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metaculus_binary.json

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-{"question": "Will advanced LIGO announce discovery of gravitational waves by Jan. 31 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will SpaceX successfully land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge by February 28, 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will we confirm evidence for megastructures orbiting the star KIC 8462852?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "The FAA to soon open the door to commercial use of unmanned aerial systems?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the cost of sequencing a human genome fall below $500 by mid 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Twin Prime Conjecture be positively resolved in 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will AI systems that can generate a synopsis of a viewed video soon exist?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": "In late 2014 Google [announced] a deep learning system that could automatically generate a descriptive caption of an arbitrary photograph. \n\nA significantly greater challenge is to provide an understandable and comparably accurate description of the events taking place in a short video (without audio included)."}
-{"question": "Will the experimental Wendelstein 7-X stellarator fusion device be a success?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": "Although far from human level in many respects, artificially intelligent (AI) systems and autonomous agents of greatly increasing sophistication are entering society in the form of, for example, automated trading, autonomous vehicles, robots, and autonomous weapons.\n\nSuch systems are beginning to make \"decisions\" that could save or cost human lives.  For example:\n\nRecently, an industrial robot in Germany, through a programming error, [fatally injured factory worker].\n\nAutonomous vehicles are likely to save many lives as compared to human drivers, but could in principle malfunction, or in rare cases [be forced to \"choose\" to injure one person in order to save others] (a real-life version of the philosophical [trolley problem].)    \n\n[Autonomous weapons] engineered to to choose and engage targets without human intervention exist, and although they are (presently, formally) eschewed by most militaries, seem likely to be deployed in coming years unless prevented by [international agreement]."}
-{"question": "Will NASA's K2 Mission detect a potentially habitable planet in 2015?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Does Stephen Hawking's September paper contain the essence of a solution to the black hole information paradox?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Is Graph Isomorphism solvable in Polynomial Time?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will superparticles be discovered at the Large Hadron Collider by July 8, 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "By July 1, 2016 will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the AI's major professional society take a position on \"killer robots\"?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the next elected U.S. President be (as usual) a white, Christian, non-Hispanic man?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Google make a \"watershed\" announcement about quantum computing in early December?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Experimental tests of quantum effects in cognition?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Is Nefertiti's tomb adjacent to King Tut's?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "[Tutorial:] Will Metaculus have over one thousand users signed up by May 1, 2016.", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Are there physical systems with properties that are impossible in principle to predict?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Has new a planetary-mass object been discovered in the outer solar system?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the IAU-sanctioned Exoplanet Names come into regular use?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Has a new boson been discovered at the LHC?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the SEC approve the IEX's application to operate as a registered exchange?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "By the end of 2017 will a gene drive targeting malaria be initiated?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": "The [game of Go] originated in China more than 2,500 years ago. While similar to chess in many ways, Go is much more minimalist in its ruleset and more esoteric in strategy. The aspect of pattern recognition and the huge state space of possible moves in Go (vastly greater than chess) make it an excellent metric for the capabilities of artifical intelligence. Many computer Go players have been developed, and the University of Electro-Communications (UEC) in Japan has held annual cups that pit AI vs. AI in games of Go to determine the strongest computer player. A five-year agreement was made in 2012 to grant the AI victors of the UEC cup additional matches against highly ranked human Go professionals. These are called Densei-sen, or \"electric Sage battles,\" made to test the AI's effectiveness against human opponents.\n\nThe [*Crazy Stone* go engine], created by R\u00e9mi Coulom, beat Go Sensei Norimoto Yoda in the second Densei-sen competition at the UEC. However, *Crazy Stone* was granted an extremely generous handicap of a four-stone advantage at the start. Many other computer Go players exist, including ones in development by AI giants like [Facebook] and [Google DeepMind], but none have beaten a [professionally ranked] human player without a handicap. \n\nThe next UEC cup is in March 2016 and [many prominent AI teams have already registered], including *Crazy Stone* and Facebook AI's own *darkforest*. Additionally, Google's Demis Hassabis has [implied] a new breakthrough in Go artificial intelligence. With Computer Go getting more and more powerful, an AI player beating a Go master is a real possibility."}
-{"question": "Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": "Self-driving cars (SDC) are [anticipated] to become increasingly integrated into the driving population in the coming years; greatly reducing accident rates, giving driving independence to the impaired, and reducing fuel consumption are a few major benefits (see more [here] and [here.]) [Google] and [Tesla] in the U.S. and [Baidu] in China lead the race to bring their SDC technology to market, and other companies like [Nissan] and [Mobileye] are also invested in autonomous vehicle technology. \n\nTesla's Elon Musk marked 2018 as the due date for fully autonomous Tesla vehicles in a [recent interview]. Meanwhile, Google does have autonomous SDC prototypes being live tested in [cities]. Still, economic and [regulatory] obstacles have to be overcome."}
-{"question": "Will the VIX Index print above 50 in 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the US restore funding for research that creates more dangerous versions of Influenza, MERS and SARS?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Low-mass Doppler-detected planet in 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the California drought ease significantly this Winter?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "[Tutorial:] Will a magnitude 6.0+ Earthquake hit California this year?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "by 2021, will SLAC complete an \"accelerator-on-a-chip\" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will radical new \"low-energy nuclear reaction\" technologies prove effective before 2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will EVE Online die by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a successful proof of concept for a hyperloop be demonstrated by mid-2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Has North Korea tested a boosted fission nuclear device?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will an attack on the electrical grid cause an extended power outage for a major U.S. city?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the advanced LIGO team announce the discovery of gravitational waves by end of March?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Uber drivers win a class-action lawsuit to define them as employees?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will \"Planet Nine\" be discovered in 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Google's AlphaGo beat Go player Lee Sedol in March 2016?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": "The game of Go originated in China more than 2,500 years ago. While similar to chess in many ways, Go is much more minimalist in its ruleset and more esoteric in strategy. The aspect of pattern recognition and the huge state space of possible moves in Go (vastly greater than chess) make it an excellent metric for the capabilities of artifical intelligence.  \n\nWhereas [DeepBlue defeated chess grandmaster Gary Kasparov] in 1997, it has taken 20 years for computer Go systems to become competitive with top human players. Recently, dramatic advances in [\"deep learning\"] AI systems have led to the development of much more competitive Go software.\n\nIn a [previous question] we asked if a computer Go system would defeat a professional player in 2016.  In this question the stakes go up.\n\nGoogle's [DeepMind] recently [announced] that their Go-playing program [AlphaGo] defeated European Go champion Fan Hui in a closed-door game, and will be playing against the reigning Go world champion, Lee Sedol, in a five-game match in March. **Will AlphaGo win?**"}
-{"question": "Can quantum gravity be interestingly constrained using tabletop experiments?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Mochizuki's proof of the \"abc conjecture\" be formally accepted by the mathematics community by the end of 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Brain Preservation Foundation's Large Mammal preservation prize be won by Feb 9th, 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "The Qualcomm Tricorder XPRIZE to be awarded to a team in 2017?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Wil the VIX index top 30 before March 15th, 2016?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will there be more novel new drugs approved by the FDA in 2016 than in 2015?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Facebook flight-test the Aquila drone in the U.S early this year?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "In 2016, will gravitational wave astronomy discover something completely new?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Apple help the FBI access the 'San Bernardino iPhone'?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Does Proxima have Planets?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the (theoretical) existence of \"dark matter hair\" change the way we look for dark matter?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge be successful?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a full prototype car be unveiled at the Tesla Model 3 event on March 31?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the US develop a new satellite for early-warning of severe geomagnetic storms?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a record-setting brown dwarf be discovered by the end of 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Lee Sedol defeat AlphaGo in any of the three games remaining?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "By 2017, will research definitively show Zika virus to be the direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Ambulance chasing the LHC diphoton resonance", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": "This is a sister question to the [other Metaculus Self-Driving Car question], which asked if a commercially available car would be released by 2018. This one will ask if an autonomous vehicle fleet will be in operation for ride sharing, taxi, or shuttling services. \n\nSelf-driving car (SDC) fleets are seen as perfect for rideshare business models like those of Lyft or Uber, who have effort in moving toward autonomous technology. This focus on rideshare became more apparent when [GM invested] $500M in autonomous vehicle fleet for Lyft, and the other dominant figures in autonomous vehicle tech like [Google], [Tesla], and [Ford] are developing fleets of their own with speculated intent for ridesharing. Like the sister question, technological maturity, regulation, cost, public policy, and safety are the primary obstacles in bringing fully autonomous vehicles to market."}
-{"question": "Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will robotic/AI automation be essentially ignored in the primary races?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": "Dramatic recent progress in narrow (and arguably general) purpose AI has led to a myriad of practical but nascent technologies including autonomous vehicles, automated call-answering systems, highly automated factories, medical and legal expert systems, and so on. \n\nWhile the automation of repetitive physical labor is an old story, the advent of AI/robotic systems to perform essentially any repetitive physical labor,  as well as many non-repetitive physical tasks *and also* repetitive or non-repetitive *cognitive* tasks, is likely to dramatically change the dynamics governing human labor and its place in the global economy.\n\nIn [their book](http://www.amazon.com/The-Second-Machine-Age-Technologies/dp/0393239357), Brynjolfsson & McAfee argue that we are in the early stages of this process, but that it is already underway and has contributed significantly to income inequality and other difficulties in the labor pool.  It is thus quite possible that the cause of much of the anger and frustration being channeled by the Trump and Sanders campaigns is fundamentally caused by an automation process that is likely just getting started.\n\nHowever, while a significant topic of conversation in tech and some economic circles, and while politicians *love* to talk about jobs, the automation of labor has played little to no role in the presidential election thus far.  Will this continue to be the case?"}
-{"question": "Will Planet Nine be found in 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will this question resolve in the negative?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the FDA approve GMO mosquitos for widespread release?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the London housing market deflate in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in \"select agent\" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will SpaceX's next attempt to land a Falcon 9 rocket on a barge be successful?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A medical pathway to complete painlessness?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "How many Tesla Model 3 orders in 2016?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Bigelow Aerospace's inflatable habitation module inflate, attach to the ISS, and be inhabitable?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Xenon1T experiment discover WIMP dark matter?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will more than 80% of the new US electricity Generation Capacity in 2016 come from solar and wind?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A triumph over the mite-y?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A is in the I of the beholder #1: Wait, is this video for real?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Wikileaks publish the full \"Panama Papers\" in a publicly-accessible and searchable format?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A is in the I of the beholder #3: it's beAIutiful!", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "To the stars! #3: Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system occur by 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers?  Or something else?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA,  by 2021?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Zapping Zika #1: First vaccine trials by January 2017?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Zapping Zika #2: active transmission in the U.S. by August 2016?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Zapping Zika #4: GMO Mosquitos in Puerto Rico?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Zapping Zika #3: 1 million infections in US and its territories by 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1\u00b0 C?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will SpaceX launch for Mars in the 2018 window?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will 2016 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will marijuana be voted legal in California in 2016?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will an independent conservative candidate gain a significant number of votes in the 2016 US Presidential election?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Progress in why the universe is 3+1 dimensional?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the start of 2018?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the National Ignition Facility announce a shot at break-even fusion by start of 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. Senate in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "First human head transplant in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will possible evidence for a new light particle be independently confirmed?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Pandemic series: federal funding of \"gain of function research of concern\" in 2016-18?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Pandemic series: pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will the UK vote for Brexit?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Clinton pick Elizabeth Warren as VP?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Is market volatility set to strongly increase?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the California Drought end in 2017?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the UK submit article 50 notification to the European Union this year?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a personal computer based on \"The Machine\" technology be put to market by end of 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A posteriori statistics and five for seven or better on stock dips?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Transiting exoplanet within 5 parsecs by 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will police officers in the United States shoot and kill more than 1000 people in 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Pound be equal to or less than the Dollar by Dec. 30, 2017.", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part I", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "New Tesla \"Top Secret Master Plan\" revealed this week?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Edward Snowden tweet about Pokemon Go by July 26?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Major contentious CRISPR patent to be overturned?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Airships by 2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "The Galaxy has disappeared from view for a third of humanity; will there be a growing movement to bring it back?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the banana plague reach Latin America?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Clinical trials of a \"universal\" snakebite antidote?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Funding for a study of anti-aging properties of the diabetes drug Metformin?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Zapping Zika #5: Clinical trials of IFITM3-based therapies?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Google release a chatbot in 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": "Author, inventor, and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil is known as a public advocate for [the Singularity](http://www.singularity.com/), predicting that within decades, artificial intelligence will surpass that of human beings. In 2012, Kurzweil was [hired as Google\u2019s Director of Engineering](http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2012/12/14/google-hires-famed-futurist-ray-kurzweil), with a focus on projects involving machine learning and natural language processing.\n\nAt a May 2016 conference held by [Singularity University](http://singularityu.org/), Kurzweil announced that his Google team is working on a chatbot to be released later this year. [One of the bots will be named Danielle](http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/27/11801108/ray-kurzweil-building-chatbot-for-google), after the titular character of Kurzweil\u2019s [yet-to-be-released novel](https://www.playboy.com/articles/playboy-interview-ray-kurzweil). Kurzweil described a chatbot that, given substantial writing samples from a unique user, could be personalized to adopt the writer\u2019s [\u201cstyle, personality, and ideas\u201d](http://www.theverge.com/2016/5/27/11801108/ray-kurzweil-building-chatbot-for-google). The anticipated bots will be able to hold conversations that are [\u201cinteresting,\u201d though not yet near the sophistication of human-to-human communication](http://www.siliconbeat.com/2016/05/31/google-chat-bot-coming-year-renowned-inventor-says/).\n\nThe story broke via a video from the conference posted on technology and culture website [theverge.com](http://www.theverge.com/). The video has since been removed due to copyright restrictions by Singularity University; no official announcement of Kurzweil's project has been made by Google.\n\nKurzweil\u2019s announcement comes at a time of chatbot development among tech giants. The CEO of Microsoft recently declared that chatbots will [revolutionize computing](http://venturebeat.com/2016/07/11/microsoft-ceo-chatbots-will-fundamentally-revolutionize-computing/), although Microsoft suffered an embarrassing setback in March when its Twitter chatbot had to be disabled in less than a day [after learning hate speech from users](http://www.theverge.com/2016/3/24/11297050/tay-microsoft-chatbot-racist). Facebook\u2019s Messenger app features [over 11,000 chatbots for users to converse with](http://venturebeat.com/2016/06/30/facebook-messenger-now-has-11000-chatbots-for-you-to-try/). Earlier this year, Google itself released a [new smart messaging app, Allo](https://research.googleblog.com/2016/05/chat-smarter-with-allo.html), that learns a user\u2019s texting style in order to provide intelligent suggestions for conversations with other humans."}
-{"question": "Will 538 ace the 2016 US presidential electoral map?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "SpaceX's blueprint to Mars presented in late September?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a small Turing machine (< 100 states) be found with behavior that cannot be characterized by mathematical proof?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A merger of Bayer and Monsanto by Q1 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Wikileaks release a significant augmentation to the Equation Group cyberespionage archive?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the DC federal court grant class certification for an ongoing lawsuit against the government for \u201ccharging excessive fees to access court records through PACER\u201d?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "20 more languages extinct by 2021?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will AI automation of jobs be essentially ignored in the US presidential race?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": "Dramatic recent progress in narrow (and arguably general) purpose AI has led to a myriad of practical but nascent technologies including autonomous vehicles, automated call-answering systems, highly automated factories, medical and legal expert systems, and so on. \n\nWhile the automation of repetitive physical labor is an old story, the advent of AI/robotic systems to perform essentially any repetitive physical labor,  as well as many non-repetitive physical tasks *and also* repetitive or non-repetitive *cognitive* tasks, is likely to dramatically change the dynamics governing human labor and its place in the global economy.\n\nIn [their book](http://www.amazon.com/The-Second-Machine-Age-Technologies/dp/0393239357), Brynjolfsson & McAfee argue that we are in the early stages of this process, but that it is already underway and has contributed significantly to income inequality and other difficulties in the labor pool.  It is thus quite possible that the cause of much of the anger and frustration being channeled by the Trump (and previously Sanders) campaign is fundamentally caused by an automation process that is likely just getting started.\n\nHowever, while a significant topic of conversation in tech and some economic circles, and while politicians *love* to talk about jobs, the automation of labor has played little to no role in the presidential election thus far.  Will this continue to be the case?"}
-{"question": "Will Obama pardon Snowden?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "World population forecast to peak before 2100?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "2.5% S&P 500 change on November 9?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Stock market rise correlated with Clinton victory?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Disney own Twitter by the end of Q2 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Metaculus add a meta discussion feature?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the second Clinton-Trump debate move the market in real time?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the German Government bail out Deutsche Bank?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will AI defeat human in the 2017 Angry Birds challenge?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": "[Angry Birds](https://www.angrybirds.com/games/) is a game requiring prediction of the physics-based effects of different-property flying-impaired projectiles on various porcine-sourced structures.  This includes aiming the birds, using their varied properties, and using explosions and other effects.\n\nVideo games comprise an interesting arena for the training and testing of AI and machine learning (ML) systems.  Game-playing AI systems have been steadily advancing both in highly ruled-based (but difficult!) games like Chess and Go, and [videogames in which the AI system is just given the same input and output stream as a human player and must analyze the video](http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v518/n7540/abs/nature14236.html).\n\nFor several years, an [Angry Birds AI competition](https://aibirds.org) has been held to evaluate and encourage game-playing ML systems to play Angry Birds.  In this competition the entrants are provided \"a basic game playing software that includes a computer vision module, a trajectory planning module, and the game interface that works with the Chrome version of Angry Birds.\"\n \nPart of the competition is an [Man vs Machine Challenge](https://aibirds.org/man-vs-machine-challenge/results.html), pitting the best ML systems against highly skilled humans. \n\n In the 2016 competition, the human and AI players competed on four levels over the course of 10 minutes.  Although some AIs completed four levels, none completed all four (some humans did, albeit with difficulty.)  The best human players ended with approximately double the best AI scores.  This is actually a bit *less* good than a followup to the [2015 challenge](https://aibirds.org/man-vs-machine-challenge/previous-results.html) in which an AI came within a factor of 2/3 of the best human scores."}
-{"question": "Will  a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": "Human beings are no longer the best players of the games of Chess or Go, but humans are still fighting the good fight on the poker table. Simple variants of poker have been conquered by the bots, but more complex versions are still being defended.\n\nTexas HoldEm is the most popular form of poker, and its simplest variant (Heads-up Limit HoldEm) is widely believed to have been solved, with poker programs consistently outperforming human players. This variant is simple in two ways: \"Heads-up\" means that there are only two players at the table, and \"Limit\" means that bets and raises can only be made in fixed amounts, with a limited number of reraises.\n\nThe least restricted version of HoldEm is multi-player No Limit Holdem, where there are multiple players at a table, and bets/reraises can range freely between a minimum amount and the entire amount of a player's chips. To date in 2016, [humans have eked out narrow victories in Heads-up No Limit Holdem](http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2015/04/25/Brains-vs-AI-Computer-faces-poker-pros-in-no-limit-Texas-Holdem/6431429965877/ ), and no computer program has as yet made a serious showing in a multi-player No Limit HoldEm challenge.\n\nThis dominance of the felt by humans is no doubt temporary, and victory by the machines is inevitable. When will humans be forced to acknowledge not only that they are descended from fish, but that fish they remain (as far as silicon-based sharks are concerned)?"}
-{"question": "Artificial pancreas goes mainstream in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the US election be decided by Nov. 11?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will there be any faithless electors in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Planet Nine Emerge from Hiding Soon?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will there be a financial crisis in China in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "How important are \"time crystals\"?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "New ultrasound Alzheimer's treatment to clinical trial in humans by end of 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Solid metallic hydrogen: how much impact?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Solid metallic hydrogen: will it superconduct at room temperature?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Italian constitutional referendum pass?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Hofer for president in Austria on 4 December?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States on January 1, 2018?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": "Donald J. Trump is the President-Elect of the U.S., making it extremely likely that he will assume the Presidential office in January 2017.\n\nIn addition to the usual mortal risks that might prevent a president from serving the second year of his term, the likelihood of either resignation or impeachment seem somewhat higher in Trump's case than for some previous Presidents-Elect. By some accounts he spent part of his campaign not believing that he would get the job, and may find it not to his liking. He also has legal cases pending, and due to his public-sector inexperience may be comparatively unaware of the the borderline between traditional exercise of presidential power and impeachable offenses."}
-{"question": "More attention to potential evidence for a fifth fundamental force?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Is Arnold alive?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "More \"Live(s) you can save\" in 2016?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the \"Project Blue\" campaign to kick-start a planet-imaging camera of Alpha Centauri reach its goal on Kickstarter?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will recounts appreciably change US presidential vote count?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will 2017 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will there be an attack on the electrical grid for a major U.S. city in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem by April 1, 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Evidence for deviations from canonical black holes from LIGO?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A complete buyout of Pebble by Fitbit by end of year?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "At last? Clinical trials of a vaccine for the common cold?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Image projection patent implemented in the new Nintendo Switch?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Amazon award a $1M \"Alexa Prize\" for a chatbot in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": "Amazon has recently launched an [\"Alexa Prize\" competition](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize) toward developing an effective \"Socialbot\" that can \"[Engage] customers in a conversation about popular topics such as Entertainment, Fashion, Politics, Sports, and Technology.\"\n\nTwelve sponsored university teams and some number of additional teams will compete from April until November 2017, using Amazon employees, users, and judges to narrow down to finalists in August, then have a final competition with a 3-judge panel in November.\n\nThe best team will win $500K, and there is an additional $1M prize if \"their socialbot achieves the grand challenge of conversing coherently and engagingly with humans on popular topics for 20 minutes.\"\n\nAs specified in the [FAQ](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize/faq), this is *not* a Turing test \u2013 the winning bot may be readily distinguishable from a human.  It should, however, be \"human like\" in its ability to converse.  Details of the judging procedure are in the [official rules](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize/contest-rules).  In brief, each judge has a \"red button\" they can press when feel that as a user they would no longer enjoy talking to the bot."}
-{"question": "Seeing single photons: more research to come?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Vacuum birefringence probably found near neutron stars: more research to come?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A resurgence in interest in modified gravity vs. dark matter?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "How will recent claims of 234 SETI signals in SDSS data be treated by the community?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will 2017 be an up year from the US Stock Market?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Affordable Care Act be repealed before March 1, 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the European Parliament pass rules granting AI personhood, among other provisions?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Higher US housing prices in 2017?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Article 50 triggered by UK by end of March 2017?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Marine le Pen win the French presidential Election ?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will there be a Game of Thrones episode airing in 2017, in which Jon Snow bends the knee to Daenerys Targaryen?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Any charges by end of 2017 by FBI's investigation of Russia-Trump campaign ties?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Giant robot battle: is it on?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "LISA chosen by ESA to move forward?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Is the giant rotting sea thing just a whale?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "OK, fine, can FIVE human Go masters defeat AlphaGo?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the UK elections lead to an absolute majority for one party in parliament?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will \"Rentberry\" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Trump (try to) fire Mueller?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A jump in market volatility over the coming month?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Paul Manafort be charged with a crime by Halloween?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Michael Flynn be charged with a crime by Veteran's day?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for \"russia\" by 2019?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Clear skies during totality at the Grand Tetons?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the UN host a meeting in November to continue discussions regarding lethal autonomous weapons?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": "Kinetic lethal autonomous offensive weapons systems (KLAOWS) are a potential new stage in global armaments and warfare, as well as a new potential weapon of mass destruction.  \n\nMany current weapons systems, such as military drones, are moving toward autonomy, and autonomous [\"swarms\" of aircraft have been tested.](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38569027)  Meanwhile non-military drone technology continues with highly capable drones potentially equipped with facial recognition (and potentially [armable](http://www.newsweek.com/isis-using-drones-rigged-munitions-attack-advancing-forces-raqqa-628955)) and other narrow AI capabilities becoming cheaper and more effective.  \n\nThere is significant concern about an arms race in these weapons developing.  An [open letter](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/) coordinated by the Future of Life Institute and signed by > 3000 AI/ML researchers and 17,000 others argues that\n\n>  If any major military power pushes ahead with AI weapon development, a global arms race is virtually inevitable, and the endpoint of this technological trajectory is obvious: autonomous weapons will become the Kalashnikovs of tomorrow. Unlike nuclear weapons, they require no costly or hard-to-obtain raw materials, so they will become ubiquitous and cheap for all significant military powers to mass-produce. It will only be a matter of time until they appear on the black market and in the hands of terrorists, dictators wishing to better control their populace, warlords wishing to perpetrate ethnic cleansing, etc. Autonomous weapons are ideal for tasks such as assassinations, destabilizing nations, subduing populations and selectively killing a particular ethnic group.\n\nInternational negotiations to potentially limit KLAOWS are underway but dragging.  A formal UN discussions scheduled for late August were [cancelled due to technicalities.](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/2017/05/diplomatsfalter/)\nOn August 20, an [open letter](https://futureoflife.org/autonomous-weapons-open-letter-2017) was released signed by a large number of robotics and AI company CEOs and others encouraging the UN to continue negotiations toward limiting use of KLAOWS.\n\nA meeting is currently targeted for November 2017."}
-{"question": "Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "LIGO announcement of a neutron star merger in NGC 4993?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the upcoming \"Last Jedi\" augmented reality game be a success?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Bitcoin and Ethereum be the two highest market-cap cryptocurrencies for all of November 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Another ICO-related SEC alert published in November 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Ethereum hit 75% of Bitcoin's market cap during November 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A downturn in the cryptocurrency market as a whole?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Another significant cryptocurrency split during November 2017?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Bitcoin Cash fade into oblivion?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "More stories in the NY times about SEC regulation of initial coin offerings?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A major \"theft\" of cryptocurrency in November 2017?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Passing the torch: Will a Bitcoin's dollar value exceed the Nasdaq Index value?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Chinese Crypto-shutdown?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Short-term increase in Market Volatility?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a country other than China shut down a cryptocurrency exchange by Dec. 1?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Uber be operating in London on Dec. 1?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Trump go two more months without uttering the words \"Bitcoin\" or \"Cryptocurrency\"?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Trump finish the year without mentioning the phrase \"Artificial Intelligence\"?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": "There are a number of technologies that may fundamentally rework society over the next few decades that are, nonetheless, having almost little to no attention paid to them by US policymakers.  \n\nOne of them is almost certainly Artificial Intelligence.  As of question launch, a search of Trump's [speech transcripts](https://transcripts.factcheck.org) at FactCheck.org shows no mention of \"Artificial Intelligence.\""}
-{"question": "A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the US take military action in N. Korea?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will another significant website be outed for on-the-sly in-browser cryptocoin mining By Nov. 15?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "2017 Physics Nobel Prize in Physics for Gravitational Waves?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A major United States earthquake by 2023?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will (some of) China's space station land on land?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Amazon to accept, or set a date to accept, Bitcoin payment by Dec. 1?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Passing the torch part 2: Will a Bitcoin's dollar value exceed the Dow Jones Industrial Index value?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Metaculus predictions be within 5% of the community prediction for this question?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Amazon choose either Austin or Boston for its HQ2?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Another NYT News Story about U.F.O.s this Year?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A NYT article this year that discusses aliens as a possible explanation for an astronomical phenomenon?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the first SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy launch succeed?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will this flu season be worse than the 2014 - 2015 season?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will there be a Metaculus ICO this year?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Rosenstein still be the top official in charge of the Trump/Russia/Mueller investigation on April 1, 2018?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Attempted crewed  SpaceX flight in 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "A Trillion Dollar company by the end of 2018?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Bitcoin's energy consumption double again?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the SEC release new rules governing ICOs by October 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will India land on the Moon by August 1, 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": "A [2014 paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2758222) by Shawn Bayern suggested the possibility that an algorithm, rather than a person, could apparently legally manage a US LLC.  From that paper:\n\n> As a result, autonomous systems may end up being able, at least, to emulate many of the private-law rights of legal persons. This essay demonstrates a technique by which this is possible by means of limited liability companies (LLCs), a very flexible modern type of business organizations.\n\nA more [recent paper appearing on SSRN](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2954173) agrees with this argument, and suggest that the law may also allow non-human (i.e. algorithmic) ownership of some other corporate structures.  It also argues that this could be majorly problematic in various ways."}
-{"question": "By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will NASA\u2019s WFIRST still be funded as of the 2018 mid-term elections?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will quantum computing \"supremacy\u201d be achieved by 2025?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a question of unknown nature resolve positive?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the ICO industry still be growing in May 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will KIC 9832227 go \"red nova\" \u2013 observable to the naked eye on Earth \u2013 by 2024?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Magnus Carlsen retain his title of world chess champion this November?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in 2018?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Trump and Kim Jong Un actually meet?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Temer's Social Security Reform be approved?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan experience a significant leadership disruption by 31 August 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Mark Zuckerberg appear before congress prior to April 17?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will there be a locally-transmitted case of the Zika virus in Singapore between 1 April 2018 and 31 May 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will Doug Ford be elected Premier of Ontario?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will May Day protests turn violent?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?", "possibilities": 0.0, "label": "no", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}
-{"question": "Is Westworld located on an island?", "possibilities": 1.0, "label": "yes", "description": ""}