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Will there be an attack on the electrical grid for a major U.S. city in 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-11-30T00:00:00 | 2017-12-21T00:00:00 |
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Will a 'biohacker' create a new life form that enters the ecosystem by April 1, 2018? | 0 | no | 2016-11-30T00:00:00 | 2018-04-04T00:00:00 |
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Evidence for deviations from canonical black holes from LIGO? | 0 | no | 2016-12-02T00:00:00 | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 |
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A complete buyout of Pebble by Fitbit by end of year? | 0 | no | 2016-12-02T00:00:00 | 2017-01-01T00:00:00 |
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At last? Clinical trials of a vaccine for the common cold? | 0 | no | 2016-12-02T00:00:00 | 2018-02-04T00:00:00 |
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A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021? | 1 | yes | 2016-12-09T00:00:00 | 2020-12-19T00:00:00 |
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Image projection patent implemented in the new Nintendo Switch? | 0 | no | 2016-12-13T00:00:00 | 2017-03-09T00:00:00 |
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Prototype self-flying taxi in 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-12-13T00:00:00 | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 |
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Will Amazon award a $1M "Alexa Prize" for a chatbot in 2017? | 0 | no | Amazon has recently launched an ["Alexa Prize" competition](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize) toward developing an effective "Socialbot" that can "[Engage] customers in a conversation about popular topics such as Entertainment, Fashion, Politics, Sports, and Technology."
Twelve sponsored university teams and some number of additional teams will compete from April until November 2017, using Amazon employees, users, and judges to narrow down to finalists in August, then have a final competition with a 3-judge panel in November.
The best team will win $500K, and there is an additional $1M prize if "their socialbot achieves the grand challenge of conversing coherently and engagingly with humans on popular topics for 20 minutes."
As specified in the [FAQ](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize/faq), this is *not* a Turing test – the winning bot may be readily distinguishable from a human. It should, however, be "human like" in its ability to converse. Details of the judging procedure are in the [official rules](https://developer.amazon.com/alexaprize/contest-rules). In brief, each judge has a "red button" they can press when feel that as a user they would no longer enjoy talking to the bot. | 2016-12-13T00:00:00 | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 |
Seeing single photons: more research to come? | 1 | yes | 2016-12-22T00:00:00 | 2017-02-25T00:00:00 |
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Vacuum birefringence probably found near neutron stars: more research to come? | 1 | yes | 2016-12-22T00:00:00 | 2017-04-25T00:00:00 |
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A resurgence in interest in modified gravity vs. dark matter? | 0 | no | 2016-12-22T00:00:00 | 2017-03-01T00:00:00 |
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How will recent claims of 234 SETI signals in SDSS data be treated by the community? | 0 | no | 2016-12-22T00:00:00 | 2017-06-25T00:00:00 |
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Will 2017 be an up year from the US Stock Market? | 1 | yes | 2016-12-28T00:00:00 | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 |
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Will a human beat AlphaGo in 2017? | 0 | no | 2017-01-06T00:00:00 | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 |
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Will the Affordable Care Act be repealed before March 1, 2017? | 0 | no | 2017-01-11T00:00:00 | 2017-03-01T00:00:00 |
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Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023? | 0 | no | 2017-01-12T00:00:00 | 2023-01-01T00:00:00 |
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Will the European Parliament pass rules granting AI personhood, among other provisions? | 1 | yes | 2017-01-13T00:00:00 | 2017-02-23T00:00:00 |
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Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize? | 0 | no | 2017-01-24T00:00:00 | 2018-06-05T00:00:00 |
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Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature? | 0 | no | 2017-01-30T00:00:00 | 2020-07-18T00:00:00 |
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Higher US housing prices in 2017? | 1 | yes | 2017-02-01T00:00:00 | 2017-03-27T00:00:00 |
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Article 50 triggered by UK by end of March 2017? | 1 | yes | 2017-02-03T00:00:00 | 2017-03-30T00:00:00 |
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Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018? | 1 | yes | 2017-02-08T00:00:00 | 2018-12-20T00:00:00 |
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Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017? | 0 | no | 2017-02-11T00:00:00 | 2018-01-04T00:00:00 |
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Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019? | 0 | no | 2017-02-11T00:00:00 | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 |
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Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019? | 0 | no | 2017-02-11T00:00:00 | 2019-03-21T00:00:00 |
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Will Marine le Pen win the French presidential Election ? | 0 | no | 2017-03-09T00:00:00 | 2017-05-08T00:00:00 |
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Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020? | 0 | no | 2017-03-10T00:00:00 | 2019-12-30T00:00:00 |
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Will there be a Game of Thrones episode airing in 2017, in which Jon Snow bends the knee to Daenerys Targaryen? | 1 | yes | 2017-03-12T00:00:00 | 2017-08-27T00:00:00 |
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Any charges by end of 2017 by FBI's investigation of Russia-Trump campaign ties? | 1 | yes | 2017-03-22T00:00:00 | 2017-10-30T00:00:00 |
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Giant robot battle: is it on? | 1 | yes | 2017-03-31T00:00:00 | 2017-10-14T00:00:00 |
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LISA chosen by ESA to move forward? | 0 | no | 2017-04-19T00:00:00 | 2017-06-21T00:00:00 |
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Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis? | 1 | yes | 2017-04-19T00:00:00 | 2018-02-03T00:00:00 |
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Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC? | 0 | no | 2017-04-27T00:00:00 | 2020-05-16T00:00:00 |
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Is the giant rotting sea thing just a whale? | 1 | yes | 2017-05-13T00:00:00 | 2017-05-16T00:00:00 |
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Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019? | 1 | yes | 2017-05-17T00:00:00 | 2019-02-01T00:00:00 |
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Will a consensus explanation of the strange behavior of the star KIC 8462852 emerge this year? | 0 | no | 2017-05-20T00:00:00 | 2018-01-10T00:00:00 |
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OK, fine, can FIVE human Go masters defeat AlphaGo? | 0 | no | 2017-05-24T00:00:00 | 2017-05-26T00:00:00 |
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Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020? | 0 | no | 2017-05-29T00:00:00 | 2019-12-31T00:00:00 |
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Will the UK elections lead to an absolute majority for one party in parliament? | 0 | no | 2017-06-04T00:00:00 | 2017-06-09T00:00:00 |
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Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021? | 0 | no | 2017-06-06T00:00:00 | 2020-12-31T00:00:00 |
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Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed? | 1 | yes | 2017-06-09T00:00:00 | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 |
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Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented? | 0 | no | 2017-06-11T00:00:00 | 2020-03-29T00:00:00 |
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Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018? | 0 | no | 2017-06-19T00:00:00 | 2018-07-03T00:00:00 |
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First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018? | 0 | no | 2017-06-28T00:00:00 | 2018-09-08T00:00:00 |
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Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar? | 1 | yes | 2017-07-10T00:00:00 | 2022-12-19T00:00:00 |
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Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months? | 0 | no | 2017-07-20T00:00:00 | 2018-02-04T00:00:00 |
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Is the Metaculus prediction better than all users? | 0 | no | 2017-07-20T00:00:00 | 2018-01-12T00:00:00 |
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Will Trump (try to) fire Mueller? | 0 | no | 2017-07-21T00:00:00 | 2018-01-05T00:00:00 |
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Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence? | 0 | no | 2017-07-24T00:00:00 | 2018-12-18T00:00:00 |
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Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018? | 1 | yes | 2017-07-27T00:00:00 | 2018-08-02T00:00:00 |
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Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections? | 0 | no | 2017-08-07T00:00:00 | 2018-11-06T00:00:00 |
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Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020? | 0 | no | 2017-08-09T00:00:00 | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 |
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Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation? | 1 | yes | 2017-08-11T00:00:00 | 2018-06-15T00:00:00 |
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A jump in market volatility over the coming month? | 0 | no | 2017-08-12T00:00:00 | 2017-09-14T00:00:00 |
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Will Paul Manafort be charged with a crime by Halloween? | 1 | yes | 2017-08-13T00:00:00 | 2017-10-30T00:00:00 |
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Will 2018 be the warmest year on record? | 0 | no | 2017-08-15T00:00:00 | 2019-02-06T00:00:00 |
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Will Michael Flynn be charged with a crime by Veteran's day? | 0 | no | 2017-08-17T00:00:00 | 2017-11-12T00:00:00 |
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Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019? | 1 | yes | 2017-08-18T00:00:00 | 2018-07-01T00:00:00 |
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Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares? | 0 | no | 2017-08-19T00:00:00 | 2019-06-13T00:00:00 |
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Clear skies during totality at the Grand Tetons? | 1 | yes | 2017-08-20T00:00:00 | 2017-08-22T00:00:00 |
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Will the UN host a meeting in November to continue discussions regarding lethal autonomous weapons? | 1 | yes | Kinetic lethal autonomous offensive weapons systems (KLAOWS) are a potential new stage in global armaments and warfare, as well as a new potential weapon of mass destruction.
Many current weapons systems, such as military drones, are moving toward autonomy, and autonomous ["swarms" of aircraft have been tested.](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38569027) Meanwhile non-military drone technology continues with highly capable drones potentially equipped with facial recognition (and potentially [armable](http://www.newsweek.com/isis-using-drones-rigged-munitions-attack-advancing-forces-raqqa-628955)) and other narrow AI capabilities becoming cheaper and more effective.
There is significant concern about an arms race in these weapons developing. An [open letter](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter-autonomous-weapons/) coordinated by the Future of Life Institute and signed by > 3000 AI/ML researchers and 17,000 others argues that
> If any major military power pushes ahead with AI weapon development, a global arms race is virtually inevitable, and the endpoint of this technological trajectory is obvious: autonomous weapons will become the Kalashnikovs of tomorrow. Unlike nuclear weapons, they require no costly or hard-to-obtain raw materials, so they will become ubiquitous and cheap for all significant military powers to mass-produce. It will only be a matter of time until they appear on the black market and in the hands of terrorists, dictators wishing to better control their populace, warlords wishing to perpetrate ethnic cleansing, etc. Autonomous weapons are ideal for tasks such as assassinations, destabilizing nations, subduing populations and selectively killing a particular ethnic group.
International negotiations to potentially limit KLAOWS are underway but dragging. A formal UN discussions scheduled for late August were [cancelled due to technicalities.](https://www.stopkillerrobots.org/2017/05/diplomatsfalter/)
On August 20, an [open letter](https://futureoflife.org/autonomous-weapons-open-letter-2017) was released signed by a large number of robotics and AI company CEOs and others encouraging the UN to continue negotiations toward limiting use of KLAOWS.
A meeting is currently targeted for November 2017. | 2017-08-20T00:00:00 | 2017-11-14T00:00:00 |
Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018? | 0 | no | 2017-08-24T00:00:00 | 2018-09-01T00:00:00 |
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LIGO announcement of a neutron star merger in NGC 4993? | 1 | yes | 2017-08-25T00:00:00 | 2017-10-17T00:00:00 |
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Will the upcoming "Last Jedi" augmented reality game be a success? | 0 | no | 2017-08-27T00:00:00 | 2017-10-06T00:00:00 |
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A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion? | 1 | yes | 2017-08-27T00:00:00 | 2020-07-04T00:00:00 |
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Will Bitcoin and Ethereum be the two highest market-cap cryptocurrencies for all of November 2017? | 0 | no | 2017-08-29T00:00:00 | 2017-11-12T00:00:00 |
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Another ICO-related SEC alert published in November 2017? | 0 | no | 2017-08-30T00:00:00 | 2017-12-01T00:00:00 |
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Will Ethereum hit 75% of Bitcoin's market cap during November 2017? | 0 | no | 2017-08-31T00:00:00 | 2017-12-01T00:00:00 |
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A downturn in the cryptocurrency market as a whole? | 0 | no | 2017-08-31T00:00:00 | 2017-11-20T00:00:00 |
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Another significant cryptocurrency split during November 2017? | 1 | yes | 2017-08-31T00:00:00 | 2017-12-05T00:00:00 |
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Will Bitcoin Cash fade into oblivion? | 0 | no | 2017-08-31T00:00:00 | 2017-11-16T00:00:00 |
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More stories in the NY times about SEC regulation of initial coin offerings? | 0 | no | 2017-09-01T00:00:00 | 2017-10-16T00:00:00 |
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A major "theft" of cryptocurrency in November 2017? | 1 | yes | 2017-09-01T00:00:00 | 2017-11-21T00:00:00 |
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Passing the torch: Will a Bitcoin's dollar value exceed the Nasdaq Index value? | 1 | yes | 2017-09-02T00:00:00 | 2017-11-02T00:00:00 |
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Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018? | 0 | no | 2017-09-06T00:00:00 | 2019-01-01T00:00:00 |
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Chinese Crypto-shutdown? | 0 | no | 2017-09-08T00:00:00 | 2017-09-15T00:00:00 |
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Short-term increase in Market Volatility? | 0 | no | 2017-09-14T00:00:00 | 2017-10-17T00:00:00 |
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Will a country other than China shut down a cryptocurrency exchange by Dec. 1? | 0 | no | 2017-09-14T00:00:00 | 2017-12-05T00:00:00 |
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Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year? | 0 | no | 2017-09-22T00:00:00 | 2023-01-01T00:00:00 |
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Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020? | 0 | no | 2017-09-22T00:00:00 | 2020-05-21T00:00:00 |
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Will Uber be operating in London on Dec. 1? | 1 | yes | 2017-09-22T00:00:00 | 2017-12-04T00:00:00 |
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Will Trump go two more months without uttering the words "Bitcoin" or "Cryptocurrency"? | 1 | yes | 2017-09-23T00:00:00 | 2017-12-01T00:00:00 |
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Will Trump finish the year without mentioning the phrase "Artificial Intelligence"? | 1 | yes | There are a number of technologies that may fundamentally rework society over the next few decades that are, nonetheless, having almost little to no attention paid to them by US policymakers.
One of them is almost certainly Artificial Intelligence. As of question launch, a search of Trump's [speech transcripts](https://transcripts.factcheck.org) at FactCheck.org shows no mention of "Artificial Intelligence." | 2017-09-23T00:00:00 | 2018-04-10T00:00:00 |
A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020? | 0 | no | 2017-09-25T00:00:00 | 2019-12-31T00:00:00 |
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Will the US take military action in N. Korea? | 0 | no | 2017-09-25T00:00:00 | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 |
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Will another significant website be outed for on-the-sly in-browser cryptocoin mining By Nov. 15? | 0 | no | 2017-09-25T00:00:00 | 2017-11-24T00:00:00 |
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2017 Physics Nobel Prize in Physics for Gravitational Waves? | 1 | yes | 2017-09-28T00:00:00 | 2017-10-03T00:00:00 |
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Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters? | 0 | no | 2017-09-30T00:00:00 | 2018-11-13T00:00:00 |
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By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state? | 0 | no | 2017-10-02T00:00:00 | 2022-10-02T00:00:00 |
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Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021? | 0 | no | 2017-10-04T00:00:00 | 2022-03-21T00:00:00 |
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A major United States earthquake by 2023? | 0 | no | 2017-10-09T00:00:00 | 2023-01-01T00:00:00 |
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Will (some of) China's space station land on land? | 0 | no | 2017-10-17T00:00:00 | 2018-10-05T00:00:00 |
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Amazon to accept, or set a date to accept, Bitcoin payment by Dec. 1? | 0 | no | 2017-10-26T00:00:00 | 2017-12-01T00:00:00 |
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Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018? | 0 | no | 2017-11-12T00:00:00 | 2018-04-17T00:00:00 |
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Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018? | 0 | no | 2017-11-12T00:00:00 | 2019-01-01T00:00:00 |
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Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019? | 1 | yes | 2017-11-16T00:00:00 | 2019-01-02T00:00:00 |
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A surge in large earthquakes in 2018? | 0 | no | 2017-11-20T00:00:00 | 2019-01-01T00:00:00 |
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Will Tesla go out of business before 2019? | 0 | no | 2017-11-20T00:00:00 | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 |
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Will the world be more democratic in 2022 than in 2017? | 0 | no | 2017-11-21T00:00:00 | 2023-02-09T00:00:00 |