cease to be the president of Belarus?","Started_time":"2020-08-11","Closed_time":"2020-11-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, often called \"Europe's Last Dictator,\" reported won the 9 August 2020 presidential election by a wide margin, but accusations of vote-rigging have turned to violent protests in the country (NPR, BBC, Atlantic Council).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for North Carolina in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-08","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October and 31 December 2020, will there be fewer than 2,000 deaths of COVID-19 in the Brazil?","Started_time":"2020-10-09","Closed_time":"2020-11-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The outcome of this question will be determined using data for Brazil States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 31 December 2020 (WHO COVID-19 Dashboard (Brazil)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 4,874 deaths. Deaths data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 United States presidential election?","Started_time":"2020-01-17","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Global Judgment Challenge 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday 3 November 2020 (CNN, Ballotpedia, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party nominee":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"The Republican Party nominee":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Another candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party nominee","The Republican Party nominee","Another candidate"],"target":"The Democratic Party nominee"}
{"Question":"Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2020 United States presidential election also win the electoral college?","Started_time":"2020-01-17","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Global Judgment Challenge 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"For more information on the the popular vote and the electoral college see: (Archives.gov, Ballotpedia, Archives.gov).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?","Started_time":"2020-07-01","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Which presidential candidate will win Ohio?","Started_time":"2020-05-29","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for South Carolina's 1st Congressional District in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-21","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"In its 2020 referendum, will Puerto Rico vote to become a state?","Started_time":"2020-09-25","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Currently scheduled for 3 November 2020, the non-binding referendum will ask Puerto Ricans, \"Should Puerto Rico be immediately admitted into the Union as a state?\" (Ballotpedia). Legislators in Washington, DC, are closely following the referendum (The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for October 2020?","Started_time":"2020-04-03","Closed_time":"2020-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS Release, BLS Data). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2020 and resolved when the data for October are first released, scheduled for 6 November 2020 (BLS (Schedule)). Revisions to U3 data would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.0% and 10.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 10.0% but less than 14.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 14.0% and 18.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 18.0% but less than 22.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"22.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 6.0%","Between 6.0% and 10.0%, inclusive","More than 10.0% but less than 14.0%","Between 14.0% and 18.0%, inclusive","More than 18.0% but less than 22.0%","22.0% or more"],"target":"Between 6.0% and 10.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Mississippi in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-10-16","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"While Republicans control the U.S. Senate going into the 2020 elections, the GOP is defending 23 seats while Democrats are defending only 12 this November (270 To Win, The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 5 November 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 16 September 2020?","Started_time":"2020-06-12","Closed_time":"2020-11-05","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Will California voters approve Proposition 16 (Repeal Proposition 209 Affirmative Action Amendment)?","Started_time":"2020-08-18","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"In 1996, California voters approved Proposition 209, which states that California \"shall not discriminate against, or grant preferential treatment to, any individual or group on the basis of race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin in the operation of public employment, public education, or public contracting\" (California Legislature). The California state legislature referred the question of its repeal (Ballotpedia, California Legislature, Spectrum News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will California voters approve Proposition 22 (App-Based Drivers as Contractors and Labor Policies Initiative)?","Started_time":"2020-08-18","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","2020 Vehicle Innovations Challenge","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"After California passed a law creating a new test to for determining whether workers can be classified as independent contractors, firms like Uber and Lyft are supporting Proposition 22 on the state ballot this November (The Hill, Daily Californian, CA Office of Attorney General). Proposition 22 would change the law to consider app-based drivers to be independent contractors (Ballotpedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which presidential candidate will win Florida?","Started_time":"2020-06-04","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Which presidential candidate will win Texas?","Started_time":"2020-08-04","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Illinois' 13th Congressional District in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-11","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-11","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Kansas in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-21","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"While Republicans control the U.S. Senate going into the 2020 elections, the GOP is defending 23 seats while Democrats are defending only 12 this November (270 To Win, The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for South Carolina in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-21","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"While Republicans control the U.S. Senate going into the 2020 elections, the GOP is defending 23 seats while Democrats are defending only 12 this November (270 To Win, The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Iowa in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-04","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-21","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the election for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-04","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are up for election this November, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the House in the 2018 midterm elections (270 To Win, Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Montana in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-27","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Will Colorado voters approve Proposition 113 (Colorado National Popular Vote Interstate Compact Referendum)?","Started_time":"2020-08-18","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"After a bill joining Colorado to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC), which would require that the state's presidential electors vote for whichever candidate wins the popular vote in a presidential election, opponents successfully petitioned to put a veto referendum on the ballot (Ballotpedia, National Popular Vote, Colorado Politics). A \"yes\" vote is a vote to join the NPVIC.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Missouri in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-16","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are seven Republican-held and four Democratic-held gubernatorial seats up for election in 2020 (Ballotpedia, US News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of New Hampshire in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-16","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are seven Republican-held and four Democratic-held gubernatorial seats up for election in 2020 (Ballotpedia,\u00a0US News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Montana in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-16","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are seven Republican-held and four Democratic-held gubernatorial seats up for election in 2020 (Ballotpedia,\u00a0US News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of North Carolina in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-16","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"There are seven Republican-held and four Democratic-held gubernatorial seats up for election in 2020 (Ballotpedia,\u00a0US News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Maine in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-08","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Republican Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Who will win the U.S. Senate election for Colorado in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-01","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Democratic Party candidate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"The Republican Party candidate":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Democratic Party candidate","The Republican Party candidate","Someone else"],"target":"The Democratic Party candidate"}
{"Question":"Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $5 billion in new direct financial assistance to the United States Postal Service (USPS) become law?","Started_time":"2020-08-28","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"As many states look to mail-in ballots to mitigate COVID-19 risks in November, the USPS has become a hot-button political issue in this election cycle (AP, NPR). House Democrats have twice passed legislation to bail out the USPS, with the Senate looking at other options (Cnet). For the purposes of this question, loans would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation curtailing or eliminating qualified immunity for public officials become law?","Started_time":"2020-06-12","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In how many states will Kanye West appear on the ballot for the 2020 presidential election?","Started_time":"2020-08-07","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"On 4 July 2020, rapper Kanye West announced that he was running for president (ABC News). Since then, West has been racing to meet filing deadlines in various states in order to appear on the ballot (Newsweek, Forbes). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. Whether West ceases to be a candidate before election day is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"8 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 9 and 16":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 17 and 24":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 24":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["8 or fewer","Between 9 and 16","Between 17 and 24","More than 24"],"target":"Between 9 and 16"}
{"Question":"Before 3 November 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and\/or local governments become law?","Started_time":"2020-07-10","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Health","Economic Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"In March 2020, the CARES Act was passed to provide funding to corporations and small businesses via the Paycheck Protection Program and to private citizens in the form of stimulus payments, among other financial initiatives (Treasury.gov, National Conference of State Legislatures). As the COVID-19 crisis continues, state and local governments are under stress, and proposals have been made for federal assistance (Pew Charitable Trusts, The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the EU add the U.S. to its list of countries for which member states should gradually lift travel restrictions?","Started_time":"2020-07-31","Closed_time":"2020-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"Every two weeks the EU is reviewing and updating, based on certain epidemiological criteria, the list of countries whose residents should not be affected by temporary external border restrictions on non-essential travel into the EU (Europa.eu, Europa.eu [see Annex I], USA Today). The question would close on the date the U.S. is added, irrespective of the date it would take effect.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 September 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 September and 30 September 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October and 31 October 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 November 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 September 2020","Between 1 September and 30 September 2020","Between 1 October and 31 October 2020","Not before 1 November 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 November 2020"}
{"Question":"How many presidential candidate debates between the Democratic and Republican nominees will take place before the 2020 general election?","Started_time":"2020-08-07","Closed_time":"2020-11-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Health","US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Republican and Democratic presidential nominees are tentatively scheduled to participate in three debates, the first planned for 29 September 2020 (Debates.org, BBC, Newsweek). Virtual debates would count so long as they are televised in real time and the candidates are able to address each other.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"3 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3 or more"],"target":"2"}
{"Question":"When will Microsoft announce a deal for its acquisition of TikTok in the U.S.?","Started_time":"2020-08-07","Closed_time":"2020-11-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","US Policy"],"Description":"The social media app TikTok has come under scrutiny as a potential security risk due to potential Chinese government influence (CNN, ABC (Australia)). Microsoft has said that it is in discussions with TikTok parent ByteDance to own and operate the app in the United States and other markets (Reuters, Microsoft, CNBC). Microsoft need not be the sole acquirer in a deal to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 16 September 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 September 2020 and 31 October 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 November 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 16 September 2020","Between 16 September 2020 and 31 October 2020","Not before 1 November 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 November 2020"}
{"Question":"Will a World Series decide an MLB Champion in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-07","Closed_time":"2020-10-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Sports"],"Description":"Major League Baseball (MLB) restarted its season in late July with protocols in place to cope with COVID-19, but new outbreaks among players have put the abbreviated season in jeopardy (ESPN, CBS Sports). If MLB declares the season ended without a World Series deciding a champion, the question would close \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?","Started_time":"2020-01-17","Closed_time":"2020-10-27","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"As the 2020 presidential election approaches, a Supreme Court vacancy would be an important political development (CNN, National Review, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 1 January 2021":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 1 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 1 January 2021","Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 1 January 2021","No"],"target":"Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 1 January 2021"}
{"Question":"When will the U.S. Senate confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court?","Started_time":"2020-09-28","Closed_time":"2020-10-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"In the wake of the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and amid the final weeks of the 2020 presidential election campaign, President Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court amid backlash from Senate Democrats (NPR, Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 3 November 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 3 November 2020 and 4 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 5 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 3 November 2020","Between 3 November 2020 and 4 January 2021","Not before 5 January 2021"],"target":"Before 3 November 2020"}
{"Question":"Before 5 January 2021, will Vice President Mike Pence cast a tie-breaking vote in the Senate confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court?","Started_time":"2020-10-02","Closed_time":"2020-10-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2021","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"With an already closely-divided Senate and reluctance by some GOP Senators to vote on a replacement for Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the November election, there's a chance that Vice President Pence would be called upon to break a tie in Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation vote (NBC News, NY Post, CBS News). The question would close upon a final Senate vote on Barrett's confirmation.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Bolivian presidential election?","Started_time":"2020-07-17","Closed_time":"2020-10-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After the controversial re-election and subsequent resignation of leftist president Evo Morales in late 2019, a special general election had been scheduled for 3 May 2020 but was later postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic (France24, Americas Quarterly, AS\/COA). Interim president Jeanine \u00c1\u00f1ez signed off on the new date, with the first round of voting scheduled for 6 September 2020 and a runoff scheduled for 18 October 2020 if needed\u00a0 (P\u00e1gina Siete\u00a0[in Spanish]).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jeanine \u00c1\u00f1ez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Luis Arce":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Carlos Mesa":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No election will be held in 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Jeanine \u00c1\u00f1ez","Luis Arce","Carlos Mesa","Someone else","No election will be held in 2020"],"target":"Luis Arce"}
{"Question":"Which U.S. presidential candidate will have raised the most campaign money as of 30 September 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-07","Closed_time":"2020-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The 2020 presidential campaign is shaping up to be the most expensive in U.S. history (Reuters). The major party candidate totals were neck-and-neck as of the end of June 2020, with Biden and supporters with $410 million versus Trump and supporters with $416 million (Opensecrets.org (Biden), Opensecrets.org (Trump)). The outcome will be determined using \"Total Raised\" data for each candidate provided by the Center for Responsive Politics after the final pre-election quarterly reports are published per deadlines set by the Federal Election Commission (Federal Election Commission).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden (D)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Donald Trump (R)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden (D)","Donald Trump (R)","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden (D)"}
{"Question":"When will opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya return to Belarus?","Started_time":"2020-08-21","Closed_time":"2020-10-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya fled Belarus shortly after a presidential election marred by rigging accusations (NPR, Kyiv Post, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 4 September 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4 September and 16 October 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 17 October 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 4 September 2020","Between 4 September and 16 October 2020","Not before 17 October 2020"],"target":"Not before 17 October 2020"}
{"Question":"Between 7 July 2020 and the end of the season, how many NBA players residing at the Walt Disney World complex will test positive for COVID-19, according to the NBA?","Started_time":"2020-07-03","Closed_time":"2020-10-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","NBA\u00ae Season Restart"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Sports"],"Description":"Several National Basketball Association (NBA) players have tested positive for COVID-19 just as the league is looking to restart the 2019-20 season at the Walt Disney World complex (Wall Street Journal, Slam Online, Wall Street Journal). For purposes of this question, a test indicating a past infection will not count for resolution (CDC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 and 7":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 8 and 14":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15 and 21":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"22 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","Between 1 and 7","Between 8 and 14","Between 15 and 21","22 or more"],"target":"Between 1 and 7"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2020 NBA Finals?","Started_time":"2020-08-20","Closed_time":"2020-10-12","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Boston Celtics":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Denver Nuggets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Houston Rockets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Indiana Pacers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Clippers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Lakers":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Milwaukee Bucks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Toronto Raptors":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"There will be no 2020 NBA Finals winner":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Boston Celtics","Denver Nuggets","Houston Rockets","Indiana Pacers","Los Angeles Clippers","Los Angeles Lakers","Milwaukee Bucks","Toronto Raptors","Another team","There will be no 2020 NBA Finals winner"],"target":"Los Angeles Lakers"}
{"Question":"Will an NBA Finals series decide a 2020 NBA Champion before 15 October 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-03","Closed_time":"2020-10-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","NBA\u00ae Season Restart"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Sports"],"Description":"The National Basketball Association (NBA), which announced the suspension of the 2019-20 season on 11 March 2020 due to COVID-19, is planning to restart in late July 2020 (Wall Street Journal, NBA). The Finals are scheduled to end no later than 13 October 2020 as of the launch of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will hospitalizations for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in New York City (NYC) next reach or exceed 1,000 in a single day?","Started_time":"2020-06-12","Closed_time":"2020-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 August 2020 and 31 August 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 September 2020 and 30 September 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 October 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 July 2020","Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020","Between 1 August 2020 and 31 August 2020","Between 1 September 2020 and 30 September 2020","Not before 1 October 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 October 2020"}
{"Question":"For any seven consecutive day period between 1 October and 31 December 2020, will there be 200,000 or more combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","Started_time":"2020-04-17","Closed_time":"2020-10-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The status of the COVID-19 outbreak during late 2020 is an open question as experts look into the possible \"next waves\" (Forbes, Lancet). The outcome will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) between 1 October and 31 December 2020 (WHO). For the seven consecutive day period from 1 April 2020 and 7 April 2020, WHO reported 193,171 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 1 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will ten or more of the remaining games in the 2019-2020 NBA season be canceled?","Started_time":"2020-07-03","Closed_time":"2020-09-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","NBA\u00ae Season Restart"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Sports"],"Description":"The National Basketball Association (NBA), which announced the suspension of the 2019-20 season on 11 March 2020 due to COVID-19, is planning to restart on 30 July 2020 (NBA, Wall Street Journal).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will be the number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the state of Texas for a single day next be 2,500 or lower?","Started_time":"2020-07-14","Closed_time":"2020-10-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"Texas has seen a major increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations since mid-June 2020, with Gov. Greg Abbott warning that the state may have to institute a lockdown to address the jump (CBS News, KXAN). The outcome will be determined using data provided on the Texas Department of State Health Services' COVID-19 Test and Hospital data page (TX Dept. of State Health Services). At the bottom of the page, click the \"Hospitals - Statewide\" tab. Hover your cursor over a column for a date for the exact figure. COVID-19 hospitalizations in Texas on 11 July 2020 were 10,083.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 3 August 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3 August 2020 and 23 August 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 24 August 2020 and 13 September 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 14 September 2020 and 4 October 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 4 October 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 3 August 2020","Between 3 August 2020 and 23 August 2020","Between 24 August 2020 and 13 September 2020","Between 14 September 2020 and 4 October 2020","Not before 4 October 2020"],"target":"Not before 4 October 2020"}
{"Question":"How many states will have reported more total COVID-19 cases for September 2020 than for June 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-04","Closed_time":"2020-09-29","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4 and 11":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12 and 19":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 20 and 27":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 28 and 35":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 36 and 43":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"44 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 4","Between 4 and 11","Between 12 and 19","Between 20 and 27","Between 28 and 35","Between 36 and 43","44 or more"],"target":"44 or more"}
{"Question":"Between 19 June 2020 and 30 September 2020, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China?","Started_time":"2020-06-19","Closed_time":"2020-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"A violent clash in mid-June 2020 between soldiers along a disputed stretch of border between India and China left at least 20 dead, sparking concerns over a further escalation of tensions between the two neighbors (Economist, BBC, CNN). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement of either side.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many active California fires with 10,000 or more acres burned will be reported by the LA Times' California Fire Map as of 1 October 2020?","Started_time":"2020-09-04","Closed_time":"2020-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Environment"],"Description":"California has already experienced record-setting wildfires in 2020 and more could be on the way (Guardian, Mercury News, NY Times). The outcome will be determined using the LA Times' California Fire Map as of 5:00PM ET on 1 October 2020 (LA Times, left side). As of 1 September there are 14 fires with 10,000 or more acres burned.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"4 or more"}
{"Question":"When will a new tax framework for multinational tech companies be submitted by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)?","Started_time":"2019-12-06","Closed_time":"2020-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The OECD has been working for years to seek modernization of the international tax system to, among other things, deal with tax avoidance by large multinational tech companies (Economist, Financial Times, OECD BEPS). The next step would be submission of a plan to the Inclusive Framework, a group of countries working together on international tax reform (OECD Programme of Work, OECD Inclusive Framework).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 October 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 May 2020","Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020","Not before 1 October 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 October 2020"}
{"Question":"How many total deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Brazil as of 1 October 2020?","Started_time":"2020-06-26","Closed_time":"2020-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 90,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 90,000 and 120,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 120,000 but fewer than 150,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 150,000 and 180,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 180,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 90,000","Between 90,000 and 120,000, inclusive","More than 120,000 but fewer than 150,000","Between 150,000 and 180,000, inclusive","More than 180,000"],"target":"More than 120,000 but fewer than 150,000"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 30 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 30 June 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-01","Closed_time":"2020-09-30","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down more than 15.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Up more than 15.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Down more than 15.0%","Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive","Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0%","Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive","Up more than 15.0%"],"target":"Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will China's Three Gorges Dam fail before 1 October 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-22","Closed_time":"2020-10-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Recent flooding has devastated large areas of China, drawing attention to the safety and efficacy of the massive Three Gorges Dam (Economist, The Interpreter, Reuters). For the purposes of this question, a failure would be the actual \"sudden, rapid, and uncontrolled release of impounded water\" (U.S. Forest Service).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Telegram\u2019s digital currency, Gram, launch for the public?","Started_time":"2019-12-06","Closed_time":"2020-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The Internet messaging service Telegraph delayed plans to launch a digital currency, Gram, from October 2019 to April 2020 (Economist, Finance Magnates, Crypto News, NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 October 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 May 2020","Between 1 May 2020 and 30 September 2020","Not before 1 October 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 October 2020"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2020, will North Korea announce that it has a new head of state?","Started_time":"2020-05-01","Closed_time":"2020-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the team winning the 2020 National Basketball Association championship be a first-time champion?","Started_time":"2020-02-07","Closed_time":"2020-09-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","NBA\u00ae Season Restart"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"As of the start of the 2019-2020, eleven NBA franchises have never won a championship: Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Orlando Magic, Phoenix Suns, and the Utah Jazz (NBA). The NBA finals are scheduled to begin on 4 June 2020 (NBA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many MLB players will have a regular season batting average of .400 or higher in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-11","Closed_time":"2020-09-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"No Major League Baseball player has had a .400 batting average for a season since Ted Williams in 1941 (Baseball Almanac). How the shortened season will affect major performance numbers like batting average remains to be seen (Call to the Pen). The outcome will be determine using batting average data from ESPN (ESPN). A player must have at least 3.1 plate appearances per team game to count (MLB, see Rule 9.22).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 22 September 2020 relative to its closing value on 28 August 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-28","Closed_time":"2020-09-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The S&P 500 Index closed at 3,508.01 on 28 August 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down more than 12.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Down between 4.0% and 12.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between down less than 4.0% and up less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Up between 4.0% and 12.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Up more than 12.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Down more than 12.0%","Down between 4.0% and 12.0%, inclusive","Between down less than 4.0% and up less than 4.0%","Up between 4.0% and 12.0%, inclusive","Up more than 12.0%"],"target":"Down between 4.0% and 12.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 22 September 2020, according to Bloomberg?","Started_time":"2020-08-28","Closed_time":"2020-09-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $25.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $35.00 but less than $45.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $55.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $25.00","Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive","More than $35.00 but less than $45.00","Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive","More than $55.00"],"target":"More than $35.00 but less than $45.00"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 22 September 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-28","Closed_time":"2020-09-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The outcome will  be determined using data from CNBC (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.200%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.200% and 1.400%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than 1.400% but less than 1.600%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"Between 1.600% and 1.800%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.800%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.200%","Between 1.200% and 1.400%, inclusive","More than 1.400% but less than 1.600%","Between 1.600% and 1.800%, inclusive","More than 1.800%"],"target":"More than 1.400% but less than 1.600%"}
{"Question":"Before 22 September 2020, will federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and\/or local governments become law?","Started_time":"2020-08-28","Closed_time":"2020-09-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Health","Economic Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"In March 2020, the CARES Act was passed to provide funding to corporations and small businesses via the Paycheck Protection Program and to private citizens in the form of stimulus payments, among other financial initiatives (Treasury.gov, National Conference of State Legislatures). As the COVID-19 crisis continues, state and local governments are under stress, and proposals have been made for federal assistance (Pew Charitable Trusts, The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price of Tesla stock on 22 September 2020?","Started_time":"2020-08-29","Closed_time":"2020-09-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $400.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $400.00 and $450.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"More than $450.00 but less than $500.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Between $500.00 and $550.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $550.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $400.00","Between $400.00 and $450.00, inclusive","More than $450.00 but less than $500.00","Between $500.00 and $550.00, inclusive","More than $550.00"],"target":"Between $400.00 and $450.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the total domestic box office gross for Tenet as of 8 September 2020, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2020-05-08","Closed_time":"2020-09-08","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1 million and $80 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than $80 million but less than $160 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $160 million and $240 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $240 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $1 million","Between $1 million and $80 million, inclusive","More than $80 million but less than $160 million","Between $160 million and $240 million, inclusive","More than $240 million"],"target":"Between $1 million and $80 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2020, will there be a period of at least 14 consecutive days without a new reported case of COVID-19 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)?","Started_time":"2020-05-21","Closed_time":"2020-09-17","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?","Started_time":"2020-08-20","Closed_time":"2020-09-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","NBA\u00ae Season Restart"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Sports"],"Description":"On 8 August 2020 the NBA announced the award finalists, who were selected based on games up to the season's suspension on 11 March 2020 (NBA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"James Harden, Houston Rockets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"}},"choices":["Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks","James Harden, Houston Rockets","LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers"],"target":"Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 16 September 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 July 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-01","Closed_time":"2020-09-16","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Before 15 November 2020, who will be elected to be the next leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)?","Started_time":"2020-08-28","Closed_time":"2020-09-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Japanese Prime Minister and LDP President Shinzo Abe announced his resignation due to health reason, which will trigger an election to select the next leader of the party (Reuters, South China Morning Post, Al Jazeera).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Taro Aso":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Shigeru Ishiba":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Fumio Kishida":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Taro Kono":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yoshihide Suga":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Taro Aso","Shigeru Ishiba","Fumio Kishida","Taro Kono","Yoshihide Suga","Someone else"],"target":"Yoshihide Suga"}
{"Question":"On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 positivity rate greater than 10.0%?","Started_time":"2020-07-02","Closed_time":"2020-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined using data provided in the chart \u201cHow is My State Doing on Key Measures?\u201d under \"COVID+ RATE IS\" found at https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 September 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"5 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6 and 10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11 and 15":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 16 and 20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"21 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["5 or fewer","Between 6 and 10","Between 11 and 15","Between 16 and 20","21 or more"],"target":"Between 11 and 15"}
{"Question":"What will be the total domestic box office gross for Disney\u2019s Mulan as of 8 September 2020, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2020-05-01","Closed_time":"2020-09-08","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between $1 million and $70 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $70 million but less than $140 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $140 million and $210 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $210 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $1 million","Between $1 million and $70 million, inclusive","More than $70 million but less than $140 million","Between $140 million and $210 million, inclusive","More than $210 million"],"target":"Less than $1 million"}
{"Question":"For between 8 July 2020 and 7 August 2020, how many fatalities related to political violence and protest events will ACLED record in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2020-07-07","Closed_time":"2020-08-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The murder of Hachalu Hundessa, a popular singer from Ethiopia's Oromia region, has triggered violence across much of the country (Economist, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) at acleddata.com. On the page, set the \"From\" field to 8 July 2020, the \"To\" field to 7 August 2020, the \"Country\" field to \"Ethiopia\" (the remaining fields left at \"All\") and click \"Export.\"\u00a0 The total of the numbers under \"fatalities\" in the exported file will be retrieved at 5:00PM ET on 14 August 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 100":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 100 and 500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 501 and 1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,001 and 3,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 100","Between 100 and 500","Between 501 and 1,000","Between 1,001 and 3,000","More than 3,000"],"target":"Fewer than 100"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 NBA Rookie of the Year Award?","Started_time":"2020-08-20","Closed_time":"2020-09-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","NBA\u00ae Season Restart"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Sports"],"Description":"On 8 August 2020 the NBA announced the award finalists, who were selected based on games up to the season's suspension on 11 March 2020 (NBA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Kendrick Nunn, Miami Heat":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies","Kendrick Nunn, Miami Heat","Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans"],"target":"Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies"}
{"Question":"On 1 September 2020, how many states will report a COVID-19 fatality rate of 5.0% or higher?","Started_time":"2020-07-02","Closed_time":"2020-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined based on the data provided in the chart \u201cCan Our Health System Handle the Spread?\u201d under \"CASE FATALITY RATE\" found at https:\/\/www.covidexitstrategy.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 September 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"6 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7 and 12":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 13 and 18":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 19 and 24":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"25 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["6 or fewer","Between 7 and 12","Between 13 and 18","Between 19 and 24","25 or more"],"target":"Between 7 and 12"}
{"Question":"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","Started_time":"2020-04-03","Closed_time":"2020-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health"],"Description":"The number of people traveling by commercial plane has dropped dramatically since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic (WTKR). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened at least two million travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 August 2020 and 31 August 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 September 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 June 2020","Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020","Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020","Between 1 August 2020 and 31 August 2020","Not before 1 September 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 September 2020"}
{"Question":"Before 1 September 2020, will Cameroon's Paul Biya and\/or Togo's Faure Gnassingb\u00e9 cease to be the president of their respective countries?","Started_time":"2020-01-31","Closed_time":"2020-09-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Long-seated African leaders like Cameroon's President Paul Biya and Togo's President Faure Gnassingb\u00e9 could see their political fates tested in 2020 (Economist).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only President Paul Biya":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only President Faure Gnassingb\u00e9":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, only President Paul Biya","Yes, only President Faure Gnassingb\u00e9","Yes, both","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-02","Closed_time":"2020-08-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The Rt is \"the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person\" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 August 2020 at https:\/\/rt.live. As of 2 July 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"24 or fewer":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 25 and 30":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 31 and 36":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 37 and 42":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"43 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["24 or fewer","Between 25 and 30","Between 31 and 36","Between 37 and 42","43 or more"],"target":"24 or fewer"}
{"Question":"Before 29 August 2020, will the German Bundesbank be barred from participating in the European Central Bank's (ECB's) PSPP quantitative easing program?","Started_time":"2020-06-05","Closed_time":"2020-08-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In early May 2020, Germany's top court ruled that the Bundesbank must stop buying government bonds under the ECB's Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) and gave the ECB three months to make changes, otherwise the bank would be barred from further participation (Economist, Reuters, German Federal Constitutional Court). A partial bar would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which soccer\/football club will win the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League?","Started_time":"2019-10-22","Closed_time":"2020-08-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 2019\u201320 Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Champions League final game is scheduled to be played on 30 May 2020 (UEFA, FiveThirtyEight).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ajax":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Atl\u00e9tico de Madrid":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Barcelona":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bayern Munich":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"Chelsea":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Dortmund":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Juventus":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Liverpool":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Manchester City":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Paris Saint-Germain":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"Real Madrid":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another soccer\/football club":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Ajax","Atl\u00e9tico de Madrid","Barcelona","Bayern Munich","Chelsea","Dortmund","Juventus","Liverpool","Manchester City","Paris Saint-Germain","Real Madrid","Another soccer\/football club"],"target":"Bayern Munich"}
{"Question":"Between 15 November 2019 and 21 August 2020, will the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) attribute a cross-market trading halt to a cyberattack?","Started_time":"2019-11-15","Closed_time":"2020-08-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"The NYSE will trigger a trading halt under certain conditions, including market declines of specific magnitudes (NYSE). The trading halt and attribution must both take place during the period of interest.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 20 August 2020?","Started_time":"2020-06-19","Closed_time":"2020-08-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"A mid-June cluster of new COVID-19 cases in Beijing has sparked concerns over a new wave of infections in China (CNN). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 August 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO Situation Reports, WHO). As of 18 June 2020, WHO reported a total of 84,903 confirmed cases.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 86,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 86,000 and 88,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 88,000 but less than 92,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 92,000 and 100,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 86,000","Between 86,000 and 88,000, inclusive","More than 88,000 but less than 92,000","Between 92,000 and 100,000, inclusive","More than 100,000"],"target":"More than 88,000 but less than 92,000"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project ). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project  for examples. See\u00a0GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project) for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (https:\/\/www.earlywarningproject.org). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See\u00a0GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See\u00a0GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project\u00a0for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project ). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See\u00a0GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project  for examples. See\u00a0GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project ). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project  for examples. See\u00a0GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive ). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-29","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project) for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project ). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project  for examples. See\u00a0GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-29","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project) for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 June 2020, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2019-07-01","Closed_time":"2019-09-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (EWP Archive). It will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and will be resolved in July 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from July 2019 to June 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project\u00a0for examples. See GJ's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee select as a running mate?","Started_time":"2020-04-03","Closed_time":"2020-08-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"In the March Democratic debate, candidate Joe Biden \"committed\" to picking a woman running mate, while Bernie Sanders said that he would \"in all likelihood\" do the same (CNN). The outcome will be determined based on the person formally nominated by the Democratic Party as its vice presidential candidate.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Stacey Abrams":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tammy Duckworth":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Kamala Harris":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Gretchen Whitmer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another woman":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else not a woman":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Stacey Abrams","Tammy Duckworth","Kamala Harris","Amy Klobuchar","Elizabeth Warren","Gretchen Whitmer","Another woman","Someone else not a woman"],"target":"Kamala Harris"}
{"Question":"Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee for U.S. president?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-08-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The 2020 Democratic National Convention is scheduled for 13-16 July 2020 (Ballotpedia, 270 To Win).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone Else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone Else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Will the Democratic Party nominate their presidential candidate on the first ballot of the presidential roll call at the 2020 Democratic National Convention?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-08-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Talk of a \u201cbrokered\u201d Democratic convention, where multiple ballots at the convention are necessary to select the presidential nominee, has been rising after rule changes and close results in Iowa and New Hampshire (CNN, Five Thirty Eight). The 2020 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to be held 13-16 July 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (Demconvention.com,\u00a0Democrats.org).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will F\u00e9lix Tshisekedi cease to be president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo before 15 August 2020?","Started_time":"2020-01-17","Closed_time":"2020-08-15","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"F\u00e9lix Tshisekedi was inaugurated in January 2020 amid claims of election rigging and a secret power-sharing deal with outgoing President Kabila (Economist, The Africa Report,\u00a0Washington Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 13 August 2020, according to Bloomberg?","Started_time":"2020-03-10","Closed_time":"2020-08-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Amid the COVID-19 outbreak spreading around the world and fears of a price war between Russia and OPEC members, oil prices saw their largest single day percentage drop since 1991 (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $25.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $35.00 but less than $45.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than $55.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $25.00","Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive","More than $35.00 but less than $45.00","Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive","More than $55.00"],"target":"More than $35.00 but less than $45.00"}
{"Question":"Will the Swedish Scholastic Aptitude Test (SweSAT) scheduled for 18 October 2020 be canceled or postponed?","Started_time":"2020-05-29","Closed_time":"2020-08-07","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will available Adult Intensive Care Unit (ICU) bed capacity in Arizona fall below 5.0%?","Started_time":"2020-06-12","Closed_time":"2020-08-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"Arizona has seen a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations since the state stay-at-home order expired 15 May 2020 (12News, AZ Big Media). The outcome will be determined using data provided on the Arizona Department of Health Services' Data Dashboard (COVID-19 Data Dashboard). Click the \"Hospital Bed Usage & Availability\" icon to bring up the relevant chart, making sure that the \"ICU Bed Usage & Availability\" tab is selected. The data for each date are broken into two segments (\"Available\" and \"In Use\"), which will be displayed by hovering your cursor over the relevant segment. For 1 June 2020, there were 1,253 beds in use and 419 beds available, which put available bed capacity at 25.1%. Percentages shown of the site will not be used for resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 26 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 26 June 2020 and 9 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 10 July 2020 and 23 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 24 July 2020 and 6 August 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 7 August 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 26 June 2020","Between 26 June 2020 and 9 July 2020","Between 10 July 2020 and 23 July 2020","Between 24 July 2020 and 6 August 2020","Not before 7 August 2020"],"target":"Not before 7 August 2020"}
{"Question":"What will be Rocket Companies' end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering (IPO)?","Started_time":"2020-07-31","Closed_time":"2020-08-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"On 11 June 2020, CNBC reported that mortgage lender Quicken Loans had confidentially filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for an eventual IPO (CNBC, The Street). The IPO for the company, being rebranded as Rocket Companies, is expected in early August (Barron's). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day Market Capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $35 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"$55 billion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Quicken Loans will not have an IPO before 31 October 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $35 billion","Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive","More than $45 billion but less than $55 billion","$55 billion or more","Quicken Loans will not have an IPO before 31 October 2020"],"target":"Between $35 billion and $45 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will President Trump's approval rating be lower on 5 August 2020 than it was on 1 July 2020, according to FiveThirtyEight?","Started_time":"2020-07-07","Closed_time":"2020-08-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using \"All polls\" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's \"How Popular Is Donald Trump\" page (FiveThirtyEight). On 1 July 2020, Trump's approval rating was 40.5%.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing stock price of Chevron on 5 August 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-08","Closed_time":"2020-08-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"The oil & gas firm\u2019s next quarterly earnings release is expected in late July\/early August. The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Chevron stock was $86.31.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $75.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $75.00 and $83.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $83.00 but less than $91.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between $91.00 and $99.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $99.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $75.00","Between $75.00 and $83.00, inclusive","More than $83.00 but less than $91.00","Between $91.00 and $99.00, inclusive","More than $99.00"],"target":"More than $83.00 but less than $91.00"}
{"Question":"Will the closing price of Chevron stock be higher on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-08","Closed_time":"2020-08-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"The oil & gas firm\u2019s next quarterly earnings release is expected in late July\/early August. The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Chevron stock was $86.31.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing stock price of Facebook on 5 August 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-08","Closed_time":"2020-08-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"The social media giant\u2019s next quarterly earnings release is scheduled for 29 July 2020 amid an advertiser boycott that began in June over hate speech monitoring on the site (Facebook, Politico). The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Facebook stock was $240.86.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $200.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $200.00 and $230.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $230.00 but less than $260.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between $260.00 and $290.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $290.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $200.00","Between $200.00 and $230.00, inclusive","More than $230.00 but less than $260.00","Between $260.00 and $290.00, inclusive","More than $290.00"],"target":"More than $230.00 but less than $260.00"}
{"Question":"Will the closing price of Facebook stock be higher on 5 August 2020 than it was on 7 July 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-08","Closed_time":"2020-08-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"The social media giant\u2019s next quarterly earnings release is scheduled for 29 July 2020 amid an advertiser boycott that began in June over hate speech monitoring on the site (Facebook, Politico). The outcome will be determined using the closing price on 5 August 2020 as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). On 7 July 2020 the closing price of Facebook stock was $240.86.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 5 August 2020, will Mark Esper cease to be the U.S. Secretary of Defense?","Started_time":"2020-06-05","Closed_time":"2020-08-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"Defense Secretary Esper's future in the Trump Administration is in question after developments related to protests in the wake of the death of George Floyd (Economist, Defense News, Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the FA Cup be decided with a penalty shootout?","Started_time":"2020-07-24","Closed_time":"2020-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The FA Cup is \"the most famous domestic cup competition in the world\" (BBC, The FA). The soccer\/football final is scheduled for 1 August 2020 in the UK between Arsenal F.C. and Chelsea F.C.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the FA Cup?","Started_time":"2020-07-24","Closed_time":"2020-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The FA Cup, a soccer\/football final scheduled for 1 August 2020 in the UK, is \"the most famous domestic cup competition in the world\" (BBC, The FA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Arsenal F.C.":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"Chelsea F.C.":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"}},"choices":["Arsenal F.C.","Chelsea F.C."],"target":"Arsenal F.C."}
{"Question":"Will the federal emergency increase in unemployment compensation benefits be extended before 1 August 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-14","Closed_time":"2020-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","US Election 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Health","Economic Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"On 27 March 2020, President Trump signed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, which, among other things, provided for $600 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits (Dept. of Labor, Congress.gov (CARES Act)). The benefit is scheduled to end on 31 July 2020, and some are pushing for its extension (CNBC, Forbes,\u00a0Bloomberg). If the increase in unemployment compensation benefits is extended by a formula other than a flat number, the outcome of this question will be determined based on the highest amount for which a single unemployed person would be eligible.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, at $600 or more per week":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, at less than $600 per week":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, at $600 or more per week","Yes, at less than $600 per week","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasurys next invert?","Started_time":"2020-02-28","Closed_time":"2020-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, CNBC, Market Watch). The outcome will be determined using Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate data provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury by comparing the value in the \"2 Yr\" column with the value in the \"10 Yr\" column for each day (Treasury.gov).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 15 March 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15 March 2020 and 30 April 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2020 and 15 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 June 2020 and 31 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 August 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 15 March 2020","Between 15 March 2020 and 30 April 2020","Between 1 May 2020 and 15 June 2020","Between 16 June 2020 and 31 July 2020","Not before 1 August 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 August 2020"}
{"Question":"Will the 2019-20 NBA season resume on 30 July 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-03","Closed_time":"2020-07-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","NBA\u00ae Season Restart"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Sports"],"Description":"The National Basketball Association (NBA), which announced the suspension of the 2019-20 season on 11 March 2020 due to COVID-19, is planning to restart on 30 July 2020 (NBA, Wall Street Journal).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many total cases of COVID-19 will be reported in Orange County, Florida, as of 30 July 2020?","Started_time":"2020-07-03","Closed_time":"2020-07-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","NBA\u00ae Season Restart"],"Tags_list":["Health","Sports"],"Description":"As part of the National Basketball Association's (NBA's) plan to finish the current season, all games will be played at the Disney World campus in Orange County, Florida (Wall Street Journal). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by the Florida Department of Health as of 30 July 2020 at 5:00PM ET (Florida Department of Health). Zoom in and click the county on the map that reads \"Orlando.\" In the pop-up window titled \"CASE DATA FOR ORANGE,\" the data can be found on the first line, \"Total Cases.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 15,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15,000 and 20,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 20,000 but fewer than 25,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 30,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 15,000","Between 15,000 and 20,000, inclusive","More than 20,000 but fewer than 25,000","Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive","More than 30,000"],"target":"Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 29 July 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 10 June 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-20","Closed_time":"2020-07-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its July meeting is scheduled for 28-29 July 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Before 28 July 2020, will Saudi Arabia announce the cancellation or suspension of the Hajj pilgrimage, scheduled for 28 July 2020 to 2 August 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-18","Closed_time":"2020-07-28","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, before 1 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, between 1 July 2020 and 27 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, before 1 June 2020","Yes, between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020","Yes, between 1 July 2020 and 27 July 2020","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2020?","Started_time":"2020-02-07","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The Chinese economy is expected to be impacted by the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus in the country (NBC News,\u00a0BBC,\u00a0Foreign Policy,\u00a0FXStreet). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\"\u00a0For 2Q 2019, the index was 106.2, which equates to 6.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2020 are released, scheduled for July 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 4.0% and 4.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4.5% but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5.0% and 5.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 4.0%","Between 4.0% and 4.5%, inclusive","More than 4.5% but less than 5.0%","Between 5.0% and 5.5%, inclusive","More than 5.5%"],"target":"Less than 4.0%"}
{"Question":"Before 18 July 2020, will President Trump announce that Nikki Haley will be his 2020 running mate?","Started_time":"2020-03-06","Closed_time":"2020-07-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"In early March, Democratic Party insider and CNN contributor Paul Begala said that it was \"a certainty\" that Trump will \"dump Mike Pence and put Nikki Haley on the ticket\" on the last day of the Democratic National Convention (The Hill, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"For the month of June 2020, what will be the annual rate of inflation for the eurozone?","Started_time":"2019-12-27","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Christine Lagarde became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) in November 2019 at a time the eurozone faces various challenges, including how to balance a world of negative interest rates with an inflation target \"below, but close to, 2% over the medium term\" (Economist, ECB). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and closed upon the release of the relevant June (2020M06) Eurostat data for \"Euro area (19 countries)\" (Eurostat). Estimates would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0.0% or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Between 0.1% and 1.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"Between 1.0% and 2.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0.0% or less","Between 0.1% and 1.0%, inclusive","Between 1.0% and 2.0%","2.0% or more"],"target":"Between 0.1% and 1.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will the UK Office of National Statistics report the UK unemployment rate to be for the period March-May 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-24","Closed_time":"2020-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Amidst the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are fears of a spike in unemployment in the UK (City A.M., Guardian, Spectator.co.uk). The outcome will be determined using data from the Office of National Statistics for the Unemployment rate, aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted, for the period March-May 2020 (Office of National Statistics). For November 2019-January 2020, the rate was 3.9% (Office of National Statistics - March 2020 Bulletin). This question will suspend on 31 May 2020 and close when data are first released, typically in July (Office of National Statistics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"More than 7.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"}},"choices":["Less than 4.0%","Between 4.0% and 5.0%, inclusive","More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%","Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive","More than 7.0%"],"target":"Less than 4.0%"}
{"Question":"When will the first Major League Baseball game of the 2020 season be played?","Started_time":"2020-03-13","Closed_time":"2020-07-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Sports"],"Description":"On 12 March 2020, Major League Baseball (MLB) announced that it was suspending \"Spring Training games and to delay the start of the 2020 regular season by at least two weeks due to the national emergency created by the coronavirus pandemic\" (MLB, Sports Illustrated). Whether the first MLB game is played before spectators is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 16 April 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 April 2020 and 15 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 May 2020 and 15 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 June 2020 and 15 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 16 July 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 16 April 2020","Between 16 April 2020 and 15 May 2020","Between 16 May 2020 and 15 June 2020","Between 16 June 2020 and 15 July 2020","Not before 16 July 2020"],"target":"Not before 16 July 2020"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the South Korean won (\u20a9) against the U.S. dollar on 15 July 2020?","Started_time":"2020-02-28","Closed_time":"2020-07-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"South Korea, the first country other than China to reach over 1,000 COVID-19 cases, faces uncertainty as it battles the outbreak (CNBC, CBS News). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than \u20a91,150.0000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between \u20a91,150.0000 and  \u20a91,200.0000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"More than \u20a91,200.0000 but less than \u20a91,250.0000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Between \u20a91,250.0000 and  \u20a91,300.0000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than \u20a91,300.0000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than \u20a91,150.0000","Between \u20a91,150.0000 and  \u20a91,200.0000, inclusive","More than \u20a91,200.0000 but less than \u20a91,250.0000","Between \u20a91,250.0000 and  \u20a91,300.0000, inclusive","More than \u20a91,300.0000"],"target":"More than \u20a91,200.0000 but less than \u20a91,250.0000"}
{"Question":"Who will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Alabama for the 2020 race?","Started_time":"2020-04-03","Closed_time":"2020-07-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"In March, Alabama held the first round of its Republican primary for the race to fill a vacant seat this November (NBC News). However, the runoff between former Attorney General Jeff Sessions and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville was postponed until July due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jeff Sessions":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Tommy Tuberville":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Jeff Sessions","Tommy Tuberville","Someone else"],"target":"Tommy Tuberville"}
{"Question":"What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-01","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 18,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 18,000 tb\/d and 21,000 tb\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 21,000 tb\/d but less than 24,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"Between 24,000 tb\/d and 27,000 tb\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"More than 27,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 18,000 tb\/d","Between 18,000 tb\/d and 21,000 tb\/d, inclusive","More than 21,000 tb\/d but less than 24,000 tb\/d","Between 24,000 tb\/d and 27,000 tb\/d, inclusive","More than 27,000 tb\/d"],"target":"More than 21,000 tb\/d but less than 24,000 tb\/d"}
{"Question":"Will domestic sales of passenger vehicles in India be higher in April-June 2020 compared with April-June 2019?","Started_time":"2020-01-24","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"A slowing economy in India is affecting many sectors, including car sales (Economist, India Today). The question will be resolved based on data reported by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, or SIAM (SIAM). For April-June 2019 SIAM reported that the sale of Passenger Vehicles declined by 18.42% compared to April-June 2018 (SIAM, New Delhi Television). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2020 and resolved when the relevant data are released, usually in early July.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 12 June 2020 and 31 August 2020, what will be the highest number of COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the state of Texas for a single day?","Started_time":"2020-06-12","Closed_time":"2020-07-10","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2,500 and 5,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5,000 but less than 7,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7,500 and 10,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 10,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 2,500","Between 2,500 and 5,000, inclusive","More than 5,000 but less than 7,500","Between 7,500 and 10,000, inclusive","More than 10,000"],"target":"More than 10,000"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Dominican Republic presidential election?","Started_time":"2019-12-13","Closed_time":"2020-07-06","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The presidential election is scheduled for 17 May 2020, with a runoff scheduled for 28 June 2020 if needed (Economist, El D\u00eda [in Spanish], Constitution Project).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Luis Abinader":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Gonzalo Castillo":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Leonel Fern\u00e1ndez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Luis Abinader","Gonzalo Castillo","Leonel Fern\u00e1ndez","Someone else"],"target":"Luis Abinader"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will the Russian constitution be amended to allow Vladimir Putin to remain president after his current term?","Started_time":"2020-04-17","Closed_time":"2020-07-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Under Russia's current constitution, President Vladimir Putin is required to step down in 2024 (Guardian). A national vote on constitutional changes that, among other things, would allow him to continue serving as president was scheduled for 22 April 2020, but the vote was postponed due to COVID-19 (NPR, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal). The processes for amending the Russian constitution are found in Chapter 9 (Constitution.ru, Moscow Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Chiafalo v. Washington, will the Supreme Court rule that the state of Washington's fining of presidential electors for failing to vote for the nominee of their party is unconstitutional?","Started_time":"2020-01-31","Closed_time":"2020-07-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Washington state law requires Electoral College voters to cast their ballots for the presidential candidates from their party who won the popular vote in the state, but in 2016 four electors cast their votes for others and were fined (Seattle Times). The electors sued, claiming that the fine violated various provisions of the federal constitution (Oyez). The state supreme court upheld the fine, and this Supreme Court appeal followed (Casetext, SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2020, will federal legislation protecting financial institutions that serve legitimate marijuana businesses from federal criminal and civil enforcement become law?","Started_time":"2019-10-18","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Society","US Policy"],"Description":"Even as an increasing number of U.S. states legalize medical and recreational marijuana, current federal law leaves banks and other financial institutions vulnerable to prosecution if they work with marijuana businesses (NPR). In September 2019 the House of Representatives passed the Secure And Fair Enforcement Banking Act of 2019, which would protect financial institutions from criminal and civil enforcement actions related to serving legitimate marijuana businesses (Reuters, Congress.gov).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2020, will the Chilean government pass legislation nationalizing private pension fund assets?","Started_time":"2019-12-11","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for the reform of Chile\u2019s pension system have grown (Reuters,\u00a0IPE,\u00a0Economist,\u00a0Economist Intelligence Unit,\u00a0Financial Times). Examples of nationalization include, but are not limited to, the enactment of legislation compelling the divestiture or transfer of privately held pension funds to a public entity or the state, or a constitutional amendment to the same effect. The date or dates of actual asset nationalization would be immaterial.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1412, which closes in 2021 (Question #1412). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2020, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and\/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","Started_time":"2019-12-11","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile\u2019s pension system have grown (Financial Times,\u00a0AP,\u00a0IPE,\u00a0El Universal\u00a0[in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and\/or operating profits would count.Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1411, which closes in 2021 (Question #1411). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 30 June 2020?","Started_time":"2020-04-17","Closed_time":"2020-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 29 June 2020. The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 30 June 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO). As of 16 April 2020, WHO reported 98,480 total confirmed cases for the United Kingdom (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 180,000 cases":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 180,000 and 260,000 cases, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 260,000 but less than 340,000 cases":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 340,000 and 420,000 cases, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 420,000 cases":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 180,000 cases","Between 180,000 and 260,000 cases, inclusive","More than 260,000 but less than 340,000 cases","Between 340,000 and 420,000 cases, inclusive","More than 420,000 cases"],"target":"More than 260,000 but less than 340,000 cases"}
{"Question":"Between 7 February 2020 and 30 June 2020, will a lethal confrontation in Libya result in eight or more fatalities for Turkish armed forces?","Started_time":"2020-02-07","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"In the midst of ongoing turmoil in Libya, Turkey has begun deploying armed forces to the country (Economist, BBC). Tensions are high as various international actors support different Libyan factions (Al Jazeera, Middle East Monitor, Foreign Policy in Focus). Both the lethal confrontation and fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 27 June 2020, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. fall below 3.00%?","Started_time":"2020-03-13","Closed_time":"2020-06-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by data from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey press release, generally published five days after the week's end at Mortgage Bankers Association. For the week ending 6 March 2020, the rate was 3.47% (Mortgage Bankers Association).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2020, will Nepal release its 2020 census results for Indian rhinoceros?","Started_time":"2019-11-29","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"Nepal plans to conduct the census in March-April 2019, as there are concerns regarding the Indian rhinoceros population in the region (Khabarhub, Mongabay, Online Khabar).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, counting less than 550 Indian rhinoceros":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, counting between 550 and 600 Indian rhinoceros":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, counting more than 600 but less than 650 Indian rhinoceros":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, counting 650 or more Indian rhinoceros":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, counting less than 550 Indian rhinoceros","Yes, counting between 550 and 600 Indian rhinoceros","Yes, counting more than 600 but less than 650 Indian rhinoceros","Yes, counting 650 or more Indian rhinoceros","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will British Airways resume commercial flights to mainland China?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health"],"Description":"On 10 February 2020, British Airways announced that it had canceled all flights to Beijing and Shanghai until 31 March 2020, which it later extended until 17 April 2020 (Reuters, British Airways). Flights to Hong Kong or Macau would not count. For the purposes of this question, resumption of commercial flights will have occurred once a British Airways commercial flight is en route to mainland China.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 July 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 May 2020","Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020","Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020","Not before 1 July 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 July 2020"}
{"Question":"When will an NBA game next be played?","Started_time":"2020-03-13","Closed_time":"2020-07-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Sports"],"Description":"On 11 March 2020, the National Basketball Association (NBA) announced that it was suspending game play \"until further notice\" after a player tested positive for COVID-19 (NBA, ESPN). Whether the next NBA game is played before spectators is immaterial. An exhibition game would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 April 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2020 and 30 April 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 July 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 April 2020","Between 1 April 2020 and 30 April 2020","Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020","Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020","Not before 1 July 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 July 2020"}
{"Question":"What will happen in the first round of the next presidential election in Poland?","Started_time":"2020-06-05","Closed_time":"2020-06-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Poland recently postponed its presidential election due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was rescheduled for 28 June 2020 (US News, Reuters). An independent endorsed by a political party would count as a candidate of that political party.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"A Law and Justice candidate will win a majority of votes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"A Law and Justice candidate will win a plurality of votes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"A Civic Platform candidate will win a majority of votes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A Civic Platform candidate will win a plurality of votes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["A Law and Justice candidate will win a majority of votes","A Law and Justice candidate will win a plurality of votes","A Civic Platform candidate will win a majority of votes","A Civic Platform candidate will win a plurality of votes","None of the above"],"target":"A Law and Justice candidate will win a plurality of votes"}
{"Question":"Will the United States experience at least one quarter of negative real GDP growth in 2020?","Started_time":"2020-01-17","Closed_time":"2020-04-02","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2020 can be found here: https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/news\/schedule. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2021. The third estimate for Q3 2019 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent (BEA 2019). The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (BEA 2014).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win New York's 14th Congressional District Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-28","Closed_time":"2020-06-23","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The 14th Congressional District of New York is scheduled to hold its Democratic primary election on 23 June 2020. The incumbent, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has an international profile (Ballotpedia, NYPost, Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and she will win a majority of votes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Yes, and she will win a plurality of votes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, and she will win a majority of votes","Yes, and she will win a plurality of votes","No"],"target":"Yes, and she will win a majority of votes"}
{"Question":"Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on an extension, modification, or replacement for the New START treaty begin before 1 October 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-06","Closed_time":"2020-06-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011 and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years (Economist). There is an option to extend it for up to five years upon the agreement of both parties, or a new deal could be negotiated (CNN, Federation of American Scientists).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 19 June 2020 relative to its closing value on 19 March 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-20","Closed_time":"2020-06-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg). The S&P 500 Index closed at 2,409.39 on 19 March 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Down more than 15.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Up more than 15.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Down more than 15.0%","Down between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive","Between down less than 5.0% and up less than 5.0%","Up between 5.0% and 15.0%, inclusive","Up more than 15.0%"],"target":"Up more than 15.0%"}
{"Question":"In Department of Homeland Security (DHS) v. Regents of the University of California, will the Supreme Court rule that the DHS's decision to wind down the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy (DACA) is lawful?","Started_time":"2019-11-01","Closed_time":"2020-06-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"In 2017, the Trump administration began to phase out DACA, which postponed deportation proceedings for individuals illegally in the U.S. who were brought to the U.S. as children (Oyez). Various parties sued DHS, claiming among other things that the means DHS used to wind down the program were unlawful (SCOTUSblog, Casetext). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will close as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and\/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-29","Closed_time":"2020-06-15","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Zarda v. Altitude Express, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibition against employment discrimination \u201cbecause of\u2026sex\u201d encompasses discrimination based on an individual\u2019s sexual orientation?","Started_time":"2019-09-27","Closed_time":"2020-06-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Policy"],"Description":"Donald Zarda, a former sky-diving instructor, was terminated from his job after an alleged incident with a customer (Oyez, Case Text). After losing a sex discrimination suit claiming that he was dismissed for being homosexual, Zarda appealed and ultimately prevailed in the Second Circuit asserting, among other things, that he was protected as a homosexual under the Civil Rights Act (Case Text). The former employer filed this appeal (SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In R.G. & G.R. Harris Funeral Homes Inc. v. EEOC, will the Supreme Court rule that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibition against employment discrimination \u201cbecause of\u2026sex\u201d encompasses discrimination based on transgender status?","Started_time":"2019-09-27","Closed_time":"2020-06-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Policy"],"Description":"Aimee Stephens (formerly known as Anthony Stephens) worked as a funeral director at R.G. & G.R. Harris Funeral Homes, Inc. After she informed the Funeral Home\u2019s owner and operator that she intended to transition from male to female, she was terminated (Oyez, Case Text). Stephens filed a complaint with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), which eventually led to her prevailing at the Sixth Circuit (SCOTUSBlog). The former employer filed this appeal (Supreme Court). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will the 7-day average number of new cases of COVID-19 be in Texas for the week ending 13 June 2020, as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services?","Started_time":"2020-05-04","Closed_time":"2020-06-13","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 675":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 675 and 900, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 900 but less than 1,350":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,350 and 1,800, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"More than 1,800":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"}},"choices":["Less than 675","Between 675 and 900, inclusive","More than 900 but less than 1,350","Between 1,350 and 1,800, inclusive","More than 1,800"],"target":"Between 1,350 and 1,800, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Bolivian presidential election?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-06-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After the controversial re-election and subsequent resignation of leftist president Evo Morales in late 2019, a special general election has been scheduled for 3 May 2020 with a runoff scheduled for 14 June 2020 if needed (Americas Quarterly, AS\/COA, France24).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jeanine \u00c1\u00f1ez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Luis Arce":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Luis Camacho":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Carlos Mesa":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else or another outcome":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Jeanine \u00c1\u00f1ez","Luis Arce","Luis Camacho","Carlos Mesa","Someone else or another outcome"],"target":"Someone else or another outcome"}
{"Question":"Between 11 October 2019 and 12 June 2020, will the Hong Kong dollar close above HK$7.8510?","Started_time":"2019-10-11","Closed_time":"2020-06-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the U.S. dollar since 1983, and has been pegged to trade between HK$7.75 and HK$7.85 per U.S. dollar since 2005 (Reuters, Bloomberg). Ongoing anti-government protests have raised concerns about Hong Kong's economy, including the stability of the Hong Kong dollar (South China Morning Post, Reuters). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 10 June 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 April 2020?","Started_time":"2020-01-31","Closed_time":"2020-06-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 9-10 June 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Before 9 October 2020, will the music festival Coachella, which has been rescheduled for October 2020, be postponed or canceled?","Started_time":"2020-03-20","Closed_time":"2020-06-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Entertainment"],"Description":"Coachella, an annual music festival that typically takes place in April, was rescheduled in 2020 due to concerns over COVID-19 (NY Times, CNN). The festival is now scheduled for 9-11 and 16-18 October. For the purposes of this question, a partial cancellation and\/or partial postponement would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Georgia Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-28","Closed_time":"2020-06-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Georgia primary is scheduled for 24 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Who will be selected as the next leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party at its special party congress?","Started_time":"2020-03-13","Closed_time":"2020-05-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"A race to succeed Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer began when she announced unexpectedly in February she will step down as CDU party leader later this summer (BBC). Her successor is expected to be selected during a special party congress, scheduled for 25 April 2020 (Deutsche Welle, Foreign Policy).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Armin Laschet":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"Friedrich Merz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Norbert R\u00f6ttgen":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"No successor will be selected at the special party congress or the special party congress will be canceled":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["Armin Laschet","Friedrich Merz","Norbert R\u00f6ttgen","Someone else","No successor will be selected at the special party congress or the special party congress will be canceled"],"target":"No successor will be selected at the special party congress or the special party congress will be canceled"}
{"Question":"Will the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference (NPT RevCon) produce a consensus statement?","Started_time":"2019-12-06","Closed_time":"2020-06-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"There have been nine NPT RevCons in the treaty's existence (Economist). The widely used metric of a successful conference is for all parties to reach consensus on a RevCon final document. Four RevCons have failed to reach consensus, but never before at consecutive conferences (European Leadership Network). The NPT RevCon is scheduled to take place in New York from 27 April to 22 May 2020 (State.gov).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 June 2020?","Started_time":"2019-12-13","Closed_time":"2020-06-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020","Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite increasing international pressure and domestic instability (Economist, Americas Quarterly, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Ohio Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-04-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Ohio primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"How much of the U.S. corn crop will be planted as of 31 May 2020, according to the USDA?","Started_time":"2020-02-07","Closed_time":"2020-06-01","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases regular Crop Progress reports with, among other things, a percentage of acreage planted among major corn-producing states (USDA Crop Progress Reports). The outcome will be determined using data for selected states provided in the USDA's Crop Progress report scheduled for release on 1 June 2020 (USDA Release Schedule). As of 2 June 2019, 67% of corn plantings by acre were completed in selected states (USDA 3 June 2019 Crop Progress, see table on page 1).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 70%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 70% and 80%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 80% but less than 90%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"90% or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 70%","Between 70% and 80%, inclusive","More than 80% but less than 90%","90% or more"],"target":"90% or more"}
{"Question":"When will the CDC's novel coronavirus travel notice for China be lowered below \"Warning - Level 3\" and\/or narrowed to cover only part of the country?","Started_time":"2020-02-07","Closed_time":"2020-06-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"On 27 January 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) widened its highest travel warning, \u201cWarning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel,\u201d to include all of China (CDC, Washington Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 March 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 March 2020 and 15 April 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16 April 2020 and 31 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 June 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 March 2020","Between 1 March 2020 and 15 April 2020","Between 16 April 2020 and 31 May 2020","Not before 1 June 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 June 2020"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2020, will SpaceX launch its first crewed mission into orbit?","Started_time":"2020-02-28","Closed_time":"2020-05-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"After passing a key safety milestone in January 2020 (SpaceX), Elon Musk is hopeful 'Crew Dragon', SpaceX's crewed capsule, launches soon (Space.com, CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"By when will more than 15,000,000 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in the United States?","Started_time":"2020-04-10","Closed_time":"2020-05-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"COVID-19 testing constraints in the United States have been a crucial factor in the response to the outbreak (NY Times, The Atlantic, Stat News, CNN). This question will be resolved based on total tests data reported for a date as of the following day at 4:00PM ET by The COVID Tracking Project for \"US Daily Cumulative Totals\" (COVID Tracking Project). As of 8 April 2020, 2,197,743 COVID-19 total tests had been conducted in the United States.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May and 31 May 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 June and 30 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 August 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 May 2020","Between 1 May and 31 May 2020","Between 1 June and 30 June 2020","Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020","Not before 1 August 2020"],"target":"Between 1 May and 31 May 2020"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2021, will Tesla release an Autopilot feature designed to navigate traffic lights?","Started_time":"2020-04-02","Closed_time":"2020-04-24","Challenges_list":["2020 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Tesla CEO Elon Musk has expressed interest in adding a feature to navigate city streets, including traffic lights (The Driven, Endgadget, EV Bite).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 July 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July and 30 September 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 1 October and 31 December 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Not before 1 January 2021":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"}},"choices":["Before 1 July 2020","Between 1 July and 30 September 2020","Between 1 October and 31 December 2020","Not before 1 January 2021"],"target":"Before 1 July 2020"}
{"Question":"How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 17 May 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-11","Closed_time":"2020-05-17","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1,400,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,450,000 but less than 1,500,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 1,550,000 but less than 1,600,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,600,000 and 1,650,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,650,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1,400,000","Between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000, inclusive","More than 1,450,000 but less than 1,500,000","Between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000, inclusive","More than 1,550,000 but less than 1,600,000","Between 1,600,000 and 1,650,000, inclusive","More than 1,650,000"],"target":"More than 1,450,000 but less than 1,500,000"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Arab Emirates as of 15 May 2020?","Started_time":"2020-04-10","Closed_time":"2020-05-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the latest Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report as of 15 May 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO Situation Reports). As of 9 April 2020, WHO reported 2,659 confirmed cases for the United Arab Emirates (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5,000 cases":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5,000 and 10,000 cases, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 10,000 but less than 25,000 cases":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 25,000 and 50,000 cases, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 50,000 cases":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 5,000 cases","Between 5,000 and 10,000 cases, inclusive","More than 10,000 but less than 25,000 cases","Between 25,000 and 50,000 cases, inclusive","More than 50,000 cases"],"target":"More than 10,000 but less than 25,000 cases"}
{"Question":"Between 4 October 2019 and 12 May 2020, how many states will fully ban the retail sale of vaping products?","Started_time":"2019-10-04","Closed_time":"2020-05-12","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health"],"Description":"While many American jurisdictions have imposed various restrictions on the sale of vaping products, Massachusetts became the first state to impose a full ban (MassLive, Mass.gov, FDA). When a ban would take effect is immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Zero":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"One or two":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Three or four":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Five or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Zero","One or two","Three or four","Five or more"],"target":"Zero"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 13 May 2020, according to Bloomberg?","Started_time":"2020-03-10","Closed_time":"2020-05-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health","Economic Indicators","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"Amid the COVID-19 outbreak spreading around the world and fears of a price war between Russia and OPEC members, oil prices saw their largest single day percentage drop since 1991 (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $25.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54%"},"More than $35.00 but less than $45.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $55.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $25.00","Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive","More than $35.00 but less than $45.00","Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive","More than $55.00"],"target":"Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in\u00a0Sudan from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2020, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2019-03-29","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2019 and will be resolved in April 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines\u00a0from April 2019 to March 2020. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 10 May 2020?","Started_time":"2020-05-04","Closed_time":"2020-05-10","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1,200,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,200,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,250,000 but less than 1,300,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,300,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than 1,350,000 but less than 1,400,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,450,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1,200,000","Between 1,200,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive","More than 1,250,000 but less than 1,300,000","Between 1,300,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive","More than 1,350,000 but less than 1,400,000","Between 1,400,000 and 1,450,000, inclusive","More than 1,450,000"],"target":"Between 1,300,000 and 1,350,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana, as reported by COVID Tracker?","Started_time":"2020-04-23","Closed_time":"2020-05-09","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 8 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 9 May 2020 as provided on 11 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). As of 19 April 2020, reported Louisiana deaths totaled 1,296.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2,000 and 2,750, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 2,750 but less than 3,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,500 and 4,250, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4,250":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2,000","Between 2,000 and 2,750, inclusive","More than 2,750 but less than 3,500","Between 3,500 and 4,250, inclusive","More than 4,250"],"target":"Between 2,000 and 2,750, inclusive"}
{"Question":"As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the U.S. as reported by COVID Tracker?","Started_time":"2020-04-23","Closed_time":"2020-05-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 8 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 9 May 2020 as provided on 11 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). As of 19 April 2020, reported U.S. deaths totaled 35,793.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 60,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 60,000 and 70,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 70,000 but less than 80,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 80,000 and 90,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 90,000 but less than 100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 60,000","Between 60,000 and 70,000, inclusive","More than 70,000 but less than 80,000","Between 80,000 and 90,000, inclusive","More than 90,000 but less than 100,000","More than 100,000"],"target":"More than 70,000 but less than 80,000"}
{"Question":"As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois, as reported by COVID Tracker?","Started_time":"2020-04-23","Closed_time":"2020-05-09","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 8 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 9 May 2020 as provided on 11 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). As of 19 April 2020, reported Illinois deaths totaled 1,290.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2,000 and 3,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,000 but less than 4,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 4,000 and 5,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2,000","Between 2,000 and 3,000, inclusive","More than 3,000 but less than 4,000","Between 4,000 and 5,000, inclusive","More than 5,000"],"target":"More than 3,000 but less than 4,000"}
{"Question":"Will a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) declaration pertaining to the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) be in effect as of 6 May 2020?","Started_time":"2020-02-14","Closed_time":"2020-05-07","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health"],"Description":"On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General declared a PHEIC regarding COVID-19 (Statnews, Guardian, WHO). The Emergency Committee is due to reconvene within three months or earlier from the date of the declaration to review the current epidemiological situation (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many paying subscribers will \"Disney+\" have according to Disney in the second quarter of its Fiscal Year 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-06","Closed_time":"2020-05-05","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Entertainment"],"Description":"Disney+, the media giant's streaming service, launched in November 2019 (Economist,\u00a0CNET). Disney reported 26.5 million subscribers for the first quarter of its Fiscal Year 2020 (October-December 2019) and has further plans to launch in Europe in late March 2020 (Walt Disney Company, CNBC). Disney's earnings for the second quarter of its Fiscal Year 2020 (January-March 2020) are scheduled to be released on 12 May 2020 (Business Insider).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 35.0 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 35.0 million and 45.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"More than 45.0 million but less than 55.0 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"55.0 million or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54%"},"Disney will not report paying subscriber figures for Disney+":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 35.0 million","Between 35.0 million and 45.0 million, inclusive","More than 45.0 million but less than 55.0 million","55.0 million or more","Disney will not report paying subscriber figures for Disney+"],"target":"Less than 35.0 million"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?","Started_time":"2020-01-03","Closed_time":"2020-02-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for 3 February 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates, reported as \"state delegate equivalents\" in Iowa (Des Moines Register). In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most final votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Pete Buttigieg","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Pete Buttigieg"}
{"Question":"How many states will have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths as of 1 May 2020?","Started_time":"2020-04-13","Closed_time":"2020-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As of 11 April 2020, three states have reported 1,000 or more COVID-19 deaths: Michigan, New Jersey, and New York. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 1 May 2020 as provided on 4 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5 and 7, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 7 but less than 11":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11 and 13, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"More than 13":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"}},"choices":["Less than 5","Between 5 and 7, inclusive","More than 7 but less than 11","Between 11 and 13, inclusive","More than 13"],"target":"More than 13"}
{"Question":"How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 3 May 2020?","Started_time":"2020-04-27","Closed_time":"2020-05-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1,050,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,050,000 and 1,100,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,100,000 but less than 1,150,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Between 1,150,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"More than 1,200,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1,050,000","Between 1,050,000 and 1,100,000, inclusive","More than 1,100,000 but less than 1,150,000","Between 1,150,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","More than 1,200,000"],"target":"Between 1,150,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 May 2020, will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) close below 15.00?","Started_time":"2020-03-20","Closed_time":"2020-05-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options (Investopedia). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 29 April 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 18 March 2020?","Started_time":"2019-12-13","Closed_time":"2020-04-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 28-29 April 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Before 4 July 2020, will Fitch, Moody's, and\/or S&P downgrade Italy's long-term foreign currency issuer ratings?","Started_time":"2020-03-27","Closed_time":"2020-04-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Amidst a full lockdown, Italy's long-term growth potential could take a hit (Reuters, Trading Economics). Revisions to the \"outlook\" would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be Russia's 2019 military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, according to SIPRI?","Started_time":"2018-04-18","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using data reported by SIPRI. According to SIPRI, Russia's 2016 military expenditures were 5.3% of GDP. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 4.4%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"Between 4.4% and 4.9%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"More than 4.9% but less than 5.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 5.5% and 6.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 4.4%","Between 4.4% and 4.9%, inclusive","More than 4.9% but less than 5.5%","Between 5.5% and 6.0%, inclusive","More than 6.0%"],"target":"Less than 4.4%"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 June 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-26","Closed_time":"2020-04-26","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 8,081 confirmed cases for the United Kingdom (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 June 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 25,000 cases":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 25,000 and 65,000 cases, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 65,000 but less than 105,000 cases":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 105,000 and 145,000 cases, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 145,000 cases":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 25,000 cases","Between 25,000 and 65,000 cases, inclusive","More than 65,000 but less than 105,000 cases","Between 105,000 and 145,000 cases, inclusive","More than 145,000 cases"],"target":"More than 145,000 cases"}
{"Question":"In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. City of New York, NY (NYC), will the Supreme Court rule that NYC\u2019s previous ban on transporting a licensed, locked, and unloaded handgun to a home or shooting range outside city limits is unconstitutional?","Started_time":"2019-11-29","Closed_time":"2020-04-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics"],"Description":"Various plaintiffs sued NYC in federal court over the limits it placed on transporting licensed firearms in the city, where NYC prevailed (NYC.gov,\u00a0Leagle). While the Second Circuit affirmed the lower court, NYC, fearing a loss before the Supreme Court after it agreed to hear an appeal, eased the relevant limits in the hopes of rendering the appeal moot (Casetext, NY Times, Washington Post). The Court declined to dismiss the case due to mootness, though the issue is set to be considered along with the merits at oral arguments (Oyez, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2019 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as \"No.\" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as \"No.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 26 April 2020?","Started_time":"2020-04-20","Closed_time":"2020-04-26","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 25 April 2020. The outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 26 April 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 27 April under \"Positive\" (COVID Tracking Project). The COVID Tracking Project reported 576,774 total cases through 13 April 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 850,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 850,000 and 900,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 900,000 but less than 950,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 950,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"More than 1,000,000 but less than 1,050,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,050,000 and 1,100,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 850,000","Between 850,000 and 900,000, inclusive","More than 900,000 but less than 950,000","Between 950,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive","More than 1,000,000 but less than 1,050,000","Between 1,050,000 and 1,100,000, inclusive","More than 1,100,000"],"target":"Between 950,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 18 April 2020, will former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain?","Started_time":"2019-10-18","Closed_time":"2020-04-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"There is an international arrest warrant out for Puigdemont, who fled Catalonia after an October 2017 independence referendum that the Spanish government declared to be illegal (Washington Post, El Pais, Reuters, Independent).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2020?","Started_time":"2020-02-07","Closed_time":"2020-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The Chinese economy is expected to be impacted by the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus in the country (NBC News, BBC, Foreign Policy, FXStreet). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics (National Bureau of Statistics). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\" For 1Q 2019, the index was 106.4, which equates to 6.4% growth. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2020 and closed when the relevant data for 1Q 2020 are released, scheduled for April 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 4.0% and 4.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 4.5% but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5.0% and 5.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 4.0%","Between 4.0% and 4.5%, inclusive","More than 4.5% but less than 5.0%","Between 5.0% and 5.5%, inclusive","More than 5.5%"],"target":"Less than 4.0%"}
{"Question":"How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 19 April 2020?","Started_time":"2020-04-13","Closed_time":"2020-04-19","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 18 April 2020. The outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 19 April 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 20 April under \"Positive\" (COVID Tracking Project). The COVID Tracking Project reported 424,289 total cases through 8 April 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 700,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 700,000 and 750,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"More than 750,000 but less than 800,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Between 800,000 and 850,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 850,000 but less than 900,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 900,000 and 950,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 950,000 but less than 1,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1,000,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 700,000","Between 700,000 and 750,000, inclusive","More than 750,000 but less than 800,000","Between 800,000 and 850,000, inclusive","More than 850,000 but less than 900,000","Between 900,000 and 950,000, inclusive","More than 950,000 but less than 1,000,000","1,000,000 or more"],"target":"Between 700,000 and 750,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan on 17 April 2020?","Started_time":"2019-10-11","Closed_time":"2020-04-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"In August 2019, the yuan rose above the 7-per-dollar level for the first time in eleven years amidst increased China-US trade tensions (Reuters). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than CNY 6.5000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between CNY 6.5000 and CNY 7.0000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between CNY 7.0000 and CNY 7.5000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between CNY 7.5000 and CNY 8.0000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than CNY 8.0000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than CNY 6.5000","Between CNY 6.5000 and CNY 7.0000, inclusive","Between CNY 7.0000 and CNY 7.5000","Between CNY 7.5000 and CNY 8.0000, inclusive","More than CNY 8.0000"],"target":"Between CNY 7.0000 and CNY 7.5000"}
{"Question":"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-26","Closed_time":"2020-04-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 39,673 confirmed cases for Spain (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 May 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 60,000 cases":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 60,000 and 100,000 cases, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 100,000 but less than 140,000 cases":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 140,000 and 180,000 cases, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 180,000 cases":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 60,000 cases","Between 60,000 and 100,000 cases, inclusive","More than 100,000 but less than 140,000 cases","Between 140,000 and 180,000 cases, inclusive","More than 180,000 cases"],"target":"More than 180,000 cases"}
{"Question":"How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will The COVID Tracking Project report as of Sunday 12 April 2020?","Started_time":"2020-04-05","Closed_time":"2020-04-12","Challenges_list":["Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The question will be suspended on 11 April 2020 and the outcome will be determined using data from The COVID Tracking Project for Sunday 12 April 2020 as of 4:00PM ET on Monday 13 April under \"Positive\" (The COVID Tracking Project). The COVID Tracking Project reported\u00a0305,755 total cases through 4 April 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 500,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 600,000 but less than 700,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 800,000 but less than 900,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 900,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,000,000 but less than 1,100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1,200,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 500,000","Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive","More than 600,000 but less than 700,000","Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive","More than 800,000 but less than 900,000","Between 900,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive","More than 1,000,000 but less than 1,100,000","Between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive","More than 1,200,000"],"target":"Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for Spain as of 1 May 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-26","Closed_time":"2020-04-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 2,696 deaths attributed to COVID-19 for Spain (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 May 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of deaths reported before this question's launch (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 6,000 deaths":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6,000 and 9,000 deaths, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 9,000 but less than 12,000 deaths":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12,000 and 15,000 deaths, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 15,000 deaths":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 6,000 deaths","Between 6,000 and 9,000 deaths, inclusive","More than 9,000 but less than 12,000 deaths","Between 12,000 and 15,000 deaths, inclusive","More than 15,000 deaths"],"target":"More than 15,000 deaths"}
{"Question":"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the United Kingdom as of 1 June 2020?","Started_time":"2020-03-26","Closed_time":"2020-04-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"As of 25 March 2020, WHO reported 422 deaths attributed to COVID-19 for the United Kingdom (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO in the 1 June 2020 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report and inclusive of deaths reported before this question's launch (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1,000 deaths":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,000 and 3,000 deaths, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,000 but less than 5,000 deaths":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5,000 and 7,000 deaths, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 7,000 deaths":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 1,000 deaths","Between 1,000 and 3,000 deaths, inclusive","More than 3,000 but less than 5,000 deaths","Between 5,000 and 7,000 deaths, inclusive","More than 7,000 deaths"],"target":"More than 7,000 deaths"}
{"Question":"When will Bernie Sanders cease to be a candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination for president?","Started_time":"2020-04-03","Closed_time":"2020-04-08","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the two remaining candidates in the race for the Democratic nomination (NPR, NY Times). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that Sanders no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that he is fully suspending his campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 May 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 August 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 May 2020","Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020","Between 1 June 2020 and 30 June 2020","Between 1 July 2020 and 31 July 2020","Not before 1 August 2020"],"target":"Before 1 May 2020"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Washington Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-03-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Washington primary is scheduled for 10 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else","Michael Bloomberg"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Will the monthly U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) reach or exceed 4.0% for any month before 1 November 2020?","Started_time":"2019-11-15","Closed_time":"2020-04-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS (Release), BLS (Data)). If applicable, the question will be suspended on 31 October 2020 and resolved when the data for October are first released, scheduled for 6 November 2020 (BLS (Schedule)). Revisions to U3 data would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price for Brent crude oil on 31 March 2020?","Started_time":"2019-12-20","Closed_time":"2020-03-31","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined by the closing\u00a0 price for Brent crude oil as reported by Business Insider (Business Insider).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $63.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between $63.00 and $69.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $69.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $63.00 per barrel","Between $63.00 and $69.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $69.00 per barrel"],"target":"Less than $63.00 per barrel"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2020, will the European Council decide to open accession negotiations with Albania and\/or North Macedonia?","Started_time":"2020-02-14","Closed_time":"2020-03-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Albania and North Macedonia have been candidates for EU membership since 2014 and 2005, respectively (consilium.europa.eu).\u00a0Some member states want negotiations to begin soon (Politico, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Albania":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only North Macedonia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both Albania and North Macedonia":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Albania","Yes, only North Macedonia","Yes, both Albania and North Macedonia","No"],"target":"Yes, both Albania and North Macedonia"}
{"Question":"Before 24 July 2020, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and\/or Paralympics will be postponed, canceled, and\/or relocated?","Started_time":"2020-02-28","Closed_time":"2020-03-24","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Health","Sports"],"Description":"The 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo, Japan, are scheduled for 24 July - 9 August 2020, with the Paralympic Games to follow 25 August - 6 September 2020 (Olympic.org, Paralympic.org). There is speculation the outbreak of COVID-19 could lead to postponing, canceling, or relocating the games (Time, BBC, Guardian, Newsweek).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, the Olympic Games only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, the Paralympic Games only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, the Olympic Games only","Yes, the Paralympic Games only","Yes, both","No"],"target":"Yes, both"}
{"Question":"Between 4 October 2019 and 1 April 2020, will legislation in a U.S. state allowing college athletes to receive financial compensation for their names, images, and\/or likenesses become law?","Started_time":"2019-10-04","Closed_time":"2020-03-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","US Policy"],"Description":"California Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation in September 2019 that would enable many college student-athletes to receive compensation for the use of the student\u2019s name, image, or likeness, which runs counter to current NCAA rules (LA Times, CBS Sports, Wall Street Journal, Economist). The date a law would take effect and whether a law includes all college athletes are immaterial. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered to be a state.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?","Started_time":"2020-01-28","Closed_time":"2020-03-20","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Global Judgment Challenge 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China and elsewhere has caused alarm all around the globe (CNN, BBC). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 2,798 confirmed cases globally (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 March 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO).NOTE 17 February 2020:\u00a0As WHO has begun reporting both \"laboratory-confirmed\" and \"clinically diagnosed\" cases in their reporting, GJO will include both for so long as WHO reports the figures. See bullet point #2 under Highlights in the 17 February Situation Report.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 10,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 10,000 and 25,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 25,000 but less than 100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 200,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 10,000","Between 10,000 and 25,000, inclusive","More than 25,000 but less than 100,000","Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive","More than 200,000"],"target":"More than 200,000"}
{"Question":"Before 22 May 2020, will the Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix auto race be postponed or canceled?","Started_time":"2020-03-13","Closed_time":"2020-03-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health","Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"The COVID-19 outbreak has already impacted the 2020 season of Formula 1 auto racing in China and Bahrain (CNN, Autoweek). The Monaco Grand Prix is currently scheduled for 22-24 May 2020 (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"No, but public attendance will be restricted":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No, and public attendance will not be restricted":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes","No, but public attendance will be restricted","No, and public attendance will not be restricted"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-03-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Arizona primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 18 March 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 29 January 2020?","Started_time":"2019-12-13","Closed_time":"2020-03-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 17-18 March 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Lower"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Society","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2018-12-28","Closed_time":"2019-03-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2019 and will be resolved in January 2020 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from January 2019 to December 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See The Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity will be installed in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of 2019?","Started_time":"2019-11-15","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Despite impressive growth, the solar energy market faces some uncertainty in the near future (Solar Power World, Financial Times). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and closed when the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) releases its \"2019 Year in Review\" report, typically around the middle of March (SEIA). The archive of past reports can be found by clicking the \"+\" next to \"Solar Market Insight Report Archives\". In the second quarter of 2019, the SEIA reported that 2.1 GWdc of solar PV had been installed (SEIA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"2.0 GWdc or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.0 GWdc but less than 2.6 GWdc":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.6 GWdc and 3.0 GWdc, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.0 GWdc":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["2.0 GWdc or less","More than 2.0 GWdc but less than 2.6 GWdc","Between 2.6 GWdc and 3.0 GWdc, inclusive","More than 3.0 GWdc"],"target":"More than 3.0 GWdc"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Illinois Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-03-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Illinois primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Florida Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-03-17","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Florida primary is scheduled for 17 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Before 15 March 2020, will the parliament of New Zealand pass a bill that would create a national gun register?","Started_time":"2019-10-11","Closed_time":"2020-03-15","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"New Zealand passed various gun control measures after the March 2019 attacks in Christchurch (CNN, Radio New Zealand). Additional gun control legislation that, among other things, provides for a new national gun register was introduced in September 2019, but is facing resistance (Parliament of New Zealand, Newsroom, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Bernie Sanders win a majority of Democratic pledged delegates on Super Tuesday?","Started_time":"2020-02-07","Closed_time":"2020-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Fourteen states, one U.S. territory, and \"Democrats Abroad\" are scheduled to hold their Democratic primaries & caucuses on 3 March 2020, known as \"Super Tuesday\" (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the majority of pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) will the World Health Organization (WHO) report as of 1 June 2020?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-03-16","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The COVID-19 outbreak that began in late 2019 has caused more fatalities than the 2002-03 SARS outbreak (CNN, CNBC, WHO, The Hill). As of 19 February 2020, WHO has reported 2,009 deaths caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2,500 and 3,500, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,500 but less than 4,500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4,500 and 5,500, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5,500":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 2,500","Between 2,500 and 3,500, inclusive","More than 3,500 but less than 4,500","Between 4,500 and 5,500, inclusive","More than 5,500"],"target":"More than 5,500"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 California Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-14","Closed_time":"2020-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The California primary is scheduled for \"Super Tuesday\" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Bernie Sanders"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Missouri Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-03-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Missouri primary is scheduled for 10 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-03-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Michigan primary is scheduled for 10 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Between 13 December 2019 and 1 May 2020, will either Moody's or S&P downgrade Bolivia's credit rating?","Started_time":"2019-12-20","Closed_time":"2020-03-10","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"Amid political turmoil in the South American country, Fitch Ratings downgraded Bolivia's long-term credit rating from BB- to B+ (Reuters, Fitch Ratings). In early December 2019, Moody's announced that it was putting Bolivia's rating under review (Moody's). As of 13 December 2019, Moody's rating was Ba3 and S&P's rating was BB- (Trading Economics, Wolf Street). The question will resolve based on a change to the long-term foreign currency credit rating. Any changes to the outlook or other ratings for Bolivia would be immaterial.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Colorado Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-14","Closed_time":"2020-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Colorado primary is scheduled for \"Super Tuesday\" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Bernie Sanders"}
{"Question":"When will total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) in California reach 25 or more?","Started_time":"2020-02-21","Closed_time":"2020-03-04","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The first case of COVID-19 infection in the state of California was confirmed by the CDC on 26 January 2020 (NBC Bay Area, CDC). As of 20 February 2020, there were eight qualifying cases in California (NBC News, Washington Post). The outcome will be determined using open source data and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch. Instances of cases in individuals brought from outside the state to be held in quarantine in California would not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 March 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 April 2020 and 30 April 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 March 2020","Between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2020","Between 1 April 2020 and 30 April 2020","Between 1 May 2020 and 31 May 2020","Not before 1 June 2020"],"target":"Between 1 March 2020 and 31 March 2020"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-14","Closed_time":"2020-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Massachusetts primary is scheduled for \"Super Tuesday\" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Texas Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-14","Closed_time":"2020-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Texas primary is scheduled for \"Super Tuesday\" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Minnesota Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-14","Closed_time":"2020-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Minnesota primary is scheduled for \"Super Tuesday\" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 North Carolina Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-14","Closed_time":"2020-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The North Carolina primary is scheduled for \"Super Tuesday\" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Virginia Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-02-14","Closed_time":"2020-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Virginia primary is scheduled for \"Super Tuesday\" on 3 March 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"Michael Bloomberg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amy Klobuchar":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Michael Bloomberg","Pete Buttigieg","Amy Klobuchar","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Before 13 July 2020, will the United States and Afghan Taliban sign a peace agreement?","Started_time":"2019-12-20","Closed_time":"2020-02-29","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020","Global Judgment Challenge 2020"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The U.S. and Taliban were seemingly close to a peace agreement in September 2019, but talks abruptly ended after a Taliban attack (Economist). Talks restarted in December 2019 (NBC News, Al Jazeera).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-01-31","Closed_time":"2020-02-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The South Carolina primary is scheduled for 29 February 2020 (270 To Win). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Tom Steyer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Bernie Sanders","Tom Steyer","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Biden"}
{"Question":"Which horse will win the Saudi Cup?","Started_time":"2019-11-29","Closed_time":"2020-02-29","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Sports","Entertainment"],"Description":"Saudi Arabia is scheduled to host a new horse race on 29 February 2020, the Saudi Cup, which is billed as the richest horse race ever (CNN, US Racing, Saudi Cup).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Game Winner":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Gronkowski":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Maximum Security":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"McKinzie":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Midnight Bisou":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Tacitus":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Thunder Snow":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"}},"choices":["Game Winner","Gronkowski","Maximum Security","McKinzie","Midnight Bisou","Tacitus","Thunder Snow","None of the above"],"target":"Maximum Security"}
{"Question":"How many U.S. states will the CDC report as having had a confirmed case of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as of 28 February 2020?","Started_time":"2020-01-28","Closed_time":"2020-02-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Coronavirus Outbreak"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The first case of Wuhan coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed in Washington state in mid-January 2020 (WebMD, USAToday). As of 27 January 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported cases in four states (Arizona, California, Illinois, and Washington). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by the CDC for 28 February 2020 and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (CDC). For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.NOTE 24 February 2020: We are aware that the CDC stopped providing the map depicting states with cases late last week. We have been in contact with the CDC seeking more information about their plans for future reporting. However, the threshold hasn't changed and data from the CDC will continue to be the controlling source for the resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5 and 11":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between 12 and 18":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 19 and 25":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 25":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 5","Between 5 and 11","Between 12 and 18","Between 19 and 25","More than 25"],"target":"Between 5 and 11"}
{"Question":"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","Started_time":"2019-11-15","Closed_time":"2020-02-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Less than a year after Lebanon's new government received a vote of confidence in February 2019, ongoing popular protests led to Prime Minister Saad Hariri's resignation in October 2019 (Washington Post, Economist, France24).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January and 29 February 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 1 March and 30 April 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Between 1 May and 30 June 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Not before 1 July 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2020","Between 1 January and 29 February 2020","Between 1 March and 30 April 2020","Between 1 May and 30 June 2020","Not before 1 July 2020"],"target":"Between 1 January and 29 February 2020"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses?","Started_time":"2020-01-24","Closed_time":"2020-02-22","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Nevada caucuses are scheduled for 22 February 2020 (270 To Win, Nevada Democratic Party). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most county convention delegates will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"},"Tom Steyer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Bernie Sanders","Tom Steyer","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Bernie Sanders"}
{"Question":"What will be the 2019 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","Started_time":"2018-11-16","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (China Dialogue, Financial Times). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2019, which will replicate an approach published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study (The Stockholm Environment Institute). The Mack Institute found that \"there was a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2017, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2017 was US $236 per kWh\"\u00a0(The Mack Institute).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $140 per kWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $140 and $155 per kWh, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than $155 but less than $170 per kWh":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"Between $170 and $185 per kWh, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"More than $185 kWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $140 per kWh","Between $140 and $155 per kWh, inclusive","More than $155 but less than $170 per kWh","Between $170 and $185 per kWh, inclusive","More than $185 kWh"],"target":"More than $155 but less than $170 per kWh"}
{"Question":"Before 1 May 2020, will China reduce or remove any tariffs imposed on U.S. yellow soybeans?","Started_time":"2019-12-06","Closed_time":"2020-02-15","Challenges_list":["Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Economic Policy"],"Description":"China has increased import tariffs on U.S. yellow soybeans (also known as yellow soya beans) to 33% as of the launch of this question (USDA, South China Morning Post, Bloomberg, CNBC). Tariff exemptions and waivers would not count toward the resolution of the question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many total complaints of suspected Internet crime will the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) report for 2019?","Started_time":"2019-11-08","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society"],"Description":"The FBI's IC3 collects Internet crime complaints and publishes an annual Internet Crime Report (IC3). In 2018, IC3 reported 351,937 complaints of suspected Internet crime (FBI). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and the outcome will be determined using IC3's 2019 Internet Crime Report, expected to be released in the spring of 2020 (IC3 Annual Reports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 325,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 325,000 and 375,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"More than 375,000 but less than 425,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"425,000 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"}},"choices":["Less than 325,000","Between 325,000 and 375,000, inclusive","More than 375,000 but less than 425,000","425,000 or more"],"target":"425,000 or more"}
{"Question":"What will be the total monetary value of victim losses reported by the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) for 2019?","Started_time":"2019-11-08","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society"],"Description":"The FBI's IC3 collects Internet crime complaints and publishes an annual Internet Crime Report (IC3). In 2018, IC3 reported in excess of $2.7 billion in total victim losses (FBI). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and the outcome will be determined using IC3's 2019 Internet Crime Report, expected to be released in the spring of 2020 (IC3 Annual Reports).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $2.5 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than $3.5 billion but less than $4.5 billion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$4.5 billion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $2.5 billion","Between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion, inclusive","More than $3.5 billion but less than $4.5 billion","$4.5 billion or more"],"target":"More than $3.5 billion but less than $4.5 billion"}
{"Question":"Between 8 March and 31 December 2019, how many accidents involving a self-driving vehicle operating in autonomous mode in the U.S. will result in a fatality?","Started_time":"2019-03-08","Closed_time":"2019-12-31","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"Accidents involving autonomous vehicles can occur due to both human error and technical fault (Digital Trends, CNET). For this question, vehicles include cars, SUVs, trucks, minivans, vans, etc.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0 accidents":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"1 accident":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"2 accidents":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3 accidents":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 accidents or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0 accidents","1 accident","2 accidents","3 accidents","4 accidents or more"],"target":"0 accidents"}
{"Question":"Test","Started_time":"2020-02-12","Closed_time":"2020-02-12","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2020-01-03","Closed_time":"2020-02-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","US Election 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The New Hampshire primary is scheduled for 11 February 2020 (270 To Win, New Hampshire Public Radio). The outcome will be determined based on who wins the most pledged delegates. In the event of a tie, the candidate with the most votes will be considered the winner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Biden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Pete Buttigieg":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Biden","Pete Buttigieg","Bernie Sanders","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Bernie Sanders"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Actress?","Started_time":"2020-01-15","Closed_time":"2020-02-09","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 92nd Academy Awards\u00ae, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 9 February 2020 (Oscars).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Charlize Theron (Bombshell)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (Judy)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)","Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)","Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)","Charlize Theron (Bombshell)","Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (Judy)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (Judy)"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Supporting Actress?","Started_time":"2020-01-15","Closed_time":"2020-02-09","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 92nd Academy Awards\u00ae, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 9 February 2020 (Oscars).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Laura Dern (Marriage Story)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Florence Pugh (Little Women)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Margot Robbie (Bombshell)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)","Laura Dern (Marriage Story)","Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)","Florence Pugh (Little Women)","Margot Robbie (Bombshell)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Laura Dern (Marriage Story)"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Supporting Actor?","Started_time":"2020-01-15","Closed_time":"2020-02-09","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 92nd Academy Awards\u00ae, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 9 February 2020 (Oscars).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Al Pacino (The Irishman)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Joe Pesci (The Irishman)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)","Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)","Al Pacino (The Irishman)","Joe Pesci (The Irishman)","Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood)"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Actor?","Started_time":"2020-01-15","Closed_time":"2020-02-09","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 92nd Academy Awards\u00ae, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 9 February 2020 (Oscars).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Adam Driver (Marriage Story)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)","Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood)","Adam Driver (Marriage Story)","Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)","Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Directing?","Started_time":"2020-01-15","Closed_time":"2020-02-09","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 92nd Academy Awards\u00ae, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 9 February 2020 (Oscars).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Irishman (Martin Scorsese)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Joker (Todd Phillips)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"1917 (Sam Mendes)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Parasite (Bong Joon Ho)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The Irishman (Martin Scorsese)","Joker (Todd Phillips)","1917 (Sam Mendes)","Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)","Parasite (Bong Joon Ho)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Parasite (Bong Joon Ho)"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2020 Oscar\u00ae for Best Motion Picture of the Year?","Started_time":"2020-01-15","Closed_time":"2020-02-09","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 92nd Academy Awards\u00ae, known as the Oscars\u00ae, are scheduled for 9 February 2020 (Oscars).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ford v Ferrari":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The Irishman":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Jojo Rabbit":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Joker":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Little Women":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Marriage Story":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"1917":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Parasite":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Ford v Ferrari","The Irishman","Jojo Rabbit","Joker","Little Women","Marriage Story","1917","Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood","Parasite","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Parasite"}
{"Question":"When will fatalities caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) exceed those from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), according to the World Health Organization (WHO)?","Started_time":"2020-01-28","Closed_time":"2020-02-09","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak that began in late 2019 is drawing comparisons with the 2002-03 SARS outbreak, which killed 774 people (WHO, Who (SARS), NHS.uk, WHO (Coronavirus), The Hill). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 80 deaths caused by the Wuhan coronavirus (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO and inclusive of fatalities reported before this question's launch (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 15 February 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 15 February 2020 and 31 March 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2020 and 15 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 16 May 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 15 February 2020","Between 15 February 2020 and 31 March 2020","Between 1 April 2020 and 15 May 2020","Not before 16 May 2020"],"target":"Before 15 February 2020"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2020 BAFTA Award for Best Film?","Started_time":"2020-01-10","Closed_time":"2020-02-02","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The BAFTA Awards are scheduled for 2 February 2020 (Bafta.org).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"1917":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"The Irishman":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Joker":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Parasite":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["1917","The Irishman","Joker","Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood","Parasite","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"1917"}
{"Question":"Will Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era cease to be president of Chile before 1 February 2020?","Started_time":"2019-11-01","Closed_time":"2020-02-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Chilean President Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era's leadership is being challenged by street protests related to proposed increases in subway fares and other issues (MercoPress, Al Jazeera, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 February 2020, will the United Kingdom leave the European Union?","Started_time":"2019-11-01","Closed_time":"2020-01-31","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The United Kingdom is now scheduled to leave the European Union no later than 31 January 2020 (BBC, European Council, UK.gov, BBC). For more information on the negotiation and conclusion of a withdrawal agreement and the revocation or extension of the Article 50 period, see European Parliament and European Commission.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, with a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU in force":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Yes, without a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU in force":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No, with the UK revoking its invocation of Article 50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No, without the UK revoking its invocation of Article 50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, with a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU in force","Yes, without a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU in force","No, with the UK revoking its invocation of Article 50","No, without the UK revoking its invocation of Article 50"],"target":"Yes, with a Withdrawal Agreement with the EU in force"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 29 January 2020, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 11 December 2019?","Started_time":"2019-12-13","Closed_time":"2020-01-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Finance Forecasting Challenge","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Federal Reserve). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its January meeting is scheduled for 28-29 January 2020.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Grammy for Best New Artist?","Started_time":"2020-01-10","Closed_time":"2020-01-26","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2020 Grammy Awards are scheduled for 26 January 2020 (Grammy.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Black Pumas":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Billie Eilish":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"Lil Nas X":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Lizzo":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"Maggie Rogers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Rosal\u00eda":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tank and the Bangas":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yola":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Black Pumas","Billie Eilish","Lil Nas X","Lizzo","Maggie Rogers","Rosal\u00eda","Tank and the Bangas","Yola","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Billie Eilish"}
{"Question":"Which song will win the 2020 Grammy for Song of the Year?","Started_time":"2020-01-10","Closed_time":"2020-01-26","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2020 Grammy Awards are scheduled for 26 January 2020 (Grammy.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Always Remember Us This Way, Lady Gaga":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Bad Guy, Billie Eilish":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Bring My Flowers Now, Tanya Tucker":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Hard Place, H.E.R.":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Lover, Taylor Swift":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Norman F***ing Rockwell, Lana Del Ray":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Someone You Loved, Lewis Capaldi":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Truth Hurts, Lizzo":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Always Remember Us This Way, Lady Gaga","Bad Guy, Billie Eilish","Bring My Flowers Now, Tanya Tucker","Hard Place, H.E.R.","Lover, Taylor Swift","Norman F***ing Rockwell, Lana Del Ray","Someone You Loved, Lewis Capaldi","Truth Hurts, Lizzo","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Bad Guy, Billie Eilish"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Grammy for Record of the Year?","Started_time":"2020-01-10","Closed_time":"2020-01-26","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2020 Grammy Awards are scheduled for 26 January 2020 (Grammy.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Bon Iver, Hey Ma":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Billie Eilish, Bad Guy":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"},"Ariana Grande, 7 Rings":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"H.E.R., Hard Place":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Khalid, Talk":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, Old Town Road":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Lizzo, Truth Hurts":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Post Maline & Swae Lee, Sunflower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Bon Iver, Hey Ma","Billie Eilish, Bad Guy","Ariana Grande, 7 Rings","H.E.R., Hard Place","Khalid, Talk","Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, Old Town Road","Lizzo, Truth Hurts","Post Maline & Swae Lee, Sunflower","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Billie Eilish, Bad Guy"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Grammy for Album of the Year?","Started_time":"2020-01-10","Closed_time":"2020-01-26","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 2020 Grammy Awards are scheduled for 26 January 2020 (Grammy.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Bon Iver, I,I":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Lana Del Ray, Norman F***ing Rockwell!":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Billie Eilish, When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"},"Ariana Grande, Thank U, Next":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"H.E.R., I Used to Know Her":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Lil Nas X, 7":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Lizzo, Cuz I Love You":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Vampire Weekend, Father of the Bride":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Bon Iver, I,I","Lana Del Ray, Norman F***ing Rockwell!","Billie Eilish, When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?","Ariana Grande, Thank U, Next","H.E.R., I Used to Know Her","Lil Nas X, 7","Lizzo, Cuz I Love You","Vampire Weekend, Father of the Bride","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Billie Eilish, When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","Started_time":"2019-04-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society"],"Description":"The legal implications surrounding self-driving vehicles are of special interest to many stakeholders of the auto industry (Reuters, NY Times, The Atlantic, CNN, Popular Science). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, a firm":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, a paid backup driver":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, a firm","Yes, a paid backup driver","Yes, both","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series?","Started_time":"2019-12-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-19","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards are scheduled for 19 January 2020 (SAG-AFTRA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Patricia Arquette (The Act)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Toni Collette (Unbelievable)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Joey King (The Act)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Emily Watson (Chernobyl)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Michelle Williams (Fosse\/Verdon)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Patricia Arquette (The Act)","Toni Collette (Unbelievable)","Joey King (The Act)","Emily Watson (Chernobyl)","Michelle Williams (Fosse\/Verdon)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Michelle Williams (Fosse\/Verdon)"}
{"Question":"Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series?","Started_time":"2019-12-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-19","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards are scheduled for 19 January 2020 (SAG-AFTRA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Big Little Lies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"The Crown":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"Game of Thrones":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"The Handmaid's Tale":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Stranger Things":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Big Little Lies","The Crown","Game of Thrones","The Handmaid's Tale","Stranger Things","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"The Crown"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series?","Started_time":"2019-12-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-19","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards are scheduled for 19 January 2020 (SAG-AFTRA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Mahershala Ali (True Detective)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Russell Crowe (The Loudest Voice)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Jared Harris (Chernobyl)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"Jharrel Jerome (When They See Us)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"Sam Rockwell (Fosse\/Verdon)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Mahershala Ali (True Detective)","Russell Crowe (The Loudest Voice)","Jared Harris (Chernobyl)","Jharrel Jerome (When They See Us)","Sam Rockwell (Fosse\/Verdon)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Sam Rockwell (Fosse\/Verdon)"}
{"Question":"Which ensemble will win the 2020 Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series?","Started_time":"2019-12-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-19","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 26th Screen Actors Guild Awards are scheduled for 19 January 2020 (SAG-AFTRA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Barry":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Fleabag":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"The Kominsky Method":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Schitt's Creek":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["A tie or other outcome","Barry","Fleabag","The Kominsky Method","The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel","Schitt's Creek"],"target":"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the NFC Championship?","Started_time":"2020-01-03","Closed_time":"2020-01-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The NFC Championship game is scheduled for 19 January 2020 (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"San Francisco 49ers":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Green Bay Packers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"New Orleans Saints":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Philadelphia Eagles":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Seattle Seahawks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Minnesota Vikings":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["San Francisco 49ers","Green Bay Packers","New Orleans Saints","Philadelphia Eagles","Seattle Seahawks","Minnesota Vikings"],"target":"San Francisco 49ers"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?","Started_time":"2020-01-03","Closed_time":"2020-01-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The AFC Championship game is scheduled for 19 January 2020 (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Baltimore Ravens":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Kansas City Chiefs":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"New England Patriots":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Houston Texans":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Buffalo Bills":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tennessee Titans":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"}},"choices":["Baltimore Ravens","Kansas City Chiefs","New England Patriots","Houston Texans","Buffalo Bills","Tennessee Titans"],"target":"Kansas City Chiefs"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?","Started_time":"2018-11-16","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by California DMV data. Multiple companies have been approved to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in California (CA DMV, CA DMV, PLoS One). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and closed based on reports listed on 17 January 2020 to allow reports covering late December to be included.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 55":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 55 and 75, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 75 but less than 95":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 95 and 115, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 115":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 55","Between 55 and 75, inclusive","More than 75 but less than 95","Between 95 and 115, inclusive","More than 115"],"target":"Between 95 and 115, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 22 February and 31 December 2019, how many CRISPR gene-edited babies will be born?","Started_time":"2019-02-22","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"The gene-editing of human embryos is a controversial topic (BBC,\u00a0The Guardian). In November 2018, Chinese professor He Jiankui announced that genetically modified twins had been born in China (NPR, NY Times). There are reports that his work resulted in another pregnancy that was ongoing as of late January (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","More than 1"],"target":"1"}
{"Question":"Will Egypt\u2019s GDP growth rate for their 2016\/2017 fiscal year equal or exceed 5%?","Started_time":"2016-08-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will the registration deadline for Germany's ownership tax exemption for fully-electric vehicles be extended beyond 2020?","Started_time":"2019-02-15","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Currently, fully-electric vehicles registered in Germany between 18 May 2011 and 31 December 2020 are exempt from federal motor vehicle ownership tax (German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, German Central Customs Authority [in German], Evannex). While Germany had targeted getting one million EVs on the road by 2020, it recently announced a new target date of 2022 (Reuters, The European Automobile Manufacturers' Association).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will annual sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) be in China in 2019?","Started_time":"2019-01-18","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The Chinese government is promoting the use of vehicles that are partially or fully powered by alternative fuels and has set a target of reaching 2 million annual unit sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) by 2020; for more information on NEVs please see: Reuters, Quartz, Bloomberg, China Daily. The question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and will be closed when 2019 data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) are reported (e.g., CAAM, CAAM, Global Times, S&P Global, China Daily).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.25 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Between 1.25 million and 1.50 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than 1.50 million but less than 1.75 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.75 million and 2.0 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.00 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.25 million","Between 1.25 million and 1.50 million, inclusive","More than 1.50 million but less than 1.75 million","Between 1.75 million and 2.0 million, inclusive","More than 2.00 million"],"target":"Less than 1.25 million"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2020 College Football Playoff national championship?","Started_time":"2019-12-17","Closed_time":"2020-01-13","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The two semifinal games are scheduled for 28 December 2019, and the national championship game is scheduled for 13 January 2020 in New Orleans (NCAA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Clemson Tigers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"LSU Tigers":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"Ohio State Buckeyes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Oklahoma Sooners":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Clemson Tigers","LSU Tigers","Ohio State Buckeyes","Oklahoma Sooners"],"target":"LSU Tigers"}
{"Question":"How many seats in the Legislative Yuan will the Kuomintang party win in the next Taiwan parliamentary elections?","Started_time":"2019-11-22","Closed_time":"2020-01-11","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Elections for all 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan are scheduled for 11 January 2020. The Kuomingtang currently holds 35 seats (Economist, East Asia Forum).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 36 seats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"Between 36 and 42 seats":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Between 43 and 49 seats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Between 50 and 56 seats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 56 seats":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 36 seats","Between 36 and 42 seats","Between 43 and 49 seats","Between 50 and 56 seats","More than 56 seats"],"target":"Between 36 and 42 seats"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Taiwan presidential election?","Started_time":"2019-11-22","Closed_time":"2020-01-11","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The 2020 Taiwan presidential election is scheduled for 11 January 2020 (Economist, The News Lens, AP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Tsai Ing-wen":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Han Kuo-yu":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"James Soong":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Tsai Ing-wen","Han Kuo-yu","James Soong","Someone else"],"target":"Tsai Ing-wen"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing stock price of Johnson & Johnson on 31 December 2019?","Started_time":"2019-10-25","Closed_time":"2019-12-31","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health"],"Description":"Johnson & Johnson's stock price has come under pressure recently as legal troubles gain prominence, and New York Superforecasting workshop participants observed that several challenges remain to be faced in the near term (Bloomberg,\u00a0Johnson & Johnson, Stanford Law School, Bloomberg). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"$100.00 or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $100.00 but less than $110.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $110.00 and $120.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $120.00 but less than $130.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $130.00 and $140.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $140.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["$100.00 or less","More than $100.00 but less than $110.00","Between $110.00 and $120.00, inclusive","More than $120.00 but less than $130.00","Between $130.00 and $140.00, inclusive","More than $140.00"],"target":"More than $140.00"}
{"Question":"How many Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) will be registered in the UK in 2019, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?","Started_time":"2019-09-20","Closed_time":"2019-12-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Environment"],"Description":"Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) registrations in the UK have been at much lower levels in 2019 compared to 2018 (InsideEVs, AUTOCAR). This question will be resolved using the \"Year to date\" data table for all of 2019 from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders report released in January 2020, typically on the fourth working day of the month (SMMT).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 21,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 21,000 and 23,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 23,000 but less than 25,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 25,000 and 27,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 27,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 21,000","Between 21,000 and 23,000, inclusive","More than 23,000 but less than 25,000","Between 25,000 and 27,000, inclusive","More than 27,000"],"target":"More than 27,000"}
{"Question":"How many cases of measles will there be in the U.S. in 2019?","Started_time":"2019-06-07","Closed_time":"2019-12-29","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"The U.S. is facing one of its worst measles outbreaks in decades (BBC,\u00a0BBC,\u00a0BBC,\u00a0\u00a0HHS,\u00a0CNBC). There were 120 cases of measles in the US in 2017. This question will be resolved based on CDC data for 2019 as reported on 6 January 2020 (CDC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1,250":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,250 and 1,500, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than 1,500 but less than 1,750":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 1,750 and 2,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1,250","Between 1,250 and 1,500, inclusive","More than 1,500 but less than 1,750","Between 1,750 and 2,000, inclusive","More than 2,000"],"target":"Between 1,250 and 1,500, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings?","Started_time":"2018-12-21","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Revisions to the \"outlook\" will not suffice. S&P and Fitch last downgraded the United Kingdom after the 2016 Brexit vote, and Moody's did the same in September 2017 (The Associated Press, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 30 March 2019":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 30 March 2019 and 31 July 2019, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 August 2019 and 31 December 2019, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Not before 1 January 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Before 30 March 2019","Between 30 March 2019 and 31 July 2019, inclusive","Between 1 August 2019 and 31 December 2019, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2020"}
{"Question":"Between 14 June and 31 December 2019, will the World Health Organization confirm a case of Ebola outside the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda?","Started_time":"2019-06-14","Closed_time":"2019-12-30","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"An ongoing outbreak of Ebola, a deadly hemorrhagic fever, began in 2018 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (BBC, World Health Organization). Concerns that the outbreak would spread beyond the DRC were realized with cases in Uganda (BBC, World Health Organization). Other than Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo borders the following countries: Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Zambia. An infected patient being transported to another country for treatment will not count towards resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, a case only in a country that borders the DRC other than Uganda":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Yes, a case only in a country that does not border the DRC":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both a case in a country that borders the DRC other than Uganda and a different case in a country that does not border the DRC":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"}},"choices":["Yes, a case only in a country that borders the DRC other than Uganda","Yes, a case only in a country that does not border the DRC","Yes, both a case in a country that borders the DRC other than Uganda and a different case in a country that does not border the DRC","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Golden Globe for Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy?","Started_time":"2019-12-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-05","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The Golden Globes are scheduled for 5 January 2020 (Golden Globes).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ana de Armas (Knives Out)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Awkwafina (The Farewell)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Cate Blanchett (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Emma Thompson (Late Night)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Ana de Armas (Knives Out)","Awkwafina (The Farewell)","Cate Blanchett (Where'd You Go, Bernadette)","Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart)","Emma Thompson (Late Night)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Awkwafina (The Farewell)"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Golden Globe for Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy?","Started_time":"2019-12-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-05","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The Golden Globes are scheduled for 5 January 2020 (Golden Globes).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Daniel Craig (Knives Out)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"Taron Egerton (Rocketman)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Daniel Craig (Knives Out)","Roman Griffin Davis (Jojo Rabbit)","Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood)","Taron Egerton (Rocketman)","Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Taron Egerton (Rocketman)"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Golden Globe for Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama?","Started_time":"2019-12-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-05","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The Golden Globes are scheduled for 5 January 2020 (Golden Globes).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Adam Driver (Marriage Story)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari)","Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)","Adam Driver (Marriage Story)","Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)","Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2020 Golden Globe for Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama?","Started_time":"2019-12-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-05","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The Golden Globes are scheduled for 5 January 2020 (Golden Globes).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Charlize Theron (Bombshell)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (Judy)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)","Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)","Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)","Charlize Theron (Bombshell)","Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (Judy)","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Ren\u00e9e Zellweger (Judy)"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2020 Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy?","Started_time":"2019-12-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-05","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The Golden Globes are scheduled for 5 January 2020 (Golden Globes).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Dolemite Is My Name":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Jojo Rabbit":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Knives Out":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Rocketman":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Dolemite Is My Name","Jojo Rabbit","Knives Out","Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood","Rocketman","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2020 Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama?","Started_time":"2019-12-26","Closed_time":"2020-01-05","Challenges_list":["Red Carpet Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The Golden Globes are scheduled for 5 January 2020 (Golden Globes).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"1917":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"The Irishman":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"Joker":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Marriage Story":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"The Two Popes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"A tie or other outcome":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["1917","The Irishman","Joker","Marriage Story","The Two Popes","A tie or other outcome"],"target":"1917"}
{"Question":"When will a commercial flight of a Boeing 737 MAX aircraft next take off in the United States?","Started_time":"2019-06-28","Closed_time":"2019-12-30","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"After two fatal crashes in five months, regulators around the world grounded Boeing's 737 MAX aircraft pending further investigations (NPR, LA Times). When the plane might return to service has been the subject of much speculation (Business Insider, Simple Flying, USA Today, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2019":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2019","Between 1 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2020"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (Early Warning Project) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this..","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this..","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this..","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g. military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g. in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?","Started_time":"2018-09-28","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and will be resolved in October 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from October 2018 to September 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJO's FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2018 and 31 December 2019, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?","Started_time":"2018-11-16","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge","In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Technology","US Policy"],"Description":"Tesla's Model 3 deliveries continue to be an object of attention for industry observers (Tesla, Forbes, The Los Angeles Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"280,000 or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 280,000 but less than 330,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between 330,000 and 380,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"More than 380,000 but less than 430,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"430,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["280,000 or less","More than 280,000 but less than 330,000","Between 330,000 and 380,000, inclusive","More than 380,000 but less than 430,000","430,000 or more"],"target":"Between 330,000 and 380,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. President sign legislation increasing the number of exemptions for autonomous vehicles allowed per manufacturer by the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards?","Started_time":"2018-11-16","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","US Policy"],"Description":"A motor vehicle manufacturer may petition the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for an exemption for self-driving vehicles without human controls (The Fuse, Cornell Law). There is legislation under consideration that would increase the number of exemptions U.S. regulators are able to grant per manufacturer (S.1885 AV START Act, H.R.3388 - SELF DRIVE Act). Proponents say it would liberate innovation for self-driving vehicles while opponents say that it would place consumers under undue risk (Consumer Reports, Tom's Hardware, Competitive Enterprise Institute).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Serbia and Kosovo reach a comprehensive normalization agreement  before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2018-04-18","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The EU is pushing Serbia to reach a comprehensive normalization agreement with Kosovo by the end of 2019 (European Union External Action, Reuters, Radio Free Europe). The lack of progress on a normalization agreement remains a critical obstacle to EU accession (Prishtina Insight), which Serbia continues to seek despite it's ally Russia's reservations about the expansion process (Deutsche Welle).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will a NATO member formally invoke Article 4 or Article 5 of the Washington Treaty in response to actions taken by Russia?","Started_time":"2018-04-11","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Article 4 has been invoked a few times in the history of NATO (NATO, Radio Free Europe). Article 5 has been invoked just once (NATO, NY Times). If Article 4 or Article 5 is invoked for an event in which the perpetrator is initially unknown and NATO subsequently attributes that event to Russia, the question will close retroactively with the end date of the invocation.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will any change be made to the Russian Constitution that would allow Vladimir Putin to remain in a leadership role after his current term?","Started_time":"2018-04-11","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Russian Constitution limits presidents to two consecutive terms, but there has been speculation that future constitutional changes could allow Putin to remain in power past 2024 (Associated Press, NY Times). Examples of constitutional changes that could count include, but are not limited to, revised term limits or the creation of a new position or government body.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will Velodyne announce the release of a LiDAR unit with a maximum range of 400 meters or more?","Started_time":"2019-03-08","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"LiDAR, short for \"light radar\", has been called \"the most important piece of hardware in the race to unlock self-driving cars for everybody\" (Wired, Ars Technica, Design News). Velodyne is a leading company in the development of this type of technology. Its VLS-128, or Alpha Puck, released in 2017, has a maximum range of 300 meters (The Verge, News Atlas). Outcome will be determined by Velodyne's NewsRoom. The actual release of the LiDAR unit is not required for a yes resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 4 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, will anti-government protests in Hong Kong result in three or more fatalities?","Started_time":"2019-10-04","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Large anti-government protests, which began in June over a proposed extradition bill, have continued in 2019 (Time, NY Times, The Atlantic). Fatalities must all occur during the question's duration to qualify.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will legislation eliminating the unit limit per manufacturer for the U.S. federal electric vehicle tax credit become law before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2019-01-18","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","US Policy"],"Description":"The Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit applies to the first 200,000 units sold by a manufacturer (The IRS, Cornell Law). Tesla and GM each reached the unit limit in 2018 and are lobbying for the law to be changed (CNBC, Electrek).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will the UK and the EU adopt an agreement on which customs territory Northern Ireland will be located in after the end of any Brexit transition period?","Started_time":"2018-12-21","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The status of Northern Ireland after the planned Brexit has become a focal point of negotiations between the UK and the EU (BBC, European Commission). Adoption of a temporary (e.g., \"backstop\") or a permanent solution will count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Yes, the United Kingdom's customs territory only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, the European Union's customs territory only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, a single customs territory that includes both the European Union and the United Kingdom":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["No","Yes, the United Kingdom's customs territory only","Yes, the European Union's customs territory only","Yes, a single customs territory that includes both the European Union and the United Kingdom"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2018-12-07","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has used the People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some once posed as fishermen (Quartz, ChinaPower Project, The Diplomat, SCMP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will General Motors launch a ride-hailing service open to the public in the U.S. which uses autonomous vehicles?","Started_time":"2018-12-14","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"General Motors and its subsidiary Cruise Automation have announced intentions to launch a ride-hailing service somewhere in the U.S. in 2019 (GM Authority). GM plans to use a version of the Chevy Bolt built without a steering wheel for the service (Detroit News, Driven, IEEE Spectrum). However, technical and regulatory hurdles remain (Reuters, San Francisco Chronicle).  A service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use will count. A service that operates along a fixed route will not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, using only vehicles with steering wheels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, using only vehicles without steering wheels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, using at least some vehicles without steering wheels":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, using only vehicles with steering wheels","Yes, using only vehicles without steering wheels","Yes, using at least some vehicles without steering wheels","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) vote in favor of granting a waiver petition [GN Docket No. 18-357] to allow for the further deployment of Cellular Vehicle-to-Everything (C-V2X) technology?","Started_time":"2019-06-21","Closed_time":"2019-12-31","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"In November 2018, trade group 5G Automotive Association (5GAA) filed a petition with the FCC to waive certain restrictions related to the deployment of C-V2X communications technology, GN Docket No. 18-357 (FCC, 5GAA). Various businesses and organizations have taken sides while the FCC reviews the waiver petition (Fierce Wireless, FCC,\u00a0Fierce Wireless, New Mobility). The granting of this waiver petition is understood to be of importance in the \"DSRC vs. C-V2X standards battle\" (Innovation Destination, All About Circuits, Viodi). Only a vote in favor of granting waiver petition GN Docket No. 18-357, in whole or in part, would count toward a Yes resolution. Should the FCC not make a decision before 31 December 2019, the question will close No.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will Tesla release an Autopilot feature designed\u00a0to navigate traffic lights?","Started_time":"2019-01-18","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"Tesla CEO Elon Musk has expressed interest in adding a feature to navigate city streets, including traffic lights (Ars Technica, The Drive).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the price of regular gasoline in the U.S. per gallon on 30 December 2019?","Started_time":"2019-04-26","Closed_time":"2019-12-30","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Gas prices are seen as a driver for the adoption of electric vehicles (Auto Finance News). Outcome will be determined by the U.S. Regular Gasoline price reported by the Energy Information Administration.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $2.400":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $2.400 and $2.650, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than $2.650 but less than $2.900":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $2.900 and $3.150, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $3.150":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $2.400","Between $2.400 and $2.650, inclusive","More than $2.650 but less than $2.900","Between $2.900 and $3.150, inclusive","More than $3.150"],"target":"Between $2.400 and $2.650, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2019-10-02","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"UK prime minister Boris Johnson faces a number of leadership challenges as he attempts to navigate Brexit (BBC, BBC, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, someone from the Conservative Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, someone from the Labour Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, someone from a party other than the Conservative or Labour Parties":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, someone from the Conservative Party","Yes, someone from the Labour Party","Yes, someone from a party other than the Conservative or Labour Parties","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 5 July 2019 and 31 December 2019, will McDonald's announce that it will offer an alternative protein vegetarian burger in the United States?","Started_time":"2019-07-05","Closed_time":"2019-12-30","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Health","Environment"],"Description":"As competitors have introduced vegetarian and vegan burgers in the United States, and McDonald's itself has done so in Europe, there is growing interest in developments for the U.S. market (McDonalds, Business Insider, CNBC, YouTube, Entrepreneur, Fortune, Mercury News, Readers Digest).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will either SpaceX or Boeing launch its first crewed space mission?","Started_time":"2019-02-22","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society"],"Description":"For nearly a decade commercial enterprises have competed to partner with NASA, and both SpaceX and Boeing have been expected to be certified for their first crewed space missions in 2019 (NASA, CNET, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Yes, only SpaceX":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only Boeing":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both SpaceX and Boeing":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["No","Yes, only SpaceX","Yes, only Boeing","Yes, both SpaceX and Boeing"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will any EU member state besides the UK set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone?","Started_time":"2019-01-04","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days","In The News 2019","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The EU continues to face a number of challenges, including populism and debt crises in a number of member states (The Telegraph, The London School of Economics, Ekathimerini, Marketwatch). The referendum date is immaterial to the question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Ruth Bader Ginsburg cease to be an Associate Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2019-01-04","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics"],"Description":"Ruth Bader Ginsburg was appointed to the Supreme Court in 1993, and has expressed her intent to remain on the Court through at least 2020 (CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2018-12-07","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"After multiple ICBM launches in 2017, North Korea's missile program has been comparatively quiet throughout 2018 (CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Mick Mulvaney cease to be White House Chief of Staff before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2019-01-18","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"In December 2018, President Trump announced that Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney would replace, in an acting capacity, outgoing Chief of Staff John Kelly (CNN). For the purposes of this question, Mulvaney will be considered the Chief of Staff whether in a permanent or acting capacity (Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela?","Started_time":"2018-12-21","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"President Maduro faces an ongoing political and economic crisis in Venezuela (Fortune, The Washington Post, Miami Herald).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 April 2019":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2019 and 30 June 2019, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2019 and 30 September 2019, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 April 2019","Between 1 April 2019 and 30 June 2019, inclusive","Between 1 July 2019 and 30 September 2019, inclusive","Between 1 October 2019 and 31 December 2019, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2020"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2020"}
{"Question":"Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2018-12-07","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: BBC, NY Times.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2019-01-04","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still holds power despite a civil war that has lasted years and caused much destruction (CNN, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping sign a trade agreement before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2019-11-08","Closed_time":"2020-01-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"Despite Chile's cancellation of the Asia Pacific Economic Corridor summit, there remains optimism that China and the United States will soon sign a trade agreement of some sort (Diplomat, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, Japan Times). As of this question's launch on 8 November 2019, a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports is scheduled to go into effect 15 December 2019 (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 31 December 2019, will a Model 3 produced in Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory 3 be delivered to a customer?","Started_time":"2019-09-20","Closed_time":"2019-12-29","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"Tesla's Gigafactory 3, located in Shanghai, China, is an object of great attention for industry observers (TESLARATI, Asia Times, TESLARATI, Electrek, InsideEVs).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 February 2020, will Ukraine adopt a new law giving or extending Donbas special status for local self-government?","Started_time":"2019-11-22","Closed_time":"2019-12-18","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In 2014, a special status for local self-government was granted to the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (Economist, Kyiv Post). In 2018, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada adopted bill No. 9153 extending the law governing Donbas' special status through 31 December 2019 (Unian). Russia wants to see Ukrainian constitution amended to encapsulate the special status, however, Ukraine contends a new version of the law reflecting new realities is necessary (Atlantic Council, UKRINFORM, Unian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 20 December 2019, will the U.S. Congress present the president with legislation banning the manufacture, possession, and\/or sale of high capacity magazines for firearms?","Started_time":"2019-08-23","Closed_time":"2019-12-20","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"In the wake of mass shootings in California, Ohio, and Texas, there has been increased political pressure for various gun control measures (Newsweek, CNBC). President Trump's potential support for particular gun control measures is a matter of speculation (The Hill, Axios, CNN). For the purposes of this question, a \"high capacity magazine\" is one capable of holding more than ten rounds. A ban need not cover all high capacity magazines to count toward resolution of the question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the president will sign it before 1 January 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, and the president will veto it before 1 January 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, and the president will neither sign nor veto it before 1 January 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the president will sign it before 1 January 2020","Yes, and the president will veto it before 1 January 2020","Yes, and the president will neither sign nor veto it before 1 January 2020","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the United States experience two consecutive quarters of a negative real GDP growth rate in 2019?","Started_time":"2019-01-04","Closed_time":"2019-12-20","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis releases three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third, and the release dates for 2019 can be found here: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This question will be resolved based on the third estimates for Q1, Q2, and Q3, typically released 3 months after the end of each quarter, and the advance estimate for Q4, expected in mid-January 2020. The third estimate for Q3 2018 indicated that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The last time the quarter-on-quarter U.S. GDP growth rate was negative was Q1 2014 (The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the UK prime minister or chancellor of the exchequer announce the government's choice for the next governor of the Bank of England?","Started_time":"2019-11-22","Closed_time":"2019-12-20","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2020"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"The new governor of the Bank of England is expected to take office on 1 February 2020, though an announcement of the government's intended appointee has been delayed (Economist, NY Times, Parliament.uk). The prime minister and the chancellor of the exchequer advise the monarch, who officially appoints the governor of the Bank of England (Cabinetoffice.gov.uk, Gov.uk). An announcement for either a new term or extension of the current term for Governor Mark Carney would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2020":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 January 2020 and 31 January 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 February 2020 and 29 February 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 March 2020":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2020","Between 1 January 2020 and 31 January 2020","Between 1 February 2020 and 29 February 2020","Not before 1 March 2020"],"target":"Before 1 January 2020"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2020, will the U.S. House of Representatives pass an article of impeachment against President Trump?","Started_time":"2019-10-18","Closed_time":"2019-12-19","Challenges_list":["In the News 2020","Global Judgment Challenge 2019","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"In September 2019, Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry into President Trump (CNN, BBC, NPR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Algeria hold a presidential election on 12 December 2019?","Started_time":"2019-10-18","Closed_time":"2019-12-12","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After President Abdulaziz Bouteflika resigned in April 2019, an election was scheduled for 4 July 2019 but was later canceled; a new election date has been set for 12 December 2019 (Al Jazeera, France24, Reuters, Global Voices). The National Liberation Front (FLN) is the party of Bouteflika (Britannica). If an election is held, the question will resolve on first round election results.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and a candidate who is a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"Yes, and a candidate who is not a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, and a candidate who is a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes","Yes, and a candidate who is not a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes","No"],"target":"Yes, and a candidate who is a member of the National Liberation Front (FLN) party will receive the most votes"}
{"Question":"How many of the following 10 marginal seats in the House of Commons will change parties in the upcoming 2019 UK elections?","Started_time":"2019-11-15","Closed_time":"2019-12-12","Challenges_list":["YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The 10 marginal seats relevant to the resolution of this question follow below (Guardian). For the purposes of this question, each seat is considered to be held by a party as listed.Conservative Party marginal seats (3): Hastings and Rye; Richmond Park; CheltenhamScottish Nationalist Party marginal seats (1): North East FifeLabour Party marginal seats (5): Canterbury; Workington; Bolsover; Kensington; Crewe and NantwitchLiberal Democrat Party marginal seats (1): Brecon and Radnorshire","Possible_Answers_dict":{"None":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1 or 2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"3 or 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"},"5 or 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"7 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"}},"choices":["None","1 or 2","3 or 4","5 or 6","7 or more"],"target":"7 or more"}
{"Question":"At close of business on 12 December 2019, will the European Central Bank's (ECB's) deposit facility rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 24 October 2019?","Started_time":"2019-10-25","Closed_time":"2019-12-12","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"The deposit facility rate defines the interest banks receive for depositing money with the central bank overnight (ECB, ECB (Rates)). The deposit facility rate is one of the three interest rates the ECB sets every six weeks as part of its monetary policy. Its December monetary meeting is scheduled for 12 December 2019 (ECB (Calendar)).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Same":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Lower","Same","Higher"],"target":"Same"}
{"Question":"Will a political party gain an overall majority of seats in the House of Commons at the next UK General Election?","Started_time":"2019-10-30","Closed_time":"2019-12-12","Challenges_list":["YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The next UK General Election is planned for 12 December 2019 (BBC, BBC, BBC, Financial Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, the Conservative Party":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"},"Yes, the Labour Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, a political party not listed above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No political party will gain an overall majority":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"}},"choices":["Yes, the Conservative Party","Yes, the Labour Party","Yes, a political party not listed above","No political party will gain an overall majority"],"target":"Yes, the Conservative Party"}
{"Question":"On 10 December 2019, how many total locations with Combined Charging System (CCS) fast chargers will be installed in the European area?","Started_time":"2018-12-14","Closed_time":"2019-12-10","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations (Reuters, Inside EVs). Europe has gone from zero Combined Charging System (CCS) fast charger locations in 2014 to 5,712 as of 14 December 2018. This question will be suspended on 9 December 2019 and closed using the total installed charger locations listed on 10 December 2019 from the \"CCS Charge Map \u2013 Europe\" website. If during the question's open period the source adds additional countries to the European area list, they will count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 7,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between 9,000 and 9,999, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"10,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 7,000","Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive","Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive","Between 9,000 and 9,999, inclusive","10,000 or more"],"target":"Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 5 July 2019 and 30 November 2019, how many Category 4 or above hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean according to the National Hurricane Center?","Started_time":"2019-07-05","Closed_time":"2019-11-30","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Environment"],"Description":"After a highly destructive 2018 hurricane season, a lot of attention is being paid to the 2019 hurricane season and beyond (BBC, NOAA, BBC, CNN, USA Today, ABC News, Guardian). This question will resolve based on available categorizations as of 9 December 2019 by the National Hurricane Center (NOAA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"2"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Phillipines from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Central African Republic from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 March 2018 and will be resolved in January 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Philippines from January 2018 through December 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See here for GJ\u00cds FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?","Started_time":"2017-12-28","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (The EWP). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (EWP) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2018-2019)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (The EWP). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2018 and will be resolved in July 2019 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from July 2018 to June 2019. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (EWP) for examples. See (GJOpen) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2018-06-27","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Philippines from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from October 2017 through September 2018.. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from October 2017 through September 2018.. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from October 2017 through September 2018.. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?","Started_time":"2017-09-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be resolved in October 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from October 2017 through September 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in South Sudan from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Democratic Republic of the Congo from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Central African Republic from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Philippines from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?","Started_time":"2017-06-30","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Imran Khan cease to be prime minister of Pakistan before 8 December 2019?","Started_time":"2019-11-08","Closed_time":"2019-12-08","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Prime Minister Khan faces ongoing political and economic crises in Pakistan, including mass demonstrations demanding his resignation (Al Jazeera, France24, Deutsche Welle, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 20 September 2019 and 6 December 2019, will the closing price for Brent crude oil exceed $75.00, according to Bloomberg?","Started_time":"2019-09-20","Closed_time":"2019-12-07","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined by the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg: Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Zimbabwe from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Bangladesh from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Ethiopia from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Turkey from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Pakistan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g. military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g. in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Mali from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Burundi from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Afghanistan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Nigeria from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Yemen from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Sudan from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?","Started_time":"2017-03-31","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Myanmar from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the domestic box office gross in the opening week for Disney's Frozen 2, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2019-10-11","Closed_time":"2019-11-22","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Business","Entertainment"],"Description":"Frozen 2 is the sequel to Frozen from 2013, which brought in over $1.2 billion worldwide (IMDB, BoxOfficeMojo, \/Film). The film is scheduled to be released on 22 November 2019, and the outcome will be determined with \"Weekly Box Office\" data for the week of 22 November to 28 November as reported by Box Office Mojo (BoxOfficeMojo).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $125,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $125,000,000 and $150,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $150,000,000 but less than $175,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Between $175,000,000 and $200,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"More than $200,000,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"}},"choices":["Less than $125,000,000","Between $125,000,000 and $150,000,000, inclusive","More than $150,000,000 but less than $175,000,000","Between $175,000,000 and $200,000,000, inclusive","More than $200,000,000"],"target":"More than $200,000,000"}
{"Question":"Between 12 August 2019 and 30 November 2019, will Russia and Iran conduct any joint naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz?","Started_time":"2019-08-12","Closed_time":"2019-12-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Possible joint naval exercises between Russia and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz have been announced for sometime this year, against the backdrop of increasing tensions in the region (National Interest, Newsweek, TASS).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be The We Company's (WeWork's parent company) end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering (IPO)?","Started_time":"2019-09-06","Closed_time":"2019-11-30","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"The We Company (WeWork's parent company), a firm that provides shared workspaces and commercial space to its clients among other services, publicly filed for an IPO in August 2019 (The We Company, SEC, CNBC, Business Insider, Forbes, Bloomberg). The outcome of this question will be determined by the end-of-day Market Capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $10 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $10 billion and $25 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $25 billion but less than $40 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$40 billion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The We Company will not have an IPO before 30 November 2019":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than $10 billion","Between $10 billion and $25 billion, inclusive","More than $25 billion but less than $40 billion","$40 billion or more","The We Company will not have an IPO before 30 November 2019"],"target":"The We Company will not have an IPO before 30 November 2019"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Mexican peso on 29 November 2019?","Started_time":"2019-02-08","Closed_time":"2019-11-29","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg at https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/USDMXN:CUR.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than Mex$17.5000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between Mex$17.5000 and Mex$18.5000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than Mex$18.5000 but less than Mex$19.5000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Between Mex$19.5000 and Mex$20.5000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"More than Mex$20.5000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than Mex$17.5000","Between Mex$17.5000 and Mex$18.5000, inclusive","More than Mex$18.5000 but less than Mex$19.5000","Between Mex$19.5000 and Mex$20.5000, inclusive","More than Mex$20.5000"],"target":"Between Mex$19.5000 and Mex$20.5000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many seats in the Congress of Deputies will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) win in the next Spanish general election?","Started_time":"2019-09-27","Closed_time":"2019-11-10","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The next Spanish general election is scheduled for 10 November 2019 and all 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies are to be contested (Economist, The Guardian, El Pais [in Spanish]). PSOE won 123 seats in the Congress of Deputies in the April 2019 general election but was not able to form a government, leading to the November 2019 elections (El Pais, Euronews, El Pais).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 108":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 108 and 120, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"More than 120 but less than 132":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Between 132 and 144, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 144":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 108","Between 108 and 120, inclusive","More than 120 but less than 132","Between 132 and 144, inclusive","More than 144"],"target":"Between 108 and 120, inclusive"}
{"Question":"On 26 November 2019, will Chile be under a state of emergency?","Started_time":"2019-11-01","Closed_time":"2019-11-26","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Chilean President Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era declared a state of emergency on 19 October 2019 in response to protests related to proposed increases in subway fares and other issues (Financial Times, Al Jazeera, Time, Chile Library of Congress\u00a0[in Spanish]). The state of emergency was lifted on 27 October 2019, but protests continue (Yahoo, CNN). The state of emergency does not need to be nationwide to resolve the question as \"Yes.\" Chile being under a state of siege on 26 November 2019 would also count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What book will win the 2019 National Book Award for fiction?","Started_time":"2019-10-15","Closed_time":"2019-11-20","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The National Book Awards are annual literary awards for different categories of writing, including fiction, with five finalists going into the awards ceremony scheduled for 20 November 2019 (National Book Foundation, NPR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Trust Exercise by Susan Choi":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Sabrina & Corina: Stories by Kali Fajardo-Anstine":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Black Leopard, Red Wolf by Marlon James":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"The Other Americans by Laila Lalami":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Disappearing Earth by Julia Phillips":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"}},"choices":["Trust Exercise by Susan Choi","Sabrina & Corina: Stories by Kali Fajardo-Anstine","Black Leopard, Red Wolf by Marlon James","The Other Americans by Laila Lalami","Disappearing Earth by Julia Phillips"],"target":"Trust Exercise by Susan Choi"}
{"Question":"What book will win the 2019 National Book Award for nonfiction?","Started_time":"2019-10-15","Closed_time":"2019-11-20","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The National Book Awards are annual literary awards for different categories of writing, including nonfiction, with five finalists going into the awards ceremony scheduled for 20 November 2019 (National Book Foundation, NPR).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Yellow House by Sarah M. Broom":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Thick: And Other Essays by Tressie McMillan Cottom":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"What You Have Heard is True: A Memoir of Witness and Resistance by Carolyn Forch\u00e9":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"The Heartbeat of Wounded Knee: Native America from 1890 to the Present by David Treuer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Solitary by Albert Woodfox with Leslie George":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"}},"choices":["The Yellow House by Sarah M. Broom","Thick: And Other Essays by Tressie McMillan Cottom","What You Have Heard is True: A Memoir of Witness and Resistance by Carolyn Forch\u00e9","The Heartbeat of Wounded Knee: Native America from 1890 to the Present by David Treuer","Solitary by Albert Woodfox with Leslie George"],"target":"The Yellow House by Sarah M. Broom"}
{"Question":"Between 25 October 2019 and 20 November 2019, how many candidates for the Democratic nomination for president of the United States will cease to be candidates?","Started_time":"2019-10-25","Closed_time":"2019-11-20","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"As of 25 October 2019, the 18 Democratic candidates relevant to this question are: Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg, Juli\u00e1n Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Wayne Messam, Beto O\u2019Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Joe Sestak, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang (NY Times). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"None":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"One or two":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Three or four":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Five or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["None","One or two","Three or four","Five or more"],"target":"One or two"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2019 Bolivian presidential election?","Started_time":"2019-10-04","Closed_time":"2019-10-20","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Bolivian general elections are scheduled for 20 October 2019, with a runoff scheduled for 15 December 2019 if needed (Americas Society\/Council of the Americas). Incumbent President Evo Morales is running for a fourth consecutive term after the Supreme Electoral Court ruled in 2018 that term limits were unconstitutional (Al Jazeera, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Carlos Mesa":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Evo Morales":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"\u00d3scar Ortiz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"None of these":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Carlos Mesa","Evo Morales","\u00d3scar Ortiz","None of these"],"target":"Evo Morales"}
{"Question":"Before 15 November 2019, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and Saudi Arabia either in Iran or at sea?","Started_time":"2019-09-18","Closed_time":"2019-11-15","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil and gas infrastructure have further aggravated regional tensions in the Middle East (Al Jazeera, CNN). While Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility, accusations have been levied against (and denied by) Iran (BBC, CNBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 15 November 2019, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","Started_time":"2019-09-18","Closed_time":"2019-11-15","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil and gas infrastructure have further aggravated regional tensions in the Middle East (Al Jazeera,\u00a0CNN). While Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility, accusations have been levied against (and denied by) Iran (BBC,\u00a0CNBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Louisiana in the 2019 gubernatorial election?","Started_time":"2019-08-30","Closed_time":"2019-11-16","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The first round of the 2019 gubernatorial election is scheduled for 12 October 2019, with a runoff election scheduled for 16 November 2019 as needed (Louisiana Sec. of State). Republicans Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone, among others, are running against incumbent Democrat John Bel Edwards (News Star).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ralph Abraham (Republican)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"John Bel Edwards (Democrat)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Eddie Rispone (Republican)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Ralph Abraham (Republican)","John Bel Edwards (Democrat)","Eddie Rispone (Republican)","None of the above"],"target":"John Bel Edwards (Democrat)"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Kentucky in the 2019 gubernatorial election?","Started_time":"2019-08-30","Closed_time":"2019-11-05","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Kentucky gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on 5 November 2019. Democratic nominee Andy Beshear is running against incumbent Republican nominee Matt Bevin (RealClearPolitics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Andy Beshear (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Andy Beshear (Democrat) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Matt Bevin (Republican) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"},"Matt Bevin (Republican) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Andy Beshear (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote","Andy Beshear (Democrat) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote","Matt Bevin (Republican) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote","Matt Bevin (Republican) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote","None of the above"],"target":"Andy Beshear (Democrat) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote"}
{"Question":"What percentage of all domestic U.S. equity funds will be outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index for the one-year period ending 30 June 2019?","Started_time":"2018-11-16","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the S&P Dow Jones Indices' SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2019 Scorecard, typically published in September. For the one-year period ending 30 June 2018, 57.98% of all domestic U.S. equity funds were outperformed by the S&P Composite 1500 index. The relevant figure for 2018 can be found on page 4 of the SPIVA U.S. Mid-Year 2018 Scorecard, in the table labeled Report 1, first row, \"All Domestic Funds\". Published reports can be found here.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 40.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 40.00% and 60.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"More than 60.00% but less than 80.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"80.00% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Less than 40.00%","Between 40.00% and 60.00%, inclusive","More than 60.00% but less than 80.00%","80.00% or more"],"target":"More than 60.00% but less than 80.00%"}
{"Question":"What will be Saudi Arabia's crude oil production for October 2019, according to OPEC?","Started_time":"2019-09-20","Closed_time":"2019-11-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Business","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Recent attacks on oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia have raised questions about the short- and medium-term impacts on oil production by OPEC's largest member (CNN). The question will be resolved using monthly data for \"Saudi Arabia\" reported in the \"OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb\/d\" table of the \"World Oil Supply\" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC). In the August 2019 report, the relevant data can be found in Table 5.9 on page 60 in the document (OPEC). That report shows Saudi Arabia produced 9,698 thousand barrels per day (tb\/d) in July 2019. The question will be suspended on 31 October 2019 and closed when the October data are released, typically in November.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 7,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7,000 tb\/d to 8,000 tb\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 8,000 tb\/d and less than 9,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 9,000 tb\/d to 10,000 tb\/d, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than 10,000 tb\/d":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 7,000 tb\/d","Between 7,000 tb\/d to 8,000 tb\/d, inclusive","More than 8,000 tb\/d and less than 9,000 tb\/d","Between 9,000 tb\/d to 10,000 tb\/d, inclusive","More than 10,000 tb\/d"],"target":"Between 9,000 tb\/d to 10,000 tb\/d, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the percentage change in average UK house prices over the 12-month period to September 2019?","Started_time":"2019-01-24","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Brexit process is creating uncertainty for house prices in the UK (BBC). Outcome will be determined by the UK House Price Index for September 2019, six months after the date when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. This question will be suspended on 30 September 2019 and resolved when data are reported by the Office for National Statistics, expected in mid-November 2019 (GOV.UK). The November 2018 UK House Price Index, which shows the percentage change over the 12-month period to November 2018 as 2.8%, can be found here.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than -3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between -3.0% and -1.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"More than -1.0% but less than 1.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"More than 3.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than -3.0%","Between -3.0% and -1.0%, inclusive","More than -1.0% but less than 1.0%","Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive","More than 3.0%"],"target":"Between 1.0% and 3.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which party will win control of the Virginia Senate in the 2019 elections?","Started_time":"2019-09-06","Closed_time":"2019-11-05","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Virginia Senate is the upper house of the state's legislature (Virginia Senate). All 40 Senate seats are up in this election, scheduled for 5 November 2019 (Virginia Mercury). If control of the chamber is dependent upon a run-off or a recount, the question will remain suspended as scheduled and resolve when the outcome is known.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Democrats":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"Republicans":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"}},"choices":["Democrats","Republicans"],"target":"Democrats"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Mississippi in the 2019 gubernatorial election?","Started_time":"2019-08-30","Closed_time":"2019-11-05","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Mississippi gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place on 5 November 2019. Democratic nominee Jim Hood is running against Republican nominee Tate Reeves (RealClearPolitics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jim Hood (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Jim Hood (Democrat) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Tate Reeves (Republican) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Tate Reeves (Republican) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Jim Hood (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote","Jim Hood (Democrat) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote","Tate Reeves (Republican) by a margin of 5.00% or less of the total vote","Tate Reeves (Republican) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote","None of the above"],"target":"Tate Reeves (Republican) by a margin greater than 5.00% of the total vote"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value for the pound against the euro on 1 November 2019?","Started_time":"2019-06-07","Closed_time":"2019-10-31","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The Brexit process introduces uncertainty for the pound (BBC, Reuters). Outcome will be determined by the closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Below 1.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 1.00 and 1.10, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"More than 1.10 but less than 1.20":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.30":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Below 1.00","Between 1.00 and 1.10, inclusive","More than 1.10 but less than 1.20","Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive","More than 1.30"],"target":"More than 1.10 but less than 1.20"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2019 Rugby World Cup?","Started_time":"2019-10-22","Closed_time":"2019-11-02","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Foxes Ask"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 2019 Rugby World Cup final is scheduled for 2 November 2019 in Yokohama, Japan (Rugby World Cup,\u00a0Telegraph, Super Sport, Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"England":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"},"New Zealand":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"South Africa":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Wales":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["England","New Zealand","South Africa","Wales"],"target":"South Africa"}
{"Question":"Before 1 November 2019, will the U.S. Congress ratify the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)?","Started_time":"2019-05-17","Closed_time":"2019-10-31","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"On 30 November 2018, President Donald Trump, Mexican President Enrique Pe\u00f1a Nieto, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed the USMCA, a trade deal intended to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2018\/11\/30\/672150010\/usmca-trump-signs-new-trade-agreement-with-mexico-and-canada, https:\/\/ustr.gov\/trade-agreements\/free-trade-agreements\/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement\/agreement-between). The legislatures of all three nations must ratify the deal before taking effect. President Trump wants the agreement ratified this summer, but the deal faces detractors in Congress (https:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2019\/04\/18\/nafta-boost-economy-1367825, https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2019\/03\/29\/trumps-nafta-usmca-trade-deal-faces-bipartisan-roadblock-in-congress.html, https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-trade-canada\/mexico-says-it-is-close-to-us-metals-tariff-deal-waiting-for-canada-idUSKCN1SL240). For the purposes of this question, the USMCA will be deemed ratified upon final passage by both houses of Congress.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 11 September 2019 and 31 October 2019, what will be the widest closing spread of the yield on 10-year Treasurys below the yield on 2-year Treasurys?","Started_time":"2019-09-11","Closed_time":"2019-11-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"When interest rates on longer term debt drop below rates on shorter term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia, CNBC, Reuters). The outcome will be determined using Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate data provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury by comparing the value in the \"2 Yr\" column with the value in the \"10 Yr\" column for each day (U.S. Department of the Treasury).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The 10 yr yield will not close at or lower than the 2 yr yield":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"The 10 Yr yield closing between .01 and .10 lower than the 2 Yr yield, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The 10 Yr yield closing more than .10 lower than the 2 Yr yield":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The 10 yr yield will not close at or lower than the 2 yr yield","The 10 Yr yield closing between .01 and .10 lower than the 2 Yr yield, inclusive","The 10 Yr yield closing more than .10 lower than the 2 Yr yield"],"target":"The 10 yr yield will not close at or lower than the 2 yr yield"}
{"Question":"Will the United Kingdom (UK) leave the European Union (EU) on or before 31 October 2019?","Started_time":"2019-09-11","Closed_time":"2019-10-31","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Superforecasting\u00ae Workshops Challenge","Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After agreeing to an extension of the two-year Article 50 period in both March and April 2019, the UK is currently scheduled to leave the EU no later than 31 October 2019, though political battles over Brexit continue in the House of Commons (Europa, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 November 2019, will Judy Shelton and\/or Christopher Waller be confirmed by the Senate for the Federal Reserve Board?","Started_time":"2019-07-19","Closed_time":"2019-10-31","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"After two earlier prospective Fed picks dropped out of contention, President Trump announced his intention to nominate economists Judy Shelton and Christopher Waller to fill vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors (BBC, The Hill, Roll Call).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Judy Shelton":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only Christopher Waller":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, the Senate will confirm both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No, the Senate will confirm neither":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Judy Shelton","Yes, only Christopher Waller","Yes, the Senate will confirm both","No, the Senate will confirm neither"],"target":"No, the Senate will confirm neither"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value of the S&P\/TSX Composite Index on 31 October 2019?","Started_time":"2019-04-19","Closed_time":"2019-10-31","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 15,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15,000.00 and 16,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 16,000.00 but less than 17,000.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 17,000.00 and 18,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 18,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 15,000.00","Between 15,000.00 and 16,000.00, inclusive","More than 16,000.00 but less than 17,000.00","Between 17,000.00 and 18,000.00, inclusive","More than 18,000.00"],"target":"More than 16,000.00 but less than 17,000.00"}
{"Question":"When will Denmark approve the construction of Nord Stream 2 through its territorial waters or Exclusive Economic Zone?","Started_time":"2019-02-22","Closed_time":"2019-10-30","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Denmark is the last country still to complete its national permit procedure for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline (Euractiv, The Economist, Nord Stream 2, Reuters)..","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 June 2019":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 June and 31 August 2019, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 September and 30 November 2019, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Not before 1 December 2019":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Before 1 June 2019","Between 1 June and 31 August 2019, inclusive","Between 1 September and 30 November 2019, inclusive","Not before 1 December 2019"],"target":"Between 1 September and 30 November 2019, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 3 May 2019 and 1 November 2019, which of the following will happen first in relation to the Brexit process?","Started_time":"2019-05-03","Closed_time":"2019-10-28","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After an initial extension to 12 April, Brexit has been postponed to 31 October,\u00a0 increasing uncertainty around what will happen next in the process (https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-politics-46393399, https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/media\/39042\/10-euco-art50-conclusions-en.pdf,https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-politics-32810887). For more on the November 2018 Withdrawal Agreement, please see: https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-46237012 and https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commission\/sites\/beta-political\/files\/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The UK will leave the EU with the November 2018 Withdrawal Agreement in place":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The UK will leave the EU with a new or renegotiated version of a Withdrawal Agreement in place":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"The UK will leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement in place":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"The UK will revoke Article 50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The UK's Article 50 period will be extended beyond 31 October 2019":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"The UK will set a date for a General Election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"The UK will set a date for a referendum on Brexit":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The UK will leave the EU with the November 2018 Withdrawal Agreement in place","The UK will leave the EU with a new or renegotiated version of a Withdrawal Agreement in place","The UK will leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement in place","The UK will revoke Article 50","The UK's Article 50 period will be extended beyond 31 October 2019","The UK will set a date for a General Election","The UK will set a date for a referendum on Brexit"],"target":"The UK's Article 50 period will be extended beyond 31 October 2019"}
{"Question":"Will Justin Trudeau cease to be prime minister of Canada after the next federal election?","Started_time":"2019-01-18","Closed_time":"2019-10-22","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held on 21 October 2019 (CTV News, Maclean's). The question will close as \"no\" if, once the election outcome is known, Trudeau retains the prime ministership.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will the Italy-Germany 10-year bond spread be on 20 October 2019?","Started_time":"2019-06-07","Closed_time":"2019-10-19","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Projections of an expanding Italian budget deficit will likely see tensions continue between Brussels and Rome (CNBC,\u00a0Financial Times,\u00a0Reuters,\u00a0Bloomberg,\u00a0Reuters). Eurozone member states must submit their Draft Budget Plans for the following year by 15 October (EC). The question will be resolved using \"Spread vs bund\" as reported by the Financial Times on Sunday 20 October 2019 (Financial Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.30":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 2.30 and 2.70, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.70 but less than 3.10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.10 and 3.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.30","Between 2.30 and 2.70, inclusive","More than 2.70 but less than 3.10","Between 3.10 and 3.50, inclusive","More than 3.50"],"target":"Less than 2.30"}
{"Question":"Between 20 September 2019 and 15 October 2019, how many candidates for the Democratic nomination for president of the United States will cease to be candidates?","Started_time":"2019-09-20","Closed_time":"2019-10-16","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"As of 20 September 2019, the 19 Democratic candidates relevant to this question are: Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg, Juli\u00e1n Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Wayne Messam, Beto O\u2019Rourke, Tim Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Joe Sestak, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang (NY Times). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"None":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"One or two":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Three or four":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Five or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["None","One or two","Three or four","Five or more"],"target":"None"}
{"Question":"Will legislation permitting electric utilities to recover 2018 wildfire liability debt costs by charging customers become law in California before 14 October 2019?","Started_time":"2019-03-15","Closed_time":"2019-10-15","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Environment","US Policy"],"Description":"In September 2018, California Governor Jerry Brown signed legislation permitting electric utilities like Pacific Gas & Electric to pay for wildfire liabilities with bonds and higher rates charged to customers (U.S News, California Legislative Information). The law applies to fires that started in 2017 or in 2019 and beyond, but not fires started in 2018 (NY Times). Whether California will extend that option to liabilities for 2018 wildfires is the subject of much political speculation (LA Times, SF Chronicle, The Wall Street Journal).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the domestic box office gross in the opening week for Warner Bros.' Joker, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2019-08-23","Closed_time":"2019-10-04","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"Joker, starring Joaquin Phoenix in the title role, is the latest film based on DC Comics' characters (IMDB, BoxOfficeMojo, GameSpot). The film is scheduled to be released on 4 October 2019, and the outcome will be determined with \"Weekly Box Office\" data for the week of 4 October to 10 October 2019 as reported by Box Office Mojo (BoxOfficeMojo).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $70,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between $70,000,000 and $90,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"More than $90,000,000 but less than $110,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Between $110,000,000 and $130,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"More than $130,000,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"}},"choices":["Less than $70,000,000","Between $70,000,000 and $90,000,000, inclusive","More than $90,000,000 but less than $110,000,000","Between $110,000,000 and $130,000,000, inclusive","More than $130,000,000"],"target":"More than $130,000,000"}
{"Question":"Who will the European Council appoint as the next European Central Bank (ECB) president?","Started_time":"2019-01-25","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"Current ECB President Mario Draghi's term ends this fall (The Economist, Bloomberg, The Financial Times). The ECB president is appointed by the European Council, acting by a qualified majority (The European Central Bank, The European Council).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Someone from Finland":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone from France":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Someone from Germany":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone from Ireland":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No appointment will be made before 1 October 2019":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Someone from Finland","Someone from France","Someone from Germany","Someone from Ireland","Someone else","No appointment will be made before 1 October 2019"],"target":"No appointment will be made before 1 October 2019"}
{"Question":"What percentage of the vote will the Austrian People's Party (\u00d6VP) win in the next Austrian parliamentary elections?","Started_time":"2019-06-28","Closed_time":"2019-09-28","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The \u00d6VP led parliamentary elections in 2017, and went on to form a government with the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) (CNBC, Austrian Embassy, Austrian Embassy, Reuters). However, a corruption scandal hit the FPO, leading to a government collapse and the calling of snap elections (France24, BBC, France24).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 32.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Between 32.00% and 36.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"More than 36.00% but less than 40.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Between 40.00% and 44.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 44.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 32.00%","Between 32.00% and 36.00%, inclusive","More than 36.00% but less than 40.00%","Between 40.00% and 44.00%, inclusive","More than 44.00%"],"target":"More than 36.00% but less than 40.00%"}
{"Question":"On 1 October 2019, how many countries will be on Russia's food embargo list?","Started_time":"2018-04-11","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Russia embargoed food imports from the United States, EU member states, Canada, Australia, and Norway in August 2014 as retaliation for Western sanctions imposed after Russia's annexation of Crimea (European Commission). Iceland, Albania, Montenegro, Liechtenstein, and Ukraine were later added to the list (Yahoo). The embargo on these 37 countries was last extended through 31 December 2018 (Radio Free Europe). Since 2014, certain products have been exempted from the embargo (USDA Foreign Agricultural Services), but the list of covered countries has only expanded.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 and 31, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 32 and 35, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"36":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"37 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["0","Between 1 and 31, inclusive","Between 32 and 35, inclusive","36","37 or more"],"target":"37 or more"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2019, will nuclear experts from the IAEA, the CTBTO, the UN, United States, or South Korea visit North Korea\u2019s Yongbyon nuclear facility?","Started_time":"2019-02-22","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The future of the Yongbyon nuclear site -- and potential inspections by experts from\u00a0 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty Organization (CTBTO), or others -- is part of ongoing negotiations with North Korea (The Economist, Nuclear Threat Initiative, The Washington Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2019, will the OSCE verify that separatist forces have withdrawn all of their heavy weaponry in accordance with the Minsk II Peace Agreement?","Started_time":"2018-04-18","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"For the specific heavy weaponry withdrawal requirements see Annex 1, No. 2 of the Minsk II Agreement. The OSCE has established a Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine and one of its tasks is monitoring Minsk II compliance (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Kim Jong Un visit Seoul before 1 October 2019?","Started_time":"2019-03-22","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"No North Korean Supreme Leader has visited Seoul before, and such a visit could signal a significant step for the bilateral relationship (The Economist, NPR, NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will China's National People's Congress or its Standing Committee pass a property tax law before 1 October 2019?","Started_time":"2018-12-21","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"China's National People's Congress Standing Committee has initiated the legislative process to codify property taxes into law, with large implications for China's $44 trillion real estate market (The Economist, NPC Observer, Global Times, SCMP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2019, will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia?","Started_time":"2018-11-30","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Society","Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Mohammed bin Salman has moved to consolidate power in the Kingdom, but has recently been under scrutiny for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi (The Economist, The Guardian). In the past the Crown Prince has temporarily taken on the title of Vice Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques when the King has been unavailable; this will not count as ceasing to be Crown Prince.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, by becoming the King of Saudi Arabia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Yes, without becoming the King of Saudi Arabia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"}},"choices":["Yes, by becoming the King of Saudi Arabia","Yes, without becoming the King of Saudi Arabia","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Hassan Rouhani cease to be president of Iran before 1 October 2019?","Started_time":"2019-03-22","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Over the past year Iran has experienced economic crisis and domestic demonstrations, including some calling for President Rouhani's ouster (The Economist, CNBC, Foreign Policy, Voice of America).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2019, will the U.S. House of Representatives pass an article of impeachment against President Trump?","Started_time":"2018-11-30","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","US Politics"],"Description":"There has been a push among some Democrats to impeach President Trump (The Economist, BBC, Fortune, The Washington Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Bristol-Myers Squibb Corp.\u2019s acquisition of Celgene Corp. close before 1 October 2019?","Started_time":"2019-02-15","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"On 3 January 2019, pharmaceutical company Bristol-Myers Squibb Corp. announced\u00a0its planned $74 billion acquisition of biotechnology firm Celgene Corporation, expected by the third quarter of 2019 (CNBC, U.S Securities and Exchange Commission).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on a new nuclear arms control treaty or an extension\/modification of an existing nuclear arms control treaty begin before 1 October 2019?","Started_time":"2018-04-18","Closed_time":"2019-10-01","Challenges_list":["The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011, and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years. There is an option to extend it for up to five years upon the agreement of both parties, or a new deal could be negotiated (Reuters, Federation of American Scientists,  The Washington Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 November 2019, will the British oil tanker Stena Impero be released from Iranian custody?","Started_time":"2019-08-09","Closed_time":"2019-09-26","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Iranian forces seized the British-flagged Stena Impero on 19 July 2019, stoking tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically crucial waterway for oil & gas markets (BBC, Time, BBC, EIA). The Iranian government claims the ship was seized due to a collision with a fishing vessel, though the seizure has also been seen as retaliation for British actions (LA Times, Reuters). The release of the Stena Impero crew from Iranian custody is immaterial to the resolution of the question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s (Peloton) end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering (IPO)?","Started_time":"2019-09-06","Closed_time":"2019-09-26","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"Peloton Interactive Inc., a home exercise firm, publicly filed for an IPO in August 2019 (Peloton, SEC, Fortune, CNBC, IG). The outcome of this question will be determined by the end-of-day Market Capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $4.0 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $4.0 billion and $6.5 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"More than $6.5 billion but less than $9.0 billion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"},"$9.0 billion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Peloton will not have an IPO before 30 November 2019":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $4.0 billion","Between $4.0 billion and $6.5 billion, inclusive","More than $6.5 billion but less than $9.0 billion","$9.0 billion or more","Peloton will not have an IPO before 30 November 2019"],"target":"More than $6.5 billion but less than $9.0 billion"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2019, will Margaret Atwood's book \"The Testaments\" be #1 on any weekly New York Times Best Sellers list?","Started_time":"2019-08-02","Closed_time":"2019-09-24","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Margaret Atwood's The Testaments, the sequel to The Handmaid's Tale, is scheduled to be released on 10 September 2019 (CBC). This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the book is listed on any weekly New York Times Best Sellers list published online (New York Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will a member of the Likud Party be the first person invited to form a government after the next Israeli general election?","Started_time":"2019-07-19","Closed_time":"2019-09-16","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"After the April 2019 elections, Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party failed to form a government and the Knesset voted for an unprecedented second election in the same year (Reuters, AP News, Knesset.gov). The elections are scheduled for 17 September 2019, with Netanyahu's political future in the balance (Times of Israel, Foreign Policy).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, Benjamin Netanyahu":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"Yes, someone other than Benjamin Netanyahu":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"}},"choices":["Yes, Benjamin Netanyahu","Yes, someone other than Benjamin Netanyahu","No"],"target":"Yes, Benjamin Netanyahu"}
{"Question":"On 25 September 2019, what will be Venezuela's annual inflation rate according to Bloomberg's Cafe Con Leche Index?","Started_time":"2019-05-24","Closed_time":"2019-09-24","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Venezuela has been experiencing hyperinflation (The Economist, BBC).\u00a0 The question will be resolved using Bloomberg's \"Cafe Con Leche Index\" (Bloomberg).\u00a0 The inflation rate can be retrieved by selecting \"1 YEAR\" and observing the number under \"Annual Inflation Rate\" on the right.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 50,000%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between 50,000% and 100,000%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 100,000% and  200,000%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 200,000% and 500,000%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 500,000%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 50,000%","Between 50,000% and 100,000%, inclusive","Between 100,000% and  200,000%","Between 200,000% and 500,000%, inclusive","More than 500,000%"],"target":"Less than 50,000%"}
{"Question":"Between 2 August 2019 and 31 October 2019, will the United Auto Workers (UAW) union go on strike against General Motors (GM)?","Started_time":"2019-08-02","Closed_time":"2019-09-16","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy"],"Description":"On 16 July 2019, the UAW (officially the \"International Union, United Automobile, Aerospace and Agricultural Implement Workers of America\") and GM formally kicked off negotiations on a new collective bargaining agreement (CNBC). The current contract is set to expire on 14 September 2019, and both sides are prepared for a contentious fight (UAW, Nashville Post, Detroit News, AP). For the purposes of this question, a strike need not include all GM employees represented by the UAW, but must have been be approved by the UAW International Executive Board and\/or International President per Article 50 of the UAW constitution (UAW Constitution,\u00a0GM Authority\u00a0Blog).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 12 September 2019, how many candidates who participated at the second Democratic presidential primary debates on 30-31 July will cease to be candidates?","Started_time":"2019-08-02","Closed_time":"2019-09-12","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Twenty candidates appeared in the second set of debates, ten on 30 July and the other ten on 31 July (CNN). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Zero":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"One or two":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Three or four":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"Five or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"}},"choices":["Zero","One or two","Three or four","Five or more"],"target":"Three or four"}
{"Question":"Between 9 August 2019 and 8 September 2019, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","Started_time":"2019-08-09","Closed_time":"2019-09-09","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Russia has seen growing protests over the disqualification of several opposition candidates from local Moscow elections scheduled for 8 September (Time, Washington Post). Despite thousands of detentions and arrests since late July, protest organizers continue to rally for support (RFERL, Moscow Times, Carnegie Moscow Center). Fatalities must all occur during the question's duration to qualify.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing yield for 10-year U.S. Treasuries on 31 August 2019?","Started_time":"2019-06-21","Closed_time":"2019-08-30","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries, a major benchmark for interest rates, recently fell below 2.00% in intraday trading for the first time since the 2016 presidential election (CNBC, Market Watch). This question will resolve using data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury from the \"10 Yr\" column, found here.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.70":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between 1.70 and 1.90, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"More than 1.90 but less than 2.10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.10 and 2.30, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.30":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.70","Between 1.70 and 1.90, inclusive","More than 1.90 but less than 2.10","Between 2.10 and 2.30, inclusive","More than 2.30"],"target":"Less than 1.70"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value for the Dow Jones Transportation Average on 30 August 2019?","Started_time":"2019-04-19","Closed_time":"2019-08-30","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) represents the stock performance of 20 of the largest companies in the U.S. transport industry (Investopedia). Outcome will be determined using the closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 10,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Between 10,000.00 and 11,000.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"More than 11,000.00 but less than 12,000.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"12,000.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 10,000.00","Between 10,000.00 and 11,000.00, inclusive","More than 11,000.00 but less than 12,000.00","12,000.00 or more"],"target":"Between 10,000.00 and 11,000.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the U.S. dollar against the Russian ruble on 23 August 2019?","Started_time":"2019-06-21","Closed_time":"2019-08-22","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 58.0000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 58.0000 and 62.0000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 62.0000 but less than 66.0000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"},"Between 66.0000 and 70.0000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"More than 70.0000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 58.0000","Between 58.0000 and 62.0000, inclusive","More than 62.0000 but less than 66.0000","Between 66.0000 and 70.0000, inclusive","More than 70.0000"],"target":"Between 66.0000 and 70.0000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 22 August 2019, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","Started_time":"2019-06-21","Closed_time":"2019-08-21","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Regional tensions have increased with attacks against commercial vessels in the Gulf of Oman and the recent downing of a U.S. drone (BBC, Reuters, NBC). The U.S. has accused Iran of being behind the vessel attacks on 13 June, though Iran denies involvement (DW, NBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 17 August 2019, will retirement savings legislation known as the SECURE Act become law?","Started_time":"2019-06-21","Closed_time":"2019-08-16","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"In May 2019, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019, also known as the SECURE Act (H.R. 1994), intended to bring changes to the U.S. retirement system (WSJ, CNBC, congress.gov). Senate leaders sought to quickly pass the bill, but the move was procedurally blocked by Senators objecting to the House's removal of some provisions (Investment News, Pensions & Investments). An amended version of the SECURE Act becoming law would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 5 August 2019, will the president submit to Congress a bill for implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)?","Started_time":"2019-07-05","Closed_time":"2019-08-04","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019","In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"In November 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump, Mexican President Enrique Pe\u2013a Nieto, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed the USMCA, a trade deal intended to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) (Economist, NPR, USTR). In order to be ratified under a process known as Trade Promotion Authority, the president submitting a bill for implementation starts the clock on a timeline in which Congress must vote on the USMCA (WSJ, FAS, Politico, Senate.gov).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the domestic box office gross in the opening week for Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, according to Box Office Mojo?","Started_time":"2019-07-05","Closed_time":"2019-07-25","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is the latest film from director Quentin Tarantino (IMDB, Box Office Pro, Digital Trends). The film is scheduled to be released on 26 July 2019, and the outcome will be determined with \"Weekly Box Office\" data for the week of 26 July to 1 August as reported by Box Office Mojo (Box Office Mojo).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $20,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between $20,000,000 and $40,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"More than $40,000,000 but less than $60,000,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Between $60,000,000 and $80,000,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"More than $80,000,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than $20,000,000","Between $20,000,000 and $40,000,000, inclusive","More than $40,000,000 but less than $60,000,000","Between $60,000,000 and $80,000,000, inclusive","More than $80,000,000"],"target":"More than $40,000,000 but less than $60,000,000"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2019, will Ricardo Rossell\u00f3 cease to be the governor of Puerto Rico?","Started_time":"2019-07-19","Closed_time":"2019-08-02","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Following several arrests including former commonwealth officials in the wake of a fraud investigation, there have been calls on Governor Ricardo Rossell\u00f3 to resign (CBS News, Reuters, ABC News, El Nuevo Dia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"On 1 August 2019, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be higher, the same, or lower than it was on 31 January 2019?","Started_time":"2019-02-01","Closed_time":"2019-08-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Higher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Same":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Lower":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"}},"choices":["Higher","Same","Lower"],"target":"Lower"}
{"Question":"Before 1 August 2019, will Citgo Petroleum Corporation or any of its wholly-owned subsidiaries (Citgo) file for bankruptcy protection in the United States?","Started_time":"2019-03-01","Closed_time":"2019-08-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"While Citgo, owned by Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA, is distancing itself from PDVSA on many levels in an effort to avoid U.S. sanctions, the firm faces other obstacles CNBC, U.S Treasury, Reuters, Wall Street Journal ). There has been speculation that Citgo may file for bankruptcy protection, which the company has denied (Yahoo, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 August 2019, will Facebook announce that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO?","Started_time":"2018-12-07","Closed_time":"2019-08-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019","YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond","Global Judgment Challenge 2019","Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Mark Zuckerberg, as Facebook's sole Chairman and CEO, has been under pressure as the company's business practices face greater scrutiny (Reuters, NY Times, Axios). Zuckerberg, who owns a majority of voting shares of the company, has resisted calls for a change in governance (CNBC). An announced leave of absence or addition of either a co-chairman or co-CEO would count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which of the following US stock market indexes will perform worst between 31 January 2019 and 31 July 2019?","Started_time":"2019-02-01","Closed_time":"2019-07-31","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Outcome will be determined using data from Bloomberg, by dividing the end-of-day closing values for 31 July 2019 by the end-of-day closing values for 31 January 2019, which were:","DJIA (Bloomberg): 24,999.67","NASDAQ Composite (Bloomberg): 7,281.74","Russell 2000 (Bloomberg): 1,499.42"],"Description":"S&P 500 (Bloomberg): 2,704.10","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"NASDAQ Composite":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Russell 2000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"S&P 500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)","NASDAQ Composite","Russell 2000","S&P 500"],"target":"Russell 2000"}
{"Question":"Before 27 July 2019, how many candidates who participate at the first Democratic presidential primary debates scheduled for 26-27 June will cease to be candidates?","Started_time":"2019-06-21","Closed_time":"2019-07-26","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"Twenty candidates are scheduled to appear in the debates, ten on 26 June and the other ten on 27 June (NBC). Examples of what will count for resolution of this question include an official announcement that a candidate no longer seeks the Democratic Party nomination for president or that a candidate is suspending his or her campaign.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Zero":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"One or two":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"Three or four":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Five or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"}},"choices":["Zero","One or two","Three or four","Five or more"],"target":"One or two"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2019, will Robert Mueller testify in person before Congress?","Started_time":"2019-06-21","Closed_time":"2019-07-24","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019","In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"Since announcing his resignation as Special Council on 29 May, members of Congress continue to call for Mueller to testify before Congress about matters surrounding his \"Report on the Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election\" (The Economist, The Hill, The Washington Times, Fox News, The Washington Times). Testifying in person before any House, Senate, or joint committee (publicly or otherwise) would count toward resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 November 2019, will Moody's downgrade The Boeing Company's long-term credit rating and\/or change its outlook to negative?","Started_time":"2019-05-03","Closed_time":"2019-07-22","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"After two crashes of Boeing 737 MAX-8s, the global fleet of 737 MAX aircraft was grounded while investigations proceeded (https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-africa-47553174). Boeing later announced that it would cut 737 MAX production in April. In this context, Moody's stated that \"'cash flow pressures will mount' if the fleet is grounded longer than four months\" (https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/business\/2019\/04\/08\/boeing-stock-slips-after-max-production-cut\/, https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/boeing-rating-moodys\/moodys-says-ethiopia-crash-wont-affect-boeing-rating-at-this-time-idUSL8N2114XH, https:\/\/www.moodys.com\/research\/Moodys-assigns-A2-ratings-to-Boeings-new-unsecured-notes--PR_399888 (scrolling down and clicking \"I Agree\" required).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the Men's International Cricket Council (ICC) Cricket World Cup 2019?","Started_time":"2019-05-03","Closed_time":"2019-07-14","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Afghanistan":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Australia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Bangladesh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"England":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"India":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"New Zealand":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Pakistan":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"South Africa":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Sri Lanka":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"West Indies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Afghanistan","Australia","Bangladesh","England","India","New Zealand","Pakistan","South Africa","Sri Lanka","West Indies"],"target":"England"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2019, will AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, or Verizon offer 5G smartphones to US customers?","Started_time":"2019-02-15","Closed_time":"2019-06-28","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"The development of 5G capabilities for smartphones is a step on the way to advanced use of cellular communications in autonomous vehicles (Reuters, Tom's Guide, Digital Trends). Smartphones with physical 5G add-on capabilities (e.g., Verizon's Moto Z3) will not count unless the required physical add-ons are also offered. For the purposes of this question, should the merger between Sprint and T-Mobile close the companies will continue to be counted separately.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, 1 of the companies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, 2 of the companies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Yes, 3 of the companies":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"Yes, all 4 of the companies":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["No","Yes, 1 of the companies","Yes, 2 of the companies","Yes, 3 of the companies","Yes, all 4 of the companies"],"target":"Yes, all 4 of the companies"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2019, will Daniel Ortega cease to be president of Nicaragua?","Started_time":"2018-08-15","Closed_time":"2019-06-30","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Protests in response to government pension reforms have expanded to focus on Ortega, including calls for him to step down (The Washington Post, Reuters, ABC News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019?","Started_time":"2018-12-21","Closed_time":"2019-07-01","Challenges_list":["YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"UK prime minister Theresa May faces a number of leadership challenges as she attempts to navigate Brexit (BBC, Politico)","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, someone from the Conservative Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Yes, someone from the Labour Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, someone from a party other than the Labour or Conservative Parties":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"}},"choices":["Yes, someone from the Conservative Party","Yes, someone from the Labour Party","Yes, someone from a party other than the Labour or Conservative Parties","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which major stock exchange index among the four \"Asian Tiger\" economies will perform best between 10 January 2019 and 28 June 2019?","Started_time":"2019-01-11","Closed_time":"2019-06-28","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Foreign Policy","Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan have become known as the\u00a0four \"Asian Tigers\" (iDeals Virtual Data Room, South China Morning Post, Investopedia). Outcome will be determined using data from Bloomberg, by dividing the end-of-day closing values for 28 June 2019 by the end-of-day closing values for 10 January 2019, which were:","Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (Bloomberg): 26,521.43","Singapore's Straits Times Index (Bloomberg): 3,183.51","South Korea's KOSPI (Bloomberg): 2,063.28"],"Description":"Taiwan's Stock Exchange Weighted Index (Bloomberg): 9,720.69","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Singapore's Straits Times Index":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"South Korea's KOSPI":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Taiwan's Stock Exchange Weighted Index":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79%"}},"choices":["Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index","Singapore's Straits Times Index","South Korea's KOSPI","Taiwan's Stock Exchange Weighted Index"],"target":"Taiwan's Stock Exchange Weighted Index"}
{"Question":"Will the Supreme Court rule that any part of either North Carolina's or Maryland's congressional district maps is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander?","Started_time":"2019-02-08","Closed_time":"2019-06-27","Challenges_list":["The 2018 SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"In the cases of Rucho v. Common Cause and Lamone v. Benisek, separate district court panels declared congressional district maps in North Carolina and Maryland to be unconstitutional (SCOTUSBlog, SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court agreed to hear appeals for these cases, and oral arguments in both are scheduled for 26 March 2019 (The Economist, The Baltimore Sun). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down both decisions in its current term, but if it does not decide at least one case, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In Tennessee Wine & Spirits Retailers Association v. Blair, will the Supreme Court rule that Tennessee's residency requirements for issuing liquor licenses are unconstitutional?","Started_time":"2018-12-07","Closed_time":"2019-06-26","Challenges_list":["The 2018 SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In February 2018, the Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit affirmed a district court's ruling that Tennessee's minimum residency requirements for retail or wholesale liquor license applicants violated the dormant Commerce Clause of the Constitution by  discriminating against out-of-state individuals and entities (SCOTUSBlog). A Tennessee association of retailers appealed to the Supreme Court, arguing that the state's requirements are permissible under the Twenty-first Amendment, which repealed Prohibition (Oyez). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"69.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Robert Mueller cease to be Special Counsel before 1 January 2020?","Started_time":"2019-01-04","Closed_time":"2019-05-29","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics"],"Description":"Robert Mueller was appointed to serve as Special Counsel to investigate Russian interference with the 2016 presidential election and related matters by Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in May 2017 (U.S Department of Justice, Time Magazine).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Gundy v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Congress' delegation of authority to the attorney general in the federal Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act (SORNA) violates the nondelegation doctrine?","Started_time":"2018-09-21","Closed_time":"2019-06-20","Challenges_list":["The 2018 SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Policy"],"Description":"In 2016, Herman Gundy was convicted of violating SORNA for failing to register as a sex offender in New York (SCOTUSBlog). His underlying conviction requiring registration was in 2005, before the enactment of SORNA (Office of Sex Offender Sentencing, Monitoring, Apprehending, Registering, and Tracking). On appeal, Gundy argues that the section of SORNA granting the attorney general the authority to \"prescribe rules\" that apply to him was an unconstitutional delegation of legislative power to the executive branch (SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In Gamble v. United States, will the Supreme Court overrule the \"separate sovereign\" exception to the Double Jeopardy Clause?","Started_time":"2018-10-12","Closed_time":"2019-06-17","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In Manhattan Community Access Corp. v. Halleck, will the Supreme Court rule that the Manhattan Neighborhood Network is a public forum for First Amendment purposes?","Started_time":"2019-01-11","Closed_time":"2019-06-17","Challenges_list":["The 2018 SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society"],"Description":"A suit over First Amendment rights violations was dismissed by the district court, concluding that First Amendment protections do not apply to Manhattan Neighborhood Network because it is not a public forum and its employees are not state actors (Reuters, Oyez, SCOTUSBlog). The appeals court reversed in part, ruling that public access TV channels in Manhattan are public forums and the case should proceed (SCOTUSBlog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2019 NBA Finals?","Started_time":"2019-04-17","Closed_time":"2019-06-13","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The NBA Finals are scheduled to begin on 30 May 2019 (NBA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Western Conference Champion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"The Eastern Conference Champion":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"}},"choices":["The Western Conference Champion","The Eastern Conference Champion"],"target":"The Eastern Conference Champion"}
{"Question":"Before 31 August 2019, will the weekly average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. fall below 4.30%?","Started_time":"2019-05-17","Closed_time":"2019-06-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will voter turnout for the 2019 European Parliament elections set a record low?","Started_time":"2019-01-25","Closed_time":"2019-05-23","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019"],"Tags_list":["Society","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Pivotal elections to the European Parliament are scheduled for May 2019, and Brussels is working to increase turnout -- in 2014 the final figure was a record-low 42.61% (Bloomberg, Politico). This question will be suspended the day before the election and closed based on the turnout figures available on the European Parliament website at the time of the first sitting of the newly-elected Parliament; for more information on turnout in past elections see The European Parliament and select \"Turnout,\" \"By year,\" and \"European Union.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"On 24 May 2019, will the FTSE 100 Index closing value be higher than it was on 4 April 2019?","Started_time":"2019-04-05","Closed_time":"2019-05-24","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined using data from Bloomberg. The FTSE 100 Index closed at 7,401.94 on 4 April 2019.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 31 May 2019, according to CNBC?","Started_time":"2019-01-11","Closed_time":"2019-05-30","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the closing price reported by CNBC, using the 1Y graph (CNBC). The closing price can be found by hovering your cursor over the relevant date.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1,000 and $3,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $3,000 but less than $5,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between $5,000 and $7,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"More than $7,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"}},"choices":["Less than $1,000","Between $1,000 and $3,000, inclusive","More than $3,000 but less than $5,000","Between $5,000 and $7,000, inclusive","More than $7,000"],"target":"More than $7,000"}
{"Question":"How many media outlets will be on the Russian Ministry of Justice's list of media designated as foreign agents on 1 June 2019?","Started_time":"2018-04-11","Closed_time":"2019-06-01","Challenges_list":["The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The list of media outlets designated as foreign agents can be found here. In November 2017, Russia passed a law which allows the government to designate media outlets receiving funding from abroad as \"foreign agents\" and subject designated entities to additional requirements or sanctions (Reuters). The following month, nine entities were designated as foreign agents, including Voice of America and Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty (Reuters). The designation of individual journalists as foreign agents will not count (e.g., Radio Free Europe).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3 to 7, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"8 to 10, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"11 to 20, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"More than 20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3","3 to 7, inclusive","8 to 10, inclusive","11 to 20, inclusive","More than 20"],"target":"8 to 10, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Narendra Modi be appointed to a second consecutive term as prime minister of India after the 2019 general elections?","Started_time":"2018-12-21","Closed_time":"2019-05-25","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Narendra Modi, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has served as prime minister of India since 2014 (The Economist, Inter-Parliamentary Union). General elections for the Lok Sabha are due to be held in April and May 2019 (Aljazeera). If no prime minister has been appointed by 1 October 2019, the question will be closed as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In France's elections for the European Parliament, will the National Rally list receive more votes than the La R\u00e9publique En Marche list?","Started_time":"2019-04-26","Closed_time":"2019-05-26","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"After the \"Yellow Vests\" protests, the 2019 European Parliament elections are seen as a key barometer for French politics and for populism in Europe more broadly (The Economist, The Economist, Gouvernement.fr).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"If the UK participates in European Parliament elections, what percentage of votes will the Change UK Party win?","Started_time":"2019-05-03","Closed_time":"2019-05-23","Challenges_list":["YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Business","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The UK's participation in the 2019 European Parliament election is required under the latest extension to the Brexit process (https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-politics-47826886, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-politics-47946256, https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-britain-eu-extension-text\/text-eu-agreement-to-extend-brexit-idUSKCN1RN01E).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"Between 5.00% and 10.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Between 10.00% and 15.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15.00% and 20.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 20.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 5.00%","Between 5.00% and 10.00%, inclusive","Between 10.00% and 15.00%","Between 15.00% and 20.00%, inclusive","More than 20.00%"],"target":"Less than 5.00%"}
{"Question":"If the UK participates in European Parliament elections, what percentage of votes will the Brexit Party win?","Started_time":"2019-05-03","Closed_time":"2019-05-23","Challenges_list":["YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The UK's participation in the 2019 European Parliament election is required under the latest extension to the Brexit process (https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-politics-47826886, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/uk-politics-47946256, https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-britain-eu-extension-text\/text-eu-agreement-to-extend-brexit-idUSKCN1RN01E).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 20.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 20.00% and 25.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Between 25.00% and 30.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Between 30.00% and 35.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"More than 35.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"}},"choices":["Less than 20.00%","Between 20.00% and 25.00%, inclusive","Between 25.00% and 30.00%","Between 30.00% and 35.00%, inclusive","More than 35.00%"],"target":"Between 30.00% and 35.00%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2019 NBA Western Conference Championship?","Started_time":"2019-04-17","Closed_time":"2019-05-20","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The NBA playoffs began on 15 April 2019 (NBA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Golden State Warriors":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Denver Nuggets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Portland Trail Blazers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Houston Rockets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Utah Jazz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Oklahoma City Thunder":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"San Antonio Spurs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Clippers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Golden State Warriors","Denver Nuggets","Portland Trail Blazers","Houston Rockets","Utah Jazz","Oklahoma City Thunder","San Antonio Spurs","Los Angeles Clippers"],"target":"Golden State Warriors"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2019 NBA Eastern Conference Championship?","Started_time":"2019-04-17","Closed_time":"2019-05-25","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The NBA playoffs began on 15 April 2019 (NBA).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Milwaukee Bucks":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"Toronto Raptors":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Philadelphia 76ers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Boston Celtics":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Indiana Pacers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Brooklyn Nets":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Orlando Magic":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Detroit Pistons":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Milwaukee Bucks","Toronto Raptors","Philadelphia 76ers","Boston Celtics","Indiana Pacers","Brooklyn Nets","Orlando Magic","Detroit Pistons"],"target":"Toronto Raptors"}
{"Question":"Who will be the last character shown sitting on the Iron Throne in the series Game of Thrones?","Started_time":"2019-05-03","Closed_time":"2019-05-19","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"Should the series finale be aired after 19 May, the closing date will be extended to that later date. Should two or more characters be somehow depicted as the last to sit on the Iron Throne simultaneously, the question will close as None of the Above. Flashbacks will not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Cersei Lannister":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Jaime Lannister":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Tyrion Lannister":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Jon Snow\/Aegon Targaryen":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"Daenerys Targaryen":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"None of the Above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"}},"choices":["Cersei Lannister","Jaime Lannister","Tyrion Lannister","Jon Snow\/Aegon Targaryen","Daenerys Targaryen","None of the Above"],"target":"Cersei Lannister"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Myanmar engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Myanmar?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Mali engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Mali?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of Congo?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Bangladesh engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Bangladesh?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Zimbabwe engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Zimbabwe?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan?","Started_time":"2018-04-02","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Tyrion Lannister and Bronn of Blackwater survive the series Game of Thrones?","Started_time":"2019-05-03","Closed_time":"2019-05-19","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"Should the series finale be aired after 19 May, the closing date will be extended to that later date.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Tyrion Lannister only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Bronn of Blackwater only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Both will survive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"Neither will survive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["Tyrion Lannister only","Bronn of Blackwater only","Both will survive","Neither will survive"],"target":"Both will survive"}
{"Question":"In the series Game of Thrones, will Brienne of Tarth marry?","Started_time":"2019-05-03","Closed_time":"2019-05-19","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"Should the series finale be aired after 19 May, the closing date will be extended to that later date.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, Jaime Lannister":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, Tormund Giantsbane":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, Sandor \"the Hound\" Clegane":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, Jaime Lannister","Yes, Tormund Giantsbane","Yes, Sandor \"the Hound\" Clegane","Yes, someone else","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What percentage of votes will the African National Congress win in South Africa's next election for the National Assembly?","Started_time":"2019-03-22","Closed_time":"2019-05-08","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The African National Congress has been the governing party in South Africa since 1994, and incumbent president Cyril Ramaphosa hopes to consolidate his authority via the upcoming general elections scheduled for 8 May 2019 (The Economist, Council on Foreign Relations, Independent Online).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 50.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 50.00% and 60.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"More than 60.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"}},"choices":["Less than 50.00%","Between 50.00% and 60.00%, inclusive","More than 60.00%"],"target":"Between 50.00% and 60.00%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be Uber's end-of-day market capitalization on the day of its initial public offering?","Started_time":"2018-11-30","Closed_time":"2019-05-10","Challenges_list":["2018-2019 Vehicle Innovations Challenge","The Economist: The World in 2019","Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"While Uber's potential IPO might be one of the largest ever, the company's present and future performance are sources of uncertainty for investors, market watchers and other interested observers (Fortune, Financial Times, Bloomberg).Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day Market Capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $40 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $40 billion and $70 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than $70 billion but less than $100 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"},"Between $100 billion and $130 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than $130 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Uber will not have an IPO before 1 October 2019":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $40 billion","Between $40 billion and $70 billion, inclusive","More than $70 billion but less than $100 billion","Between $100 billion and $130 billion, inclusive","More than $130 billion","Uber will not have an IPO before 1 October 2019"],"target":"Between $40 billion and $70 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will a date for general elections in Denmark be announced?","Started_time":"2019-02-08","Closed_time":"2019-05-07","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 April 2019":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April and 15 May 2019":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"After 15 May 2019":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Before 1 April 2019","Between 1 April and 15 May 2019","After 15 May 2019"],"target":"Between 1 April and 15 May 2019"}
{"Question":"Between 15 February 2019 and 31 October 2019, which company from among Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft will first reach an end-of-day  market capitalization of $1 trillion?","Started_time":"2019-02-15","Closed_time":"2019-04-30","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"After Apple and Amazon each crossed the trillion-dollar threshold in 2018, tech companies have seen declines in their market capitalization (Financial Times, CNBC). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" reported by Bloomberg for Alphabet (Bloomberg), Amazon (Bloomberg), Apple (Bloomberg), and Microsoft (Bloomberg).\u00a0If two or more companies reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion on the same day, the question will resolve on the company with the higher market capitalization.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Alphabet":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Amazon":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"Apple":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Microsoft":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Alphabet","Amazon","Apple","Microsoft","None of the above"],"target":"Microsoft"}
{"Question":"Who will win Ukraine's 2019 presidential election?","Started_time":"2019-02-22","Closed_time":"2019-04-21","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Presidential elections in Ukraine are currently scheduled for 31 March 2019 with a runoff to be held 21 April 2019 if needed (Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty, The Economist, Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Petro Poroshenko":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Yulia Tymoshenko":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Volodymyr Zelenskiy":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Petro Poroshenko","Yulia Tymoshenko","Volodymyr Zelenskiy","None of the above"],"target":"Volodymyr Zelenskiy"}
{"Question":"What will be the all-time count of pro-Kremlin disinformation cases identified by the European Union External Action Service's East StratCom Task Force as of 18 April 2019?","Started_time":"2018-04-18","Closed_time":"2019-04-18","Challenges_list":["The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Allegations of Russian disinformation have been on the rise in Europe, the US, and beyond (The Economist, The Independent, NATO). This question will be resolved using the all-time count of disinformation cases identified by the European Union's East StratCom Task Force at the bottom of this page, by moving the slider all the way to the right: here. The all-time count of disinformation cases on 18 April 2018 was 3946. The website was started in November 2015, and an analysis of the data indicates that there were 2023 cases in 2016 and 1321 cases in 2017.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 4300":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4300 and 4900, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 4900 but less than 5500":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between 5500 and 6300, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than 6300":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 4300","Between 4300 and 4900, inclusive","More than 4900 but less than 5500","Between 5500 and 6300, inclusive","More than 6300"],"target":"More than 4900 but less than 5500"}
{"Question":"Before 1 April 2019, how many countries will formally progress in the NATO accession process?","Started_time":"2018-04-18","Closed_time":"2019-04-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019","The Russia Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Formal progression in the NATO accession process consists of a country: reaching a new stage of any of the seven stages listed under the accession process section (NATO); receiving an invitation to participate in a Membership Action Plan (NATO); or entering into Intensified Dialogue (Project Gutenberg). Countries will only be counted once.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"1"}
{"Question":"Before 30 March 2019, what will happen next with regard to the UK's notification of Article 50?","Started_time":"2018-12-21","Closed_time":"2019-03-30","Challenges_list":["YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In March 2017, the UK triggered Article 50, which set off a two-year countdown before the UK officially leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 (EUR-Lex). The process for extending the deadline is included in Article 50 and the European Court of Justice has recently ruled that the UK can also revoke its notification (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"It will be revoked by the UK":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"It will be extended by the UK and the European Council":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"Neither of the above will occur and the UK will leave the EU":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["It will be revoked by the UK","It will be extended by the UK and the European Council","Neither of the above will occur and the UK will leave the EU"],"target":"It will be extended by the UK and the European Council"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value for the pound against the euro on 1 April 2019?","Started_time":"2019-01-24","Closed_time":"2019-04-01","Challenges_list":["YOU PREDICT THE FUTURE: Brexit & Beyond"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The Brexit process introduces uncertainty for the pound (CNBC). Outcome will be determined by the closing value reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Below \u20ac1.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between \u20ac1.00 and \u20ac1.10, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than \u20ac1.10 but less than \u20ac1.20":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between \u20ac1.20 and \u20ac1.30, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than \u20ac1.30":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Below \u20ac1.00","Between \u20ac1.00 and \u20ac1.10, inclusive","More than \u20ac1.10 but less than \u20ac1.20","Between \u20ac1.20 and \u20ac1.30, inclusive","More than \u20ac1.30"],"target":"More than \u20ac1.10 but less than \u20ac1.20"}
{"Question":"What will be the Bank of England's Bank Rate on 1 April 2019?","Started_time":"2018-11-02","Closed_time":"2019-04-01","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March 2019, putting a spotlight on the Bank of England's benchmark interest rate, known as the \"Bank Rate\" (BBC). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate, and held it at 0.75% at its September 2018 meeting (The Bank of England,  The Bank of England). Future MPC meeting dates can be found here. This question will be resolved based on the Bank Rate at the end of the day on 1 April 2019.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 0.26%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 0.26% and 0.50%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 0.50% but less than 0.76%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"Between 0.76% and 1.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 1.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 0.26%","Between 0.26% and 0.50%, inclusive","More than 0.50% but less than 0.76%","Between 0.76% and 1.00%, inclusive","More than 1.00%"],"target":"More than 0.50% but less than 0.76%"}
{"Question":"Will the UK hold a referendum vote on its relationship with the EU or a snap general election before 29 March 2019?","Started_time":"2018-11-30","Closed_time":"2019-03-29","Challenges_list":["The Economist: The World in 2019","In the News 2018","Global Judgment Challenge 2019"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Brexit developments have intensified as the official leave date nears\u00a0(The Economist, The Financial Times, The Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"Yes, only a snap general election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Yes, only a referendum on its relationship with the EU":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Yes, both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["No","Yes, only a snap general election","Yes, only a referendum on its relationship with the EU","Yes, both"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In Air and Liquid Systems Corp. v. Devries, will the Supreme Court rule that Air and Liquid Systems Corp. can be held liable for negligence in exposing service members to asbestos?","Started_time":"2018-09-21","Closed_time":"2019-03-19","Challenges_list":["The 2018 SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Policy"],"Description":"In 2014, the widows of US naval servicemen who died of cancer allegedly caused by exposure to asbestos lost a civil suit against Air and Liquid Systems Corp. (Court House News). The Third Circuit reversed that decision, ruling that the company could be held liable for negligence even though their products were not manufactured with asbestos (Oyez). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term (SCOTUSBlog), but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Madison v. Alabama, will the Supreme Court rule that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison?","Started_time":"2018-09-21","Closed_time":"2019-02-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018","The 2018 SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Policy"],"Description":"In 1985, Vernon Madison was first convicted of capital murder in state court (Newsweek). A series of strokes has since left him without any memory of the crime, and his counsel is arguing that executing a person for a crime they cannot remember violates the Eighth Amendment's prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment (SCOTUSBlog, Oyez). If the Supreme Court decides to vacate and remand the case for further proceedings, the question will resolve as yes. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2018 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2019 Academy Award for Actress in a Leading Role?","Started_time":"2019-02-08","Closed_time":"2019-02-24","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 91st Academy Awards are scheduled to take place Sunday 24 February 2019 (Oscars 2019). In the event of a tie, the question will close based on the film with the higher box office gross per\u00a0Box Office Mojo.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Glenn Close (The Wife)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"Olivia Colman (The Favourite)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)","Glenn Close (The Wife)","Olivia Colman (The Favourite)","Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)","Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)"],"target":"Olivia Colman (The Favourite)"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2019 Academy Award for Actor in a Leading Role?","Started_time":"2019-02-08","Closed_time":"2019-02-24","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 91st Academy Awards are scheduled to take place Sunday 24 February 2019 (Oscars 2019). In the event of a tie, the question will close based on the film with the higher box office gross per\u00a0Box Office Mojo.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Christian Bale (Vice)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Christian Bale (Vice)","Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)","Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)","Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)","Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)"],"target":"Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2019 Academy Award for Directing?","Started_time":"2019-02-08","Closed_time":"2019-02-24","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 91st Academy Awards are scheduled to take place Sunday 24 February 2019 (Oscars 2019). In the event of a tie, the question will close based on the film with the higher box office gross per Box Office Mojo.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Cold War (Pawel Pawlikowski)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Roma (Alfonso Cuar\u00f3n)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"Vice (Adam McKay)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee)","Cold War (Pawel Pawlikowski)","The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos)","Roma (Alfonso Cuar\u00f3n)","Vice (Adam McKay)"],"target":"Roma (Alfonso Cuar\u00f3n)"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2019 Academy Award for Best Picture?","Started_time":"2019-02-08","Closed_time":"2019-02-24","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The 91st Academy Awards are scheduled to take place Sunday 24 February 2019 (Oscars 2019). In the event of a tie, the question will close based on the film with the higher box office gross per\u00a0Box Office Mojo.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Black Panther":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"BlacKkKlansman":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bohemian Rhapsody":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The Favourite":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Green Book":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Roma":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"A Star Is Born":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Vice":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Black Panther","BlacKkKlansman","Bohemian Rhapsody","The Favourite","Green Book","Roma","A Star Is Born","Vice"],"target":"Green Book"}
{"Question":"In Timbs v. Indiana, will the Supreme Court rule that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states?","Started_time":"2018-11-09","Closed_time":"2019-02-20","Challenges_list":["The 2018 SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In 2015, Tyson Timbs pleaded guilty to felony charges in an Indiana court, after which the State sought to make Timbs forfeit his vehicle (The Indianapolis Star, Oyez, SCOTUSBlog). A trial court ruled such a forfeiture violated the Eighth Amendment\u2019s prohibition against imposing excessive fines. The Indiana Supreme Court then reversed the ruling, stating that the U.S. Supreme Court had never \u201cincorporated\u201d the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment, and Timbs appealed (Cornell Law). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many total \"Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions\" will U.S. Customs and Border Protection report for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019?","Started_time":"2018-12-21","Closed_time":"2019-02-01","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by data reported in the table \"Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions Fiscal Year 2019 - By Month\" located here, by adding up the numbers in the \"Total Apprehensions\" column for El Centro and San Diego on the tab that should be called \"FY19 January.\" For example, the figure for FY19 November was 7,764 total apprehensions. This question will be suspended on 31 January 2019 and will close when data for January are released.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 6,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"9,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 6,000","Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive","Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive","Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive","9,000 or more"],"target":"Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win Super Bowl LIII?","Started_time":"2019-01-28","Closed_time":"2019-02-04","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"Super Bowl LIII is scheduled for Sunday 3 February in Atlanta (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Los Angeles Rams":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New England Patriots":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Los Angeles Rams","New England Patriots"],"target":"New England Patriots"}
{"Question":"Will President Trump and Colin Kaepernick meet face-to-face before Super Bowl LIII?","Started_time":"2018-10-12","Closed_time":"2019-02-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will California's Pacific Gas and Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 1 November 2019?","Started_time":"2018-12-21","Closed_time":"2019-01-29","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society"],"Description":"PG&E is reportedly considering filing for bankruptcy protection after a series of wildfires in California (CBS, Bloomberg, CBS).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which NFL team will win the AFC Championship?","Started_time":"2019-01-04","Closed_time":"2019-01-21","Challenges_list":["In The News 2019"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"Schedules and matchups may be found here: NFL.com.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Kansas City Chiefs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"New England Patriots":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"Houston Texans":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Baltimore Ravens":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles Chargers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Indianapolis Colts":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Kansas City Chiefs","New England Patriots","Houston Texans","Baltimore Ravens","Los Angeles Chargers","Indianapolis Colts"],"target":"New England Patriots"}
{"Question":"What will be the percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018?","Started_time":"2018-11-02","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Society","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the past 12 months is reported monthly for all items, before seasonal adjustment, via a press release found under \"Consumer Price Index Summary\", and for the past 20 years on this graph by selecting \"All items\". In September 2018, the CPI-U all items index over the last 12 months increased 2.3 percent (The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and closed when the relevant data are first released, scheduled for the first half of January 2019 (BLS, BLS).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 2.0% and 2.2%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33%"},"Between 2.3% and 2.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Between 2.6% and 2.8%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"More than 2.8%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.0%","Between 2.0% and 2.2%, inclusive","Between 2.3% and 2.5%, inclusive","Between 2.6% and 2.8%, inclusive","More than 2.8%"],"target":"Less than 2.0%"}
{"Question":"What will the Bureau of Labor Statistics report the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) to be for the month of December 2018?","Started_time":"2018-11-02","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) reported for the month of December 2018 by the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. This question will be suspended on 31 December 2018 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in January.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.4%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.4% and 3.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"More than 3.5% but less than 3.7%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"Between 3.7% and 3.9%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"4.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.4%","Between 3.4% and 3.5%, inclusive","More than 3.5% but less than 3.7%","Between 3.7% and 3.9%, inclusive","4.0% or more"],"target":"Between 3.7% and 3.9%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"On 3 January 2019, how many U.S. senators will be women?","Started_time":"2018-05-23","Closed_time":"2019-01-03","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"In the current 115th United States Congress, 23 of 100 senators are women (ABC News). The number of women filing Senate candidacies ahead of the 2018 midterms could be record-setting (New Yorker, Center for American Women and Politics, Inside Elections).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"19 or fewer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"21":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"22":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"23":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"24":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"25 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"}},"choices":["19 or fewer","20","21","22","23","24","25 or more"],"target":"25 or more"}
{"Question":"Between 30 November 2018 and 30 September 2019, which country will next land on the moon?","Started_time":"2018-11-30","Closed_time":"2019-01-02","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"China":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"India":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Israel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No country will land on the moon in this timeframe":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["China","India","Israel","Another country","No country will land on the moon in this timeframe"],"target":"China"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2019, will any other EU member state schedule a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone?","Started_time":"2017-12-15","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2018"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"After the victory of the \"leave\" campaign in the United Kingdom's 2016 referendum, there have been calls from factions within other EU member states to leave the eurozone or the European Union.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019?","Started_time":"2017-12-15","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2018"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Quds and Basij (The Iran Primer, Council on Foreign Relations, Middle East Institute).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019?","Started_time":"2017-12-15","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2018"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still holds power despite a civil war that has lasted years and caused much destruction (BBC, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019?","Started_time":"2017-12-15","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2018"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has been using People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some have been posing as fishermen (South China Morning Post, Reuters, The Guardian, Center for Strategic and International Studies, The Diplomat).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) will North Korea launch between 14 July 2017 and 31 December 2018?","Started_time":"2017-07-14","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)","North Korea and Global Security"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2-3":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"4-5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2-3","4-5","6 or more"],"target":"2-3"}
{"Question":"Will the World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declare an influenza pandemic before 2019?","Started_time":"2017-04-18","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"There are concerns about a pandemic caused by the spread of avian flu (NY Times). Both the CDC (CDC, CDC) and the WHO (WHO) actively monitor influenza viruses and manage pandemic declaration.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 2019, will the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General name a suspected author of the New York Times \"Resistance\" op-ed?","Started_time":"2018-09-14","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"On 5 September 2018, the New York Times published an op-ed from an anonymous writer cited as a senior official in the Trump administration (NY Times). Validation and\/or acknowledgment by the suspected author is not required for resolution. Twitter communication will count. If the identity of the author is revealed first (e.g., by the New York Times or the author coming forward) the question will close as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries invert before 2019?","Started_time":"2018-11-02","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"For the past several years, the spread between yields on 2-year Treasuries and 10-year Treasuries has been closing (Investopedia). When interest rates on longer term debt drop below rates on shorter term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which historically has been a bad omen for economic growth (CNBC). This question will resolve as \"yes\" if the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate provided by the U.S. Department of the Treasury shows the value in the \"2 Yr\" column exceeds that in the \"10 Yr\" column on any one day (The U.S. Department of the Treasury).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2019, will either house of Congress pass a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs?","Started_time":"2018-03-21","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2019, will Robert Mueller cease to be Special Counsel?","Started_time":"2018-04-13","Closed_time":"2019-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge","Global Judgment Challenge 2018"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"Robert Mueller was appointed to serve as Special Counsel to investigate Russian interference with the 2016 presidential election and related matters by Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein in May 2017 (U.S Department of Justice).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018?","Started_time":"2018-11-16","Closed_time":"2018-12-28","Challenges_list":["Finance Forecasting Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1,150":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1,150 and $1,200, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $1,200 but less than $1,250":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Between $1,250 and $1,300, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"More than $1,300":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $1,150","Between $1,150 and $1,200, inclusive","More than $1,200 but less than $1,250","Between $1,250 and $1,300, inclusive","More than $1,300"],"target":"Between $1,250 and $1,300, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018?","Started_time":"2018-04-11","Closed_time":"2018-12-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $360 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between $360 billion and $430 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"More than $430 billion but less than $500 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between $500 billion and $570 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Greater than $570 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $360 billion","Between $360 billion and $430 billion, inclusive","More than $430 billion but less than $500 billion","Between $500 billion and $570 billion, inclusive","Greater than $570 billion"],"target":"Between $360 billion and $430 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2019, will the US federal government ban the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks?","Started_time":"2018-03-07","Closed_time":"2018-12-26","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2018"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Politics"],"Description":"In the wake of the mass shooting in Parkland, Florida, President Trump signalled his willingness to regulate \"bump stocks,\" an after-market accessory for semi-automatic rifles. (NY Times)  Legislation banning such devices has been introduced in Congress (CNN, CNN), and Speaker Paul Ryan has called for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) to ban them by regulation (The Hill) under existing law.  Regulatory or legislative bans will count, as will bans with exemptions. The date that any ban would take effect is immaterial to the outcome of the question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 15 December 2018, will the House of Commons approve the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom from the European Union?","Started_time":"2018-11-30","Closed_time":"2018-12-14","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Whether the House of Commons will approve the Withdrawal Agreement of the United Kingdom from the European Union is object of a great deal of uncertainty and speculation (BBC, The Guardian, Financial Times, Financial Times). The House of Commons approving a revised withdrawal agreement will not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 1 July 2017 and 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?","Started_time":"2018-04-18","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Although production of Tesla's Model 3s have ramped up, deliveries are still well below the targets Tesla set last summer (Auto Blog, Wired, Teslarati). See (GJOpen) for forecasts on deliveries for the same time period above 50,000.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"29,000 or less":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 29,000 but less than 36,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 36,000 and 43,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"More than 43,000 but less than 50,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"50,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["29,000 or less","More than 29,000 but less than 36,000","Between 36,000 and 43,000, inclusive","More than 43,000 but less than 50,000","50,000 or more"],"target":"29,000 or less"}
{"Question":"Which current candidate\u00a0for the U.S. House of Representatives will the Center for Responsive Politics list as having raised the most money\u00a0this election cycle?","Started_time":"2018-10-19","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"This question will be suspended on 5 November and resolved using data retrieved on 1 December 2018 from Opensecrets.org, and by selecting \"Current Candidates Only\" (e.g., Jon Ossoff is not a current candidate) and \"Current Cycle Only.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"David Trone (D-MD)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Devin Nunes (R-CA)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Gil Cisneros (D-CA)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Scott Wallace (D-PA)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["David Trone (D-MD)","Devin Nunes (R-CA)","Gil Cisneros (D-CA)","Scott Wallace (D-PA)","Someone else"],"target":"David Trone (D-MD)"}
{"Question":"Which current candidate\u00a0for the U.S. Senate\u00a0will the Center for Responsive Politics list as having raised the most money\u00a0this election cycle?","Started_time":"2018-10-19","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"This question will be suspended on 5 November and resolved using data retrieved on 1 December 2018 from Opensecrets.org, and by selecting \"Current Candidates Only\" and \"Current Cycle Only.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"Rick Scott (R-FL)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"Claire McCaskill (D-MO)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bob Hugin":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)","Rick Scott (R-FL)","Claire McCaskill (D-MO)","Bob Hugin","Someone else"],"target":"Beto O'Rourke (D-TX)"}
{"Question":"In Weyerhaeuser Company v. US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), will the Supreme Court rule that the FWS erroneously applied the Endangered Species Act (ESA) to any private land in St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana?","Started_time":"2018-09-21","Closed_time":"2018-11-27","Challenges_list":["The 2018 SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the US dollar on 30 November 2018?","Started_time":"2018-08-22","Closed_time":"2018-11-29","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 5.00 and 6.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than 6.00 but less than 7.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"7.00 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 5.00","Between 5.00 and 6.00, inclusive","More than 6.00 but less than 7.00","7.00 or more"],"target":"Between 5.00 and 6.00, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which party will hold a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2018-02-14","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (NY Times, The Washington Post, Ballotpedia). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference. The President of the Senate will not count as a senator for the seat count, but will determine the majority party in the case that both parties hold 50 seats.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Democratic Party, with 53 senators or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Democratic Party, with less than 53 senators":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Republican party, with less than 53 senators":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66%"},"Republican Party, with 53 senators or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"}},"choices":["Democratic Party, with 53 senators or more","Democratic Party, with less than 53 senators","Republican party, with less than 53 senators","Republican Party, with 53 senators or more"],"target":"Republican Party, with 53 senators or more"}
{"Question":"Who will win Mississippi's U.S. Senate special election runoff?","Started_time":"2018-11-16","Closed_time":"2018-11-27","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"After neither candidate won more than 50% of the vote in the general election (Cindy Hyde-Smith won 41.5% and Mike Espy won 40.6%), a runoff election has been scheduled for 27 November 2018 (The Washington Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Mike Espy (D)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)","Mike Espy (D)"],"target":"Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)"}
{"Question":"How many House seats held by Democrats from congressional districts carried by Donald Trump in 2016 will be won by Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2018-07-25","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"1 seat or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"Between 5 and 7 seats, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 8 and 10 seats, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 11 and 13 seats, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["1 seat or less","Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive","Between 5 and 7 seats, inclusive","Between 8 and 10 seats, inclusive","Between 11 and 13 seats, inclusive"],"target":"Between 2 and 4 seats, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many House seats held by Republicans from congressional districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 will be won by Democrats in the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2018-07-25","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"5 seats or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6 and 10 seats, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 11 and 15 seats, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"Between 16 and 20 seats, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Between 21 and 25 seats, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["5 seats or less","Between 6 and 10 seats, inclusive","Between 11 and 15 seats, inclusive","Between 16 and 20 seats, inclusive","Between 21 and 25 seats, inclusive"],"target":"Between 21 and 25 seats, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which party will hold a majority in the US House of Representatives after the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2018-02-14","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Midterm elections are scheduled for 6 November 2018 (NY Times, Washington Post). Independents will be counted for the party with which they caucus or conference.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"Democratic Party, with less than 230 representatives":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Republican Party, with less than 230 representatives":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Republican Party, with 230 or more representatives":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives","Democratic Party, with less than 230 representatives","Republican Party, with less than 230 representatives","Republican Party, with 230 or more representatives"],"target":"Democratic Party, with 230 or more representatives"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Georgia in the 2018 election?","Started_time":"2018-09-21","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The Georgia gubernatorial election will take place on 6 November 2018. Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams is running against Republican nominee Brian Kemp (Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Stacey Abrams (D)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"Brian Kemp (R)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Stacey Abrams (D)","Brian Kemp (R)","Someone else"],"target":"Brian Kemp (R)"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected senator from Florida in the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2018-07-18","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Bill Nelson (D)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Rick Scott (R)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Bill Nelson (D)","Rick Scott (R)","Someone else"],"target":"Rick Scott (R)"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected senator from Arizona in the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2018-09-21","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"Republican nominee Martha McSally is running against Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema in the 2018 midterm elections (Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Martha McSally (R)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Kyrsten Sinema (D)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Martha McSally (R)","Kyrsten Sinema (D)","Someone else"],"target":"Kyrsten Sinema (D)"}
{"Question":"Will the Democrats gain control of Congress in the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2017-12-15","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["Global Judgment Challenge 2018"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Thirty-four Senate seats and all four hundred thirty-five seats in the United States House of Representatives are up for election in 2018 (CNN, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Yes, both chambers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Yes, the Senate, but not the House of Representatives":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Yes, the House of Representatives, but not the Senate":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"}},"choices":["No","Yes, both chambers","Yes, the Senate, but not the House of Representatives","Yes, the House of Representatives, but not the Senate"],"target":"Yes, the House of Representatives, but not the Senate"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Florida in the 2018 election?","Started_time":"2018-09-14","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The Florida gubernatorial election will take place on 6 November 2018. Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum is running against Republican nominee Ron DeSantis (Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ron DeSantis (R)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Andrew Gillum (D)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Ron DeSantis (R)","Andrew Gillum (D)","Someone else"],"target":"Ron DeSantis (R)"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected senator from Texas in the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2018-09-07","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ted Cruz (R)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Beto O'Rourke (D)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Ted Cruz (R)","Beto O'Rourke (D)","Someone else"],"target":"Ted Cruz (R)"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Wisconsin in the 2018 election?","Started_time":"2018-09-14","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The Wisconsin gubernatorial election will take place on 6 November 2018. Democratic nominee Tony Evers is running against Republican incumbent Scott Walker (Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Scott Walker (R)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"Tony Evers (D)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Scott Walker (R)","Tony Evers (D)","Someone else"],"target":"Tony Evers (D)"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected senator from West Virginia in the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2018-07-18","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Manchin (D)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"Patrick Morrisey (R)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Manchin (D)","Patrick Morrisey (R)","Someone else"],"target":"Joe Manchin (D)"}
{"Question":"Will Dean Heller (R-NV) be re-elected this November?","Started_time":"2018-04-04","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected senator from North Dakota in the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2018-07-18","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Heidi Heitkamp (D)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Kevin Cramer (R)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Heidi Heitkamp (D)","Kevin Cramer (R)","Someone else"],"target":"Kevin Cramer (R)"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected senator from Indiana in the 2018 midterm elections?","Started_time":"2018-07-18","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Joe Donnelly (D)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"},"Mike Braun (R)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Joe Donnelly (D)","Mike Braun (R)","Someone else"],"target":"Mike Braun (R)"}
{"Question":"Will Claire McCaskill (D-MO) be re-elected this November?","Started_time":"2018-03-14","Closed_time":"2018-11-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"Sen. Claire McCaskill is seeking re-election to the United States Senate on 6 November 2018. Attorney General Josh Hawley currently leads the Republican field (Real Clear Politics).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the government of Iran issue foreign currency denominated bonds?","Started_time":"2017-11-14","Closed_time":"2018-11-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Iran has not issued a foreign currency denominated bond since it issued euro-denominated bonds in 2002. After the nuclear deal speculation rose about a bond offering (The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The Financial Tribune) and Iran has been in discussions with ratings agencies (Gulf News, The Financial Tribune).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 February 2018":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 February and 30 April 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 November 2018":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 February 2018","Between 1 February and 30 April 2018, inclusive","Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive","Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive","Not before 1 November 2018"],"target":"Not before 1 November 2018"}
{"Question":"Who will win Brazil\u2019s presidential election runoff?","Started_time":"2018-10-12","Closed_time":"2018-10-28","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jair Bolsonaro":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Fernando Haddad":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Jair Bolsonaro","Fernando Haddad","Someone else"],"target":"Jair Bolsonaro"}
{"Question":"Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018?","Started_time":"2018-07-11","Closed_time":"2018-10-06","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?","Started_time":"2018-08-01","Closed_time":"2018-10-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"Senate Democrats, particularly those in states carried by President Trump in 2016, are being closely watched in the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation process (CNN, SCOTUSBlog). For the purposes of this question, both Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) will count. This question will remain open until a confirmation vote is held or until the last day of the 115th Congress. In the event Kavanaugh's confirmation is withdrawn, the question will be voided.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"1"}
{"Question":"How many times will the Federal Open Market Committee raise the federal funds rate between 7 March and 30 September 2018?","Started_time":"2018-03-07","Closed_time":"2018-09-30","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Investopedia). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC has meetings scheduled throughout the year, and there is internal debate about how quickly to raise rates (The Federal Reserve, The Federal Reserve, NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"3":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"3"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 1 October 2018?","Started_time":"2018-01-10","Closed_time":"2018-09-29","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators","Outcome will be determined by the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the Energy Information Administration.  Experts are projecting slight increases in 2018 (Energy Information Administration, Reuters,"],"Description":"The Economist).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $50 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $50 and $60 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $60 but less than $70 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Between $70 and $80 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58%"},"More than $80 per barrel":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"}},"choices":["Less than $50 per barrel","Between $50 and $60 per barrel, inclusive","More than $60 but less than $70 per barrel","Between $70 and $80 per barrel, inclusive","More than $80 per barrel"],"target":"More than $80 per barrel"}
{"Question":"When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality?","Started_time":"2017-11-14","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":["North Korea and Global Security"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2018":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2018 and 30 September 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 October 2018":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2018","Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive","Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive","Between 1 July 2018 and 30 September 2018, inclusive","Not before 1 October 2018"],"target":"Not before 1 October 2018"}
{"Question":"Where will the film \"Fahrenheit 11\/9\" rank for its first week in theaters?","Started_time":"2018-09-07","Closed_time":"2018-09-27","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"5 or lower":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["1","2","3","4","5 or lower"],"target":"5 or lower"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2018, will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?","Started_time":"2017-11-07","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":["North Korea and Global Security"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Observers of North Korean politics have speculated about various ways in which Kim's tenure might end abruptly, including military coup (The Daily Beast), assassination (The Telegraph), foreign intervention (The Week), or state collapse (The Brookings Institution). In the event that Kim reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kim returns in the interim, the question will remain open.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2018, will either Russia or the United States announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?","Started_time":"2018-01-10","Closed_time":"2018-09-30","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","US Policy"],"Description":"For more information on the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty see: U.S Department of State. Accusations of violations by both sides puts the future of the INF Treaty in question (Deutsche Welle).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2018, will Amazon announce where its second headquarters is to be located?","Started_time":"2017-12-12","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance","Technology"],"Description":"With 238 proposals submitted from 54 different states\/provinces (Amazon, World Time Zones), Amazon has said a selection for its second headquarters will be made in early 2018. News surrounding the possible location changes weekly","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, a city in the  Pacific, Alaskan or Hawaii-Aleutian Time Zones":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, a city in the Mountain Time Zone":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, a city in the Central Time Zone":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"Yes, a city in the Eastern, Atlantic, or Newfoundland Time Zones":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"Yes, in a time zone other than those listed":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"}},"choices":["Yes, a city in the  Pacific, Alaskan or Hawaii-Aleutian Time Zones","Yes, a city in the Mountain Time Zone","Yes, a city in the Central Time Zone","Yes, a city in the Eastern, Atlantic, or Newfoundland Time Zones","Yes, in a time zone other than those listed","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2018, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?","Started_time":"2017-12-12","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Business","Foreign Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"President Trump has repeated his campaign commitment to either negotiating better terms with Mexico and Canada or risk the United States withdrawing from NAFTA (CNN, Bloomberg, NAFTA Secretariat). Under Article 2205 of the agreement, any party can withdraw six months after providing written notice (NAFTA Secretariat).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2018, will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections?","Started_time":"2017-11-21","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Prime Minister Netanyahu faces an array of challenges, including ongoing investigations (NY Times, NY Times, Al-Monitor, Al-Monitor, The Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 October 2018?","Started_time":"2017-11-21","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Prime Minister Theresa May faces a number of leadership challenges as she navigates Brexit (Bloomberg, Evening Standard).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, someone from the Conservative Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, someone from the Labour Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, someone from a party other than the Labour or Conservative Parties":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes, someone from the Conservative Party","Yes, someone from the Labour Party","Yes, someone from a party other than the Labour or Conservative Parties","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 21 November 2017 and 30 September 2018, how will S&P next adjust the United Kingdom's long-term issuer credit rating?","Started_time":"2017-11-21","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Revisions to the \"outlook\" will not suffice. S&P and Fitch downgraded the United Kingdom after the 2016 Brexit vote, and Moody's did the same in September 2017. While S&P recently reaffirmed its AA rating, it cautioned that the risk of a disorderly Brexit may lead to a further downgrade (Reuters, Financial Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Up":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Down":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"No Adjustment":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"}},"choices":["Up","Down","No Adjustment"],"target":"No Adjustment"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new king of Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2018?","Started_time":"2017-11-21","Closed_time":"2018-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"After the appointment of Mohammed bin Salman as Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, recent developments have raised questions concerning the future of the kingdom.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Yes, someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"}},"choices":["Yes, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman","Yes, someone else","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2019, will South Korean President Moon Jae-in visit Pyongyang?","Started_time":"2018-06-06","Closed_time":"2018-09-18","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018","North Korea and Global Security"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"President Moon visiting Pyongyang is part of the Panmunjom Declaration signed by North and South Korea (The Washington Post, Yonhap News, The Washington Post)","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz In\u00e0cio Lula da Silva?","Started_time":"2018-04-18","Closed_time":"2018-09-11","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Lula's conviction and incarceration based upon corruption charges has cast doubt on his ability to run in Brazil's upcoming presidential election (The Economist, The Washington Post, MercoPress, The Economist).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will a member of China's Politburo Standing Committee visit North Korea?","Started_time":"2017-10-24","Closed_time":"2018-09-08","Challenges_list":["North Korea and Global Security"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Disputes over North Korea's nuclear and missile program have strained the relationship between the two allies (Council on Foreign Relations). The last high-level Chinese visit to Pyongyang was made by a member of the Politburo Standing Committee in 2015 (Bloomberg, Beyond Parallel).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 February 2018":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 February 2018 and 30 April 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Not before 1 November 2018":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"}},"choices":["Before 1 February 2018","Between 1 February 2018 and 30 April 2018, inclusive","Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive","Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive","Not before 1 November 2018"],"target":"Between 1 August 2018 and 31 October 2018, inclusive"}
{"Question":"In July 2018, how will the Chinese renminbi rank as an international payments currency according to SWIFT?","Started_time":"2017-08-08","Closed_time":"2018-07-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Data for July 2018 is due to be released in SWIFT's August 2018 RMB Tracker (SWIFT).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"#1 - #3, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"#4 - #7, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than #7":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["#1 - #3, inclusive","#4 - #7, inclusive","More than #7"],"target":"#4 - #7, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Joe Arpaio win the Republican Party nomination for the Arizona U.S. Senate seat currently held by Jeff Flake?","Started_time":"2018-01-24","Closed_time":"2018-08-28","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"Former Sheriff Joe Arpaio has announced that he is running in Arizona for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Jeff Flake (NY Times, Reuters, The Washington Post). The primary election is scheduled to take place on 28 August 2018 (Arizona Secretary of State).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which party will win Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election?","Started_time":"2018-04-04","Closed_time":"2018-08-07","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Republican Party":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"Democratic Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Other":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Republican Party","Democratic Party","Other"],"target":"Republican Party"}
{"Question":"How many high school students will play eleven-player football in the 2017\/18 season?","Started_time":"2017-09-01","Closed_time":"2018-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News","In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Health","Sports"],"Description":"A recently published study on chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) found traces of the degenerative brain disease not only in former NFL players, but in college and high school football players as well (The Journal of the American Medical Association, NY Times, ESPN).  Eleven-player football enrollment declined by approximately 23K players from the 2015-16 season to the 2016-17 season. Outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS) for the 2017-18 season.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1,030,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 1,030,000 and 1,040,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"More than 1,040,000 but less than 1,050,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Between 1,050,000 and 1,060,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"More than 1,060,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1,030,000","Between 1,030,000 and 1,040,000, inclusive","More than 1,040,000 but less than 1,050,000","Between 1,050,000 and 1,060,000, inclusive","More than 1,060,000"],"target":"Between 1,030,000 and 1,040,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018, how many countries will submit written notification to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC?","Started_time":"2017-03-16","Closed_time":"2018-03-16","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy"],"Description":"Burundi, South Africa, and Gambia submitted official notification to the UN of their intent to withdraw from the International Criminal Court in 2016, but South Africa and Gambia later withdrew their notification (Foreign Policy, International Criminal Court, NY Times). According to the Rome statute, a state must submit written notification to the Secretary-General of the United Nations of its intent to withdraw; the withdrawal takes effect one year after submission (see Article 127.1 on page 56 of the Rome Statute here). All notifications regarding the Rome Statute can be found here by selecting \"Treaty Reference: XVIII-10\". Any country that submits a notification between 14 March 2017 and 14 March 2018 will count, regardless of whether it later withdraws that notification.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3-5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3-5","More than 5"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"Between 8 August 2017 and 7 August 2018, how many governments, from among Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, will have their long term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?","Started_time":"2017-08-08","Closed_time":"2018-08-07","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Recent macroeconomic developments have raised concerns regarding the debt profile of several GCC countries (Reuters, Reuters, Reuters, Gulf News, Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4"],"target":"3"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2019, which company from among Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft will be the first to reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion?","Started_time":"2018-06-20","Closed_time":"2018-08-02","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Business","Finance"],"Description":"Leading tech companies have seen rapid increases in market capitalization (Financial Times, Reuters).\u00a0Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" reported by Bloomberg for Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT).\u00a0 If two or more companies reach an end-of-day market capitalization of $1 trillion on the same day, the question will resolve on the company with the higher market capitalization.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Apple":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Amazon":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Alphabet":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Microsoft":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Apple","Amazon","Alphabet","Microsoft","None of the above"],"target":"Apple"}
{"Question":"Between 11 April 2018 and 31 July 2018, will Chinese tariffs on any US aircraft take effect?","Started_time":"2018-04-11","Closed_time":"2018-08-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy"],"Description":"The first set of China's retaliatory tariffs took effect on 1 April 2018 (NY Times, Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China), and on 4 April they announced plans for further tariffs on a range of imports, including aircraft, that have not yet taken effect (CNBC). China has indicated that their implementation is dependent on whether the US follows through on its additional tariffs (Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will it be announced that the Kaesong Industrial Complex is reopening?","Started_time":"2017-08-01","Closed_time":"2018-07-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)","North Korea and Global Security"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Kaesong Industrial Complex, the hallmark of peaceful engagement between North Korea and South Korea during the previous sunshine period, was closed in February 2016 after North Korea's fourth nuclear test (BBC, The Guardian). Moon Jae-In, South Korea's new President promised to seek rapprochement with North Korea, including by re-opening Kaesong (The Diplomat, The Korea Herald).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 November 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 November 2017 and 31 January 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 February 2018 and 30 April 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Not before 1 August 2018":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Before 1 November 2017","Between 1 November 2017 and 31 January 2018, inclusive","Between 1 February 2018 and 30 April 2018, inclusive","Between 1 May 2018 and 31 July 2018, inclusive","Not before 1 August 2018"],"target":"Not before 1 August 2018"}
{"Question":"When will Saudi Arabia announce the reopening of its land border with Qatar?","Started_time":"2017-11-21","Closed_time":"2018-08-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Temporary reopenings will not suffice (e.g., The Guardian). On 5 June 2017, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE cut diplomatic relations with Qatar, embargoing goods, closing borders, and requiring Qatari citizens to leave their countries (BBC, The Cipher Brief).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 February 2018":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 February and 30 April 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 May and 31 July 2018, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Not before 1 August 2018":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"}},"choices":["Before 1 February 2018","Between 1 February and 30 April 2018, inclusive","Between 1 May and 31 July 2018, inclusive","Not before 1 August 2018"],"target":"Not before 1 August 2018"}
{"Question":"Will the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) win an overall majority of seats in the National Assembly in the 2018 general election?","Started_time":"2018-06-13","Closed_time":"2018-07-25","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Elections are scheduled to be held on 25 July 2018 and Nawaz Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML-N, remains popular despite the corruption charges leveled against Sharif (The Economist, NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 20 July 2018, will Audi sell or lease a motor vehicle with Traffic Jam Pilot?","Started_time":"2018-01-24","Closed_time":"2018-07-20","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"The Society of Automotive Engineers uses six levels (zero through five) to classify the level of autonomy in vehicles (Car and Driver). Within the ongoing debate on the best development path for autonomous vehicle technology, the viability and safety of vehicles with Level 3 autonomy in contrast to Level 4 autonomy is seen as most salient (The Economist). As such, different companies are advancing different strategies (Inverse). Audi's development of Level 3 autonomy capabilities with its Traffic Jam Pilot make it a pivotal case to watch in the context of this debate (Audi, Pocket-Lint, Practical Motoring).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 21 July 2017 and 20 July 2018, will any major automaker announce a date after which they will sell only electric or hybrid vehicles?","Started_time":"2017-07-21","Closed_time":"2018-07-20","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"For the purposes of this question, \"major automakers\" are any of the car brands or whole car companies identified in this infographic. Volvo recently announced that starting in 2019 all new models it produces will be electric or hybrid (Volvo, Forbes). Announcements that only apply to a certain market segment or geographic location will not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"As of 1 July 2018, how many manufacturers will hold permits for driverless testing of autonomous vehicles in California?","Started_time":"2018-04-18","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge","The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"For years, California has issued permits for testing of autonomous vehicles, provided that drivers remain in the car (California DMV, California DMV, The Economist). On 2 April 2018, the California DMV was authorized to approve permits for manufacturer's driverless testing of autonomous vehicles (California DMV, San Francisco Chronicle).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"Between 1 and 3, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Between 4 and 6, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7 and 9, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"10 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","Between 1 and 3, inclusive","Between 4 and 6, inclusive","Between 7 and 9, inclusive","10 or more"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?","Started_time":"2017-12-08","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by California DMV data. Multiple companies have been approved to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in California. According to the California Code of Regulations Section 227.44, companies shall report within 10 days any accident originating from the operation of an autonomous vehicle on a public road that resulted in property damage, bodily injury or death. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and resolved on 20 July to allow reports covering late June to be included.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 10 and 19, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"},"Between 20 and 29, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"Between 30 and 39, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"40 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 10","Between 10 and 19, inclusive","Between 20 and 29, inclusive","Between 30 and 39, inclusive","40 or more"],"target":"Between 20 and 29, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2018, will Tesla announce that it will build a factory to manufacture electric vehicles in China?","Started_time":"2017-10-20","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Environment"],"Description":"In its quest for global growth, Tesla is looking to expand its manufacturing capacity. There is speculation that it might build a new factory in China, but China's requirements for foreign automakers partnering with Chinese companies may prove an obstacle (Bloomberg, Electrek). An announcement by Tesla regarding a factory that only manufactures component parts of an electric vehicle will not count (e.g. Electrek).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, manufacturing without a Chinese partner":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Yes, manufacturing with a Chinese partner":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"}},"choices":["Yes, manufacturing without a Chinese partner","Yes, manufacturing with a Chinese partner","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many NATO members will spend 2% or more of their GDP on defense in 2018?","Started_time":"2017-03-21","Closed_time":"2018-07-10","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the first NATO defense expenditure report that includes data for 2018 (NATO). Estimates for 2018 will count. According to the July 2016 report (Table 3 NATO), which included an estimate for 2016 spending, five countries spent 2% or more of their GDP on defense.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"5":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"6 to 8, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"More than 8":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Less than 5","5","6 to 8, inclusive","More than 8"],"target":"5"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2018, will the UN Security Council pass a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan?","Started_time":"2017-05-09","Closed_time":"2018-07-13","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"A non-mandatory embargo will not count. With warnings of ethnic cleansing and war-induced famine, the US and others have been pushing for an arms embargo (ECR, Aljazeera, NY Times).  Examples of mandatory arms embargoes imposed by the UNSC include the Central African Republic in 2013 (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)), Yemen in 2015 (SIPRI), and Libya in 2011 (SIPRI).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which country will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup?","Started_time":"2018-02-07","Closed_time":"2018-07-15","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Society","Sports"],"Description":"The 2018 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to take place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018 (The Economist). Thirty two teams qualified for the tournament and are set to compete (FIFA). For the latest rankings, see: FIFA. To enable forecasting during the game, this question will remain open through the end of the championship game but will only be scored through 12:30 pm ET.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Argentina":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Belgium":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Brazil":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"France":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"Germany":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Poland":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Portugal":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Russia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Spain":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Switzerland":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"}},"choices":["Argentina","Belgium","Brazil","France","Germany","Poland","Portugal","Russia","Spain","Switzerland","Another country"],"target":"France"}
{"Question":"Will Tesla stock (TSLA:US) close below $200 on 29 June 2018?","Started_time":"2018-04-11","Closed_time":"2018-06-29","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"A combination of missed production targets, a deadly accident, high levels of debt, and a downgraded credit rating have put stress on Tesla's stock price (CNBC). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 12 May 2017 and 1 July 2018, will two or more states ratify the Equal Rights Amendment?","Started_time":"2017-05-12","Closed_time":"2018-06-30","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In US v. California, will the District Court grant any preliminary injunctions against enforcement of California's sanctuary laws\"?","Started_time":"2018-06-06","Closed_time":"2018-07-05","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"On 6 March, the Department of Justice filed a lawsuit with the United States District Court for the Eastern District of California over three so-called \"sanctuary laws\" by the State of California, Assembly Bill 450, Senate Bill 54, and Assembly Bill 103 (Politico, USA Today, The Sacramento Bee). A preliminary injunction granted that covers part of a law subject to the lawsuit will count as \"yes\" for that entire law.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Yes, against Senate Bill 54 only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, against Assembly Bill 103 only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, against two or more of the bills":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52%"}},"choices":["Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only","Yes, against Senate Bill 54 only","Yes, against Assembly Bill 103 only","Yes, against two or more of the bills","No"],"target":"Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only"}
{"Question":"In June 2018, what will be the percentage change from a year ago for U.S. total private average hourly earnings of all employees?","Started_time":"2018-05-16","Closed_time":"2018-06-30","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.35%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"Between 2.35% and 2.50%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"More than 2.50% but less than 2.65%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Between 2.65% and 2.80%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.80%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.35%","Between 2.35% and 2.50%, inclusive","More than 2.50% but less than 2.65%","Between 2.65% and 2.80%, inclusive","More than 2.80%"],"target":"Between 2.65% and 2.80%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2018, will the European Council announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership?","Started_time":"2018-05-09","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2019, will Scott Pruitt cease to be Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency?","Started_time":"2018-06-20","Closed_time":"2018-07-06","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Environment","US Politics"],"Description":"Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt faces multiple federal inquiries into his management practices at the agency (Bloomberg, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many Chevrolet Bolt EV's will be sold between January and June 2018?","Started_time":"2017-08-18","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"Chevrolet's new electric vehicle, the Chevrolet Bolt EV, is being rolled out country wide in the fall of 2017 (The Green Car Report). Outcome will be determined by the 2018 total listed for Chevrolet Bolt EV on the InsideEV website (InsideEV) after the June 2018 data has been released.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 10,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"10,001 - 15,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"15,001 - 20,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"20,001 - 25,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 25,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 10,000","10,001 - 15,000","15,001 - 20,000","20,001 - 25,000","More than 25,000"],"target":"Less than 10,000"}
{"Question":"What will be the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar on 29 June 2018?","Started_time":"2018-05-16","Closed_time":"2018-06-28","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.90%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.90% and 2.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2.00% but less than 2.10%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Between 2.10% and 2.20% inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"More than 2.20%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.90%","Between 1.90% and 2.00%, inclusive","More than 2.00% but less than 2.10%","Between 2.10% and 2.20% inclusive","More than 2.20%"],"target":"More than 2.00% but less than 2.10%"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing spot price of an ounce of gold on 29 June 2018?","Started_time":"2018-05-16","Closed_time":"2018-06-28","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing spot price reported by Bloomberg.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1,200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1,200 and $1,250, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"More than $1,250 but less than $1,300":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"Between $1,300 and $1,350, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than $1,350":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $1,200","Between $1,200 and $1,250, inclusive","More than $1,250 but less than $1,300","Between $1,300 and $1,350, inclusive","More than $1,350"],"target":"More than $1,250 but less than $1,300"}
{"Question":"Between 9 May 2018 and 29 June 2018, how many Cabinet-level officials in the Trump Administration will cease to hold a cabinet-level position?","Started_time":"2018-05-09","Closed_time":"2018-06-29","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The Trump administration has seen turnover increasing for its top officials (The Washington Post).  Cabinet-level positions refer to the Vice President, the White House Chief of Staff, the 15 Cabinet members (Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing and Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury, and Veterans Affairs, and the Attorney General), and 7 other cabinet-level officials (the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the United States Trade Representative, the Representative of the United States to the United Nations, the Administrator of the Small Business Administration, the Director of National Intelligence, and the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency). Cabinet members who cease to hold a cabinet-level position to take another cabinet-level position will not count for the resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"Of the seven Russian CEOs and government leaders listed below, how many will cease to hold their current positions by 1 July 2018?","Started_time":"2017-03-21","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"This question refers to the following CEOs and government leaders: Dmitry Medvedev (Prime Minister), Dmitry Kozak (Deputy Prime Minister), Sergey Shoygu (Defense Minister), Alexander Bastrykin (Investigative Committee leader), Nikolai Patrushev (Head, Security Council of Russia), Igor Sechin (Rosneft CEO), and Alexey Miller (Gazprom CEO). In the event that one of the listed officials moves to a different top position as a cabinet member (The Russian Government) or CEO of Rosneft, Gazprom, SberBank, or VTB, it will not count toward the total. Since mid-2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin has removed from prominent positions four close allies: Sergei Ivanov, Andrei Belyaninov, Viktor Ivanov, and Vladimir Yakunin (NY Times, NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0 to 1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"2 to 3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"4 to 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"6 to 7":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0 to 1","2 to 3","4 to 5","6 to 7"],"target":"0 to 1"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?","Started_time":"2017-07-21","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Tesla\u2019s new Model 3, its most affordable car model, is targeted at the mass market (Tesla, Fortune). With more than 400,000 Model 3 reservations on the books, Tesla aims to ramp up production quickly, with a stated goal of delivering 100,000-200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017 (Teslarati).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 50,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"More than 50,000 but less than 100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 100,000 and 200,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 200,000 but less than 300,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"300,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 50,000","More than 50,000 but less than 100,000","Between 100,000 and 200,000 inclusive","More than 200,000 but less than 300,000","300,000 or more"],"target":"Less than 50,000"}
{"Question":"How many fatalities will result from fighting between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and either the Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army or the armed forces of Armenia between 20 June 2017 and 1 July 2018?","Started_time":"2017-06-20","Closed_time":"2018-06-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"All fatalities resulting from the fighting, including civilians and third party actors will count. The once \u201cfrozen\u201d conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh has shown signs of escalation (Reuters, Aljazeera, Council on Foreign Relations). The answer options represent different orders of magnitude of conflict escalation. Fatality estimates often vary across sources and are typically reported in ranges. If the fatality estimates from open source media coverage produce a range that crosses two of the answer bins, GJ will generally use the higher end of the range to determine the resolution of the question, but will also consider the number of sources that put the high end of the range within each bin as well as how much of the total range falls within each bin.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"10-99":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"100-999":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"1,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 10","10-99","100-999","1,000 or more"],"target":"10-99"}
{"Question":"Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2018?","Started_time":"2017-09-12","Closed_time":"2018-06-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The Iranian nuclear deal established a Joint Commission to adjudicate disputes between the IAEA and Iran over access to undeclared nuclear facilities (Iran Watch).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela?","Started_time":"2017-06-06","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)","The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Maduro faces a political crisis in Venezuela (Reuters, Washington Post). In the event that Maduro reportedly disappears or flees the capital, a three-week waiting period will be observed, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Maduro returns in the interim, the question will remain open.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive,":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive,":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 July 2018":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2017","Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive,","Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive,","Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018","Not before 1 July 2018"],"target":"Not before 1 July 2018"}
{"Question":"On 29 June 2018, how many public hydrogen fueling stations will be available in the United States?","Started_time":"2018-02-28","Closed_time":"2018-06-29","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society","Environment"],"Description":"Hydrogen fueling infrastructure is expanding (U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC)). Air Liquide, in partnership with Toyota, has announced the creation of a chain of 12 hydrogen fueling stations in the Northeast, stretching from New York to Boston (NY Times). Honda has also announced that an additional 36 stations will be built in California (LA Times). The State of California has earmarked $200 million for as many as 100 new hydrogen stations in the next several years, and car manufacturers and energy providers are working together to make it happen (Green Tech Media). This question will be resolved using data for public hydrogen fueling stations from the AFDC.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 45":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between 45 and 55, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 55":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 45","Between 45 and 55, inclusive","More than 55"],"target":"Fewer than 45"}
{"Question":"How many of the following teams will not qualify for the 2018 FIFA World Cup's Round of 16: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Portugal, Russia, Spain, and Switzerland?","Started_time":"2018-05-09","Closed_time":"2018-06-28","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"\"The 2018 FIFA World Cup starts with the group stage, and the top two teams from each group qualify for the Round of 16. For more information about the World Cup and its matches, please visit FIFA.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2","3","4 or more"],"target":"1"}
{"Question":"Will al-Shabaab attack a US diplomatic facility in Africa before 1 July 2018?","Started_time":"2017-07-25","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Al-Shabaab has conducted attacks in Somalia and Kenya (BBC, ABC News, The Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2018, will Ashraf Ghani cease to be president of Afghanistan?","Started_time":"2017-11-21","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The stability of Afghanistan's government remains tenuous (LA Times, Council on Foreign Relations, The Diplomat). In the event that Ghani reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJI will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Ghani returns in the interim, the question will remain open.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2018, will a date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status?","Started_time":"2017-03-21","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"During the U.K. Brexit referendum, a majority of Northern Irish voted to remain in the EU (Newsweek). The United Kingdom's planned exit from the European Union, and Sinn Fein's strong showing in the recent election, has intensified the issue of Northern Ireland's governance status (Irish News, Financial Times). The 1998 Good Friday Agreement gives Northern Ireland the right to hold a referendum, or \"border poll\" on unification with Ireland, and some have floated the idea of an independence referendum (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2018, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law nationwide?","Started_time":"2017-08-15","Closed_time":"2018-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte recently proclaimed martial law in Mindanao and nearby islands (Financial Times, The Diplomat), and has considered nationwide martial law (Aljazeera, Vocativ).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"On 29 June 2018, how many public DC Fast Charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States?","Started_time":"2017-09-08","Closed_time":"2018-06-29","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a \"chicken and egg\" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC Fast Charging stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes.  This question will be resolved using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center.  Data on public DC Fast Charging stations can be found by clicking on \"more search options\" and selecting only \"DC Fast\" on the \"Charger types\" drop-down menu. The relevant number is \"electric stations.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2,400":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"Between 2,400 and 2,700, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"Between 2,701 and 3,100, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3,100":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2,400","Between 2,400 and 2,700, inclusive","Between 2,701 and 3,100, inclusive","More than 3,100"],"target":"Less than 2,400"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2018, will the Council of the European Union adopt a directive on taxation of digital business activities?","Started_time":"2018-05-16","Closed_time":"2018-06-30","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will S&P, Moody's, or Fitch change Chile's long-term foreign currency rating before 29 June 2018?","Started_time":"2018-05-16","Closed_time":"2018-06-28","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional?","Started_time":"2018-01-24","Closed_time":"2018-06-27","Challenges_list":["The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Policy"],"Description":"Mark Janus, an Illinois government employee, is asking the Supreme Court to overrule Abood v. Detroit Board of Education (SCOTUS Blog, Justia US Law, The Atlantic, The Supreme Court of the United States). Under Abood, unions are allowed to collect agency fees fron non-union employees to cover costs related to collective-bargaining. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2018 NBA Most Valuable Player Award?","Started_time":"2018-06-06","Closed_time":"2018-06-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"James Harden, Houston Rockets":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"}},"choices":["Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans","James Harden, Houston Rockets","LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers"],"target":"James Harden, Houston Rockets"}
{"Question":"What will be the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. for the week ending June 22?","Started_time":"2018-05-16","Closed_time":"2018-06-22","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 4.75%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4.75% and 4.85%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"More than 4.85% but less than 4.95%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 4.95% and 5.05%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5.05%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 4.75%","Between 4.75% and 4.85%, inclusive","More than 4.85% but less than 4.95%","Between 4.95% and 5.05%, inclusive","More than 5.05%"],"target":"Between 4.75% and 4.85%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act?","Started_time":"2018-03-14","Closed_time":"2018-06-26","Challenges_list":["The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health"],"Description":"In 2016, the National Institute of Family and Life Advocates (NIFLA) challenged the constitutionality of California's FACT Act's requirement that licensed healthcare providers post notices about the availability of state abortion programs, asking for a preliminary injunction of the law. That injunction was denied; a decision which was upheld by the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (Oyez) (SCOTUSblog). NIFLA is challenging this ruling in the Supreme Court (SCOTUS Blog) (Roll Call). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution?","Started_time":"2018-04-04","Closed_time":"2018-06-26","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge","The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and will rule that it does":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, and will rule that it does not":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"}},"choices":["Yes, and will rule that it does","Yes, and will rule that it does not","No"],"target":"Yes, and will rule that it does not"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 22 June 2018?","Started_time":"2018-05-16","Closed_time":"2018-06-21","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Oil prices have recently been on an upward trajectory, in part over geopolitics in the Middle East (Financial Times). Outcome will be determined by the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. For historical prices on a slight delay, see: EIA, tick the box for 'Brent - Europe' and click 'Graph' to generate.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $70 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $70 and $75 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"More than $75 but less than $80 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"Between $80 and $85 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $85 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $70 per barrel","Between $70 and $75 per barrel, inclusive","More than $75 but less than $80 per barrel","Between $80 and $85 per barrel, inclusive","More than $85 per barrel"],"target":"Between $70 and $75 per barrel, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing value for the Bovespa Stock Market Index on 22 June 2018?","Started_time":"2018-05-09","Closed_time":"2018-06-22","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Brazil's economy is facing increasing headwinds (Reuters, Financial Times). This question will be resolved using the closing value reported by Bloomberg for 22 June 2018.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 70,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Between 70,000 and 80,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"More than 80,000 but less than 90,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 90,000 and 100,000 inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"100,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 70,000","Between 70,000 and 80,000 inclusive","More than 80,000 but less than 90,000","Between 90,000 and 100,000 inclusive","100,000 or more"],"target":"Between 70,000 and 80,000 inclusive"}
{"Question":"In Carpenter v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was unconstitutional?","Started_time":"2017-11-03","Closed_time":"2018-06-22","Challenges_list":["The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In 2016, U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit ruled that prosecutors legally used historical cellular phone location records obtained without a warrant to convict two men, Timothy Carpenter and Timothy Sanders, of armed robbery. Those men contend that the seizure of those records without a warrant was unconstitutional. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals?","Started_time":"2018-01-16","Closed_time":"2018-06-22","Challenges_list":["The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In 2016, the US Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces dismissed (SCOTUS Blog) Nicole Dalmazzi\u00cds objections to Judge Martin Mitchell serving as an appellate military judge on the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals (AFCCA) while  also serving as a military judge on the United States Court of Military Commission Review (USCMCR). Dalmazzi claimed that Judge Mitchell\u00cds appointment to the USCMCR disqualified him to serve as an appellate judge on the AFCCA due to the statutory ban on dual-officeholding by civil servants (SCOTUS Blog, SCOTUS Blog). Dalmazzi also claims that simultaneous service on both the AFCCA and the USCMCR violates the Appointments Clause of the US constitution. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state?","Started_time":"2018-03-14","Closed_time":"2018-06-21","Challenges_list":["The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"Currently, under the Supreme Court\u2019s decision in Quill Corp. v. North Dakota , states and their political subdivisions are not permitted to impose sales taxes on sales made by firms that do not have a physical presence within their jurisdiction (Cornell Law). This decision has prevented state and local governments from imposing sales taxes on Internet sales (Reuters). The state of South Dakota is asking the Supreme Court to revisit its decision in Quill (SCOTUS Blog, Bloomberg BNA, E-Commerce Times).  The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Gill v. Whitford, will the Supreme Court rule that any part of Wisconsin's redistricting plan is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander?","Started_time":"2017-09-01","Closed_time":"2018-06-20","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge","The SCOTUS Challenge","In the News","In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"In November 2016, the District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin ruled 2-1 that the state legislature's redistricting plan was unconstitutional (Reuters, NBC News, SCOTUS Blog). The Supreme Court agreed in July 2017 to hear an appeal (NY Times).  Oral arguments are currently scheduled to be heard on 3 October 2017.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will the closing price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 15 June 2018?","Started_time":"2018-05-09","Closed_time":"2018-06-15","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the closing price reported by Bloomberg for 15 June 2018.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 3.3000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3.3000 and 3.6000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.6000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Less than 3.3000","Between 3.3000 and 3.6000, inclusive","More than 3.6000"],"target":"More than 3.6000"}
{"Question":"In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional?","Started_time":"2018-02-28","Closed_time":"2018-06-14","Challenges_list":["The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"Last year, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit ruled that Minnesota Statute \u00a4 211B.11, banning political apparel at the polling place, did not violate the federal constitution (SCOTUS Blog, The Office of the Revisor of Statutes, Minnesota). Plaintiffs appealed to the Supreme Court, asserting that the law violates First Amendment protections for free speech. A Supreme Court ruling that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is as-applied unconstitutional will not count. For more information on what constitutes a \"facial\" challenge like the one in this case, as opposed to an \"as-applied\" challenge, see here. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will President Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong Un meet before 1 July 2018?","Started_time":"2018-03-21","Closed_time":"2018-06-11","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, in North Korea (excluding the DMZ)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, in South Korea (excluding the DMZ)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, in the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, in the United States":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, in China":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, in Russia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, in Mongolia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, in Switzerland":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, in Sweden":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, in international waters":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, somewhere not listed above":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, in North Korea (excluding the DMZ)","Yes, in South Korea (excluding the DMZ)","Yes, in the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)","Yes, in the United States","Yes, in China","Yes, in Russia","Yes, in Mongolia","Yes, in Switzerland","Yes, in Sweden","Yes, in international waters","Yes, somewhere not listed above","No"],"target":"Yes, somewhere not listed above"}
{"Question":"In Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute, will the Supreme Court rule that Ohio's supplemental process for voter registration list-maintenance is legal?","Started_time":"2017-11-03","Closed_time":"2018-06-11","Challenges_list":["The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In 2016, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit ruled that the state of Ohio's supplemental process  for purging the names of inactive voters from its rolls was illegal because it violated the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 and the Help America Vote Act of 2002. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no. Rulings about the content of confirmation notices will not affect the resolution of the question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price of Bitcoin on 8 June 2018, according to CNBC?","Started_time":"2018-05-09","Closed_time":"2018-06-08","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will be resolved based on the closing price reported at CNBC using the 1Y graph. The closing price can be found by hovering your cursor over the relevant date.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $8,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between $8,000 and $9,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $9,000 but less than $10,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $10,000 and $11,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$11,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $8,000","Between $8,000 and $9,000, inclusive","More than $9,000 but less than $10,000","Between $10,000 and $11,000, inclusive","$11,000 or more"],"target":"Less than $8,000"}
{"Question":"What will be the yield spread between the US 10 Year Treasury and the US 3 Month Treasury on 1 June 2018?","Started_time":"2018-05-09","Closed_time":"2018-06-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity percentage given by FRED.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 0.90":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"Between 0.90 and 1.10, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72%"},"More than 1.10 but less than 1.30":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.30 and 1.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 0.90","Between 0.90 and 1.10, inclusive","More than 1.10 but less than 1.30","Between 1.30 and 1.50, inclusive","More than 1.50"],"target":"Between 0.90 and 1.10, inclusive"}
{"Question":"In Masterpiece Cakeshop, Ltd. v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, will the Supreme Court rule that the application of a Colorado anti-discrimination law to compel Jack Phillips to make a cake for a same-sex wedding violates any of his First Amendment rights?","Started_time":"2017-11-03","Closed_time":"2018-06-04","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge","The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In 2015, the Colorado Court of Appeals ruled that Jack Phillips, owner of Masterpiece Cakeshop, Ltd, violated the Colorado Anti-Discrimination Act by refusing to make a cake for the wedding of a local gay couple. Phillips refused because of his religious beliefs regarding same-sex marriage.  The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 2 June 2018, will the Trump administration exempt Mexico from steel tariffs set to be imposed on 1 June 2018?","Started_time":"2018-05-16","Closed_time":"2018-06-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, permanently":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, temporarily":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, permanently","Yes, temporarily","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 15 August 2017 and 1 June 2018, how many European Union countries will announce the opening of an embassy in Libya?","Started_time":"2017-08-15","Closed_time":"2018-06-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"For the purposes of this question, the EU Delegation to Libya will count. The EU is actively monitoring the Libyan security situation and some countries are considering opening their embassies (Euractiv, European External Action Service, Press TV, CNN).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"1-2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"3-4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"more than 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1-2","3-4","more than 4"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"In US v. California, will the District Court grant any preliminary injunctions against enforcement of California's \u201csanctuary laws\"?","Started_time":"2018-03-21","Closed_time":"2018-06-01","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, against Senate Bill 54 only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, against Assembly Bill 103 only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, against two or more of the bills":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, against Assembly Bill 450 only","Yes, against Senate Bill 54 only","Yes, against Assembly Bill 103 only","Yes, against two or more of the bills","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2018, will a referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' Eighth Amendment pass?","Started_time":"2018-03-07","Closed_time":"2018-05-25","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Society","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"There is growing discussion regarding the repeal of Ireland's Eighth Amendment, which bans most abortions (Irish Statute Book, Irish Times). Prior to the referendum, the government will publish a bill outlining the exact text of the referendum (Irish Times, BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In Murphy v. NCAA, will the Supreme Court rule that Congress cannot prohibit New Jersey from amending or repealing its existing prohibitions on sports gambling?","Started_time":"2017-12-08","Closed_time":"2018-05-14","Challenges_list":["The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy","By a count of 7-2, the question closed with \"Yes\" with an end date of 14 May.","(SCOTUS)"],"Description":"In 2016, the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled that the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) prohibited the state of New Jersey from repealing certain laws regarding sports gambling (The Chicago Tribune). New Jersey appealed that decision to the Supreme Court, arguing that Congress does not have the authority to prohibit amendment or repeal of those laws (SCOTUSBlog, The Washington Post). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win the Republican Party primary for the Indiana U.S. Senate race in 2018?","Started_time":"2018-03-14","Closed_time":"2018-05-08","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The 2018 Indiana U.S. Senate race was described by Politico as being \"the GOP\u00cds best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats\" (Politico). The Republican primary is expected to be especially competitive and contentious (The Washington Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Luke Messer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Todd Rokita":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Mike Braun":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Luke Messer","Todd Rokita","Mike Braun","None of the above"],"target":"Mike Braun"}
{"Question":"Before 1 May 2018, will a ballistic missile defense system shoot at a North Korean missile launch?","Started_time":"2017-10-24","Closed_time":"2018-05-01","Challenges_list":["North Korea and Global Security","The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"In recent months, North Korea has increased the pace of its ballistic missile testing program. In response, many of its neighbors have invested in ballistic missile defense (New York Times, USNI, SCMP, The Diplomat).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the North Korean missile flight path will be interrupted":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Yes, but the North Korean missile flight path will NOT be interrupted":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the North Korean missile flight path will be interrupted","Yes, but the North Korean missile flight path will NOT be interrupted","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In Jesner v. Arab Bank, PLC, will the Supreme Court rule that aliens can sue a corporation under the Alien Tort Statute?","Started_time":"2017-11-03","Closed_time":"2018-04-24","Challenges_list":["The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In 2015, U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit ruled that the US Alien Tort Statute (ATS) did not permit lawsuits against corporations. In this case, Joseph Jesner and other plaintiffs filed suit against a Jordanian bank for its accused role in terrorist incidents outside of the United States. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in meet before 1 November 2018?","Started_time":"2017-10-24","Closed_time":"2018-04-26","Challenges_list":["North Korea and Global Security"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"South Korean President Moon Jae-in has said that he would be willing to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (The Guardian, NY Times, CNN, Straits Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In United States v. Microsoft Corp, will the Supreme Court rule that the government can use a warrant to compel the disclosure of records stored outside of the United States?","Started_time":"2017-12-01","Closed_time":"2018-04-17","Challenges_list":["The SCOTUS Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","US Policy"],"Description":"In 2016, the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit ruled that Microsoft did not have to comply with a warrant for records stored outside of the US, and the government appealed (SCOUTS Blog, Reuters).  The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its current term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as no.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Alexei Navalny be imprisoned or placed under house arrest between 10 January 2018 and 8 April 2018?","Started_time":"2018-01-10","Closed_time":"2018-04-06","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Navalny has been incarcerated many times for reasons ranging from unauthorized protests to embezzlement (Deutsche Welle, Bloomberg). Although the Central Election Committee of the Russian Federation has barred him from running in the upcoming presidential elections, Navalny has continued to express his political aspirations (The Economist, The Economist).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2018, will the water ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan meet to resume technical negotiations over the Renaissance Dam?","Started_time":"2018-02-07","Closed_time":"2018-04-05","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Water ministers refer to Egypt's Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Ethiopia's Minister of Water Irrigation and Electricity, and Sudan's Minister of Electricity and Water Resources. Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), located in Ethiopia, is more than halfway complete. However, ongoing technical negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have hit a roadblock as Egypt has concerns over its downstream access to Nile water (Arab News, Stratfor, Global Construction Review).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 April 2018, will President Trump sign legislation protecting DACA participants from deportation?","Started_time":"2017-10-20","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge","In the News","In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["US Policy"],"Description":"On September 5, Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced that no new applications under the Obama Administration-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program will be processed, and that renewals for those already granted permits under the program will be granted through the next six months (Chicago Sun Times, CNN). President Trump has called on Congress to pass legislation to codify the program before those six months end (Bloomberg). Legal protections of any duration will count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and that legislation will apply to all DACA participants":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, but that legislation will not apply to all DACA participants":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Yes, and that legislation will apply to all DACA participants","Yes, but that legislation will not apply to all DACA participants","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"On 30 March 2018, how many GitHub forks will Baidu's Apollo autonomous driving software have?","Started_time":"2017-09-08","Closed_time":"2018-03-30","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"In July 2017, the Chinese web services company Baidu released \"Apollo,\" an open source autonomous driving operating system (Apollo, Fossbytes). Apollo is available on a GitHub repository, where developers can download the code, modify it, and suggest changes to Baidu. Developers who want to contribute to the Apollo source code must \"fork\" the repository.  For more information on GitHub \"forks,\" visit GitHub's tutorial on the topic. This question will be resolved using Apollo's GitHub repository, which provides an ongoing tally of \"forks\" in the top right corner.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1,750":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,750 and 2,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2,001 and 3,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 3,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1,750","Between 1,750 and 2,000, inclusive","Between 2,001 and 3,000, inclusive","More than 3,000"],"target":"Between 2,001 and 3,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?","Started_time":"2018-03-14","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 2018 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship will be held on 1 April 2018 (NCAA). The names of the regional champions will be substituted in once known.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"A team from the Albany region":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A team from the Kansas City region":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52%"},"A team from the Spokane region":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"},"A team from the Lexington region":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["A team from the Albany region","A team from the Kansas City region","A team from the Spokane region","A team from the Lexington region"],"target":"A team from the Spokane region"}
{"Question":"Before 1 April 2018, will General Motors test an autonomous vehicle in New York City?","Started_time":"2017-11-17","Closed_time":"2018-04-01","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Society"],"Description":"Cruise Automation, the self-driving unit of General Motors, recently announced its intention to test autonomous Chevy Bolts in New York City a high regulation, high density location. Tests conducted with backup drivers or engineers in the car will count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Iran execute and\/or sponsor a low or higher level cyber attack against networks owned by a US entity between 19 September 2017 and 30 November 2017?","Started_time":"2017-09-19","Closed_time":"2017-11-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"At least part of the attack must occur during the question's open period.  The question will be suspended on 30 November 2017 and resolved on 31 January 2018 to allow for delayed reporting. The following levels of cyber attack will all count:  Low-Level Cyber Attacks create temporary and\/or localized disruption of services that are dependent on networked infrastructure but do not threaten the core functionality of critical infrastructure targets. For example, a series of distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks against banking websites-while widespread-would cause only temporary disruption of Internet access to customer's bank accounts.  They would not affect customer account balances or other banking services such as ATM withdrawals, nor would they disrupt the larger financial system, although the affected banks would incur losses because of the mitigation and other costs.Moderate-Level Cyber Attacks create localized, nonpersistent disruption to core functionality of critical services and functions but do not generate substantive systemic or national-level effects. For example, a cyber-attack that disrupted a single power plant for a couple of hours-equivalent to a temporary local power outage from a snow storm-would qualify as a moderate-level cyber attack.  High-Level Cyber Attacks disrupt critical infrastructure services and generate substantive systemic or national-level effects over an extended period of time. For example, a cyber attack that reduced oil pipeline transport across a key region and resulted in a spike in national oil prices over the course of a month would qualify as a high-level cyber attack. Catastrophic Cyber Attacks affect the fundamental viability of core government, military, or economic services or functions; or cause significant loss of life or widespread property damage. For example, a cyber attack against critical infrastructures that caused an economic depression would qualify as a catastrophic cyber attack. A US entity can be governmental, commercial, academic, nonprofit or an individual. For the question to resolve as 'yes', the government of Iran must sponsor or execute the attack.  Outcome will be determined by credible open source cybersecurity industry analysis or media reporting (e.g., Crowdstrike, FireEye, ThreatConnect, Symantec, McAfee, Reuters, BBC, AP).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between September 2017 and February 2018, how many people will be killed by sectarian actors in Nigeria?","Started_time":"2017-09-12","Closed_time":"2018-02-28","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Nigeria is facing increasing sectarian violence, even outside of violence attributed to Boko Haram (All Africa, Daily Post, Premium Times, IRIN). Outcome will be determined by the deaths attributed to \"Sectarian Actor\" on \"Graph 2: Deaths by Perpetrator\" on the Council on Foreign Relations Nigeria Security Tracker. The total for September through and February can be found by setting the start period at August 2017 and the end period at February 2018.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 500":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"500-750, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87%"},"More than 750 but less than 1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"1,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 500","500-750, inclusive","More than 750 but less than 1,000","1,000 or more"],"target":"500-750, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2018 Academy Award\u00ae for Best Picture?","Started_time":"2018-01-31","Closed_time":"2018-03-05","Challenges_list":["In the News","In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"The Academy Awards\u00ae take place on March 4th (The Oscars). To enable night of forecasting,  this question will remain open through the end of March 4th. Forecasts made through roughly 15 minutes prior to the award announcement will be scored.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Call Me by Your Name":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Darkest Hour":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Dunkirk":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Get Out":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Lady Bird":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Phantom Thread":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The Post":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The Shape of Water":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"}},"choices":["Call Me by Your Name","Darkest Hour","Dunkirk","Get Out","Lady Bird","Phantom Thread","The Post","The Shape of Water","Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"],"target":"The Shape of Water"}
{"Question":"Will Rachel Morrison win the 2018 Academy Award\u00ae for Best Cinematography?","Started_time":"2018-01-31","Closed_time":"2018-03-05","Challenges_list":["In the News","In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Society","Entertainment"],"Description":"Rachel Morrison is the first woman to be nominated for an Academy Award\u00ae for Best Cinematography (The Oscars, Variety). To enable night of forecasting,  this question will remain open through the end of March 4th. Forecasts made through roughly 15 minutes prior to the award announcement will be scored.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which country will win the most gold medals at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games?","Started_time":"2018-02-15","Closed_time":"2018-02-25","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Society","Sports"],"Description":"The 2018 Olympic Games are being held in Pyeongchang, South Korea from 7 - 25 February (Olympic.org). The 2018 medal standings are being updated here. At the 2014 Winter Olympics, Russia, Norway, Canada, and the United States were the top four in the gold medal count; the Netherlands and Germany tied for fifth (Business Insider). In the event of a tie in the gold medal count, we will use the total number of medals to serve as a tiebreaker, followed by the total silver medals and then bronze medals, if needed.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Norway":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Canada":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"United States":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Netherlands":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Germany":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another country":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Norway","Canada","United States","Netherlands","Germany","Another country"],"target":"Norway"}
{"Question":"Will Nathan Chen win a gold medal at the 2018 Winter Olympic Games?","Started_time":"2018-02-15","Closed_time":"2018-02-21","Challenges_list":["In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Society","Sports"],"Description":"Nathan Chen was the only undefeated individual skater in the world this season in individual competition and will compete for an individual medal on 16-17 February (Olympic.org). He \"bombed in his Olympic debut Friday [9 February]\" (USA Today).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will North Korea send an official athletic delegation to participate in the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea?","Started_time":"2017-12-12","Closed_time":"2018-02-25","Challenges_list":["The World in 2018"],"Tags_list":["Sports","Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Democratic People's Republic of Korea has athletes that could be eligible to participate (Korea Times, Reuters) in the 2018 Winter Olympics hosted by South Korea. However, North Korea has not yet announced whether it will send an athletic delegation to the event (Yonhap News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and a North Korean athlete\/team will win a medal":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Yes, but a North Korean athlete\/team will not win a medal":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, and a North Korean athlete\/team will win a medal","Yes, but a North Korean athlete\/team will not win a medal","No"],"target":"Yes, but a North Korean athlete\/team will not win a medal"}
{"Question":"What will be the 2017 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","Started_time":"2017-07-21","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2017, which will replicate an approach published in a 2015 Nature Climate Change study.  In 2016, using a similar method, the Mack Institute found that the average price had declined to $282 per kWh (Mack Institute).  Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines (Bloomberg, The Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $215 kWh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between $215 and $230 per kWh, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"More than $230 but less than $245 per kWh":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"},"$245 per kWh or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"}},"choices":["Less than $215 kWh","Between $215 and $230 per kWh, inclusive","More than $230 but less than $245 per kWh","$245 per kWh or more"],"target":"More than $230 but less than $245 per kWh"}
{"Question":"As of 31 January 2018, what percent of funds of the Vanguard 500 Index Fund will be holdings of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, or Alphabet?","Started_time":"2018-01-17","Closed_time":"2018-02-01","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by summing the % of funds from Apple Inc. (AAPL),  Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Facebook Inc. Class A (FB),  Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG), and Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL)  on Vanguard's 500 Index Fund's Investor Share Page. Question will be suspended on 31 January 2018 and resolved when the relevant data is released.  Because the Vanguard 500 Index Fund tracks the S&P500, the percent of the funds for each company provides an indication of that company's global market share (Investopedia).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 12.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 12.00% and 13.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 13.00% but less than 14.00%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 14.00% and 15.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 15.00%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 12.00%","Between 12.00% and 13.00%, inclusive","More than 13.00% but less than 14.00%","Between 14.00% and 15.00%, inclusive","More than 15.00%"],"target":"More than 13.00% but less than 14.00%"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the euro against the U.S. dollar on 15 February 2018?","Started_time":"2017-02-16","Closed_time":"2018-02-15","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Some worry the value of the dollar may fall in coming months as the Trump administration focuses on restructuring trade agreements (Reuters). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $0.90":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $0.90 and $1.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $1.00 but less than $1.10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1.10 and $1.20, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than $1.20":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Less than $0.90","Between $0.90 and $1.00, inclusive","More than $1.00 but less than $1.10","Between $1.10 and $1.20, inclusive","More than $1.20"],"target":"More than $1.20"}
{"Question":"What will be the 12-month percentage change in the Core Consumer Price Index for January 2018?","Started_time":"2017-12-01","Closed_time":"2018-02-02","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The Core CPI is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and refers to the All items less food and energy category . The question will be suspended on 31 January 2018 and resolved when the data are first released.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.6%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.6% and 1.8%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"More than 1.8% but less than 2.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"29%"},"Between 2.0% and 2.2%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 2.2%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.6%","Between 1.6% and 1.8%, inclusive","More than 1.8% but less than 2.0%","Between 2.0% and 2.2%, inclusive","More than 2.2%"],"target":"Between 1.6% and 1.8%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 July 2018?","Started_time":"2017-06-13","Closed_time":"2018-02-14","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2018)"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"A controversial cabinet reshuffling brings new protests for the South African President to step down (BBC, Al Jazeera, Reuters). In the event that Zuma reportedly disappears or flees the capital, a three-week waiting period will be observed, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Zuma returns in the interim, the question will remain open.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2018, will Uber, or any of its subsidiaries, agree to a settlement or be found liable for trade secrets violations in the case brought by Waymo in the Northern District of California?","Started_time":"2017-07-21","Closed_time":"2018-02-09","Challenges_list":["2017-2018 Vehicle Innovations Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"In February, Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet (Google's parent company), filed suit against Uber Technologies and some of its subsidiaries for stealing information related to autonomous vehicle development (The Atlantic). For more information on Waymo LLC v Uber Technologies, Inc. et all (3:2017cv00939), currently before Federal District Judge William Alsup, see: Waymo-Uber Complaint. Settlements reached that do not include an admission of liability will still resolve the question as \"yes.\"  Subsequent appeals will not affect the resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will Nasser Zefzafi be released from prison?","Started_time":"2017-08-01","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The arrest of Nasser Zefzafi has become a flashpoint of recent protests in Morocco's Rif (Aljazeera, The Economist, Daily Star).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2018":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2017","Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2018"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2018"}
{"Question":"Which team will win Super Bowl LII?","Started_time":"2018-01-17","Closed_time":"2018-02-05","Challenges_list":["In the News","In the News 2018"],"Tags_list":["Sports","The Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl LII"],"Description":"Super Bowl LII is scheduled for 4 February 2018 (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jacksonville Jaguars":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Minnesota Vikings":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"New England Patriots":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Philadelphia Eagles":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"}},"choices":["Jacksonville Jaguars","Minnesota Vikings","New England Patriots","Philadelphia Eagles"],"target":"Philadelphia Eagles"}
{"Question":"Who will win the special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th District?","Started_time":"2017-08-11","Closed_time":"2017-11-08","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"A special election for the Washington State Senate's 45th district is attracting national attention as the next electoral flashpoint between Democrats and Republicans.  If Democrats win, they would gain total control of Washington's state government, making it the party's seventh state government trifecta in the country. (Politico, The Seattle Times)","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin of 5% or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Jinyoung Lee Englund (Republican) by a margin of 5% or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Jinyoung Lee Englund (Republican) by a margin greater than 5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%","Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin of 5% or less","Jinyoung Lee Englund (Republican) by a margin of 5% or less","Jinyoung Lee Englund (Republican) by a margin greater than 5%","None of the above"],"target":"Manka Dhingra (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%"}
{"Question":"How many refugees and migrants will arrive in Europe by sea in 2017?","Started_time":"2017-02-14","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Many migrants and refugees are still making the dangerous trip across the Mediterranean to Europe (Washington Post, World Health Organization Europe). This question will be resolved using the data available on (UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and will be scored based on the data available on 31 January 2018.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 100,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 100,000 and 300,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 300,000 but less than 500,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 500,000 and 750,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 750,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 100,000","Between 100,000 and 300,000, inclusive","More than 300,000 but less than 500,000","Between 500,000 and 750,000, inclusive","More than 750,000"],"target":"Between 100,000 and 300,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the closing price of Bitcoin for 26 January 2018, according to CNBC?","Started_time":"2017-10-27","Closed_time":"2018-01-26","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"The question will resolve based on the closing price reported at CNBC using the 1Y graph. The closing price can be found by hovering your cursor over the relevant date.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1,000 and $4,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $4,000 but less than $7,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $7,000 and $10,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than $10,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"}},"choices":["Less than $1,000","Between $1,000 and $4,000, inclusive","More than $4,000 but less than $7,000","Between $7,000 and $10,000, inclusive","More than $10,000"],"target":"More than $10,000"}
{"Question":"What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 20 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?","Started_time":"2017-12-13","Closed_time":"2017-12-20","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Environment","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the Energy Information Administration.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $60.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $60.00 and $63.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than $63.00 and less than $66.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between $66.00 and $69.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $69.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $60.00","Between $60.00 and $63.00, inclusive","More than $63.00 and less than $66.00","Between $66.00 and $69.00, inclusive","More than $69.00"],"target":"More than $63.00 and less than $66.00"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2017-18 College Football Playoff National Championship?","Started_time":"2017-12-08","Closed_time":"2018-01-08","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"Four teams will compete for the College Football Playoff National Championship.  The two semifinal games will be played on 1 January 2018 and the championship game will be played on 8 January 2018.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Clemson":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Oklahoma":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Georgia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Alabama":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"}},"choices":["Clemson","Oklahoma","Georgia","Alabama"],"target":"Alabama"}
{"Question":"Will Apple's end-of-day market capitalization exceed $1 trillion before 1 January 2018?","Started_time":"2017-06-16","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"Market Cap\" figure reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg)","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many forecasters will join the Global Judgment Challenge on Good Judgment Open before 8 January, 2018?","Started_time":"2017-12-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-08","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"Good Judgment Open's Global Judgment Challenge, sponsored by CNN's \"Fareed Zakaria GPS,\" will be featured on the program twice, on 31 December 2017 and 7 January 2018 (Global Judgment Challenge, Fareed Zakaria GPS). \"Fareed Zakaria GPS\" was the second most popular cable news show on weekends in Q3 2017 (AdWeek)","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 4,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 1,000","Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive","More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000","Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive","More than 4,000"],"target":"More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will Iran's monthly oil production exceed 4 million barrels per day?","Started_time":"2016-11-01","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected governor of Virginia in November 2017?","Started_time":"2017-08-11","Closed_time":"2017-11-08","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The Virginia gubernatorial race will take place on 7 November 2017.  The campaign has drawn national attention and money, with both Democrats and Republicans viewing the contest as a referendum on President Trump (The Washington Post, The Washington Post, The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin of 5% or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58%"},"Ed Gillespie (Republican) by a margin of 5% or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Ed Gillespie (Republican) by a margin greater than 5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%","Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin of 5% or less","Ed Gillespie (Republican) by a margin of 5% or less","Ed Gillespie (Republican) by a margin greater than 5%","None of the above"],"target":"Ralph Northam (Democrat) by a margin greater than 5%"}
{"Question":"Will an unmanned aerial vehicle be used by a non-governmental or intra-governmental organization to deliver humanitarian aid to a conflict zone in 2017?","Started_time":"2017-02-21","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to deliver relief in humanitarian crises is the object of increasing attention, including several ongoing initiatives (Swiss Foundation for Mine Action, Handy Shipping Guide, The National, CNBC Africa). Humanitarian aid delivery to conflict zones has been impeded in places like Syria (Al Jazeera, The Guardian), Ukraine (BBC, Amnesty International), Burma (Time Magazine, Human Rights Watch), and South Sudan (NPR, US News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","Started_time":"2017-04-28","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Justices of the Supreme Court by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority (Reuters). The removal of the filibuster to block legislation may be next (NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will it be announced that Twitter Inc. is being acquired?","Started_time":"2017-05-09","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"Twitter has been the target of acquisition rumors with possible suitors including Google and Salesforce (Redcode, CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Catalan pro-independence parties hold a majority of seats after the upcoming regional elections?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-21","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Examples of current and past pro-independence parties include the Catalan European Democratic Party (PDECat), the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC),  the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP),  Catalonia Yes (CatSi), and Democrats of Catalonia (DC). Regional elections are scheduled for 21 December 2017 (NY Times, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the short-term interest rate for Mexico (MEX) in December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Data is retrievable on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site.\u00a0The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 7.3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 7.3 and 7.5, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"More than 7.5":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Less than 7.3","Between 7.3 and 7.5, inclusive","More than 7.5"],"target":"More than 7.5"}
{"Question":"What will be the short-term interest rate for Hungary (HUN) in December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCED). Data is retrievable on the 'Short-term interest rates' table on the web site.\u00a0The relevant country can be found in the HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES or LOCATION field, and the relevant time period can be found in the TIME field. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be resolved when the data is released, likely the month after the period of interest.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 0.02":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 0.02 and 0.30, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"More than 0.30":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Less than 0.02","Between 0.02 and 0.30, inclusive","More than 0.30"],"target":"Between 0.02 and 0.30, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will the FCC cease to regulate broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act?","Started_time":"2017-06-02","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Technology","US Policy"],"Description":"Net neutrality made headlines in 2015 when the FCC issued rules that classified broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act, which limited their ability to block or prioritize some content over others (NY Times). The FCC has decided to revisit the issue (NY Times) and invited interested parties to submit comments on the issue before a decision is made later this year (FCC, FCC, LA Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles?","Started_time":"2017-01-06","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"Amazon completed its first drone delivery in the U.K., the debut of its unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) shipping service (The Guardian). U.S. commercial drone rules were finalized at the end of August 2016 (FAA). Among other things, they require operators to maintain visual line of site with the drones (FAA, Fortune). Since passing the regulation, U.S. regulators have been granting waivers for companies to test drone delivery (FAA). 7-Eleven, which became the first major company to use drones for deliveries in the U.S.,did so without a waiver because its drone operators maintained line of site for short range delivery (CNBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will SpaceX successfully relaunch an orbital-class booster within 24 hours of booster landing?","Started_time":"2017-04-14","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Technology"],"Description":"On 30 March 2017, SpaceX succesfully launched the first recycled orbital-class booster, marking the first time in the history of spaceflight that a single booster has been used on two separate missions (CNN, Ars Technica). Elon Musk has stated that his next goal is to turn the booster around for relaunch in 24 hours, a milestone he said could be accomplished before the end of the year (Reuters).  A relaunch that occurs within 24 hours of the booster landing, where the second stage of the rocket in the relaunch reaches low Earth orbit, will resolve this question as \"Yes\", regardless of whether the orbital-class booster lands after the second launch.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value of the Nikkei 225 Index on 29 December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-02-24","Closed_time":"2017-11-29","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 16,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 16,000 and 18,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 18,000 but less than 20,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 20,000 and 22,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"More than 22,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"}},"choices":["Less than 16,000","Between 16,000 and 18,000, inclusive","More than 18,000 but less than 20,000","Between 20,000 and 22,000, inclusive","More than 22,000"],"target":"More than 22,000"}
{"Question":"Will the S&P 500 fall 20% or more in 2017?","Started_time":"2017-02-16","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will close as \"yes\" if any end-of-day closing value of the S&P 500 is at least 20% lower than the highest recorded closing value of the index in 2017 up to that date. Outcome will be determined by comparing the end-of-day closing values reported by Bloomberg ( Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will the end-of-day YTD return be for the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index on 29 December, 2017?","Started_time":"2017-06-13","Closed_time":"2017-12-29","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day \"YTD Return\" value reported by Bloomberg on 29 December, 2017.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than -2.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between -2.5% and 0.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 0.0%, but less than +2.5%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between +2.5% and +5.0%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than +5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than -2.5%","Between -2.5% and 0.0%, inclusive","More than 0.0%, but less than +2.5%","Between +2.5% and +5.0%, inclusive","More than +5.0%"],"target":"Between +2.5% and +5.0%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will Fitch, Moody's, or S&P cut the State of Illinois\u2019 credit rating to junk status?","Started_time":"2017-07-11","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The question will close yes if Moody\u2019s cuts its credit rating to Ba1, Fitch cuts its rating to BB+, or S&P cuts its rating to BB+ on any Illinois state general obligation bonds.  Despite passing a budget, the state of Illinois remains at risk of having its credit downgraded to junk status (Market Watch, Chicago Tribune).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"As of 30 November 2017, how many states, including D.C., will offer expanded Medicaid coverage to people meeting the Affordable Care Act's poverty requirements for expanded coverage?","Started_time":"2017-04-28","Closed_time":"2017-12-01","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The Affordable Care Act (ACA) allowed states to offer expanded Medicaid coverage to low-income people (Healthcare.gov). As of April 2017, thirty-one states and the District of Columbia are participating in the expansion program (NBC, Advisory Board, Forbes). States offering expanded Medicaid coverage under the ACA or a future program will count as long as the coverage is offered to those meeting the poverty requirements of ACA's expansion program.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 32":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"32":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"33":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"34":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"35 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 32","32","33","34","35 or more"],"target":"32"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) exceed 30?","Started_time":"2017-06-13","Closed_time":"2017-12-31","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Outcome will be determined based on the reported intraday values calculated and published by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 2018, will Tesla file for bankruptcy or begin restructuring its debt in a corporate workout?","Started_time":"2017-02-16","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology"],"Description":"Tesla has been faced with questions over its financial solvency over the years (Fortune,  SF Gate). Scrutiny increased with Tesla\u2019s acquisition of SolarCity in 2016 (Bloomberg, Market Watch). Actions by Tesla or its wholly-owned subsidiaries, including SolarCity, will count, regardless of the country where the bankruptcy filing or corporate workout takes place. For more information on corporate workouts and bankruptcy proceedings see: FindLaw, Law 360","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will South Korea file a World Trade Organization dispute against the United States related to solar panels?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Environment","Economic Policy"],"Description":"South Korea has threatened to file a WTO complaint if the US imposes additional tariffs or import restrictions on solar panels (Reuters, Forbes). For more information on the dispute settlement process see: WTO.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the WHO confirm more than 10 cases of Marburg in 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"There have been confirmed cases of Marburg, a deadly virus similar to Ebola, for the first time since 2014 (World Health Organization, Time Magazine, CNN). Question will be resolved based on the latest WHO data available on 31 December 2017 (WHO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Iran launch a medium,  intermediate, or intercontinental range ballistic missile or a satellite between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-29","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The Trump administration declined to certify the Iranian nuclear deal, citing concerns about Iran's missile program (The Atlantic, Reuters).  Examples of previous launches include the September 2017 and March 2016 ballistic missile tests (CNN, BBC) and the July 2017 satellite launch (Reuters).  For more information on ballistic missiles of various ranges see Arms Control.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will Libya's Sharara oil field experience a production shutdown?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-29","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Libya's Sharara oil field, the country's largest, has been beset by production shutdowns (Al Arabiya, Reuters, Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will a Chinese government entity or state owned enterprise take a stake in Youku Tudou, Tencent, or Weibo?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"China has proposed investing in web giants Tencent Holdings Ltd, Weibo Corp, and Youku Tudou, a platform owned by Alibaba Group Holding (Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Mahmoud Abbas visit Gaza before 1 January 2018?","Started_time":"2017-11-08","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"On 12 October 2017, Hamas and Fatah signed a unity agreement which outlined terms for Hamas to transfer control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (CNN, NY Times). Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah made a visit to Gaza in advance of the deal (Aljazeera).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will Transport for London (TfL) issue a license for Uber?","Started_time":"2017-10-25","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In September 2017, Transport for London (TfL; London's transport authority) rejected Uber's application for a new license. Talks between Uber and TfL are ongoing (Evening Standard, The Independent).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the \"comfort women\" statue be removed from outside the Japanese Consulate in Busan before 1 January 2018?","Started_time":"2017-10-25","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge","North Korea and Global Security"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The \"comfort women\" statue in front of the Japanese Consulate in Busan, erected in December 2016, was opposed by Japan as a violation of the 2015 agreement settling the issue (CNN, NY Times). South Korea's president has criticized that agreement and observers worry that the rekindling of the \"comfort women\" issue may complicate South Korean and Japanese cooperation (Nikkei, NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 25 October and 31 December 2017, will North Korea launch an SLBM?","Started_time":"2017-10-25","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge","North Korea and Global Security"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) program is continuing to advance (Reuters, The Telegraph, The Diplomat). The launch must be conducted from a submarine. Barge tests and land based tests of SLBMs won't count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 29 December 2017, will it be announced that Chinese troops are deploying to the disputed border region between Eritrea and Djibouti?","Started_time":"2017-09-13","Closed_time":"2017-12-29","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"As aggression escalates in the Djibouti-Eritrea conflict over the Dumeria Mountain and Island, China has offered to assist in mediation or peacekeeping if requested (Ventures Africa, Yahoo! News, South China Morning Post, News.com).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 27 December 2017, will Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania accuse Russia of intervening militarily in its territory without permission?","Started_time":"2017-10-11","Closed_time":"2017-12-27","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"If the relevant governments are overthrown during an invasion, an announcement by a third party government accusing Russia of invasion will count. Examples of past accusations of Russian military intervention include Georgia's claim that Russia invaded its territory in August of 2008 (Belfast Telegraph), Ukraine's claim the Russia invaded Crimea in February 2014 (Sputnik News), Ukraine's condemnation of illegal Russian fighters in Eastern Ukraine in June 2014 (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine), and Ukraine's statement in August 2014 that Russia military forces had crossed the border and were actively engaged in fighting (The Guardian).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will Saudi Arabia announce it is increasing the domestic price of gasoline or diesel?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-29","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Saudi Arabia continues to hint at a possible domestic fuel price increase in 2017, but has not yet made a change (Reuters). Raising the price of any octane level will count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?","Started_time":"2016-06-14","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 2018, will Russia officially announce that it is suspending its participation in or withdrawing from the New START treaty?","Started_time":"2016-06-14","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many countries will have a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility before 2018?","Started_time":"2017-05-23","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"For CENTCOM area of responsibility, visit: Centcom. Examples include, but are not limited to: The Telegraph, BBC, Aljazeera, Gulf News.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"2 or 3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"4 or 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","1","2 or 3","4 or 5","More than 5"],"target":"1"}
{"Question":"Between 6 December and 31 December 2017, will there be an attack on the drone base near Agadez, Niger?","Started_time":"2017-12-06","Closed_time":"2017-12-31","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"There are concerns that the U.S. drone base near Agadez, Niger may draw the attention of violent extremists (Washington Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 29 November 2017 and 29 December 2017, will there be an attack by non-state actors on a civilian sea vessel which results in at least three fatalities?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-29","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Examples of civilian sea vessels include, but are not limited to, cruise liners, fishing boats, and merchant ships (e.g., oil tankers). Recent studies indicate that civilian vessels are increasingly vulnerable to attacks by non-state actors (Maritime Executive, Marine Insight,BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will Qatar announce that it will cease to export natural gas to any country?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-31","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"If the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and its neighbors escalates, the supply and distribution of Qatari natural gas could be disrupted (Bloomberg, Zawya, Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many total civilian deaths for December 2017 will the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) report?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Question will be resolved using the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) monthly report for December. Monthly reports are posted here and are typically updated within a few days of the following month. The SNHR monthly report will be treated as the official resolution source even if other authorities offer conflicting numbers.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 800":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"Between 800 to 900, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"36%"},"More than 900 but less than 950":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Between 950 to 1,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"More than 1,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Less than 800","Between 800 to 900, inclusive","More than 900 but less than 950","Between 950 to 1,000, inclusive","More than 1,000"],"target":"Less than 800"}
{"Question":"Will the new Zimbabwean government offer opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai or ex-Finance Minister Tendai Biti a position in the post-coup government cabinet before 31 December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-31","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Former Prime Minister Tsvangirai returned to Zimbabwe after President Mugabe was put under house arrest (BBC, Daily Express). Former Finance Minister Tendai Biti has discussed means of improving the economy under the new government (News 24). Question will resolve as \"yes\" if the new Zimbabwean government announces or confirms media reports that either Morgan Tsvangirai or Tendai Biti was offered a position in the new Zimbabwean cabinet.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Pierre Nkurunziza cease to be president of Burundi?","Started_time":"2016-08-23","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2018":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2017","Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive","Between 1 July 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2018"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2018"}
{"Question":"Before 2018, will Russia and Cuba announce the reopening of the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center?","Started_time":"2016-12-20","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy"],"Description":"Russia may be looking to expand the number of military facilities it has abroad, and rumors have circulated since 2014 that Russia and Cuba have discussed reopening the Lourdes Signals Intelligence Center, which was closed in 2001 (RT, Sputnik, Stratfor, Indian Express).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 1 January 2018?","Started_time":"2017-02-14","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (Economist, NATO, Radio Free Europe\/Radio Liberty). Article 5 has been invoked once, by the United States in response to a terrorist attack in 2001 (NATO).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the World Trade Organization's Iran Working Party meet before 1 January 2018?","Started_time":"2016-12-06","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"The first step in the WTO accession process is the establishment of a Working Party. Iran's Working Party was established in 2005 but has yet to meet (Al-Monitor, World Trade Organization).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2017?","Started_time":"2017-01-24","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy"],"Description":"RCEP is a regional trade agreement between Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and their free trade agreement partners (Asia Regional Integration Center, South China Morning Post). Countries participating in the trade initiative failed to conclude a deal in 2016 but have indicated a work plan for 2017 is forthcoming (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, The Star). A \"yes\" resolution requires that the negotiators reach an agreement. Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will India and Pakistan both attend a South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit before 1 January 2018?","Started_time":"2016-11-15","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy"],"Description":"Both countries must attend the same summit to resolve this question. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation is an intergovernmental group made up of the countries of South Asia (SAARC). India recently said it will boycott the SAARC summit scheduled to be held in Pakistan this month (The Indian Express). This influenced other countries in South Asia to boycott as well (The Indian Express).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Saudi Arabia list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering before 1 January 2018?","Started_time":"2016-05-17","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will Yemen's Houthi rebels sign a peace agreement that includes provisions about the establishment or recognition of a single, national government?","Started_time":"2016-10-11","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will casualties from the Turkey-PKK conflict exceed 125 in any month from August through November 2017, according to the International Crisis Group?","Started_time":"2017-08-22","Closed_time":"2017-12-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The last ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) broke down in 2015, and thousands have been killed since (Council on Foreign Relations). This question will be resolved using data from the International Crisis Group's \"Casualties of the Conflict\" table, for the months from August through November (inclusive) (Crisis Group).  If the threshold has not been reached before, the question will be suspended on 30 November 2017 and then resolved on 29 December 2017, to allow ICG to collect and code reports from late November.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Thailand hold general elections before 1 January 2018?","Started_time":"2016-10-04","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Syria hold UN-backed elections before 1 January 2018?","Started_time":"2016-01-20","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will the next Italian general election occur?","Started_time":"2017-01-10","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Although the next general election is not due until 2018, outgoing Prime Minister Mateo Renzi's failed constitutional referendum has set off a political crisis in Italy which may lead to early elections (The Economist, CNBC, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 April 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2018":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 April 2017","Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive","Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive","Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2018"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2018"}
{"Question":"Before 2018, will it be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement?","Started_time":"2016-05-03","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Iraq's Mosul Dam collapse?","Started_time":"2016-07-19","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2018":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2017","Between 1 January 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2018"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2018"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will the Moroccan government and the Polisario Front participate in official negotiations over Western Sahara?","Started_time":"2017-10-17","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)","HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Renewed tensions between Morocco and the Polisario Front in the Western Sahara (The Economist, NY Times) has led to a push for negotiations (News 24, The United Nations).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will it be announced that Qatar is withdrawing from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)?","Started_time":"2017-07-18","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Tensions between Qatar and other GCC states have come to a head, with a number of GCC members breaking off diplomatic relations (Huffington Post, The Atlantic, CSIS, CNN, Washington Post).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 October 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2018":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 October 2017","Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2018"],"target":"Not before 1 January 2018"}
{"Question":"Before 2018, will there be a lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman?","Started_time":"2017-05-23","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"For the purposes of this question, a lethal attack is one that results in one US fatality. In recent months, the US Navy has had hostile encounters with Iranian naval forces (Newsweek, CNN, The Guardian), and has been attacked by Houthi rebels firing missiles from Yemen (San Diego Union Tribune).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar on 29 December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-14","Closed_time":"2017-12-29","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg here.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1.25":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $1.30 but less than $1.35":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between $1.35 and $1.40, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than $1.40":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1.25 and $1.30, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $1.25","More than $1.30 but less than $1.35","Between $1.35 and $1.40, inclusive","More than $1.40","Between $1.25 and $1.30, inclusive"],"target":"Between $1.35 and $1.40, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the UN declare a famine in any part of Somalia in 2017?","Started_time":"2017-08-22","Closed_time":"2018-01-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Health","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"In February 2017, the UN declared that parts of South Sudan were experiencing a famine (Voa News), and other countries in Africa, including Somalia, are facing the possibility of famine in the near future (Famine Early Warning System, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, Reuters). For general information on how famines are declared, see: NPR, BBC. Both the declaration and the famine need to occur in 2017.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will the UN Security Council hold an emergency meeting in response to new suspected use of chemical weapons in Syria?","Started_time":"2017-06-06","Closed_time":"2017-12-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The Syrian regime has been accused of using chemical weapons against their own people (Arms Control Association). The April 2017 sarin gas attack on a hospital in Idlib province prompted an an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council (Aljazeera, ABC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"As of 28 December 2017, how many cholera deaths will the Humanitarian Data Exchange record in Yemen?","Started_time":"2017-11-07","Closed_time":"2017-12-28","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Health","Environment"],"Description":"The WHO has reported that a cholera outbreak in Yemen has surged since the end of April (Reuters, Financial Times, CNN, The Guardian). Outcome will be determined by data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX), which provides a cumulative count of Yemen's cholera deaths since 27 April 2017, using WHO data. The relevant data can be found by downloading the \"Yemen Cholera Outbreak Epidemiology Data,\" looking at the most recent entry in the \"Deaths\" column of the \"Data_Country_Level\" tab. If HDX stops tracking cholera cases in Yemen, the question will resolve based on the final available HDX numbers.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2,300":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between 2,300 and 2,500, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 2,500 but less than 3,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"3,000 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2,300","Between 2,300 and 2,500, inclusive","More than 2,500 but less than 3,000","3,000 or more"],"target":"Less than 2,300"}
{"Question":"How many cases of MERS-CoV in humans will EMPRES-i record in Saudi Arabia between 1 December 2017 and 15 December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-16","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"EMPRES Global Animal Disease Information System (EMPRES-i) is the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nation's global web-based tool for animal disease surveillance. To access the data from http:\/\/empres-i.fao.org: click on the map; click Advanced Search in the top right corner; set OBSERVATION DATES to cover the relevant time period, check MERS-CoV from DISEASE LIST; check Saudi Arabia under Asia from ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS; check human from ANIMALS AFFECTED; click Find; then export to CSV. Outcome will be determined by the sum of the values reported in the \"humansAffected\" column. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved based on data posted 15 days from the end of the period.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"None":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 and 8, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 8":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["None","Between 1 and 8, inclusive","More than 8"],"target":"None"}
{"Question":"Before 27 December 2017, will Algeria, Morocco, or Tunisia issue sharia-compliant government bonds?","Started_time":"2017-10-11","Closed_time":"2017-12-27","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy"],"Description":"As North African states struggle with declining revenues, a number are considering issuing sharia compliant non-interest bonds to attract more investors (Reuters, Gulf Times, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 27 December 2017, will Brazil's Chamber of Deputies vote to send Brazil's President Michel Temer to a Supreme Court or Senate trial?","Started_time":"2017-10-11","Closed_time":"2017-12-27","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"According to the constitution of Brazil, a two-thirds vote is required for the Chamber of Deputies to authorize a trial by the Supreme Court or the Senate. For more information see  Title IV, Chapter II, Section III, Article 86 of Brazil's Constitution . After surviving a Chamber of Deputies vote on authorization of a Supreme Court trial in August 2017, Brazilian President Michel Temer faces a new set of corruption charges (BBC, Reuters, Bloomberg, LA Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the daily closing price of gold on 27 December 2017 in USD?","Started_time":"2017-12-20","Closed_time":"2017-12-27","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the last daily London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM) for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1,200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1,200 and $1,230, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $1,230 but less than  $1,255":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between $1,255 and $1,285, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"More than $1,285":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"}},"choices":["Less than $1,200","Between $1,200 and $1,230, inclusive","More than $1,230 but less than  $1,255","Between $1,255 and $1,285, inclusive","More than $1,285"],"target":"Between $1,255 and $1,285, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 31 December 2017, will President Trump sign legislation removing the ACA's individual mandate to purchase health insurance?","Started_time":"2017-07-14","Closed_time":"2017-12-22","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Health","US Policy"],"Description":"The individual mandate is a part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) that requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty. In May 2017, the House passed a bill to \u201crepeal and replace\u201d the ACA with a provision that would end the individual mandate. The issue has moved to the Senate (Fox News, Vox).  The passage of legislation which limits enforcement (e.g by removing the penalty or prohibiting the use of federal funds to enforce the provisions of the individual mandate) would resolve the question as \"yes\" (Cornell Law).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In the week following Chile's presidential election, will the end of day closing for the Santiago Stock Exchange drop below 5,000?","Started_time":"2017-10-10","Closed_time":"2017-12-23","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by Bloomberg.  The Chilean presidential election is scheduled for 19 November 2017, with a run-off scheduled for 17 December 2017 if no candidate wins a majority of the votes in the first round.  The week following the election is defined as the five trading days after the election takes place. If the first round determines the election, the relevant trading days are 20-24 November, inclusive. If the second round takes place, the relevant trading days are 18-22 December, inclusive. Markets have responded positively to Sebastian Pinera's presidential candidacy and his pro-growth platform (Reuters, Reuters, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, if Sebastian Pinera wins Chile's presidential election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, if Sebastian Pinera does NOT win Chile's presidential election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, if Sebastian Pinera wins Chile's presidential election","Yes, if Sebastian Pinera does NOT win Chile's presidential election","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 16 February 2018, will President Trump sign legislation that reduces the top marginal federal corporate tax rate?","Started_time":"2017-11-17","Closed_time":"2017-12-22","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge","CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The top marginal federal corporate tax rate is currently 35% (Cornell Law, CNBC, Harvard Business Review). The date that any change to the marginal rate would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, to a rate of 20% or less":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, to a rate greater than 20% but less than 25%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Yes, to a rate of 25% or greater":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, to a rate of 20% or less","Yes, to a rate greater than 20% but less than 25%","Yes, to a rate of 25% or greater","No"],"target":"Yes, to a rate greater than 20% but less than 25%"}
{"Question":"How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Iran (Islamic Republic of) between 27 November 2017 and 3 December 2017 (epidemiological week 48)?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-18","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"FluNet is the World Health Organization's global web-based tool for influenza virological surveillance. Relevant data can be accessed via FluNet functions, 'Download influenza laboratory surveillance data from any week' here. Select by: 'Country, area or territory'; Filter by: the country of interest; set the time period to cover the epidemiological-week(s) of interest; and then click 'Display report.' This question will be resolved using the value or sum of values reported in 'Total number of influenza positive viruses' or 'ALL_INF' for all reporting weeks within the period of interest. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when data for the period of interest is released.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 7":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7 and 18, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 18 but less than 41":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 41 and 108, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 108":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 7","Between 7 and 18, inclusive","More than 18 but less than 41","Between 41 and 108, inclusive","More than 108"],"target":"More than 18 but less than 41"}
{"Question":"How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Egypt between 27 November 2017 and 3 December 2017 (epidemiological week 48)?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-04","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Health"],"Description":"FluNet is the World Health Organization's global web-based tool for influenza virological surveillance. Relevant data can be accessed via FluNet functions, 'Download influenza laboratory surveillance data from any week' here. Select by: 'Country, area or territory'; Filter by: the country of interest; set the time period to cover the epidemiological-week(s) of interest; and then click 'Display report.' This question will be resolved using the value or sum of values reported in 'Total number of influenza positive viruses' or 'ALL_INF' for all reporting weeks within the period of interest. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when data for the period of interest is released.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 6":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"71%"},"Between 6 and 17, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"More than 17 but less than 42":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 42 and 117, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 117":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 6","Between 6 and 17, inclusive","More than 17 but less than 42","Between 42 and 117, inclusive","More than 117"],"target":"Less than 6"}
{"Question":"What will be the Hong Kong Dollars to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-11","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 7.800":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 7.800 and 7.805, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"More than 7.805 but less than 7.810":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54%"},"Between 7.810 and 7.815, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"More than 7.815":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 7.800","Between 7.800 and 7.805, inclusive","More than 7.805 but less than 7.810","Between 7.810 and 7.815, inclusive","More than 7.815"],"target":"More than 7.805 but less than 7.810"}
{"Question":"What will be the Thai Baht to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 11 December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-11","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the daily rate reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) for the date of interest. Question will be suspended the day before the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 32.79":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 32.79 and 32.85, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 32.85 but less than 32.91":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 32.91 and 32.97, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 32.97":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 32.79","Between 32.79 and 32.85, inclusive","More than 32.85 but less than 32.91","Between 32.91 and 32.97, inclusive","More than 32.97"],"target":"Less than 32.79"}
{"Question":"Will Juan Hernandez win Honduras' upcoming presidential election?","Started_time":"2017-10-17","Closed_time":"2017-11-27","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"Honduras has presidential elections scheduled for 26 November 2017 (The Star, The Economist).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, with more than 45% of the popular vote":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Yes, with more than 27% but less than 38% of the vote":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Yes, with 27% or less of the popular vote":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, with more than 45% of the popular vote","Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive","Yes, with more than 27% but less than 38% of the vote","Yes, with 27% or less of the popular vote","No"],"target":"Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Who will win Chile\u2019s 2017 presidential election?","Started_time":"2017-10-04","Closed_time":"2017-12-16","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Alejandro Guillier":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18%"},"Beatriz Sanchez":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Sebastian Pinera":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Alejandro Guillier","Beatriz Sanchez","Sebastian Pinera","None of the above"],"target":"Sebastian Pinera"}
{"Question":"What will the Federal Open Market Committee decide to do with respect to the federal funds rate at its scheduled December 2017 meeting?","Started_time":"2017-09-19","Closed_time":"2017-12-13","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","US Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Investopedia). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The December meeting is scheduled for 12-13 December 2017.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Maintain":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Raise":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["Lower","Maintain","Raise"],"target":"Raise"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018,  will the United Kingdom and the European Union reach an agreement on payment of the UK's outstanding liabilities to the EU?","Started_time":"2017-04-07","Closed_time":"2017-12-08","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"Media reports indicate the EU intends to demand the UK to pay a \u201chefty\u201d bill to cover various commitments the UK made as a member of the EU (The Telegraph, The Independent, The Guardian) .  The question will close when an agreement is reached (e.g., an agreement on a formula to calculate outstanding liabilities (Reuters), the disbursement of payment is not required for a \"yes\" resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the daily closing price of gold on 15 December 2017 in USD?","Started_time":"2017-12-06","Closed_time":"2017-12-15","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the last daily London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM) for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1235":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1235 and $1270, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than $1270 but less than $1295":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1295 and $1325, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $1325":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $1235","Between $1235 and $1270, inclusive","More than $1270 but less than $1295","Between $1295 and $1325, inclusive","More than $1325"],"target":"Between $1235 and $1270, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will be the daily closing price of gold on 13 December 2017 in USD?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-13","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the last daily London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price USD (PM) for the date of interest. The relevant data is available by selecting 'Table' and referring to the 'PM' column under 'USD.' Question will be suspended on the day before the date of interest and resolved the day after the date of interest.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1,270":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Between $1,270 and $1,282, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than $1,282 but less than $1,294":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1,294 and $1,306, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $1,306":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $1,270","Between $1,270 and $1,282, inclusive","More than $1,282 but less than $1,294","Between $1,294 and $1,306, inclusive","More than $1,306"],"target":"Less than $1,270"}
{"Question":"Will a Republican win the special election for Alabama's U.S. Senate seat?","Started_time":"2017-11-10","Closed_time":"2017-12-13","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics","Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The special election for Alabama's U.S. Senate seat vacated by now-Attorney General Jeff Sessions is scheduled for 12 December 2017 (The Washington Examiner, CBS News, The Washington Post, Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 13 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?","Started_time":"2017-12-06","Closed_time":"2017-12-13","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the Energy Information Administration.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $57.70":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $57.70 and $59.64, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $59.64 and less than $63.04":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between $63.04 and $66.98, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"More than $66.98":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"}},"choices":["Less than $57.70","Between $57.70 and $59.64, inclusive","More than $59.64 and less than $63.04","Between $63.04 and $66.98, inclusive","More than $66.98"],"target":"Between $63.04 and $66.98, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will an individual hack of Bitcoin resulting in the theft of $10,000,000 USD or more occur in December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-06","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Technology"],"Description":"On November 21, 2017, the company behind the Bitcoin cryptocurrency \"tether\" announced a hack resulting in a theft valued at $31,000,000 USD that was widely reported in the media (Bloomberg, CNBC). The question will resolve as \"yes\" if a credible media outlet (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) reports an additional, separate Bitcoin hacking event valued at $10,000,000 or more during the period of interest.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the location of the missing Argentinian submarine be determined before 8 December 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-08","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Open"],"Description":"On November 23, 2017, the Argentinian Navy confirmed that its missing submarine, the San Juan, had experienced an explosion near the location of its last contact. (LA Times, Reuters) Question will resolve as \"yes\" if (a) credible media report that the ship or some remains of the ship have been located OR (b) there is an announcement or confirmation by the Argentinian government that the ship or some remains of the ship have been located.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Barnaby Joyce win the upcoming by-election in New England, Australia?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-02","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Australia's former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is running in a by-election scheduled for 2 December 2017, a race which may determine which party holds the majority in Australia's House of Representatives (NY Times, Northern Daily Leader).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 26 November 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-21","Closed_time":"2017-11-26","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 14.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"More than 16 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 14.5 million","Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive","More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million","Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive","More than 16 million"],"target":"More than 16 million"}
{"Question":"Before 1 December 2017, will it be announced that Wang Qishan has been elected to another term on the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China?","Started_time":"2017-06-13","Closed_time":"2017-11-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"China's National Congress will meet in autumn 2017 to select leaders for the new term. Wang Qishan has served on the Politburo Standing Committee since 2012 (NY Times 3\/2\/2017 , Wall Street Journal, NY Times 5\/30\/2017, China Leadership Monitor ).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Salva Kiir cease to be President of South Sudan before 1 December 2017?","Started_time":"2016-11-15","Closed_time":"2017-12-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit"],"Description":"Salva Kiir has been president of South Sudan since the country became independent in July 2011 (BBC), but his government has been fighting a civil war against forces led by his former vice president, Riek Machar, since late 2013 (US Institute of Peace). In the event that Kiir reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJI will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Kiir returns in the interim, the question will remain open.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 1 December 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?","Started_time":"2017-11-29","Closed_time":"2017-12-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the Energy Information Administration.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $57.82":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $57.82 and $61.40, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $61.40 and less than $64.48":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between $64.48 and $68.06, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $68.06":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $57.82","Between $57.82 and $61.40, inclusive","More than $61.40 and less than $64.48","Between $64.48 and $68.06, inclusive","More than $68.06"],"target":"Between $64.48 and $68.06, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Qatar between 13 November 2017 and 19 November 2017 (epidemiological week 46)?","Started_time":"2017-11-01","Closed_time":"2017-11-19","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Society","Health"],"Description":"FluNet is the World Health Organization's global web-based tool for influenza virological surveillance. Relevant data can be accessed via FluNet functions, 'Download influenza laboratory surveillance data from any week here. Select by: 'Country, area or territory'; Filter by: the country of interest; set the time period to cover the epidemiological-week(s) of interest; and then click 'Display report.' This question will be resolved using the value or sum of values reported in  \u2018Total number of influenza positive viruses\u2019 or \u2018ALL_INF\u2019 for all reporting weeks within the period of interest. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when data for the period of interest is released.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 27":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 27 and 120, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"More than 120 but less than 200":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64%"},"Between 200 and 293, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 293":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 27","Between 27 and 120, inclusive","More than 120 but less than 200","Between 200 and 293, inclusive","More than 293"],"target":"More than 293"}
{"Question":"Before 21 November 2017, will Nnamdi Kanu, leader of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), be found?","Started_time":"2017-11-08","Closed_time":"2017-11-21","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Nnamdi Kanu is the leader of the IPOB separatist movement in Nigeria, but has not been seen in public since soldiers allegedly invaded his home in mid-September. A trial against him has been adjourned to allow more time to ascertain his whereabouts. Secessionist sentiment is on the rise in the southeastern part of the country. Kanu's condition when found will not affect the resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 15 November 2017, will the WTO establish a dispute settlement panel for any of Qatar's complaints against Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, or Bahrain?","Started_time":"2017-09-06","Closed_time":"2017-11-14","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 18 October and 28 December 2017, will any World War II Soviet monuments be taken down in Poland?","Started_time":"2017-10-18","Closed_time":"2017-11-16","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Poland's president has approved amendments to a law that bans the promotion of communism, including World War II era memorials dedicated to Soviet troops (Radio Free Europe, The Star).  Russia has threatened to retaliate against Poland if they remove any of these monuments (BBC, Reuters).  If a World War II Soviet monument is taken down (e.g. BBC) the question will close as yes regardless of who takes it down.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 19 November 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-17","Closed_time":"2017-11-19","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Sports","Entertainment","This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on The Futon Critic in the \"Sunday's Broadcast Ratings\" summary of 19 November 2017.","Fast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows:","10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","29 October 2017: 12.666 million viewers The Futon Critic)","5 November 2017: 11.673 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","12 November 2017: 15.329 million viewers (The Futon Critic)"],"Description":"NOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis.  Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 14.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"More than 16 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 14.5 million","Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive","More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million","Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive","More than 16 million"],"target":"More than 16 million"}
{"Question":"What will be the daily closing spot price of Brent crude oil (USD per barrel) on 10 November 2017, according to the U.S. EIA?","Started_time":"2017-11-01","Closed_time":"2017-11-10","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $54.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $54.00 and $57.30, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $57.30 but less than $60.10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $60.10 and $63.40, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"More than $63.40":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"}},"choices":["Less than $54.00","Between $54.00 and $57.30, inclusive","More than $57.30 but less than $60.10","Between $60.10 and $63.40, inclusive","More than $63.40"],"target":"More than $63.40"}
{"Question":"What will be the approval rating for the Russian government in September 2017?","Started_time":"2017-09-06","Closed_time":"2017-09-19","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 49":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"49 - 50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"More than 50":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"}},"choices":["Less than 49","49 - 50, inclusive","More than 50"],"target":"More than 50"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will two of the three major credit rating agencies adjust the long-term issuer credit rating of Venezuela or the PDVSA to indicate default?","Started_time":"2017-05-09","Closed_time":"2017-11-14","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The three major credit rating agencies are Moody's, Fitch, and S&P. A rating of C by Moody's indicates default (see page 5 of Moody's); a rating of  RD or D by Fitch indicates default (see page 19 of Fitch Ratings),  and a rating of SD or D by S&P indicates default (See table 4: Standard and Poors).  Venezuela and its state-run oil company, the PDVSA ,made a large debt payment in April, but have others coming due in October and November of 2017 (Reuters). Venezuela\u2019s shrinking federal reserves, budget deficit, high unemployment rate, falling oil prices, and food shortages put it at risk of defaulting on these loans in 2017 (Bloomber, Barrons).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Between 24 October 2017 and 1 February 2018, will Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia have their long-term issuer rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch?","Started_time":"2017-10-24","Closed_time":"2017-11-10","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Foreign Policy"],"Description":"Recent macroeconomic developments have raised concerns regarding the debt profile of several GCC countries (Reuters, Reuters, Reuters, Gulf News, Bloomberg). Long-term foreign currency and\/or local currency issuer ratings will count. Revisions to outlook will not count.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"72.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 12 November 2017?","Started_time":"2017-11-10","Closed_time":"2017-11-13","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Society","Sports","This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on The Futon Critic in the \"Sunday's Broadcast Ratings\" summary of 12 November 2017.","Fast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows:","10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","29 October 2017: 12.666 million viewers The Futon Critic)","5 November 2017: 11.673 million viewers (The Futon Critic )"],"Description":"NOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis.  Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 14.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 16 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 14.5 million","Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive","More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million","Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive","More than 16 million"],"target":"More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million"}
{"Question":"What will be the FAO Sugar Price Index in October 2017?","Started_time":"2017-10-18","Closed_time":"2017-11-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using data reported by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Relevant data is available at FAO in the 'FAO food price index' table. This question will be resolved based on initial values typically released the first week of the following month.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 191.3":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 191.3 and 200.3, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 200.3 but less than 208.1":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 208.1 and 217.1, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 217.1":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 191.3","Between 191.3 and 200.3, inclusive","More than 200.3 but less than 208.1","Between 208.1 and 217.1, inclusive","More than 217.1"],"target":"More than 200.3 but less than 208.1"}
{"Question":"Will FEWS NET publish a Food Security Alert with \"famine\" and \"South Sudan\" or \"Nigeria\" in its headline between 6 September 2017 and 25 October 2017?","Started_time":"2017-09-06","Closed_time":"2017-10-24","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will the daily price of the Brazilian real-to-US dollar exchange rate be on 31 October 2017?","Started_time":"2017-08-23","Closed_time":"2017-11-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using the daily price reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) for 31 October 2017 (FRED). Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be suspended on the date of interest and resolved when the data is released, usually on Monday of the following week.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 2.98":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 2.98 and 3.11, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 3.11 but less than 3.22":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Between 3.22 and 3.34, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"More than 3.34":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 2.98","Between 2.98 and 3.11, inclusive","More than 3.11 but less than 3.22","Between 3.22 and 3.34, inclusive","More than 3.34"],"target":"Between 3.22 and 3.34, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 November 2017, will the US impose economic sanctions on Iran for activities related to a nuclear program?","Started_time":"2016-10-18","Closed_time":"2017-11-01","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya's presidential election rerun?","Started_time":"2017-09-19","Closed_time":"2017-10-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Uhuru Kenyatta was declared the winner of Kenya's August presidential elections, however, Kenyatta's opponent Raila Odinga challenged the results and the Supreme Court declared them invalid (Washington Post). A rerun election is planned for October 2017.   Kenya's constitution allows petitioners to challenge the results of an election at the Supreme Court seven days after the date of the declaration of the results of the presidential election.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"Yes, and the result will NOT be challenged in the Supreme Court":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"No, and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No, and the result will NOT be challenged in the Supreme Court.":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court","Yes, and the result will NOT be challenged in the Supreme Court","No, and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court","No, and the result will NOT be challenged in the Supreme Court."],"target":"Yes, and the result will be challenged in the Supreme Court"}
{"Question":"What will the daily closing price of France's CAC 40 (INDEXEURO: PX1) be on 31 October 2017?","Started_time":"2017-10-18","Closed_time":"2017-10-31","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5,173.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5,173.00 and 5,278.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5,278.00 but less than 5,369.00":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 5,369.00 and 5,474.00, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than 5,474.00":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"}},"choices":["Less than 5,173.00","Between 5,173.00 and 5,278.00, inclusive","More than 5,278.00 but less than 5,369.00","Between 5,369.00 and 5,474.00, inclusive","More than 5,474.00"],"target":"More than 5,474.00"}
{"Question":"What will the closing price of gold be on 31October 2017 in USD?","Started_time":"2017-10-11","Closed_time":"2017-10-31","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1229.85":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1229.85 and 1268.42, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"},"More than 1268.42 but less than 1301.63":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"Between 1301.63 and 1340.19, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1340.19":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1229.85","Between 1229.85 and 1268.42, inclusive","More than 1268.42 but less than 1301.63","Between 1301.63 and 1340.19, inclusive","More than 1340.19"],"target":"More than 1268.42 but less than 1301.63"}
{"Question":"Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections before 1 November 2017?","Started_time":"2017-04-18","Closed_time":"2017-11-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"In the past six months, Prime Minister Netanyahu has faced corruption charges (The Times of Israel, NY Times, BBC) and a political crisis over Israel's public broadcast system (Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many UN member states will sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 1 November 2017?","Started_time":"2017-08-16","Closed_time":"2017-11-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 50 and 100, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 100 but less than 122":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 122 and 140, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 140":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 50","Between 50 and 100, inclusive","More than 100 but less than 122","Between 122 and 140, inclusive","More than 140"],"target":"Between 50 and 100, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many viewers will tune in to watch Sunday Night Football on 29 October 2017?","Started_time":"2017-10-27","Closed_time":"2017-10-30","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Society","Sports","This question will be resolved using Nielsen's Fast National Ratings data as reported on The Futon Critic in the \"Sunday's Broadcast Ratings\" summary of 29 October 2017.","Fast National Ratings are typically reported on the Monday following Sunday programming. This season's Fast National viewership numbers for Sunday Night Football are as follows:","10 September 2017: 21.559 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","17 September 2017: 18.460 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","24 September 2017: 14.537 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","1 October 2017: 14.009 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","8 October 2017: 14.853 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","15 October 2017: 14.423 million viewers (The Futon Critic)","22 October 2017: 16.741 million viewers (The Futon Critic)"],"Description":"NOTE: This is an experimental short-term question intended to serve as 'forecasting fodder.' The idea is to give forecasters a way to get scored quickly on questions that demand difficult, multifaceted analysis.  Sunday Night Football viewership in any given week may be influenced by long-term trends (e.g. a move to streaming services), or circumstances specific to game day (who is playing, what competing programming will air), among other factors.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 14.5 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"More than 16 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 14.5 million","Between 14.5 million and 15 million, inclusive","More than 15 million but less than 15.5 million","Between 15.5 million and 16 million, inclusive","More than 16 million"],"target":"Fewer than 14.5 million"}
{"Question":"Will FEWS NET publish a Food Security Alert with \"famine\" and \"Yemen\" in its headline between 9 August 2017 and 25 October 2017?","Started_time":"2017-08-09","Closed_time":"2017-10-25","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party win in the upcoming election for Japan's House of Representatives?","Started_time":"2017-10-18","Closed_time":"2017-10-21","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 232":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"232 - 275":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"276 - 285":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"286 - 310":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"},"More than 310":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 232","232 - 275","276 - 285","286 - 310","More than 310"],"target":"276 - 285"}
{"Question":"Will Geert Wilders become prime minister of the Netherlands after the March 2017 elections?","Started_time":"2017-01-10","Closed_time":"2017-03-15","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The Netherlands is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on 15 March 2017 and Geert Wilders, the head of the Freedom Party (PVV), has been ahead in the polls (Express UK). If no government is formed after the March elections and subsequent elections are scheduled, the question will resolve as \"no.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many Senate seats will Cambiemos hold after Argentina's parliamentary elections?","Started_time":"2017-10-10","Closed_time":"2017-10-22","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"While Argentine President Macri's ruling Cambiemos ('Let's Change') coalition had a strong showing in August's primaries, ex-President Christine Fernandez de Kirchner's declared run for a Senate seat casts uncertainty over competing economic reform agendas (Bloomberg, Business Insider, FX Street).  Argentina's parliamentary elections are scheduled for 22 October 2017.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"A majority":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A plurality, but not a majority":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Less than a plurality":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"}},"choices":["A majority","A plurality, but not a majority","Less than a plurality"],"target":"A plurality, but not a majority"}
{"Question":"Before 1 April 2018, will India announce that it has begun, or will begin, new construction that dams any part of the of the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab rivers, or their upper tributaries?","Started_time":"2017-04-11","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Health","Environment","Building dams across the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers -- whose headwaters are controlled by India but whose downstream flow is allocated to Pakistan by the Indus Water Treaty -- could increase tensions between the two countries over water (Foreign Policy, Hindustan Times, New Delhi Times)."],"Description":"UPDATE: GJ is looking into the specifications of the Ganderbal Project (Hydroworld, HCC)  to confirm if all requirements of the forecasting question have or have not been met.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for the United Kingdom in September 2017?","Started_time":"2017-09-06","Closed_time":"2017-09-30","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using data from the International Monetary Fund, and can be found after ensuring the country of interest is selected from the Country drop down menu, and 'Consumer Price Index, All Items' is selected from the Indicator drop down menu. The relevant row is: '[Country of Interest], Consumer Price Index, All Items,' and the relevant column will be '2017 [Month of Interest].' Question will be resolved based on initially reported values expected to be published the first week of the following month.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than .01":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between .01 and .17, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26%"},"More than .17 but less than .30":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Between .30 and .46, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"More than .46":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than .01","Between .01 and .17, inclusive","More than .17 but less than .30","Between .30 and .46, inclusive","More than .46"],"target":"More than .17 but less than .30"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2018, will Venezuela hold gubernatorial elections?","Started_time":"2017-09-19","Closed_time":"2017-10-15","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Delayed gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held in October (Miami Herald, NPR, Telesur).  In 2012, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) won 20 of the 23 governorships.  Opposition parties have decided to participate in the elections but face obstacles  (The Christian Science Monitor, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the PSUV will win more than 20 governorships":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Yes, and the PSUV will win between 15 and 20 governorships, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"Yes, and the PSUV will win more than 10 but less than 15 governorships":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"},"Yes, and the PSUV will win 10 or fewer governorships":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the PSUV will win more than 20 governorships","Yes, and the PSUV will win between 15 and 20 governorships, inclusive","Yes, and the PSUV will win more than 10 but less than 15 governorships","Yes, and the PSUV will win 10 or fewer governorships","No"],"target":"Yes, and the PSUV will win between 15 and 20 governorships, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Honduras (HND) that starts between 1 September 2017 and 30 September 2017?","Started_time":"2017-08-23","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The question will resolve as \"yes\" if the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset records any event with a start date (Start Day, Start Month, Start Year) in the period of interest, inclusive, for which 'Event Location: Country' is the country of interest, and 'Perpetrators: Perp State Role' is: Multiple Perpetrators (Non-State); Non-State, Internal, No State Sanction; Transnational, Non-State; or Unknown\/Unclear\/Other. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when the data is released, typically in the middle of the next month via the .zip file which begins with January 2016.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Kenya in September 2017?","Started_time":"2017-09-06","Closed_time":"2017-09-30","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Between 6 and 15, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"More than 15":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 6","Between 6 and 15, inclusive","More than 15"],"target":"Between 6 and 15, inclusive"}
{"Question":"How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Algeria in September 2017?","Started_time":"2017-09-06","Closed_time":"2017-09-30","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 5":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"Between 5 and 10, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"More than 10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 5","Between 5 and 10, inclusive","More than 10"],"target":"Less than 5"}
{"Question":"How much crude oil will Libya produce in September 2017?","Started_time":"2017-08-16","Closed_time":"2017-09-30","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 967.33":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"53%"},"Between 967.33 and 1093.53, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"},"More than 1093.53 but less than 1202.22":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1202.22 and 1328.41, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1328.41":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 967.33","Between 967.33 and 1093.53, inclusive","More than 1093.53 but less than 1202.22","Between 1202.22 and 1328.41, inclusive","More than 1328.41"],"target":"Less than 967.33"}
{"Question":"When will the FARC register a new political party?","Started_time":"2017-06-13","Closed_time":"2017-10-09","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"The historic Colombia-FARC peace agreement stipulated that the FARC could register as a political party once disarmament was complete (United Press International, Colombia Reports 1\/10\/2017 , Colombia Reports 6\/8\/2017 , Reuters). The FARC has said it is committed to forming a political party, a process which could involve Voices of Peace and Reconciliation or the establishment of a new organization (Telesur, Fox News).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 30 September 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October and 31 December 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"Not before 1 January 2018":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"}},"choices":["Before 30 September 2017","Between 1 October and 31 December 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2018"],"target":"Between 1 October and 31 December 2017, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Israel that starts between 9 August 2017 and 31 August 2017, inclusive?","Started_time":"2017-08-09","Closed_time":"2017-09-01","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will China begin land reclamation activity at Scarborough Shoal or in the Macclesfield Bank before 1 October 2017?","Started_time":"2016-10-04","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2017, will the FDA approve the sale of a gene-therapy treatment for inherited diseases?","Started_time":"2017-01-24","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Technology","Health"],"Description":"Congress passed the 21st Century Cures Act in December 2016, meant to accelerate the discovery, development, and delivery of new cures (US Congress). Spark Therapeutics could become the first company to receive FDA approval to sell a gene-therapy treatment in the U.S. (The Economist, Technology Review, FDA Cellular Gene Therapy Products, Nature Journal, FDA Development Approval Process).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the U.S. Department of Justice approve AT&T's bid for Time Warner before 1 October 2017?","Started_time":"2017-02-07","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Business"],"Description":"The regulatory decision over AT&T's bid for Time Warner awaits the new administration (The Economist, WSJ, Business Insider and CNBC). For more information on the Department of Justice's role in merger approval see: Benton.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Canada legalise recreational marijuana nationally before 1 October 2017?","Started_time":"2016-11-22","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised to legalise recreational marijuana (The World in 2017, Vox). The health minister has indicated that a bill will be introduced in the spring of 2017. For more information on Canada's legislative process see Queen's University Library.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Vladimir Putin or Donald Trump host the other for an official bilateral visit before 1 October 2017?","Started_time":"2016-11-22","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Clarification issued 12\/12\/2016: The question was updated to ask about an official bilateral visit."],"Description":"Joint attendance at multilateral meetings will not count. President-elect Trump has repeatedly praised Vladimir Putin (The World in 2017, Time, CBS News). President Obama's 2009 visit to Moscow is an example of an official bilateral visit (NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2017, will one day of protests in Venezuela result in more than 25 fatalities?","Started_time":"2017-07-25","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Protests in Venezuela have become increasingly violent, with fatalities suffered by supporters of both sides, bystanders and members of the security forces (Reuters, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Kim Jong-un cease to be supreme leader of North Korea?","Started_time":"2016-10-18","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2017 and 31 March 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 October 2017":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2017","Between 1 January 2017 and 31 March 2017","Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive","Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 October 2017"],"target":"Not before 1 October 2017"}
{"Question":"Will anyone other than Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi be proclaimed caliph before 1 October 2017?","Started_time":"2017-02-14","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Leader Entry\/Exit","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"A global coalition of forces continues to hammer at the Islamic State and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (Economist, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, while Baghdadi is alive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, after Baghdadi's death":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Yes, while Baghdadi is alive","Yes, after Baghdadi's death","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 October 2017?","Started_time":"2017-03-07","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"The six party talks are a series of negotiations on dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program, involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and the U.S. (Council on Foreign Relations, The Economist). Talks stalled in 2008 (Arms Control Association). China has expressed recent interest in resuming talks (Xin Hua, Reuters).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will another round of in-person Korean family reunions take place?","Started_time":"2016-10-18","Closed_time":"2017-10-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2017 and 31 March 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 October 2017":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2017","Between 1 January 2017 and 31 March 2017, inclusive","Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive","Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 October 2017"],"target":"Not before 1 October 2017"}
{"Question":"Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution concerning the Democratic People's Republic of Korea between 7 September 2017 and 4 October 2017?","Started_time":"2017-09-06","Closed_time":"2017-09-11","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will the monthly Period-over-Period change in the consumer price index (CPI) be for Estonia in August 2017?","Started_time":"2017-08-16","Closed_time":"2017-09-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using data from the International Monetary Fund, and can be found after adding \u201cEstonia\u201d from the Country drop down menu, and \"Consumer Price Index, All Items\" from the Indicator drop down menu. The relevant row is: \u201cEstonia, Consumer Price Index, All Items,\u201d and the relevant column will be \"2017M08.\u201d Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved based on initially reported values for August expected to published the first week of September 2017.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than -.38":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between -.38 and -.14, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"More than -.14 but less than .06":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Between .06 and .30, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"Greater than .30":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["Less than -.38","Between -.38 and -.14, inclusive","More than -.14 but less than .06","Between .06 and .30, inclusive","Greater than .30"],"target":"Greater than .30"}
{"Question":"What will the short-term interest rate be for Ireland (IRL) in August 2017?","Started_time":"2017-08-16","Closed_time":"2017-09-01","Challenges_list":["HFC Challenge"],"Tags_list":["Finance"],"Description":"This question will be resolved using monthly data reported by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in which HIGHLIGHTED COUNTRIES OR LOCATION is 'Ireland (IRL)' and TIME is 'August 2017'. Values will be rounded to the nearest one-hundredth. Question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved when the August data is released, likely in September.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than -1.76":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between -1.76 and -0.76, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than -0.76 but less than 0.10":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 0.10 and 1.10, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than -1.76","Between -1.76 and -0.76, inclusive","More than -0.76 but less than 0.10","Between 0.10 and 1.10, inclusive","More than 1.10"],"target":"More than -0.76 but less than 0.10"}
{"Question":"At their 130th Session, where will the International Olympic Committee decide to hold the 2024 and 2028 Olympics?","Started_time":"2017-06-27","Closed_time":"2017-09-13","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Sports","The IOC officially announced Paris will host the 2024 Olympics and Los Angeles will host in 2028 (Olympic Games). This question was closed as \"a) Paris in 2024, Los Angeles in 2028\", with an end date of 13 September."],"Description":"The International Olympic Committee will announce the host city for the 2024 Summer Olympic games in September 2017 at its 130th Session (The International Olympic Committee, NY Times, The Economist).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Paris in 2024, Los Angeles in 2028":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Los Angeles in 2024, Paris in 2028":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Paris in 2024, but Los Angeles not selected for 2028":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Los Angeles in 2024, but Paris not selected for 2028,":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Paris in 2024, Los Angeles in 2028","Los Angeles in 2024, Paris in 2028","Paris in 2024, but Los Angeles not selected for 2028","Los Angeles in 2024, but Paris not selected for 2028,","None of the above"],"target":"Paris in 2024, Los Angeles in 2028"}
{"Question":"What proportion of seats will the MPLA win in Angola's upcoming parliamentary elections?","Started_time":"2017-06-20","Closed_time":"2017-08-26","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","MPLA won 150 of 220 seats. This question was closed as \u201ca) majority\u201d with an end date of 26 August 2017. (Africa News)"],"Description":"Angola's president of over 30 years, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, announced that he will step down as president before the 2017 elections, creating uncertainty over whether the MPLA will maintain its dominant role in Angolan politics (Deutsche Welle, World Politics Review, News24).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"A majority":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"A plurality, but not a majority":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not a plurality":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["A majority","A plurality, but not a majority","Not a plurality"],"target":"A majority"}
{"Question":"Before 7 September 2017, will Colin Kaepernick be signed by an NFL team?","Started_time":"2017-08-25","Closed_time":"2017-09-07","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will North Korea next conduct a nuclear test?","Started_time":"2016-09-20","Closed_time":"2017-09-02","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"},"Not before 1 January 2018":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"50%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2017","Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive","Between 1 July 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2018"],"target":"Between 1 July 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive"}
{"Question":"From March through August 2017, how many months will see Macau's monthly gross gaming revenues exceeding 2016 monthly revenues by 10% or more?","Started_time":"2017-03-21","Closed_time":"2017-09-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Business","March through August gross revenues exceeded 2016 revenues by 10% or more. This question closed with an answer of \"d) all 6 months\", with and end date of 1 September 2017.  (Macau Gaming Inspection and Co-ordination Bureau)"],"Description":"Gaming revenues fell precipitously in 2014 and 2015 as President Xi Jinping's anti-graft campaign deterred Chinese high-rollers from flaunting their wealth in Macau's casinos, but have started to climb again (The Economist, Bloomberg, Business Times). The question will be resolved according to official data provided by the Macau Gaming Inspection and Co-ordination Bureau here.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"0-1 months":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"2-3 months":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"4-5 months":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"All 6 months":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["0-1 months","2-3 months","4-5 months","All 6 months"],"target":"All 6 months"}
{"Question":"Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya\u2019s August 2017 presidential election?","Started_time":"2017-04-04","Closed_time":"2017-08-08","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Uhuru Kenyatta will seek re-election in August 2017 (The Economist, Bloomberg). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 August 2017, will the US president sign legislation that eliminates or caps the tax exemption on municipal bond interest?","Started_time":"2017-04-11","Closed_time":"2017-08-01","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","US Politics","US Policy"],"Description":"Under present federal income tax law, the interest received from municipal bonds is free from federal income taxes (The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association). The Republican-controlled Congress has put tax reform high on the agenda and may try to eliminate or cap the tax exemptions on municipal bonds (Bloomberg, Bloomberg, The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2017, will the Mauritanian government hold a referendum to alter the nation's constitution?","Started_time":"2017-07-14","Closed_time":"2017-08-05","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"A referendum vote aimed at changing Mauritania\u2019s constitution, originally scheduled for July 2017, has been postponed to August (World Politics Review, North AfricaPost, Africa News, News 24). If the referendum includes multiple amendments to the constitution, passage of any of them would resolve the question as \"Yes, it will pass.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and it will pass":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"},"Yes, but it will not pass":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"9%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"14%"}},"choices":["Yes, and it will pass","Yes, but it will not pass","No"],"target":"Yes, and it will pass"}
{"Question":"What will be the official U.S. civilian unemployment rate for the month of July 2017?","Started_time":"2017-04-11","Closed_time":"2017-08-01","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) reported for the month of July 2017, published by the Department of Labor on 4 August 2017 (Bureau of Labor Statistics). For more information on U3, see: Investopedia.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 4.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 4.0 and 4.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"More than 4.5% but less than 5.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"5.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 4.0%","Between 4.0 and 4.5%, inclusive","More than 4.5% but less than 5.0%","5.0% or more"],"target":"Between 4.0 and 4.5%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"What will Gallup report President Trump's approval rating to be on 1 August 2017?","Started_time":"2017-04-28","Closed_time":"2017-08-01","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the \"Gallup Daily\" Trump job approval rating (Gallup). Question will be suspended on 1 August 2017 and closed when the data are released the following day.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 30%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 30% and 40%, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"More than 40% but less than 50%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Between 50% and 60%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 60%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 30%","Between 30% and 40%, inclusive","More than 40% but less than 50%","Between 50% and 60%, inclusive","More than 60%"],"target":"Between 30% and 40%, inclusive"}
{"Question":"When will a nominee for FBI director be confirmed by the U.S. Senate?","Started_time":"2017-05-19","Closed_time":"2017-07-31","Challenges_list":["2018 Monkey Cage Midterm Elections Challenge"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"Donald Trump has yet to announce his choice to replace James Comey as the director of the FBI. The next FBI director will need to be confirmed by the U.S. Senate. The current acting replacement, Andrew G. McCabe, would also face a confirmation vote if nominated (The Hill).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 July 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2017 and 31 July 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 August 2017":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Before 1 July 2017","Between 1 July 2017 and 31 July 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 August 2017"],"target":"Not before 1 August 2017"}
{"Question":"Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan cease to be President of Turkey before 1 August 2017?","Started_time":"2016-08-02","Closed_time":"2017-08-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will China officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 August 2017?","Started_time":"2017-03-16","Closed_time":"2017-08-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy"],"Description":"After the International Court of Arbitration ruled against China's territorial claims in a landmark case in June 2016, China stated that it has a right to set up an ADIZ in the South China Sea (CNN, US Naval Institute). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defence identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see VOA, National Interest, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the U.S. real quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2017?","Started_time":"2017-04-18","Closed_time":"2017-06-30","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1% and 2%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"More than 2% but less than 3%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"3% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Less than 1%","Between 1% and 2%, inclusive","More than 2% but less than 3%","3% or more"],"target":"More than 2% but less than 3%"}
{"Question":"Will Saudi Arabia's holdings of US treasury securities dip below $50 billion before 1 June 2017?","Started_time":"2016-11-08","Closed_time":"2017-06-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy"],"Description":"Saudi Arabia warned of economic fallout from the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which Congress passed over the president's veto on September 28, 2016 (NY Times, Salon, Washington Post).  The treasury holdings of foreign countries, including Saudi Arabia, are tracked by the Department of Treasury on a monthly basis: US Department of the Treasury. The government of Saudi Arabia held $93 billion in Treasury holdings in August 2016. If the question has not already resolved, it will be suspended on 31 May 2017 and closed when the May data are released, typically in mid July.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 September 2017, will the European Stability Mechanism approve the release of a third tranche of funds from the third economic adjustment programme for Greece?","Started_time":"2017-04-04","Closed_time":"2017-07-07","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy"],"Description":"The third economic adjustment programme for Greece started in August 2015 (The European Council). Two tranches of funds have been released, with the release of the third tranche currently under negotiation (BBC, Investing.com, Financial Times, Reuters). The question will resolve as \"yes\" when the release of the next tranche of loans to Greece is approved, regardless of the amount. Approval to extend the review process or delay the approval decision, without accompanying approval to release additional monies, will not resolve the question as \"yes.\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul?","Started_time":"2017-02-21","Closed_time":"2017-07-10","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"Despite fierce resistance, Islamic State militants have reportedly been losing ground and equipment in Mosul since Iraqi government forces and US-led air forces launched a major campaign to recapture the city in October 2016 (Iraqi News, The Guardian, Asia Times, Politico).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 April 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 1 January 2018.":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 April 2017","Between 1 April 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive","Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive","Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2018."],"target":"Between 1 July 2017 and 30 September 2017, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017?","Started_time":"2017-04-18","Closed_time":"2017-07-04","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Security and Conflict"],"Description":"North Korea's missile program is a cause of concern for mutiple actors in the region and beyond, particularly regarding the development of ICBM capabilities (38 North, BBC, WSJ, Popular Science, CNN, 38 North, NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the U.S. dollar on 30 June 2017?","Started_time":"2017-02-14","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $1.10":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $1.10 and $1.20, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than $1.20 but less than $1.30":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73%"},"Between $1.30 and $1.40, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27%"},"More than $1.40":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $1.10","Between $1.10 and $1.20, inclusive","More than $1.20 but less than $1.30","Between $1.30 and $1.40, inclusive","More than $1.40"],"target":"Between $1.30 and $1.40, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2017, will China fire a missile that lands within 50 nautical miles of Taiwan?","Started_time":"2017-03-07","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"In the 1995-96 Taiwan Straits crises, China test-fired missiles in the Taiwan Strait (NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before July 2017, will the New Development Bank issue any rupee-denominated bonds?","Started_time":"2016-08-02","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2017, will any other European Union (EU) member state set a date for a referendum on leaving the EU?","Started_time":"2016-07-12","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Leopoldo Lopez be released from prison before 1 July 2017?","Started_time":"2017-01-24","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Leopoldo Lopez, a member of Venezuela's opposition, has been imprisoned since 2014 (Foreign Policy, UK Telegraph). The release of Lopez and other political prisoners is one of the issues being discussed in the Vatican-sponsored negotiations between President Maduro and the opposition (The Economist, United Press International, Latin America Herald Tribune).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will an early election or a recall referendum take place in Venezuela before 1 July 2017?","Started_time":"2016-12-13","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda"],"Description":"The political crisis in Venezuela has continued to escalate, with the opposition calling for early elections or a recall referendum (Time, Forbes , The World In 2017). President Maduro has stated that early elections are not on the table, but has agreed to participate in Vatican-sponsored negotiations with the opposition (BBC, Reuters). For more information on constitutional requirements for a recall referendum see Chapter IV, Section 2, Article 72 of Venezuela's constitution (Constitute Project).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2017, will Scotland set a date for another referendum on independence from the United Kingdom?","Started_time":"2016-07-12","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2017, will Russia allow Turkish citizens to travel to Russia without a visa?","Started_time":"2016-10-04","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017?","Started_time":"2016-07-05","Closed_time":"2017-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will either Mir Hossein Mousavi or Mehdi Karroubi stand trial or be released from house arrest before 1 June 2017?","Started_time":"2016-07-05","Closed_time":"2017-05-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will India or Pakistan launch a ground offensive in Kashmir before 1 June 2017?","Started_time":"2017-02-21","Closed_time":"2017-05-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy"],"Description":"Unrest in Kashmir is the source of constant tension between India and Pakistan (International Business Times, The Hindu). Examples of ground offensives include India's Operation Vijay in the 1999 Kargil War (GlobalSecurity.org) and Turkey's Euphrates Shield in Syria (The Independent). Examples of military incidents that would not meet the threshold of a ground offensive include the September 2016 attacks (The Guardian, CNN), the October 2014 border clashes (BBC), and the 2001 attack on the Indian Kashmiri Assembly (BBC).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will the 1-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) for the U.S. dollar be on May 31, 2017?","Started_time":"2017-03-14","Closed_time":"2017-05-31","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators"],"Description":"Outcome will be determined by the LIBOR rate published by the Wall Street Journal here.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than .75%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between .75% and 1.00%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 1.00% but less than 1.25%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 1.25% and 1.50%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.50%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than .75%","Between .75% and 1.00%, inclusive","More than 1.00% but less than 1.25%","Between 1.25% and 1.50%, inclusive","More than 1.50%"],"target":"More than 1.00% but less than 1.25%"}
{"Question":"Will Verizon and Yahoo conclude their merger before 1 June 2017?","Started_time":"2017-01-17","Closed_time":"2017-05-31","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Business","In July 2016, Verizon Communications Inc. agreed to purchase and merge with Yahoo Inc. in a $4.8258 billion deal. The merger was supposed to be completed by March 2017, but has been delayed by the revelation of widespread hacking of 1 billion of Yahoo's users (Fortune, CBS, US News). Should a final merger deal involve Verizon offering equity as well as cash, the dollar value of the equity provided plus the cash provided will be used to calculate the final price of the deal (e.g. NY Times)."],"Description":"If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Facebook will add warning labels to news stories before July 2017 or on whether SpaceX launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, for a price of less than $4.8258 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, for a price of $4.8258 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, for a price more than $4.8258 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, for a price of less than $4.8258 billion","Yes, for a price of $4.8258 billion","Yes, for a price more than $4.8258 billion","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2017, will Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte proclaim martial law?","Started_time":"2016-10-11","Closed_time":"2017-05-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and Congress will NOT revoke the proclamation":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"},"Yes, but Congress\u00a0WILL revoke the proclamation":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82%"}},"choices":["Yes, and Congress will NOT revoke the proclamation","Yes, but Congress\u00a0WILL revoke the proclamation","No"],"target":"Yes, and Congress will NOT revoke the proclamation"}
{"Question":"Who will win Iran's May 2017 presidential election?","Started_time":"2017-05-02","Closed_time":"2017-05-20","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics","Six candidates are in the running for Iran's May 2017 presidential election (BBC, Al-Monitor, The Economist). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended.","Recommended Questions:","Will Moon Jae-in win South Korea's upcoming presidential election?"],"Description":"Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya\u2019s August 2017 presidential election?","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Hassan Rohani":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Ebrahim Raisi":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Mohammad Baguer Ghalibaf":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Mostafa Mirsalim":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Hassan Rohani","Ebrahim Raisi","Mohammad Baguer Ghalibaf","Mostafa Mirsalim","None of the above"],"target":"Hassan Rohani"}
{"Question":"Will farmland values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District be higher in the first quarter of 2017 than they were in first quarter of 2016?","Started_time":"2016-10-28","Closed_time":"2017-03-31","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Moon Jae-in win South Korea's upcoming presidential election?","Started_time":"2017-05-02","Closed_time":"2017-05-09","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Non-US Politics","South Koreans will go to the polls on 9 May 2017 to elect their new president (NY Times). Moon Jae-in ran for president in 2012, losing narrowly to Park Geun-hye. He is now the presumed front runner (NY Times, Reuters).","Recommended Questions:","Who will win Iran's May 2017 Presidential Election"],"Description":"Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017?","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 October 2017, will Ban Ki-moon announce that he is running for president of South Korea?","Started_time":"2016-11-22","Closed_time":"2017-05-09","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Ban Ki-moon, the UN\u2019s outgoing secretary-general, is rumored to be considering a run for the presidency in South Korea's December 2017 election (The Diplomat). Saenuri, the party of President Park Geun-hye, seems eager to groom him as their next leader (The World in 2017, Bloomberg).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the Philippines participate in the 2017 Balikatan military exercise?","Started_time":"2016-12-06","Closed_time":"2017-05-08","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy"],"Description":"The Balikatan exercise is the flagship exercise for the US-Philippine alliance and is normally held in the spring (United States Marine Corps, Update Philippines). President Duterte announced the October 2016 military exercise between US and Filipino military forces would be the last one (Reuters, The Philippine Star, CNN Philippines).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which party's candidate will win the next presidential election in France?","Started_time":"2016-08-31","Closed_time":"2017-05-07","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017","Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"National Front":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Socialist Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Republicans":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"}},"choices":["National Front","Socialist Party","Republicans","None of the above"],"target":"None of the above"}
{"Question":"Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?","Started_time":"2016-12-27","Closed_time":"2017-04-30","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"Throughout President-elect Trump's campaign, he labeled NAFTA the \"worst trade deal in history\" and has repeated a commitment to either negotiating better terms with Mexico and Canada or withdrawing (Forbes, Washington Post, The NAFTA Secretariat). Under Article 2205 of the agreement, a party can withdraw six months after providing notice (CNN,  The NAFTA Secretariat)","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will legislation removing the individual mandate to purchase health insurance be signed before 30 April 2017?","Started_time":"2016-12-27","Closed_time":"2017-04-29","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","US Politics"],"Description":"The individual mandate is a part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) that requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty. Republicans have tried to repeal the ACA many times since it was passed in 2010, but with control of Congress and the presidency they now have the opportunity to act on President-elect Trump's promise to repeal the individual mandate or ACA in its entirety (NPR,  CNBC,  CNN,  The Bureau of National Affairs). The passage of legislation which prohibits the use of federal funds to enforce the provisions of the individual mandate would resolve the question as \"yes\" (Legal Information Institute).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 17 March 2017 and 30 April 2017, will a U.S. Cabinet-level nomination fail or will a Cabinet-level member of the administration cease to hold their office?","Started_time":"2017-03-17","Closed_time":"2017-04-29","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. lift sanctions imposed on Russia for cyber activity, the annexation of Crimea, or its actions in Eastern Ukraine?","Started_time":"2017-03-03","Closed_time":"2017-04-29","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"Easing sanctions (e.g. allowing the import of goods from Crimea while retaining the investment ban on Crimea, removing specific individuals or entities from the cyber sanctions list) will not count. The United States imposed sanctions on Russia in March 2014 in response to the annexation of Crimea, in December 2014 in response to its intervention in Eastern Ukraine, (US Department of State), and in December 2016 in response to cyber activity involving the U.S. presidential election (US Treasury).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will Gallup report President Trump's net approval rating to be on 28 April 2017?","Started_time":"2017-01-17","Closed_time":"2017-04-28","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"President-elect Trump's net approval rating has improved since his election in November (Gallup). This question will be resolved by subtracting President Trump's disapproval rating from his approval rating using the \"Gallup Daily\" Trump job approval rating. Gallup is tracking President Trump's job approval ratings here: (Gallup).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Below -15":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"},"Between -15 and +15, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"Above +15":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Below -15","Between -15 and +15, inclusive","Above +15"],"target":"Between -15 and +15, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will a border adjustment tax be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017?","Started_time":"2017-02-03","Closed_time":"2017-04-30","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","US Politics"],"Description":"In a June 2016 tax reform blueprint, House Republicans proposed a \u201cborder adjustment tax,\u201d a tax levied on imported goods (Forbes). Such a tax is supported by House Speaker Paul Ryan, among others , but has been criticized by President Trump and other leaders (CNBC, Bloomberg, Forbes). A border adjustment tax on specific countries or industries will count. The tax does not need to take effect or become law for a \"yes\u201d resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Ethiopia be under a state of emergency as of 1 May 2017?","Started_time":"2016-12-06","Closed_time":"2017-05-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Security and Conflict"],"Description":"In response to more than a year of protests, Ethiopia declared a six-month nationwide state of emergency on 8 October 2016 (Al Jazeera).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, nationwide":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Yes, but only in some areas":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, nationwide","Yes, but only in some areas","No"],"target":"Yes, nationwide"}
{"Question":"Will the Palestinian Authority hold municipal elections before 1 May 2017?","Started_time":"2016-10-11","Closed_time":"2017-04-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, in the West Bank and Gaza":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, in the West Bank only":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, in the West Bank and Gaza","Yes, in the West Bank only","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will members of Sudan's military or paramilitary attempt to remove Omar al-Bashir as President of Sudan before 1 May 2017?","Started_time":"2016-05-03","Closed_time":"2017-04-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. give notice of intent to withdraw from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change?","Started_time":"2017-01-06","Closed_time":"2017-04-29","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":["Environment","US Politics"],"Description":"The UNFCCC entered into force for the United States in 1994 (UNFCCC, UNFCCC). President-elect Donald Trump has cast uncertainty over the future of U.S. policy on climate change (The Guardian, The Orange County Register). Under Article 25 of the UNFCCC agreement, a party can withdraw from the Convention one year after giving notification (UNFCCC, UN Treaty Collection).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 28 April 2017?","Started_time":"2016-12-27","Closed_time":"2017-04-28","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Policy","Foreign Policy","US Politics","President-elect Trump has accused the Chinese of devaluing the renminbi (CNBC), but recently its value has been increasing relative to the dollar (Washington Post, Washington Post). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by  Bloomberg. For historical trends, see Bloomberg."],"Description":"This question will be scored using our ordered categorical scoring rule.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 6.6":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"6.6 to 7.2, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"More than 7.2":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 6.6","6.6 to 7.2, inclusive","More than 7.2"],"target":"6.6 to 7.2, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Turkey's upcoming constitutional referendum pass?","Started_time":"2017-04-04","Closed_time":"2017-04-17","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Turkey is scheduled to hold a contentious constitutional referendum in April 2017 (BBC, The Guardian, Election Guide, Daily Sabah).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2017, will a date be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom?","Started_time":"2016-11-22","Closed_time":"2017-04-19","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"General elections are not due again in the UK until 2020, but the recent court ruling requiring parliamentary approval for Brexit has prompted some calls for a snap election (Financial Times, The Telegraph, BBC, The World in 2017), and British law allows for out-of-cycle elections under certain conditions (www.parliament.uk).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"In 2016 will any of the G7 countries experience either inflation of 2% or more or GDP growth of 2.5% or more?","Started_time":"2016-04-19","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will China\u2019s GDP growth rate be for the first quarter of 2017 compared to the same period in 2016?","Started_time":"2017-01-10","Closed_time":"2017-03-31","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators"],"Description":"China met its 6.5-7% growth target in 2016. It will probably set itself a similar growth target for 2017 (The Economist). The question will be resolved according to economic and financial data from The Economist here. The question will be suspended on 31 March 2017 and will be closed when data are available in mid-April.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 6.0%":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 6.0% and 6.5%, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"More than 6.5% but less than 7.0%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"7.0% or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 6.0%","Between 6.0% and 6.5%, inclusive","More than 6.5% but less than 7.0%","7.0% or more"],"target":"More than 6.5% but less than 7.0%"}
{"Question":"Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 exceed $140 billion?","Started_time":"2016-09-06","Closed_time":"2017-01-01","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before 30 April 2017?","Started_time":"2017-01-17","Closed_time":"2017-04-07","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017","The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":["US Politics"],"Description":"The United States Supreme Court has had one vacant seat since the February 2016 death of Antonin Scalia. Appointing a new justice will be one of the first big tasks of the Trump administration (The Economist).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?","Started_time":"2017-03-17","Closed_time":"2017-04-03","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship will be held on 3 April 2017 in Phoenix, AZ. Answer options will be replaced with names of the Final Four teams on 27 March 2017. This question will remain open until the championship game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time on 2 April 2017. To view an interactive bracket, visit NCAA","Possible_Answers_dict":{"South Carolina":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Oregon":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"North Carolina":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"Gonzaga":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"}},"choices":["South Carolina","Oregon","North Carolina","Gonzaga"],"target":"North Carolina"}
{"Question":"Before 1 April 2017, will any NATO member other than Turkey announce the establishment of a no-fly zone over any part of Syria?","Started_time":"2016-11-01","Closed_time":"2017-03-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the European Parliament vote before 1 April 2017 to establish a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS)?","Started_time":"2016-08-16","Closed_time":"2017-03-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the euro on 31 March 2017?","Started_time":"2016-12-06","Closed_time":"2017-03-31","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Finance","Economic Indicators","Britain's vote to leave the European Union has been followed by a depreciation in the value of the British pound as investors fear a \"hard\" Brexit (The World in 2017). Outcome will be determined according to data provided by Bloomberg."],"Description":"This question will be scored using our ordered categorical scoring rule.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.00 euro":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.00 and 1.10 euros, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"More than 1.10 but less than 1.20 euros":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"86%"},"Between 1.20 and 1.30 euros, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"More than 1.30 euros":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.00 euro","Between 1.00 and 1.10 euros, inclusive","More than 1.10 but less than 1.20 euros","Between 1.20 and 1.30 euros, inclusive","More than 1.30 euros"],"target":"More than 1.10 but less than 1.20 euros"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship?","Started_time":"2017-03-17","Closed_time":"2017-04-02","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Sports"],"Description":"The 2017 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Championship will be held on 2 April 2017 in Dallas, TX. Answer options will be replaced with names of the Final Four teams on 28 March 2017. This question will remain open until the championship game is over, but we will only score forecasts made through 11:59 p.m. Pacific time on 1 April 2017. To view an interactive bracket, visit here.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"UConn":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Stanford":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Mississippi St.":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52%"},"South Carolina":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48%"}},"choices":["UConn","Stanford","Mississippi St.","South Carolina"],"target":"South Carolina"}
{"Question":"When will the United Kingdom invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?","Started_time":"2016-07-12","Closed_time":"2017-03-29","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Between 12 July and 31 December 2016, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Not before 1 July 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Between 12 July and 31 December 2016, inclusive","Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive","Not before 1 July 2017"],"target":"Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Pakistan before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-05-25","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Bangladesh before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-05-03","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-03-08","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Turkey before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-05-25","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-03-08","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-02-02","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-02-02","Closed_time":"2016-11-30","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-03-08","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016?","Started_time":"2016-05-03","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fewer than 350":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"350-750, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 750":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Fewer than 350","350-750, inclusive","More than 750"],"target":"350-750, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Burundi before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-02-02","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Yemen before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-07-19","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ukraine before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-08-23","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Mali before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-07-19","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Libya before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-08-23","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in India before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-08-09","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Afghanistan before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-08-09","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Leung Chun-ying win the March 2017 election for Chief Executive of Hong Kong?","Started_time":"2016-11-15","Closed_time":"2017-03-26","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Elections and Referenda","Non-US Politics"],"Description":"Leung Chun-ying, the incumbent, is unpopular among democrats and \"localists.\" The Hong Kong chief executive election will be held on 26 March 2017 (South China Morning Post). In the event that a run-off election is required, the end date of the question will be extended.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will the Federal Open Market Committee decide to do with respect to the federal funds rate at its scheduled March 2017 meeting?","Started_time":"2017-02-16","Closed_time":"2017-03-15","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy"],"Description":"The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system (Investopedia). The target for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee. The March meeting is scheduled for 14-15 March 2017.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Maintain":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Raise":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"}},"choices":["Lower","Maintain","Raise"],"target":"Raise"}
{"Question":"Will the Federal Open Market Committee decide to raise the interest rate on excess reserve balances at or before its scheduled September 2017 meeting?","Started_time":"2017-02-24","Closed_time":"2017-03-15","Challenges_list":["CFA Society Los Angeles Finance & Economics (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Economic Policy","This question was closed as \"yes\" with an end date of 15 March 2017 (Federa Reserve).","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated."],"Description":"The Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER), is the interest paid by the Federal Reserve Bank to its depository institutions on balances that exceed the reserves they are required to hold (Federal Reserve). The IOER is set by the Federal Open Market Comittee (FOMC) and detailed in the implementation notes of the monthly meeting (Federal Reserve). At the January 2017 meeting, the FOMC voted to maintain the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances at 0.75 percent (Federal Reserve). The September 2017 meeting is scheduled for 19-20 September.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Facebook add warning labels to news stories before July 2017?","Started_time":"2016-12-09","Closed_time":"2017-03-04","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","Society","This question was closed as \"yes\" with an end date of 4 March 2017 (Buisness Insider, Forbes, USA Today).","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated."],"Description":"The proliferation of \"fake news\" on Facebook during the US presidential election has led to criticism of the social media platform (NPR, Buzzfeed). CEO Mark Zuckerberg has laid out plans to combat misinformation, including the possibility of posting warning labels on stories (Facebook, USA Today). Facebook must implement a widespread, default feature that adds warning labels to news stories that are possibly false or misleading in order for this question to resolve as \"yes\".","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"73.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"27.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will be the valuation of Snap Inc following its initial public offering?","Started_time":"2017-02-03","Closed_time":"2017-03-03","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Business","Technology","The parent company of the popular messaging app Snapchat has filed for an initial public offering to take place as early as March (WSJ, Business Insider, CNBC). Valuation will be based on the end-of-day share price of Snap Inc's first trading day. This question will be extended if the IPO does not occur before the question expires."],"Description":"This question will be scored using our ordered categorical scoring rule.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $20 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Between $20 billion and $30 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"More than $30 billion but less than $40 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$40 billion or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $20 billion","Between $20 billion and $30 billion, inclusive","More than $30 billion but less than $40 billion","$40 billion or more"],"target":"Between $20 billion and $30 billion, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will SpaceX launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017?","Started_time":"2016-06-14","Closed_time":"2017-03-01","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the 2016 industry-wide average cost of Li-on batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles be less than $300 per kWh?","Started_time":"2016-04-22","Closed_time":"2017-01-01","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"87.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the government of Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban participate in official talks before 1 March 2017?","Started_time":"2016-06-21","Closed_time":"2017-03-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2017-03-01","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actor in a Leading Role?","Started_time":"2017-01-27","Closed_time":"2017-02-27","Challenges_list":["The Oscars\u00ae 2017"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 89th Academy Awards\u00ae take place on Sunday, February 26.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ryan Gosling (La La Land)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Denzel Washington (Fences)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"}},"choices":["Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)","Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)","Ryan Gosling (La La Land)","Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)","Denzel Washington (Fences)"],"target":"Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Directing?","Started_time":"2017-01-27","Closed_time":"2017-02-27","Challenges_list":["The Oscars\u00ae 2017"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 89th Academy Awards\u00ae take place on Sunday, February 26.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Arrival (Denis Villeneuve)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"La La Land (Damien Chazelle)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Arrival (Denis Villeneuve)","Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson)","La La Land (Damien Chazelle)","Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)","Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)"],"target":"La La Land (Damien Chazelle)"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actress in a Leading Role?","Started_time":"2017-01-27","Closed_time":"2017-02-27","Challenges_list":["The Oscars\u00ae 2017"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 89th Academy Awards\u00ae take place on Sunday, February 26.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Isabelle Huppert (Elle)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Ruth Negga (Loving)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Natalie Portman (Jackie)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Emma Stone (La La Land)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Isabelle Huppert (Elle)","Ruth Negga (Loving)","Natalie Portman (Jackie)","Emma Stone (La La Land)","Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)"],"target":"Emma Stone (La La Land)"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actress in a Supporting Role?","Started_time":"2017-01-27","Closed_time":"2017-02-27","Challenges_list":["The Oscars\u00ae 2017"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 89th Academy Awards\u00ae take place on Sunday, February 26.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Viola Davis (Fences)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Naomie Harris (Moonlight)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Nicole Kidman (Lion)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Viola Davis (Fences)","Naomie Harris (Moonlight)","Nicole Kidman (Lion)","Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)","Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)"],"target":"Viola Davis (Fences)"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Writing (Original Screenplay)?","Started_time":"2017-01-27","Closed_time":"2017-02-27","Challenges_list":["The Oscars\u00ae 2017"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 89th Academy Awards\u00ae take place on Sunday, February 26.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Hell or High Water":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"La La Land":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45%"},"The Lobster":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Manchester by the Sea":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55%"},"20th Century Women":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Hell or High Water","La La Land","The Lobster","Manchester by the Sea","20th Century Women"],"target":"Manchester by the Sea"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Documentary (Feature)?","Started_time":"2017-01-27","Closed_time":"2017-02-27","Challenges_list":["The Oscars\u00ae 2017"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 89th Academy Awards\u00ae take place on Sunday, February 26.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Fire at Sea":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"I Am Not Your Negro":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Life, Animated":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"O.J.: Made in America":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"13th":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"}},"choices":["Fire at Sea","I Am Not Your Negro","Life, Animated","O.J.: Made in America","13th"],"target":"O.J.: Made in America"}
{"Question":"Which film will win the 2017 Academy Award for Foreign Language Film?","Started_time":"2017-01-27","Closed_time":"2017-02-27","Challenges_list":["The Oscars\u00ae 2017"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment"],"Description":"The 89th Academy Awards\u00ae take place on Sunday, February 26.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Land of Mine":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"A Man Called Ove":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"The Salesman":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"61%"},"Tanna":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Toni Erdmann":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"39%"}},"choices":["Land of Mine","A Man Called Ove","The Salesman","Tanna","Toni Erdmann"],"target":"The Salesman"}
{"Question":"Will annual sales of electric vehicles in China reach 500,000 in 2016?","Started_time":"2016-04-22","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will a U.S. state enact a soda tax in 2017?","Started_time":"2016-12-27","Closed_time":"2017-02-07","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Business","Health","Economic Policy","This question was closed as \"yes\" with an end date of 7 February 2017. Arkansas' governor signed into law an increased tax on soda (Ledger Enquirer, Arkansas Online).","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated."],"Description":"With the legal challenges of municipal soda taxes fading away (Philly.com, Reuters,  Chicago Tribune), some states are considering similar measures (NY Times, WBUR,  PennLive). The tax does not need to take effect for a \"yes\" resolution.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will more than 1 million tourists visit Egypt in October 2016?","Started_time":"2016-09-13","Closed_time":"2016-10-31","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which team will win Super Bowl LI?","Started_time":"2017-01-24","Closed_time":"2017-02-05","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Sports","The Atlanta Falcons will take on the New England Patriots in the NFL's Super Bowl LI on 5 February 2017 in Houston, Texas (NFL)."],"Description":"The New England Patriots won the Super Bowl (NFL).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Atlanta Falcons":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"38%"},"New England Patriots":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"62%"}},"choices":["Atlanta Falcons","New England Patriots"],"target":"New England Patriots"}
{"Question":"Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017?","Started_time":"2016-03-15","Closed_time":"2017-01-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Rex Tillerson be confirmed by the Senate as secretary of state before 30 April 2017?","Started_time":"2016-12-27","Closed_time":"2017-02-01","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","This question was closed as \"yes\" with an end date of 1 February 2017 (NY Times).","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated."],"Description":"President-elect Trump has announced ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson as his pick for secretary of state. Tillerson's ties to Russia have led to criticism of his nomination by both Republicans and Democrats (Washington Post, Politico).\"","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. suspend immigration from any country designated as a state sponsor of terrorism or a terrorist safe haven?","Started_time":"2016-12-27","Closed_time":"2017-01-27","Challenges_list":["The First 100 Days"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","Security and Conflict","This question was resolves as \"yes\" with an end date of 27 January 2016 (US News, Yahoo! New, NY Times).","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated."],"Description":"Part of President-elect Trump's plan for his first 100 days in office calls for the suspension of \"immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur\" (NPR , NY Times). The president has the power to suspend by proclamation entry of any particular class of citizens from designated countries (8 USC \u00a71182(f)). The U.S. Department of State designates countries as \"Terrorist Safe Havens\" (U.S. Department of State ) and\/or \"State Sponsors of Terrorism\" (U.S. Department of State).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Before 15 February 2017, will the United Kingdom's Supreme Court rule that an additional act of the U.K. Parliament is required to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty?","Started_time":"2017-01-11","Closed_time":"2017-01-23","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2017)"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","Non-US Politics","This question was closed as \"Yes\" with an end date of 23 January 2017. The Supreme Court ruled that an act of Parliament was required to invoke Article 50 (BBC, NY Times).","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated."],"Description":"The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a referendum in June 2016 and Prime Minister May has planned to begin that process by invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in March 2017, but a recent High Court ruling stipulated that the government could not do so without an additional act of Parliament (BBC, Wall Street Journal, Judiciary UK). The government appealed the High Court's ruling and the Supreme Court is now is expected to issue its decision in January (BBC, Washington Post). Rulings pertaining to the devolved parliaments of Wales, Northern Ireland, or Scotland will not affect the resolution of this question.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will the European Central Bank (ECB) do with respect to the deposit rate at its January 2017 monetary-policy meeting?","Started_time":"2016-11-22","Closed_time":"2017-01-19","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Economic Indicators","This question was closed on \"Maintain\" with an end date of 19 January 2017. (Wall Street Journal)","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated."],"Description":"The European Central Bank cut its deposit rate into negative territory for the first time in June 2014, meaning that commercial banks are charged for the privilege of depositing money overnight at the central bank. In October 2016 the ECB maintained the deposit rate at -0.40%, but Europe\u2019s weak economic recovery has raised speculation about further decreases (European Central Bank, The World in 2017). The January meeting is scheduled for 19 January 2017. The Governing Council's Monetary Policy Decisions can be found here and historical data on ECB interest rates can be found here.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Raise":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Maintain":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"},"Lower":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Raise","Maintain","Lower"],"target":"Maintain"}
{"Question":"Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership be ratified by Congress before 20 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-10-14","Closed_time":"2017-01-20","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) program be implemented prior to inauguration day?","Started_time":"2016-05-06","Closed_time":"2017-01-20","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will a new Supreme Court Justice be appointed before 20 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-03-01","Closed_time":"2017-01-20","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship?","Started_time":"2016-12-09","Closed_time":"2017-01-09","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Sports","This question was closed with the correct answer \"Clemson\" with an end date of 9 January 2017. Clemson defeated Alabama in the 2017 College Football Playoff National Championship (ESPN).","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated."],"Description":"The College Football Playoff National Championship is scheduled to be held on 9 January 2017 in Tampa, FL (College Football Playoff, NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Alabama":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"},"Clemson":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25%"},"Ohio State":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Washington":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Alabama","Clemson","Ohio State","Washington"],"target":"Clemson"}
{"Question":"Will there be any publicly disclosed cyber attacks on nuclear facilities before the end of 2016?","Started_time":"2016-01-19","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will an independent or third-party candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the U.S. presidential election?","Started_time":"2016-04-01","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent\/third party candidate or be among them":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70%"},"Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent\/third party candidate or will be among them":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, but Donald Trump will not be that independent\/third party candidate or be among them","No","Yes, and Donald Trump will be that independent\/third party candidate or will be among them"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"As of 1 November 2016, how much money will the Center for Responsive Politics report that Donald Trump's campaign committee and outside groups have spent on his campaign?","Started_time":"2016-06-21","Closed_time":"2016-10-31","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"More than $1 billion":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Less than $250 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between $250 million and $500 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than $500 million but less than $750 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"$750 milion to $1 billion, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["More than $1 billion","Less than $250 million","Between $250 million and $500 million, inclusive","More than $500 million but less than $750 million","$750 milion to $1 billion, inclusive"],"target":"Between $250 million and $500 million, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before the end of 2016?","Started_time":"2016-07-05","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will the end-of-day closing value for the British pound against the US dollar be on 30 December 2016?","Started_time":"2016-07-12","Closed_time":"2016-12-30","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 1.20":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"More than 1.30 but less than 1.40":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1.40 and 1.50, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 1.50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 1.20","Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive","More than 1.30 but less than 1.40","Between 1.40 and 1.50, inclusive","More than 1.50"],"target":"Between 1.20 and 1.30, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-08-23","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government of Ukraine":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine","Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government of Ukraine","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will any member of China's Politburo resign, be suspended, or be removed from the Politburo in 2016?","Started_time":"2016-05-24","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Nawaz Sharif, whose family was recently implicated in the Panama Papers, cease to be Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2016?","Started_time":"2016-05-17","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Jacob Zuma cease to be president of South Africa before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-04-19","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the European Union suspend any of Poland's membership rights in 2016?","Started_time":"2016-04-05","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?","Started_time":"2016-01-19","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?","Started_time":"2016-01-05","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will six party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program resume before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2015-12-22","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will anti-Islamic State forces retake Mosul before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2015-12-22","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Montenegro become a NATO member in 2016?","Started_time":"2015-12-15","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016?","Started_time":"2015-12-08","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Tesla Motors deliver more than 80,000 BEVs to customers in calendar year 2016?","Started_time":"2016-03-22","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Nissan sell more than 15,000 units of the LEAF in the US in 2016?","Started_time":"2016-06-14","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will any other US state adopt California\u2019s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-03-22","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 2017, will Google announce that it will conduct public testing of its fully autonomous vehicles in a US city?","Started_time":"2016-09-16","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the book \"Superforecasting\" be listed as a New York Times bestseller between 7 October 2016 and 2 January 2017?","Started_time":"2016-10-07","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2015-09-08","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2017, will TIME magazine announce that they will no longer be publishing a weekly print edition in the US?","Started_time":"2015-12-08","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 January 2017, will it be officially announced that Greece is leaving the eurozone?","Started_time":"2015-09-14","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016?","Started_time":"2016-05-03","Closed_time":"2016-12-31","Challenges_list":["Early Warning Project 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and Joseph Kabila Kabange will win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, and Moise Katumbi Chapwe will win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, but neither Kabila nor Katumbi will win":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, and Joseph Kabila Kabange will win","Yes, and Moise Katumbi Chapwe will win","Yes, but neither Kabila nor Katumbi will win","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage?","Started_time":"2015-12-15","Closed_time":"2016-12-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo?","Started_time":"2016-08-31","Closed_time":"2016-12-22","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 30 November 2016":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 December 2016 and 31 May 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Between 1 June 2017 and 30 November 2017, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Not before 30 November 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 30 November 2016","Between 1 December 2016 and 31 May 2017, inclusive","Between 1 June 2017 and 30 November 2017, inclusive","Not before 30 November 2017"],"target":"Between 1 December 2016 and 31 May 2017, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Faraday Future, NextEV, or Atieva start taking orders for electric vehicles in 2016?","Started_time":"2016-05-17","Closed_time":"2016-12-14","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many people will vote in the 2016 presidential election?","Started_time":"2016-09-02","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 113 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Between 113 million and 135 million, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67%"},"More than 135 million":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"}},"choices":["Less than 113 million","Between 113 million and 135 million, inclusive","More than 135 million"],"target":"More than 135 million"}
{"Question":"Will the winner of the popular vote in the US presidential election also win the electoral college?","Started_time":"2016-06-21","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which presidential candidate will win Michigan?","Started_time":"2016-07-15","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Hillary Clinton":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"Donald Trump":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"}},"choices":["Someone else","Hillary Clinton","Donald Trump"],"target":"Donald Trump"}
{"Question":"Who will Donald Trump announce as his choice for Secretary of State?","Started_time":"2016-12-09","Closed_time":"2016-12-13","Challenges_list":["In the News"],"Tags_list":["Foreign Policy","US Politics","This question was closed on  'Rex Tillerson' with an end date of 13 December 2016 (CNN, Newsweek).","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated"],"Description":"President-elect Donald Trump has yet to announce his pick for Secretary of State (Politico, ABC News, NY Times).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"John Bolton":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bob Corker":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Rudy Giuliani":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Dana Rohrabacher":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Mitt Romney":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Rex Tillerson":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["John Bolton","Bob Corker","Rudy Giuliani","Dana Rohrabacher","Mitt Romney","Rex Tillerson","Someone else"],"target":"Rex Tillerson"}
{"Question":"Will The Birth of a Nation be nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama?","Started_time":"2016-11-04","Closed_time":"2016-12-11","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment","This question was closed as \"no\" with an end date of 11 December 2016. Birth of  Nation was not nominated for \"Best Motion Picture\". (LA Times)","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated"],"Description":"The Birth of a Nation tells the story of Nat Turner, who led an uprising of slaves in Virginia in 1831 (Fox Searchlight Pictures, Rotten Tomatoes, IMDb). Nominations for the 74th Annual Golden Globe Awards will be announced on 12 December 2016 at 8:00am EST (Golden Globe Awards).","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win Austria's upcoming presidential election?","Started_time":"2016-08-09","Closed_time":"2016-12-04","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Norbert Hofer":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"Alexander Van der Bellen":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Norbert Hofer","Alexander Van der Bellen","None of the above"],"target":"Alexander Van der Bellen"}
{"Question":"Will North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory (R) be re-elected this November?","Started_time":"2016-06-03","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"67.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many worker protests will the China Labor Bulletin record from 1 May 2016 to 1 November 2016?","Started_time":"2016-04-19","Closed_time":"2016-10-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 5,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Fewer than 1,200":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"More than 2,000 but less than 3,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Between 1,200 and 2,000, inclusive","Between 3,000 and 5,000, inclusive","More than 5,000","Fewer than 1,200","More than 2,000 but less than 3,000"],"target":"Fewer than 1,200"}
{"Question":"Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ?","Started_time":"2015-11-24","Closed_time":"2016-11-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will the settlement price of the January 2017 Dubai\/Oman Crude Oil futures contract be on 30 November 2016?","Started_time":"2016-08-31","Closed_time":"2016-11-30","Challenges_list":["Arab Strategy Forum - State of the World 2017","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than $40":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Between $40 and $50, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"93%"},"More than $50 but less than $60":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"$60 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than $40","Between $40 and $50, inclusive","More than $50 but less than $60","$60 or more"],"target":"Between $40 and $50, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Alibaba's market capitalisation exceed Tencent's at any point between 23 November 2016 and 1 June 2017?","Started_time":"2016-11-22","Closed_time":"2016-11-28","Challenges_list":["The World in 2017"],"Tags_list":["Business","This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 28 November 2016. Alibaba\u2019s market capitalisation exceeded Tencent\u2019s on 28 November.","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated"],"Description":"Alibaba, an e-commerce goliath, and Tencent, a gaming company best known for its messaging and payments app WeChat, are two of the most valuable technology companies in China (CNBC, The World in 2017). Bloomberg provides a daily snapshot of market-capitalisation figures in the list of financial indicators below their price graphs: Bloomberg: Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd, Bloomberg: Tencent Holdings Ltd.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will win Season 23 of Dancing with the Stars?","Started_time":"2016-11-04","Closed_time":"2016-11-22","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":["Entertainment","This question was closed with the correct answer \"Laurie Hernandez and Valentin Chmerkovskiy\" with an end date of 22 November 2016 (ESPN, People, Entertainment Weekly).","See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated"],"Description":"Season 23 of Dancing with the Stars continues on Monday nights on ABC.","Possible_Answers_dict":{"Marilu Henner & Derek Hough":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Laurie Hernandez & Valentin Chmerkovskiy":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"84%"},"James Hinchcliffe & Sharna Burgess":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Calvin Johnson Jr. & Lindsay Arnold":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Terra Jol\u00e9 & Sasha Farber":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Jana Kramer & Gleb Savchenko":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Marilu Henner & Derek Hough","Laurie Hernandez & Valentin Chmerkovskiy","James Hinchcliffe & Sharna Burgess","Calvin Johnson Jr. & Lindsay Arnold","Terra Jol\u00e9 & Sasha Farber","Jana Kramer & Gleb Savchenko"],"target":"Laurie Hernandez & Valentin Chmerkovskiy"}
{"Question":"(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?","Started_time":"2016-02-24","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Republican":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15%"},"Other":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Democrat":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85%"}},"choices":["Republican","Other","Democrat"],"target":"Republican"}
{"Question":"Will Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) be re-elected this November?","Started_time":"2016-09-30","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"66.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"33.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will be elected senator from Nevada this November?","Started_time":"2016-09-30","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Catherine Cortez Masto (D)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"Joe Heck (R)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Catherine Cortez Masto (D)","Joe Heck (R)","None of the above"],"target":"Catherine Cortez Masto (D)"}
{"Question":"Will the winner of the 2016 presidential election win the popular vote by 10 or more percentage points?","Started_time":"2016-09-02","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) be re-elected this November?","Started_time":"2016-08-12","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which presidential candidate will win Virginia?","Started_time":"2016-07-29","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Hillary Clinton":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90%"},"Donald Trump":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Hillary Clinton","Donald Trump","Someone else"],"target":"Hillary Clinton"}
{"Question":"Who will win the 2016 US presidential election?","Started_time":"2016-01-21","Closed_time":"2016-11-08","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"A Democrat":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"76%"},"A Republican":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"24%"},"Other":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["A Democrat","A Republican","Other"],"target":"A Republican"}
{"Question":"Who will win the World Series?","Started_time":"2016-09-02","Closed_time":"2016-11-03","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Toronto Blue Jays":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Cleveland Indians":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"54%"},"Texas Rangers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Washington Nationals":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Chicago Cubs":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"46%"},"Los Angeles Dodgers":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Toronto Blue Jays","Cleveland Indians","Texas Rangers","Washington Nationals","Chicago Cubs","Los Angeles Dodgers"],"target":"Chicago Cubs"}
{"Question":"Will Turkey still be under a state of emergency on 1 November 2016?","Started_time":"2016-09-20","Closed_time":"2016-11-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, nationwide":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Yes, but only in some areas":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Yes, nationwide","Yes, but only in some areas","No"],"target":"Yes, nationwide"}
{"Question":"Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016?","Started_time":"2016-04-22","Closed_time":"2016-11-01","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which book will win the 2016 Man Booker Prize?","Started_time":"2016-09-16","Closed_time":"2016-10-25","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Sellout by Paul Beatty":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Hot Milk by Deborah Levy":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"28%"},"His Bloody Project by Graeme Macrae Burnet":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"13%"},"Eileen by Ottessa Moshfegh":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"All That Man Is by David Szalay":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Do Not Say We Have Nothing by Madeleine Thien":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"}},"choices":["The Sellout by Paul Beatty","Hot Milk by Deborah Levy","His Bloody Project by Graeme Macrae Burnet","Eileen by Ottessa Moshfegh","All That Man Is by David Szalay","Do Not Say We Have Nothing by Madeleine Thien"],"target":"The Sellout by Paul Beatty"}
{"Question":"Which main character will be the first to die in Season 6 of the Walking Dead?","Started_time":"2015-09-08","Closed_time":"2016-10-23","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"All of the above will survive season 6":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"59%"},"Glenn":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Rick":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Carl":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Daryl":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Carol":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["All of the above will survive season 6","Glenn","Rick","Carl","Daryl","Carol"],"target":"All of the above will survive season 6"}
{"Question":"Before 18 October 2016, will Iran's Guardian Council approve legislation which would restrict the use of the death penalty?","Started_time":"2016-06-07","Closed_time":"2016-10-17","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?","Started_time":"2016-02-09","Closed_time":"2016-10-17","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["No","Yes, after Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran","Yes, before Saudi Arabia announces that its ambassador will return to Tehran"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Afghanistan's parliamentary elections be held as scheduled on 15 October 2016?","Started_time":"2016-05-03","Closed_time":"2016-10-16","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 18 October 2016, will there be a confrontation involving Iran's and another country's national military forces that produces at least one fatality in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman?","Started_time":"2016-08-02","Closed_time":"2016-10-17","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran?","Started_time":"2016-04-19","Closed_time":"2016-10-17","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?","Started_time":"2016-02-09","Closed_time":"2016-10-17","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the Women's World Surf League Championship Tour?","Started_time":"2016-07-19","Closed_time":"2016-10-12","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Courtney Conlogue":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Tyler Wright":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"Carissa Moore":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Courtney Conlogue","Tyler Wright","Carissa Moore","Someone else"],"target":"Tyler Wright"}
{"Question":"Will more than 6,000 new battery electric vehicles be registered in Germany in the third quarter of 2016?","Started_time":"2016-05-17","Closed_time":"2016-09-30","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will a woman be appointed to be the next secretary general of the UN?","Started_time":"2016-05-17","Closed_time":"2016-10-14","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Between 12 August 2016 and the end of 2016, will any US state enact legislation that allows autonomous vehicles to operate on its public roads?","Started_time":"2016-08-12","Closed_time":"2016-09-29","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Malaysia impose capital controls before 1 October 2016?","Started_time":"2015-10-05","Closed_time":"2016-09-30","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-14","Closed_time":"2016-09-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the peace agreement between Colombia and the FARC win approval in the upcoming national plebiscite?","Started_time":"2016-09-20","Closed_time":"2016-10-02","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the outcome of Hungary's referendum on the European Union's right to set quotas for migrant relocation?","Started_time":"2016-08-31","Closed_time":"2016-10-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Turnout will reach or exceed 50% and a majority will vote \"Yes\"":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Turnout will reach or exceed 50% and a majority will vote \"No\"":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Turnout will not reach 50%":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["Turnout will reach or exceed 50% and a majority will vote \"Yes\"","Turnout will reach or exceed 50% and a majority will vote \"No\"","Turnout will not reach 50%"],"target":"Turnout will not reach 50%"}
{"Question":"Will a Spanish prime minister win a vote of confidence before 1 October 2016?","Started_time":"2016-06-07","Closed_time":"2016-09-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Iran officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016?","Started_time":"2016-05-10","Closed_time":"2016-09-30","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will be the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi on 30 September 2016?","Started_time":"2016-03-08","Closed_time":"2016-09-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 6.40":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than 6.60 but less than 6.80":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"6.80 or more":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Less than 6.40","Between 6.40 and 6.60, inclusive","More than 6.60 but less than 6.80","6.80 or more"],"target":"More than 6.60 but less than 6.80"}
{"Question":"Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?","Started_time":"2016-02-16","Closed_time":"2016-09-30","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, with only Iran":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, with both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, with only Saudi Arabia":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, with only Iran","Yes, with both","Yes, with only Saudi Arabia","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forum\u2019s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index?","Started_time":"2015-12-08","Closed_time":"2016-09-28","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"In the top 50":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 51 and 60, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 61 and 75, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"83%"},"Above 75":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["In the top 50","Between 51 and 60, inclusive","Between 61 and 75, inclusive","Above 75"],"target":"Above 75"}
{"Question":"When will Tesla release a software update that adds off-ramp capabilities to its Autopilot system?","Started_time":"2016-08-12","Closed_time":"2016-09-21","Challenges_list":["Disruptions from Vehicle Innovations (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 November 2016":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Between 1 November 2016 and 31 December 2016, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Not before 1 January 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 November 2016","Between 1 November 2016 and 31 December 2016, inclusive","Not before 1 January 2017"],"target":"Before 1 November 2016"}
{"Question":"Who will win the upcoming election for the United Kingdom's Labour Party?","Started_time":"2016-08-09","Closed_time":"2016-09-24","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jeremy Corbyn":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98%"},"Owen Smith":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Jeremy Corbyn","Owen Smith","None of the above"],"target":"Jeremy Corbyn"}
{"Question":"How many seats will United Russia win in September's Russian State Duma elections?","Started_time":"2016-02-02","Closed_time":"2016-09-18","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than half":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"At least two-thirds of all seats":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"At least one-half but less than two-thirds":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"}},"choices":["Less than half","At least two-thirds of all seats","At least one-half but less than two-thirds"],"target":"At least two-thirds of all seats"}
{"Question":"Which show will win the Emmy for \"Outstanding Drama Series\"?","Started_time":"2016-08-05","Closed_time":"2016-09-18","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The Americans":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Better Call Saul":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Downton Abbey":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Game of Thrones":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"74%"},"Homeland":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"House of Cards":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Mr. Robot":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"}},"choices":["The Americans","Better Call Saul","Downton Abbey","Game of Thrones","Homeland","House of Cards","Mr. Robot"],"target":"Game of Thrones"}
{"Question":"When will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?","Started_time":"2016-08-31","Closed_time":"2016-09-14","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Not before 1 January 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 1 October 2016 and 31 December 2016, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Before 1 October 2016":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Not before 1 January 2017","Between 1 October 2016 and 31 December 2016, inclusive","Before 1 October 2016"],"target":"Before 1 October 2016"}
{"Question":"Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2016-08-10","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many countries will Russia remove from its food embargo list before 6 August 2016?","Started_time":"2015-10-05","Closed_time":"2016-08-05","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"0":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 1 and 5, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"More than five, but less than all":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"All":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["0","Between 1 and 5, inclusive","More than five, but less than all","All"],"target":"0"}
{"Question":"Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?","Started_time":"2016-02-16","Closed_time":"2016-08-05","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 August 2016, will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine?","Started_time":"2016-06-21","Closed_time":"2016-07-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS?","Started_time":"2015-11-17","Closed_time":"2016-07-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, only Article 4":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, only Article 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, only Article 4","Yes, only Article 5","Yes, both Article 4 and Article 5","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?","Started_time":"2016-01-21","Closed_time":"2016-07-25","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Hillary Clinton":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Martin O\u2019Malley":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Hillary Clinton","Martin O\u2019Malley","Bernie Sanders"],"target":"Hillary Clinton"}
{"Question":"Who will Hillary Clinton pick as her vice presidential running mate?","Started_time":"2016-07-08","Closed_time":"2016-07-23","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Cory Booker":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Sherrod Brown":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Julian Castro":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Timothy Kaine":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"81%"},"Elizabeth Warren":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"}},"choices":["Cory Booker","Sherrod Brown","Julian Castro","Timothy Kaine","Elizabeth Warren","Someone else"],"target":"Timothy Kaine"}
{"Question":"When will clinical human trials for a Zika vaccine begin?","Started_time":"2016-03-22","Closed_time":"2016-07-22","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 January 2017":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 July 2017":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Before 1 January 2017","Between 1 January 2017 and 30 June 2017","Not before 1 July 2017"],"target":"Before 1 January 2017"}
{"Question":"Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election?","Started_time":"2015-11-17","Closed_time":"2016-07-20","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016","The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jeb Bush":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ben Carson":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ted Cruz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Carly Fiorina":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Marco Rubio":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Donald Trump":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Jeb Bush","Ben Carson","Ted Cruz","Carly Fiorina","Marco Rubio","Donald Trump","None of the above"],"target":"Donald Trump"}
{"Question":"Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July?","Started_time":"2016-01-21","Closed_time":"2016-07-18","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Indiana Governor Mike Pence (R) be re-elected this November?","Started_time":"2016-06-03","Closed_time":"2016-07-15","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Donald Trump pick one of the former candidates for the Republican nomination as his vice presidential running mate?","Started_time":"2016-05-20","Closed_time":"2016-07-15","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"In 2016 will the Permanent Court of Arbitration rule that China's \"nine-dash line\" is contrary to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?","Started_time":"2016-03-22","Closed_time":"2016-07-12","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the \"Serial\" podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-14","Closed_time":"2016-06-30","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"What will happen to the European Union's sectoral sanctions against Russia, currently set to expire in July 2016?","Started_time":"2016-05-24","Closed_time":"2016-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"The sanctions will be extended":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"},"Some of the sanctions will be extended, but others will be relaxed or allowed to expire":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"The sanctions will expire":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["The sanctions will be extended","Some of the sanctions will be extended, but others will be relaxed or allowed to expire","The sanctions will expire"],"target":"The sanctions will be extended"}
{"Question":"Before 1 July 2016, will South Korea announce that the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system will be deployed on the Korean Peninsula?","Started_time":"2016-04-05","Closed_time":"2016-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Iran agree to cap its oil output before 1 July 2016?","Started_time":"2016-03-15","Closed_time":"2016-07-01","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Syrian government forces retake the city of Aleppo before 1 July 2016?","Started_time":"2016-03-01","Closed_time":"2016-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016?","Started_time":"2016-01-12","Closed_time":"2016-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will either the Palestinian Authority or Israel announce a halt in security cooperation before 1 July 2016?","Started_time":"2015-11-10","Closed_time":"2016-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will President Putin meet with Prime Minister Abe in Japan before 1 July 2016?","Started_time":"2015-10-27","Closed_time":"2016-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before July 2016?","Started_time":"2016-05-10","Closed_time":"2016-07-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?","Started_time":"2016-02-09","Closed_time":"2016-07-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 13 March 2016":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before 1 July 2016":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before 13 March 2016","Between 13 March and 30 June 2016, inclusive","Not before 1 July 2016"],"target":"Not before 1 July 2016"}
{"Question":"Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?","Started_time":"2015-10-02","Closed_time":"2016-07-01","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union?","Started_time":"2016-03-01","Closed_time":"2016-06-23","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Afghanistan's Parliament confirm a Minister of Defense before 1 July 2016?","Started_time":"2015-11-24","Closed_time":"2016-06-20","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2015-2016 NBA Finals?","Started_time":"2016-03-28","Closed_time":"2016-06-19","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Cleveland Cavaliers":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20%"},"Another team from the Eastern Conference":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Golden State Warriors":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80%"},"San Antonio Spurs":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Another team from the Western Conference":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Cleveland Cavaliers","Another team from the Eastern Conference","Golden State Warriors","San Antonio Spurs","Another team from the Western Conference"],"target":"Cleveland Cavaliers"}
{"Question":"How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?","Started_time":"2016-01-12","Closed_time":"2016-04-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 10,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"},"Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10%"},"More than 15,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Less than 10,000","Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive","More than 15,000"],"target":"Less than 10,000"}
{"Question":"What will be the average number of Bitcoin transactions per day in the first week of June 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-28","Closed_time":"2016-06-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"More than 250,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Less than 125,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95%"}},"choices":["More than 250,000","Less than 125,000","Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive"],"target":"Between 125,000 and 250,000, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?","Started_time":"2016-03-08","Closed_time":"2016-06-05","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"80.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"20.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"When will Paul Ryan formally endorse Donald Trump for president?","Started_time":"2016-05-20","Closed_time":"2016-06-02","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Not before the general election":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Before the Republican National Convention":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"At or after the Republican National Convention":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"}},"choices":["Not before the general election","Before the Republican National Convention","At or after the Republican National Convention"],"target":"Before the Republican National Convention"}
{"Question":"Who will win the upcoming Philippine presidential election?","Started_time":"2016-02-16","Closed_time":"2016-05-09","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jejomar Binay":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Miriam Defensor-Santiago":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Rodrigo Duterte":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97%"},"Grace Poe":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Mar Roxas":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Jejomar Binay","Miriam Defensor-Santiago","Rodrigo Duterte","Grace Poe","Mar Roxas","None of the above"],"target":"Rodrigo Duterte"}
{"Question":"Will a candidate included on the \"List of Hope\" or the \"People's Expert's List\" be elected as the next chairman of Iran's Assembly of Experts?","Started_time":"2016-04-19","Closed_time":"2016-05-24","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the expanded Panama Canal open to shipping before 15 May 2016?","Started_time":"2015-11-17","Closed_time":"2016-05-15","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will be the next mayor of London?","Started_time":"2016-01-19","Closed_time":"2016-05-05","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Sadiq Khan":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"92%"},"None of the above":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Zac Goldsmith":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["Sadiq Khan","None of the above","Zac Goldsmith"],"target":"Sadiq Khan"}
{"Question":"Will \"Captain America: Civil War\" gross more in its opening weekend in the US than \"Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice\" did?","Started_time":"2016-04-12","Closed_time":"2016-05-08","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will John Kasich drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?","Started_time":"2016-03-18","Closed_time":"2016-05-04","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before the New York primary":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"94%"},"After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"},"Not before the Republican National Convention":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3%"}},"choices":["Before the New York primary","After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary","After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary","After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins","Not before the Republican National Convention"],"target":"After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary"}
{"Question":"When will Ted Cruz drop out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination?","Started_time":"2016-03-18","Closed_time":"2016-05-04","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before the New York primary":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Not before the Republican National Convention":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"}},"choices":["Before the New York primary","After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary","After the Nebraska primary but before the California primary","After the California primary but before the Republican National Convention begins","Not before the Republican National Convention"],"target":"After the New York primary but before the Nebraska primary"}
{"Question":"Will either of the following parties be part of the ruling coalition after Spain's upcoming elections?","Started_time":"2015-10-05","Closed_time":"2016-05-03","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Podemos":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ciudadanos":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Both":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Neither":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Podemos","Ciudadanos","Both","Neither"],"target":"Neither"}
{"Question":"Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections?","Started_time":"2015-12-15","Closed_time":"2016-04-29","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?","Started_time":"2016-02-16","Closed_time":"2016-04-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?","Started_time":"2016-02-02","Closed_time":"2016-04-30","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016","Early Warning Project 2016","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will local elections be held in the city of Donetsk before 1 May 2016?","Started_time":"2016-01-19","Closed_time":"2016-04-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"}},"choices":["Yes, and the elections will be recognized by the government of Ukraine","Yes, but the elections will not be recognized by the government in Ukraine","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Winds of Winter be released before Season 6 of Game of Thrones airs?","Started_time":"2015-10-05","Closed_time":"2016-04-24","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Haiti hold run-off presidential elections as scheduled on 24 April 2016?","Started_time":"2016-04-05","Closed_time":"2016-04-24","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Iran host a head of state or head of government from one of the G7 countries on an official visit before 1 July 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-08","Closed_time":"2016-04-12","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the 2016 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Championship?","Started_time":"2016-03-28","Closed_time":"2016-04-05","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"North Carolina":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"63%"},"Oklahoma":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Syracuse":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Villanova":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"37%"}},"choices":["North Carolina","Oklahoma","Syracuse","Villanova"],"target":"Villanova"}
{"Question":"Before April 2016, will the French Army or Foreign Legion deploy combat troops to fight the Islamic State on the ground in Syria or Iraq?","Started_time":"2015-12-08","Closed_time":"2016-03-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"How many new jobs will the US economy create in January 2016?","Started_time":"2016-01-05","Closed_time":"2016-01-31","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 175,000":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Between 175,000 and 225,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"More than 225,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"}},"choices":["Less than 175,000","Between 175,000 and 225,000, inclusive","More than 225,000"],"target":"Less than 175,000"}
{"Question":"Will India win the 2016 ICC World Twenty20 cricket tournament?","Started_time":"2015-12-15","Closed_time":"2016-03-31","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"26.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"74.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Moody's downgrade South Africa's government issuer rating to B or below before 1 April 2016?","Started_time":"2016-01-05","Closed_time":"2016-03-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Vladimir Putin attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, DC, in March 2016?","Started_time":"2015-11-17","Closed_time":"2016-03-31","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will the US Justice Department file criminal charges against Volkswagen or any of its employees before 30 March 2016?","Started_time":"2015-10-19","Closed_time":"2016-03-29","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-08","Closed_time":"2016-03-31","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?","Started_time":"2015-12-08","Closed_time":"2016-03-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016?","Started_time":"2016-02-09","Closed_time":"2016-03-24","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Florida primary on 15 March?","Started_time":"2016-03-04","Closed_time":"2016-03-16","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ted Cruz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"},"Donald Trump":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"John Kasich":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Marco Rubio":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"17%"}},"choices":["Ted Cruz","Donald Trump","John Kasich","Marco Rubio"],"target":"Donald Trump"}
{"Question":"Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Ohio primary on 15 March?","Started_time":"2016-03-04","Closed_time":"2016-03-16","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Ted Cruz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"John Kasich":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56%"},"Marco Rubio":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Donald Trump":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"}},"choices":["Ted Cruz","John Kasich","Marco Rubio","Donald Trump"],"target":"John Kasich"}
{"Question":"Will Google's AlphaGo beat world champion Lee Sedol in the five-game Go match planned for March 2016?","Started_time":"2016-02-02","Closed_time":"2016-03-12","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"98.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many of the BRIC countries will report positive annualised growth for the quarter ending in December 2015?","Started_time":"2015-12-08","Closed_time":"2016-01-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"None":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"One":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Two":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96%"},"Three":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Four":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["None","One","Two","Three","Four"],"target":"Two"}
{"Question":"Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?","Started_time":"2015-11-17","Closed_time":"2016-02-20","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will be the next managing director of the IMF?","Started_time":"2015-11-24","Closed_time":"2016-02-19","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Someone else from Europe":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Christine Lagarde will serve a second term":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99%"},"Someone from outside Europe":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Someone else from Europe","Christine Lagarde will serve a second term","Someone from outside Europe"],"target":"Christine Lagarde will serve a second term"}
{"Question":"Which toy will win the Innovative Toy of the Year Award for 2016?","Started_time":"2015-12-22","Closed_time":"2016-02-12","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Star Wars Science - Jedi Force Levitator":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"43%"},"Flipsies\u2122 Sandy's House & Ocean Cruiser":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"i-loom":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Laser Maze\u2122 Jr.":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"7%"},"Makey Makey Classic":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"19%"},"Meccanoid G15":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"16%"},"MiPosaur":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"}},"choices":["Star Wars Science - Jedi Force Levitator","Flipsies\u2122 Sandy's House & Ocean Cruiser","i-loom","Laser Maze\u2122 Jr.","Makey Makey Classic","Meccanoid G15","MiPosaur"],"target":"Meccanoid G15"}
{"Question":"Which Republican presidential candidate will win the New Hampshire primary on 9 February?","Started_time":"2016-01-21","Closed_time":"2016-02-09","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Rand Paul":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Marco Rubio":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21%"},"Ben Carson":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Donald Trump":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42%"},"Jim Gilmore":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"John Kasich":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Chris Christie":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Rick Santorum":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ted Cruz":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"32%"},"Jeb Bush":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Carly Fiorina":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Mike Huckabee":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Rand Paul","Marco Rubio","Ben Carson","Donald Trump","Jim Gilmore","John Kasich","Chris Christie","Rick Santorum","Ted Cruz","Jeb Bush","Carly Fiorina","Mike Huckabee"],"target":"Donald Trump"}
{"Question":"Will Hillary Clinton win New Hampshire's Democratic primary?","Started_time":"2015-09-21","Closed_time":"2016-02-10","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"44.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"56.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which team will win the NFL\u2019s Super Bowl in 2016?","Started_time":"2015-11-24","Closed_time":"2016-02-07","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016","Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Carolina Panthers (was a team from the NFC)":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"60%"},"Denver Broncos (was a team from the AFC)":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"40%"}},"choices":["Carolina Panthers (was a team from the NFC)","Denver Broncos (was a team from the AFC)"],"target":"Denver Broncos (was a team from the AFC)"}
{"Question":"Will North Korea launch a land based missile with the capacity to reach Alaska, Hawaii, or the continental United States before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2016-02-06","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"42.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"58.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016?","Started_time":"2016-01-12","Closed_time":"2016-02-02","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Which Democratic presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?","Started_time":"2016-01-21","Closed_time":"2016-02-01","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Hillary Clinton":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"},"Martin O\u2019Malley":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Bernie Sanders":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"47%"}},"choices":["Hillary Clinton","Martin O\u2019Malley","Bernie Sanders"],"target":"Hillary Clinton"}
{"Question":"Will Donald Trump win Iowa's Republican caucus?","Started_time":"2015-09-21","Closed_time":"2016-02-02","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"30.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"70.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Which Republican presidential candidate will win the Iowa caucuses on 1 February?","Started_time":"2016-01-21","Closed_time":"2016-02-01","Challenges_list":["Monkey Cage US Election 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Jeb Bush":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Ben Carson":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Mike Huckabee":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Chris Christie":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Ted Cruz":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"34%"},"Carly Fiorina":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Jim Gilmore":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"John Kasich":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Rand Paul":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Marco Rubio":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"12%"},"Rick Santorum":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Donald Trump":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"}},"choices":["Jeb Bush","Ben Carson","Mike Huckabee","Chris Christie","Ted Cruz","Carly Fiorina","Jim Gilmore","John Kasich","Rand Paul","Marco Rubio","Rick Santorum","Donald Trump"],"target":"Ted Cruz"}
{"Question":"Will Apple sell more than 75 million iPhones in its December quarter?","Started_time":"2015-09-28","Closed_time":"2016-01-26","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"79.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"21.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will restrictions on Iran's access to SWIFT be lifted before 1 August 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-14","Closed_time":"2016-01-17","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Iran release Jason Rezaian before 31 October 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2016-01-16","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the IAEA verify that Iran's uranium stockpile has been reduced to less than 300 kg of low-enriched uranium before 1 June 2016?","Started_time":"2015-10-02","Closed_time":"2016-01-16","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"82.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"18.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will \"implementation day\" for the Iranian nuclear deal occur before Iran's legislative elections?","Started_time":"2015-11-03","Closed_time":"2016-01-16","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"How many seats in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January's elections?","Started_time":"2015-09-28","Closed_time":"2016-01-16","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Plurality":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"31%"},"Majority":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"68%"},"Not a plurality":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"}},"choices":["Plurality","Majority","Not a plurality"],"target":"Majority"}
{"Question":"Will a trilateral meeting take place between Chinese President Xi Jinping, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and South Korean President Park Geun-hye before 1 January 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2015-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"What will the end-of-day closing value for the dollar against the renminbi be on 1 January 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2016-01-01","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 6.30":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 6.35 but less than 6.40":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"6.40 or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89%"}},"choices":["Less than 6.30","Between 6.30 and 6.35, inclusive","More than 6.35 but less than 6.40","6.40 or more"],"target":"6.40 or more"}
{"Question":"What will be the lowest closing spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Agency, between 14 September 2015 and 30 December 2015?","Started_time":"2015-09-14","Closed_time":"2015-12-30","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"88%"},"More than $40.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1%"},"Less than $34.00 per barrel":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"}},"choices":["Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive","More than $40.00 per barrel","Less than $34.00 per barrel"],"target":"Between $34.00 and $40.00 per barrel, inclusive"}
{"Question":"Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?","Started_time":"2015-11-10","Closed_time":"2016-01-06","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"52.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"48.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will there be a partial or full government shutdown in the United States before the end of the year?","Started_time":"2015-09-28","Closed_time":"2015-12-31","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be a dissolution or suspension of the Northern Irish Assembly before the end of the year?","Started_time":"2015-09-21","Closed_time":"2015-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"As of 31 December 2015, how many refugees and migrants will UNHCR report as having arrived in Europe by sea?","Started_time":"2015-09-21","Closed_time":"2015-12-29","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Less than 560,000":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"More than 710,000 but less than 1 million":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"23%"},"1 million or more":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"77%"}},"choices":["Less than 560,000","Between 560,000 and 710,000, inclusive","More than 710,000 but less than 1 million","1 million or more"],"target":"1 million or more"}
{"Question":"Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year?","Started_time":"2015-10-19","Closed_time":"2015-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Before the end of the year, will the Bank of Japan announce an increase in asset purchases under its quantitative easing program?","Started_time":"2015-09-28","Closed_time":"2015-12-31","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"10.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"90.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Jurassic World (2015) pass Titanic (1997) to become the #2 all-time highest-grossing movie domestically by the end of the year?","Started_time":"2015-09-14","Closed_time":"2015-12-31","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will OPEC announce any changes to its production quota before 1 January 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2015-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"3.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"97.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will Montenegro's Milo Djukanovic resign, lose a vote of confidence, or cease to be Prime Minister before 1 January 2016?","Started_time":"2015-11-10","Closed_time":"2015-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed before 1 January 2016?","Started_time":"2015-10-27","Closed_time":"2015-12-31","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will both houses of Congress pass legislation lifting or relaxing the oil-export ban before 1 April 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-14","Closed_time":"2015-12-18","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the US federal-funds rate be increased before the end of the year [2015]?","Started_time":"2015-09-08","Closed_time":"2015-12-16","Challenges_list":["The Economist's World in 2016"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"When will Iran next launch a ballistic missile?","Started_time":"2015-11-03","Closed_time":"2015-11-21","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)","GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Before 1 March 2016":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"6%"},"Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"8%"},"Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11%"},"Not before 1 July 2016":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75%"}},"choices":["Before 1 March 2016","Between 1 March and 30 April 2016, inclusive","Between 1 May and 30 June 2016, inclusive","Not before 1 July 2016"],"target":"Before 1 March 2016"}
{"Question":"Will the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) maintain its majority in Venezuela's National Assembly after the next legislative elections?","Started_time":"2015-10-27","Closed_time":"2015-12-06","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Will there be an initial public offering on either the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange before 1 January 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2015-11-30","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the Export-Import Bank of the United States be re-authorized before 1 January 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2015-12-04","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"85.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"15.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will NATO invite Montenegro to join the alliance before the end of the year?","Started_time":"2015-10-05","Closed_time":"2015-12-02","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"11.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"89.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Joe Biden announce that he is running for President of the United States before Thanksgiving?","Started_time":"2015-09-14","Closed_time":"2015-11-26","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"1.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"99.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"No"}
{"Question":"Who will win the presidential election in Argentina?","Started_time":"2015-09-08","Closed_time":"2015-11-23","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Sergio Massa":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Mauricio Macri":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"49%"},"Daniel Scioli":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"51%"}},"choices":["Someone else","Sergio Massa","Mauricio Macri","Daniel Scioli"],"target":"Mauricio Macri"}
{"Question":"Who will win the World Series?","Started_time":"2015-09-08","Closed_time":"2015-11-02","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"A team from the National League":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35%"},"A team from the American League":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"65%"}},"choices":["A team from the National League","A team from the American League"],"target":"A team from the American League"}
{"Question":"How many seats in Poland's Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections?","Started_time":"2015-09-08","Closed_time":"2015-10-25","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Majority":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"Plurality":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"Not a Plurality":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Majority","Plurality","Not a Plurality"],"target":"Majority"}
{"Question":"How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey's snap elections?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2015-11-01","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"A majority":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"22%"},"A plurality":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"78%"},"Not a plurality":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["A majority","A plurality","Not a plurality"],"target":"A majority"}
{"Question":"Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?","Started_time":"2015-09-21","Closed_time":"2015-10-19","Challenges_list":[],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Conservative":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"41%"},"Liberal":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"57%"},"New Democratic Party":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"2%"},"Other":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Conservative","Liberal","New Democratic Party","Other"],"target":"Liberal"}
{"Question":"Will the Iranian Parliament approve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action before 1 November 2015?","Started_time":"2015-09-14","Closed_time":"2015-10-13","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"96.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the book \u201cSuperforecasting\" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2015-10-08","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"35.50%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"64.50%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Who will Twitter name as their permanent CEO before the end of the year?","Started_time":"2015-09-21","Closed_time":"2015-10-05","Challenges_list":["Just for Fun (2015-2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Someone else":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"No one will be named CEO before the end of the year":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Jack Dorsey":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"100%"},"Adam Bain":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"},"Anthony Noto":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"0%"}},"choices":["Someone else","No one will be named CEO before the end of the year","Jack Dorsey","Adam Bain","Anthony Noto"],"target":"Jack Dorsey"}
{"Question":"Will Russians conduct airstrikes in Syria before 1 May 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-21","Closed_time":"2015-09-30","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"95.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Russia officially lift any part of its food embargo on the United States, any or all of the European Union member states, Canada, Australia, Norway, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro or Liechtenstein before 6 August 2016?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2015-09-17","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"25.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"75.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?","Started_time":"2015-09-14","Closed_time":"2015-09-21","Challenges_list":["Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"Yes":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"45.00%"},"No":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"55.00%"}},"choices":["Yes","No"],"target":"Yes"}
{"Question":"Will Congress pass a resolution disapproving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action?","Started_time":"2015-09-01","Closed_time":"2015-09-18","Challenges_list":["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"],"Tags_list":[],"Description":null,"Possible_Answers_dict":{"No":{"Correct?":true,"Final Crowd Forecast":"91%"},"Yes, but the resolution will be vetoed by the President and the veto will stand":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"4%"},"Yes, and the resolution will become law":{"Correct?":false,"Final Crowd Forecast":"5%"}},"choices":["No","Yes, but the resolution will be vetoed by the President and the veto will stand","Yes, and the resolution will become law"],"target":"No"}