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Speculators Hoping For 1969 Price Rise: Speculators Drain Gold Pool in Expectation of '69 Price Rise. LONDON—There is a story in Europe about the head of a big Swiss bank who bet a member of the Federal Reserve Board in 1959 that the United States would raise the price of gold from $35 an ounce within three years.</br></br>It was touchy for a while. In I960, the free market price hit $40 largely because of uncertainties over John F. Kennedy’s intentions as President.</br></br>But the crisis led to the formation of the international gold pool, which has successfully held down the price with the breath-takingly simple tactic of selling' unlimited gold supplies from the reserves of pool members to all comers. Presumably, the Swiss banker paid off.</br></br>Many Europeans now believe he made his bet 10 years too soon. There is the wi despread belief here that, despite United States denials, once the November election is out of the way, Washington will plan some change.</br></br>In the last 10 days, the hopes of speculators and the fears of hoarding have taken the tangible form of an outlay unofficially estimated at more than $300-million. Buyers are said to have drained roughly this much gold from world reserves by purchases on the London gold market.

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Producer Price Index Dipped in February As Retail Sales Rose: February Producer Prices Down; Retail Sales Up. WASHINGTON, March II — In a I pair of largely reassuring reports on, tlit; economy, the Government said today that prices at the producer level declined in February while retail sales continued to show scarcely any adverse effect from last fall's stock market plunge.</br></br>The latest figures — a drop of two-tenths of 1 percent in producer prices and a rise of six-tenths of 1 percent in retail sales — did much to allay fears that had been raised last week by a report of a near-record surge in payroll jobs. That report stirred worries that the economy might have begun to expand at an unsustainably rapid pace.</br></br>"This set ol figures exerted a tempering influence,” said Robert Chan-dros, chief economist for the Lloyds Hank in New York. “The consumer is still behaving in a fairly restrained manner."</br></br>To most analysts, today's reports pointed to a further modest expansion in the economy, with inflation remaining in check.</br></br>Stuart G. Hoffman, chief economist til the Pittsburgh National Bank, noted thiit the prices at the producer level were now no higher than they had been in July. “Thai’s pretty encouraging,” he said.

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Does M-1 Deserve All That Attention?. The weekly reports on the nation's basic money supply fuel the growing struggle between Arthur F. Burns and the President.</br></br>The weekly reports from the Federal Reserve Board on the nation's basic money supply—M-l, as it is known— have generally not stirred great Interest beyond the business and financial community. But in recent months, M-l has begun earning headlines as a central factor in the mounting disagreement between President Carter and Arthur P, Burns, chairman of the Fed.</br></br>At issue is nothing less than the strength of the nation’s economic recovery. The Fed, responding to con* cem over growth in M-l, allowed short* term interest rates to rise. The White House expressed concern that higher interest rates would dampen an already sputtering recovery and issued a “warning.” Last Monday the Fed was again allowing interest rates to rise, though this time because of technical problems (see markets column, page 18), sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging by more than 11 points.</br></br>As an economic indicator, the M-l has limitations of which only the experts are aware. The phenomenon that it is supposed to measure cannot be measured accurately. The weekly re. ports that set Wall Street spinning are only estimates that may subsequently be revised, sometimes enough to alter the perception of the M-l’s behavior. The implications of its movements for the future of the economy are subject to sharply differing interpretations. Such considerations raise questions as to whether the M-l deserves all the attention it is receiving.</br></br>The M-l is but one of a number of monetary aggregates, M-2, M-3 and so forth, that purport to measure the deposits and currency owned by American families and business (other than banks). It is the narrowest of such aggregates, hence the name M-l, including only means of payments—that is, currency in circulation and checking deposits. The concept is thus a simple one.

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EXPERTS PONDER WAGES FORMULA: Kennedy's Proposal on Link to Productivity Criticized Rees Raises Question Worthington Stand. CHICAGO, March 17— The Administration’s formula for linking any wage increases to productivity was subjected to searching analysis here this week. J</br></br>The formula is being pressed upon the steel negotiators ir Pittsburgh, and, in a statement relayed here, Secretary of Labor Arthur J. Goldberg has reiterated his faith in it.</br></br>The basic idea is that wage increases should be held to the national rate of increase in productivity, considered in Pittsburgh to be 3 per cent.</br></br>Worthington, Unit-' Steel Corporation president, mentioned it in a speech; William G. Caples, vice president for industrial relations of the Inland Steel Company",* made another speech : touching on it, and it was a main topic at a national conference sponsored by the American Statistical Association, to the University of Chicago Eco-1 wage restraint is needed to keep1 nomics Department contended American industrial costs down that the formula, as explained1 and thus to increase exports in the January report of the and present continued; outflow President’s Council of Economic; of gold. He suggested that this Advisers, made it clear that the problem be 'attacked at its council had the steel situation source with, for example, a new in mind. ! gold policy.</br></br>But, he said, the Government Dr. John Kendrick of George had set formulas in steel wage Washington University, a lead-negotiations since the end of ing authority, defined produc-World War II. He said that any tivity as the -.“ratio of output attempt to apply a formula for to any or all of the inputs em-a dispersed industry such as ployed in production.” In an interview, he explained that pro-— ductivity was neither physical Rees Raises Question production nor profits after

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The Arts Feeling Economic Squeeze: Arts Institutions Feel Economic Squeeze. The arts, which in recent years have been grappling with inflation, are now threatened by the slowed economy and the precipitous fall in the stock market.</br></br>For orchestras, operas, dance companies, theaters, museums, cultural centers and other institutions, the impact has been frightening. At some institutions fear for survival has intensified. Others, including the most prestigious and secure, worry that services will have to be curtailed.</br></br>Heads of arts Institutions and expert observers believe that the flftll impact of inflation, the slowed economy and the drop in stock prices will not be felt until later In the year when new fundraising campaigns begin. Hut there are enough signs <JSome arts institutions that had planned extensive fund-raising campaigns have postponed them indefinitely.</br></br>«IPeopIe who have made generous pledges to arts institutions have asked to delay payments because the worth of securities, which they plan to use for such payments, has depreciated drastically.</br></br>announced reductions in profits, and contributions to the arts in a few instances are beginning to be cut.

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RUMSFELD ORDERS BEEF PRICE WATCH: Directs Tax Men to Check Meat in Chain Stores. ! WASHINGTON, Sept. 7 (AP) —The Cost of Living Council ordered today a Close watch on retail meat prices in chain food stores and urged the Price Commission to consider tighter moves to bring retail prices down faster after wholesale prices decline.</br></br>Donald Rumsfeld, director of the council, disclosed that he sent a telegram yesterday to the largest food retailers in the nation telling them that retail beef prices were still too high. He said that he had ordered the Internal Revenue Service to monitor about 100 of the larger food chains.</br></br>the gap in August between thej ] carcass price of beef and the retail price was about 37 cents! a pound as against 28.4 cents in August a year ago. | "There is no precedent for the: current gap between wholesale j beef price levels and the prices' being charged by much of the retail food industry,” he said. “Retail beef prices must be reduced.”</br></br>In a memorandum to the chairman of the Price Commission, Jackson Grayson Jr., Mr. Rumsfeld said that some food chains might be in violation of existing price regulations, but he added that it appeared that “high mark-ups could be justified under the current retail regulations.”</br></br>| “As a result, rather than having to reduce their prices las the wholesale price drops, they are able to maintain artificially high retail beef prices longer than would otherwise be the case," he added. He asked Mr. Grayson to consider possible changes so that the retail price level would drop more quickly after a decline at the wholesale level. He said that all options should avoid penalizing stores that had cooperated in reducing prices as wholesale prices declined.

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Price Rises Planned: Many Businessmen Are Planning to Raise Prices After Freeze. | Businessmen across the nation declared last week that President Nixon’s economc stabilization program had been little more than a temporary holding action against inflation, and had failed to eliminate inflationary psychology;</br></br>Most of the executives, surveyed during the waning days of Phase One, asserted that they planned to raise their prices as soon as the fre.eze was lifted, and many of them said they expected their suppliers' to do the same.</br></br>Some said employe morale had suffered because the wage freeze seemed to be more rigidly enforced than the price freeze on consumer products.</br></br>The consensus among businessmen interviewed seemed to be that business profits had been hurt slightly, although sales levels were about normal.</br></br>“At first, Phase One gave the people some hope,” said Frank F. Smith, president of the American Flag & Banner Company, in .Chicago. "But now that things have settled down,

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STOCK TURNOVER SOARS TO RECORD: Hanoi's Proposal Spurs Trading to Total of 19.29 Million Shares -- Price Rise Ebbs but Dow Index Is Up 5.15 STOCK TURNOVER SOARS TO RECORD. RESULTS: The broad tape being followed at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc. Stock market tape, 47 minutes behind at mid-session, caught up shortly before close.</br></br>Hanoi’s Proposal Spurs Trading to Total of 19.29 Million Shares—Price Rise Ebbs but Dow Index Is Up 5.15</br></br>North Vietnam’s proposal to discuss with the United States the possibility of a total halt in bombing raids triggered a new explosion of trading activity in the stock market yesterday.</br></br>Volume on the New York Stock Exchange boiled to a new high of 19.29 million shares, topping the previous record of 17.73 million shares set on Monday. The market rallied strongly Monday in response to President Johnson’s disclosure that the United States would de-escalate its military activities in Vietnam.</br></br>Yesterday prices rose sharply in early trading, then lost a large part of their gains in slower activity later in the session. The Dow-Jones industrial average was up 13.12 points at the height of the frantic trading rush during the morning but closed with a gain of 5.15 points, at 869.11.

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ECONOMIC SCENE REMAINS BRIGHT: Despite Quickening in Pace, Federal Reserve Finds Industrial Stability OUTPUT RISE A FACTOR No Early Danger Is Seen of Production Pressing Limits of Capacity ECONOMIC SCENE REMAINS BRIGHT. despite the quickening of the boom, the economy is probably j in no early danger of pressing. limits of plant capacity or la-bor supply. *Js</br></br>The staff has made available confidential report to_ the Federal Reserve Board and the Open Market Committee — an unusual but not surprising procedure. The report covers the general economic situation bank credit and the balance of payments.</br></br>The key question confronting policy makers has been whether rising output would begin to press upon capacity, with the resulting danger of ris“| prices. 5</br></br>On the size of labor capacity, the report concludes "on balance it appears that, while some skilled labor shortages may develop, the labor supply further significant gains in output or to threaten the impressive record of stability in unit-abor costs that has been maintained over the past several years of rising productivity</br></br>creases!”^ moderate waSe *-The report pictured the plant capacity situation as more complex, but it found that in nearly all major lines there was still room to expand output, especially in light of the prospect of about a 5 per cent yea^aSe ™ caPacity this Ir* AP,riI. the report said, capacity utilization for major materials was up to 86 per cent compared with 83 per cent in. the first quarter and 79 per cent' a year earlier. The rise this' year was accounted for in ma- • jor part by steel, which is now operating at nearly 80 per cent of capacity.

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Conflict on Economic Goals Intensifies: ECONOMIC GOALS: CONFLICT WIDENS. In his television broadcast this week President Nixon predicted that, as a result of the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies he intends to pursue in 1971, unemployment would be reduced and “inflation will continue to come down." is going to be a year and a half from now, of course, would be completely irresponsible.” Nor did he venture a prediction of the future rate of inflation.</br></br>It remains to be seen what sort of numbers his Council of Economic Advisers will come up with in their Economic Report to the President later this month.</br></br>There are good reasons for the President and his economic advisers to be cautious on how soon they expect to be able to reconcile full employment with price stability.</br></br>This conflict between economic goals—a serious problem in all industrialized countries— appears to be getting even more so in the United States. In a new analysis for the Brookings Institution, George L. Perry has concluded that the trade-off between unemployment and inflation—the so-called Phillips I curve—has shifted upward.</br></br>over-all unemployment rate today is linked with tighter labor markets, higher wage settlements and more price lifting than 10 or 20 years ago.

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Budget Outlook Called Brighter: Congressional Agency Calls Budget Outlook Brighter. WASHINGTON, Aug. 19 — Reflecting unexpectedly robust economic growth, the Congressional Budget Office announced today that it had revised sharply downward its projection for the budget deficit in the 1989 fiscal year.</br></br>The revision reduces chances that budget cuts, mandated by balanced-budget legislation, will be automatically imposed just before the Presidential election. The fiscal year begins on Oct. 1.</br></br>The latest C.B.O. estimate projects the 1989 fiscal year deficit at $148 billion, an improvement from the $177 billion shortfall projected last February.</br></br>The Congressional agency, which has an important advisory role in the budgetary process, also projected today that economic growth would continue at least through next year. But it warned about a possible surge in inflation accompanied by more restrictive Federal Reserve monetary policies intended to control price increases. That, the agency said, would “risk unintentionally going too far and causing a recession."</br></br>In anticipating further expansion and smaller deficits, the report is likely to bolster Vice President Bush's campaign for the Presidency. A crucial theme of that campaign urges continuation of the economic policies of the last eight years.

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MARKET CLIMBS IN HEAVY VOLUME: Trading Hits 20.65 Million as Big Board Posts Its 14th Gain in Last 16 Sessions DOW AVERAGE RISES 9.31 Winners Outpace Losers by Better Than 2-to-1 Ratio -- Computer Issues Strong MARKET CLIMBS IN HEAVY VOLUME. The recent euphoria experienced by stock market investors continued in a big way yesterday as winners outpaced losers on the New York Stock Exchange by a ratio of better than 2-to-l.</br></br>With volume still heavy-even after setting a record last .week of 100.0 million shares— and newspapers and market letters expressing renewed enthusiasm over the prospects for 1971, the list scored impressive gains in both the blue-chip and glamour categories.</br></br>the day, 877.81, marking a 9.31-point gain, the 14th advance in the last 16 days and the highest point since the 883.2) close on July 7, 1969. Similarly the New York Times combined average of 50 stocks rose 4.62 points to 509.89.</br></br>| Turnover yesterday remained 'at a sizzling pace, renewing concern in certain Wall Street quarters about a renewal of the 1969 back-office crisis. By the time the last trade was recorded on the tape, three minutes after the bell sounded, 20.65 million shares changed hands—just a hair s breadth below the 20.96-million-share volume last Friday.</br></br>Some of the advance was attributed by analysts to the Federal Government’s stimulation of the economy anticipated in President Nixon’s economic message that was sent to Congress at noon. Mr. Nixon forecast a real growth in physical output this year of 4.5 to 5 per cent, which included the assumption that real growth would increase about 7.5 per cent between 1970’s fourth quarter and the corresponding period of 1971.

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Boom or Recession?: Stock Market Prices Often Forecast Economic Shape of Things to Come Boom or Recession?. The stock market has predicted none of the last four recessions. This observation, attributed variously to Paul Samuelson and Walter Heller, attests to the low regard some economists hold for the stock market as an economic indicator.</br></br>Nevertheless, the prestigious National Bureau of Economic Research, the official scorekeeper of booms and recessions, lists stock prices among a select group of indicators that reach peaks or troughs in advance of business generally.</br></br>While these so-called leading indicators often give false signals, their performance over-all is sufficiently reliable to make them an important working tool of the trade.</br></br>how much logic is there to a sharp movement of prices like the one last week that followed President Johnson’s decision to undertake negotiations with North Vietnam?</br></br>On Monday, the day after the President’s announcement, the Dow-Jones average of 30 industrial issues rose 20.58 points on record turnover of 17,730,000 shares.

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Consumer Credit Rose to Record Of $20,979,000,000 in August: CONSUMER CREDIT AT RECORD LEVEL Factory Employment Rises. WASHINGTON, Oct. 2 — Consumer credit set a record in August, when it reached $20,979,000,-000, according to the Federal Reserve Board.</br></br>015,000,000 of the total. The installment debt also stood at a new high level as a result of the rush to buy goods that consumers felt might be hit by the demands of the present defense production economy.</br></br>Consumer credit rose by $614,-000,000 in August after the sharp rise of $660,000,000 registered in July. Installment credit increased by $411,000,000 in August compared with July’s $500,000,000 rise.</br></br>Last Sept. 18 the board imposed controls upon installment purchases, requiring that buyers of automobiles, for instance, pay a minimum of one-third of the purchase price down and complete within twenty - one months. On major appliances the down payment requirements were made 15 per cent with eighteen months in which to complete payments.</br></br>Indications are that last month’s credit and installment-plan purchases were even larger than the record-breaking August total. According to reports reaching the board from various parts of the country, the curbs upon installment credit were having little effect upon purchasing. As a result, tightening of the regulation is in prospect.

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At Labor, No. 2's Importance Waxes. WASHINGTON, Jan. 14 — Early this week a group of top Labor Department officials gathered to address a question from Craig Fuller, President Reagan’s assistant for Cabinet affairs: With unemployment now at 8.9 percent, what should the Government do?</br></br>The meeting went without general notice, just one of dozens of high-level conferences being conducted that day in the marble and concrete Federal buildings here. But hours later, when some of the participants paused to reflect on the gathering, they realized that it had been particularly revealing.</br></br>It was, they recalled, Malcolm R. Lovell Jr., the Under Secretary of Labor, who had dominated the session and provoked the most discussion. He raised the question of extending unemployment benefits beyond the current 39 weeks. He asked whether the employment service program, which uses computers to compile a nationwide inventory of job openings, should be revitalized.</br></br>Mr. Lovell, the second-ranking official in the Labor Department, has become an increasingly important figure on the Washington scene. Officials both inside the department and in high labor positions say that, with Labor Secretary Raymond J. Donovan now the subject of a special prosecutor’s investigation into charges of corruption, Mr. Lovell is more and more playing the leading role in the department.</br></br>“He’s running the department,” said one top labor official, speaking on the condition that he not be identified.

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SOFT COAL MINING IN SHARP DECLINE: Affected by Drop in Exports, Rise in Oil Imports, Mild Winter and Labor Costs. WASHINGTON, April 4 (UP)— The soft coal industry, which is in the midst of a “severe recession," had been hit harder by the new developments in Korea, an industry leader reported today.</br></br>Joseph E. Moody, president of the Sbuthem Coal Producers’ Association, said coal-using industries had begun digging into the 80,000,-000-ton stockpile of bituminous coal in anticipation of a production cutback if, and when, the Korean war ends. As a result, he added, orders for new coSl are dropping</br></br>Soft coal production now is more than 20 per cent below the level of last year, which was considered a poor year. The latest Bureau of Mines figures put production through March 21 at 8,120,000 tons compared with 9,521,000 tons at the same point in 1952.</br></br>Mr. Moody said in an interview that the industry was in a “desperate situation" and predicted the year’s total production could fall below 400,000,000 tons for the first time since 1939. Production in 1952 was 465,000,000 tons.</br></br>More mines are closing down operations this year. Three Illinois mines shut recently, including the Chicago, Wilmington and Franklin Coal Corporation mine. Orient One, employing 740 miners.

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Why Analysts Keep Telling Investors to Buy. Even now, with the recession deepening and markets on edge, Wall Street analysts say it is a good time to buy..</br></br>At the top of the market, they urged investors to buy or hold onto stocks about 95 percent of the time. .When stocks stumbled, they stayed optimistic. Even in November, when credit froze, the economy stalled and financial markets tumbled to their lowest levels in a decade, analysts as a group rarely said sell.</br></br>And last month, as the Dow and ■Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index suffered their worst January ever, analysts put a sell rating on a mere 5.9 percent of stocks, according to Bloomberg data. Many companies have taken such a beating in the downturn, analysts argue, that their shares are bound to bounce back.</br></br>Maybe. But after so many.bad calls on so many companies, why should investors believe them this time?</br></br>When Internet stocks imploded in 2000 and 2001, Wall Street analysts were widely scorned for fanning a frenzy that had' inflated dot-com shares to unsustainable heights. But this time around, credit rating agencies, mortgage companies and Wall Street bankers have shouldered much of the biame for the Crash of 2008, and few have publicly questioned the analysts who urged investors to buy all the way down.

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Personal Finance: Tax-Exempt Bonds: Personal Finance: Tax-Exempt Bonds. Anyone who has borrowed —or tried to borrow—money lately has a right to cry about high interest rates.</br></br>Now, with the prime rate raised to the record level of 7 per cent, consumers probably will find that lending rates for them will soon be moving up, too.</br></br>The picture isn’t one-sided, however. If businessmen and consumers who borrow money have to pay more, lenders and investors should receive more.</br></br>Municipal bond rates are now at historic highs. Although few market analysts want to predict how the market will move, some bond dealers seem confident.</br></br>thal, of Lebenthal & Co., Inc., said yesterday. “Yields are at their highest level in about 35 years.” "No question about It,” said John C. Senholzi, vice resident of the Chase Man-attan Bank, "bond rates are at an all-time high.” He declined to be drawn Into conjecture about the market’s outlook.

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LOAN RATES CUT FOR CONSUMERS: Reduction by Major 'Retail' Commercial Banks Here Follows Earlier Actions LOAN RATES CUT FOR CONSUMERS. Interest rates on consumer loans were reduced yesterday by most of the major "retail" commercial banks in the New York metropolitan area. The reductions ranged between one-half per cent and one percentage point at an annual rate, depending on the type of loan and its maturity.</br></br>By the end of the day, the only significant holdout from the rate reductions, which followed similar moves by the Chase Manhattan Bank last month and the Chemical Bank earlier this week, was the Marine Midland Bank-New York.</br></br>But _ this institution caters primarily to corporations, and thus does not have a major po-sition in the consumer-loan imarket.</br></br>, At the same time, the cut :jn the prime rate on business loans to 6*4 per cent from 6% per cent, which was kicked off by the First Pennsylvania Banking and Trust Company on Monday and the Chemical Bank on^Wednesday, spread throughout the banking system.</br></br>Bank of America, the nation’s largest bank, delayed the announcement of its reduction until the end of the business day and then issued a statement indicating its belief that the downward course of money rates has now been substantially completed.”

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Two Pioneer Programs Help Unwed Teen-Age Fathers Cope. LOS ANGELES—This year, 600,000 teen-age boys will become unwed fathers. Until recently, they were ignored by social agencies and parents busy ooplng with the problems of unwed teen-age girls, who face a bleak future of unemployment and overwhelming responsibilities for child rearing.</br></br>Now, however, two pioneering social agencies in Southern California are counseling boys as well as girls because they have found that both partners in an out-of-wedlock pregnancy suffer guilt and anxiety that can lead to serious psychological problems if unresolved. The agencies also have discovered that involving the boy in the decision to keep or place the baby for adoption relieved the girl’s guilt and makes her adjustment much easier.</br></br>"In the past, society ignored the unwed teen-age father because it assumed that he was just sowing wild oats and didn’t care about the girl or their baby,” said Chuck Wilkersons. He is a social worker who has counceled unwed teen-age fathers for the past two years at the Children’s Home Society of Orange County, a private, non-sectarian child welfare organization. "The boy was encouraged to run away from his responsibilities because an out-of-wedlock pregnancy was assumed to be the girl’s problem,” he said.</br></br>Less than 5 percent of the unwed fathers who participate in the counseling programs at the Children’s Home Society come without being invited by the social workers. In most cases, the girl comes alone or with her parents for the first session. Many of the girls find out about the counseling programs through their friends, schools or the yellow pages.</br></br>“Initially, the girl and her family resist any effort to involve the boy in the counseling sessions because they feel that the boy is no good and has done enough damage,” said Mr. Wilker-son. "We point out to them that two of them were involved in the pregnancy and two of them should be involved in its resolution.”

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INVESTORS REACT ON MONEY SUPPLY: M-1 Surge Means Analysts See No More Fed Easing, So Bond Prices Slump INVESTORS REACT ON MONEY SUPPLY. S2.6 billion increase in the nation's basic money supply reported by the Federal Reserve last Thursday afternoon. Prices turned lower later</br></br>Alarketi curities market and took a further drubbing last Friday, with declines ranging from a quarter to a full point.</br></br>Participants in the credit markets had been expecting an upturn in the basic money supply (which is known as M-l and consists of currency and demand deposits) of perhaps $1 billion for the week ended July 7. When the $2.6 billion increase was announced, along with an increase of $3.9 billion in M-2 (which includes M-l plus time deposits except large certificates of deposit), a widespread advance in Government and corporate bond prices came to a halt.</br></br>The size of the latest increase in M-l was viewed by one observer of the credit markets as evidence that “there is no room for further ease” as far as Federal Reserve monetary policy was concerned.</br></br>A Sluggish Month The money supply performed sluggishly last month. As July began, the Federal Reserve appeared to respond to this sluggishness with a slight easing of the credit reins. As evidence of this, it was noted that the Fed seemed to be lowering its target objective for the rate on Federal funds—the rate banks pay to borrow excess reserves from one another—from 5l/2 percent to 51/, percent.

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Slowdown Is Raising Questions: Does Economy Face A Lull or Recession? Slowdown Is Raising Questions. After 15 months of robust growth, the American economy is beginning to slow. But no one can know yet from the scant emerging evidence whether the slowdown will turn out to be only a lull — followed by another stretch of strong growth — or the beginning of a slide toward much slower economic growth, if not recession.</br></br>Auto sales and home construction, the two pillars of growth, remain mostly intact. But once built, the new homes now sell less quickly. Many retailers find they must offer bigger discounts to keep people buying. Manufacturers say that while they are still very busy, new orders are not as numerous. And last month, for the first time since 1992, the unemployment rate rose.</br></br>“I am hearing in the past two months comments that I had not heard before, comments that new orders are flat or slowing,” said Ralph Kaufman of the National Association of Purchasing Managers, which conducts a monthly survey of its members, who are all in manufacturing. “Some of the managers feel that the higher interest rates are starting to take hold."</br></br>Yet the hard data is far from conclusive. “It is mostly straws In the wind, a sense things are not going as well as they had been,” said Robert D. Reischauer, director of the Congressional Budget Office.</br></br>No straw seems more noticeable than the stockpiles of merchandise and materials piling up at stores and warehouses. Virtually every forecaster expects stockpiling to be less robust this year than last, helping to slow the economy. The slowdown could turn into a recession in the unlikely event merchants decided, more or less simultaneously, that they had stockpiled much more than they could sell. After all, their inventories in the last quarter reached three times standard levels — and a reluctance to order more goods would have a ripple effect.

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Prices of Bonds Rise Briskly: Prices of Bonds Take a Brisk Rise. The credit markets, which faltered just a bit yesterday morning after their six-day advance, sprang back to life after the Federal Reserve reported a surprising $3 billion decline in the money supply. Bond prices surged Credit and closed at their</br></br>Markets highest levels of the day as traders reached the quick assessment that the Fed must maintain an accomodative credit policy if it is to reach its money supply growth targets.</br></br>Earlier, the Fed had come into the money market to buy Treasury bills for its own account to help offset drains of reserves from the banking system that occur at this time of year.</br></br>According to a Fed spokesman yesterday afternoon; drains caused by money flowing from corporate checking accounts into Treasury balances of Federal Reserve banks will average more than $4 billion a day during the week ending next Wednesday.</br></br>On Wednesday, the Fed bought coupon-bearing Treasury securities to begin this process of providing bank reserves, and it followed up itsi action yesterday with bill pur-

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Calm Trading for Second Day: Rates Dip, But Slightly. i In the second consecutive day of 1 desultory trading, interest rates were ! little changed for short or long ma-i turitles.</br></br>I Prices of Treasury notes and bonds had recovered from the modest declines early in the day, and ended the ,day at close to their highest levels. Rates for Treasury bills fell slightly.</br></br>!] “The decline in the Federal funds rate helped the tone of the market, especially in the short end,” said Doug McAllister, a sales manager in the government securities department at Prudential-Bache Securities Inc. Among longer maturities, Mr. McAllister said, fears of a quick rise in inflation have subsided, but that has not been enough to entice many institutional investors.</br></br>The Federal funds rate, which measures the rate for overnight bank loans and is a closely watched benchmark for other short-term rates, averaged 6.36 percent in the week . ended Oct 1, up from the 5% percent , rate that had prevailed since late August. But in recent days, the funds ' rate has fallen to about 5% percent or .less, reassuring securities dealers I that the Federal Reserve is not trying i to raise rates.</br></br>I Rates for Treasury bills continued | to fall, with the three-month issue down to 5.07 percent, from 5.08 percent at Monday’s auction. Analysts said that central banks in West Germany, Switzerland and Belgium, which have recently bought dollars, might invest their funds in the bill market.

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Washington Watch: Acknowledging A Recession Old Ideas Never Die Covert Discrimination Disaggregate the Negative Briefcases. THE Carter Administration will officially acknowledge in the midyear revision of its economic forecasts, due this week, that a recession . is under way as a result of higher oil prices and that unemployment will now move up sharply over the next 18 months. Administration sources sav.</br></br>' “it’s looking pretty grim," said one key official, "and we’re now trying to offer rational choices for the new situation.” ,</br></br>The numbers are expected to show two or three quarters of either zero growth or actually decline in the output of goods and services with unemployment by the end of next year standing at 6% to 7 percent. Joblessness just reported for June had dropped to 5.6 percent, the lowest point in nearly five years.</br></br>The Administration now expects next December’s consumer prices to be at least 10 percent higher than last December’s. This compares with the initial forecast in 1979 of a 7.4 percent rise.</br></br>For next year some improvement is foreseen, with price increases expected to range between 8 and 8(6 percent. But inflation forecasting has not been one of the strong points of Carter economists. Underestimates have marked every forecast since 1977.

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U.S. Output Up by 0.1% Last Month: End of 6-Month Fall Raises Optimism on Chances of Recovery U.S. Output Up 0.1% in April. WASHINGTON, May 13 — Snapping a six-month decline, the nation’s factories, mines and utilities raised production slightly in April as assemblies of trucks and automobiles rebounded, the Federal Reserve reported today.</br></br>The increase of one-tenth of 1 percent, while neither large nor unexpected, was seen as indicating that the economy was approaching its low point and that a recovery might be imminent.</br></br>“We take this number seriously,” said James Annable, chief economist at the First National Bank of Chicago. “I think it’s good evidence that this recession is indeed bottoming out.” Data Intently Scrutinized Industrial production data cover only about 25 percent of the economy but are intently scrutinized these days since this is the sector of greatest sensitivity to the business cycle.</br></br>But while analysts were encouraged by the first rise in industrial output since September, today’s report also showed that output fell twice as much in March as initially estimated and that industry’s operating rate, the utilization of capacity, slipped yet again, to 78.3 percent.</br></br>It was quite possible, they added, that more months of declining output might lie ahead before the economy was clearly seen to be on the mend. Industrial activity is a “coincident” indicator, typically not turning up before the economy at large but not lagging behind it, either.

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BUCKLEY'S CAMPAIGN FERVENTLY LOW KEY: In Brooklyn and Nassau, Senator Scores Bureaucracy, Inflation and His Opponent, the 'Professor'. Senator James L. Buckley, still shy and almost diffident with prospective voters after five and a half years in public office, campaigned in Brooklyn and Nassau County this week in a low-key, friendly manner, preaching the evils of Federal bureaucracy and inflation.</br></br>With his left hand in his pocket and his right holding a microphone close to his mouth, the 53-year-old Conservative-Republican candidate, in a gray business suit matching his iron-gray, crewcut hair, never said, "Vote for me.”</br></br>He merely gave earnest explanations of what he stood for and what he opposed, and said these were the positions that must be supported if citizens were to remain free and well-represented.</br></br>Calls the ‘Professor* Wrong The only time the Senator mentioned his opponent, Daniel P. Moynihan, was when, in answering questions from an audience, he said that “Professor” Moyni-han’s stand on an issue was contrary to his, and wrong.</br></br>Even before a hostile audience of elderly Jewish men and women at the Senior Citizens Center of Flatbush. at 2100 Albemarle Road, Brooklyn, the Senator remained smiling and unflappable. How could he have approved of the sale of arms to Arab countries, he was asked In the ideal world, that could be avoided, he answered, “But I believe you want people in Washington to deal with the real world, not the world we would like to see.” “We’ve been watching your voting record for five years,” a woman called out from the audience of 125 people. The woman chided him for not voting for help for New York City in its financial crisis, thereby “depriving us of building up our police force.” “How can you justify us sending you back?,” she asked. “There are a large number of old people in New York, our future is now, not 10 years from now, and we need more police pr?itecJtio,1?',We are being mugged and robbed all the time.”

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Retail Sales Soar, Making a Rate Rise by the Fed More Likely: Evidence of a strong economy heightens chances of a Fed move on inflation.. last month after a surprisingly • strong surge in retail sales in Janu-' ary, Commerce Department figures showed today, making it more likely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the near future.</br></br>• said L. Douglas Lee, economist at HSBC Securities in Washington. “They’re spending what they’re earning.” ' The latest evidence of an economic upswing — and the fears it stimulated that the Fed will tighten credit in a bid to keep inflation firmly capped — sent tremors through Wall Street.</br></br>After shrugging off a strong jobs report on Friday, a lot of investors how appear to be having second . thoughts. There is a growing consensus that the Fed now has enough . evidence of a robust economy to move as early as its March 25 policy meeting to lift short-term interest . rates. Investors may also be somewhat concerned by the discord in Washington and fear that prospects . for achieving a balanced budget and a cut in capital gains taxes are dimming.</br></br>Consumers pushed a total of $213.2 billion across retail counters in February, an increase of eight-tenths of 1 ! percent, the department’s preliminary estimate showed. The rise was slightly more than expected but the impact was hugely magnified because it came on top of an upward revision for January that transformed a six-tenths of 1 percent gain into a 1.5 percent boom.</br></br>people into financial trouble for living beyond their means. Late payments on credit cards, the American Bankers Association reported today, jumped in the fourth quarter of 1996 to 3.72 percent of accounts, the highest proportion since 1980, when the trade group began to monitor delinquencies.

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Yields Little Changed on Treasury Issues. Yields on Treasury notes and bonds were essentially unchanged yesterday as most market participants withdrew to the sidelines in anticipation of a rise in the Federal Reserve’s discount rate.</br></br>The Government’s report that the Produce Price Index for finished goods rose three-tenths of 1 percent in November seemingly did not alter those expectations.</br></br>Treasury securities dealers said that after a brief flurry of activity at the opening, trading virtually halted. ‘Practically No Retail Business’ "This could turn out to be the lightest day of 1988,” one dealer said. “We saw practically no retail business. The 0.3 percent rise in the November Producer Price Index that was announced before the market opened was widely expected and had not the slightest impact.”</br></br>The Fed took another tack, making a token addition of $1.5 billion of reserves to the banking system.</br></br>* Municipal Bond Index, The Bond Buyer Salomon Brothers estimates for Treasury's bellwether bonds. notes and bills at about 4:30 P.M. interest rates,” said William V. Sullivan Jr., senior vice president and credit market specialist at Dean Witter Reynolds.

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Cuba Expects Continued Prosperity As Wider Market for Sugar Looms: CUBA PROSPERING; OUTLOOK IS BRIGHT. HAVANA—The year 1951 was highly prosperous for Cuba and the prospects for 1952 are bright, though marred by rising inflation and the possibility of lower sugar exports.</br></br>The sugar industry, on which Cuba’s economy largely depends, will produce an estimated 5,876,000 long tons in 1952, compared with 5,593,000 in 1951. Cuba’s sugar exports to the United States are determined under the United States quota system, and the balance of production must be sold in the world market. About 500,000 tons of the 1952 production already have been sold on the world mar-: ket, according to officials of the National Sugar Institute.</br></br>In the opinion of the industry, treaties signed in 1951 with Britain, Canada and Western Germany, together with reported shortages in the European beet crop and in cane sugar production in other areas, will give Cuba an outlet for her entire 1952 crop. At the same time, it is felt that any new crisis in the world situation will bring about an increase in the United States quota.</br></br>Cuba 56597819,810, according to thel institute’s figures. The sale of! molasses added 543,234,000. Molasses sold for an average of 15 cents a gallon, but with the added demand for industrial alcohol, attributable to the Western rearmament program, a higher price is expected for 1952 production.</br></br>Exports of tobacco, Cuba’s second most important crop, rose to 524,943,825 for eight months of 1951, a 40 per cent increase over the same period in 1950. Mineral exports for the first eight months of 1951 increased to $9,313,403, against 57,640,874 for the similar period in 1950.

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When Bonds Lose Their Convertibility: Investors can suffer big losses if companies go private. The only protection is checking terms before buying.. If no member of your household has had a subscription to Value Line in the last two years, you can now receive full-pa^ analyses of about 130 stocks each week for the next 10 weeks for S601. As a double bonus at no additional charge you will also receive the 2000-page Investors Reference Service (covering 1700 stocks) and the 72-page booklet, “A Subscriber’s Guide” by Arnold Bernhard, Value Line’s founder.</br></br>We make this special offer because we have found that a high percentage of those who try Value Line for a short period stay with it on long-term basis. The increased circulation enables us to provide this service for far less than would have to be charged our long-term subscribers were their number smaller.</br></br>You take no risk accepting this special offer. If you are not completely satisfied with The Value Line Survey, just return the material you have received within 30 days for a full refund of your fee. Send check or money order along with name, address and zip code together with this ad or:</br></br>Your subscription to Value Line may be tax-deductible under the New Tax Law. Consult your tax advisor. Allow 4 weeks for delivery. New York residents add sales tax. This subscription is nonassignablc. Foreign rates upon request. _ ^ ......</br></br>Kaufman and Broad, Inc. (NYSE: KB) has just reported its fifth record year in revenues, income from operations and assets. In 1987, its financial services group. Sun Life U.S.A., produced $846 million of revenues and $84.2 million of pretax operating income, more than four times its 1983 level. In the same period, Kaufman and Broad Home Corporation (NYSE: KBH) tripled its revenues to $672 million, pushing its pretax operating income to a record $70.6 million.

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Cutting Slack Is So Old School. THERE was hardly a Republican on the list of those rewarded with shout outs from President Obama last week when he signed his $787 billion economic recovery package into law in the towering, sun-dappled atrium of a Denver museum.</br></br>The “best vice president that we’ve had in a long time," that is, Joseph R. Bi-den Jr., in Mr. Obama’s vaunting prose, was there. So was "one of the outstanding leaders who helped shepherd this process” — Senator Max Baucus of Montana — along with three House Democrats from Colorado. Representative Mark Udall, was a no-show, but "let’s give him a round of applause anyway,” the president implored. The crowd complied with gusto.</br></br>The one-sidedncss in Denver underscored what remains the best-known statistic of the numbers-laden stimulus: only three Republicans voted for it. But it also underscored another political truth about the disappearance, at least in its familiar definition, of "the loyal opposition.”</br></br>licans — we are all Federalists,” Thomas Jefferson declared in at his first inaugural, heralding the birth of the American multiparty system Eventually, the concept of the “loyal opposition" came to mean that a president, especially a new one elected by comfortable majority, could expect cooperation from the other side, in deference to the will of the voters. But in the partisan politics of recent decades, another view developed, advanced by Congressional leaders like Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, that the minority party has the right, even obligation, to stick to its ideological principles.</br></br>1 more partisan-based notion of loyalty. ; John Warner, former Republican sena-| tor from Virginia, is one.

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Modest Rally Seen for Dollar in '95: Bankers See a Modest 1995 Rally for the Dollar. After a year of unexpected weakness, the dollar Is set to appreciate modestly against other major currencies this year, in the view of many bankers and economists. The rally, they say, will be helped by the expectation of a narrowing United States trade deficit and pledges by the Republicans controlling Congress to start slaughtering sacred budget cows.</br></br>But in an age of global capital flows where the bias is still against the dollar, the American currency is not set to regain the strength it showed in the 1980's, when it reached 277.65 yen and 3.4525 marks to the dollar, or even the modestly bullish values at the beginning of the 1990's, when the dollar reached 159.90 yen and 1.8350 marks.</br></br>"The dollar remains structurally weak," said Robert D. Hormats of Goldman, Sachs International, pointing to America's history of persistent trade deficits that keep dollars pouring out of the country as imports of foreign goods exceed exports of American products. American Investors are also discovering the allure of markets abroad and selling dollars to buy foreign currencies, stocks and bonds.</br></br>At the end of last week, the dollar was at 101.37 yen to the dollar, up from 99.58 at the end of 1994 and Its highest New York close since August. Against the mark, the dollar was at 1.5650, up. from 1.5495 at the end of last year but below Its recent high of 1.5814 on Dec. 21.</br></br>A rise in the dollar would have varying effects. For the Federal Reserve, it could reduce inflationary pressures as foreign goods become less expensive and American producers hold back some price in- creases of their own to remain-competitive. Trips abroad would be less expensive for American tourists.

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Surprising Jobs Report Gives the Dollar a Boost. A strengthening dollar lured investors away from the stock market on Friday, with a bright jobs report suggesting that an end might be in sight for huge stimulus efforts and rock-bottom interest rates.</br></br>Shares rose more than 1.1 percent at the open — at one point, the Dow Jones industrial average surged more than 150 points — as traders basked in the rosiest jobs report since the recession.began nearly two years ago.</br></br>But as investors snapped up currencies, giving the dollar one of its best rallies of the year, stocks stumbled and spent much of the day meandering between gains and losses before ending the day in positive territory.</br></br>“Unlike six months ago, now we’re getting improving reports in the economy, and it means less excitement in the stock market," said Joseph V. Battipaglia, a market strategist for Stifel Nicolaus. "The dollar, and its effect on commodities, stocks and gold, is the new calculus with each passing week and month as we move into the New Year.” fueling the dollar’s rise, ana- lysts said, was the Labor Department’s employment report showing that the economy shed just 11,000 jobs in November, less than a tenth of the roughly</br></br>125,000 job losses economists had forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 10 percent, from a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October. Those signs of hope suggested to investors that the Federal Reserve might lift interest rates sooner than analysts had expected. Higher interest rates mean more lucrative returns for investors who hold dollars.

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Stocks in Sharp Reversal After Early Rally: Stocks Endure a Sharp Reversal After Morning Rally Fades. PgJ2l-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</br></br>After a quiet session on Tuesday, an economic signal helped send the stock market soaring early yesterday, but the bond market yanked it back to earth after lunch. By the close, it was nearly back to where it started</br></br>Wall Street shocked Itself yesterday. The stock market rallied sharply in the morning, with the Dow Jones industrial average coming within two points of a record 4,200-point level. It then plunged sharply in the afternoon, giving up most of its gains, yet managed to close the day up 8.99 points at 4,160.80, still good for a record.</br></br>Stock traders and analysts cited a number of reasons for the Dow’s boom and bust, including the release of a positive economic indicator in the morning and the souring of the bond market in the afternoon. (Pages D2 and D20.)</br></br>But traders and investors may simply be getting wary of their own wild rush to buy. "1 haven’t seen a real buying panic until this morning,” said Todd Clark, managing director of equity trading at Rod-man & Renshaw. "What today's movement tells you is that this market went too far too fast."

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Treasury Prices End Mixed As Fed Holds Line on Rates. Prices .of Treasury securities were mixed yesterday, after the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee left interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting.</br></br>Bonds were initially higher in early trading after the Conference Board reported its consumer confidence reading had fallen in September to 97.4, below the average trade forecast of 100. In August it was 102.4. Analysts said the report suggested signs of waning consumer optimism that could restrain growth. People buy things when they feel confident; when they do not, manufacturing slows and inventories rise.</br></br>The 30-year Treasury issue gained 2/32 of a percentage point, to 10330/32; its yield, which moves in the opposite 'direction from its price, slipped to 6.57 percent, from 6.58 percent on Monday. But shorter-maturity bills, because they are more sensitive to monetary policy, were down sharply. The rate for a three-month bill was up 10 basis points, or hundredths of a percentage point, to 5.27 percent.</br></br>Anthony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Josephthal, Lyon & Ross, said he was sure that some of the early price gains were tied to the hopes of some who still believed that there was an outside chance the Fed would ease rates. “But those hopes did not come to fruition, and bonds relinquished those gains,” he said.</br></br>“I expect the bond market to remain in a narrow trading range over the short term until more evidence regarding the strength of the economy comes forth,” Mr. Dwyer continued. “Longer-term bond yields should continue to stay stable to lower over the longer term. It’s my opinion that given the favorable inflation outlook, bonds will retain their long-term appeal.” * Mr. Dwyer said yesterday’s Treasury auction of two-year notes did not go as well as it might have, but that it should not affect the favorable long-term outlook for bonds, as the inflation picture remains the fundamental key to rates.

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Investing: INVESTING WITH Jeffrey R. Tyler American Century Strategic Allocation: Aggressive Fund. The fund manager Jeffrey R. Tyler with his son Eric. Mr. Tyler says his team is having trouble finding potential buys among American stocks.</br></br>JEFFREY R. TYLER, lead manager of the $386 million American Century Strategic Allocation: Aggressive fund, Is still wary of • the faltering stock market, though •not as much as he was last spring.</br></br>Stocks accounted for 86 percent ol the fund’s assets In 1999, Mr. Tyler said, but the figure was down to 72 percent by last June. It has since . climbed back to 78 percent, the fund’s long-term average.</br></br>. The managers who help him pick American stocks, he said, are having trouble finding good candidates. “They're just not finding companies with the acceleration in earnings that they like to see,” he said.</br></br>The fund's analyst of midcap stocks has shifted money from technology stocks to health care. When traditional growth managers have to move into healtli care, Mr. Tyler said from his office in Mountain View, Calif., “that tends to make us a little more pessimistic on equities in general." ■ The fund lost 2.8 percent a year, on average, for the three years through Thursday, versus a decline of 11.9 . percent, annualized, for its category of large blend funds, which own a mix of growth and value stocks, according to Morningstar Inc. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index ..lost 13.1 percent a year, on average, •during that time.

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FOOD PRICES STEADY NEAR 1920 RECORD; NEW RISES FEARED: Retailers Pessimistic of Relief This Week Unless Buyer Resistance Increases GRAINS CLIMBING AGAIN O'Dwyer to Get Preliminary Report Tomorrow on Study by Special Committee FOOD PRICES STEADY HEAR 1920 RECORD. Food prices to consumers in New York and other cities held steady yesterday at levels rivaling or far exceeding those of the 1920 pries inflation. Most retailers saw no hope of checking the upward trend this week unless buyer resistance gains greatly in strength.</br></br>With private marxet analysts, Department of Agriculture specialists and experts on the staff of the Special Congressional Investigation into Living Costs agreeing that food prices, now double pre» war levels, may go still higher, official efforts to cope with the price spiral were pushed.</br></br>In the face of slight reductions in trading margins, of a Federal grand jury inquiry into meat marketing, and of demands from Washington that trading on margin be abolished or controlled, the Chicago commodity markets, together with the others of the country, rallied briskly and resumed their upward course.</br></br>The rally in grains recovered part of the ground lost when political pressure was applied to speculation on the Chicago markets. Wheat closed 3 to 5 cents higher on September delivery, corn 2 to 4!i cents higher, oats 1% to 2%. November contracts in soybeans advanced 7 V2 to 8 cents. Lard for September delivery closed with gains of 55 cents to §1.25 a hundred pounds and all classes of livestock were nominally steady in a normally dull market.</br></br>As Boston’s city administration organized to aid the Congressional price investigation that will get under way this week, Mayor O’Dwyer’s special committee of city officials appointed to investigate the price situation here met for two hours yesterday afternoon at City Hal 1 and agreed on the essential points of a preliminary report. The report will be prepared today and delivered to the Mayor tomorrow.

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Present Wage Structure: No Inflation Danger Seen if Income and Employment Level Is Maintained. ¥our editorial of July 24, “Wages and Prices,” expressed the view that wage increases had aggravated inflation and would prevent price reductions on. the ground that “high consumer in- j comes” make possible “the sale of goods and services at the higher prices required to cover higher costs.” May I make the following qualifications in order that we may have a clearer understanding of the relation between wages and prices ? (1) “High consumer incomes” incident to high money wages do not neces- ] sarily lead to “the sale of goods and services” at higher prices. Since the purchasing power of money wages is inversely related to prices, a further increase in money wages would narrow the existing deflationary gap between the cost of living and consumer incomes. In other words, increased money wages would merely offset a decrease in real wages, and so enable the existing inventories to be taken off the shelves at current prices. This will hold valid as long as money wages lag far behind the cost of living.</br></br>(2) Even if higher wages increase consumer incomes, it does not necessarily follow that inflation will be aggravated. It must be remembered that an increase in money incomes results in increased output rather than increased prices as long as the economy is at less than full employment. That is to say, as long as there are unemployed resources—human and material —to be utilized for increasing production a further increase in aggregate demand will not be dissipated in higher prices but will increase output and employment.</br></br>Although we have an approximation to full employment of labor at present, we are far from full employment of equipment. This means that the American economy is still capable of increasing output with the existing labor supply. When supply can no longer be increased because of full employment of labor and of equipment, as is conceivable at the height of a cyclical boom, then one can cogently argue about the inflationary danger of increased consumer incomes.</br></br>(3) Higher wages do not necessarily increase costs except perhaps in the case of marginal industries. Efficient industries can afford higher wages precisely because their unit costs are low. Even if it is true, as you aver, that wages have increased faster than productivity, and therefore have caused “substantially higher unit labor costs,” it is not a conclusive argument against future wage increases.</br></br>1 that higher productivity is a matter of an optimum combination of factors, including both capital and labor. (4) As long as wage increases are "related to general trends in productivity,” as the President’s Economic Report rightly insists that they should, there is no reason why higher prices should be “required to cover higher costs.” The President made the further recommendation in the same Report that “every effort should be made to absorb the cost of increases * * * through increased productivity and through reduction of profit margins.”

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JOBLESS RATE 4.1%, HIGHEST SINCE '65: Increase, the Sharpest in 5 Years, Attributed to Rise in Female Labor Force Jobless Rate Up Sharply to 4.1%; Highest Since '65. WASHINGTON, Oct. 11 — A large increase in unemployment among adult women last month gave the nation’s jobless rate its sharpest rise in nearly five years and pushed it to the highest level since late 1961k Tlje Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the national unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent of the labor force in September from 3.8 per cent in August.</br></br>The ^monthly rise was the biggest since November, 1962, and pushed the figure to the highest point since it stood at 4.1 per cent in November, 1965. The rate had been running between 3.5 per cent and 3.9 per cent since early 1966, except for a rise to 4 per cent last June.</br></br>Sign of a Slowdown Arthur M. Ross, Commissioner of Labor Statistics, attributed all of last month’s increase to an unusual rise in unemployment among adult women, which was the result of a heavy increase in the female labor force. He said thati much of the rise in joblessness probably reflected a change in unemployment definitions instituted in January.</br></br>A sharp rise in the unemployment rate normally is taken as a sign of an economic slowdown. That could tend to weaken the Johnson Administration’s case for a tax increase to head off inflation.</br></br>But Mr. Ross gave an explanation of the rise that suggested he thought it was only temporary. He indicated it was consistent with the “moderate but sustained expansion” of the economy.

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Treasury Issues Fall In Selloff Fed Official's Speech Revives Rate Fears. Treasury securities fell yesterday, as a heavy calendar of new corporate and municipal debt inhibited buyers. A Federal Reserve official’s warnings on inflation contributed to the selloff.</br></br>The price of the 30-year bond fell 1%2, to 952%2i to yield 6.83 percent, up from 6.79 percent on Wednesday.</br></br>Treasury prices have been held down this week by concerns over the market’s ability to absorb a number of large debt offerings coming, in particular an offering by U S West Capital Funding Inc., which grew yesterday to $4.1 billion.</br></br>Prices fell further yesterday, when Laurence H. Meyer, a Federal Reserve governor, suggested in a speech in Charlotte, N.C. that if the unemployment rate fell much further, the Fed would move to raise short-term interest rates. His comments revived speculation that the central bank was about to embark on a series of rate increases.</br></br>Mr. Meyer’s comments -seemed more explicit than usual from a Federal Reserve official, analysts said.

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8 3/8% NOTE RATE SET BY TREASURY: $2-Billion, 25-Month Issue to Be Offered Tomorrow at High-Yields Edge Up PATMAN ASKS ROLLBACK Tells Burns Reserve Risks Recession-Chase Lifts Mortgage Cost to 8% New Bond Issues Healthy Growth' Urged 8 3/8% NOTE RATE SET BY TREASURY Houston Airport Bonds. Numerous crosscurrents were at work, including word that President Nixon would conducl a news conference and speculation as to what rate the Treasury would set on a large financing tomorrow. Last night; notes would carry a rate of 8% per cent, a record. When announcing the issue on Monday a minimum bid of 99.51 $995.10 per bond was set: as usual, $1,000 is the sniailest denomination being offered.</br></br>NEngPwr 8%s03 101.75 lOOVi—Vi S.5S Mich Wls 8%si>3 99.50 99'/i —'h 8.67 Ala Pwr 8%s03 100.79 102 —'/a 8.49</br></br>The minimum price would produce a return of about 8.63 per cent, a calculation showed, but specialists said they expected the bidding to be strong enough to produce a level substantially below that.</br></br>Meanwhile, as rates crept higher, Representative Wright Patman, a traditional critic of banks and the Federal Reserve, said that the Reserve was risking a recession by failing to force a rollback in the “'drastic” rise in interest rates.</br></br>In a telegram to the Reserve’s chairman, Arthur F. Burns, the Texas Democrat, who is chairman of the House Banking and Currency Committee. said he was disturbed about Mr. Burns’s recent statements that further measures to restrict credit expansion might be necessary.

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Economic Report Prods Allies: Report on U.S. Economy Prods Allies on Growth. WASHINGTON, Jan. 29 — Amid new signs of an impending five-nation meeting to try to stabilize the dollar, President Reagan urged other major countries today to help reduce the American trade deficit, a key reason for the dollar’s decline.</br></br>The Administration has been tolerating the decline because it helps compensate for the reluctance of other countries, notably West Germany and Japan, to speed up their economies with tax cuts, interest rate cuts and other measures.</br></br>“For U.S. exports to grow, the economies of our trading partners must grow,” the President said in his annual report on the economy, a six-page, theme-setting letter accompanying the annual report of his Council of Economic Advisers. “It is essential that our trading partners enact policies that will promote internally generated growth.”</br></br>In a briefing with reporters. Beryl W. Sprinkel, the chairman of the council, called the trade deficit and the Federal budget deficit “two very important problems” that were linked.</br></br>Mr. Sprinkel said he anticipated "policy initiatives over the next few weeks,” apparently a reference to proposals that the Administration plans to submit to Congress. He predicted the trade deficit, an estimated $175 billion last year, would fall by more than $30 billion this year because of the decline of the dollar.

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Money Supply Up $3.2 Billion: Bond Prices Fall; 17 % Prime Set At 2 Big Banks Treasury Bill Yields Rise Money Supply Up $3.2 Billion. The Federal Reserve yesterday reported a $3.2 billion spurt in the money supply, reinforcing an upward movement in interest rates that began last week.</br></br>The news, which came in the wake of prime rate increases by two major banks, caused fixed-income securities to fall sharply in late afternoon trading while their yields, which move inversely to price, rose.</br></br>The Chase Manhattan Bank and the Manufacturers Hanover Trust Company raised their prime rates to 17% percent from 17 percent.</br></br>In response to the sharp rise in the basic measure of the nation's money supply for the week ended April 1, some economists predicted that the prime rate would rise one to one-and-a-hajf percentage points further within the next two to three months.</br></br>Before the late-aftemoon announcement of the money supply figures, prices in the bond markets had fallen more than a point. Following the Fed’s report, they dropped an additional 1% points.

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Falling Rates On Mortgages Inspire a Rush To Refinancing: Falling Mortgage Rates Prompt Rush to Refinance Baby boomers hope to pay off mortgages before facing college tuition.. aS interest rates on home mortgages in the state edged down recently toward the lowest level in l more than 15 years, Carolyn Hiller began 1 thinking about refinancing. Mrs. Hiller holds an lli/8 percent mortgage on her home in Stamford, she said, and she wanted to trade it in for a cheaper one with smaller monthly payments. But when she began contacting lenders, Mrs. Hiller had difficulty obtaining information, she said, because so many companies had been deluged with such requests.</br></br>“We’re finding a lot of banks don’t even return your calls," said Mrs. Hiller, an office manager at a Stamford real estate company. Employees at some institutions have provided her with current interest rates, she said, but have not bothered to follow up on her inquiries. “They’re just too busy,” she said.</br></br>With interest rates at the lowest level since 1977, many Connecticut homeowners have scrambled to cash in on the savings that refinancing can provide. Mirroring a national trend, lenders throughout the state are reporting a surge in refinancing applications. While lenders say they have kept up with the increased business, some recount stories of competitors unable to handle the barrage of inquiries and paperwork.</br></br>“Our refinancing business is on fire,” said Brent DiGiorgio, a spokesman for Connecticut National Mortgage Company, an affiliate of Connecticut National Bank. Mr. DiGiorgio said the volume of refinancing applications has increased fourfold during the past year, adding that the company has adequate staff to handle the onslaught. Refinancing now constitutes 85 percent of all mortgage applications, up from 30 percent a year ago, he said. Mortgage refinancing has been so brisk at the Centerbank Mortgage Company in Wa-terbury that additional employees have been hired to handle the applications, and the company is continuing to expand its staff.</br></br>“Obviously, the refinancing activity now is at just extraordinary levels,” said the company’s president and chief executive officer, Thomas C. Brown. He estimated that the volume of refinancing activity is four times as high as it was a year ago. The glut has resulted in an increase in loan processing times, he said, to 45 days from 20.

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A Recovery Unlike Others Seems to Alter Fed Rate View. WASHINGTON, Jan. 25 — If this economic recovery were like almost any other in the fast several decades, President Bush might well be on a classic election-year collision course with the Federal Reserve.</br></br>But Fed officials have made it clear that they view this recovery as quite different from those in the past, and they seem determined to continue their policy of offering remarkably cheap money, even though the economy seems poised for its fastest growth in four years.</br></br>The Fed's staying of the course would be welcome news to President Bush's re-election campaign. The first President Bush assigned part of the blame for his re-election defeat in 1992 to decisions by the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan. to keep interest rates relatively high.</br></br>The difference this time is that inflation, running at barely 1 percent and still slowing. is — if anything — lower than Fed officials would like. Job creation, meanwhile, remains weaker than in any recovery since World War 11 and factory use remains at surprisingly low levels.</br></br>Analysts all but unanimously predict that when the Fed’s policy-making committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, members will leave the federal funds rate — the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight — at just 1 percent and will probably offer few new hints about rate increases in the future.

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BUSINESS WORLD: Store Sales Here Down 5% Spot Tin Prices Up 1c TV Set Made in Units Premiums on Burlap Hold G.E. Franchises Blanket Dealer Fibre Drum Demand Rises Cost Accountants Elect N.Y. Chapter President. Im- Do- Food-Indus-Index, ports.mestic.Farm.stuffs, trials. May 15* ..258.4 257.9 258.6 324.4 329.8 227.2</br></br>Sales of New York and Brooklyn department stores declined 5 per cent last week compared with the corresponding week last year, according to the “flash” report issued yesterday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The decline for the four weeks ended last Saturday was also 5 per cent.</br></br>Spot tin prices were raised 1 cent a pound yesterday over levels prevailing last Saturday. Active buying in large volume marked the trend of consumer ordering, merchants said. Principal reason given for higher prices was that buyers fear political conditions in the Far East may hold up deliveries later in the year. At the close yesterday tin was 78% cents a pound.</br></br>The Tele-tone Radio Corporation has introduced its first combination 'television and radio set, it was announced yesterday by Morton M. Schwartz, general sales manager. The model is a “five-way” combination unit with 16-inch rectangular TV tube and features a revolutionary design in which the radio-phonograph unit is independently contained and may be sold separately by dealers. The entire console will retail for $299.95. It is known as model “316-B.”</br></br>M. R. Odermatt, controller of the Mundet Cork Corporation, North Bergen, N. J., was elected president of the New York Chapter of the National Association of Cost Accountants last night at its annual meeting in the Governor Clinton Hotel. His appointment is effective July 1. He succeeds Cecil D. Marshall.

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INTEREST RATES SHOW ADVANCES: Bond Prices Fall in Reaction to Reports Federal Reserve May Not Ease Credit BURNS TALK A FACTOR Agnew's Resignation, War in the Middle East Said to Have Little Impact Entered Market Friday INTEREST RATES SHOW ADVANCES New Bond Issues. I ports that the Federal Reserve was unlikely to ease credit conditions further. Over the weekend, Arthur Bums, chairman of the Federal Reserve, gave a gloomy report to the Business Council at Hot Springs, Va., and it was interpreted to mean Credit that the central Markets bank was unlikely to relax its grip on credit conditions much, if any, more than it already has since mid-September.</br></br>Treasury bill rates rose several basis points, Treasury notes and bond prices dropped as much as y2 point and corporate bond prices slid as much as 34 point. The tax-exempt bond market, which is faced with a heavy schedule of new-bond sales today, moved just slightly toward higher yields.</br></br>In the banking system, the First National Bank of Chicago announced yesterday that it was holding its base rate on corporate loans unchanged at 10 per cent. The bank noted, however, that money-market pressures had continued to ease somewhat last week and that its formula guideline had dipped to 10y2 per cent for the current week, well below its</br></br>According to Chauncey E. Schmidt, vice chairman of the bank, the country’s 10th largest, “The continued easing in money-market pressures is an encouraging sign, though the slight decline suggests that the return too more normal levels will be gradual. Thus it may be several weeks before market balance is restored, but it appears reasonably certain at this point that the run-up is over and that rates have reached their peak.’’</br></br>Dr. Bums unquestionably was the main cause of the credit market’s move toward higher rates yesterday. Many bond dealers and traders agreed, but several conceded they were still confused.

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MONEY TIGHTNESS DUE TO CONTINUE: Bank Reserves to Be Raised, but Other Factors Are Expected to Be a Drain MONEY TIGHTNESS DUE TO CONTINUE. Poverty in the midst of plenty. This may seem an inappropriate phrase to apply to the New York money market banks, those dozen or so multi-billion dollar institutions whose combined assets are almost one-fifth the resources of all Federal Reserve member banks in the United States.</br></br>Nevertheless, tile phrase is descriptive of a situation that has prevailed since the nation's money managers began to shift early this year from a policy of credit restraint to one of ease. For although the Federal Reserve has pumped well above $2,000,000,000 in new reserves into the banking system, the New York banks find themselves forced to live pretty much from hand to mouth as far as reserves are concerned.</br></br>In the next two weeks, the money managers will make their largest single addition so far in the present period of ease to the supply of these “high-powered dollars,” dollars that the banks can use to support additional loans and investments in the ratio roughly of $7 of new loans and investments for each new dollar of reserves.</br></br>On Thursday, the 6,200 Federal Reserve member banks will be permitted to count all the cash in their vaults and tills as reserves, something they have been permitted to do only partially until now. This is expected to provide $150,000,000 in new reserves for banks in New York and Chicago, $380,000,000 for banks in other large cities, and $900,000,000 for so-called country banks, those in smaller cities and towns.</br></br>For the country banks, the gain will be offset to the extent of $380,000,000 by an increase from 11 to 12 per cent ini the percentage of deposits re-j iquired to be immobilized in cash with the Federal Reserve i Banks, making the net increase I for them $520,000,000.

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STEEL, COAL HOPES IGNORED BY STOCKS: Opening Firmness Soon Wanes and Prices Ease to Send Index Down 0.49 on Day GENERAL MOTORS UP 2 1/4 Starts at 3 1/4 Gain After a 30-Minute Delay to Match Orders -- Du Pont Strong STEEL, COAL HOPES IGNORED BY STOCKS. Prospects for peace in the steel and coal industries were brushed aside yesterday by the stock market and, after a firm start, prices eased. General Motors and du Pont were exceptions to the trend as a result of the large year-end dividend declared by the former. Du Pont, the holder of 10,000,000 shares of the automotive giant will be richer by $42,500,000 as a result. On balance, the list leaned heavily to the lower side and the composite rate was down 0.49 point at the end of the day.</br></br>The flash report that John I*. Lewis had ordered a three-week truce in the soft coal tie-up failed to stiffen the market; in fact, prices weakened after the announcement.</br></br>Trading was largely in stock* generally labeled as "quality” issues and the activity in these issues accounted for a rise in volume on the Stock Exchange to 1,510,000 shares, against Monday’s turnover of 1,170,000 shares. The market broadened to include 1,163 individual stocks, of which 545 lost ground and 324 were up at the finish.</br></br>Orders for General Motors proved so heavy at the opening of business that it took thirty minutes for brokers to match transactions and the first item was a block of 18,000 shares which changed hands at a gain of 3% points over Monday’s close. This had been foreshadowed by comparable gains on Monday in San Francisco and on Tuesday in Chicago. The market remained open in the Midwest city, while the New York Exchanges were closed due to election day. Du Pont also opened higher. The early gains which predominated through the list soon evaporated, however, and after churning about, quotations cased.</br></br>General Motors was unable to hold all of its early ..dvance and closed at 71%, up 2% points on the day. It was the most active stock on a turnover of 53,900 shares, followed by du Pont, which •rose 1% points to 60% on 28,000 shares. Studebaker edged ahead % point to 25 yR on 21,800 shares but Chrysler, ex-dividend, fell % point to close at 56 Vi.

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Happiness in Detroit: Return to Work For Many After Long Industry Layoffs: It's Happiness in Detroit: Many Returning to Work. Bradford Mallory, a United Auto Workers volunteer, discussing food stamp problems with one of the auto workers in the union’s offices in Detroit.</br></br>DETROIT, July 3—Bradford Mallory, a worker at Chrys-leds Hamtramck, Mich., plant, has been laid off for eight months and has only 12 weeks left of unemployment insurance. But he is no longer worried.</br></br>A couple of weeks ago he received a welcome letter from the company asking him to come back to work on Aug. 4.</br></br>His sense of relief is being shared by many workers as the auto industry is slowly beginning to recover from the severely depressed car sales of last fall, winter and spring.</br></br>In the last three months, tens of thousands of auto workers have been called back to their jobs after many months of unemployment.

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STOCKS DRIFT OFF IN SLOW TRADING: Volume Cut to 4.72 Million Shares -- Interest Shifts From Mining Issues KEY AVERAGES DECLINE Some Strength Develops in Heavy-Equipment Makers -- Autos Irregular STOCKS DRIFT OFF IN SLOW TRADING. | There was no particular selling pressure, merely the lack of a strong current to carry prices one way or the other.' : Trading lagged, and only 4.72 million shares changed hands, a sharp slide from the 5.89 million shares traded on Wednesday.</br></br>Minuses outpaced pluses, and the leading averages recorded the lower market by dipping a couple of points below their record levels.</br></br>While Calumet generated a trading volume on Wednesday of 575,600 shares, only 185,200 shares crossed the tape yesterday.</br></br>Texas Gulf Sulphur added 1%, to 53%, on sharply diminished volume. Its 144,200-share turnover yesterday compared with 255,700 shares on Wednesday.</br></br>There was a notable shift in investor interest yesterday as Baldwin Lima surged into third place on 120,000 shares. In an apparent chart breakout, the stock of the heavy-construction and diesel - engine maker reached a 1964 high of 15%, closing at 15, up 1%.

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CREDIT MARKETS Short-Term Rates Seen Dropping: Outlook Cloudy For Long Term. Many credit market participants expect short-term interest rates to decline this week, but they are uncertain whether that drop will be matched by lower rates for longer-term notes and bonds.</br></br>A heavy volume of Treasury borrowing this quarter is cited as one reason why note and bond yields may not fall.</br></br>Economists at the Chase Manhattan Bank estimate that, although investors will be faced with a weekly stream of Treasury bills, notes or bonds, “this volume of financing by itself need not force rates higher.” The impetus for higher rates will be inflation trends, Federal Reserve monetary policy and the overall balance of credit demand and supply, they said.</br></br>Chase put the Treasury’s new cash needs this quarter at $26 billion, plus an additional $4 billion needed by Federal agencies whose borrowings are not included in regular budget calculations. Estimates of Treasury borrowing needs were not much different at the Bank of New York, but economists there expressed more concern about the pressure for higher interest rates exerted by Government borrowings.</br></br>“If the recent strengthening in the private sector’s demand for credit continues, the Treasury’s slate of financing could be a source of extreme pressure on interest rates as 1980 comes to a close,” they said.

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Bank's Trash Is Treasure for Grabbing: FILM REVIEW. In the breezy, amoral heist comedy "Mad Money," 'Tun with Dick and Jane" meets “9 to 5Ton the way to recession. If this uncomfortably timely movie lacks the political bite of the first and the cozy star chemistry of the second, it sputters to fitful life in the crooked grin of Diane Keaton, whose character Bridget Cardigan, an upper* middle-class homemaker in suburban Kansas City, Mo., develops an insatiable lust for larceny.</br></br>Us in "Fun With Dick and J;jhe,” financial crisis inspires se-rijus theft. No sooner has Don (Ted Danson), Bridget’s husband, sprung the alarming news tlipt he has been downsized from his cushy corporate job and is $:i86,000 in debt, than she springs into action.</br></br>(is there a place in the work-ce for an upper-middle-class itnnn of a certain age with a degree in comparative literature ai d no job experience? Yes, if she accepts humiliating work as a ju litor in the local Federal Re--si i ve Bank. Surrounded by .money in a high-security environment of surveillance cameras, checkpoints and employees subject to random searches, Bridget, while pushing a mop, becomes obsessed with getting her hands oij some of the dough.</br></br>(The lucre she craves is literally filthy. Every day carts of old bills aik? transported under lock and key tokhredding machines. Since the money is going out of circulation, diverting some wouldn't really be theft, would it? That’s how Bridget rationalizes her scheme, in which she enlists two handpicked co-conspirators to change the locks on the carts so they can grab some moola during its transit to the shredders. She airily calls it recycling.</br></br>Bridget initially decides to steal just enough to allow her family to get out of debt and not have to sell its fancy house. But just enough soon becomes more than enpugh, as she amasses a basement’s worth of dirty money.

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Dow, Rising 29.88, Is Now Up 250 This Year. NOTICE OF REDEMPTION TO HOLDERS OF PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY’S FIRST AND REFUNDING MORTGAGE BONDS SERIES 84B, 14%, DUE AUGUST 1, 1994 (CUSIP No. 694308 CM7), AND SERIES 84C, 13.5%, DUE NOVEMBER 1, 2017 (CUSIP No. 694308 CN5)</br></br>Notice is Hereby Given by Pacific Gas and Electric Company, a California corporation, that it will redeem, on June 1, 1989(theDate of Redemption), all of its outstanding Series 84B and 84C First and Refunding Mortgage Bonds (the Bonds).</br></br>Upon surrender of said Bonds at one of the specified places of redemption, there will be paid to the holders of the Series 84B Bonds the applicable redemption price of $1,040.00 per $1,000 principal amount held, which includes the principal amount and a redemption premium of 4%, and to the holders of the Series 84C Bonds the applicable redemption price of $1,105.90 per $1,000 principal amount held, which includes the principal amount and a redemption premium of 10.59%.</br></br>In order to receive prompt payment, the Bonds must be received by one of the agents listed below. Registered, insured mail is not necessary for this redemption. Also, no special transmittal form is required. The checks will be issued to the registered holders. Therefore, the Bonds should not be signed.</br></br>Pacific Gas and Electric Company Shareholder Services 77 Beale Street, Room 2600 San Francisco, California 94106

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Short-Term Rates Move Lower: Demand Rises for 3- and 6-Month Bills. Short-term interest rates continued to fall yesterday, as traders and investors bought Treasury bills and notes on the expectation that the Federal Reserve Board would lower key rates again soon.</br></br>That expectation helped increase demand at the Treasury’s weekly auction of three-month and six-month bills; rates on those securities fell to their lowest levels in more than 19 years.</br></br>On Friday, the Fed signaled that it had lowered its target for the overnight Federal funds rate to 4(6 percent after the Government reported that non-farm payroll employment fell by more than 240,000 jobs during November.</br></br>Normally, analysts said, the Fed might want to delay further easing until it could determine if the economy was responding to lower rates. But with Congress and the Bush Administration apparently moving to create ways to stimulate the econ; omy, the Fed is under pressure to apply more monetary stimulus soon,, the analysts said. And the next meeting of the central bank’s policy-making Open Market Committee is only a week away.</br></br>“Personally, I would like to see some patience, to allow the Fed some time to see how the reductions in rates they have engineered since August are working,” said Samuel J. Kahan, chief financial economist at Fuji Securities Inc. in Chicago. “But given the politics of the moment, they will probably ease.”

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LAYOFF PROVISIONS BUOY AUTO UNION: G.M. Sweetener on Jobs and Retirement Will Aid Both Workers and Company. “If they raise the retirement benefits to give us more money to get by on, I would consider retiring early,” Issa Fakhoury said of the proposed pact between General Motors and the United Automobile Workers. Mr. Fakhoury has 20 years at G.M.’s plant in Hamtramck, Mich.</br></br>DETROIT, Sept. 18 — The subject was unemployment, but the mood of auto workers employed by the General Motors Corporation was anything but bleak.</br></br>One reason is a provision of the United Automobile Workers’ tentative contract with the company under which General Motors may lay off workers for only 36 weeks at most over the next three years even if car and truck sales plummet.</br></br>While any contract that envisions 36 weeks without a job might seem to provide little reason for cheer, this proposed safeguard on employment was greeted joyfully by the union, whose “If the bottom falls out, you want to have something to fall back on,” said John Chapman, an elected bargainer from Local 14 in Toledo, Ohio. “No one likes to go through life with a cloud hanging over their head.”</br></br>The tentative contract was approved today by the union’s bargaining council, a group of about 400 representatives elected by the company’s hourly workers. Mr. Chapman and others predicted that all the workers would overwhelmingly ratify the proposed contract within two weeks.

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FLORIDA COUNTS THE GATE: Tourist Influx Expected To Achieve a New High in 1959. Tallahassee, Fia.—This promises to be Florida’s record year for tourists. The previous best year! was 1957, when there were about 8,000,000 vacationing visitors. There was a drop to around 7,000,000 in 1958 because of the national business recession and a succession of winter freezes in Florida. This year's tourist volume may be well, above 8,500,000 and perhaps nearer to 9,000,000 if year-end business keeps up the pace set during the first nine months of; the year.</br></br>The Florida Development Commission, which has an elab-j orate system for measuring the tourist flow, believes its 1959 figures indicate that the coming winter season will be better than average. What is especially encouraging is the big summer influx of tourists. The Development Commission esti-j mates that 1,322,130 entered the state by automobile during August, or 101,371 more than came by car in July. The August total was a 45 per cent increase over August, 1958.</br></br>8,500.000 to 9,000,000 this year. But during this time the facilities to take care of tourists have more than doubled in the most phenomenal expansion of hotels, motels, apartment buildings and restaurants this country has witnessed in a single decade.</br></br>New Category The Florida Hotel and Restaurant Commission has recently revised its figures in several important particulars. For one thing, it no longer computes lodging facilities in terms a* rooms but in living units, a recognition of the growing preponderance of apartments ranging in size from small kitchenettes I to those of three to five rooms or larger.</br></br>There are now 23,102 apart-i ment buildings, with 163,118 units, licensed in Florida. These are an important part of tourist facilities, particularly in the southern part of the state, and the biggest gains are being made in this classification. Between Jan. 1 and July 1, this year, there was a gain of 1,511 apartments, but part of this was the result of reclassifying some motels as apartment buildings.

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Miller Decries Increased Rates: Criticizes Fed's Tactics on Money Goals Trying to Curb Inflation. David Rockefeller, the chairman of the Chase Manhattan Bank, speaking at yesterday’s meeting of the American Bankers Association In Chicago.</br></br>CHICAGO. Oct. 13 (AP) — Treasury Secretary G. William Miller today reiterated his criticism of the Federal Reserve Board over recent increases in interest rates, which he said were endangering the nation’s economic recovery. He also said that telling Americans there was a quick cure to inflation would be “a false promise. ”</br></br>Before addressing the American Bankers Association, Mr. Miller told reporters at a news conference that “an unnecessary and unjustified increase in interest rates” would adversely affect the housing and automotive industries most of all and “could result in another slowing of the economy.” But he said, “I don’t think that will happen because I think that everyone is pointing to the danger.”</br></br>Mr. Miller said the Fed's technique of managing bank reserves to control the nation’s money supply had been inconsistent in the last year. He said the Fed had “overreacted in the short term,” adding, “The Federal Reserve does not appear to have been a purist on this issue.” He contended that the Fed should allow money growth to go temporarily beyond its targets rather than let interest rates climb.</br></br>“We should not overreact,” the Secretary said. “We should show more willingness to look at the issues over a longer period of time and not react prematurely.”

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Mood of Caution Rules the Post-Crash Market: IN THE NEW YORK REGION Mood of Caution Rules the Post-Crash Market IN THE NEW YORK REGION. Midtown condominium, the Aurora, at the comer of 57th Street and lOth Avenue, is offering one-bedroom apartments in $275,000 price range.</br></br>GURING that panic on Wall Street might deflate property prices throughout New York City, Douglas P. Klassen decided to halt his search for an apartment indefinitely when the stock market plummeted last</br></br>But after several months without any sign of falling prices, Mr. Klassen resumed his search. He finally settled on a new two-bedroom condominium at Fifth Avenue and 16th Street for $444,500, only a few thousand dollars below the developer’s asking price.</br></br>“I looked at a few places after the crash that were billed as fire sales — but those claims were nothing more than advertising hype," said Mr. Klassen, a 38-year-old investment banker. “There’s clearly been a stoppage or slowdown of price increases, but no fire sales, at least not in quality buildings.”</br></br>Indeed, all the anxiety sparked by the stock-market crash nearly a year ago has not devastated the prices of homes in New York City. But a sober, cautious mood still overhangs the marketplace. Owners are trimming their expectations of price appreciation, buyers are taking their time, and developers are fighting harder for each sale — often reaching out to buyers overseas.

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HOUSE APPROVES $2.20 WAGE FLOOR BY NEXT SUMMER: Household Workers Covered for First Time--Bill Sent to Receptive Senate HOUSE APPROVES $2.20 WAGE FLOOR. WASHINGTON, June 6 — President Nixon lost a key round in his fight against inflation tonight as the House voted to increase the minimum wage for nearly 35 million workers to $2.20 an hour within a year and to extend coverage for the first time to about a million household servants.</br></br>The vote was 287 to 130. Voting for the bill were 208 Democrats and 79 Republicans. Against it were 104 Republicans and 26 Democrats.</br></br>The present minimum wage for most workers is $1.60 an hour. The bill would increase this to $2 an hour this year and to $2.20 an hour on July 1, 1974</br></br>Seeking to reduce what he considered the inflationary impact of the Democratic-spon-sored measure, the President had backed a substitute providing a three-step wage increase starting with $1.90 this year, $2.10 a year later and $2.20 after two years—and not covering any additional workers.</br></br>The Republican substitute was defeated, 218-199, a mar-j gin of 19 votes. Joining 181 Democrats in opposing the substitute were 37 Republicans. Voting for were 149 Republicans and 50 Democrats, most of these from rural Southern and border state districts.

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GOLD GAIN MADE BY U.S. IN MARCH: $23-Million Rise Reported by the Federal Reserve First Since September LOSS FOR YEAR IS CUT Total Drain for All of 1967 Could Remain Small Payments Held Factor. > WASHINGTON, April 30 — , The United States gained $23-,;,million of gold in March, the ,, Federal Reserve Board reported --today.</br></br>... This was the first monthly gold gain since last September «nd brought the total gold stock ,, at the end of March to $13,-.'.'184,000,000.</br></br>• For the year to date, the ... gold loss had been relatively modest at $51-million, and there ,1s some reason to expect the loss to remain small for 1967 as a whole.</br></br>This would be because the \alance-of-payments surpluses Borresponding to the American "teficit may be concentrated in ■ countries, chiefly Britain and ••• Vest Germany, that are not exacted to convert their additional dollars into gold.</br></br>■ The March figures did not re-...^ect the sale of $50-million of .(gold to the United States by .Canada, which took place in 1 April. Thus April may also show « gain.

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Local Government Now in a Scramble To Clamp New Tax Hooks Upon the People: Local Government Now in a Scramble To Clamp New Tax Hooks Upon the People. Local government budget-making time is now at hand and it is the turn of state and municipal officials to. feel the money pinch of price inflation. Just as private enterprise, because of. the shrinking market for equity capital, is going more and more into debt, so local government, because of the insufficiency of traditional real estate tax yields, is dropping new ! kinds of tax hooks into the disposable income of the people.</br></br>The budget just proposed for this state by Governor Dewey calls for increased levies on existing tax sources—incomes, corporate franchises, gasoline and pari-mutuel betting. In -Connecticut, Gov. Chester Bowles wants to supplant a sales tax with an income tax. It is estimated that about one-third of the income tax yield to Connecticut would come from taxes that otherwise would be sopped up by the Federal Government.</br></br>Tax sources such as these, until recent years, were a concern mostly of the Federal Government, the states and a few large cities. But since the end of the war, noh-real-estate taxes .have been invoked increasingly by municipal and other local subdivisions . of state government. Pennsylvania has granted authority to tax anything, not taxed by the state to 3,600 local units, ■ including forty-nine cities, 937 boroughs, sixty, first-class townships and 2,542</br></br>school districts. As a result, more than 125 local governments—many of them school districts — are levying-income taxes. Other levies mushrooming in Pennsylvania and other states on the most local level of government inolude taxes on sales, liquor, gasoline, payrolls, tobacco, admissions, luxury meals, utility ' services, coal handling and automobile and truck use. In Boston, Mayor James M. Curley has proposed a city tax on industrial profits.</br></br>The conflict of. interest inherent in’-any such tax rush is moving political scientists and financiers to inquire how far and how long the catch-as-catch-can can go on before the different levels'-of government start getting in each other’s hain The time may not be distant, it is warned, when the "multi-tiered monstrosity” of public enterprise may have to be rationalized on a new basis—both as to function and as to tax authority—and new yardsticks devised for appraising local government credit in the marketplace.

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Reagan's Target: Benefits: Freezing Automatic Rises in Social Security And Other Outlays Is Core of Budget Assault Reagan's Budget Strategy: Freezing Benefits. WASHINGTON, Jan. 26 — At the heart of President Reagan’s strategy for the 1984 budget is his most ambitious assault yet on the automatic, inflation-driven growth of large programs print for halting the growth of the budget in 1984 will come in his Budget Message next Monday. But he has already identified the political keystone of his budget strategy: a six-month freeze on the annual cost-of-living adjustment, known popularly as COLA, in</br></br>The opening for Mr. Reagan to use that as the pivot of his budget strategy was created by the bipartisan agreement in the National Commission on Social Security less than two weeks ago. The notion of delaying or freezing inflation-linked increases in guaranteed benefits has a ripple effect throughout the proposed budget.</br></br>Anticipating Democratic arguments that his military budgets and big tax cuts are largely responsible for the huge new deficits, the President detailed his rationale in his State of the Union Message Tuesday night. “The fact is,” he contended, “our deficits come from the uncontrolled growth of the budget for domestic spending.” Then, with evident frustration, he added, “In spite of all our economies and efficiencies and without adding any new programs, basic, necessary domestic spending provided for in this year’s budget will grow to almost $1 trillion over the next five years.” proposes repeating the six-month Social Security “COLA freeze” in the veterans’ disability and pension program, the railroad retirement program and the Supplemental Security Income program for the elderly poor, netting another $1 billion to $2 billion in savings.</br></br>Moreoever, if Mr. Reagan has his way, Federal military and civilian employees will be hit even harder. The President has suggested freezing both their pay scales and their retirement benefits for an entire year.</br></br>The freeze idea fits naturally with Mr. Reagan’s bent for curbing the growth of most social programs and, officials say, will allow him to push for the first time for real shrinkage in many programs.

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Reports on Business Conditions Throughout the Nation in Latest Week: New York Philadelphia Boston Chicago St. Louis Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Kansas City Minneapolis San Francisco Dallas Retail Store Sales. 12 were 19 per cent above volume in the corresponding week of last year, according to the Federal Reserve Board. The (sharprise was attributed to the fact that Mother’s Day was one week earlier this year than last.</br></br>All twelve Federal Reserve districts reported gains—with St. Louis the highest at 33 per cent. Philadelphia’s 12 per cent increase was the smallest.</br></br>In the four-week period ended May 12 sales were 3 per cent higher than the 1955 level. Sales for the year to date were 3 per cent higher than last year.</br></br>Following are reports of business activity in the various districts in the latest weeks for which data are available:</br></br>Department store sales last week increased by comparison with the corresponding week last year. Sales in the previous week had been 20 per cent above the 1955 level.

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VOLUME IS A RECORD: Bond Market Attracting Many -- Washington Ready With Help Stocks Battered, but Dow Rises by 102.27. New York: Today, clouds, showers, then clearing skies. High 56-61. Tonight, variably cloudy. Low'37-43. Tomorrow, sunny, windy. High 47-50. Yesterday: High 66, low 52. Details on page Cl8.</br></br>Damaged bank building, bottom, and hotel show path of a crippled A-7 jet as it hit the ground short of Indianapolis Airport. At least nine people on the ground were killed after Maj. Bruce Teagarden ejected safely from the plane seconds before it crashed. Page A22.</br></br>MOSCOW, Oct. 20 — A political dissident recently released from a Soviet psychiatric hospital said today that the habitual use of punitive psychiatric treatment in the Soviet Union remained unchanged despite recent criticisms of such practices in the Soviet press.</br></br>“There are no changes,” said the dissident, Vladimir Titov. “On the contrary, it’s getting nastier.” Mr. Titov was released Oct. 9 from the special psychiatric hospital in the Russian city of Oryel.</br></br>New York City officials yesterday announced a tentative settlement with the largest municipal union, District Council 37. The contract would provide three annual raises of 5 percent each.

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Trenton G.O.P. Leaders Agree on a Charity Care Plan: A step toward ending a financing logjam for hospitals.. Admiring the architecture of Grand Central Terminal yesterday as the transportation hub gets ready for a huge remodeling job were Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Gov. George E. Pataki. The project to restore the station to its original grandeur is supposed to be completed in 1998.</br></br>TRENTON, Feb. 15 — On the day the state first missed its monthly payment to reimburse hospitals for providing medical treatment to the poor, Republican legislative leaders agreed today to pay for the state’s charity care program by continuing to use surplus revenues from the unemployment insurance fund.</br></br>Hospital officials had feared that they would have had to begin laying off workers and closing wards if the state had not taken steps toward resuming payments. Today, the state had been scheduled to distribute $33 million to 84 hospitals.</br></br>The state stopped payment after its authority to rely on the Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund ended on Dec. 31. State officials have not come up with a replacement for the expired system.</br></br>But the agreement, reached by the Senate President, Donald T. Di-Francesco, a Republican from Scotch Plains, and the Assembly Speaker, Jack Collins, a Republican from Salem County, would provide $300 million to hospitals this year, a $100 million reduction from what was distributed to hospitals last year. The plan proposes to phase out dependence on the unemployment insurance fund over five years and eventually pay the entire cost of charity care from the state budget’s general fund by the year 2000.

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Holiday Sales Overcome Slow Start: Sales Overcome Slow Start. At Roosevelt Field, Bill Hawkins gets some advice from his children as to what dress might suit mother. Below: Shoppers at another store.</br></br>WITH less than two weeks left to the holiday shopping season, retailers on the Island say that after a slow start things began picking up in the . middle of last week and that sales, despite the continuing recession, were better than had been anticiated.</br></br>They attributed the slow start to the unseasonably warm weather that dominated the first week of December. “When the temperature is in the mid-70’s and you’ve packed away your summer clothes, you’re not about to go shopping for a sweater or winter coat,” said Frieda Stangler, director of marketing for the Roosevelt Field</br></br>When it turned colder last Wednesday, she said, “the shoppers began to turn out and the worried shop owners began smiling. ’’</br></br>Aside from the weather, both consumers and retailers appear to have planned carefully and conservatively for the Christmas season. The retailers have been careful not to overstock their shelves or hire too many employees, and consumers are sticking to carefully drawn up lists and are shopping around for the’ best possible price.

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Opening the Fed's Doors From Inside: Alan Blinder Preaches Communication at Tight-Lipped Central Bank Blinder Tries to Open Fed's Doors From Inside. The silence of his office is deafening, Alan S. Blinder says, as the Clinton appointee struggles to make his own voice heard as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve.</br></br>WASHINGTON — What is most striking about Alan S. Blinder’s large, sunny office at the Federal Reserve is how quiet it is. That’s partly tradition. The men and women who set the nation’s interest rates don’t drop in on one another very often. But for Mr. Blinder, who came aboard last summer as the Fed’s vice chairman, hoping to make his voice heard, the isolation was a big obstacle.</br></br>"I thought there would be more governor-to-governor chitchat,” Mr. Blinder said in an interview. “I thought the staff would be walking in to my office more, telling me, ‘You ought to know about this; you ought to know about that.’ That happens to some extent, but not nearly as much as I had imagined it would.”</br></br>Mr. Blinder found his impact inside the Fed largely limited to what he had to say at meetings of the central bank’s policy makers — meetings dominated by the chairman, Alan Greenspan. But he also took his case to the public, revealing in speeches and interviews the dynamics of the Fed’s private policy debates. And gradually Mr. Blinder’s influence is starting to be felt.</br></br>“My biggest disagreement with my colleagues at the Fed is over openness,” Mr. Blinder said. “I believe we

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EVERYBODY'S BUSINESS: Hey, Guys, Hairy Knees Are for the Beach, Not the Office. TODAY’S business workplace is not a pretty sight. No, I’m not referring to wildly overinflated C.E.O. pay, although I could be. Nor am I referring to the empty desks caused by outsourcing, although I could be referring to that, too. I am not even referring to modern cubicles and their pitiful fiberboard walls. I am referring to the men (not the women) in those cubicles.</br></br>To put it as boldly as it needs to be put, men at work these days all too often dress like total slobs, and it hurts the eyes, the spirit and, I suspect, the bottom line.</br></br>Sometimes, I get a clue of this when I go to see my lawyer and am shocked to find that men who should be wearing suits — to keep up their propriety and their sense of dignity — are wearing casual jeans and short-sleeved shirts instead. I get a whiff of it when I appear on television and see employees of major networks dressed in casual slacks and sport shirts with no ties.</br></br>But the most stunning blow came a few weeks ago when I did an industrial film on a super-advanced video-conferencing system made by a very large, very successful high-tech company. The men who worked at the company’s campus in Oregon were uniformly smart and uniformly courteous, but they dressed like children at summer camp — cut-off jeans, shorts, T-shirts and sandals without socks. I asked if this was some special dress-down day and they all looked at me as if I were insane. “No,” they said. "This is how we dress.”</br></br>I see it in airports and on airplanes. I see it when young people come to me for interviews for a summer job dressed in baggies — gangsta-style long shorts with some of their butts showing — and have no idea that they are doing anything wrong.

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Is It a Depression--Or Just a Bad Recession: Recession Analysis. Is the United States economy sinking into a bottomless pit? Or is the current recession just another business cycle, alike in kind to its postwar predecessors — if worse in degree? _</br></br>The quandary is generating a controversy among the country’s leading economists. The answer seems to depend heavily on how analysts view the past, particularly the recent past.</br></br>For those who think the Arab oil embargo in the fall of 1973 marked the start of a long recession, the deepening slide now underway is a weird and worrisome business cycle which bears little resemblance to the milder recessions of the post World War II period.</br></br>Although most of the economists who adhere to this view say they expect business to pick up later this year, they are shaky about the forecast. And some analysts, Arthur Okun of the Brookings Institution for one, are exceedingly worried.</br></br>“It becomes ever more likely that the history books will record this episode as a depression rather than a recession,” he said in recent Congressional testimony.

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Letters to the Editor: Inflation: The Bungled Battle Congress' No. 1 Task Wilson on the Pardon One Man, One Vote' Mrs. Luce's Compassion. GIiORGE KATONASIDMiY WIiINTRAl IBGI iORGl i M. LAWSONFRI iDERICK ENG IISHNATHAN C. BEI I II New York limes (1923-Current file); Sep 21, 1974;</br></br>Pg.-8-----------------------------—_______________—.... ...............................................</br></br>The Ford Administration seems to be pursuing the same course in the fight against inflation which has failed to produce any slowdown or decrease during the past five years. In any case, it does not fight directly against inflation but rather hopes to affect inflation by slowing the economy and causing thereby a deflation or controlled recession.</br></br>Since the major cause of the latest inflationary spiral is the increase in the price of oil, would that not appear to,be the point of attack? An increase in the price of oil is magnified hun« dredfold by the time the end-product reaches the consumer. If the oil price could be rolled back to the 1970 prices, it would be possible to roll back all prices and wages, as well as interest rates.</br></br>A price rollback of crude oil could be accomplished either by"direct Government subsidy to the oil importer-refiners or tax-deduction benefits. This Government expense could be paid for by a tax increase on incomes above $10,000, a tax cost that would be negligible compared to the cost of every citizen which the continuing inflation involves.

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Treasury Prices Fall in Light Day: Traders Awaiting Jobs Report for June. Prices of Treasury securities dipped and interest rates rose slightly in fairly light trading yesterday, as dealers positioned themselves for the release this morning of June employment data.</br></br>The traders pushed prices lower early in the session in reaction to a report in The Wall Street Journal that the Bush Administration was considering whether to impose a sales tax on a wide range of securities, including stocks and bonds. Administration officials said yesterday that the odds were against such a tax.</br></br>Adding to the decline was news that automobile sales for the last 10 days of June were far stronger than expected.</br></br>Automobile makers sold eight million cars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate during the period, the highest level since the middle of January.</br></br>"The numbers were much stronger than anticipated, and were the first sign of consumer strength in some time, but I would be cautious in assuming this means that consumer spending is about to rise,” said Michael J. Moran, the chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc.

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Can U.S. Academies Go Over Well in India?. TALK about outsourcing: Americans are getting used to having their computer problems solved by a soothing, competent telephone voice all the way from India. Now India, in turn, may receive ex-. pertise from another gigantic world • powerhouse — the ubiquitous International Management Group.</br></br>The 200-acre sports academy in Bradenton, Fla., which has harbored Seles and Courier, Kournikova and ' Adu, may now be replicated in Hyderabad.</br></br>It seems only fair. Indians are ; guiding befuddled Americans through the mysteries of laptops and printers. Now In a grand gesture of hands across the sea, Americans - may teach Indians techniques for coaching and competing.</br></br>'. ‘ India produces thousands of pa-■ tient techies from Bangalore. We ' lend them Nick Bollettleri from Bra-' denton. Isn’t fair trade wonderful? Many Indians, with their delightful self-mocking sense of humor, bring - up their dismal level in world sports.</br></br>leged to accompany my wife, Mari-! anne, on one of her dozen volunteer trips to a child-care agency in what she calls her second home, Pune, India.

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G.M. BENEFIT FUND NEAR EXHAUSTION: Supplements to State's Aid for Jobless to End in May With 70,000 Eligible. DETROIT, April 11—The General Motors Corporation said today that its supplemental unemployment benefits fund to pay jobless benefits to Iaid-off workers would be exhausted the first week of May.</br></br>The fund, together with state unemployment benefits, assures a laid-off worker of 95_ner cent of his take-home pay. The fund is built up by money paid into it -by the company-for each man-hour worked.'</br></br>But a G.M. spokesman said that, since January, 1974,, approximately $356-million- had been paid out of the fund at the rate of almost $10-million a week, -r -....-</br></br>The Chrysler Corporation’s fund has paid out $110-million since January, 1974, and was exhausted today, with some 42.000 hourly workers stiU on indefinite layoff. These workers will now be eligible for only state unemployment benefits.</br></br>The fourth domestic auto maker, the American Motors Corporation, has had few layoffs. It is now carrying only 730 workers on indefinite layoff, down from 780 last week.

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Exit Campeau, Exit Leverage, And the Hunt for a Safe Deal Is On. THERE is near unanimity, it seems, in the lessons of the Campeau Corporation. After last week’s bankruptcy filing by two of the company’s department store subsidiaries, it is almost as hard to find anyone who has not sworn off greed and excess as it was to find anyone who admitted losing money in the stock market crash of 1987.</br></br>That the retailing giant’s financial demise should coincide so neatly with the arrival of the 1990’s provides an especially poignant turning point. Chastened Wall Street deal-makers and bank lenders, brimming with New Year’s resolve, are making determined noises about the importance of financial discipline and the dangers of over-indebtedness. With so many highly leveraged companies teetering on the same brink as Campeau, it has even become fashionable in some circles to admit that junk bonds, which were used to finance so many takeovers and other megadeals, are indeed junk.</br></br>Refreshing as such contrition may be, longtime observers of the financial world doubt that Campeau’s fall marks the end of this kind of debacle. The pressures that led Wall Street firms to risk their own money in deals like Campeau’s takeover of Federated Department Stores and Allied Stores, and that spurred banks to join in by lending billions of dollars in the face of suspiciously rosy projections, have not disappeared.</br></br>As long as the money keeps flowing, excesses will continue to occur. They will just emerge in different spots in the economic system.</br></br>“These things tend to run in cycles,” said Samuel L. Hayes 3d, a Harvard Business School professor who specializes in investment banking.

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Raise the Pay Of Academic Peons. IN November, the voters of Nassau County will be asked to accept or reject a reallocation of weighted votes assigned to the members of its Board of Supervisors based not on population but on a distribution of “voting power” worked out by a computer.</br></br>Weighted voting in local government has long been in disrepute, and after the United States Supreme Court’s "one man, one vote” decision in 1964, it was abandoned by every state except New York. Even in New York, all the larger counties turned to representative county legislatures elected from equal population districts or a combination of single- and multi-member districts.</br></br>In 1967 the New York State Court of Appeals held weighted voting to be constitutional, provided a county could show through computer analysis that a supervisor’s share of the “voting power” was proportional to his unit’s share of the population. A unit’s “voting power” was equated to the number of times a change of its vote on an issue would change the final outcome of the board vote, based on a random fall of yes /no votes.</br></br>Under this ruling, votes were to be weighted not on the basis of population but according to a computerized analysis of the mathematical probabilities in an infinite number of random votes. However, the unit’s percentage of the total vote was to be approximately equal to its percentage of the total population.</br></br>This complex system, derived from the case of Reynolds v. Sims, sought to express in terms of percentages the discrepancy between “an ideal district and an actual voting district” established by a local plan. Under the Federal court's decision, discrepancies were to be expressed as percentages of deviation from the ideal for each district based on that district’s population.

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29.74 Rise Puts Dow At 1,853.03: Analysts Say Surge Reflects Hope on Rates Dow Soars By 29.74. The stock market continued its recent surge yesterday as blue-chip issues lifted the Dow Jones industrial average by more than 29 points, to within 3 points of its highest close.</br></br>In the last three trading days, the Dow has risen nearly 78 points. With yesterday’s 29.74-point climb, it closed at 1,853.03, ending slightly below its record close of 1,855.90 last April 21.</br></br>Analysts said that the market continued to follow bond prices, reflecting investor optimism over the direction of interest rates in the near term.</br></br>Volume on the New York Stock Exchange shrank to 121.2 million shares yesterday from 130.2 million shares on Friday as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by 1,198 to 485.</br></br>The markets were closed Monday for Memorial Day. Much of yesterday’s trading volume came in the last half-hour as a flurry of stock index futures trading spilled over into the underlying stocks.

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The Vocabulary of Snacking, Lightly Sweetened. The use of Snickers language on a taxi. The company is hoping its light approach will spur purchases in penny-pinching times.</br></br>IT was only a year or so ago that the concept of affordable luxury meant a Coach bag, Tiffany bauble or Starbucks latte. Since then, the recession lias defined splurging downward to the price level of a can of soda, pack of gum or candy bar.</br></br>That is why many marketers of those prosaic products are still spending like it’s 2007 when it comes to advertising. For instance, both Coca-Cola and Pep-si-Cola recently came out with new campaigns, as did several gum brands, among them Ice Breakers.</br></br>Another case in point is the confectionery behemoth Mars, which is introducing a major campaign for its best-selling candy brand, Snickers, that is centered on a make-believe language called Snacklish. .</br></br>“Our competitive set is moving ahead, so we can’t afford to pull back,’’ said Carole Walker, vice president for integrated marketing communications at the Mars Snackfood U.S. division of Mars in Hackettstown, N.j.

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Increase in Money Lifts Rates: Fed Discount Inaction Cited. Short-term interest rates rose more than a quarter of a percentatge point and long-term bond prices fell sharply yesterday as credit market participants decided that the Federal Reserve was not acting to reduce interest rates as quickly as they expected.</br></br>The increase in short-term and longterm interest rates gained momentum late in the day after the Fed announced a larger-than-expected $3.2 billion increase in the nation's basic money supply for the week ended Oct. 13. Some analysts attributed the increase to a buildup in checking accounts from “All Savers”certificates that matured early in the month but were not immediatly reinvested.</br></br>Traders and economists also said that interest rates rose because the Federal Reserve did not announce a reduction in the the discount rate it charges on loans to financial institutions. That rate is now 9Vi percent. Analysts Not Ignoring Data</br></br>Although Fed officials have repeatedly said that changes in the kinds of accounts offered by banks and thrift institutions are distorting the basic money supply measure, analysts are not completely ignoring the weekly data.</br></br>“The numbers suggest that there is no room for another discount rate cut, just yet,” said William O. Sullivan Jr., a senior vice president at the Bank of New York. “The Fed has not aban- doned the monetary aggregates in their entirety, and may be waiting to see what effect the recent rate reductions have on consumer psychology and the money supply.”

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How Far To Swing The Ax?: Washington Wants to Cut Taxes. Just How Remains Under Wraps. Swinging the Tax Ax. Washington is still trying to shift from a mentality shaped by deficits lo one of affluence In tax policy. the problem is how to divide a big. rich pie resulting from budget surpluses 1 he President and olher Democrats want a modest package of tax breaks carefully constructed to reach those they consider most in need</br></br>Before battling ihe Demounts, the Republicans ci>ul(i lace political gridlock will nn their own ranks because some inodeii-iles do not support across It ip honirl cuts</br></br>FOR the better part of two decades, the Federal budget deficit imposed tight limits on debates over tax policy. Republicans could not indulge their political and ideological desire to return more money to the people. Democrats were forced to support tax increases to maintain spending for the social programs they championed.</br></br>Now, with the advent of large and growing budget surpluses, the terms of the debate are being rewritten. No longer shackled by the demands of austerity. Republicans are pressing for a big tax cut this year, although they remain divided over the form and the size. The Clinton Administration is trying to thwart the Republican plan by demanding that Social Security and Medicare get first dibs on the surplus.</br></br>While the political fight this year and probably into the 2000 elections will center on thai shorthand — lax cuts versus saving Social Security — there is also a growing focus on another, older and more fundamental issue. Should lax policy focus simply on raising the revenue needed to pay for the activities of Government? Or can the tax code be used as an effective instrument to address the nation's social and economic ills?

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BURNS SUGGESTS PAY-PRICE BOARD TO CUT INFLATION: Federal Reserve Chairman Praises Nixon Actions but Asks 'Further Steps' NO 'GUIDEPOSTS' LISTED Budget and Money Policies Held Inadequate in Face of 'Excessive' Raises Burns Suggests Pay-Price Board to Cut Inflation. WASHINGTON, Dec. 7 — Arthur F. Burns, chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, suggested today 11 possible additional steps that might be taken by the Government to help slow inflation as the economy expands.</br></br>These ranged up to compulsory arbitration of some major labor disputes and a new “price and wage review board” that would not have mandatory powers.</br></br>Mr. Burns, whose agency governs the growth of the nation’s money and credit, was not specific on monetary policy. He said it should be “sufficiently stimulative to assure a satisfactory recovery in production and employment,” but he warned against “excessive” monetary expansion in an effort to regain “our full output potential overnight.”</br></br>Action on Oil Praised In a speech that covered a number of separate topics, Mr. Burns praised President Nixon’s actions last week aimed at checking the rise in oil prices and construction wages.</br></br>But he said that “further steps” might be necessary at a time when the Government’s basic policies (budget, or fiscal, policy and monetary policy) “are inadequate for dealing with the sources of inflation that are plaguing us now —that is, pressures on costs arising from excessive wage increases.”

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Jobless Claims Surged At Start of December: Jobless Claims Rise Sharply. WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 — In a sign of deepening job-market distress, first-time claims for state unemployment insurance leaped 79,000 in the week ended Dec. 7 to match the highest level since March, the Labor Department reported today.</br></br>The increase, to 493,000, was markedly greater than most analysts had expected and tended to support predictions that the December jobless rate, to be reported on Jan. 3, will hit 7 “Things are deteriorating,” declared Alan C. Lerner, a senior economist at the Bankers Trust Company, also noting that the number of people collecting benefits under slate programs jumped 763,100 in the week ended Nov. 30, to 3,546,100.</br></br>Before seasonal adjustment, initial claims totaled 613,500 for the Dec. 7 week, up 176,800 from the preceding week, when the Thanksgiving holiday closed unemployment offices and cut applications.</br></br>While the initial-claims figure is widely watched as a sign of what is to come — it is one of the 11 components of the Government’s index of leading indicators — it is prone to erratic week-Lo-week swings, particularly around holidays. This has caused analysts to favor a four-week average in evaluating claims figures.</br></br>as reported for the week ended Nov. 9, which happened to be the highest since the recessionary depths of last March. In March, claims briefly soared to 540,000, the most in more than eight years. Separately, the October trade figures from the Commerce Department provided a rare bit of upbeat economic news, showing that American companies exported a record $36.7 billion of merchandise that month, $1.4 billion more than in September. Imports rose a sizable $1.2 billion, which some analysts said was more likely a sign of delayed ordering of holiday goods than an indication of a rebounding domestic economy. Over all, the trade deficit for October was $6.7 billion, down slightly from September’s $6.9 billion. |Page D4.j Worries About J obs

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Nagging Inflation Fears Push Bond Prices Lower. Prices of United States Treasury securities reversed early gains yesterday amid the nagging fears of inflation and concern about the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next move to raise short-term interest rates. The selloff in bonds pushed interest rates to the highest level since June.</br></br>Follow-through strength from overseas bond markets and comments by a Federal Reserve governor, Lawrence B. Lindsey, in a Baltimore speech to the Commercial Finance Association Monday night provided the market with an early lift. But the selling began to pick up steam 'Estimated dally average, source Telerate "Municipal Bond Index, The Bond Buyer Salomon Brothers end Telerale lor Treasury 's bellwether bonds, notes and bills</br></br>The 30-year Treasury declined by. j6/3j of a percentage point, to 9210/32, as the yield, which moves in the oppo-! site direction, rose to 6.86 percent, from 6.79 percent on Monday. Rates on short-term maturities were also; higher, with the three-month bill at' 3.54 percent, up from 3.50 percent, and the six-month bill at 3.77 percent, up from 3.73 percent.</br></br>Intermediate maturities like 3-year! and 10-year notes also felt the brunt' of selling. The yield on a 3-year note rose seven basis points, to 5.31 percent, and the 10-year rose eight basis points to 6.39 percent. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. ‘Three Something’</br></br>“Not many people took it serious,” David A. Ader, managing analyst at Technical Data in Boston, said. “But apparently some took it as a sign that the Fed would not tighten again.” Soon after the market moved on reports of Mr. Lindsey’s remarks, a spokesman for the Federal Reserve Board in Washington said that the comment was not intended as a forecast. It was meant to be humorous,

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Eastern Air's Special Troubles: Line Is Jolted By Debt, Stiff Competition Eastern Air's Troubles: Stiff Competition, Debt Load Factor Low 'Shuttle Intrusion' Volume Declines AT A GLANCE Eastern Air Lines. Jolted by last year’s recession and burdened by debt, Eastern Air Lines Inc. has been staggered further by powerful competition from other lines.</br></br>Under Frank Borman, its ex-astronaut president, chairman and chief executive, Eastern itself has been competing vigorously: last year it announced low fares to gain passengers in the New York-to-Califomia market — and spurred a price war.</br></br>nental business by giving shuttle pas. sengers coupons good for flights to California at half price. And Eastern is considering a merger with debt-ridden Brantff International, which could give it a leg up on Latin American routes, where Braniff has been strong.</br></br>But Eastern’s overall performance has been "disappointing,” Mr. Borman conceded, solemn-faced, in an interview yesterday.</br></br>For the first nine months of 1980, the airline lost $35 million, compared with earnings of $42 million in the 1979 period. The red ink included an operating loss of $5 million, on operating revenues of $2.56 billion, and reflected the heavy cost of financing equipment. Some analysts predict that Eastern’s 1980 loss will exceed $50 million, compared with a 1979 net of $57.6 million.

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Interest Rates Move Upward: Money Supply Surge Feared. Short- and long-term interest rates rose yesterday as the credit markets seemed to ignore the good news lately and instead focused on the bad news that is expected in coming weeks.</br></br>By the end of the day, rates on three-and six-month Treasury bills had increased about a quarter of a percentage point, to 12.70 percent and 12.80 percent, respectively, while the price of the 14 percent Treasury bonds due in 2011 fell a point, to 103%, to yield 13.47 percent.</br></br>Besides a lack of investor buying, the reason most often cited for the market’s poor performance has been the fear that money supply growth will increase rapidly in coming weeks. Such predictions lead to higher interest rates because analysts assume the Federal Reserve will respond to rapid money growth by making bank reserves scarcer, thereby pushing up short-term rates.</br></br>End-of-Quarter Cash Buildup Seen “If it wasn’t for the fear of April money supply growth, this market would be higher by points and points,” said Giles Brophy, president of Refco Partners, a government securities firm. Rapid money supply growth might be most evident in the first week of April, economists said, because of the usual end-of-quarter buildup in cash at large corporations.</br></br>The level of checking accounts, which is the primary component of the basic money supply, might also be swollen more than the Fed’s seasonal adjustments allow for by the payment of tax refunds to individuals at the same time as others who owe tax to the Government build up their accounts before making payment on April 15. These factors are not adequately compensated for by the Fed’s seasonal adjustments, economists said.

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Apparel Suppliers Allege Retail Payment Squeeze: Suppliers Allege Retail Squeeze Sharing Ad Expenses. Seventh Avenue apparel companies are complaining that their relationships with retailers are deteriorating as a result of the economic pressures stemming from the current recession.</br></br>Small- to medium-sized manufacturers of clothing and many other consumer goods say retailers are paying their bills behind schedule, by as much as 60 days. The manufacturers also say retailers are often paying less than the full amount invoiced and sometimes extracting unfair discounts. Such complaints have long been common, but industry observers say that the situation has worsened in recent months.</br></br>Retailers flatly denied the allegations. "We are paying on time,” declared Helen Galland, president of Bon-wit Teller. A spokesman for Associated Dry Goods, a major retailer, which owns Lord and Taylor, said, "We’re not engaging in any slowdown.” However, the retailers agreed that they had heard of instances of slow payment by other stores.</br></br>"The retailers are stepping all over the manufacturers,” said Laurie Lieb-erman, an official at the New York Contemporary Credit Club, whose membership comes from banks, factors and accounting firms that serve the garment industry. "A lot of manufacturers have lost control.”</br></br>Seventh Avenue sources say that retailers, hit by rising interest rates and sagging consumer demand, are holding onto their funds as long as possible. While the retailers’ behavior is not held accountable for bankruptcies among manufacturers, apparel companies, banks and factors say that it has made a bad economic situation worse.

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BUSINESS LOANS RISE 121 MILLION: N.Y. Reserve Bank Shows Reversal of Previous Week Credit Kept in Bounds. A 5121,000,000 rise in commercial and industrial loans was recorded last week by leading New York City banks, according to a statement issued yesterday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.</br></br>There was no change in the Treasury's gold stock. This was the seventh successive week that it has remained level at</br></br>Free reserves, which are a key indicator of the degree of monetary ease, showed only a small change in the last week. The nation’s member banks average 5353,000,000 in free reserves on a daily basis, while actual free reserves on Wednesday were 5536,000,000. The revised statement for the previous week showed 5310,000,000 in free reserves on the average and 5128,000,000 on Wednesday.</br></br>But while the figures indicate that the nation’s money managers are continuing to pursue a relatively easy credit policy, they appear to be moving in the direction of restraint. Free reserves averaged more than</br></br>Federal Reserves acted to hold down the amount of credit available in the latest statement last week. It sold more than 5189.000. 000 in Government securities from its portfolio. This had the effect of reducing the amount of lendable funds in the banking system.

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U.S. Auto Makers Get a Lift: Dollar, Rates Contribute To Optimism U.S. Auto Makers Get a Lift. DETROIT, Nov. 8 — When the stock market collapsed last month, American auto manufacturers braced themselves for a sharp downturn in their already sliding sales.</br></br>But with the exception of expensive European models, that plunge has yet to materialize in the United States. Moreover, developments on the economic front — namely dropping interest rates and the falling dollar — have given the Big Three auto companies reason to hope that sales will continue at a healthy level.</br></br>Until last week, some analysts were predicting that a stock market-triggered cutback in consumer spending would cause auto purchases in the United Stales to fall to a six-million-unit annual level. Now, with dropping interest rates enabling consumers to borrow more, there is more optimism that sales will continue at their current 9.3 million rate. Effect of Dollar’s Sharp Drop</br></br>Equally if not more important for the American car industry — including components suppliers — is the sharp drop in the dollar against the yen and European currencies, especially the West German mark.</br></br>For General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, stronger European and Japanese'currencies mean that Detroit’s principal competitors must either raise prices in this country and risk losing sales, or hold the line on prices at the expense of profits.

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G.O.P. in House Opposes Budget Of Senate Panel: Social Security Is Key -- Housing Bill Gains G.O.P. in House Opposes Budget of Senate Panel. WASHINGTON, May 11 — House Republican leaders today rejected the budget plan endorsed by President Reagan and the Senate Budget Committee, objecting to proposed changes in the Social Security system and to a major tax increase in a recession.</br></br>Specifically, they rejected the Senate Republican proposal to commit Congress to find $40 billion in savings in Social Security outlays before a bipartisan study commission makes its recommendations at year’s end. The House Republicans also said they regarded proposals to raise taxes by $95 billion as excessive and sought a larger reduction in military spending than the Senate committee adopted.</br></br>In another setback for the Reagan Administration, a large number of Republicans defied their leaders as the House approved a $1 billion emergency appropriation to provide mortgage subsidies to revive the depressed housing industry. [Page A23.]</br></br>The House Republican leaders’ objections to the Senate Republican-White House plan for the budget for the 1983 fiscal year underscored the different political realities that confront House members, who must run for re-election every two years, and Senators, who run every six years. The elections this fall make the House Republicans more fearful than their Senate colleagues of the Democratic intention to exploit Social Security as a major issue.</br></br>“You’ve got to give guys who have to run every two years some running room,’’ said Robert H. Michel of Illinois, the House Republican leader, who described the opposition of House Republicans to the Senate plan in an interview.

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Starting the Year in Secondary Stocks: E=MC2 it's not, but the 'January Effect' seldom fails to work for those who buy cheap equities.. ‘When you’re making important investment decisions, the last thing you want to worry about is the quality of service you’re getting from your broker. Get quality services you can count on when you trade at Schwab.”</br></br>Instant executions on most market orders. Often we can confirm your order while you’re still on the phone.</br></br>V* Quick access to Investment Information, including stock quotes and company profiles, through your personal computer. You can even enter your own trades! through your Schv/ab discount brokerage account. It’s just as easy as buying stocks. (Prospectuses available)</br></br>HEW YORK, NY: Yfarid Trade Center Suits 2469.10548 RED BANK, HJ: 102 Vt Front St, 07701 ------------------------------ PARMWSLHJ: 12Route 17North.07652</br></br>IT’S probably not in the same league with the theory of relativity or the discovery of electricity, but the stock market’s “January Effect” has spurred dozens of studies. According to the research, the stocks of companies with lower-than-average market capitalizations should outperform the stocks of larger companies this month.

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Congress Battles on Benefits, As the Unemployed Worry: Impasse Leaves Thousands Without a Net. Margaret Riley, yesterday outside tile unemployment office in the Chicago suburb of Harvey, 111., considered the thousands about to lose unemployment benefits. “How are you supposed to pay your bills?” she asked.</br></br>“You can’t depend on the government all the time,” said Marion Marganski, left, a mechanic unemployed for two years. William Woods, laid off in October, said the benefits dispute “couldn’t have come at a worse time.” . HARVEY, III, Dec. 27 — Standing in the cold outside the local unemployment office, 44-year-old Margaret Riley waited for her ride this morning, having just applied for benefits at the crowded Illinois Department of Employment Security In this south suburb of Chicago.</br></br>Aware that for more than 750,000 Americans federal unemployment benefits run out on Saturday, Ms. Riley considered herself one of the lucky ones. She shook her head at the difficulty many have finding work In a still-slumping economy and the realities of life for the unemployed, some of whom were about to have their only source of income — an unemployment check — run out.</br></br>haust their benefits, at least temporarily, on Saturday because of a partisan standoff In Congress over the size and scope of an extension. Laid-off workers typically are provided with 26 weeks of unemployment benefits from the state and the federal government has routinely extended unemployment benefits In harsh economic times.</br></br>But an extension authorized by Congress earlier this year expires on Dec. 28 and the House and Senate failed to reach an agreement over continuing benefits before adjourning in late November.

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THE NATION: Market in Motion Mission for Truman Harbor Troubles Toward Agreement Vote for Butler 'Deep Gratitude' Ferment in C.P. Three Factions Exit Ross On the Hill. Census Bureau’s electric chart, which indicates estimated -population, reached the Census Bureau in 1946 and 1955. The high and low versions of the 1955 pro- 170,000,000 Friday morning. Projections shown in -first chart were made by jection are based on different assumptions by statisticians as to birthrate.</br></br>Since 1953, the general trend of the stock market has been strongly upward. Here are The New York Times’ average highs for fifty combined stocks for each of the last four years:</br></br>For the last few months, however, the market has been fidgety. In January, prices on the New York Stock Exchange registered sharp losses. The decline continued into February; the index for the first week showed a loss of 7.70 points, biggest in three years.</br></br>Then last Monday, stocks sank to their lowest levels since November, 1955. On Tuesday, a brief rally fizzled out. On Wednesday, the market sprang back in what brokers called a traditional “reaction.” The market wound up the week so strong that all of the week’s earlier setback was regained.</br></br>The recovery was credited mostly to a statement, released Friday, by Secretary of the Treasury George lit. Humphrey. Prosperity, he told a House subcommittee, can continue “for a long period of time” if Government exercises restraint in spending. “There are no signs of a recession,” he said.

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A Marxist Look at the Dollar Crisis: A Look at the Past What to Do Next. The current crisis of the United States dollar is often explained by the large dependence of the United States on imported oil, by relatively high rates of internal price inflation and by faster growth of the American economy in recent years as compared with the performance of other developed market economies.</br></br>The United States Is now Indeed Importing close to half of its supply of pe-troleum and petroleum products. But the dependence of Japan and West Germany on foreign oil is twice as large and more fundamental. Yet both countries have a comfortable overall trade surplus.</br></br>Wholesale prices In the United States have been increasing in recent months somewhat faster than in West Germany or Japan but slower than in other countries such as Britain, France or I taly.</br></br>Over a longer time period—the 1960’s and 1970’s as a whole—the relative increase in American prices has not been higher than in either West Germany or Japan. Yet the competitive position of United States goods in world trade has been deteriorating not just recently but continuously over the last 30 years.</br></br>In 1948 the share of the United States in world exports was as high as 22 percent. It decreased to 15 percent In 1965 and to 11 percent in 1977. The American share of world imports increased from 11 percent in 1948 to 12 percent In 1965 and 14 percent in 1977.

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KEYSERLING HITS INFLATION FIGHT: Economist, in Study Group Report, Says U. S. Steps Are Retarding Growth. WASHINGTON, July 5--An economic study group declared today that the Administration's •'spurious" campaign against inflation had retarded achievement of "our most profound national objectives" while actually making inflation worse.</br></br>The report, by the Conference on Economic Progress, was prepared by Leon H. Key-serling. chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under former President Harry S. Tru-j man. The conference is a privately supported organization I of labor, farm apd business! leaders.</br></br>it stressed a basic theme long advocated by Mr. Keyser-ling—that the "new inflation” of 1955-57 was caused or ag-| gravated by a deficient rate of demand and economic growth, rather than by the classic reason of excessive demand.</br></br>The report's chief recommendation was for a reversal of the Administration's policies of tight money and restraint on Government spending. It called for a "much bigger Federal budget and a much more liberal monetary policy than we now have."</br></br>It said the Administration was pursuing again the policies "which converted the recovery, of 1955 into the stagnation of 1956 and 1957 and the recession of 1957-58." It warned that these policies might mean a rate of economic growth in the 1958-64 period as "deficient" as' the 2.4 per cent annual rate of] 1953-59. A 5 per cent growth rate is “what we need and can readily achieve,” the report “The effort to substitute stability for progress has achieved! neither," Mr. Keyserling asserted. "The upside-down poli-j nes. which have aggravated the wasteful idleness of our resources. have diluted the value of the dollar by diluting the strength of the nation.”

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Low Rates: A Limited Blessing: Pay Gains Needed to Ballast Cheap Loans Low Interest Rates: Limited Blessing. With government spending rejected as a stimulus, Americans have become dependent on low interest rates to revive the economy — and this has helped. But low rates alone cannot expand the economy any faster than the slow pace at which it is now growing.</br></br>Housing and car sales have risen as a result of low rates, which make financing more affordable, and retail sales have also benefited. But a wide range of economists, executives and industry experts say that low rates cannot alone squeeze much more out of these key industries, unless obstacles like wage stagnation and the high prices of some homes are overcome. ‘In the Very Long Run’ “It will be very hard to get the economy to grow more rapidly than it now is growing,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Data Resources Inc., a consulting and data-gathering company. “Can law interest rates generate enough jobs and income to offset the work lost in defense and other industries? Maybe they qan in the very long run, but not now.”</br></br>Previous recoveries since World War II have benefited from incentives besides low rates, including strong export growth, a rush by companies to replenish inventories and rising employment as business picks up. For various reasons, all these have been absent lately.</br></br>Of course, if economic growth stalls — as it seems to have done in the second quarter, when the growth rate fell to less than 1 percent — Congress could revive economic-stimulus measures, as President Clinton had requested at the outset of his term.</br></br>“If it were not for the political environment, the ideal scenario would be a strong stimulus, and then once the economy was back on track — growing at 3.5 percent a year or more — then serious deficit reduction,” said Labor Secretary Robert B. Reich. “But this is not a political climate in which John Maynard Keynes would flourish." Keynesian theory holds that in a weak economy, with idle workers, the Government should spend to put them back to work and reduce unemployment, which is now reported at 7 percent of the labor force. But under such assumptions, the spending must

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BUYING BY FUNDS BACK TO NORMAL: Managers Still Watching Market Very Closely BUYING BY FUNDS BACK TO NORMAL. Selective buying on the market grew more selective. The land-office business they had done in selling shares on Tuesday and Thursday turned quiet. In fact, the mutual fund business was just about back to normal when the stock market closed yesterday.</br></br>Even the bid and asked prices for fund shares were back on schedule, something that was unheard of Monday and Tuesday nights. The National Quotation Bureau, which collects and releases prices for the National Association of Securities Dealers, reported only about one-third of the usual number of funds earlier in the week. The tables were sprinkled with “NA” — not available. By Thursday night, the list was once again complete, though late. i</br></br>A spot check of mutual fund; managers in the New Yorki area yesterday brought out the general comments like we’re still in the market, but we're watching very closely before buying,” or "the bargains just aren't there today.”</br></br>As far as sales of fund shares are concerned, the slowdown appeared significant, although sales were above those of an average day for the most part.</br></br>A spokesman for Investors Planning Corporation of America, one of the largest selling groups, said that cash sales of shares ranged between $400,- 000 and $500,000 each day on Tuesday and Thursday. He estimated yesterday’s sales at "between $200,000 and $250,000.”

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A Car-Sales Indicator Suggests a Recession Is Near or Already Here. periods, compared with the 12-month period ended a year earlier, O Sept. 70 ■■ ■■ -2.9% 9 months earlier adjusted lor inllation in the products and services sold by the dealers. In 0 Apr. 74 ■■ ■MM-3.2 5 months earlier • Intlation adjustment is based on a weighted aveiage ot Consumer Price Index changes tor prices ol new cars, used cars, auto parts and auto repairs and service.</br></br>periods, compared with the 12-month period ended a year earlier, O Sept. 70 ■■ ■■ -2.9% 9 months earlier adjusted lor inllation in the products and services sold by the dealers. In 0 Apr. 74 ■■ ■MM-3.2 5 months earlier • Intlation adjustment is based on a weighted aveiage ot Consumer Price Index changes tor prices ol new cars, used cars, auto parts and auto repairs and service.</br></br>Sour cos: Census Bureau, Bureau ol Labor Slolislics; National Bureau ol Economic Research Ttio New Yortaimcs</br></br>Sour cos: Census Bureau, Bureau ol Labor Slolislics; National Bureau ol Economic Research Ttio New Yortaimcs</br></br>IF things are miserable tor America's new-car dealers, can a recession be averted? History says It cannot and suggests a downturn may have already begun.</br></br>IF things are miserable tor America's new-car dealers, can a recession be averted? History says It cannot and suggests a downturn may have already begun.</br></br>The accompanying chart shows the rate of change in sales by new-car dealers, comparing the most recent 12 months with the 12 months before that ; it is adjusted for inflation. The rule — unveiled here for the first time — is that if the figure is down 2 percent or more, a recession is either under way or set to begin within a few months.</br></br>The accompanying chart shows the rate of change in sales by new-car dealers, comparing the most recent 12 months with the 12 months before that ; it is adjusted for inflation. The rule — unveiled here for the first time — is that if the figure is down 2 percent or more, a recession is either under way or set to begin within a few months.</br></br>The figure fell to a negative 2.4 percent when June sales figures were released last week by the Census Bureau.</br></br>The figure fell to a negative 2.4 percent when June sales figures were released last week by the Census Bureau.

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STOCK MOVEMENT IS CIRCUMSCRIBED: Oil Issues With Williston Basin Ties Pushed Ahead Sharply -- Others Move Fractions COMPOSITE AVERAGE UP But Index Rises Only 0.12 Point in Thin-Spread Deals Gains Outnumbering Falls. The stock market experienced difficulty again yesterday In doing more than holding within a re* stricted area. Certain oil issues, particularly tliose with some interests in the new Williston Basin, of the United States and Canadian Northwest and stocks of non-producers with holdings in the area were pushed ah|^d sharply. Other</br></br>Selected gains in the morning gave way to some shading of prices in the afternoon which left the composite rate higher by only 0.12 point at the close in terms of The New York Times index. Volume on the Stock Exchange was the smallest since the first session of the year as transactions fell off to 1,170,000 shares from 1,310,000 shares on Wednesday.</br></br>Dealings Are Spread Thin Trading continued to he spread thin with transfers in 1,095 in<h-vidual stocks. At the close, 438 showed additions, 347 losses, with 312 unchanged.</br></br>Technical factors dominated the activities of the day. The market found few news items designed to influence the course of prices. From a chartist’s point of view, the market must prove itself able</br></br>I to hold above the low rates of late December. It is the contention of the analysts that should the list level off slightly from its present position and hold stationary, the stage would be set for a return to better quotations. The professional element, however, still remains bearishly inclined and looks for little relief for at least two months.

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Small-Stock Funds Handily Beat Their Big Index Brothers: Small-Stock Funds Beat Big Index Brothers The stock picks of active fund managers are doing better these days.. In the last few years, the surest way for an investor to get the best returns in the stock market was to buy shares of the biggest blue-chip companies or the index mutual funds that track them.</br></br>Now that trend appears to be turning around. Since the end of April, mutual funds that invest in the stocks of smaller, faster-growing companies have set the pace, while the index funds are far behind.</br></br>Barring a meltdown today, the third quarter will end with roughly four out of every five mutual funds that invest in American stacks having beaten the Standard & Poor’s 500 index — the most in any quarter since 1978 and a far cry from the 1 in 10 that achieved the feat in the first quarter, according to Morningstar Inc., which evaluates mutual fund performance.</br></br>That caps a stellar six-month run for most United States stock funds. For the first time in more than a decade, domestic stock funds are likely to show double-digit returns in back-to-back quarters, according to Lipper Analytical Services, another-mutual-fund performance evaluator.</br></br>Mutual fund investors have started to notice. In a reversal of the dominant trend early this year, individuals have been pouring less new money into the giant indextracking funds in recent weeks and accelerating their purchases of mutual funds that pick stocks of smaller, faster-growing companies.

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