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[
"The",
"U.S.",
"is",
"required",
"to",
"notify",
"foreign",
"dictators",
"if",
"it",
"knows",
"of",
"coup",
"plans",
"likely",
"to",
"endanger",
"their",
"lives",
",",
"government",
"officials",
"said",
".",
"The",
"notification",
"policy",
"was",
"part",
"of",
"a",
"set",
"of",
"guidelines",
"on",
"handling",
"coups",
"outlined",
"in",
"a",
"secret",
"1988",
"exchange",
"of",
"letters",
"between",
"the",
"Reagan",
"administration",
"and",
"the",
"Senate",
"Intelligence",
"Committee",
".",
"The",
"existence",
"of",
"the",
"guidelines",
"has",
"become",
"known",
"since",
"President",
"Bush",
"disclosed",
"them",
"privately",
"to",
"seven",
"Republican",
"senators",
"at",
"a",
"White",
"House",
"meeting",
"last",
"Monday",
".",
"Officials",
"familiar",
"with",
"the",
"meeting",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"cited",
"the",
"policy",
"as",
"an",
"example",
"of",
"the",
"sort",
"of",
"congressional",
"requirements",
"the",
"administration",
"contends",
"contribute",
"to",
"the",
"failure",
"of",
"such",
"covert",
"actions",
"as",
"this",
"month",
"'s",
"futile",
"effort",
"to",
"oust",
"Panamanian",
"dictator",
"Manuel",
"Noriega",
".",
"According",
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"the",
"officials",
",",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"even",
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"to",
"the",
"senators",
"selections",
"from",
"a",
"highly",
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"from",
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"to",
"the",
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"House",
"discussing",
"the",
"guidelines",
".",
"They",
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"the",
"president",
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"did",
"n't",
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"to",
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"only",
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"coup",
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".",
"No",
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"was",
"ever",
"considered",
",",
"officials",
"said",
",",
"apparently",
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"the",
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"did",
"n't",
"think",
"the",
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"plotters",
"intended",
"to",
"kill",
"Mr.",
"Noriega",
",",
"but",
"merely",
"sought",
"to",
"imprison",
"him",
".",
"What",
"'s",
"more",
",",
"both",
"administration",
"and",
"congressional",
"officials",
"hint",
"that",
"the",
"notification",
"requirement",
"is",
"likely",
"to",
"be",
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"from",
"the",
"guidelines",
"on",
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"attempts",
"that",
"are",
"being",
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"by",
"the",
"panel",
"and",
"the",
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"House",
".",
"The",
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"was",
"launched",
"at",
"a",
"meeting",
"between",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"and",
"intelligence",
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"leaders",
"Oct.",
"12",
",",
"a",
"few",
"days",
"before",
"the",
"meeting",
"at",
"which",
"the",
"president",
"complained",
"about",
"the",
"rules",
".",
"However",
",",
"the",
"disclosure",
"of",
"the",
"guidelines",
",",
"first",
"reported",
"last",
"night",
"by",
"NBC",
"News",
",",
"is",
"already",
"being",
"interpreted",
"on",
"Capitol",
"Hill",
"as",
"an",
"unfair",
"effort",
"to",
"pressure",
"Congress",
".",
"It",
"has",
"reopened",
"the",
"bitter",
"wrangling",
"between",
"the",
"White",
"House",
"and",
"Congress",
"over",
"who",
"is",
"responsible",
"for",
"the",
"failure",
"to",
"oust",
"Mr.",
"Noriega",
"and",
",",
"more",
"broadly",
",",
"for",
"difficulties",
"in",
"carrying",
"out",
"covert",
"activities",
"abroad",
".",
"A",
"statement",
"issued",
"by",
"the",
"office",
"of",
"the",
"committee",
"chairman",
",",
"Sen.",
"David",
"Boren",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"Okla.",
")",
",",
"charged",
"that",
"the",
"disclosure",
"is",
"part",
"of",
"a",
"continuing",
"effort",
"to",
"shift",
"the",
"criticism",
"for",
"the",
"failure",
"of",
"the",
"recent",
"coup",
"attempt",
"in",
"Panama",
".",
"The",
"statement",
"added",
",",
"``",
"Someone",
"has",
"regrettably",
"chosen",
"to",
"selectively",
"summarize",
"portions",
"of",
"highly",
"classified",
"correspondence",
"between",
"the",
"two",
"branches",
"of",
"government",
".",
"Not",
"only",
"does",
"this",
"come",
"close",
"to",
"a",
"violation",
"of",
"law",
",",
"it",
"violates",
"the",
"trust",
"we",
"have",
"all",
"worked",
"to",
"develop",
".",
"''",
"Sen.",
"Boren",
"said",
",",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"time",
"to",
"stop",
"bickering",
"and",
"work",
"together",
"to",
"develop",
"a",
"clear",
"and",
"appropriate",
"policy",
"to",
"help",
"the",
"country",
"in",
"the",
"future",
".",
"I",
"'ve",
"invited",
"the",
"president",
"to",
"send",
"his",
"suggestions",
"to",
"the",
"committee",
".",
"''",
"Republican",
"Sen.",
"William",
"Cohen",
"of",
"Maine",
",",
"the",
"panel",
"'s",
"vice",
"chairman",
",",
"said",
"of",
"the",
"disclosure",
"that",
"``",
"a",
"text",
"torn",
"out",
"of",
"context",
"is",
"a",
"pretext",
",",
"and",
"it",
"is",
"unfair",
"for",
"those",
"in",
"the",
"White",
"House",
"who",
"are",
"leaking",
"to",
"present",
"the",
"evidence",
"in",
"a",
"selective",
"fashion",
".",
"''",
"Sen.",
"Boren",
"said",
"the",
"committee",
"could",
"n't",
"defend",
"itself",
"by",
"making",
"the",
"documents",
"public",
"because",
"that",
"would",
"violate",
"classification",
"rules",
".",
"But",
"the",
"chairman",
"and",
"other",
"committee",
"members",
"stressed",
"that",
"the",
"notification",
"guideline",
"was",
"n't",
"imposed",
"on",
"the",
"White",
"House",
"by",
"a",
"meddling",
"Congress",
".",
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",",
"both",
"congressional",
"and",
"administration",
"officials",
"agreed",
",",
"it",
"grew",
"out",
"of",
"talks",
"about",
"coup-planning",
"in",
"Panama",
"that",
"were",
"initiated",
"by",
"the",
"administration",
"in",
"July",
"1988",
"and",
"stretched",
"into",
"last",
"October",
".",
"The",
"guideline",
"was",
"n't",
"a",
"law",
",",
"but",
"a",
"joint",
"interpretation",
"of",
"how",
"the",
"U.S.",
"might",
"operate",
"during",
"foreign",
"coups",
"in",
"light",
"of",
"the",
"longstanding",
"presidential",
"order",
"banning",
"a",
"U.S.",
"role",
"in",
"assassinations",
".",
"In",
"fact",
",",
"yesterday",
"the",
"administration",
"and",
"Congress",
"were",
"still",
"differing",
"on",
"what",
"had",
"been",
"agreed",
"to",
".",
"One",
"administration",
"official",
"said",
"notification",
"was",
"required",
"even",
"if",
"the",
"U.S.",
"``",
"gets",
"wind",
"''",
"of",
"somebody",
"else",
"'s",
"coup",
"plans",
"that",
"seem",
"likely",
"to",
"endanger",
"a",
"dictator",
"'s",
"life",
".",
"But",
"a",
"congressional",
"source",
"close",
"to",
"the",
"panel",
"said",
"the",
"rule",
"only",
"covered",
"coup",
"plans",
"directly",
"involving",
"the",
"U.S.",
".",
"Although",
"the",
"notification",
"guideline",
"was",
"n't",
"carried",
"out",
"in",
"this",
"month",
"'s",
"coup",
"attempt",
",",
"some",
"administration",
"officials",
"argue",
"that",
"it",
"may",
"have",
"led",
"to",
"hesitation",
"and",
"uncertainty",
"on",
"the",
"part",
"of",
"U.S.",
"intelligence",
"and",
"military",
"operatives",
"in",
"Panama",
".",
"One",
"senior",
"administration",
"official",
"called",
"the",
"guideline",
"``",
"outrageous",
"''",
"and",
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"for",
"fear",
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"get",
"into",
"legal",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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"the",
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"had",
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"to",
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"funding",
"for",
"new",
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"coup",
"efforts",
".",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"both",
"administration",
"and",
"congressional",
"officials",
"said",
"the",
"need",
"for",
"guidelines",
"on",
"coups",
"and",
"assassinations",
"was",
"partly",
"spurred",
"by",
"a",
"White",
"House",
"desire",
"to",
"avoid",
"nasty",
"overseas",
"surprises",
"during",
"the",
"election",
"campaign",
".",
"Though",
"the",
"assassination",
"ban",
"is",
"a",
"White",
"House",
"order",
"that",
"Congress",
"never",
"voted",
"on",
",",
"the",
"intelligence",
"committees",
"can",
"exercise",
"influence",
"over",
"its",
"interpretation",
".",
"Last",
"week",
",",
"Central",
"Intelligence",
"Agency",
"Director",
"William",
"Webster",
"publicly",
"called",
"on",
"Congress",
"to",
"provide",
"new",
"interpretations",
"of",
"the",
"assassination",
"order",
"that",
"would",
"permit",
"the",
"U.S.",
"more",
"freedom",
"to",
"act",
"in",
"coups",
".",
"The",
"administration",
"has",
"reacted",
"to",
"criticism",
"that",
"it",
"mishandled",
"the",
"latest",
"coup",
"attempt",
"by",
"seeking",
"to",
"blame",
"Congress",
"for",
"restrictions",
"the",
"White",
"House",
"said",
"have",
"hampered",
"its",
"freedom",
"of",
"action",
".",
"However",
",",
"last",
"week",
"Mr.",
"Webster",
"'s",
"two",
"top",
"CIA",
"deputies",
"said",
"congressional",
"curbs",
"had",
"n't",
"hampered",
"the",
"spy",
"agency",
"'s",
"role",
"in",
"the",
"coup",
"attempt",
"in",
"Panama",
".",
"Nevertheless",
",",
"the",
"administration",
"'s",
"criticisms",
"appeared",
"to",
"have",
"made",
"some",
"headway",
"with",
"Sens.",
"Boren",
"and",
"Cohen",
"after",
"their",
"Oct.",
"12",
"meeting",
"with",
"the",
"president",
".",
"The",
"three",
"men",
"agreed",
"to",
"rewrite",
"the",
"guidelines",
",",
"without",
"changing",
"the",
"basic",
"assassination",
"ban",
",",
"to",
"clear",
"up",
"any",
"ambiguities",
"that",
"may",
"have",
"hampered",
"U.S.",
"encouragement",
"of",
"coups",
"against",
"anti-American",
"leaders",
".",
"The",
"new",
"argument",
"over",
"the",
"notification",
"guideline",
",",
"however",
",",
"could",
"sour",
"any",
"atmosphere",
"of",
"cooperation",
"that",
"existed",
".",
"Gerald",
"F.",
"Seib",
"contributed",
"to",
"this",
"article",
"."
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"revived",
".",
"The",
"stock",
"has",
"fallen",
"$",
"87.25",
",",
"or",
"31",
"%",
",",
"in",
"the",
"three",
"trading",
"days",
"since",
"announcement",
"of",
"the",
"collapse",
"of",
"the",
"$",
"300-a-share",
"takeover",
"jolted",
"the",
"entire",
"stock",
"market",
"into",
"its",
"second-worst",
"plunge",
"ever",
".",
"``",
"This",
"is",
"a",
"total",
"bloodbath",
"''",
"for",
"takeover-stock",
"traders",
",",
"one",
"investment",
"banker",
"said",
".",
"Los",
"Angeles",
"financier",
"Marvin",
"Davis",
",",
"who",
"put",
"United",
"in",
"play",
"with",
"a",
"$",
"5.4",
"billion",
"bid",
"two",
"months",
"ago",
",",
"last",
"night",
"proffered",
"both",
"a",
"ray",
"of",
"hope",
"and",
"an",
"extra",
"element",
"of",
"uncertainty",
"by",
"saying",
"he",
"remains",
"interested",
"in",
"acquiring",
"UAL",
".",
"But",
"he",
"dropped",
"his",
"earlier",
"$",
"300-a-share",
"back-up",
"bid",
",",
"saying",
"he",
"must",
"first",
"explore",
"bank",
"financing",
".",
"Even",
"as",
"Citicorp",
"and",
"Chase",
"Manhattan",
"Corp.",
"scrambled",
"to",
"line",
"up",
"bank",
"financing",
"for",
"a",
"revised",
"version",
"of",
"the",
"lapsed",
"labor-management",
"bid",
",",
"British",
"Airways",
",",
"a",
"15",
"%",
"partner",
"in",
"the",
"buying",
"group",
",",
"indicated",
"it",
"wants",
"to",
"start",
"from",
"scratch",
".",
"Its",
"partners",
"are",
"United",
"'s",
"pilots",
",",
"who",
"were",
"to",
"own",
"75",
"%",
",",
"and",
"UAL",
"management",
"at",
"10",
"%",
".",
"Adding",
"insult",
"to",
"injury",
",",
"United",
"'s",
"25,000-member",
"Machinists",
"'",
"union",
",",
"which",
"helped",
"scuttle",
"financing",
"for",
"the",
"first",
"bid",
",",
"yesterday",
"asked",
"UAL",
"Chairman",
"Stephen",
"Wolf",
"and",
"other",
"UAL",
"directors",
"to",
"resign",
".",
"A",
"similar",
"demand",
"was",
"made",
"by",
"a",
"group",
"that",
"represents",
"some",
"of",
"United",
"'s",
"26,000",
"noncontract",
"employees",
".",
"John",
"Peterpaul",
",",
"Machinists",
"union",
"general",
"vice",
"president",
",",
"attacked",
"Mr.",
"Wolf",
"as",
"``",
"greedy",
"and",
"irresponsible",
"''",
"for",
"pursuing",
"the",
"buy-out",
".",
"Although",
"Mr.",
"Wolf",
"and",
"John",
"Pope",
",",
"UAL",
"'s",
"chief",
"financial",
"officer",
",",
"stood",
"to",
"pocket",
"$",
"114.3",
"million",
"for",
"stock",
"and",
"options",
"in",
"the",
"buy-out",
",",
"UAL",
"executives",
"planned",
"to",
"reinvest",
"only",
"$",
"15",
"million",
"in",
"the",
"new",
"company",
".",
"The",
"blue-collar",
"machinists",
",",
"longtime",
"rivals",
"of",
"the",
"white-collar",
"pilots",
",",
"say",
"the",
"buyout",
"would",
"load",
"the",
"company",
"with",
"debt",
"and",
"weaken",
"its",
"finances",
".",
"Confusion",
"about",
"the",
"two",
"banks",
"'",
"hurried",
"efforts",
"to",
"round",
"up",
"financing",
"for",
"a",
"new",
"bid",
"that",
"the",
"UAL",
"board",
"has",
"n't",
"even",
"seen",
"yet",
"helped",
"send",
"UAL",
"stock",
"spiraling",
"downward",
".",
"And",
"rumors",
"of",
"forced",
"selling",
"by",
"takeover-stock",
"traders",
"triggered",
"a",
"25-point",
"downdraft",
"in",
"the",
"Dow",
"Jones",
"Industrial",
"Average",
"around",
"11:15",
"a.m.",
"EDT",
"yesterday",
".",
"Yesterday",
"'s",
"selling",
"began",
"after",
"a",
"Japanese",
"news",
"agency",
"reported",
"that",
"Japanese",
"banks",
",",
"which",
"balked",
"at",
"the",
"first",
"bid",
",",
"were",
"ready",
"to",
"reject",
"a",
"revised",
"version",
"at",
"around",
"$",
"250",
"a",
"share",
",",
"or",
"$",
"5.65",
"billion",
".",
"Several",
"reports",
"as",
"the",
"day",
"progressed",
"gave",
"vague",
"or",
"conflicting",
"indications",
"about",
"whether",
"banks",
"would",
"sign",
"up",
".",
"Citicorp",
",",
"for",
"example",
",",
"said",
"only",
"that",
"it",
"had",
"``",
"expressions",
"of",
"interest",
"of",
"a",
"transaction",
"from",
"both",
"the",
"borrowers",
"and",
"the",
"banks",
",",
"''",
"but",
"did",
"n't",
"have",
"an",
"agreement",
".",
"Late",
"in",
"the",
"day",
",",
"Mr.",
"Wolf",
"issued",
"a",
"onepage",
"statement",
"calling",
"Mr.",
"Peterpaul",
"'s",
"blast",
"``",
"divisive",
"and",
"uncalled",
"for",
".",
"''",
"But",
"he",
"gave",
"few",
"details",
"on",
"the",
"progress",
"toward",
"a",
"new",
"bid",
",",
"saying",
"only",
",",
"``",
"We",
"are",
"working",
"toward",
"a",
"revised",
"proposal",
"for",
"majority",
"employee",
"ownership",
".",
"''",
"Meanwhile",
",",
"in",
"another",
"sign",
"that",
"a",
"new",
"bid",
"is",
"n't",
"imminent",
",",
"it",
"was",
"learned",
"that",
"the",
"UAL",
"board",
"held",
"a",
"telephone",
"meeting",
"Monday",
"to",
"hear",
"an",
"update",
"on",
"the",
"situation",
",",
"but",
"that",
"a",
"formal",
"board",
"meeting",
"is",
"n't",
"likely",
"to",
"be",
"convened",
"until",
"early",
"next",
"week",
".",
"In",
"London",
",",
"British",
"Airways",
"Chairman",
"Lord",
"King",
"was",
"quoted",
"in",
"the",
"Times",
"as",
"declaring",
"he",
"is",
"``",
"not",
"prepared",
"to",
"take",
"my",
"shareholders",
"into",
"a",
"hasty",
"deal",
".",
"''",
"Observers",
"said",
"it",
"appeared",
"that",
"British",
"Air",
"was",
"angered",
"at",
"the",
"way",
"the",
"bid",
"has",
"degenerated",
"into",
"confusion",
",",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"by",
"the",
"banks",
"'",
"effort",
"to",
"round",
"up",
"financing",
"for",
"what",
"one",
"called",
"``",
"a",
"deal",
"that",
"is",
"n't",
"a",
"deal",
".",
"''",
"The",
"effort",
"to",
"revive",
"the",
"bid",
"was",
"complicated",
"by",
"the",
"unwieldy",
"nature",
"of",
"the",
"three-party",
"buying",
"group",
".",
"The",
"pilots",
"were",
"meeting",
"outside",
"Chicago",
"yesterday",
".",
"But",
"British",
"Air",
",",
"which",
"was",
"to",
"have",
"supplied",
"$",
"750",
"million",
"out",
"of",
"$",
"965",
"million",
"in",
"equity",
"financing",
",",
"apparently",
"was",
"n't",
"involved",
"in",
"the",
"second",
"proposal",
"and",
"could",
"well",
"reject",
"it",
"even",
"if",
"banks",
"obtain",
"financing",
".",
"A",
"group",
"of",
"United",
"'s",
"noncontract",
"employees",
"said",
"in",
"a",
"statement",
",",
"``",
"The",
"fact",
"that",
"Wolf",
"and",
"other",
"officers",
"were",
"going",
"to",
"line",
"their",
"pockets",
"with",
"literally",
"millions",
"of",
"dollars",
"while",
"instituting",
"severe",
"pay",
"cuts",
"on",
"the",
"nonunion",
"employees",
"of",
"United",
"is",
"not",
"only",
"deplorable",
"but",
"inexcusable",
".",
"''",
"The",
"machinists",
"also",
"asked",
"for",
"an",
"investigation",
"by",
"the",
"Securities",
"and",
"Exchange",
"Commission",
"into",
"possible",
"securities-law",
"violations",
"in",
"the",
"original",
"bid",
"for",
"UAL",
"by",
"Mr.",
"Davis",
",",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"in",
"the",
"response",
"by",
"UAL",
".",
"Last",
"week",
",",
"just",
"before",
"the",
"bank",
"commitments",
"were",
"due",
",",
"the",
"union",
"asked",
"the",
"U.S.",
"Labor",
"Department",
"to",
"study",
"whether",
"the",
"bid",
"violated",
"legal",
"standards",
"of",
"fairness",
"governing",
"employee",
"investment",
"funds",
".",
"In",
"his",
"statement",
",",
"Mr.",
"Wolf",
"said",
",",
"``",
"We",
"continue",
"to",
"believe",
"our",
"approach",
"is",
"sound",
",",
"and",
"that",
"it",
"is",
"far",
"better",
"for",
"all",
"employees",
"than",
"the",
"alternative",
"of",
"having",
"an",
"outsider",
"own",
"the",
"company",
"with",
"employees",
"paying",
"for",
"it",
"just",
"the",
"same",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Wolf",
"has",
"eschewed",
"merger",
"advice",
"from",
"a",
"major",
"Wall",
"Street",
"securities",
"firm",
",",
"relying",
"instead",
"only",
"on",
"a",
"takeover",
"lawyer",
",",
"Peter",
"Atkins",
"of",
"Skadden",
"Arps",
"Slate",
"Meagher",
"&",
"Flom",
".",
"The",
"huge",
"drop",
"in",
"UAL",
"stock",
"prompted",
"one",
"takeover",
"stock",
"trader",
",",
"George",
"Kellner",
",",
"managing",
"partner",
"of",
"Kellner",
",",
"DiLeo",
"&",
"Co.",
",",
"to",
"deny",
"publicly",
"rumors",
"that",
"his",
"firm",
"was",
"going",
"out",
"of",
"business",
".",
"Mr.",
"Kellner",
"said",
"that",
"despite",
"losses",
"on",
"UAL",
"stock",
",",
"his",
"firm",
"'s",
"health",
"is",
"``",
"excellent",
".",
"''",
"The",
"stock",
"'s",
"decline",
"also",
"has",
"left",
"the",
"UAL",
"board",
"in",
"a",
"quandary",
".",
"Although",
"it",
"may",
"not",
"be",
"legally",
"obligated",
"to",
"sell",
"the",
"company",
"if",
"the",
"buy-out",
"group",
"ca",
"n't",
"revive",
"its",
"bid",
",",
"it",
"may",
"have",
"to",
"explore",
"alternatives",
"if",
"the",
"buyers",
"come",
"back",
"with",
"a",
"bid",
"much",
"lower",
"than",
"the",
"group",
"'s",
"original",
"$",
"300-a-share",
"proposal",
".",
"At",
"a",
"meeting",
"Sept.",
"1",
"to",
"consider",
"the",
"labor-management",
"bid",
",",
"the",
"board",
"also",
"was",
"informed",
"by",
"its",
"investment",
"adviser",
",",
"First",
"Boston",
"Corp.",
",",
"of",
"interest",
"expressed",
"by",
"buy-out",
"funds",
"including",
"Kohlberg",
"Kravis",
"Roberts",
"&",
"Co.",
"and",
"Forstmann",
"Little",
"&",
"Co.",
",",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"by",
"Robert",
"Bass",
",",
"Morgan",
"Stanley",
"'s",
"buy-out",
"fund",
",",
"and",
"Pan",
"Am",
"Corp",
".",
"The",
"takeover-stock",
"traders",
"were",
"hoping",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Davis",
"or",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"other",
"interested",
"parties",
"might",
"re-emerge",
"with",
"the",
"situation",
"in",
"disarray",
",",
"or",
"that",
"the",
"board",
"might",
"consider",
"a",
"recapitalization",
".",
"Meanwhile",
",",
"Japanese",
"bankers",
"said",
"they",
"were",
"still",
"hesitant",
"about",
"accepting",
"Citicorp",
"'s",
"latest",
"proposal",
"."
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",",
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".",
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",",
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"also",
"expanding",
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".",
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"paying",
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"--",
"after",
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"of",
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"--",
"to",
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"and",
"keep",
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".",
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"embarking",
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"expensive",
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"major",
"stories",
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".",
"``",
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"stage",
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"to",
"get",
"beyond",
"the",
"opinion",
"leaders",
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",",
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",",
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"vice",
"president",
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"Headline",
"News",
",",
"CNN",
"'s",
"sister",
"network",
".",
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"that",
"wo",
"n't",
"be",
"easy",
".",
"Networks",
",",
"like",
"other",
"consumer",
"products",
",",
"develop",
"images",
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"'",
"minds",
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",",
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"Amos",
",",
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",",
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",",
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"``",
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"Crossair",
",",
"one",
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"'s",
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"regional",
"air",
"companies",
",",
"for",
"five",
"Saab",
"340B",
"turboprop",
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"."
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[
"Bond",
"prices",
"staggered",
"in",
"seesaw",
"trading",
",",
"rising",
"on",
"reports",
"of",
"economic",
"weakness",
"and",
"falling",
"on",
"reports",
"of",
"economic",
"strength",
".",
"Treasury",
"bonds",
"got",
"off",
"to",
"a",
"strong",
"start",
",",
"advancing",
"modestly",
"during",
"overnight",
"trading",
"on",
"foreign",
"markets",
".",
"``",
"We",
"saw",
"good",
"buying",
"in",
"Japan",
"and",
"excellent",
"buying",
"in",
"London",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Jay",
"Goldinger",
",",
"market",
"strategist",
"and",
"trader",
"at",
"Capital",
"Insight",
"Inc.",
",",
"Beverly",
"Hills",
",",
"Calif",
".",
"The",
"market",
"'s",
"tempo",
"was",
"helped",
"by",
"the",
"dollar",
"'s",
"resiliency",
",",
"he",
"said",
".",
"Late",
"in",
"London",
",",
"the",
"dollar",
"was",
"quoted",
"at",
"1.8410",
"West",
"German",
"marks",
"and",
"142.70",
"Japanese",
"yen",
",",
"up",
"from",
"late",
"Monday",
"in",
"New",
"York",
".",
"British",
"sterling",
"eased",
"to",
"$",
"1.5775",
"from",
"$",
"1.5825",
".",
"When",
"U.S.",
"trading",
"began",
",",
"Treasury",
"bonds",
"received",
"an",
"additional",
"boost",
"from",
"news",
"that",
"sales",
"of",
"new",
"single-family",
"homes",
"fell",
"14",
"%",
"in",
"September",
".",
"The",
"contraction",
"was",
"twice",
"as",
"large",
"as",
"economists",
"projected",
"and",
"was",
"the",
"sharpest",
"decline",
"since",
"a",
"19",
"%",
"drop",
"in",
"January",
"1982",
".",
"Economists",
"said",
"the",
"report",
"raised",
"speculation",
"that",
"the",
"economic",
"slowdown",
"could",
"turn",
"into",
"a",
"recession",
",",
"which",
"would",
"pave",
"the",
"way",
"for",
"the",
"Federal",
"Reserve",
"to",
"lower",
"interest",
"rates",
".",
"But",
"later",
"in",
"the",
"day",
",",
"a",
"report",
"by",
"the",
"Purchasing",
"Management",
"Association",
"of",
"Chicago",
"cast",
"doubt",
"on",
"the",
"recession",
"scenario",
".",
"The",
"association",
"said",
"its",
"October",
"index",
"of",
"economic",
"activity",
"rose",
"to",
"51.6",
"%",
"after",
"having",
"been",
"below",
"50",
"%",
"for",
"three",
"consecutive",
"months",
".",
"A",
"reading",
"below",
"50",
"%",
"indicates",
"that",
"the",
"manufacturing",
"industry",
"is",
"slowing",
"while",
"a",
"reading",
"above",
"50",
"%",
"suggests",
"that",
"the",
"industry",
"is",
"expanding",
".",
"Bond",
"prices",
"fell",
"after",
"the",
"Chicago",
"report",
"was",
"released",
".",
"By",
"the",
"end",
"of",
"the",
"day",
",",
"bond",
"prices",
"were",
"mixed",
".",
"The",
"benchmark",
"30-year",
"bond",
"was",
"nearly",
"1/4",
"point",
"higher",
",",
"or",
"up",
"about",
"$",
"2.50",
"for",
"each",
"$",
"1,000",
"face",
"amount",
".",
"New",
"two-year",
"notes",
"ended",
"unchanged",
"while",
"three-year",
"and",
"four-year",
"notes",
"were",
"slightly",
"lower",
".",
"Municipal",
"bonds",
"ended",
"unchanged",
"to",
"as",
"much",
"as",
"1/2",
"point",
"higher",
"while",
"mortgage-backed",
"securities",
"were",
"up",
"about",
"1/8",
"point",
".",
"Corporate",
"bonds",
"were",
"unchanged",
".",
"In",
"the",
"corporate",
"market",
",",
"an",
"expected",
"debt",
"offering",
"today",
"by",
"International",
"Business",
"Machines",
"Corp.",
"generated",
"considerable",
"attention",
".",
"The",
"giant",
"computer",
"maker",
"is",
"slated",
"to",
"offer",
"$",
"500",
"million",
"of",
"30-year",
"non-callable",
"debentures",
"through",
"underwriters",
"led",
"by",
"Salomon",
"Brothers",
"Inc",
".",
"Traders",
"expect",
"the",
"bonds",
"to",
"yield",
"about",
"0.60",
"to",
"0.65",
"percentage",
"point",
"above",
"the",
"Treasury",
"'s",
"benchmark",
"30-year",
"bond",
",",
"which",
"ended",
"Tuesday",
"with",
"a",
"yield",
"of",
"about",
"7.90",
"%",
".",
"The",
"last",
"time",
"IBM",
"tapped",
"the",
"corporate",
"debt",
"market",
"was",
"in",
"April",
"1988",
",",
"when",
"it",
"offered",
"$",
"500",
"million",
"of",
"debt",
"securities",
".",
"IBM",
"'s",
"visits",
"to",
"the",
"debt",
"market",
"are",
"closely",
"watched",
"by",
"treasurers",
"at",
"other",
"corporations",
"and",
"by",
"credit",
"market",
"analysts",
".",
"Some",
"analysts",
"believe",
"the",
"company",
"has",
"the",
"ability",
"to",
"pinpoint",
"the",
"trough",
"in",
"interest-rate",
"cycles",
".",
"In",
"October",
"1979",
",",
"just",
"days",
"before",
"the",
"Federal",
"Reserve",
"raised",
"interest",
"rates",
",",
"IBM",
"offered",
"$",
"1",
"billion",
"in",
"debt",
"securities",
".",
"The",
"boost",
"in",
"rates",
"sent",
"IBM",
"'s",
"bonds",
"tumbling",
",",
"leaving",
"underwriters",
"with",
"millions",
"of",
"dollars",
"of",
"losses",
"and",
"triggering",
"a",
"sell-off",
"in",
"the",
"overall",
"market",
".",
"The",
"company",
"``",
"ca",
"n't",
"be",
"bullish",
"if",
"they",
"'re",
"doing",
"a",
"sizable",
"30-year",
"bullet",
",",
"''",
"said",
"one",
"analyst",
".",
"Others",
"said",
"IBM",
"might",
"increase",
"the",
"size",
"of",
"the",
"offering",
"to",
"as",
"much",
"as",
"$",
"1",
"billion",
"if",
"investor",
"demand",
"is",
"strong",
".",
"The",
"company",
"has",
"$",
"1",
"billion",
"in",
"debt",
"filed",
"with",
"the",
"Securities",
"and",
"Exchange",
"Commission",
".",
"``",
"I",
"think",
"the",
"$",
"500",
"million",
"is",
"a",
"little",
"bit",
"of",
"a",
"fire",
"drill",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Jim",
"Ednee",
",",
"head",
"of",
"the",
"industrial",
"bond",
"department",
"at",
"Drexel",
"Burnham",
"Lambert",
"Inc",
".",
"``",
"I",
"think",
"as",
"the",
"pricing",
"time",
"arrives",
",",
"the",
"bonds",
"will",
"come",
"a",
"little",
"richer",
"and",
"in",
"a",
"larger",
"amount",
".",
"''",
"Treasury",
"Securities",
"Treasury",
"prices",
"ended",
"mixed",
"in",
"light",
"trading",
".",
"The",
"benchmark",
"30-year",
"bond",
"was",
"quoted",
"late",
"at",
"102",
"12/32",
"to",
"yield",
"7.90",
"%",
"compared",
"with",
"102",
"7/32",
"to",
"yield",
"7.92",
"%",
"Monday",
".",
"The",
"latest",
"10-year",
"notes",
"were",
"unchanged",
"at",
"100",
"16/32",
"to",
"yield",
"7.904",
"%",
".",
"Short-term",
"rates",
"also",
"were",
"mixed",
".",
"The",
"discount",
"rate",
"on",
"three-month",
"Treasury",
"bills",
"rose",
"slightly",
"from",
"the",
"average",
"rate",
"at",
"Monday",
"'s",
"auction",
"to",
"7.79",
"%",
"for",
"a",
"bond-equivalent",
"yield",
"of",
"8.04",
"%",
".",
"The",
"discount",
"rate",
"on",
"six-month",
"Treasury",
"bills",
"fell",
"slightly",
"to",
"7.60",
"%",
"for",
"a",
"bond-equivalent",
"yield",
"of",
"7.99",
"%",
".",
"Corporate",
"Issues",
"Two",
"junk",
"bond",
"issues",
"were",
"priced",
"yesterday",
",",
"including",
"a",
"scaled-backed",
"offering",
"by",
"Beatrice",
"Co",
".",
"A",
"spokesman",
"for",
"underwriters",
"Salomon",
"Brothers",
"Inc.",
"said",
"Beatrice",
"cut",
"its",
"high-yield",
"offering",
"to",
"$",
"251",
"million",
"from",
"a",
"planned",
"$",
"350",
"million",
"after",
"it",
"became",
"clear",
"the",
"company",
"would",
"have",
"to",
"give",
"investors",
"higher",
"yields",
".",
"In",
"the",
"two-part",
"offering",
",",
"$",
"151",
"million",
"of",
"senior",
"subordinated",
"reset",
"notes",
"were",
"priced",
"at",
"99.75",
"and",
"carried",
"a",
"rate",
"of",
"13",
"3/4",
"%",
",",
"while",
"the",
"$",
"100",
"million",
"of",
"senior",
"subordinated",
"floating",
"rate",
"notes",
"were",
"priced",
"to",
"float",
"at",
"4.25",
"percentage",
"points",
"above",
"the",
"London",
"Interbank",
"Offered",
"Rate",
",",
"or",
"LIBOR",
".",
"The",
"one-year",
"LIBOR",
"rate",
"yesterday",
"was",
"8",
"7/16",
"%",
".",
"Since",
"the",
"recent",
"deterioration",
"of",
"the",
"junk-bond",
"market",
",",
"at",
"least",
"two",
"other",
"junk",
"issuers",
"have",
"said",
"they",
"plan",
"to",
"scale",
"back",
"planned",
"high-yield",
"offerings",
",",
"and",
"several",
"issues",
"have",
"been",
"postponed",
".",
"William",
"Carmichael",
",",
"Beatrice",
"chief",
"financial",
"officer",
",",
"said",
"favorable",
"market",
"conditions",
"in",
"September",
"prompted",
"the",
"company",
"to",
"plan",
"more",
"debt",
"than",
"necessary",
".",
"``",
"However",
",",
"given",
"the",
"changes",
"in",
"the",
"market",
"conditions",
"that",
"have",
"occurred",
"since",
"then",
",",
"we",
"decided",
"to",
"sell",
"only",
"the",
"amount",
"needed",
"to",
"proceed",
"with",
"our",
"contemplated",
"recapitalization",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
".",
"Under",
"the",
"firm",
"'s",
"original",
"bank",
"credit",
"agreement",
",",
"it",
"was",
"required",
"to",
"raise",
"$",
"250",
"million",
"of",
"subordinated",
"debt",
"to",
"be",
"used",
"to",
"repay",
"some",
"of",
"the",
"bank",
"borrowings",
"drawn",
"to",
"redeem",
"$",
"526.3",
"million",
"of",
"increasing",
"rate",
"debentures",
"in",
"August",
".",
"A",
"month",
"ago",
",",
"when",
"Beatrice",
"first",
"filed",
"to",
"sell",
"debt",
",",
"the",
"company",
"had",
"planned",
"to",
"offer",
"$",
"200",
"million",
"of",
"its",
"senior",
"subordinated",
"reset",
"notes",
"at",
"a",
"yield",
"of",
"12",
"3/4",
"%",
".",
"The",
"$",
"150",
"million",
"in",
"senior",
"subordinated",
"floating-rate",
"notes",
"were",
"targeted",
"to",
"be",
"offered",
"at",
"a",
"price",
"to",
"float",
"four",
"percentage",
"points",
"above",
"the",
"three-month",
"LIBOR",
".",
"By",
"October",
",",
"however",
",",
"market",
"conditions",
"had",
"deteriorated",
"and",
"the",
"reset",
"notes",
"were",
"targeted",
"to",
"be",
"offered",
"at",
"a",
"yield",
"of",
"between",
"13",
"1/4",
"%",
"and",
"13",
"1/2",
"%",
".",
"Mr.",
"Carmichael",
"said",
"investors",
"also",
"demanded",
"stricter",
"convenants",
".",
"Continental",
"Cablevision",
"Inc.",
",",
"via",
"underwriters",
"at",
"Morgan",
"Stanley",
"&",
"Co.",
",",
"priced",
"$",
"350",
"million",
"of",
"junk",
"bonds",
"at",
"par",
"to",
"yield",
"12",
"7/8",
"%",
".",
"Mortgage-Backed",
"Securities",
"J.C.",
"Penney",
"&",
"Co.",
"issued",
"$",
"350",
"million",
"of",
"securities",
"backed",
"by",
"credit-card",
"receivables",
".",
"The",
"securities",
"were",
"priced",
"at",
"99.1875",
"to",
"yield",
"about",
"9.19",
"%",
".",
"Underwriters",
"at",
"First",
"Boston",
"Corp.",
"said",
"the",
"J.C.",
"Penney",
"credit-card",
"securities",
"are",
"the",
"first",
"with",
"a",
"10-year",
"average",
"life",
",",
"which",
"is",
"much",
"longer",
"than",
"previous",
"such",
"issues",
".",
"Elsewhere",
",",
"Ginnie",
"Mae",
"'s",
"9",
"%",
"issue",
"for",
"November",
"delivery",
"was",
"quoted",
"at",
"98",
"18/32",
"bid",
",",
"up",
"5/32",
"from",
"late",
"Monday",
",",
"to",
"yield",
"about",
"9.333",
"%",
"to",
"a",
"12-year",
"average",
"life",
"assumption",
".",
"Freddie",
"Mac",
"'s",
"9",
"1/2",
"%",
"issue",
"was",
"quoted",
"at",
"99",
"20/32",
",",
"up",
"3/32",
"from",
"Monday",
".",
"Fannie",
"Mae",
"'s",
"9",
"%",
"issue",
"was",
"at",
"98",
"7/32",
",",
"up",
"1/8",
".",
"On",
"the",
"pricing",
"front",
",",
"an",
"11-class",
"issue",
"of",
"$",
"500",
"million",
"Federal",
"Home",
"Loan",
"Mortgage",
"Corp",
".",
"Remic",
"mortgage",
"securities",
"was",
"launched",
"by",
"a",
"Morgan",
"Stanley",
"group",
".",
"The",
"offering",
"is",
"backed",
"by",
"Freddie",
"Mac",
"'s",
"10",
"%",
"issue",
"with",
"a",
"weighted",
"average",
"term",
"to",
"maturity",
"of",
"29.583",
"months",
".",
"Municipal",
"Issues",
"Municipal",
"bonds",
"were",
"little",
"changed",
"to",
"1/2",
"point",
"higher",
"in",
"late",
"dealings",
".",
"``",
"We",
"were",
"oversold",
"and",
"today",
"we",
"bounced",
"back",
".",
"Some",
"accounts",
"came",
"in",
"for",
"some",
"blocks",
"in",
"the",
"secondary",
"-LCB-",
"market",
"-RCB-",
",",
"which",
"we",
"have",
"n't",
"seen",
"for",
"a",
"while",
",",
"''",
"said",
"one",
"trader",
".",
"``",
"There",
"were",
"no",
"-LCB-",
"sell",
"-RCB-",
"lists",
"and",
"the",
"calendar",
"is",
"lightening",
"up",
"a",
"bit",
".",
"There",
"'s",
"light",
"at",
"the",
"end",
"of",
"the",
"tunnel",
"for",
"municipals",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
",",
"adding",
"that",
"he",
"expects",
"prices",
"to",
"``",
"inch",
"up",
"''",
"in",
"the",
"near",
"term",
".",
"The",
"market",
"'s",
"tone",
"improved",
"after",
"Monday",
"'s",
"pricing",
"of",
"$",
"813",
"million",
"New",
"York",
"City",
"general",
"obligation",
"bonds",
".",
"The",
"issue",
"'s",
"smooth",
"absorption",
"eased",
"fears",
"that",
"supply",
"would",
"overwhelm",
"demand",
"in",
"coming",
"sessions",
",",
"traders",
"said",
".",
"Demand",
"for",
"the",
"bonds",
"was",
"strong",
"enough",
"to",
"permit",
"underwriters",
"to",
"trim",
"some",
"yields",
"in",
"the",
"tax-exempt",
"portion",
"of",
"the",
"offering",
"late",
"Monday",
".",
"A",
"two-part",
"$",
"75.1",
"million",
"offering",
"of",
"wastewater",
"treatment",
"bonds",
"by",
"the",
"New",
"Jersey",
"Wastewater",
"Treatment",
"Trust",
"was",
"more",
"than",
"half",
"sold",
"by",
"late",
"in",
"the",
"session",
",",
"according",
"to",
"lead",
"underwriter",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"Capital",
"Markets",
".",
"The",
"debt",
"was",
"reoffered",
"priced",
"to",
"yield",
"from",
"6",
"%",
"in",
"1991",
"to",
"7.15",
"%",
"in",
"2008-2009",
".",
"Foreign",
"Bonds",
"Most",
"foreign",
"government",
"bonds",
"markets",
"were",
"quiet",
".",
"West",
"German",
"bonds",
"firmed",
"a",
"bit",
"after",
"Monday",
"'s",
"fall",
",",
"but",
"traders",
"said",
"the",
"market",
"remains",
"bearish",
"due",
"to",
"speculation",
"that",
"interest",
"rates",
"could",
"rise",
"again",
".",
"In",
"a",
"speech",
"given",
"Friday",
"but",
"released",
"late",
"Monday",
",",
"Bundesbank",
"Vice",
"President",
"Helmut",
"Schlesinger",
"suggested",
"that",
"it",
"was",
"risky",
"to",
"claim",
"that",
"the",
"booming",
"German",
"economy",
"has",
"reached",
"the",
"peak",
"of",
"its",
"cycle",
".",
"His",
"comments",
"were",
"interpreted",
"as",
"a",
"sign",
"that",
"higher",
"interest",
"rates",
"are",
"possible",
".",
"On",
"Oct.",
"5",
",",
"the",
"Bundesbank",
"raised",
"the",
"Lombard",
"and",
"discount",
"rates",
"by",
"one",
"percentage",
"point",
"to",
"8",
"%",
"and",
"6",
"%",
",",
"respectively",
",",
"the",
"highest",
"levels",
"in",
"seven",
"years",
".",
"Germany",
"'s",
"7",
"%",
"bond",
"due",
"October",
"1999",
"was",
"unchanged",
"at",
"99.35",
"to",
"yield",
"7.09",
"%",
"while",
"the",
"6",
"3/4",
"%",
"notes",
"due",
"July",
"1994",
"rose",
"0.025",
"point",
"to",
"97.275",
"to",
"yield",
"7.445",
"%",
".",
"Japanese",
"government",
"bonds",
"showed",
"little",
"change",
".",
"Japan",
"'s",
"benchmark",
"No.",
"111",
"issue",
"due",
"1998",
"ended",
"on",
"brokers",
"'",
"screens",
"at",
"95.90",
",",
"down",
"0.02",
"point",
",",
"to",
"yield",
"5.435",
"%",
".",
"British",
"government",
"bonds",
"were",
"little",
"changed",
"as",
"investors",
"awaited",
"an",
"address",
"on",
"economic",
"policy",
"by",
"John",
"Major",
",",
"the",
"new",
"Chancellor",
"of",
"the",
"Exchequer",
".",
"Britain",
"'s",
"benchmark",
"11",
"3/4",
"%",
"bond",
"due",
"2003/2007",
"rose",
"2/32",
"to",
"111",
"1/2",
"to",
"yield",
"10.14",
"%",
"while",
"the",
"11",
"3/4",
"%",
"notes",
"due",
"1991",
"were",
"unchanged",
"at",
"98",
"21/32",
"to",
"yield",
"12.95",
"%",
"."
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[
"YOU",
"WENT",
"to",
"college",
"and",
"thought",
"you",
"got",
"an",
"education",
".",
"Now",
"you",
"discover",
"that",
"you",
"never",
"learned",
"the",
"most",
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":",
"How",
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".",
"True",
",",
"when",
"you",
"went",
"to",
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",",
"there",
"was",
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"much",
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".",
"Stick",
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"an",
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"watch",
"it",
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".",
"Now",
",",
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"say",
"it",
"'s",
"time",
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"some",
"risks",
"if",
"you",
"want",
"the",
"kind",
"of",
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"that",
"will",
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"your",
"toddler",
"a",
"ticket",
"to",
"Prestige",
"U.",
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"18",
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".",
"In",
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",",
"throw",
"away",
"the",
"passbook",
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"go",
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"the",
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".",
"The",
"reason",
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"cost",
".",
"Nothing",
"in",
"the",
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"parents",
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".",
"Tuitions",
"at",
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"colleges",
"rose",
"154",
"%",
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"10",
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"in",
"June",
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"year",
";",
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"77",
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".",
"A",
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"19,395",
".",
"By",
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",",
"when",
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",",
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",",
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"a",
"few",
"pizzas-with-everything",
"at",
"exam",
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".",
"Stanford",
",",
"MIT",
"and",
"other",
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"cost",
"no",
"less",
".",
"So",
"what",
"'s",
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"parent",
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"do",
"?",
"Some",
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"are",
"suggesting",
",",
"in",
"effect",
",",
"a",
"bet",
"on",
"a",
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"pool",
"--",
"maybe",
"even",
"on",
"margin",
".",
"Others",
"prefer",
"deep-discount",
"zero-coupon",
"bonds",
".",
"Still",
"others",
"say",
",",
"Why",
"not",
"take",
"a",
"chance",
"on",
"a",
"high-octane",
"growth",
"fund",
"?",
"``",
"You",
"'re",
"not",
"going",
"to",
"make",
"it",
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"a",
"5",
"%",
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",",
"''",
"says",
"James",
"Riepe",
",",
"director",
"of",
"mutual",
"funds",
"at",
"T.",
"Rowe",
"Price",
".",
"To",
"get",
"the",
"necessary",
"growth",
",",
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"Murray",
"Ruffel",
",",
"a",
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",",
"``",
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"need",
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"to",
"the",
"stock",
"market",
".",
"''",
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",",
"a",
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"never",
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".",
"It",
"never",
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",",
"that",
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",",
"unless",
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"do",
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".",
"Or",
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"zero-coupon",
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"turn",
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"not",
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"discounted",
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"'s",
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".",
"That",
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"the",
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"'s",
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".",
"Although",
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"are",
"advising",
"risk",
",",
"no",
"one",
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"a",
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"if",
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"n't",
"pay",
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".",
"Help",
"may",
"be",
"on",
"the",
"way",
".",
"The",
"antitrust",
"division",
"of",
"the",
"Justice",
"Department",
"is",
"investigating",
"the",
"oddly",
"similar",
"tuition",
"charges",
"and",
"increases",
"among",
"the",
"top",
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".",
"Fear",
"of",
"the",
"price",
"police",
"could",
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"things",
"off",
"in",
"the",
"1990s",
".",
"And",
"then",
"there",
"'s",
"always",
"State",
"U",
".",
"But",
"parents",
"'",
"craving",
"for",
"a",
"top-rated",
"education",
"for",
"their",
"children",
"is",
"growing",
"like",
"their",
"taste",
"for",
"fancy",
"wheels",
"and",
"vintage",
"wine",
".",
"Belatedly",
"aware",
"of",
"public",
"concern",
",",
"lawmakers",
"and",
"financial",
"middlemen",
"are",
"working",
"overtime",
"to",
"create",
"and",
"sell",
"college",
"savings",
"and",
"investment",
"schemes",
".",
"Their",
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",",
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"or",
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",",
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"will",
"cost",
"so",
"much",
"by",
"whenever",
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"want",
"it",
"that",
"the",
"tried",
"and",
"true",
"wo",
"n't",
"do",
"anymore",
".",
"Forget",
"about",
"Treasury",
"bills",
"or",
"a",
"money-market",
"fund",
".",
"The",
"latest",
"wave",
"of",
"marketing",
"is",
"instructive",
".",
"Several",
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"--",
"including",
"the",
"Financial",
"Programs",
",",
"Franklin",
",",
"and",
"T.",
"Rowe",
"Price",
"mutual-fund",
"groups",
"and",
"the",
"Edward",
"D.",
"Jones",
"brokerage",
"house",
"--",
"are",
"advertising",
"``",
"college",
"planner",
"''",
"tables",
"and",
"charts",
"that",
"tell",
"you",
"how",
"much",
"you",
"need",
"to",
"put",
"aside",
"regularly",
".",
"The",
"calculations",
"generally",
"rely",
"on",
"an",
"after-tax",
"rate",
"of",
"return",
"of",
"8",
"%",
"annually",
"--",
"a",
"rate",
"historically",
"obtainable",
"by",
"the",
"individual",
"in",
"only",
"one",
"place",
",",
"the",
"stock",
"market",
".",
"Most",
"of",
"the",
"mailers",
"are",
"free",
",",
"but",
"Denver-based",
"Financial",
"Programs",
"sells",
",",
"for",
"$",
"15",
",",
"a",
"version",
"customized",
"to",
"the",
"age",
"of",
"the",
"child",
"and",
"the",
"college",
"of",
"choice",
".",
"The",
"figures",
"are",
"shocking",
".",
"To",
"build",
"a",
"nest",
"egg",
"that",
"would",
"pay",
"for",
"Stanford",
"when",
"a",
"current",
"first-grader",
"reaches",
"college",
"age",
",",
"parents",
"would",
"need",
"to",
"set",
"aside",
"$",
"773.94",
"a",
"month",
"--",
"for",
"12",
"years",
".",
"They",
"can",
"cut",
"this",
"to",
"$",
"691.09",
"a",
"month",
"if",
"the",
"investing",
"keeps",
"up",
"through",
"college",
".",
"And",
"they",
"can",
"further",
"reduce",
"the",
"monthly",
"amount",
"if",
"they",
"start",
"saving",
"earlier",
"--",
"when",
"mother",
"and",
"child",
"come",
"home",
"from",
"the",
"hospital",
".",
"Plugging",
"a",
"cheaper",
"college",
"into",
"the",
"formulas",
"still",
"does",
"n't",
"generate",
"an",
"installment",
"most",
"people",
"can",
"live",
"with",
".",
"Using",
"a",
"recent",
"average",
"private-school",
"cost",
"of",
"about",
"$",
"12,500",
"a",
"year",
",",
"T.",
"Rowe",
"Price",
"'s",
"planner",
"prescribes",
"$",
"450",
"monthly",
"if",
"the",
"plan",
"begins",
"when",
"the",
"child",
"is",
"six",
".",
"Since",
"the",
"formula",
"assumes",
"an",
"8",
"%",
"before-tax",
"return",
"in",
"a",
"mutual",
"fund",
",",
"there",
"would",
"also",
"be",
"$",
"16,500",
"in",
"taxes",
"to",
"pay",
"over",
"the",
"12",
"years",
".",
"Not",
"everyone",
"is",
"so",
"pessimistic",
".",
"``",
"People",
"are",
"basically",
"peddling",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"fear",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Arthur",
"Hauptman",
",",
"a",
"consultant",
"to",
"the",
"American",
"Council",
"on",
"Education",
"in",
"Washington",
".",
"He",
"takes",
"issue",
"with",
"projections",
"that",
"do",
"n't",
"factor",
"in",
"students",
"'",
"own",
"contribution",
",",
"which",
"reduces",
"most",
"parents",
"'",
"burden",
"substantially",
".",
"Still",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"``",
"it",
"'s",
"no",
"bad",
"thing",
"''",
"if",
"all",
"the",
"marketing",
"prods",
"people",
"into",
"putting",
"aside",
"a",
"little",
"more",
".",
"``",
"The",
"situation",
"you",
"want",
"to",
"avoid",
"is",
"having",
"somebody",
"not",
"save",
"anything",
"and",
"hope",
"they",
"'ll",
"be",
"able",
"to",
"do",
"it",
"out",
"of",
"current",
"income",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"That",
"'s",
"crazy",
".",
"''",
"His",
"advice",
":",
"Do",
"n't",
"panic",
".",
"Parents",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"should",
"aim",
"at",
"whatever",
"regular",
"investment",
"sum",
"they",
"can",
"afford",
".",
"Half",
"the",
"amount",
"that",
"the",
"investment",
"tables",
"suggest",
"might",
"be",
"a",
"good",
"goal",
",",
"he",
"adds",
".",
"That",
"way",
",",
"parents",
"will",
"reduce",
"borrowings",
"and",
"outlays",
"from",
"current",
"income",
"when",
"the",
"time",
"comes",
"to",
"pay",
"tuition",
".",
"Mr.",
"Hauptman",
"reckons",
"that",
"the",
"best",
"investment",
"choice",
"is",
"mutual",
"funds",
"because",
"they",
"are",
"managed",
"and",
"over",
"time",
"have",
"nearly",
"kept",
"up",
"with",
"the",
"broad",
"stock",
"averages",
".",
"He",
"favors",
"either",
"an",
"all-stock",
"fund",
"or",
"a",
"balanced",
"fund",
"that",
"mixes",
"both",
"stocks",
"and",
"bonds",
".",
"In",
"their",
"anxiety",
",",
"however",
",",
"parents",
"and",
"other",
"student",
"benefactors",
"are",
"flocking",
"to",
"new",
"schemes",
".",
"They",
"have",
"laid",
"out",
"about",
"$",
"1",
"billion",
"for",
"so-called",
"baccalaureate",
"zero-coupon",
"municipal",
"bonds",
"--",
"so",
"far",
"offered",
"by",
"Connecticut",
",",
"Illinois",
",",
"Virginia",
"and",
"eight",
"other",
"states",
".",
"And",
"they",
"have",
"bought",
"about",
"$",
"500",
"million",
"in",
"prepaid-tuition",
"plans",
",",
"offered",
"in",
"Michigan",
",",
"Florida",
"and",
"Wyoming",
".",
"The",
"prepaid",
"plans",
"take",
"payment",
"today",
"--",
"usually",
"at",
"current",
"tuitions",
"or",
"at",
"a",
"slight",
"discount",
"--",
"for",
"a",
"promise",
"that",
"tuition",
"will",
"be",
"covered",
"tomorrow",
".",
"The",
"baccalaureate",
"bonds",
"--",
"tax-free",
",",
"offered",
"in",
"small",
"denominations",
"and",
"usually",
"containing",
"a",
"provision",
"that",
"they",
"wo",
"n't",
"be",
"called",
"before",
"maturity",
"--",
"seem",
"to",
"be",
"tailor-made",
"for",
"college",
"savers",
".",
"Like",
"other",
"zeros",
",",
"they",
"pay",
"all",
"their",
"interest",
"at",
"maturity",
",",
"meaning",
"that",
"buyers",
"can",
"time",
"things",
"so",
"that",
"their",
"bonds",
"pay",
"off",
"just",
"when",
"Junior",
"graduates",
"from",
"high",
"school",
".",
"Their",
"compounding",
"effect",
"is",
"also",
"alluring",
".",
"In",
"June",
",",
"Virginia",
"sold",
"bonds",
"for",
"$",
"268.98",
"that",
"will",
"pay",
"$",
"1,000",
"in",
"2009",
".",
"But",
"Richard",
"Anderson",
",",
"head",
"of",
"the",
"Forum",
"for",
"College",
"Financing",
"Alternatives",
",",
"at",
"Columbia",
"University",
",",
"a",
"research",
"group",
"partly",
"financed",
"by",
"the",
"federal",
"government",
",",
"says",
"zeros",
"are",
"particularly",
"ill-suited",
".",
"Their",
"price",
"falls",
"further",
"than",
"that",
"of",
"other",
"bonds",
"when",
"inflation",
"and",
"interest",
"rates",
"kick",
"up",
".",
"That",
"wo",
"n't",
"matter",
"if",
"they",
"are",
"held",
"to",
"maturity",
",",
"but",
"if",
",",
"for",
"any",
"reason",
",",
"the",
"parents",
"need",
"to",
"sell",
"them",
"before",
"then",
",",
"there",
"could",
"be",
"a",
"severe",
"loss",
"of",
"principal",
".",
"Had",
"zeros",
"been",
"available",
"in",
"1972",
"and",
"had",
"parents",
"bought",
"a",
"face",
"amount",
"equal",
"to",
"four",
"years",
"'",
"tuition",
"at",
"the",
"time",
",",
"aiming",
"for",
"their",
"children",
"'s",
"1988",
"enrollment",
",",
"they",
"would",
"have",
"been",
"left",
"with",
"only",
"enough",
"to",
"pay",
"for",
"two",
"years",
",",
"Mr.",
"Anderson",
"figures",
".",
"Most",
"other",
"bonds",
",",
"however",
",",
"would",
"probably",
"not",
"have",
"fared",
"much",
"better",
".",
"The",
"prepaid",
"plans",
"may",
"be",
"a",
"good",
"bet",
",",
"provided",
"the",
"guarantee",
"of",
"future",
"tuition",
"is",
"secure",
".",
"Issuing",
"states",
"generally",
"limit",
"the",
"guarantees",
"to",
"in-state",
"institutions",
",",
"however",
",",
"and",
"buyers",
"get",
"refunds",
"without",
"much",
"interest",
"if",
"the",
"children",
"do",
"n't",
"attend",
"the",
"specified",
"schools",
".",
"Two",
"private",
"groups",
"are",
"seeking",
"Securities",
"and",
"Exchange",
"Commission",
"approval",
"for",
"plans",
"that",
"could",
"be",
"more",
"broadly",
"transferable",
".",
"Mr.",
"Anderson",
"wants",
"the",
"prestige",
"colleges",
"to",
"sponsor",
"such",
"a",
"plan",
".",
"The",
"issue",
"here",
"may",
"be",
"the",
"soundness",
"of",
"the",
"guarantee",
".",
"Prepayments",
",",
"much",
"like",
"mutual-fund",
"purchases",
",",
"are",
"pooled",
"for",
"investment",
".",
"Sponsors",
"are",
"naturally",
"counting",
"on",
"their",
"ability",
"to",
"keep",
"ahead",
"of",
"tuition",
"inflation",
"with",
"investment",
"returns",
".",
"But",
"buyers",
"are",
"essentially",
"betting",
"on",
"a",
"start-up",
"investment",
"fund",
"with",
"no",
"track",
"record",
"--",
"and",
"some",
"have",
"been",
"encouraged",
"to",
"borrow",
"to",
"do",
"so",
".",
"One",
"problem",
"is",
"that",
"the",
"Internal",
"Revenue",
"Service",
"has",
"decided",
"that",
"the",
"investment",
"earnings",
"and",
"gains",
"of",
"the",
"sponsors",
"'",
"funds",
"are",
"taxable",
".",
"The",
"colleges",
",",
"as",
"educational",
"institutions",
",",
"had",
"hoped",
"that",
"would",
"n't",
"be",
"the",
"case",
".",
"Based",
"on",
"historical",
"rates",
"of",
"return",
",",
"Mr.",
"Anderson",
"reckons",
"a",
"100",
"%",
"stock",
"portfolio",
",",
"indexed",
"to",
"the",
"market",
",",
"would",
"have",
"kept",
"up",
"with",
"tuition",
"and",
"taxes",
"in",
"the",
"20th",
"century",
".",
"But",
"sponsors",
"might",
"not",
"pick",
"the",
"stocks",
"that",
"will",
"match",
"the",
"market",
".",
"And",
"they",
"'re",
"leaning",
"more",
"toward",
"fixed",
"income",
",",
"whose",
"returns",
"after",
"tax",
"have",
"trailed",
"tuition",
"increases",
".",
"``",
"I",
"'m",
"not",
"sure",
"they",
"'re",
"going",
"to",
"make",
"it",
"work",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Anderson",
".",
"What",
"happens",
"if",
"the",
"sponsors",
"do",
"n't",
"have",
"the",
"cash",
"to",
"pay",
"the",
"tuitions",
"?",
"Florida",
"and",
"Wyoming",
"have",
"backed",
"up",
"their",
"guarantees",
"with",
"the",
"full",
"faith",
"and",
"credit",
"of",
"the",
"state",
"governments",
",",
"meaning",
"that",
"taxpayers",
"will",
"pick",
"up",
"any",
"slack",
".",
"Not",
"so",
"Michigan",
".",
"Its",
"plan",
"is",
"set",
"up",
"as",
"an",
"independent",
"agency",
".",
"The",
"state",
"says",
"there",
"'s",
"no",
"worry",
"--",
"investment",
"returns",
",",
"combined",
"with",
"fees",
"and",
"the",
"gains",
"from",
"unused",
"plans",
",",
"will",
"provide",
"all",
"the",
"cash",
"it",
"needs",
".",
"Mr.",
"Putka",
"covers",
"education",
"from",
"The",
"Wall",
"Street",
"Journal",
"'s",
"Boston",
"bureau",
".",
"If",
"you",
"start",
"saving",
"for",
"your",
"child",
"'s",
"eduction",
"on",
"Jan.",
"1",
",",
"1990",
",",
"here",
"'s",
"the",
"monthly",
"sum",
"you",
"will",
"need",
"to",
"invest",
"to",
"pay",
"for",
"four",
"years",
"at",
"Yale",
",",
"Notre",
"Dame",
"and",
"University",
"of",
"Minnesota",
".",
"Figures",
"assume",
"a",
"7",
"%",
"annual",
"rise",
"in",
"tuition",
",",
"fees",
",",
"room",
"and",
"board",
"and",
"an",
"8",
"%",
"annual",
"investment",
"return",
".",
"Note",
":",
"These",
"figures",
"are",
"only",
"for",
"mandatory",
"charges",
"and",
"do",
"n't",
"include",
"books",
",",
"transportation",
"etc",
".",
"*",
"For",
"in-state",
"students",
"Source",
":",
"PaineWebber",
"Inc",
"."
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".",
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",",
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",",
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"Poindexter",
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",",
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"adviser",
",",
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",",
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".",
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"Bay",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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"Terry",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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"124",
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[
"Presidio",
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".",
"Presidio",
",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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"Canada",
",",
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",",
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"the",
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"is",
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"and",
"focus",
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",",
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"other",
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".",
"A",
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"Canada",
",",
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"'s",
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",",
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"account",
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"oil",
"and",
"35",
"million",
"cubic",
"feet",
"of",
"gas",
"a",
"day",
".",
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"Canada",
"will",
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",",
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"a",
"specific",
"estimate",
".",
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"is",
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"to",
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"by",
"Nov.",
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[
"ORTEGA",
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"said",
"elections",
"were",
"threatened",
".",
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",",
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"promoting",
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".",
"''",
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"'s",
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"25",
"elections",
",",
"Ortega",
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"renewed",
"U.S.",
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"aid",
"to",
"the",
"Contras",
"could",
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"the",
"balloting",
".",
"He",
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"U.S.",
"assistance",
"should",
"be",
"used",
"to",
"demobilize",
"the",
"rebels",
".",
"A",
"White",
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"``",
"deplorable",
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"brushed",
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"talk",
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"renewing",
"military",
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".",
"The",
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"military",
"command",
",",
"in",
"a",
"statement",
"from",
"Honduras",
",",
"said",
"Sandinista",
"troops",
"had",
"launched",
"a",
"major",
"offensive",
"against",
"the",
"rebel",
"forces",
".",
"East",
"German",
"leader",
"Krenz",
"called",
"the",
"protests",
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"a",
"``",
"good",
"sign",
",",
"''",
"saying",
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"many",
"of",
"those",
"marching",
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"freedoms",
"were",
"showing",
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"for",
"``",
"the",
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"socialism",
".",
"''",
"The",
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"Party",
"chief",
",",
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"for",
"talks",
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"officials",
",",
"also",
"said",
"East",
"Germany",
"would",
"follow",
"Gorbachev",
"'s",
"restructuring",
"plans",
".",
"Thousands",
"of",
"East",
"Germans",
"fled",
"to",
"Czechoslovakia",
"after",
"the",
"East",
"Berlin",
"government",
"lifted",
"travel",
"restrictions",
".",
"The",
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"movement",
"was",
"imposed",
"last",
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"after",
"a",
"massive",
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"emigres",
"to",
"West",
"Germany",
".",
"Also",
",",
"a",
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"for",
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"first",
"time",
"said",
"the",
"future",
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"the",
"Berlin",
"Wall",
"could",
"be",
"open",
"to",
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".",
"Health",
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"plan",
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"a",
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"federal",
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"of",
"research",
"involving",
"fetal-tissue",
"transplants",
".",
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"assistant",
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"secretary",
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"the",
"ban",
"``",
"should",
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"continued",
"indefinitely",
".",
"''",
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"researchers",
"believe",
"such",
"transplants",
"could",
"help",
"treat",
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"like",
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"'s",
",",
"anti-abortionists",
"oppose",
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".",
"Rep.",
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"today",
"a",
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"acid",
"rain",
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"The",
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"is",
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"and",
"lobbyists",
"as",
"significantly",
"weaker",
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"the",
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"cut",
"utility",
"emissions",
".",
"House-Senate",
"conferees",
"approved",
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"of",
"a",
"package",
"for",
"more",
"than",
"$",
"500",
"million",
"in",
"economic",
"aid",
"for",
"Poland",
".",
"The",
"plan",
"relies",
"heavily",
"on",
"$",
"240",
"million",
"in",
"credit",
"and",
"loan",
"guarantees",
"in",
"fiscal",
"1990",
"in",
"hopes",
"of",
"stimulating",
"future",
"trade",
"and",
"investment",
".",
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"nationalist",
"guerrillas",
"of",
"crossing",
"from",
"bases",
"in",
"neighboring",
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",",
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"plans",
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"'s",
"independence",
"from",
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".",
"South",
"African",
"troops",
"were",
"placed",
"on",
"alert",
".",
"Guerrilla",
"leaders",
"said",
"Pretoria",
"was",
"attempting",
"to",
"sabotage",
"next",
"week",
"'s",
"elections",
"in",
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".",
"Gunmen",
"in",
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"assassinated",
"a",
"Saudi",
"Arabian",
"Embassy",
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",",
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[
"The",
"oil",
"industry",
"'s",
"middling",
"profits",
"could",
"persist",
"through",
"the",
"rest",
"of",
"the",
"year",
".",
"Major",
"oil",
"companies",
"in",
"the",
"next",
"few",
"days",
"are",
"expected",
"to",
"report",
"much",
"less",
"robust",
"earnings",
"than",
"they",
"did",
"for",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
"a",
"year",
"ago",
",",
"largely",
"reflecting",
"deteriorating",
"chemical",
"prices",
"and",
"gasoline",
"profitability",
".",
"The",
"gasoline",
"picture",
"may",
"improve",
"this",
"quarter",
",",
"but",
"chemicals",
"are",
"likely",
"to",
"remain",
"weak",
",",
"industry",
"executives",
"and",
"analysts",
"say",
",",
"reducing",
"chances",
"that",
"profits",
"could",
"equal",
"their",
"year-earlier",
"performance",
".",
"The",
"industry",
"is",
"``",
"seeing",
"a",
"softening",
"somewhat",
"in",
"volume",
"and",
"certainly",
"in",
"price",
"in",
"petrochemicals",
",",
"''",
"Glenn",
"Cox",
",",
"president",
"of",
"Phillips",
"Petroleum",
"Co.",
",",
"said",
"in",
"an",
"interview",
".",
"``",
"That",
"change",
"will",
"obviously",
"impact",
"third",
"and",
"fourth",
"quarter",
"earnings",
"''",
"for",
"the",
"industry",
"in",
"general",
",",
"he",
"added",
".",
"He",
"did",
"n't",
"forecast",
"Phillips",
"'s",
"results",
".",
"But",
"securities",
"analysts",
"say",
"Phillips",
"will",
"be",
"among",
"the",
"companies",
"hard-hit",
"by",
"weak",
"chemical",
"prices",
"and",
"will",
"probably",
"post",
"a",
"drop",
"in",
"third-quarter",
"earnings",
".",
"So",
",",
"too",
",",
"many",
"analysts",
"predict",
",",
"will",
"Exxon",
"Corp.",
",",
"Chevron",
"Corp.",
"and",
"Amoco",
"Corp",
".",
"Typical",
"is",
"what",
"happened",
"to",
"the",
"price",
"of",
"ethylene",
",",
"a",
"major",
"commodity",
"chemical",
"produced",
"in",
"vast",
"amounts",
"by",
"many",
"oil",
"companies",
".",
"It",
"has",
"plunged",
"13",
"%",
"since",
"July",
"to",
"around",
"26",
"cents",
"a",
"pound",
".",
"A",
"year",
"ago",
"ethylene",
"sold",
"for",
"33",
"cents",
",",
"peaking",
"at",
"about",
"34",
"cents",
"last",
"December",
".",
"A",
"big",
"reason",
"for",
"the",
"chemical",
"price",
"retreat",
"is",
"overexpansion",
".",
"Beginning",
"in",
"mid-1987",
",",
"prices",
"began",
"accelerating",
"as",
"a",
"growing",
"U.S.",
"economy",
"and",
"the",
"weak",
"dollar",
"spurred",
"demand",
".",
"Companies",
"added",
"capacity",
"furiously",
".",
"Now",
",",
"greatly",
"increased",
"supplies",
"are",
"on",
"the",
"market",
",",
"while",
"the",
"dollar",
"is",
"stronger",
",",
"and",
"domestic",
"economic",
"growth",
"is",
"slower",
".",
"Third-quarter",
"profits",
"from",
"gasoline",
"were",
"weaker",
".",
"``",
"Refining",
"margins",
"were",
"so",
"good",
"in",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
"of",
"last",
"year",
"and",
"generally",
"not",
"very",
"good",
"this",
"year",
",",
"''",
"said",
"William",
"Randol",
",",
"a",
"securities",
"analyst",
"at",
"First",
"Boston",
"Corp",
".",
"Oil",
"company",
"refineries",
"ran",
"flat",
"out",
"to",
"prepare",
"for",
"a",
"robust",
"holiday",
"driving",
"season",
"in",
"July",
"and",
"August",
"that",
"did",
"n't",
"materialize",
".",
"The",
"excess",
"supply",
"pushed",
"gasoline",
"prices",
"down",
"in",
"that",
"period",
".",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"crude",
"oil",
"prices",
"were",
"up",
"some",
"from",
"a",
"year",
"earlier",
",",
"further",
"pressuring",
"profitability",
".",
"Refiners",
"say",
"margins",
"picked",
"up",
"in",
"September",
",",
"and",
"many",
"industry",
"officials",
"believe",
"gasoline",
"profits",
"will",
"rebound",
"this",
"quarter",
",",
"though",
"still",
"not",
"to",
"the",
"level",
"of",
"1988",
"'s",
"fourth",
"quarter",
".",
"During",
"the",
"1988",
"second",
"half",
",",
"many",
"companies",
"posted",
"record",
"gasoline",
"and",
"chemical",
"profits",
".",
"Crude",
"oil",
"production",
"may",
"turn",
"out",
"to",
"be",
"the",
"most",
"surprising",
"element",
"of",
"companies",
"'",
"earnings",
"this",
"year",
".",
"Prices",
"--",
"averaging",
"roughly",
"$",
"2",
"a",
"barrel",
"higher",
"in",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
"than",
"a",
"year",
"earlier",
"--",
"have",
"stayed",
"well",
"above",
"most",
"companies",
"'",
"expectations",
".",
"Demand",
"has",
"been",
"much",
"stronger",
"than",
"anticipated",
",",
"and",
"it",
"typically",
"accelerates",
"in",
"the",
"fourth",
"quarter",
".",
"``",
"We",
"could",
"see",
"higher",
"oil",
"prices",
"this",
"year",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Bryan",
"Jacoboski",
",",
"an",
"analyst",
"at",
"PaineWebber",
"Inc",
".",
"That",
"will",
"translate",
"into",
"sharply",
"higher",
"production",
"profits",
",",
"particularly",
"compared",
"with",
"last",
"year",
"when",
"oil",
"prices",
"steadily",
"fell",
"to",
"below",
"$",
"13",
"a",
"barrel",
"in",
"the",
"fourth",
"quarter",
".",
"While",
"oil",
"prices",
"have",
"been",
"better",
"than",
"expected",
",",
"natural",
"gas",
"prices",
"have",
"been",
"worse",
".",
"In",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
",",
"they",
"averaged",
"about",
"5",
"%",
"less",
"than",
"they",
"were",
"in",
"1988",
".",
"The",
"main",
"reason",
"remains",
"weather",
".",
"Last",
"summer",
"was",
"notable",
"for",
"a",
"heat",
"wave",
"and",
"drought",
"that",
"caused",
"utilities",
"to",
"burn",
"more",
"natural",
"gas",
"to",
"feed",
"increased",
"electrical",
"demand",
"from",
"air",
"conditioning",
"use",
".",
"This",
"summer",
",",
"on",
"the",
"other",
"hand",
",",
"had",
"milder",
"weather",
"than",
"usual",
".",
"``",
"We",
"'ve",
"been",
"very",
"disappointed",
"in",
"the",
"performance",
"of",
"natural",
"gas",
"prices",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Cox",
",",
"Phillips",
"'s",
"president",
".",
"``",
"The",
"lagging",
"gas",
"price",
"is",
"not",
"going",
"to",
"assist",
"fourth",
"quarter",
"performance",
"as",
"many",
"had",
"expected",
".",
"''",
"Going",
"into",
"the",
"fourth",
"quarter",
",",
"natural",
"gas",
"prices",
"are",
"anywhere",
"from",
"8",
"%",
"to",
"17",
"%",
"lower",
"than",
"a",
"year",
"earlier",
".",
"For",
"instance",
",",
"natural",
"gas",
"currently",
"produced",
"along",
"the",
"Gulf",
"Coast",
"is",
"selling",
"on",
"the",
"spot",
"market",
"for",
"around",
"$",
"1.47",
"a",
"thousand",
"cubic",
"feet",
",",
"down",
"13",
"%",
"from",
"$",
"1.69",
"a",
"thousand",
"cubic",
"feet",
"a",
"year",
"ago",
"."
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[
"IF",
"YOU",
"FORCE",
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"planners",
"to",
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".",
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"12",
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"Only",
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"growth",
".",
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"an",
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"major",
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".",
"A",
"slim",
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"(",
"51",
"%",
")",
"think",
"stock",
"prices",
"will",
"be",
"higher",
"in",
"August",
"1990",
"than",
"they",
"were",
"in",
"August",
"1989",
".",
"Their",
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"the",
"same",
".",
"Some",
"50",
"%",
"expect",
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"in",
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"local",
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"to",
"increase",
"in",
"value",
"over",
"the",
"next",
"12",
"months",
".",
"By",
"contrast",
",",
"only",
"32",
"%",
"expect",
"an",
"increase",
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"the",
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".",
"Since",
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"when",
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",",
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"believe",
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".",
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"12",
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"actually",
"predicted",
"a",
"recession",
",",
"many",
"respondents",
"were",
"taking",
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"better-safe-than",
"sorry",
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".",
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"third",
"said",
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"have",
"made",
"some",
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"to",
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"a",
"possible",
"recession",
".",
"For",
"the",
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"part",
",",
"the",
"changes",
"were",
"``",
"slight",
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"have",
"n't",
"tried",
"to",
"make",
"their",
"portfolios",
"more",
"recession-resistant",
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"about",
"evenly",
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"``",
"do",
"n't",
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"trying",
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"predict",
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"who",
"``",
"do",
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".",
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[
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",",
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[
"Few",
"people",
"are",
"aware",
"that",
"the",
"federal",
"government",
"lends",
"almost",
"as",
"much",
"money",
"as",
"it",
"borrows",
".",
"From",
"1980",
"to",
"1988",
",",
"while",
"federal",
"budget",
"deficits",
"totaled",
"$",
"1.41",
"trillion",
",",
"the",
"government",
"issued",
"$",
"394",
"billion",
"of",
"new",
"direct",
"loans",
"and",
"an",
"additional",
"$",
"756",
"billion",
"of",
"new",
"primary",
"loan",
"guarantees",
".",
"These",
"figures",
"omit",
"secondary",
"guarantees",
",",
"deposit",
"insurance",
",",
"and",
"the",
"activities",
"of",
"Government-Sponsored",
"Enterprises",
"(",
"a",
"huge",
"concern",
"in",
"its",
"own",
"right",
",",
"as",
"detailed",
"on",
"this",
"page",
"May",
"3",
")",
".",
"Federal",
"credit",
"programs",
"date",
"back",
"to",
"the",
"New",
"Deal",
",",
"and",
"were",
"meant",
"to",
"break",
"even",
"financially",
".",
"Since",
"the",
"1950s",
",",
"federal",
"lending",
"has",
"experienced",
"extraordinary",
"growth",
"in",
"credit",
"volume",
",",
"subsidy",
"rates",
",",
"and",
"policy",
"applications",
",",
"spurred",
"on",
"by",
"the",
"growth",
"of",
"government",
"in",
"general",
"and",
"budget",
"gimmicks",
"and",
"deceptive",
"management",
"in",
"particular",
".",
"As",
"we",
"will",
"see",
",",
"many",
"of",
"these",
"obligations",
"do",
"n't",
"show",
"up",
"as",
"part",
"of",
"the",
"federal",
"deficit",
".",
"But",
"recent",
"events",
"indicate",
"that",
"federal",
"credit",
"is",
"out",
"of",
"control",
".",
"Student",
"loan",
"defaults",
"remain",
"high",
"at",
"about",
"12",
"%",
",",
"and",
"the",
"program",
"has",
"been",
"rocked",
"by",
"allegations",
"of",
"fraud",
"and",
"mismanagement",
".",
"Farmers",
"Home",
"Administration",
"(",
"FmHA",
")",
"loans",
"have",
"turned",
"into",
"de",
"facto",
"giveaway",
"programs",
";",
"losses",
"over",
"the",
"next",
"three",
"years",
"are",
"expected",
"to",
"exceed",
"$",
"20",
"billion",
".",
"Defaults",
"on",
"Veterans",
"Affairs",
"loan",
"guarantees",
"have",
"quadrupled",
"in",
"the",
"past",
"eight",
"years",
".",
"Last",
"month",
",",
"the",
"General",
"Accounting",
"Office",
"reported",
"that",
"defaults",
"in",
"Federal",
"Housing",
"Administration",
"guarantees",
"were",
"five",
"times",
"as",
"high",
"as",
"previously",
"estimated",
",",
"and",
"that",
"FHA",
"'s",
"equity",
"fell",
"to",
"minus",
"$",
"2.9",
"billion",
".",
"GAO",
"'s",
"findings",
"are",
"particularly",
"troubling",
"because",
"the",
"FHA",
"has",
"about",
"$",
"300",
"billion",
"in",
"obligations",
"outstanding",
"and",
"had",
"previously",
"been",
"considered",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"most",
"financially",
"secure",
"credit",
"programs",
".",
"Scores",
"of",
"other",
"credit",
"programs",
",",
"subsidizing",
"agriculture",
",",
"small",
"business",
",",
"exporters",
",",
"defense",
",",
"energy",
",",
"transportation",
"and",
"others",
",",
"are",
"less",
"visible",
"but",
"in",
"no",
"better",
"shape",
".",
"If",
"the",
"programs",
"continue",
"their",
"present",
"path",
",",
"the",
"potential",
"government",
"losses",
"are",
"staggering",
":",
"The",
"federal",
"government",
"holds",
"$",
"222",
"billion",
"in",
"direct",
"loans",
"outstanding",
"and",
"backs",
"an",
"additional",
"$",
"550",
"billion",
"in",
"primary",
"guarantees",
".",
"(",
"Secondary",
"guarantees",
"of",
"pools",
"of",
"FHA",
"-",
"and",
"VA-backed",
"loans",
"by",
"the",
"agency",
"known",
"as",
"Ginnie",
"Mae",
"currently",
"exceed",
"$",
"330",
"billion",
".",
")",
"Although",
"external",
"events",
"have",
"contributed",
"to",
"the",
"morass",
",",
"the",
"principal",
"causes",
"of",
"the",
"current",
"crisis",
"are",
"internal",
"and",
"generic",
"to",
"all",
"programs",
".",
"To",
"reduce",
"the",
"risks",
"while",
"still",
"retaining",
"the",
"legitimate",
"benefits",
"these",
"programs",
"can",
"provide",
",",
"credit",
"policy",
"must",
":",
"1",
".",
"Use",
"credit",
"to",
"improve",
"the",
"operation",
"of",
"capital",
"markets",
",",
"not",
"to",
"provide",
"subsidies",
".",
"There",
"is",
"a",
"fundamental",
"conflict",
"between",
"providing",
"a",
"subsidy",
"and",
"maintaining",
"the",
"integrity",
"of",
"a",
"credit",
"program",
".",
"If",
"the",
"program",
"is",
"meant",
"to",
"provide",
"a",
"subsidy",
",",
"collecting",
"the",
"debt",
"defeats",
"the",
"original",
"goal",
".",
"Thus",
",",
"subsidized",
"loans",
"tend",
"to",
"turn",
"into",
"giveaway",
"programs",
",",
"with",
"increasing",
"subsidy",
"and",
"default",
"rates",
"over",
"time",
".",
"To",
"avoid",
"this",
"problem",
",",
"government",
"should",
"issue",
"credit",
"only",
"if",
"it",
"intends",
"to",
"use",
"every",
"legal",
"method",
"to",
"collect",
".",
"In",
"contrast",
",",
"credit",
"programs",
"can",
"be",
"appropriate",
"tools",
"to",
"improve",
"the",
"operation",
"of",
"capital",
"markets",
".",
"For",
"example",
",",
"legal",
"restrictions",
"on",
"interstate",
"banking",
"once",
"inhibited",
"the",
"supply",
"of",
"credit",
"to",
"the",
"agricultural",
"sector",
".",
"Farm",
"lending",
"was",
"enacted",
"to",
"correct",
"this",
"problem",
"by",
"providing",
"a",
"reliable",
"flow",
"of",
"lendable",
"funds",
".",
"However",
",",
"this",
"in",
"no",
"way",
"justifies",
"the",
"huge",
"government",
"subsidies",
"and",
"losses",
"on",
"such",
"loans",
".",
"Credit",
"policy",
"should",
"separate",
"these",
"two",
"competing",
"objectives",
"and",
"eliminate",
"aspects",
"that",
"provide",
"the",
"subsidy",
".",
"For",
"example",
",",
"student",
"loans",
"currently",
"attempt",
"to",
"subsidize",
"college",
"attendance",
"and",
"mitigate",
"problems",
"created",
"by",
"the",
"fact",
"that",
"students",
"'",
"future",
"earnings",
"are",
"not",
"accepted",
"as",
"collateral",
".",
"The",
"program",
"provides",
"highly",
"subsidized",
"loans",
"to",
"any",
"student",
"whose",
"family",
"earns",
"less",
"than",
"a",
"particular",
"amount",
".",
"High",
"default",
"rates",
",",
"a",
"low",
"interest",
"rate",
",",
"and",
"government",
"coverage",
"of",
"all",
"interest",
"costs",
"while",
"the",
"student",
"is",
"in",
"school",
"make",
"program",
"costs",
"extremely",
"high",
".",
"Families",
"that",
"do",
"not",
"need",
"the",
"loan",
"can",
"make",
"money",
"simply",
"by",
"putting",
"the",
"loan",
"in",
"the",
"bank",
"and",
"paying",
"it",
"back",
"when",
"the",
"student",
"graduates",
".",
"In",
"contrast",
",",
"a",
"student",
"loan",
"program",
"that",
"was",
"meant",
"solely",
"to",
"correct",
"capital-market",
"imperfections",
"would",
"allow",
"loans",
"for",
"any",
"student",
",",
"regardless",
"of",
"family",
"income",
",",
"at",
"market",
"or",
"near-market",
"rates",
".",
"While",
"the",
"student",
"was",
"in",
"school",
",",
"interest",
"costs",
"would",
"either",
"be",
"paid",
"by",
"the",
"student",
"or",
"added",
"to",
"the",
"loan",
"balance",
".",
"This",
"program",
",",
"combined",
"with",
"cash",
"grants",
"to",
"needy",
"students",
",",
"would",
"reduce",
"program",
"costs",
"and",
"much",
"more",
"effectively",
"target",
"the",
"intended",
"beneficiaries",
".",
"2",
".",
"Provide",
"better",
"incentives",
".",
"Given",
"the",
"structure",
"of",
"most",
"credit",
"programs",
",",
"it",
"is",
"surprising",
"that",
"default",
"rates",
"are",
"not",
"even",
"higher",
".",
"Guarantee",
"rates",
"are",
"typically",
"100",
"%",
",",
"giving",
"lenders",
"little",
"reason",
"to",
"screen",
"customers",
"carefully",
".",
"Reducing",
"those",
"rates",
"moderately",
"(",
"say",
",",
"to",
"75",
"%",
")",
"would",
"still",
"provide",
"substantial",
"assistance",
"to",
"borrowers",
".",
"But",
"it",
"would",
"also",
"encourage",
"lenders",
"to",
"choose",
"more",
"creditworthy",
"customers",
",",
"and",
"go",
"a",
"long",
"way",
"toward",
"reducing",
"defaults",
".",
"For",
"example",
",",
"the",
"Small",
"Business",
"Administration",
"has",
"had",
"reasonable",
"success",
"in",
"reducing",
"both",
"guarantee",
"rates",
"and",
"default",
"rates",
"in",
"its",
"Preferred",
"Lenders",
"'",
"Program",
".",
"Borrowers",
"'",
"incentives",
"are",
"equally",
"skewed",
".",
"Since",
"the",
"government",
"has",
"a",
"dismal",
"record",
"of",
"collecting",
"bad",
"debts",
",",
"the",
"costs",
"to",
"the",
"borrower",
"of",
"defaulting",
"are",
"usually",
"low",
".",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"it",
"is",
"often",
"possible",
"to",
"obtain",
"a",
"new",
"government",
"loan",
"even",
"if",
"existing",
"debts",
"are",
"not",
"paid",
"off",
".",
"Simple",
"policy",
"prescriptions",
"in",
"this",
"case",
"would",
"be",
"to",
"improve",
"debt",
"collection",
"(",
"taking",
"the",
"gloves",
"off",
"contracted",
"collection",
"agencies",
")",
"and",
"to",
"deny",
"new",
"credit",
"to",
"defaulters",
".",
"These",
"provisions",
"would",
"be",
"difficult",
"to",
"enforce",
"for",
"a",
"program",
"intended",
"to",
"provide",
"a",
"subsidy",
",",
"but",
"would",
"be",
"reasonable",
"and",
"effective",
"devices",
"for",
"programs",
"that",
"attempt",
"to",
"offset",
"market",
"imperfections",
".",
"3",
".",
"Record",
"the",
"true",
"costs",
"of",
"credit",
"programs",
"in",
"the",
"federal",
"budget",
".",
"Since",
"the",
"budget",
"measures",
"cash",
"flow",
",",
"a",
"new",
"$",
"1",
"direct",
"loan",
"is",
"treated",
"as",
"a",
"$",
"1",
"expenditure",
",",
"even",
"though",
"at",
"least",
"part",
"of",
"the",
"loan",
"will",
"be",
"paid",
"back",
".",
"Loan",
"guarantees",
"do",
"n't",
"appear",
"at",
"all",
"until",
"the",
"borrower",
"defaults",
",",
"so",
"new",
"guarantees",
"do",
"not",
"raise",
"the",
"deficit",
",",
"even",
"though",
"they",
"create",
"future",
"liabilities",
"for",
"the",
"government",
".",
"By",
"converting",
"an",
"expenditure",
"or",
"loan",
"to",
"a",
"guarantee",
",",
"the",
"government",
"can",
"ensure",
"the",
"same",
"flow",
"of",
"resources",
"and",
"reduce",
"the",
"current",
"deficit",
".",
"Predictably",
",",
"guarantees",
"outstanding",
"have",
"risen",
"by",
"$",
"130",
"billion",
"since",
"1985",
",",
"while",
"direct",
"loans",
"outstanding",
"have",
"fallen",
"by",
"$",
"30",
"billion",
".",
"The",
"true",
"budgetary",
"cost",
"of",
"a",
"credit",
"subsidy",
"is",
"the",
"discounted",
"value",
"of",
"the",
"net",
"costs",
"to",
"government",
".",
"This",
"figure",
"could",
"be",
"estimated",
"using",
"techniques",
"employed",
"by",
"private",
"lenders",
"to",
"forecast",
"losses",
",",
"or",
"determined",
"by",
"selling",
"loans",
"to",
"private",
"owners",
"(",
"without",
"federal",
"guarantees",
")",
".",
"Neither",
"technique",
"is",
"perfect",
",",
"but",
"both",
"are",
"better",
"than",
"the",
"current",
"system",
",",
"which",
"misstates",
"the",
"costs",
"of",
"new",
"credit",
"programs",
"by",
"amounts",
"that",
"vary",
"substantially",
"and",
"average",
"about",
"$",
"20",
"billion",
"annually",
",",
"according",
"to",
"the",
"Congressional",
"Budget",
"Office",
".",
"A",
"budget",
"that",
"reflected",
"the",
"real",
"costs",
"of",
"lending",
"would",
"eliminate",
"incentives",
"to",
"convert",
"spending",
"or",
"lending",
"programs",
"to",
"guarantees",
"and",
"would",
"let",
"taxpayers",
"know",
"what",
"Congress",
"is",
"committing",
"them",
"to",
".",
"4",
".",
"Impose",
"standard",
"accounting",
"and",
"administrative",
"practices",
".",
"Creative",
"accounting",
"is",
"a",
"hallmark",
"of",
"federal",
"credit",
".",
"Many",
"agencies",
"roll",
"over",
"their",
"debt",
",",
"paying",
"off",
"delinquent",
"loans",
"by",
"issuing",
"new",
"loans",
",",
"or",
"converting",
"defaulted",
"loan",
"guarantees",
"into",
"direct",
"loans",
".",
"In",
"any",
"case",
",",
"they",
"avoid",
"having",
"to",
"write",
"off",
"the",
"loans",
".",
"Some",
"agencies",
"simply",
"keep",
"bad",
"loans",
"on",
"the",
"books",
";",
"as",
"late",
"as",
"1987",
",",
"the",
"Export-Import",
"Bank",
"held",
"in",
"its",
"portfolio",
"at",
"face",
"value",
"loans",
"made",
"to",
"Cuba",
"in",
"the",
"1950s",
".",
"More",
"seriously",
",",
"FmHA",
"has",
"carried",
"several",
"billion",
"dollars",
"of",
"defaulted",
"loans",
"at",
"face",
"value",
".",
"Until",
"GAO",
"'s",
"recent",
"audit",
",",
"FHA",
"books",
"had",
"not",
"been",
"subject",
"to",
"a",
"complete",
"external",
"audit",
"in",
"15",
"years",
".",
"The",
"administration",
"of",
"federal",
"credit",
"should",
"closely",
"parallel",
"private",
"lending",
"practices",
",",
"including",
"the",
"development",
"of",
"a",
"loan",
"loss",
"reserve",
"and",
"regular",
"outside",
"audits",
".",
"Establishing",
"these",
"practices",
"would",
"permit",
"earlier",
"identification",
"of",
"emerging",
"financial",
"crises",
",",
"provide",
"better",
"information",
"for",
"loan",
"sales",
"and",
"budgeting",
"decisions",
",",
"and",
"reduce",
"fraud",
".",
"Government",
"lending",
"was",
"not",
"intended",
"to",
"be",
"a",
"way",
"to",
"obfuscate",
"spending",
"figures",
",",
"hide",
"fraudulent",
"activity",
",",
"or",
"provide",
"large",
"subsidies",
".",
"The",
"reforms",
"described",
"above",
"would",
"provide",
"a",
"more",
"limited",
",",
"but",
"clearer",
",",
"safer",
"and",
"ultimately",
"more",
"useful",
"role",
"for",
"government",
"as",
"a",
"lender",
".",
"Without",
"such",
"reforms",
",",
"credit",
"programs",
"will",
"continue",
"to",
"be",
"a",
"large-scale",
",",
"high-risk",
"proposition",
"for",
"taxpayers",
".",
"Mr.",
"Gale",
"is",
"an",
"assistant",
"professor",
"of",
"economics",
"at",
"UCLA",
"."
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"compound",
"compound",
"punct",
"dep",
"punct",
"mark",
"advcl",
"det",
"obj",
"case",
"nmod:poss",
"compound",
"nmod",
"case",
"compound",
"compound",
"punct",
"obl",
"nsubj",
"root",
"case",
"det",
"obl",
"mark",
"nsubj",
"ccomp",
"mark",
"xcomp",
"det",
"obj",
"advmod",
"case",
"compound",
"obl",
"case",
"compound",
"nummod",
"obl",
"punct"
] |
[
"Affiliated",
"Bankshares",
"of",
"Colorado",
"Inc.",
"said",
"it",
"agreed",
"to",
"sell",
"its",
"10",
"%",
"interest",
"in",
"Rocky",
"Mountain",
"Bankcard",
"Systems",
"for",
"$",
"18.5",
"million",
"to",
"Colorado",
"National",
"Bank",
"of",
"Denver",
"and",
"Central",
"Bank",
"of",
"Denver",
".",
"Colorado",
"National",
"is",
"a",
"unit",
"of",
"Colorado",
"National",
"Bankshares",
"Inc.",
"and",
"Central",
"is",
"a",
"unit",
"of",
"First",
"Bank",
"System",
"of",
"Minneapolis",
".",
"Affiliated",
"said",
"it",
"expects",
"to",
"record",
"a",
"pretax",
"gain",
"of",
"about",
"$",
"18.5",
"million",
"from",
"the",
"sale",
"of",
"the",
"credit-card",
"business",
",",
"which",
"should",
"more",
"than",
"offset",
"any",
"reduction",
"in",
"the",
"carrying",
"value",
"of",
"real",
"estate",
"and",
"real-estate",
"loans",
"on",
"its",
"books",
"."
] | [
2,
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2
] | [
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"case",
"compound",
"compound",
"obl",
"case",
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"cop",
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"compound",
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"nmod",
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"compound",
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"case",
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"nsubj",
"root",
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"ccomp",
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"xcomp",
"det",
"compound",
"obj",
"case",
"advmod",
"nmod",
"compound",
"nummod",
"case",
"det",
"nmod",
"case",
"det",
"compound",
"nmod",
"punct",
"nsubj",
"aux",
"advmod",
"case",
"acl:relcl",
"det",
"obj",
"case",
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"amod",
"nmod",
"case",
"amod",
"nmod",
"cc",
"compound",
"conj",
"case",
"nmod:poss",
"nmod",
"punct"
] |
[
"The",
"U.S.",
"economy",
"grew",
"at",
"a",
"moderate",
"2.5",
"%",
"annual",
"rate",
"in",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
",",
"the",
"same",
"pace",
"as",
"the",
"second",
"quarter",
",",
"despite",
"the",
"worst",
"trade",
"performance",
"in",
"six",
"years",
",",
"the",
"Commerce",
"Department",
"reported",
".",
"Personal",
"spending",
",",
"buoyed",
"by",
"a",
"burst",
"of",
"automobile",
"buying",
",",
"was",
"the",
"main",
"catalyst",
"to",
"the",
"economy",
"'s",
"expansion",
".",
"But",
"trade",
",",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"economy",
"'s",
"main",
"forces",
"in",
"the",
"past",
"few",
"years",
",",
"showed",
"a",
"sharp",
"deterioration",
".",
"Imports",
"of",
"goods",
"and",
"services",
"soared",
",",
"while",
"exports",
"were",
"flat",
".",
"Some",
"economists",
"found",
"the",
"mixture",
"ominous",
".",
"``",
"For",
"the",
"past",
"two",
"years",
",",
"the",
"foreign",
"trade",
"sector",
"has",
"been",
"a",
"major",
"contributor",
"to",
"economic",
"growth",
".",
"You",
"ca",
"n't",
"rely",
"now",
"solely",
"on",
"consumer",
"spending",
"to",
"sustain",
"the",
"economy",
"on",
"a",
"solid",
"growth",
"path",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Norman",
"Robertson",
",",
"chief",
"economist",
"at",
"Mellon",
"Bank",
"in",
"Pittsburgh",
".",
"Although",
"the",
"economy",
"showed",
"no",
"change",
"of",
"pace",
"from",
"the",
"second",
"quarter",
",",
"many",
"analysts",
"expect",
"it",
"to",
"slow",
"considerably",
"in",
"the",
"fourth",
"quarter",
"as",
"demand",
"for",
"autos",
"falls",
",",
"partly",
"because",
"of",
"higher",
"prices",
"on",
"models",
"introduced",
"last",
"month",
".",
"Many",
"economists",
"think",
"the",
"rise",
"in",
"the",
"value",
"of",
"the",
"U.S.",
"dollar",
"this",
"year",
"will",
"further",
"crimp",
"progress",
"in",
"trade",
",",
"because",
"it",
"makes",
"exports",
"more",
"expensive",
"and",
"imports",
"cheaper",
".",
"And",
"business",
"investment",
"--",
"which",
"slowed",
"in",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
",",
"according",
"to",
"yesterday",
"'s",
"report",
"--",
"is",
"expected",
"to",
"continue",
"to",
"be",
"sluggish",
".",
"A",
"sharp",
"reduction",
"in",
"inflation",
"was",
"by",
"far",
"the",
"brightest",
"spot",
"in",
"the",
"report",
"on",
"the",
"real",
"gross",
"national",
"product",
"--",
"the",
"inflation-adjusted",
"market",
"value",
"of",
"all",
"the",
"goods",
"and",
"services",
"the",
"economy",
"produced",
".",
"An",
"inflation",
"gauge",
"that",
"measures",
"the",
"quarterly",
"change",
"in",
"prices",
"of",
"an",
"array",
"of",
"goods",
"and",
"services",
"slowed",
"its",
"growth",
"to",
"a",
"2.9",
"%",
"annual",
"rate",
"in",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
"from",
"5",
"%",
"in",
"the",
"second",
".",
"Much",
"of",
"the",
"moderation",
"came",
"from",
"declining",
"energy",
"prices",
",",
"which",
"have",
"since",
"turned",
"up",
"a",
"bit",
",",
"analysts",
"said",
".",
"Consequently",
",",
"Michael",
"Darby",
",",
"undersecretary",
"for",
"economic",
"affairs",
"at",
"the",
"Commerce",
"Department",
",",
"said",
"inflation",
"probably",
"will",
"edge",
"up",
"from",
"the",
"third-quarter",
"rate",
"in",
"the",
"final",
"three",
"months",
"of",
"1989",
".",
"But",
"he",
"said",
"he",
"believes",
"the",
"second",
"quarter",
"'s",
"5",
"%",
"rate",
"``",
"will",
"prove",
"to",
"have",
"been",
"this",
"year",
"'s",
"peak",
"quarterly",
"inflation",
"rate",
".",
"''",
"Generally",
",",
"the",
"Bush",
"administration",
"expressed",
"satisfaction",
"with",
"the",
"economy",
"'s",
"progress",
"as",
"it",
"heads",
"into",
"its",
"eighth",
"year",
"of",
"sustained",
"growth",
"next",
"month",
".",
"Treasury",
"Secretary",
"Nicholas",
"Brady",
"called",
"the",
"2.5",
"%",
"pace",
"``",
"good",
",",
"solid",
"growth",
",",
"''",
"although",
"he",
"said",
"he",
"expects",
"the",
"expansion",
"to",
"slow",
"in",
"the",
"fourth",
"quarter",
".",
"He",
"added",
":",
"``",
"Inflation",
"is",
"lower",
"than",
"I",
"think",
"people",
"expected",
"it",
"to",
"be",
",",
"and",
"I",
"think",
"that",
"'s",
"good",
"news",
".",
"''",
"But",
"administration",
"officials",
"were",
"concerned",
"over",
"the",
"bleak",
"trade",
"report",
",",
"which",
"showed",
"the",
"deficit",
"in",
"the",
"country",
"'s",
"trade",
"of",
"goods",
"and",
"services",
"swelling",
"to",
"a",
"$",
"74",
"billion",
"annual",
"rate",
"in",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
"from",
"a",
"$",
"51",
"billion",
"rate",
"in",
"the",
"second",
"quarter",
".",
"Mr.",
"Darby",
"called",
"it",
"a",
"``",
"disappointment",
"''",
"but",
"predicted",
"exports",
"will",
"pick",
"up",
"again",
".",
"``",
"We",
"were",
"unprepared",
"for",
"the",
"deterioration",
"in",
"net",
"exports",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Daniel",
"Van",
"Dyke",
",",
"vice",
"president",
"of",
"U.S.",
"forecasting",
"at",
"Bank",
"of",
"America",
"in",
"San",
"Francisco",
".",
"``",
"I",
"ca",
"n't",
"believe",
"it",
"will",
"continue",
",",
"''",
"he",
"added",
",",
"noting",
"that",
"the",
"economies",
"of",
"the",
"country",
"'s",
"major",
"trading",
"partners",
"are",
"strong",
"and",
"prices",
"of",
"U.S.",
"products",
"are",
"still",
"competitive",
".",
"Some",
"analysts",
"also",
"were",
"disturbed",
"by",
"a",
"pickup",
"in",
"the",
"growth",
"of",
"business",
"inventories",
".",
"While",
"a",
"buildup",
"of",
"these",
"stocks",
"adds",
"to",
"GNP",
",",
"it",
"can",
"hurt",
"the",
"economy",
"because",
"a",
"pileup",
"of",
"unsold",
"goods",
"can",
"lead",
"to",
"production",
"cuts",
"and",
"layoffs",
".",
"According",
"to",
"the",
"report",
",",
"inventories",
"outside",
"the",
"farm",
"sector",
"grew",
"at",
"an",
"annual",
"rate",
"of",
"$",
"24.6",
"billion",
"in",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
",",
"up",
"from",
"a",
"$",
"19.5",
"billion",
"pace",
"in",
"the",
"second",
"quarter",
".",
"Manufacturers",
"'",
"stocks",
"fattened",
"at",
"an",
"$",
"18.4",
"billion",
"annual",
"rate",
",",
"up",
"from",
"$",
"8.3",
"billion",
".",
"``",
"That",
"suggests",
"there",
"is",
"a",
"little",
"more",
"inventory",
"overhang",
"than",
"some",
"people",
"expected",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Edward",
"Boss",
",",
"senior",
"financial",
"economist",
"at",
"Continental",
"Bank",
"in",
"Chicago",
".",
"``",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"think",
"it",
"'s",
"anything",
"that",
"'s",
"going",
"to",
"cause",
"a",
"downturn",
"in",
"economic",
"activity",
".",
"But",
"it",
"will",
"slow",
"production",
".",
"''",
"Devastation",
"from",
"Hurricane",
"Hugo",
",",
"which",
"slammed",
"into",
"the",
"Southeast",
"coast",
"in",
"late",
"September",
",",
"diminished",
"personal",
"income",
"by",
"about",
"$",
"4",
"billion",
",",
"the",
"department",
"said",
",",
"but",
"it",
"called",
"the",
"effect",
"on",
"the",
"roughly",
"$",
"5",
"trillion",
"economy",
"``",
"negligible",
".",
"''",
"Except",
"for",
"the",
"loss",
"from",
"the",
"hurricane",
",",
"all",
"the",
"figures",
"were",
"adjusted",
"for",
"seasonal",
"factors",
"and",
"inflation",
".",
"Here",
"are",
"some",
"of",
"the",
"major",
"components",
"of",
"the",
"gross",
"national",
"product",
"expressed",
"in",
"seasonally",
"adjusted",
"annual",
"rates",
"in",
"billions",
"of",
"constant",
"(",
"1982",
")",
"dollars",
":",
"In",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
",",
"the",
"implicit",
"price",
"deflator",
"fell",
"to",
"2.9",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"1982",
"average",
",",
"from",
"4.6",
"%",
"in",
"the",
"previous",
"quarter",
"."
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[
"General",
"Motors",
"Corp.",
"and",
"Ford",
"Motor",
"Co.",
"are",
"now",
"going",
"head",
"to",
"head",
"in",
"the",
"markets",
"for",
"shares",
"of",
"Jaguar",
"PLC",
",",
"as",
"GM",
"got",
"early",
"clearance",
"from",
"the",
"Federal",
"Trade",
"Commission",
"to",
"boost",
"its",
"stake",
"in",
"the",
"British",
"luxury",
"car",
"maker",
".",
"GM",
"confirmed",
"Friday",
"that",
"it",
"received",
"permission",
"late",
"Thursday",
"from",
"U.S.",
"antitrust",
"regulators",
"to",
"increase",
"its",
"Jaguar",
"holdings",
"past",
"the",
"$",
"15",
"million",
"level",
".",
"Ford",
"got",
"a",
"similar",
"go-ahead",
"earlier",
"in",
"October",
",",
"and",
"on",
"Friday",
",",
"Jaguar",
"announced",
"that",
"the",
"No.",
"2",
"U.S.",
"auto",
"maker",
"had",
"raised",
"its",
"stake",
"to",
"13.2",
"%",
",",
"or",
"24.2",
"million",
"shares",
",",
"from",
"12.4",
"%",
"earlier",
"in",
"the",
"week",
".",
"A",
"spokesman",
"for",
"GM",
",",
"the",
"No.",
"1",
"auto",
"maker",
",",
"declined",
"to",
"say",
"how",
"many",
"Jaguar",
"shares",
"that",
"company",
"owns",
".",
"In",
"late",
"trading",
"Friday",
",",
"Jaguar",
"shares",
"bucked",
"the",
"downward",
"tide",
"in",
"London",
"'s",
"stock",
"market",
"and",
"rose",
"five",
"pence",
"to",
"725",
"pence",
"(",
"$",
"11.44",
")",
".",
"Trading",
"volume",
"was",
"a",
"moderately",
"heavy",
"3.1",
"million",
"shares",
".",
"In",
"the",
"U.S.",
",",
"Jaguar",
"'s",
"American",
"depositary",
"receipts",
"were",
"among",
"the",
"most",
"active",
"issues",
"Friday",
"in",
"national",
"over-the-counter",
"trading",
"where",
"they",
"closed",
"at",
"$",
"11.625",
"each",
",",
"up",
"62.5",
"cents",
".",
"Analysts",
"expect",
"that",
"the",
"two",
"U.S.",
"auto",
"giants",
"will",
"move",
"quickly",
"to",
"buy",
"up",
"15",
"%",
"stakes",
"in",
"Jaguar",
",",
"setting",
"up",
"a",
"potential",
"bidding",
"war",
"for",
"the",
"prestigious",
"Jaguar",
"brand",
".",
"British",
"government",
"restrictions",
"prevent",
"any",
"single",
"shareholder",
"from",
"going",
"beyond",
"15",
"%",
"before",
"the",
"end",
"of",
"1990",
"without",
"government",
"permission",
".",
"The",
"British",
"government",
",",
"which",
"owned",
"Jaguar",
"until",
"1984",
",",
"still",
"holds",
"a",
"controlling",
"``",
"golden",
"share",
"''",
"in",
"the",
"company",
".",
"With",
"the",
"golden",
"share",
"as",
"protection",
",",
"Jaguar",
"officials",
"have",
"rebuffed",
"Ford",
"'s",
"overtures",
",",
"and",
"moved",
"instead",
"to",
"forge",
"an",
"alliance",
"with",
"GM",
".",
"Jaguar",
"officials",
"have",
"indicated",
"they",
"are",
"close",
"to",
"wrapping",
"up",
"a",
"friendly",
"alliance",
"with",
"GM",
"that",
"would",
"preserve",
"Jaguar",
"'s",
"independence",
",",
"but",
"no",
"deal",
"has",
"been",
"announced",
".",
"Ford",
",",
"on",
"the",
"other",
"hand",
",",
"has",
"said",
"it",
"'s",
"willing",
"to",
"bid",
"for",
"all",
"of",
"Jaguar",
",",
"despite",
"the",
"objections",
"of",
"Jaguar",
"chairman",
"Sir",
"John",
"Egan",
".",
"Analysts",
"continued",
"to",
"speculate",
"late",
"last",
"week",
"that",
"Ford",
"may",
"try",
"to",
"force",
"the",
"issue",
"by",
"calling",
"for",
"a",
"special",
"shareholder",
"'s",
"meeting",
"and",
"urging",
"that",
"the",
"government",
"and",
"Jaguar",
"holders",
"remove",
"the",
"barriers",
"to",
"a",
"full",
"bidding",
"contest",
"before",
"December",
"1990",
".",
"But",
"a",
"Ford",
"spokeswoman",
"in",
"Dearborn",
"said",
"Friday",
"the",
"company",
"has",
"n't",
"requested",
"such",
"a",
"meeting",
"yet",
".",
"Individuals",
"close",
"to",
"the",
"situation",
"believe",
"Ford",
"officials",
"will",
"seek",
"a",
"meeting",
"this",
"week",
"with",
"Sir",
"John",
"to",
"outline",
"their",
"proposal",
"for",
"a",
"full",
"bid",
".",
"Any",
"discussions",
"with",
"Ford",
"could",
"postpone",
"the",
"Jaguar-GM",
"deal",
",",
"headed",
"for",
"completion",
"within",
"the",
"next",
"two",
"weeks",
".",
"The",
"GM",
"agreement",
"is",
"expected",
"to",
"retain",
"Jaguar",
"'s",
"independence",
"by",
"involving",
"an",
"eventual",
"30",
"%",
"stake",
"for",
"the",
"U.S.",
"auto",
"giant",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"joint",
"manufacturing",
"and",
"marketing",
"ventures",
".",
"Jaguar",
"and",
"GM",
"hope",
"to",
"win",
"Jaguar",
"shareholders",
"approval",
"for",
"the",
"accord",
"partly",
"by",
"structuring",
"it",
"in",
"a",
"way",
"that",
"would",
"n't",
"preclude",
"a",
"full",
"Ford",
"bid",
"once",
"the",
"golden",
"share",
"expires",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"either",
"a",
"minority",
"-LCB-",
"stake",
"-RCB-",
"package",
"capable",
"of",
"getting",
"Jaguar",
"shareholder",
"approval",
"or",
"there",
"is",
"n't",
",",
"''",
"said",
"one",
"knowledgeable",
"individual",
".",
"``",
"If",
"there",
"is",
"n't",
",",
"-LCB-",
"the",
"deal",
"-RCB-",
"wo",
"n't",
"be",
"put",
"forward",
"''",
"to",
"shareholders",
".",
"Union",
"sentiment",
"also",
"could",
"influence",
"shareholder",
"reaction",
"to",
"a",
"Jaguar-GM",
"accord",
".",
"GM",
"'s",
"U.K.",
"unit",
"holds",
"crucial",
"talks",
"today",
"with",
"union",
"officials",
"about",
"its",
"consideration",
"of",
"an",
"Ellesmere",
"Port",
"site",
"for",
"its",
"first",
"major",
"engine",
"plant",
"in",
"Britain",
".",
"One",
"auto-industry",
"union",
"leader",
"said",
",",
"``",
"If",
"they",
"try",
"to",
"build",
"it",
"somewhere",
"else",
"-LCB-",
"in",
"Europe",
"-RCB-",
"besides",
"the",
"U.K.",
",",
"they",
"are",
"going",
"to",
"be",
"in",
"big",
"trouble",
"''",
"with",
"unionists",
"over",
"any",
"Jaguar",
"deal",
"."
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[
"Egon",
"Krenz",
",",
"the",
"man",
"tapped",
"yesterday",
"to",
"become",
"East",
"Germany",
"'s",
"new",
"leader",
",",
"faces",
"the",
"same",
"task",
"that",
"has",
"fallen",
"to",
"neighboring",
"socialist",
"colleagues",
":",
"reforming",
"a",
"country",
"in",
"crisis",
".",
"But",
"unlike",
"the",
"other",
"new",
"leaders",
"in",
"the",
"East",
"Bloc",
",",
"Mr.",
"Krenz",
"will",
"face",
"an",
"immediate",
"threat",
"to",
"his",
"nation",
"'s",
"very",
"existence",
":",
"German",
"reunification",
".",
"Mr.",
"Krenz",
",",
"age",
"52",
",",
"is",
"known",
"as",
"an",
"old-guard",
"ironfist",
",",
"one",
"likely",
"to",
"continue",
"the",
"method",
"of",
"running",
"a",
"country",
"that",
"the",
"Berlin",
"Wall",
"made",
"famous",
".",
"Even",
"if",
"he",
"were",
"to",
"change",
"his",
"stripes",
"and",
"become",
"another",
"Milton",
"Friedman",
",",
"however",
",",
"he",
"would",
"still",
"stand",
"a",
"good",
"chance",
"of",
"losing",
"a",
"country",
".",
"Mr.",
"Krenz",
"almost",
"certainly",
"will",
"be",
"a",
"younger",
"version",
"of",
"Erich",
"Honecker",
",",
"his",
"rigid",
"predecessor",
"as",
"dictator",
".",
"Mr.",
"Krenz",
"has",
"followed",
"much",
"the",
"same",
"career",
"path",
"as",
"Mr.",
"Honecker",
":",
"Both",
"spent",
"years",
"overseeing",
"the",
"Freie",
"Deutsche",
"Jugend",
",",
"the",
"youth",
"group",
"that",
"is",
"the",
"communist",
"regime",
"'s",
"principal",
"tool",
"for",
"stamping",
"young",
"Germans",
"into",
"socialist",
"citizens",
".",
"More",
"recently",
",",
"Mr.",
"Krenz",
"has",
"been",
"in",
"charge",
"of",
"East",
"German",
"security",
",",
"and",
"is",
"the",
"youngest",
"member",
"of",
"the",
"ruling",
"Politburo",
".",
"Faced",
"with",
"another",
"Mr.",
"Honecker",
",",
"so",
"many",
"despairing",
"East",
"Germans",
"are",
"likely",
"to",
"flee",
"that",
"the",
"two",
"German",
"peoples",
"will",
"get",
"their",
"reunification",
",",
"de",
"facto",
",",
"on",
"West",
"German",
"ground",
".",
"But",
"if",
"East",
"Germany",
"'s",
"arthritic",
"Politburo",
"does",
"loosen",
"up",
"enough",
"to",
"permit",
"Mr.",
"Krenz",
"to",
"make",
"serious",
"efforts",
"at",
"reform",
",",
"he",
"will",
"face",
"a",
"challenge",
"just",
"as",
"fundamental",
".",
"Abandoning",
"socialism",
"means",
"abandoning",
"the",
"East",
"German",
"state",
"'s",
"reason",
"for",
"existence",
",",
"and",
"with",
"it",
"the",
"justification",
"for",
"its",
"watchdogs",
"and",
"its",
"Wall",
".",
"In",
"this",
"scenario",
"it",
"'s",
"hard",
"to",
"imagine",
"that",
"a",
"pale",
"imitation",
"of",
"the",
"Federal",
"Republic",
"could",
"avoid",
"being",
"pulled",
"into",
"some",
"kind",
"of",
"tie",
"--",
"economic",
",",
"federal",
"or",
"stronger",
"--",
"with",
"West",
"Germany",
".",
"Mr.",
"Krenz",
"may",
"need",
"a",
"bit",
"of",
"time",
"to",
"consolidate",
"his",
"empire",
",",
"which",
"would",
"do",
"a",
"lot",
"to",
"promote",
"Reunification",
"Scenario",
"One",
".",
"Cartoonists",
"in",
"West",
"Germany",
"have",
"already",
"mocked",
"the",
"exodus",
"by",
"imagining",
"an",
"advertisement",
"placed",
"by",
"Mr.",
"Honecker",
":",
"``",
"Wanted",
":",
"one",
"people",
".",
"''",
"The",
"West",
"German",
"embassies",
"in",
"Prague",
",",
"Budapest",
"and",
"Warsaw",
"are",
"continuing",
"to",
"find",
"refugees",
"at",
"their",
"gates",
".",
"Of",
"course",
"East",
"Germany",
",",
"true",
"to",
"its",
"tradition",
",",
"could",
"tighten",
"its",
"borders",
"yet",
"further",
".",
"Two",
"of",
"the",
"last",
"gestures",
"of",
"the",
"Honecker",
"regime",
"were",
"to",
"close",
"the",
"border",
"to",
"Czechoslovakia",
"and",
"install",
"halogen",
"lights",
"in",
"some",
"spots",
"along",
"the",
"frontier",
".",
"But",
"with",
"world-wide",
"opinion",
"--",
"even",
",",
"apparently",
"in",
"Moscow",
"--",
"against",
"East",
"Germany",
",",
"the",
"country",
"would",
"have",
"to",
"turn",
"itself",
"into",
"an",
"Albania",
"to",
"clamp",
"down",
"further",
"on",
"refugees",
".",
"There",
"have",
"been",
"some",
"reports",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Krenz",
"is",
"moving",
"to",
"``",
"soften",
"''",
"his",
"reputation",
",",
"notably",
"rumors",
"that",
"it",
"was",
"he",
"who",
"kept",
"East",
"Germany",
"'s",
"state",
"police",
"off",
"protesters",
"'",
"backs",
"at",
"the",
"country",
"'s",
"dismal",
"40th",
"anniversary",
"celebrations",
"earlier",
"this",
"month",
".",
"But",
"even",
"if",
"he",
"effects",
"a",
"Hyde-to-Jekyll",
"transformation",
",",
"he",
"will",
"face",
"a",
"serious",
"ideological",
"crisis",
"and",
"Reunification",
"Scenario",
"Two",
".",
"The",
"problem",
"is",
"one",
"that",
"East",
"Germany",
"shares",
"with",
"other",
"half-states",
",",
"such",
"as",
"North",
"Korea",
",",
"but",
"one",
"it",
"must",
"shoulder",
"alone",
"in",
"the",
"East",
"Bloc",
".",
"When",
"Poland",
"moves",
"to",
"reform",
",",
"it",
"can",
"at",
"least",
"lean",
"on",
"its",
"past",
":",
"However",
"flawed",
"and",
"short-lived",
"Joseph",
"Pilsudski",
"'s",
"interwar",
"republic",
",",
"it",
"was",
"a",
"nonsocialist",
"democracy",
".",
"Czech",
"reformers",
"can",
"recall",
"the",
"Wilsonian",
"ideals",
"of",
"the",
"same",
"period",
"in",
"their",
"country",
".",
"Even",
"the",
"Soviet",
"Union",
"has",
"Peter",
"the",
"Great",
"to",
"rediscover",
",",
"should",
"it",
"choose",
"to",
".",
"But",
"East",
"Germany",
"is",
"merely",
"``",
"the",
"land",
"of",
"truly",
"existing",
"socialism",
".",
"''",
"Beyond",
"that",
",",
"it",
"has",
"to",
"compete",
"with",
"West",
"Germany",
"for",
"a",
"claim",
"to",
"the",
"German",
"identity",
".",
"Up",
"to",
"now",
",",
"the",
"main",
"weapon",
"of",
"the",
"``",
"worker",
"and",
"peasant",
"state",
"''",
"has",
"been",
"the",
"ideology",
"of",
"socialism",
".",
"With",
"talk",
"today",
"of",
"a",
"second",
"economic",
"miracle",
"in",
"West",
"Germany",
",",
"East",
"Germany",
"no",
"longer",
"can",
"content",
"itself",
"with",
"being",
"the",
"economic",
"star",
"in",
"a",
"loser",
"league",
".",
"Without",
"Moscow",
"'s",
"military",
"and",
"party",
"behind",
"it",
",",
"East",
"Germany",
"runs",
"the",
"risk",
"of",
"disintegrating",
".",
"If",
"it",
"goes",
"capitalist",
",",
"and",
"increases",
"trade",
"with",
"West",
"Germany",
",",
"it",
"will",
"convert",
"itself",
",",
"willy-nilly",
",",
"into",
"an",
"economic",
"annex",
"of",
"the",
"Federal",
"Republic",
".",
"There",
"'s",
"a",
"certain",
"cruel",
"logic",
"at",
"work",
"here",
":",
"It",
"'s",
"particularly",
"appropriate",
"--",
"and",
"tragic",
"--",
"that",
"the",
"land",
"that",
"produced",
"Karl",
"Marx",
"should",
"prove",
"socialism",
"'s",
"failure",
"in",
"an",
"experiment",
"that",
"uses",
"its",
"own",
"people",
"as",
"controls",
".",
"There",
"may",
"be",
"forces",
"that",
"would",
"delay",
"this",
"scenario",
".",
"Ideologues",
"are",
"the",
"last",
"to",
"surrender",
",",
"and",
"Germans",
"are",
"an",
"ideological",
"people",
".",
"The",
"protesters",
"who",
"greeted",
"Mikhail",
"Gorbachev",
"at",
"East",
"Berlin",
"'s",
"airport",
"earlier",
"this",
"month",
"were",
"n't",
"shouting",
"``",
"Go",
"U.S.A",
"''",
"--",
"they",
"were",
"chanting",
"``",
"Gorby",
",",
"Help",
"Us",
".",
"''",
"Ideologues",
"on",
"the",
"other",
"side",
"of",
"the",
"border",
"can",
"also",
"slow",
"the",
"process",
".",
"Helmut",
"Kohl",
"'s",
"governing",
"conservative",
"coalition",
"is",
"proving",
"admirably",
"true",
"to",
"the",
"West",
"German",
"constitution",
"by",
"making",
"more",
"than",
"500,000",
"people",
"of",
"German",
"descent",
"automatic",
"citizens",
"this",
"year",
"alone",
".",
"But",
"within",
"the",
"government",
"and",
"in",
"the",
"think",
"tanks",
"outside",
"it",
",",
"many",
"West",
"Germans",
"maintain",
"that",
"they",
"do",
"n't",
"want",
"immediate",
"reunification",
".",
"Politically",
",",
"this",
"currently",
"is",
"wisdom",
"--",
"particularly",
"given",
"a",
"nervous",
"neighboring",
"France",
".",
"But",
"it",
"would",
"be",
"ironic",
"if",
"Germany",
"'s",
"reunification",
",",
"just",
"like",
"its",
"division",
",",
"eventually",
"were",
"the",
"result",
"of",
"actions",
"in",
"centers",
"of",
"power",
"other",
"than",
"Bonn",
"and",
"Berlin",
".",
"In",
"a",
"statement",
"that",
"was",
"as",
"close",
"as",
"East",
"Germany",
"gets",
"to",
"practicing",
"``",
"glasnost",
"''",
",",
"Otto",
"Reinhold",
",",
"an",
"East",
"German",
"party",
"theorist",
",",
"actually",
"acknowledged",
"the",
"reunification",
"dilemma",
".",
"``",
"The",
"main",
"problem",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Reinhold",
"said",
"in",
"an",
"East",
"German",
"radio",
"interview",
"monitored",
"by",
"Radio",
"Free",
"Europe",
"in",
"Munich",
",",
"stems",
"from",
"the",
"fact",
"that",
"``",
"the",
"GDR",
"is",
"different",
"''",
"from",
"other",
"East",
"European",
"states",
".",
"``",
"What",
"kind",
"of",
"right",
"to",
"exist",
",",
"''",
"he",
"asked",
",",
"``",
"would",
"a",
"capitalist",
"German",
"Democratic",
"Republic",
"have",
"alongside",
"a",
"capitalist",
"Federal",
"Republic",
"?",
"''",
"That",
"'s",
"a",
"question",
"East",
"Germany",
"ca",
"n't",
"answer",
"easily",
",",
"no",
"matter",
"what",
"its",
"new",
"leader",
"does",
".",
"Miss",
"Shlaes",
"is",
"editorial",
"features",
"editor",
"of",
"The",
"Wall",
"Street",
"Journal/Europe",
"."
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"tomorrow",
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".",
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",",
"a",
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"Anthony",
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",",
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"--",
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"--",
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".",
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",",
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"."
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[
"Federal",
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"Dr.",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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"--",
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",",
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"``",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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[
"Morrison",
"Knudsen",
"Corp.",
"posted",
"third-quarter",
"net",
"income",
"of",
"$",
"7.9",
"million",
",",
"or",
"69",
"cents",
"a",
"share",
",",
"continuing",
"a",
"rebound",
"from",
"steep",
"year-ago",
"losses",
".",
"In",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
"a",
"year-earlier",
",",
"the",
"construction",
"and",
"engineering",
"concern",
"posted",
"a",
"loss",
"of",
"$",
"51.2",
"million",
",",
"or",
"$",
"4.68",
"a",
"share",
".",
"Revenue",
"in",
"the",
"latest",
"quarter",
"rose",
"14",
"%",
"to",
"$",
"589",
"million",
"from",
"$",
"515.1",
"million",
".",
"In",
"composite",
"trading",
"on",
"the",
"New",
"York",
"Stock",
"Exchange",
",",
"Morrison",
"gained",
"$",
"2.25",
"to",
"$",
"44.125",
".",
"Morrison",
"said",
"the",
"engineering",
"and",
"construction",
"segment",
"performed",
"well",
",",
"with",
"the",
"mining",
"and",
"MK-Ferguson",
"operations",
"making",
"important",
"contributions",
".",
"Boise",
",",
"Idaho-based",
"Morrison",
"had",
"losses",
"totaling",
"$",
"186",
"million",
"over",
"the",
"two",
"years",
"ended",
"in",
"December",
",",
"but",
"it",
"has",
"surged",
"back",
"to",
"profitability",
"as",
"a",
"result",
"of",
"cost-cutting",
"and",
"shedding",
"of",
"unprofitable",
"operations",
".",
"In",
"the",
"nine",
"months",
",",
"the",
"company",
"'s",
"net",
"income",
"was",
"$",
"21.5",
"million",
",",
"or",
"$",
"1.88",
"a",
"share",
",",
"compared",
"with",
"a",
"year-earlier",
"loss",
"of",
"$",
"97.8",
"million",
",",
"or",
"$",
"8.96",
"a",
"share",
".",
"Revenue",
"rose",
"17",
"%",
"to",
"$",
"1.62",
"billion",
"from",
"$",
"1.39",
"billion",
"."
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[
"The",
"market",
"for",
"$",
"200",
"billion",
"of",
"high-yield",
"junk",
"bonds",
"regained",
"some",
"of",
"its",
"footing",
"as",
"the",
"Dow",
"Jones",
"Industrial",
"Average",
"rebounded",
"from",
"Friday",
"'s",
"plunge",
".",
"But",
"the",
"junk",
"recovery",
",",
"led",
"by",
"the",
"bellwether",
"RJR",
"Holdings",
"bonds",
",",
"was",
"precarious",
".",
"No",
"trading",
"existed",
"for",
"the",
"vast",
"majority",
"of",
"junk",
"bonds",
",",
"securities",
"industry",
"officials",
"said",
".",
"On",
"Friday",
",",
"trading",
"in",
"practically",
"every",
"issue",
"ground",
"to",
"a",
"halt",
"as",
"potential",
"buyers",
"fled",
"and",
"brokerage",
"firms",
"were",
"unwilling",
"to",
"provide",
"bid",
"and",
"offer",
"prices",
"for",
"most",
"issues",
".",
"``",
"Nothing",
"traded",
"on",
"Friday",
",",
"and",
"people",
"were",
"n't",
"really",
"sure",
"where",
"the",
"market",
"should",
"have",
"opened",
"''",
"yesterday",
",",
"said",
"Raymond",
"Minella",
",",
"co-head",
"of",
"merchant",
"banking",
"at",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"&",
"Co",
".",
"``",
"But",
"we",
"had",
"a",
"fairly",
"active",
"day",
"yesterday",
".",
"''",
"At",
"Drexel",
"Burnham",
"Lambert",
"Inc.",
",",
"the",
"leading",
"underwriter",
"of",
"junk",
"bonds",
",",
"``",
"I",
"was",
"prepared",
"to",
"be",
"in",
"a",
"very",
"bad",
"mood",
"tonight",
",",
"''",
"said",
"David",
"Feinman",
",",
"a",
"junk",
"bond",
"trader",
".",
"``",
"Now",
",",
"I",
"feel",
"maybe",
"there",
"'s",
"a",
"little",
"bit",
"of",
"euphoria",
".",
"''",
"But",
"before",
"the",
"stock",
"market",
"rebounded",
"from",
"a",
"sharp",
"early",
"sell-off",
"yesterday",
",",
"he",
"said",
",",
"``",
"You",
"could",
"n't",
"buy",
"-LCB-",
"junk",
"bonds",
"-RCB-",
"and",
"you",
"could",
"n't",
"give",
"them",
"away",
".",
"''",
"Yesterday",
"'s",
"rally",
"was",
"led",
"by",
"RJR",
"Holdings",
"13",
"3/4",
"%",
"bonds",
",",
"which",
"initially",
"tumbled",
"three",
"points",
",",
"or",
"$",
"30",
"for",
"each",
"$",
"1,000",
"face",
"amount",
",",
"to",
"96",
"1/4",
"before",
"rebounding",
"to",
"99",
"3/4",
".",
"Bonds",
"issued",
"by",
"Kroger",
",",
"Duracell",
",",
"Safeway",
"and",
"American",
"Standard",
"also",
"showed",
"big",
"gains",
",",
"recovering",
"almost",
"all",
"their",
"losses",
"from",
"Friday",
"and",
"early",
"yesterday",
".",
"But",
"traders",
"said",
"the",
"junk",
"bond",
"market",
"increasingly",
"is",
"separating",
"into",
"a",
"top-tier",
"group",
",",
"in",
"which",
"trades",
"can",
"be",
"executed",
"easily",
",",
"and",
"a",
"larger",
"group",
"of",
"lower-quality",
"bonds",
"in",
"which",
"liquidity",
"--",
"or",
"the",
"ability",
"to",
"trade",
"without",
"too",
"much",
"difficulty",
"--",
"has",
"steadily",
"deteriorated",
"this",
"year",
".",
"``",
"Liquidity",
"has",
"n't",
"returned",
"to",
"the",
"vast",
"middle",
"ground",
"of",
"the",
"market",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Minella",
"of",
"Merrill",
".",
"``",
"The",
"deadbeats",
"are",
"still",
"deadbeats",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Feinman",
"of",
"Drexel",
".",
"Analysts",
"are",
"concerned",
"that",
"much",
"of",
"the",
"high-yield",
"market",
"will",
"remain",
"treacherous",
"for",
"investors",
".",
"Paul",
"Asquith",
",",
"associate",
"professor",
"at",
"the",
"Massachusetts",
"Institute",
"of",
"Technology",
"'s",
"Sloan",
"School",
"of",
"Management",
",",
"citing",
"a",
"pattern",
"of",
"junk-bond",
"default",
"rates",
"that",
"are",
"low",
"in",
"the",
"early",
"years",
"after",
"issuance",
"and",
"rise",
"later",
",",
"says",
",",
"``",
"We",
"'re",
"now",
"in",
"a",
"period",
"where",
"we",
"'re",
"starting",
"to",
"see",
"defaults",
"from",
"the",
"big",
"issue",
"years",
"of",
"1984",
"to",
"1986",
".",
"''",
"Mark",
"Bachmann",
",",
"a",
"senior",
"vice",
"president",
"at",
"Standard",
"&",
"Poor",
"'s",
"Corp.",
",",
"confirms",
"that",
"there",
"is",
"``",
"increasing",
"concern",
"about",
"the",
"future",
"liquidity",
"of",
"the",
"junk",
"bond",
"market",
".",
"''",
"``",
"Junk",
"bonds",
"are",
"a",
"highly",
"stratified",
"market",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Lewis",
"Glucksman",
",",
"vice",
"chairman",
"of",
"Smith",
"Barney",
",",
"Harris",
"Upham",
"&",
"Co",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"a",
"whole",
"bunch",
"of",
"stuff",
"that",
"'s",
"money",
"good",
"and",
"a",
"whole",
"bunch",
"of",
"stuff",
"that",
"'s",
"not",
"so",
"good",
".",
"''",
"Analysts",
"at",
"Standard",
"&",
"Poor",
"'s",
"say",
"junk",
"bond",
"offerings",
"by",
"``",
"tightly",
"stretched",
"''",
"issuers",
"seem",
"to",
"be",
"growing",
".",
"Almost",
"$",
"8",
"billion",
"of",
"junk",
"bonds",
"that",
"are",
"considered",
"untradeable",
"include",
"issues",
"from",
"SCI",
"TV",
",",
"Gillette",
"Holdings",
"(",
"not",
"related",
"to",
"Gillette",
"Co.",
")",
",",
"Interco",
",",
"Seaman",
"Furniture",
",",
"Allied",
"Stores",
",",
"Federated",
"Department",
"Stores",
",",
"National",
"Gypsum",
",",
"M.D.C.",
"Holdings",
",",
"Micropolis",
",",
"Leaseway",
"Transportation",
"and",
"Price",
"Communications",
".",
"``",
"You",
"could",
"still",
"have",
"some",
"very",
"bad",
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",",
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",",
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[
"A",
"consortium",
"of",
"private",
"investors",
"operating",
"as",
"LJH",
"Funding",
"Co.",
"said",
"it",
"has",
"made",
"a",
"$",
"409",
"million",
"cash",
"bid",
"for",
"most",
"of",
"L.J.",
"Hooker",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"real-estate",
"and",
"shopping-center",
"holdings",
".",
"The",
"$",
"409",
"million",
"bid",
"includes",
"the",
"assumption",
"of",
"an",
"estimated",
"$",
"300",
"million",
"in",
"secured",
"liabilities",
"on",
"those",
"properties",
",",
"according",
"to",
"those",
"making",
"the",
"bid",
".",
"The",
"group",
"is",
"led",
"by",
"Jay",
"Shidler",
",",
"chief",
"executive",
"officer",
"of",
"Shidler",
"Investment",
"Corp.",
"in",
"Honolulu",
",",
"and",
"A.",
"Boyd",
"Simpson",
",",
"chief",
"executive",
"of",
"the",
"Atlanta-based",
"Simpson",
"Organization",
"Inc",
".",
"Mr.",
"Shidler",
"'s",
"company",
"specializes",
"in",
"commercial",
"real-estate",
"investment",
"and",
"claims",
"to",
"have",
"$",
"1",
"billion",
"in",
"assets",
";",
"Mr.",
"Simpson",
"is",
"a",
"developer",
"and",
"a",
"former",
"senior",
"executive",
"of",
"L.J.",
"Hooker",
".",
"``",
"The",
"assets",
"are",
"good",
",",
"but",
"they",
"require",
"more",
"money",
"and",
"management",
"''",
"than",
"can",
"be",
"provided",
"in",
"L.J.",
"Hooker",
"'s",
"current",
"situation",
",",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Simpson",
"in",
"an",
"interview",
".",
"``",
"Hooker",
"'s",
"philosophy",
"was",
"to",
"build",
"and",
"sell",
".",
"We",
"want",
"to",
"build",
"and",
"hold",
".",
"''",
"L.J.",
"Hooker",
",",
"based",
"in",
"Atlanta",
",",
"is",
"operating",
"with",
"protection",
"from",
"its",
"creditors",
"under",
"Chapter",
"11",
"of",
"the",
"U.S.",
"Bankruptcy",
"Code",
".",
"Its",
"parent",
"company",
",",
"Hooker",
"Corp.",
"of",
"Sydney",
",",
"Australia",
",",
"is",
"currently",
"being",
"managed",
"by",
"a",
"court-appointed",
"provisional",
"liquidator",
".",
"Sanford",
"Sigoloff",
",",
"chief",
"executive",
"of",
"L.J.",
"Hooker",
",",
"said",
"yesterday",
"in",
"a",
"statement",
"that",
"he",
"has",
"not",
"yet",
"seen",
"the",
"bid",
"but",
"that",
"he",
"would",
"review",
"it",
"and",
"bring",
"it",
"to",
"the",
"attention",
"of",
"the",
"creditors",
"committee",
".",
"The",
"$",
"409",
"million",
"bid",
"is",
"estimated",
"by",
"Mr.",
"Simpson",
"as",
"representing",
"75",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"value",
"of",
"all",
"Hooker",
"real-estate",
"holdings",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
".",
"Not",
"included",
"in",
"the",
"bid",
"are",
"Bonwit",
"Teller",
"or",
"B.",
"Altman",
"&",
"Co.",
",",
"L.J.",
"Hooker",
"'s",
"department-store",
"chains",
".",
"The",
"offer",
"covers",
"the",
"massive",
"1.8",
"million-square-foot",
"Forest",
"Fair",
"Mall",
"in",
"Cincinnati",
",",
"the",
"800,000",
"square-foot",
"Richland",
"Fashion",
"Mall",
"in",
"Columbia",
",",
"S.C.",
",",
"and",
"the",
"700,000",
"square-foot",
"Thornton",
"Town",
"Center",
"mall",
"in",
"Thornton",
",",
"Colo",
".",
"The",
"Thornton",
"mall",
"opened",
"Sept.",
"19",
"with",
"a",
"Bigg",
"'s",
"hypermarket",
"as",
"its",
"anchor",
";",
"the",
"Columbia",
"mall",
"is",
"expected",
"to",
"open",
"Nov.",
"15",
".",
"Other",
"Hooker",
"properties",
"included",
"are",
"a",
"20-story",
"office",
"tower",
"in",
"midtown",
"Atlanta",
",",
"expected",
"to",
"be",
"completed",
"next",
"February",
";",
"vacant",
"land",
"sites",
"in",
"Florida",
"and",
"Ohio",
";",
"L.J.",
"Hooker",
"International",
",",
"the",
"commercial",
"real-estate",
"brokerage",
"company",
"that",
"once",
"did",
"business",
"as",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"Commercial",
"Real",
"Estate",
",",
"plus",
"other",
"shopping",
"centers",
".",
"The",
"consortium",
"was",
"put",
"together",
"by",
"Hoare",
"Govett",
",",
"the",
"London-based",
"investment",
"banking",
"company",
"that",
"is",
"a",
"subsidiary",
"of",
"Security",
"Pacific",
"Corp",
".",
"``",
"We",
"do",
"n't",
"anticipate",
"any",
"problems",
"in",
"raising",
"the",
"funding",
"for",
"the",
"bid",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Allan",
"Campbell",
",",
"the",
"head",
"of",
"mergers",
"and",
"acquisitions",
"at",
"Hoare",
"Govett",
",",
"in",
"an",
"interview",
".",
"Hoare",
"Govett",
"is",
"acting",
"as",
"the",
"consortium",
"'s",
"investment",
"bankers",
".",
"According",
"to",
"people",
"familiar",
"with",
"the",
"consortium",
",",
"the",
"bid",
"was",
"code-named",
"Project",
"Klute",
",",
"a",
"reference",
"to",
"the",
"film",
"``",
"Klute",
"''",
"in",
"which",
"a",
"prostitute",
"played",
"by",
"actress",
"Jane",
"Fonda",
"is",
"saved",
"from",
"a",
"psychotic",
"businessman",
"by",
"a",
"police",
"officer",
"named",
"John",
"Klute",
".",
"L.J.",
"Hooker",
"was",
"a",
"small",
"home-building",
"company",
"based",
"in",
"Atlanta",
"in",
"1979",
"when",
"Mr.",
"Simpson",
"was",
"hired",
"to",
"push",
"it",
"into",
"commercial",
"development",
".",
"The",
"company",
"grew",
"modestly",
"until",
"1986",
",",
"when",
"a",
"majority",
"position",
"in",
"Hooker",
"Corp.",
"was",
"acquired",
"by",
"Australian",
"developer",
"George",
"Herscu",
",",
"currently",
"Hooker",
"'s",
"chairman",
".",
"Mr.",
"Herscu",
"proceeded",
"to",
"launch",
"an",
"ambitious",
",",
"but",
"ill-fated",
",",
"$",
"1",
"billion",
"acquisition",
"binge",
"that",
"included",
"Bonwit",
"Teller",
"and",
"B.",
"Altman",
"&",
"Co.",
",",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"majority",
"positions",
"in",
"Merksamer",
"Jewelers",
",",
"a",
"Sacramento",
"chain",
";",
"Sakowitz",
"Inc.",
",",
"the",
"Houston-based",
"retailer",
",",
"and",
"Parisian",
"Inc.",
",",
"the",
"Southeast",
"department-store",
"chain",
".",
"Eventually",
"Mr.",
"Simpson",
"and",
"Mr.",
"Herscu",
"had",
"a",
"falling",
"out",
"over",
"the",
"direction",
"of",
"the",
"company",
",",
"and",
"Mr.",
"Simpson",
"said",
"he",
"resigned",
"in",
"1988",
".",
"Since",
"then",
",",
"Hooker",
"Corp.",
"has",
"sold",
"its",
"interest",
"in",
"the",
"Parisian",
"chain",
"back",
"to",
"Parisian",
"'s",
"management",
"and",
"is",
"currently",
"attempting",
"to",
"sell",
"the",
"B.",
"Altman",
"&",
"Co.",
"chain",
".",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"Robert",
"Sakowitz",
",",
"chief",
"executive",
"of",
"the",
"Sakowitz",
"chain",
",",
"is",
"seeking",
"funds",
"to",
"buy",
"out",
"the",
"Hooker",
"interest",
"in",
"his",
"company",
".",
"The",
"Merksamer",
"chain",
"is",
"currently",
"being",
"offered",
"for",
"sale",
"by",
"First",
"Boston",
"Corp",
".",
"Reached",
"in",
"Honolulu",
",",
"Mr.",
"Shidler",
"said",
"that",
"he",
"believes",
"the",
"various",
"Hooker",
"malls",
"can",
"become",
"profitable",
"with",
"new",
"management",
".",
"``",
"These",
"are",
"n't",
"mature",
"assets",
",",
"but",
"they",
"have",
"the",
"potential",
"to",
"be",
"so",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Shidler",
".",
"``",
"Managed",
"properly",
",",
"and",
"with",
"a",
"long-term",
"outlook",
",",
"these",
"can",
"become",
"investment-grade",
"quality",
"properties",
"."
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"?",
"Technology",
"stocks",
",",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Goldman",
".",
"WATCH",
"FOR",
"EARNINGS",
"DISAPPOINTMENTS",
".",
"A",
"company",
"does",
"n't",
"have",
"to",
"post",
"a",
"loss",
"to",
"be",
"a",
"candidate",
"for",
"sale",
",",
"says",
"Charles",
"I.",
"Clough",
"Jr.",
",",
"chief",
"market",
"strategist",
"at",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"&",
"Co",
".",
"If",
"earnings",
"do",
"n't",
"live",
"up",
"to",
"analysts",
"'",
"expectations",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"that",
"'s",
"enough",
"to",
"dump",
"the",
"stock",
".",
"John",
"Markese",
",",
"director",
"of",
"research",
"for",
"the",
"American",
"Association",
"of",
"Individual",
"Investors",
",",
"raises",
"a",
"cautionary",
"note",
".",
"``",
"Substituting",
"a",
"rule",
"of",
"thumb",
"for",
"your",
"own",
"judgment",
"''",
"can",
"be",
"a",
"mistake",
",",
"he",
"says",
".",
"An",
"earnings",
"disappointment",
"may",
"reflect",
"a",
"situation",
"that",
"'s",
"short-term",
".",
"But",
"Mr.",
"Clough",
"says",
",",
"``",
"The",
"risk",
"is",
"that",
"earnings",
"disappointments",
"will",
"continue",
".",
"''",
"The",
"economy",
"is",
"decelerating",
"after",
"six",
"good",
"years",
",",
"and",
"``",
"right",
"now",
"it",
"'s",
"better",
"to",
"shoot",
"first",
"and",
"ask",
"questions",
"later",
".",
"''",
"Which",
"types",
"of",
"stocks",
"currently",
"have",
"the",
"greatest",
"earnings",
"risks",
"?",
"Computer",
"companies",
";",
"commodity",
"cyclical",
"stocks",
",",
"like",
"autos",
";",
"and",
"retailing",
"stocks",
",",
"he",
"says",
".",
"BEWARE",
"OF",
"HEAVY",
"DEBT",
".",
"The",
"companies",
"apt",
"to",
"run",
"into",
"earnings",
"problems",
"soonest",
"are",
"the",
"ones",
"with",
"heavy",
"debt",
"loads",
",",
"says",
"Larry",
"Biehl",
",",
"partner",
"in",
"the",
"San",
"Mateo",
",",
"Calif.",
",",
"money-management",
"firm",
"of",
"Bailard",
",",
"Biehl",
"&",
"Kaiser",
".",
"Mr.",
"Canelo",
"of",
"Bear",
"Stearns",
"agrees",
":",
"``",
"If",
"we",
"do",
"have",
"an",
"economic",
"slowdown",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
",",
"``",
"companies",
"with",
"high",
"debt",
"ratios",
"will",
"be",
"dumped",
"en",
"masse",
".",
"''",
"The",
"best",
"course",
"for",
"individual",
"investors",
"is",
"to",
"sell",
"these",
"stocks",
"now",
",",
"the",
"two",
"advisers",
"say",
".",
"SELL",
"`",
"WHISPER",
"'",
"STOCKS",
".",
"UAL",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"difficulty",
"in",
"obtaining",
"bank",
"financing",
"for",
"its",
"leveraged",
"buy-out",
"and",
"its",
"resulting",
"price",
"plunge",
"is",
"a",
"tip-off",
"to",
"what",
"'s",
"going",
"to",
"happen",
"to",
"``",
"takeover",
"stocks",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Canelo",
".",
"Takeover",
"activity",
"will",
"slow",
"down",
"as",
"more",
"and",
"more",
"banks",
"tighten",
"their",
"lending",
"requirements",
",",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'ll",
"be",
"fewer",
"and",
"fewer",
"deals",
".",
"''",
"Moreover",
",",
"many",
"financial",
"advisers",
"say",
"individuals",
"should",
"be",
"in",
"the",
"stock",
"market",
"as",
"long-term",
"investors",
",",
"not",
"as",
"traders",
"trying",
"to",
"catch",
"the",
"next",
"hot",
"stock",
".",
"In",
"general",
",",
"they",
"say",
",",
"avoid",
"takeover",
"stocks",
".",
"COMPARE",
"P/E",
"RATIOS",
"WITH",
"PROSPECTS",
".",
"Mr.",
"Canelo",
"suggests",
"that",
"investors",
"compare",
"price/earnings",
"ratios",
"(",
"the",
"price",
"of",
"a",
"share",
"of",
"stock",
"divided",
"by",
"a",
"company",
"'s",
"per-share",
"earnings",
"for",
"a",
"12-month",
"period",
")",
"with",
"projected",
"growth",
"rates",
".",
"``",
"If",
"you",
"think",
"earnings",
"will",
"grow",
"at",
"20",
"%",
"a",
"year",
",",
"it",
"'s",
"all",
"right",
"to",
"pay",
"20",
"times",
"earnings",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"But",
"do",
"n't",
"pay",
"30",
"times",
"earnings",
"for",
"a",
"company",
"that",
"'s",
"expected",
"to",
"grow",
"at",
"15",
"%",
"a",
"year",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Canelo",
"thinks",
"the",
"market",
"will",
"probably",
"go",
"higher",
",",
"but",
"``",
"will",
"be",
"ruthless",
"with",
"stocks",
"if",
"the",
"earnings",
"are",
"n't",
"there",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Markese",
"cautions",
"that",
"investors",
"should",
"n't",
"slavishly",
"follow",
"any",
"specific",
"price/earnings",
"sell",
"trigger",
".",
"``",
"If",
"you",
"say",
"sell",
"anytime",
"a",
"company",
"'s",
"price/earnings",
"ratio",
"exceeds",
"15",
",",
"that",
"knocks",
"out",
"all",
"your",
"growth",
"stocks",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"You",
"eliminate",
"companies",
"with",
"substantial",
"prospects",
"that",
"are",
"moving",
"up",
"in",
"price",
".",
"''",
"EXAMINE",
"WHAT",
"HAS",
"CHANGED",
".",
"Tom",
"Schlesinger",
",",
"market",
"analyst",
"at",
"A.G.",
"Edwards",
"&",
"Sons",
"Inc.",
",",
"says",
"investors",
"should",
"consider",
"selling",
"if",
"there",
"has",
"been",
"a",
"fundamental",
"change",
"in",
"a",
"company",
"since",
"they",
"bought",
"its",
"stock",
".",
"Say",
"you",
"purchased",
"a",
"stock",
"because",
"of",
"a",
"new",
"product",
"that",
"was",
"in",
"the",
"works",
".",
"Now",
",",
"because",
"of",
"various",
"difficulties",
",",
"the",
"product",
"has",
"been",
"scrapped",
".",
"Time",
"to",
"sell",
",",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Schlesinger",
".",
"Similarly",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"suppose",
"you",
"were",
"attracted",
"to",
"a",
"company",
"because",
"of",
"expectations",
"that",
"sales",
"would",
"hit",
"$",
"200",
"million",
"by",
"1990",
".",
"If",
"things",
"have",
"n't",
"worked",
"out",
"that",
"well",
",",
"and",
"sales",
"wo",
"n't",
"hit",
"$",
"200",
"million",
"until",
"1992",
",",
"it",
"'s",
"time",
"to",
"consider",
"selling",
",",
"he",
"says",
"."
] | [
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] | [
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"predictably",
"paint",
"the",
"circulation",
"cut",
"as",
"a",
"show",
"of",
"strength",
"and",
"actually",
"a",
"benefit",
"to",
"advertisers",
".",
"``",
"What",
"we",
"are",
"doing",
"is",
"screening",
"out",
"the",
"readers",
"who",
"are",
"only",
"casually",
"related",
"to",
"the",
"magazine",
"and",
"do",
"n't",
"really",
"read",
"it",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Heinemann",
".",
"``",
"We",
"are",
"trying",
"to",
"create",
"quality",
"and",
"involvement",
".",
"''",
"However",
",",
"Time",
"executives",
"used",
"the",
"same",
"explanation",
"when",
"in",
"October",
"1988",
"the",
"magazine",
"cut",
"its",
"guaranteed",
"circulation",
"from",
"4.6",
"million",
"to",
"4.3",
"million",
".",
"And",
"Time",
"'s",
"paid",
"circulation",
",",
"according",
"to",
"Audit",
"Bureau",
"of",
"Circulations",
",",
"dropped",
"7.3",
"%",
"to",
"4,393,237",
"in",
"the",
"six",
"months",
"ended",
"June",
"30",
",",
"1989",
".",
"Still",
",",
"Time",
"'s",
"move",
"is",
"being",
"received",
"well",
",",
"once",
"again",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"terrific",
"for",
"advertisers",
"to",
"know",
"the",
"reader",
"will",
"be",
"paying",
"more",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Michael",
"Drexler",
",",
"national",
"media",
"director",
"at",
"Bozell",
"Inc.",
"ad",
"agency",
".",
"``",
"A",
"few",
"drops",
"in",
"circulation",
"are",
"of",
"no",
"consequence",
".",
"It",
"'s",
"not",
"a",
"show",
"of",
"weakness",
";",
"they",
"are",
"improving",
"the",
"quality",
"of",
"circulation",
"while",
"insuring",
"their",
"profits",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Heinemann",
"said",
"the",
"changes",
"represent",
"a",
"new",
"focus",
"in",
"the",
"magazine",
"industry",
":",
"a",
"magazine",
"'s",
"net",
"revenue",
"per",
"subscriber",
",",
"or",
"the",
"actual",
"revenue",
"from",
"subscribers",
"after",
"discounts",
"and",
"the",
"cost",
"of",
"premiums",
"have",
"been",
"stripped",
"away",
".",
"``",
"The",
"question",
"is",
"how",
"much",
"are",
"we",
"getting",
"from",
"each",
"reader",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Heinemann",
".",
"Time",
"'s",
"rivals",
"news-weeklies",
",",
"Washington",
"Post",
"Co.",
"'s",
"Newsweek",
"and",
"U.S.",
"News",
"&",
"World",
"Report",
",",
"are",
"less",
"reliant",
"on",
"electronic",
"giveaways",
",",
"and",
"in",
"recent",
"years",
"both",
"have",
"been",
"increasing",
"their",
"circulation",
"rate",
"bases",
".",
"Both",
"magazines",
"are",
"expected",
"to",
"announce",
"their",
"ad",
"rates",
"and",
"circulation",
"levels",
"for",
"1990",
"within",
"a",
"month",
"."
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[
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",",
"Murata",
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"."
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"Greg",
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"Nov.",
"15",
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"record",
"Oct.",
"31",
".",
"In",
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"Stock",
"Exchange",
"composite",
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"Friday",
",",
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"was",
"unchanged",
"at",
"$",
"4.6875",
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"."
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[
"Legal",
"controversies",
"in",
"America",
"have",
"a",
"way",
"of",
"assuming",
"a",
"symbolic",
"significance",
"far",
"exceeding",
"what",
"is",
"involved",
"in",
"the",
"particular",
"case",
".",
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"state",
"of",
"our",
"society",
"at",
"a",
"given",
"moment",
".",
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"has",
"always",
"been",
"so",
".",
"In",
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"1920s",
",",
"a",
"young",
"schoolteacher",
",",
"John",
"T.",
"Scopes",
",",
"volunteered",
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"be",
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"pig",
"in",
"a",
"test",
"case",
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"the",
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"Civil",
"Liberties",
"Union",
"to",
"challenge",
"a",
"ban",
"on",
"the",
"teaching",
"of",
"evolution",
"imposed",
"by",
"the",
"Tennessee",
"Legislature",
".",
"The",
"result",
"was",
"a",
"world-famous",
"trial",
"exposing",
"profound",
"cultural",
"conflicts",
"in",
"American",
"life",
"between",
"the",
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"smart",
"set",
",",
"''",
"whose",
"spokesman",
"was",
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",",
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"the",
"religious",
"fundamentalists",
",",
"whom",
"Mencken",
"derided",
"as",
"benighted",
"primitives",
".",
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"now",
"recall",
"the",
"actual",
"outcome",
":",
"Scopes",
"was",
"convicted",
"and",
"fined",
"$",
"100",
",",
"and",
"his",
"conviction",
"was",
"reversed",
"on",
"appeal",
"because",
"the",
"fine",
"was",
"excessive",
"under",
"Tennessee",
"law",
".",
"So",
"it",
"was",
"with",
"the",
"Hiss",
"case",
"a",
"generation",
"later",
",",
"when",
"Alger",
"Hiss",
"became",
"a",
"lightning",
"rod",
"for",
"the",
"anxieties",
"of",
"the",
"Cold",
"War",
"and",
"conflicting",
"attitudes",
"toward",
"the",
"New",
"Deal",
"he",
"had",
"served",
".",
"His",
"trials",
"aroused",
"public",
"passions",
"out",
"of",
"all",
"proportion",
"to",
"the",
"rather",
"banal",
"secrets",
"he",
"allegedly",
"had",
"passed",
"to",
"Soviet",
"intelligence",
".",
"And",
"so",
"it",
"seems",
"to",
"be",
"with",
"the",
"case",
"of",
"Elizabeth",
"Morgan",
",",
"the",
"Washington",
",",
"D.C.",
",",
"plastic",
"surgeon",
"jailed",
"in",
"a",
"child",
"custody",
"case",
"for",
"refusing",
"to",
"reveal",
"the",
"whereabouts",
"of",
"her",
"daughter",
".",
"Dr.",
"Morgan",
"has",
"just",
"emerged",
"from",
"the",
"D.C.",
"jail",
"after",
"more",
"than",
"two",
"years",
"'",
"confinement",
"for",
"contempt",
"of",
"court",
",",
"a",
"heroine",
"to",
"her",
"many",
"supporters",
".",
"To",
"the",
"rest",
"of",
"us",
",",
"the",
"case",
"is",
"a",
"puzzle",
".",
"It",
"is",
"what",
"lawyers",
"call",
"``",
"fact",
"intensive",
".",
"''",
"It",
"presents",
"no",
"great",
"issue",
"of",
"legal",
"principle",
",",
"no",
"overriding",
"question",
"of",
"family",
"law",
"or",
"the",
"law",
"of",
"contempt",
".",
"Instead",
",",
"it",
"turns",
"on",
"the",
"disputed",
"and",
"elusive",
"facts",
"of",
"``",
"who",
"did",
"what",
"to",
"whom",
".",
"''",
"It",
"is",
"difficult",
",",
"if",
"not",
"impossible",
",",
"for",
"anyone",
"who",
"has",
"not",
"pored",
"over",
"the",
"thousands",
"of",
"pages",
"of",
"court",
"pleadings",
"and",
"transcripts",
"to",
"have",
"a",
"worthwhile",
"opinion",
"on",
"the",
"underlying",
"merits",
"of",
"the",
"controversy",
".",
"Certainly",
"I",
"do",
"not",
".",
"So",
"we",
"must",
"look",
"elsewhere",
"for",
"an",
"explanation",
"of",
"the",
"unusual",
"power",
"this",
"case",
"has",
"exerted",
"over",
"the",
"minds",
"of",
"many",
",",
"not",
"just",
"in",
"Washington",
"but",
"elsewhere",
"in",
"the",
"country",
"and",
"even",
"the",
"world",
".",
"I",
"suggest",
"that",
"three",
"themes",
"have",
"come",
"together",
"in",
"the",
"strange",
"case",
"of",
"Dr.",
"Morgan",
".",
"The",
"first",
"is",
"that",
"it",
"represents",
"an",
"intense",
"battle",
"in",
"what",
"James",
"Thurber",
"used",
"to",
"caricature",
"as",
"``",
"the",
"war",
"between",
"the",
"sexes",
".",
"''",
"But",
"although",
"Thurber",
"did",
"so",
"gently",
"and",
"lightheartedly",
",",
"many",
"of",
"Dr.",
"Morgan",
"'s",
"supporters",
"have",
"taken",
"Thurber",
"'s",
"memorable",
"title",
"``",
"The",
"Male",
"Animal",
"''",
"quite",
"literally",
".",
"The",
"vehemence",
"of",
"the",
"emotions",
"aroused",
"by",
"the",
"case",
"testifies",
"to",
"its",
"symbolic",
"importance",
"in",
"the",
"war",
"that",
"Thurber",
"accepted",
"as",
"an",
"eternal",
"part",
"of",
"the",
"human",
"condition",
".",
"A",
"second",
"theme",
"is",
"the",
"undercurrent",
"of",
"social",
"class",
"and",
"race",
"in",
"the",
"public",
"reaction",
"to",
"the",
"Morgan",
"case",
".",
"Dr.",
"Morgan",
"is",
"a",
"highly",
"educated",
"white",
"professional",
"who",
"attended",
"some",
"of",
"the",
"``",
"best",
"''",
"schools",
".",
"As",
"members",
"of",
"the",
"Black",
"Caucus",
"in",
"Congress",
"asked",
"during",
"the",
"debate",
"on",
"the",
"legislation",
"that",
"freed",
"Dr.",
"Morgan",
",",
"does",
"anyone",
"seriously",
"believe",
"that",
"if",
"she",
"were",
"an",
"uneducated",
",",
"black",
",",
"working-class",
"woman",
",",
"Congress",
"would",
"have",
"rushed",
"to",
"pass",
"a",
"private",
"relief",
"bill",
"freeing",
"her",
"?",
"Or",
"that",
"the",
"president",
"would",
"have",
"hurried",
"to",
"sign",
"the",
"bill",
"``",
"out",
"of",
"compassion",
"for",
"her",
"plight",
"''",
"?",
"To",
"ask",
"those",
"questions",
"is",
"to",
"answer",
"them",
".",
"Finally",
",",
"the",
"case",
"of",
"Dr.",
"Morgan",
"gave",
"Congress",
"an",
"opportunity",
"to",
"act",
"with",
"unaccustomed",
"decisiveness",
"and",
"to",
"engage",
"in",
"one",
"of",
"its",
"favorite",
"pastimes",
"--",
"bashing",
"the",
"District",
"of",
"Columbia",
"government",
".",
"The",
"local",
"government",
"is",
"discredited",
"in",
"the",
"eyes",
"of",
"many",
"residents",
"for",
"a",
"variety",
"of",
"reasons",
",",
"and",
"congressmen",
"read",
"the",
"same",
"newspapers",
"and",
"watch",
"the",
"same",
"TV",
"newscasts",
"as",
"other",
"people",
"in",
"the",
"area",
"do",
".",
"Bashing",
"the",
"D.C.",
"government",
"is",
"risk-free",
"for",
"members",
"of",
"Congress",
",",
"who",
"do",
"not",
"have",
"to",
"answer",
"to",
"their",
"own",
"constituents",
"for",
"it",
".",
"Congress",
"is",
"paralyzed",
"from",
"acting",
"on",
"such",
"great",
"issues",
"of",
"the",
"day",
"as",
"the",
"federal",
"budget",
"deficit",
".",
"Yet",
"a",
"bill",
"tailored",
"to",
"the",
"interests",
"of",
"a",
"single",
"individual",
"passed",
"Congress",
"with",
"almost",
"unimaginable",
"speed",
",",
"before",
"the",
"judicial",
"process",
"had",
"run",
"its",
"course",
",",
"and",
",",
"indeed",
",",
"while",
"the",
"Morgan",
"case",
"was",
"awaiting",
"a",
"ruling",
"by",
"the",
"appellate",
"court",
".",
"The",
"Morgan",
"case",
"thus",
"tells",
"us",
"much",
"more",
"about",
"the",
"current",
"state",
"of",
"sex",
",",
"class",
",",
"race",
"and",
"politics",
"in",
"our",
"society",
"than",
"it",
"does",
"about",
"the",
"facts",
"of",
"Dr.",
"Morgan",
"'s",
"particular",
"situation",
".",
"It",
"may",
"stand",
"as",
"a",
"metaphor",
"for",
"how",
"wide",
"and",
"deep",
"the",
"divisions",
"in",
"that",
"society",
"continue",
"to",
"be",
"however",
"we",
"try",
"to",
"deny",
"their",
"existence",
".",
"Mr.",
"Rezneck",
"is",
"a",
"lawyer",
"in",
"Washington",
",",
"D.C",
"."
] | [
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[
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"may",
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".",
"Norwood",
",",
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",",
"a",
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",",
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"substantial",
"losses",
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"the",
"past",
"two",
"quarters",
".",
"Its",
"stock",
",",
"which",
"was",
"as",
"high",
"as",
"$",
"18.75",
"a",
"share",
",",
"has",
"been",
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"under",
"$",
"4",
"a",
"share",
"recently",
".",
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"it",
"closed",
"at",
"$",
"4.375",
"a",
"share",
",",
"up",
"$",
"1.125",
",",
"in",
"national",
"over-the-counter",
"trading",
".",
"In",
"a",
"Securities",
"and",
"Exchange",
"Commission",
"filing",
",",
"Norwood",
"said",
"it",
"'s",
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"``",
"no",
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",",
"''",
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"comment",
".",
"Norwood",
"is",
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"L.",
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"and",
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"both",
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",",
"a",
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"money",
"management",
"firm",
".",
"Also",
"involved",
"in",
"the",
"group",
"is",
"Robert",
"F.",
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",",
"formerly",
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"'s",
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"vice",
"president",
",",
"field",
"operations",
",",
"who",
"left",
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"at",
"the",
"beginning",
"of",
"October",
".",
"Mr.",
"Angelo",
"was",
"described",
"in",
"the",
"filing",
"as",
"a",
"consultant",
"to",
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"."
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[
"The",
"Department",
"of",
"Health",
"and",
"Human",
"Services",
"plans",
"to",
"extend",
"its",
"moratorium",
"on",
"federal",
"funding",
"of",
"research",
"involving",
"fetal-tissue",
"transplants",
".",
"Medical",
"researchers",
"believe",
"the",
"transplantation",
"of",
"small",
"amounts",
"of",
"fetal",
"tissue",
"into",
"humans",
"could",
"help",
"treat",
"juvenile",
"diabetes",
"and",
"such",
"degenerative",
"diseases",
"as",
"Alzheimer",
"'s",
",",
"Parkinson",
"'s",
"and",
"Huntington",
"'s",
".",
"But",
"anti-abortionists",
"oppose",
"such",
"research",
"because",
"they",
"worry",
"that",
"the",
"development",
"of",
"therapies",
"using",
"fetal-tissue",
"transplants",
"could",
"lead",
"to",
"an",
"increase",
"in",
"abortions",
".",
"James",
"Mason",
",",
"assistant",
"secretary",
"for",
"health",
",",
"said",
"the",
"ban",
"on",
"federal",
"funding",
"of",
"fetal-tissue",
"transplant",
"research",
"``",
"should",
"be",
"continued",
"indefinitely",
".",
"''",
"He",
"said",
"the",
"ban",
"wo",
"n't",
"stop",
"privately",
"funded",
"tissue-transplant",
"research",
"or",
"federally",
"funded",
"fetal-tissue",
"research",
"that",
"does",
"n't",
"involve",
"transplants",
".",
"Department",
"officials",
"say",
"that",
"HHS",
"Secretary",
"Louis",
"Sullivan",
"will",
"support",
"Dr.",
"Mason",
"'s",
"ruling",
",",
"which",
"will",
"be",
"issued",
"soon",
"in",
"the",
"form",
"of",
"a",
"letter",
"to",
"the",
"acting",
"director",
"of",
"the",
"National",
"Institutes",
"of",
"Health",
".",
"Both",
"Dr.",
"Mason",
"and",
"Dr.",
"Sullivan",
"oppose",
"federal",
"funding",
"for",
"abortion",
",",
"as",
"does",
"President",
"Bush",
",",
"except",
"in",
"cases",
"where",
"a",
"woman",
"'s",
"life",
"is",
"threatened",
".",
"The",
"controversy",
"began",
"in",
"1987",
"when",
"the",
"National",
"Institutes",
"of",
"Health",
",",
"aware",
"of",
"the",
"policy",
"implications",
"of",
"its",
"research",
",",
"asked",
"for",
"an",
"HHS",
"review",
"of",
"its",
"plan",
"to",
"implant",
"fetal",
"tissue",
"into",
"the",
"brain",
"of",
"a",
"patient",
"suffering",
"from",
"Parkinson",
"'s",
"disease",
".",
"The",
"department",
"placed",
"a",
"moratorium",
"on",
"the",
"research",
",",
"pending",
"a",
"review",
"of",
"scientific",
",",
"legal",
"and",
"ethical",
"issues",
".",
"A",
"majority",
"of",
"an",
"NIH-appointed",
"panel",
"recommended",
"late",
"last",
"year",
"that",
"the",
"research",
"continue",
"under",
"carefully",
"controlled",
"conditions",
",",
"but",
"the",
"issue",
"became",
"embroiled",
"in",
"politics",
"as",
"anti-abortion",
"groups",
"continued",
"to",
"oppose",
"federal",
"funding",
".",
"The",
"dispute",
"has",
"hampered",
"the",
"administration",
"'s",
"efforts",
"to",
"recruit",
"prominent",
"doctors",
"to",
"fill",
"prestigious",
"posts",
"at",
"the",
"helm",
"of",
"the",
"NIH",
"and",
"the",
"Centers",
"for",
"Disease",
"Control",
".",
"Several",
"candidates",
"have",
"withdrawn",
"their",
"names",
"from",
"consideration",
"after",
"administration",
"officials",
"asked",
"them",
"for",
"their",
"views",
"on",
"abortion",
"and",
"fetal-tissue",
"transplants",
".",
"Antonio",
"Novello",
",",
"whom",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"nominated",
"to",
"serve",
"as",
"surgeon",
"general",
",",
"reportedly",
"has",
"assured",
"the",
"administration",
"that",
"she",
"opposes",
"abortion",
".",
"Dr.",
"Novello",
"is",
"deputy",
"director",
"of",
"the",
"National",
"Institute",
"of",
"Child",
"Health",
"and",
"Human",
"Development",
".",
"Some",
"researchers",
"have",
"charged",
"that",
"the",
"administration",
"is",
"imposing",
"new",
"ideological",
"tests",
"for",
"top",
"scientific",
"posts",
".",
"Earlier",
"this",
"week",
",",
"Dr.",
"Sullivan",
"tried",
"to",
"defuse",
"these",
"charges",
"by",
"stressing",
"that",
"candidates",
"to",
"head",
"the",
"NIH",
"and",
"the",
"CDC",
"will",
"be",
"judged",
"by",
"``",
"standards",
"of",
"scientific",
"and",
"administrative",
"excellence",
",",
"''",
"not",
"politics",
".",
"But",
"the",
"administration",
"'s",
"handling",
"of",
"the",
"fetal-tissue",
"transplant",
"issue",
"disturbs",
"many",
"scientists",
".",
"``",
"When",
"scientific",
"progress",
"moves",
"into",
"uncharted",
"ground",
",",
"there",
"has",
"to",
"be",
"a",
"role",
"for",
"society",
"to",
"make",
"judgments",
"about",
"its",
"applications",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Myron",
"Genel",
",",
"associate",
"dean",
"of",
"the",
"Yale",
"Medical",
"School",
".",
"``",
"The",
"disturbing",
"thing",
"about",
"this",
"abortion",
"issue",
"is",
"that",
"the",
"debate",
"has",
"become",
"polarized",
",",
"so",
"that",
"no",
"mechanism",
"exists",
"''",
"for",
"finding",
"a",
"middle",
"ground",
".",
"Yale",
"is",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"few",
"medical",
"institutions",
"conducting",
"privately",
"funded",
"research",
"on",
"fetal-tissue",
"transplants",
".",
"But",
"Dr.",
"Genel",
"warns",
"that",
"Dr.",
"Mason",
"'s",
"ruling",
"may",
"discourage",
"private",
"funding",
".",
"``",
"The",
"unavailability",
"of",
"federal",
"funds",
",",
"and",
"the",
"climate",
"in",
"which",
"the",
"decision",
"was",
"made",
",",
"certainly",
"do",
"n't",
"provide",
"any",
"incentive",
"for",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"more",
"visible",
"foundations",
"to",
"provide",
"support",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
".",
"Despite",
"the",
"flap",
"over",
"transplants",
",",
"federal",
"funding",
"of",
"research",
"involving",
"fetal",
"tissues",
"will",
"continue",
"on",
"a",
"number",
"of",
"fronts",
".",
"``",
"Such",
"research",
"may",
"ultimately",
"result",
"in",
"the",
"ability",
"to",
"regenerate",
"damaged",
"tissues",
"or",
"to",
"turn",
"off",
"genes",
"that",
"cause",
"cancer",
"''",
"or",
"to",
"regulate",
"genes",
"that",
"cause",
"Down",
"'s",
"syndrome",
",",
"the",
"leading",
"cause",
"of",
"mental",
"retardation",
",",
"according",
"to",
"an",
"NIH",
"summary",
".",
"The",
"NIH",
"currently",
"spends",
"about",
"$",
"8",
"million",
"annually",
"on",
"fetal-tissue",
"research",
"out",
"of",
"a",
"total",
"research",
"budget",
"of",
"$",
"8",
"billion",
"."
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[
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[
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",",
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"trading",
"yesterday",
"."
] | [
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[
"ALAMCO",
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".",
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"a",
"shareholder",
"meeting",
"in",
"December",
",",
"the",
"number",
"of",
"shares",
"outstanding",
"would",
"decrease",
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"five",
"million",
"from",
"50",
"million",
",",
"and",
"par",
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"would",
"rise",
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"from",
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[
"Food",
"and",
"Drug",
"Administration",
"spokesman",
"Jeff",
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"has",
"turned",
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"evidence",
"in",
"a",
"criminal",
"investigation",
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"Pharmaceuticals",
"Inc.",
"to",
"the",
"U.S.",
"Attorney",
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"Baltimore",
".",
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"nor",
"any",
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"Gardens",
",",
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",",
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"own",
"in",
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".",
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"also",
"said",
"the",
"FDA",
"has",
"asked",
"Bolar",
"Pharmaceutical",
"Co.",
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"at",
"the",
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"level",
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"urinary",
"tract",
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".",
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"with",
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"request",
",",
"the",
"spokesman",
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".",
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",",
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"a",
"criminal",
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"and",
"the",
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"'s",
"office",
"of",
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"and",
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"Department",
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"only",
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",",
"''",
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"indicating",
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".",
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"that",
"it",
"switched",
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"brand-name",
"product",
"for",
"its",
"own",
"in",
"such",
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"."
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[
"The",
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"Committee",
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"an",
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"$",
"2.85",
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".",
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",",
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"the",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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"(",
"D.",
",",
"Miss",
".",
")",
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".",
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"going",
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",",
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"said",
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"Fazio",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"Calif.",
")",
",",
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"later",
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"play",
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"the",
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"hostile",
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"the",
"long",
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".",
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",",
"''",
"Mr.",
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",",
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"there",
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"a",
"certain",
"amount",
"of",
"jealousy",
".",
"''",
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"2.85",
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"incorporates",
"$",
"500",
"million",
"for",
"small-business",
"loans",
",",
"$",
"1",
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"in",
"highway",
"construction",
"funds",
",",
"and",
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"1.35",
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"general",
"emergency",
"assistance",
"and",
"a",
"reserve",
"to",
"be",
"available",
"to",
"President",
"Bush",
"to",
"meet",
"unanticipated",
"costs",
"from",
"the",
"two",
"disasters",
".",
"The",
"funding",
"is",
"attached",
"to",
"a",
"stopgap",
"bill",
"to",
"keep",
"most",
"of",
"the",
"government",
"operating",
"through",
"Nov.",
"15",
".",
"The",
"measure",
"is",
"expected",
"to",
"come",
"before",
"the",
"House",
"today",
",",
"and",
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"is",
"under",
"pressure",
"to",
"complete",
"action",
"before",
"midnight",
"EDT",
"tomorrow",
",",
"when",
"the",
"current",
"continuing",
"resolution",
"expires",
".",
"Given",
"California",
"'s",
"size",
"and",
"political",
"importance",
",",
"the",
"White",
"House",
"is",
"eager",
"to",
"appear",
"generous",
".",
"But",
"in",
"private",
"meetings",
"yesterday",
",",
"Budget",
"Director",
"Richard",
"Darman",
"argued",
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"only",
"$",
"1.5",
"billion",
"in",
"new",
"federal",
"appropriations",
"are",
"needed",
"to",
"supplement",
"existing",
"resources",
".",
"A",
"White",
"House",
"budget",
"office",
"analysis",
"estimates",
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"$",
"500",
"million",
"--",
"or",
"half",
"the",
"level",
"in",
"the",
"committee",
"bill",
"--",
"is",
"needed",
"for",
"highway",
"assistance",
"to",
"meet",
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",",
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"administration",
"rejects",
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"notion",
"that",
"new",
"appropriations",
"are",
"needed",
"to",
"finance",
"disaster",
"loans",
"by",
"the",
"Small",
"Business",
"Administration",
".",
"``",
"Everybody",
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"it",
"is",
"a",
"national",
"disaster",
"and",
"that",
"we",
"'ve",
"got",
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"address",
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",",
"''",
"said",
"Mr.",
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",",
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[
"Ford",
"Motor",
"Co.",
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"it",
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"of",
"its",
"Asian",
"operations",
"under",
"a",
"new",
"organization",
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"subsidiaries",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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"of",
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",",
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",",
"and",
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"'s",
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",",
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".",
"Mr.",
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",",
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"America",
"Automotive",
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"1988",
",",
"was",
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"vice",
"president",
"of",
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"."
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[
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"plant-closing",
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"'s",
"fair",
",",
"Why",
"should",
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"not",
"then",
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"that",
"all",
"employees",
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"Similar",
"notice",
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"they",
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"?",
"--",
"Rollin",
"S.",
"Trexler",
".",
"Candid",
"Comment",
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"research",
"projects",
"are",
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"to",
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",",
"are",
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"grants",
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"''",
"?",
"--",
"C.E.",
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"."
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[
"Lyphomed",
"Inc.",
",",
"Rosemont",
",",
"Ill.",
",",
"and",
"Medco",
"Research",
"Inc.",
",",
"Los",
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",",
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"granted",
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"200",
"beats",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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"Lyphomed",
".",
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"Lyphomed",
"for",
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"U.S.",
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"."
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[
"High-definition",
"television",
"promises",
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"the",
"TV",
"of",
"tomorrow",
",",
"so",
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"all",
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",",
"not",
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",",
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"the",
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",",
"these",
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"are",
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",",
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".",
"Photonics",
"Technology",
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",",
"Ohio",
",",
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"plasma",
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"to",
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"movie-quality",
"images",
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"a",
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"only",
"a",
"few",
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"thick",
".",
"Planar",
"Systems",
"Inc.",
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",",
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",",
"the",
"largest",
"of",
"these",
"firms",
",",
"with",
"$",
"20",
"million",
"in",
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"revenue",
",",
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".",
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"already",
"has",
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"success",
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"electroluminescence",
",",
"another",
"promising",
"technology",
"adaptable",
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"television",
".",
"Two",
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"firms",
",",
"Ovonic",
"Imaging",
"Systems",
"Inc.",
"of",
"Troy",
",",
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",",
"and",
"Magnascreen",
"Corp.",
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"are",
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"a",
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"of",
"the",
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"screens",
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"active-matrix",
"liquid",
"crystal",
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".",
"The",
"new",
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"are",
"intended",
"to",
"retire",
"the",
"cathode-ray",
"tube",
",",
"which",
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"for",
"most",
"of",
"the",
"bulk",
"of",
"the",
"conventional",
"TV",
"set",
".",
"Replacing",
"the",
"cathode-ray",
"tube",
"with",
"a",
"large",
",",
"thin",
"screen",
"is",
"the",
"key",
"to",
"the",
"creation",
"of",
"a",
"high-definition",
"television",
",",
"or",
"HDTV",
",",
"which",
"is",
"expected",
"to",
"become",
"a",
"$",
"30",
"billion",
"business",
"world-wide",
"within",
"a",
"decade",
".",
"Large",
"U.S.",
"companies",
"are",
"interested",
"in",
"other",
"segments",
"of",
"the",
"HDTV",
"business",
",",
"such",
"as",
"signal-processing",
"and",
"broadcast",
"equipment",
".",
"But",
"except",
"for",
"Zenith",
"Electronics",
"Corp.",
"and",
"International",
"Business",
"Machines",
"Corp.",
",",
"which",
"is",
"collaborating",
"with",
"Toshiba",
"on",
"computer",
"displays",
",",
"they",
"are",
"poorly",
"positioned",
"to",
"exploit",
"advances",
"in",
"large",
"panels",
".",
"General",
"Electric",
"Co.",
"recently",
"sold",
"off",
"its",
"interests",
"in",
"liquid-crystal",
"displays",
"to",
"Thompson-CSF",
"of",
"France",
".",
"``",
"We",
"found",
"the",
"market",
"not",
"developing",
"as",
"we",
"thought",
"it",
"would",
",",
"''",
"a",
"GE",
"spokesman",
"says",
".",
"The",
"small",
"U.S.",
"firms",
"are",
"persisting",
"because",
"of",
"their",
"strong",
"positions",
"in",
"patents",
",",
"and",
"because",
"the",
"prize",
"is",
"still",
"there",
"to",
"be",
"seized",
".",
"``",
"No",
"one",
"yet",
"has",
"shown",
"the",
"ability",
"to",
"manufacture",
"these",
"panels",
"''",
"at",
"commercial",
"costs",
",",
"says",
"Zvi",
"Yaniv",
",",
"the",
"president",
"of",
"Ovonic",
"Imaging",
".",
"He",
"says",
"he",
"thinks",
"his",
"company",
"is",
"just",
"a",
"few",
"years",
"from",
"doing",
"that",
".",
"The",
"Bush",
"administration",
",",
"hearing",
"conflicting",
"advice",
"about",
"what",
"its",
"role",
"in",
"HDTV",
"should",
"be",
",",
"is",
"n't",
"doing",
"much",
"for",
"now",
".",
"The",
"only",
"material",
"support",
"it",
"is",
"extending",
"to",
"the",
"struggling",
"U.S.",
"industry",
"is",
"$",
"30",
"million",
"in",
"awards",
"from",
"the",
"Pentagon",
"'s",
"Defense",
"Advanced",
"Research",
"Projects",
"Agency",
".",
"The",
"DARPA",
"funds",
"are",
"a",
"pittance",
"compared",
"with",
"what",
"Japan",
"and",
"other",
"prospective",
"competitors",
"are",
"spending",
".",
"The",
"Commerce",
"Department",
"estimates",
"that",
"Japanese",
"government",
"and",
"industry",
"spending",
"on",
"HDTV",
"research",
"is",
"already",
"over",
"$",
"1",
"billion",
".",
"``",
"Unless",
"it",
"gets",
"more",
"help",
",",
"the",
"U.S.",
"industry",
"wo",
"n't",
"have",
"a",
"chance",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Peter",
"Friedman",
",",
"Photonics",
"'s",
"executive",
"vice",
"president",
".",
"Thus",
"far",
",",
"almost",
"all",
"of",
"the",
"basic",
"technology",
"relating",
"to",
"high-definition",
"television",
"has",
"come",
"from",
"U.S.",
"laboratories",
".",
"But",
"Peter",
"Brody",
",",
"Magnascreen",
"'s",
"president",
",",
"says",
"Japanese",
"companies",
"are",
"poised",
"to",
"snatch",
"the",
"technology",
"and",
"put",
"it",
"to",
"commercial",
"use",
",",
"just",
"as",
"they",
"did",
"with",
"earlier",
"U.S.",
"innovations",
"in",
"color",
"television",
"and",
"video",
"recording",
".",
"In",
"the",
"1970s",
",",
"Mr.",
"Brody",
"helped",
"develop",
"the",
"first",
"display",
"panels",
"based",
"on",
"active-matrix",
"liquid",
"crystals",
"at",
"Westinghouse",
"Electric",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"research",
"labs",
"in",
"Pittsburgh",
".",
"The",
"panels",
"are",
"like",
"oversized",
"semiconductors",
"surfaced",
"with",
"a",
"million",
"or",
"more",
"picture",
"elements",
",",
"each",
"contributing",
"to",
"the",
"color",
"and",
"tone",
"of",
"a",
"TV",
"image",
".",
"In",
"1979",
",",
"however",
",",
"Westinghouse",
"abandoned",
"the",
"project",
"along",
"with",
"its",
"stake",
"in",
"advanced",
"television",
".",
"Mr.",
"Brody",
"left",
"the",
"company",
"to",
"find",
"other",
"backers",
".",
"He",
"has",
"a",
"claim",
"to",
"the",
"right",
"to",
"commercialize",
"the",
"Westinghouse",
"patents",
",",
"but",
"he",
"contends",
"that",
"those",
"patents",
"are",
"being",
"infringed",
"by",
"a",
"number",
"of",
"Japanese",
"producers",
".",
"``",
"Most",
"American",
"investors",
"have",
"just",
"given",
"up",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Brody",
"says",
".",
"``",
"They",
"are",
"n't",
"prepared",
"to",
"compete",
"in",
"an",
"area",
"where",
"the",
"Japanese",
"want",
"to",
"enter",
".",
"''",
"Many",
"critics",
"question",
"the",
"industry",
"'s",
"need",
"for",
"federal",
"support",
";",
"the",
"Pentagon",
"justifies",
"its",
"help",
"on",
"national-security",
"grounds",
".",
"``",
"We",
"do",
"n't",
"see",
"a",
"domestic",
"source",
"for",
"some",
"of",
"our",
"-LCB-",
"HDTV",
"-RCB-",
"requirements",
",",
"and",
"that",
"'s",
"a",
"source",
"of",
"concern",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Michael",
"Kelly",
",",
"director",
"of",
"DARPA",
"'s",
"defense",
"manufacturing",
"office",
".",
"So",
"DARPA",
"is",
"trying",
"to",
"keep",
"the",
"industry",
"interested",
"in",
"developing",
"large",
"display",
"panels",
"by",
"doling",
"out",
"research",
"funds",
".",
"HDTV",
"already",
"has",
"some",
"military",
"applications",
",",
"such",
"as",
"creating",
"realistic",
"flight",
"simulations",
"and",
"transmitting",
"information",
"to",
"combat",
"commanders",
".",
"The",
"Navy",
"is",
"ordering",
"displays",
"for",
"its",
"Aegis",
"cruisers",
"and",
"the",
"Army",
"wants",
"smaller",
"versions",
"for",
"its",
"Abrams",
"battle",
"tanks",
".",
"The",
"Commerce",
"Department",
"also",
"is",
"trying",
"to",
"encourage",
"HDTV",
"because",
"of",
"the",
"benefits",
"that",
"could",
"spin",
"off",
"to",
"the",
"semiconductor",
"and",
"computer",
"industries",
".",
"``",
"It",
"is",
"n't",
"just",
"yuppie",
"television",
",",
"''",
"argues",
"Jack",
"Clifford",
",",
"director",
"of",
"the",
"department",
"'s",
"office",
"of",
"microelectronics",
"and",
"instrumentation",
".",
"``",
"The",
"industry",
"will",
"create",
"industrial",
"products",
"such",
"as",
"displays",
"for",
"work",
"stations",
"and",
"medical",
"diagnostic",
"equipment",
"before",
"it",
"acquires",
"a",
"mass",
"consumer",
"market",
".",
"''",
"Although",
"some",
"HDTV",
"advocates",
"are",
"calling",
"for",
"other",
"forms",
"of",
"aid",
",",
"such",
"as",
"antitrust",
"relief",
"for",
"research",
"consortia",
",",
"the",
"small",
"firms",
"simply",
"would",
"prefer",
"more",
"DARPA",
"funds",
".",
"Each",
"claims",
"to",
"possess",
"the",
"right",
"technology",
"and",
"wants",
"just",
"a",
"bit",
"more",
"money",
"to",
"make",
"it",
"commercial",
".",
"They",
"also",
"want",
"U.S.",
"trade",
"policy",
"to",
"reflect",
"the",
"Pentagon",
"and",
"Commerce",
"department",
"'s",
"concern",
"over",
"their",
"future",
".",
"They",
"all",
"are",
"strongly",
"opposed",
"to",
"a",
"petition",
"from",
"several",
"Japanese",
"TV",
"manufacturers",
",",
"including",
"Matsushita",
",",
"Hitachi",
",",
"and",
"Toshiba",
",",
"to",
"exempt",
"portable",
"color",
"TVs",
"with",
"liquid-crystal",
"displays",
"from",
"anti-dumping",
"duties",
"that",
"the",
"U.S.",
"imposes",
"on",
"the",
"larger",
"Japanese",
"color",
"TVs",
".",
"And",
"they",
"want",
"the",
"U.S.",
"to",
"help",
"them",
"sell",
"overseas",
".",
"Planar",
"President",
"James",
"Hurd",
"says",
"he",
"has",
"to",
"pay",
"tariffs",
"as",
"high",
"as",
"15",
"%",
"to",
"sell",
"his",
"display",
"panels",
"in",
"Japan",
"and",
"South",
"Korea",
",",
"while",
"panels",
"from",
"those",
"countries",
"enter",
"the",
"U.S.",
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".",
"``",
"This",
"is",
"n't",
"a",
"technology",
"issue",
",",
"but",
"an",
"attitude",
"issue",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"We",
"just",
"have",
"n't",
"learned",
"what",
"it",
"takes",
"to",
"compete",
"."
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",",
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"from",
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"9",
"%",
"level",
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"from",
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"through",
"September",
".",
"Kevin",
"Logan",
",",
"chief",
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"Swiss",
"Bank",
"Corp.",
",",
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"PPI",
"and",
"CPI",
"climbed",
"around",
"4",
"1/2",
"%",
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"in",
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".",
"He",
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"CPI",
"and",
"PPI",
"have",
"in",
"fact",
"decelerated",
"since",
"spring",
".",
"``",
"The",
"Fed",
"wo",
"n't",
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"stampeded",
"into",
"easing",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Logan",
"said",
",",
"predicting",
"that",
"for",
"now",
",",
"interest",
"rates",
"will",
"stay",
"where",
"they",
"are",
".",
"A",
"four-day",
"matched",
"sale-purchase",
"agreement",
",",
"a",
"move",
"to",
"drain",
"liquidity",
"from",
"the",
"system",
",",
"was",
"viewed",
"as",
"a",
"technical",
"move",
",",
"rather",
"than",
"an",
"indication",
"of",
"tightening",
"credit",
".",
"Market",
"participants",
"note",
"that",
"the",
"mark",
"continues",
"to",
"post",
"heftier",
"gains",
"against",
"its",
"U.S.",
"counterpart",
"than",
"any",
"other",
"major",
"currency",
",",
"particularly",
"the",
"yen",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"a",
"bottomless",
"pit",
"of",
"dollar",
"demand",
"''",
"by",
"Japanese",
"investors",
",",
"said",
"Graham",
"Beale",
",",
"managing",
"director",
"of",
"foreign",
"exchange",
"at",
"Hongkong",
"&",
"Shanghai",
"Banking",
"Corp.",
"in",
"New",
"York",
",",
"adding",
"that",
"purely",
"speculative",
"demand",
"would",
"n't",
"hold",
"the",
"dollar",
"at",
"its",
"recent",
"levels",
"against",
"the",
"Japanese",
"currency",
".",
"Mr.",
"Beale",
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"the",
"mark",
"remains",
"well",
"bid",
"against",
"other",
"currencies",
"as",
"well",
".",
"Robert",
"White",
",",
"manager",
"of",
"corporate",
"trading",
"at",
"First",
"Interstate",
"of",
"California",
",",
"called",
"the",
"market",
"``",
"psychologically",
"pro-mark",
",",
"''",
"noting",
"that",
"the",
"U.S.",
"remains",
"a",
"``",
"veritable",
"grab",
"bag",
"''",
"for",
"Japanese",
"investors",
"which",
"accounts",
"for",
"the",
"unabated",
"demand",
"for",
"U.S.",
"dollars",
".",
"On",
"the",
"Commodity",
"Exchange",
"in",
"New",
"York",
",",
"gold",
"dropped",
"$",
"1.60",
"to",
"$",
"367.10",
"an",
"ounce",
"in",
"moderate",
"trading",
".",
"Estimated",
"volume",
"was",
"three",
"million",
"ounces",
".",
"In",
"early",
"trading",
"in",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"Friday",
",",
"gold",
"was",
"at",
"about",
"$",
"366.85",
"an",
"ounce",
"."
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[
"Investors",
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[
"In",
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",",
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".",
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",",
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"Donald",
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",",
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".",
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",",
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"try",
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"do",
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"make",
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".",
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"is",
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"being",
"made",
"to",
"try",
"and",
"cause",
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"not",
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".",
"I",
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".",
"''",
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"Zoeller",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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".",
"``",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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"Amitai",
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",",
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".",
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",",
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".",
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",",
"a",
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"252",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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"people",
"were",
"uncharacteristically",
"conservative",
"about",
"the",
"Vietnam",
"War",
".",
"A",
"more",
"blue-collar",
"panel",
"became",
"a",
"second",
"aim",
".",
"Ultimately",
",",
"that",
"carefully",
"picked",
"jury",
"deadlocked",
"with",
"a",
"10-2",
"vote",
"to",
"acquit",
",",
"and",
"the",
"prosecution",
"decided",
"not",
"to",
"retry",
"the",
"case",
".",
"Litigation",
"consulting",
"had",
"arrived",
".",
"The",
"fledgling",
"science",
"went",
"corporate",
"in",
"1977",
"when",
"International",
"Business",
"Machines",
"Corp.",
"hired",
"a",
"marketing",
"professor",
"to",
"help",
"defend",
"a",
"complex",
"antitrust",
"case",
".",
"The",
"problem",
"for",
"IBM",
"trial",
"lawyers",
"Thomas",
"Barr",
"and",
"David",
"Boies",
"was",
"how",
"to",
"make",
"such",
"a",
"highly",
"technical",
"case",
"understandable",
".",
"As",
"the",
"trial",
"progressed",
",",
"they",
"were",
"eager",
"to",
"know",
"if",
"the",
"jury",
"was",
"keeping",
"up",
"with",
"them",
".",
"The",
"solution",
"devised",
"by",
"the",
"professor",
"was",
"to",
"hire",
"six",
"people",
"who",
"would",
"mirror",
"the",
"actual",
"jury",
"demographically",
",",
"sit",
"in",
"on",
"the",
"trial",
"and",
"report",
"their",
"reactions",
"to",
"him",
".",
"He",
"then",
"briefed",
"Messrs.",
"Boies",
"and",
"Barr",
",",
"who",
"had",
"the",
"chance",
"to",
"tilt",
"their",
"next",
"day",
"'s",
"presentation",
"accordingly",
".",
"Thus",
",",
"the",
"``",
"shadow",
"''",
"jury",
"was",
"born",
".",
"Mr.",
"Vinson",
",",
"the",
"professor",
",",
"got",
"the",
"law",
"bug",
"and",
"formed",
"Litigation",
"Sciences",
".",
"(",
"IBM",
"won",
"the",
"case",
".",
")",
"``",
"The",
"hardest",
"thing",
"in",
"any",
"complex",
"case",
"is",
"to",
"retain",
"objectivity",
"and",
",",
"in",
"some",
"sense",
",",
"your",
"ignorance",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Boies",
"of",
"Cravath",
",",
"Swaine",
"&",
"Moore",
".",
"``",
"What",
"you",
"look",
"for",
"in",
"a",
"shadow",
"jury",
"is",
"very",
"much",
"what",
"you",
"do",
"when",
"you",
"give",
"an",
"opening",
"argument",
"to",
"your",
"wife",
"or",
"a",
"friend",
"and",
"get",
"some",
"response",
"to",
"it",
".",
"A",
"shadow",
"jury",
"is",
"a",
"way",
"to",
"do",
"that",
"in",
"a",
"more",
"systematic",
"and",
"organized",
"way",
".",
"''",
"The",
"approach",
"worked",
"well",
"in",
"the",
"recent",
"antitrust",
"case",
"in",
"which",
"Energy",
"Transportation",
"Systems",
"Inc.",
"sued",
"Santa",
"Fe",
"Pacific",
"Corp.",
"over",
"the",
"transport",
"of",
"semi-liquefied",
"coal",
"--",
"the",
"kind",
"of",
"case",
"likely",
"to",
"make",
"almost",
"anyone",
"'s",
"eyes",
"glaze",
"over",
".",
"Energy",
"Transportation",
"retained",
"Litigation",
"Sciences",
",",
"at",
"a",
"cost",
"of",
"several",
"hundred",
"thousand",
"dollars",
",",
"to",
"poll",
",",
"pre-try",
",",
"profile",
"and",
"shadow",
".",
"Just",
"before",
"the",
"actual",
"closing",
"arguments",
",",
"the",
"firm",
"put",
"the",
"case",
"to",
"a",
"vote",
"of",
"the",
"five",
"shadow",
"jurors",
",",
"each",
"of",
"whom",
"was",
"being",
"paid",
"$",
"150",
"a",
"day",
".",
"The",
"jurors",
",",
"who",
"did",
"n't",
"know",
"which",
"side",
"had",
"retained",
"them",
",",
"decided",
"for",
"Energy",
"Transportation",
",",
"and",
"awarded",
"$",
"500",
"million",
"in",
"damages",
".",
"The",
"real",
"jury",
"returned",
"days",
"later",
"with",
"a",
"$",
"345",
"million",
"victory",
"for",
"Energy",
"Transportation",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"just",
"like",
"weather",
"forecasting",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Energy",
"Transportation",
"trial",
"attorney",
"Harry",
"Reasoner",
"of",
"Vinson",
"&",
"Elkins",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"often",
"wrong",
",",
"but",
"it",
"'s",
"better",
"than",
"consulting",
"an",
"Indian",
"rain",
"dancer",
".",
"''",
"Forecasting",
"is",
"only",
"one",
"part",
"of",
"Litigation",
"Sciences",
"'",
"work",
".",
"Changing",
"the",
"outcome",
"of",
"the",
"trial",
"is",
"what",
"really",
"matters",
".",
"And",
"to",
"the",
"uninitiated",
",",
"some",
"of",
"the",
"firm",
"'s",
"approaches",
"may",
"seem",
"chillingly",
"manipulative",
".",
"Theoretically",
",",
"jurors",
"are",
"supposed",
"to",
"weigh",
"the",
"evidence",
"in",
"a",
"case",
"logically",
"and",
"objectively",
".",
"Instead",
",",
"Mr.",
"Vinson",
"says",
",",
"interviews",
"with",
"thousands",
"of",
"jurors",
"reveal",
"that",
"they",
"start",
"with",
"firmly",
"entrenched",
"attitudes",
"and",
"try",
"to",
"shoe-horn",
"the",
"facts",
"of",
"the",
"case",
"to",
"fit",
"their",
"views",
".",
"Pre-trial",
"polling",
"helps",
"the",
"consultants",
"develop",
"a",
"profile",
"of",
"the",
"right",
"type",
"of",
"juror",
".",
"If",
"it",
"is",
"a",
"case",
"in",
"which",
"the",
"client",
"seeks",
"punitive",
"damages",
",",
"for",
"example",
",",
"depressed",
",",
"underemployed",
"people",
"are",
"far",
"more",
"likely",
"to",
"grant",
"them",
".",
"Someone",
"with",
"a",
"master",
"'s",
"degree",
"in",
"classical",
"arts",
"who",
"works",
"in",
"a",
"deli",
"would",
"be",
"ideal",
",",
"Litigation",
"Sciences",
"advises",
".",
"So",
"would",
"someone",
"recently",
"divorced",
"or",
"widowed",
".",
"(",
"Since",
"Litigation",
"Sciences",
"generally",
"represents",
"the",
"defense",
",",
"its",
"job",
"is",
"usually",
"to",
"help",
"the",
"lawyers",
"identify",
"and",
"remove",
"such",
"people",
"from",
"the",
"jury",
".",
")",
"For",
"personal-injury",
"cases",
",",
"Litigation",
"Sciences",
"seeks",
"defense",
"jurors",
"who",
"believe",
"that",
"most",
"people",
",",
"including",
"victims",
",",
"get",
"what",
"they",
"deserve",
".",
"Such",
"people",
"also",
"typically",
"hold",
"negative",
"attitudes",
"toward",
"the",
"physically",
"handicapped",
",",
"the",
"poor",
",",
"blacks",
"and",
"women",
".",
"The",
"consultants",
"help",
"the",
"defense",
"lawyers",
"find",
"such",
"jurors",
"by",
"asking",
"questions",
"about",
"potential",
"jurors",
"'",
"attitudes",
"toward",
"volunteer",
"work",
",",
"or",
"toward",
"particular",
"movies",
"or",
"books",
".",
"Litigation",
"Sciences",
"does",
"n't",
"make",
"moral",
"distinctions",
".",
"If",
"a",
"client",
"needs",
"prejudiced",
"jurors",
",",
"the",
"firm",
"will",
"help",
"find",
"them",
".",
"As",
"Mr.",
"Vinson",
"explains",
"it",
",",
"``",
"We",
"do",
"n't",
"control",
"the",
"facts",
".",
"They",
"are",
"what",
"they",
"are",
".",
"But",
"any",
"lawyer",
"will",
"select",
"the",
"facts",
"and",
"the",
"strategy",
"to",
"employ",
".",
"In",
"our",
"system",
"of",
"advocacy",
",",
"the",
"trial",
"lawyer",
"is",
"duty",
"bound",
"to",
"present",
"the",
"best",
"case",
"he",
"possibly",
"can",
".",
"''",
"Once",
"a",
"jury",
"is",
"selected",
",",
"the",
"consultants",
"often",
"continue",
"to",
"determine",
"what",
"the",
"jurors",
"'",
"attitudes",
"are",
"likely",
"to",
"be",
"and",
"help",
"shape",
"the",
"lawyers",
"'",
"presentation",
"accordingly",
".",
"Logic",
"plays",
"a",
"minimal",
"role",
"here",
".",
"More",
"important",
"are",
"what",
"LSI",
"calls",
"``",
"psychological",
"anchors",
"''",
"--",
"a",
"few",
"focal",
"points",
"calculated",
"to",
"appeal",
"to",
"the",
"jury",
"on",
"a",
"gut",
"level",
".",
"In",
"one",
"personal-injury",
"case",
",",
"a",
"woman",
"claimed",
"she",
"had",
"been",
"injured",
"when",
"she",
"slipped",
"in",
"a",
"pool",
",",
"but",
"the",
"fall",
"did",
"n't",
"explain",
"why",
"one",
"of",
"her",
"arms",
"was",
"discolored",
"bluish",
".",
"By",
"repeatedly",
"drawing",
"the",
"jury",
"'s",
"attention",
"to",
"the",
"arm",
",",
"the",
"defense",
"lawyers",
"planted",
"doubt",
"about",
"the",
"origin",
"of",
"the",
"woman",
"'s",
"injuries",
".",
"The",
"ploy",
"worked",
".",
"The",
"defense",
"won",
".",
"In",
"a",
"classic",
"defense",
"of",
"a",
"personal-injury",
"case",
",",
"the",
"consultants",
"concentrate",
"on",
"encouraging",
"the",
"jury",
"to",
"shift",
"the",
"blame",
".",
"``",
"The",
"ideal",
"defense",
"in",
"a",
"case",
"involving",
"an",
"accident",
"is",
"to",
"persuade",
"the",
"jurors",
"to",
"hold",
"the",
"accident",
"victim",
"responsible",
"for",
"his",
"or",
"her",
"plight",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Vinson",
"has",
"written",
".",
"Slick",
"graphics",
",",
"pre-tested",
"for",
"effectiveness",
",",
"also",
"play",
"a",
"major",
"role",
"in",
"Litigation",
"Sciences",
"'",
"operation",
".",
"Studies",
"show",
",",
"the",
"consultants",
"say",
",",
"that",
"people",
"absorb",
"information",
"better",
"and",
"remember",
"it",
"longer",
"if",
"they",
"receive",
"it",
"visually",
".",
"Computer-generated",
"videos",
"help",
".",
"``",
"The",
"average",
"American",
"watches",
"seven",
"hours",
"of",
"TV",
"a",
"day",
".",
"They",
"are",
"very",
"visually",
"sophisticated",
",",
"''",
"explains",
"LSI",
"graphics",
"specialist",
"Robert",
"Seltzer",
".",
"Lawyers",
"remain",
"divided",
"about",
"whether",
"anything",
"is",
"wrong",
"with",
"all",
"this",
".",
"Supporters",
"acknowledge",
"that",
"the",
"process",
"aims",
"to",
"manipulate",
",",
"but",
"they",
"insist",
"that",
"the",
"best",
"trial",
"lawyers",
"have",
"always",
"employed",
"similar",
"tactics",
".",
"``",
"They",
"may",
"not",
"have",
"been",
"able",
"to",
"articulate",
"it",
"all",
",",
"but",
"they",
"did",
"it",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Stephen",
"Gillers",
",",
"a",
"legal",
"ethics",
"expert",
"at",
"New",
"York",
"University",
"law",
"school",
".",
"``",
"What",
"you",
"have",
"here",
"is",
"intuition",
"made",
"manifest",
".",
"''",
"Many",
"lawyers",
"maintain",
"that",
"all",
"'s",
"fair",
"in",
"the",
"adversary",
"system",
"as",
"long",
"as",
"no",
"one",
"tampers",
"with",
"the",
"evidence",
".",
"Others",
"point",
"out",
"that",
"lawyers",
"in",
"small",
"communities",
"have",
"always",
"had",
"a",
"feel",
"for",
"public",
"sentiment",
"--",
"and",
"used",
"that",
"to",
"advantage",
".",
"Litigation",
"consulting",
"is",
"n't",
"a",
"guarantee",
"of",
"a",
"favorable",
"outcome",
".",
"Litigation",
"Sciences",
"concedes",
"that",
"in",
"one",
"in",
"20",
"cases",
"it",
"was",
"flatout",
"wrong",
"in",
"its",
"predictions",
".",
"A",
"few",
"attorneys",
"offer",
"horror",
"stories",
"of",
"jobs",
"botched",
"by",
"consultants",
"or",
"of",
"overpriced",
"services",
"--",
"as",
"when",
"one",
"lawyer",
"paid",
"a",
"consultant",
"(",
"not",
"at",
"Litigation",
"Sciences",
")",
"$",
"70,000",
"to",
"interview",
"a",
"jury",
"after",
"a",
"big",
"trial",
"and",
"later",
"read",
"more",
"informative",
"interviews",
"with",
"the",
"same",
"jurors",
"in",
"The",
"American",
"Lawyer",
"magazine",
".",
"Some",
"litigators",
"scoff",
"at",
"the",
"notion",
"that",
"a",
"sociologist",
"knows",
"more",
"than",
"they",
"do",
"about",
"what",
"makes",
"a",
"jury",
"tick",
".",
"``",
"The",
"essence",
"of",
"being",
"a",
"trial",
"lawyer",
"is",
"understanding",
"how",
"people",
"of",
"diverse",
"backgrounds",
"react",
"to",
"you",
"and",
"your",
"presentation",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Barry",
"Ostrager",
"of",
"Simpson",
"Thacher",
"&",
"Bartlett",
",",
"who",
"recently",
"won",
"a",
"huge",
"case",
"on",
"behalf",
"of",
"insurers",
"against",
"Shell",
"Oil",
"Co",
".",
"He",
"says",
"he",
"used",
"consultants",
"in",
"the",
"case",
"but",
"``",
"found",
"them",
"to",
"be",
"virtually",
"useless",
".",
"''",
"But",
"most",
"lawyers",
"accept",
"that",
"the",
"marketplace",
"has",
"spoken",
".",
"And",
"the",
"question",
"remains",
"whether",
"the",
"jury",
"system",
"can",
"maintain",
"its",
"integrity",
"while",
"undergoing",
"such",
"a",
"skillful",
"massage",
".",
"For",
"more",
"than",
"a",
"decade",
",",
"Mr.",
"Etzioni",
",",
"the",
"sociologist",
",",
"has",
"been",
"a",
"leading",
"critic",
"of",
"the",
"masseurs",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"no",
"reason",
"to",
"believe",
"that",
"juries",
"rule",
"inappropriately",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"But",
"the",
"last",
"thing",
"you",
"want",
"to",
"do",
"is",
"manipulate",
"the",
"subconscious",
"to",
"make",
"them",
"think",
"better",
".",
"What",
"you",
"then",
"do",
"is",
"you",
"make",
"them",
"think",
"inappropriately",
".",
"''",
"To",
"hamper",
"the",
"work",
"of",
"litigation",
"scientists",
",",
"he",
"suggests",
"that",
"courts",
"sharply",
"limit",
"the",
"number",
"of",
"jurors",
"that",
"lawyers",
"can",
"remove",
"from",
"the",
"jury",
"panel",
"through",
"so-called",
"peremptory",
"challenges",
"--",
"exclusions",
"that",
"do",
"n't",
"require",
"explanations",
".",
"In",
"most",
"civil",
"cases",
",",
"judges",
"allow",
"each",
"side",
"three",
"such",
"challenges",
".",
"For",
"complex",
"cases",
",",
"judges",
"sometimes",
"allow",
"many",
"more",
".",
"Mr.",
"Etzioni",
"also",
"suggests",
"forbidding",
"anyone",
"from",
"gathering",
"background",
"information",
"about",
"the",
"jurors",
".",
"(",
"Some",
"courts",
"release",
"names",
"and",
"addresses",
",",
"and",
"researchers",
"can",
"drive",
"by",
"houses",
",",
"look",
"up",
"credit",
"ratings",
",",
"and",
"even",
"question",
"neighbors",
".",
")",
"Furthermore",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"psychologists",
"should",
"not",
"be",
"allowed",
"to",
"analyze",
"jurors",
"'",
"personalities",
".",
"Even",
"some",
"lawyers",
"who",
"have",
"used",
"consultants",
"to",
"their",
"advantage",
"see",
"a",
"need",
"to",
"limit",
"their",
"impact",
".",
"Mr.",
"Boies",
",",
"the",
"first",
"lawyer",
"to",
"use",
"Mr.",
"Vinson",
"'s",
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[
"While",
"welcoming",
"Nicholas",
"McInnes",
"'s",
"Sept.",
"18",
"letter",
"offering",
"corrections",
"to",
"your",
"``",
"World-Wide",
"Tax",
"Revolution",
"''",
"table",
"(",
"editorial",
"page",
",",
"Aug.",
"29",
")",
",",
"I",
"am",
"surprised",
"that",
"he",
"neglected",
"other",
"errors",
"that",
",",
"for",
"some",
"of",
"us",
",",
"strike",
"close",
"to",
"home",
".",
"As",
"a",
"Channel",
"Islander",
",",
"I",
"was",
"amazed",
"to",
"see",
"my",
"birthplace",
"listed",
"as",
"one",
"of",
"``",
"86",
"countries",
"with",
"an",
"income",
"tax",
".",
"''",
"Despite",
"a",
"history",
"of",
"heated",
"local",
"debate",
"on",
"the",
"topic",
",",
"my",
"passport",
"clearly",
"reads",
"``",
"British",
"citizen",
".",
"''",
"Whether",
"Mr.",
"McInnes",
"'s",
"oversight",
"is",
"merely",
"a",
"sign",
"of",
"a",
"mainlander",
"'s",
"benign",
"neglect",
"is",
"a",
"question",
"my",
"fellow",
"Channel",
"Islanders",
"(",
"and",
"friends",
"on",
"the",
"Isle",
"of",
"Man",
")",
"will",
"continue",
"to",
"ponder",
".",
"Patrick",
"Basham"
] | [
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[
"Buying",
"51",
"%",
"of",
"Rockefeller",
"Group",
"Inc.",
"is",
"right",
"up",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"Co.",
"'s",
"alley",
"in",
"one",
"sense",
":",
"The",
"huge",
"Japanese",
"real",
"estate",
"company",
"is",
"entering",
"a",
"long-term",
"relationship",
"with",
"a",
"similarly",
"conservative",
"U.S.",
"owner",
"of",
"tony",
"urban",
"property",
".",
"But",
"in",
"another",
"sense",
",",
"the",
"$",
"846",
"million",
"purchase",
"is",
"uncharacteristically",
"nervy",
",",
"industry",
"analysts",
"say",
".",
"The",
"usually",
"cautious",
"giant",
"will",
"become",
"the",
"majority",
"owner",
"of",
"the",
"company",
"that",
"owns",
"New",
"York",
"'s",
"beloved",
"Rockefeller",
"Center",
"at",
"a",
"time",
"when",
"tensions",
"over",
"Japanese",
"purchases",
"of",
"U.S.",
"property",
"are",
"at",
"an",
"all-time",
"high",
".",
"Officials",
"of",
"Rockefeller",
"Group",
"and",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"prefer",
"to",
"focus",
"on",
"the",
"affinities",
",",
"nearly",
"dismissing",
"the",
"threat",
"of",
"a",
"backlash",
"from",
"the",
"U.S.",
"public",
".",
"``",
"We",
"think",
"there",
"will",
"be",
"positive",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"negative",
"reactions",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Raymond",
"Pettit",
",",
"senior",
"vice",
"president",
"and",
"chief",
"financial",
"officer",
"of",
"Rockefeller",
"Group",
".",
"``",
"On",
"balance",
",",
"we",
"think",
"it",
"will",
"be",
"positive",
".",
"''",
"But",
"some",
"Japanese",
"government",
"officials",
"and",
"businessmen",
"worry",
"that",
"the",
"prominent",
"purchase",
"is",
"just",
"the",
"sort",
"of",
"deal",
"that",
"should",
"be",
"avoided",
"for",
"the",
"time",
"being",
".",
"In",
"particular",
",",
"they",
"criticize",
"the",
"timing",
",",
"coming",
"as",
"it",
"does",
"on",
"the",
"heels",
"of",
"Sony",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"controversial",
"purchase",
"of",
"Columbia",
"Pictures",
"Entertainment",
"Inc",
".",
"``",
"Officially",
",",
"yes",
",",
"we",
"encourage",
"the",
"free",
"flow",
"of",
"direct",
"investment",
",",
"''",
"says",
"a",
"Foreign",
"Ministry",
"official",
".",
"``",
"But",
"they",
"did",
"n't",
"have",
"to",
"choose",
"this",
"particular",
"moment",
".",
"''",
"During",
"the",
"past",
"year",
",",
"government",
"officials",
"and",
"leading",
"business",
"organizations",
"have",
"repeatedly",
"urged",
"Japanese",
"companies",
"to",
"refrain",
"from",
"flashy",
"real",
"estate",
"purchases",
"in",
"the",
"Since",
"the",
"mid-1980s",
",",
"Japan",
"'s",
"other",
"major",
"real",
"estate",
"purchases",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
"include",
"Dai-Ichi",
"Seimei",
"America",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"$",
"670",
"million",
"purchase",
"of",
"an",
"office",
"building",
"at",
"153",
"East",
"53rd",
"St.",
"in",
"Manhattan",
"in",
"1987",
"and",
"Mitsui",
"Fudosan",
"Inc.",
"'s",
"$",
"610",
"million",
"purchase",
"of",
"the",
"Exxon",
"Building",
",",
"part",
"of",
"Rockefeller",
"Center",
",",
"in",
"1986",
".",
"In",
"Los",
"Angeles",
",",
"Arco",
"Plaza",
"was",
"sold",
"to",
"Shuwa",
"Corp.",
"for",
"$",
"620",
"million",
"in",
"1986",
",",
"and",
"Sumitomo",
"Life",
"Insurance",
"Co.",
"paid",
"$",
"300",
"million",
"for",
"Atlanta",
"'s",
"IBM",
"Tower",
"last",
"year",
".",
"Altogether",
",",
"annual",
"Japanese",
"investment",
"in",
"U.S.",
"commercial",
"real",
"estate",
"grew",
"from",
"about",
"$",
"1.3",
"billion",
"in",
"1985",
"to",
"about",
"$",
"7.1",
"billion",
"in",
"1988",
".",
"Many",
"Japanese",
"companies",
"have",
"taken",
"the",
"warnings",
"by",
"the",
"country",
"'s",
"leaders",
"to",
"heart",
"and",
"sought",
"development",
"partnerships",
"rather",
"than",
"landmark",
"properties",
".",
"Critics",
"say",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"'s",
"decision",
"to",
"buy",
"into",
"Rockefeller",
"reflects",
"the",
"degree",
"to",
"which",
"companies",
"are",
"irritated",
"by",
"the",
"pressure",
"to",
"act",
"for",
"the",
"good",
"of",
"Japan",
".",
"``",
"Those",
"who",
"have",
"no",
"money",
"and",
"are",
"n't",
"buying",
"think",
"it",
"'s",
"right",
"to",
"refrain",
",",
"but",
"those",
"with",
"money",
"who",
"want",
"to",
"buy",
"for",
"themselves",
"pay",
"no",
"attention",
",",
"''",
"says",
"an",
"official",
"of",
"the",
"Japan-U.S",
".",
"Business",
"Council",
".",
"But",
"to",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
",",
"the",
"acquisition",
"has",
"just",
"the",
"elements",
"that",
"should",
"win",
"support",
"from",
"both",
"sides",
".",
"First",
"of",
"all",
",",
"it",
"is",
"a",
"friendly",
"acquisition",
"in",
"which",
"Rockefeller",
"sought",
"out",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"and",
"asked",
"it",
"to",
"buy",
"a",
"majority",
"share",
".",
"Secondly",
",",
"the",
"two",
"companies",
"found",
"a",
"similarity",
"in",
"their",
"business",
"and",
"development",
"philosophies",
"and",
"intend",
"to",
"cooperate",
"in",
"a",
"range",
"of",
"activities",
"from",
"real",
"estate",
"to",
"telecommunications",
".",
"Finally",
",",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"has",
"no",
"plans",
"to",
"interfere",
"with",
"Rockefeller",
"'s",
"management",
"beyond",
"taking",
"a",
"place",
"on",
"the",
"board",
".",
"``",
"We",
"'ll",
"continue",
"to",
"work",
"with",
"them",
",",
"in",
"keeping",
"with",
"the",
"reputation",
"of",
"the",
"company",
",",
"and",
"we",
"'ll",
"rely",
"very",
"much",
"on",
"their",
"leadership",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"President",
"Jotaro",
"Takagi",
".",
"Rockefeller",
"may",
"well",
"have",
"found",
"its",
"match",
"in",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
",",
"a",
"company",
"of",
"long",
"history",
",",
"strong",
"government",
"ties",
"and",
"sound",
"resources",
".",
"In",
"asset",
"terms",
",",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"is",
"the",
"largest",
"real",
"estate",
"firm",
"in",
"Japan",
".",
"The",
"core",
"of",
"its",
"holdings",
"is",
"190,000",
"square",
"meters",
"of",
"incredibly",
"expensive",
"property",
"in",
"the",
"Marunouchi",
"district",
",",
"the",
"business",
"and",
"financial",
"center",
"of",
"Tokyo",
",",
"often",
"jokingly",
"called",
"``",
"Mitsubishi",
"Village",
".",
"''",
"The",
"Mitsubishi",
"family",
"company",
"acquired",
"that",
"property",
"from",
"the",
"government",
"some",
"100",
"years",
"ago",
"when",
"it",
"was",
"a",
"portion",
"of",
"samurai",
"residential",
"land",
"running",
"from",
"the",
"moat",
"of",
"the",
"Imperial",
"Palace",
"east",
"toward",
"the",
"hodgepodge",
"of",
"tiny",
"shops",
"and",
"twisted",
"alleys",
"that",
"made",
"up",
"the",
"merchants",
"'",
"district",
".",
"At",
"the",
"time",
",",
"Japan",
"had",
"just",
"opened",
"its",
"doors",
"to",
"the",
"world",
"after",
"about",
"250",
"years",
"of",
"isolation",
"and",
"needed",
"a",
"Western-style",
"business",
"center",
".",
"Mitsubishi",
"built",
"the",
"government",
"'s",
"dream",
"development",
",",
"the",
"story",
"goes",
",",
"in",
"exchange",
"for",
"the",
"official",
"decision",
"to",
"locate",
"Tokyo",
"'s",
"central",
"railway",
"station",
"there",
".",
"That",
"was",
"just",
"an",
"early",
"step",
"in",
"a",
"relationship",
"with",
"government",
"that",
"has",
"earned",
"the",
"Mitsubishi",
"group",
"the",
"dubious",
"moniker",
"of",
"``",
"seisho",
",",
"''",
"literally",
"government-business",
",",
"a",
"title",
"that",
"has",
"the",
"pejorative",
"connotation",
"of",
"doing",
"the",
"government",
"'s",
"bidding",
",",
"but",
"also",
"suggests",
"the",
"clout",
"inherent",
"in",
"maintaining",
"such",
"close",
"ties",
".",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"is",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"dozens",
"of",
"companies",
"in",
"today",
"'s",
"Mitsubishi",
"group",
".",
"It",
"'s",
"known",
"for",
"its",
"cautiousness",
"in",
"part",
"because",
"it",
"has",
"had",
"little",
"need",
"for",
"bold",
"overseas",
"ventures",
":",
"In",
"the",
"year",
"ended",
"March",
"31",
",",
"57.4",
"%",
"of",
"its",
"total",
"revenue",
"came",
"from",
"office",
"building",
"management",
".",
"Its",
"earnings",
"can",
"rise",
"10",
"%",
"to",
"12",
"%",
"annually",
"simply",
"from",
"the",
"natural",
"turnover",
"of",
"tenants",
"and",
"automatic",
"rent",
"increases",
",",
"says",
"Graeme",
"McDonald",
",",
"an",
"industry",
"analyst",
"at",
"James",
"Capel",
"Pacific",
"Ltd",
".",
"For",
"the",
"latest",
"fiscal",
"year",
",",
"the",
"company",
"'s",
"net",
"income",
"jumped",
"a",
"robust",
"19",
"%",
"to",
"35.5",
"billion",
"yen",
"(",
"$",
"250.2",
"million",
")",
".",
"For",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
",",
"the",
"Rockefeller",
"purchase",
"will",
"catapult",
"it",
"firmly",
"into",
"the",
"overseas",
"real",
"estate",
"business",
",",
"the",
"one",
"area",
"where",
"it",
"has",
"lagged",
"notably",
"behind",
"Japanese",
"competitors",
"such",
"as",
"Mitsui",
",",
"which",
"had",
"purchased",
"the",
"Exxon",
"Building",
".",
"``",
"Japanese",
"companies",
"need",
"to",
"invest",
"in",
"overseas",
"real",
"estate",
"for",
"diversification",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Yoshio",
"Shima",
",",
"an",
"industry",
"analyst",
"at",
"Goldman",
"Sachs",
"(",
"Japan",
")",
"Corp",
".",
"Rockefeller",
"is",
"n't",
"the",
"first",
"overseas",
"purchase",
"for",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"--",
"it",
"has",
"already",
"played",
"a",
"leading",
"role",
"in",
"designing",
"Los",
"Angeles",
"'s",
"Citicorp",
"Plaza",
".",
"But",
"the",
"Rockefeller",
"investment",
"is",
"its",
"largest",
".",
"Nonetheless",
",",
"it",
"will",
"barely",
"make",
"a",
"dent",
"in",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"'s",
"finances",
",",
"analysts",
"say",
".",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"has",
"n't",
"decided",
"how",
"it",
"will",
"raise",
"the",
"funds",
"for",
"the",
"purchase",
",",
"which",
"are",
"due",
"in",
"cash",
"next",
"April",
",",
"but",
"the",
"Marunouchi",
"holdings",
"alone",
"are",
"estimated",
"to",
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[
"Japanese",
"investors",
",",
"reassured",
"by",
"Monday",
"'s",
"strong",
"rally",
"on",
"Wall",
"Street",
",",
"erased",
"most",
"of",
"that",
"day",
"'s",
"losses",
"on",
"the",
"Tokyo",
"Stock",
"Exchange",
".",
"But",
"analysts",
"said",
"the",
"rebound",
"did",
"n't",
"remove",
"the",
"cautious",
"mood",
"from",
"the",
"market",
".",
"In",
"London",
",",
"stocks",
"closed",
"lower",
"in",
"volatile",
"trading",
"as",
"an",
"opening",
"rally",
"was",
"obliterated",
"by",
"worse-than-expected",
"U.S.",
"trade",
"figures",
".",
"Paris",
"shares",
"had",
"a",
"similar",
"reaction",
",",
"but",
"most",
"other",
"European",
"bourses",
"posted",
"gains",
",",
"as",
"did",
"all",
"major",
"Asian",
"and",
"Pacific",
"stock",
"markets",
".",
"Tokyo",
"'s",
"Nikkei",
"Index",
"of",
"225",
"stocks",
"jumped",
"527.39",
"points",
"to",
"close",
"at",
"34996.08",
".",
"The",
"rise",
"came",
"a",
"day",
"after",
"the",
"year",
"'s",
"biggest",
"drop",
"on",
"Monday",
",",
"when",
"the",
"Nikkei",
"fell",
"647.33",
",",
"or",
"1.8",
"%",
",",
"in",
"response",
"to",
"Friday",
"'s",
"6.9",
"%",
"plunge",
"on",
"Wall",
"Street",
".",
"In",
"early",
"trading",
"Wednesday",
"in",
"Tokyo",
",",
"the",
"Nikkei",
"index",
"rose",
"19.30",
"points",
"to",
"35015.38",
".",
"On",
"Tuesday",
",",
"the",
"broader-based",
"Tokyo",
"Stock",
"Price",
"Index",
"of",
"issues",
"listed",
"in",
"the",
"first",
"section",
",",
"which",
"fell",
"45.66",
"Monday",
",",
"rose",
"41.76",
",",
"or",
"1.61",
"%",
",",
"to",
"2642.64",
".",
"Trading",
"was",
"relatively",
"thin",
"at",
"an",
"estimated",
"650",
"million",
"shares",
",",
"though",
"brisker",
"than",
"Monday",
"'s",
"526",
"million",
".",
"Advancing",
"issues",
"outnumbered",
"decliners",
"821-201",
",",
"with",
"103",
"unchanged",
".",
"``",
"We",
"'re",
"back",
"to",
"square",
"one",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Simon",
"Smithson",
",",
"an",
"analyst",
"in",
"Japan",
"for",
"Kleinwort",
"Benson",
"International",
"Inc",
".",
"Japanese",
"domestic",
"institutions",
",",
"including",
"trust",
"banks",
"and",
"investment",
"management",
"firms",
",",
"that",
"had",
"been",
"on",
"the",
"sidelines",
"during",
"Monday",
"'s",
"fall",
"were",
"back",
"in",
"the",
"market",
",",
"analysts",
"said",
".",
"Foreign",
"investors",
"reportedly",
"started",
"off",
"selling",
"but",
"later",
"joined",
"in",
"the",
"buying",
".",
"The",
"Tokyo",
"rally",
"seemed",
"to",
"confirm",
"the",
"view",
",",
"frequently",
"expressed",
"in",
"Japan",
"in",
"the",
"past",
"few",
"days",
",",
"that",
"the",
"drop",
"in",
"New",
"York",
"was",
"a",
"local",
"problem",
"related",
"to",
"merger",
"and",
"acquisition",
"activity",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
".",
"``",
"This",
"time",
"we",
"do",
"n't",
"really",
"have",
"to",
"worry",
"about",
"Tokyo",
",",
"''",
"said",
"an",
"official",
"at",
"Daiwa",
"Securities",
"Co",
".",
"``",
"Nothing",
"has",
"changed",
"fundamentally",
"in",
"the",
"Tokyo",
"market",
".",
"''",
"But",
"even",
"though",
"Tokyo",
"appears",
"unharmed",
"by",
"recent",
"market",
"volatility",
",",
"analysts",
"and",
"traders",
"say",
"there",
"are",
"still",
"a",
"few",
"concerns",
"on",
"the",
"horizon",
".",
"In",
"particular",
",",
"Japanese",
"investors",
"will",
"be",
"keeping",
"a",
"wary",
"eye",
"on",
"Wall",
"Street",
"to",
"see",
"whether",
"Monday",
"'s",
"88.12-point",
"rally",
"holds",
"up",
"as",
"fresh",
"U.S.",
"economic",
"data",
"are",
"released",
".",
"``",
"People",
"are",
"placing",
"small",
"bets",
".",
"There",
"'s",
"no",
"huge",
"buying",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Stephen",
"Hill",
",",
"head",
"of",
"equity",
"sales",
"at",
"Jardine",
"Fleming",
"Securities",
"Ltd.",
"in",
"Tokyo",
".",
"``",
"Really",
"brave",
"views",
"right",
"now",
"would",
"be",
"foolhardy",
".",
"''",
"Yesterday",
"'s",
"buyers",
"favored",
"real",
"estate",
",",
"construction",
"and",
"other",
"large-capitalization",
"issues",
",",
"reflecting",
"the",
"fact",
"that",
"many",
"Tokyo",
"investors",
"now",
"feel",
"safer",
"with",
"domestically",
"oriented",
"stocks",
",",
"analysts",
"said",
".",
"They",
"also",
"are",
"concerned",
"about",
"the",
"persistent",
"strength",
"of",
"the",
"dollar",
"against",
"the",
"yen",
",",
"as",
"a",
"weaker",
"yen",
"leads",
"to",
"higher",
"import",
"prices",
"in",
"Japan",
"and",
"adds",
"to",
"domestic",
"inflationary",
"pressures",
".",
"Currency",
"concerns",
"also",
"weigh",
"heavily",
"on",
"interest",
"rate-sensitive",
"stocks",
"such",
"as",
"banking",
"and",
"other",
"financial",
"issues",
"because",
"of",
"fears",
"that",
"Japanese",
"interest",
"rates",
"might",
"have",
"to",
"rise",
"to",
"keep",
"the",
"dollar",
"in",
"check",
".",
"Among",
"steel",
"shares",
",",
"NKK",
"rose",
"19",
"to",
"705",
"yen",
"(",
"$",
"4.97",
")",
"a",
"share",
",",
"and",
"Nippon",
"Steel",
"gained",
"17",
"to",
"735",
".",
"Construction",
"shares",
"that",
"gained",
"included",
"Shimizu",
",",
"which",
"rose",
"130",
"to",
"2,080",
".",
"In",
"the",
"real",
"estate",
"sector",
",",
"Mitsui",
"Real",
"Estate",
"Development",
"was",
"up",
"100",
"at",
"2,760",
",",
"and",
"Mitsubishi",
"Estate",
"gained",
"80",
"to",
"2,360",
".",
"London",
"'s",
"Financial",
"Times-Stock",
"Exchange",
"100-share",
"index",
"fell",
"27.9",
"points",
"to",
"2135.5",
".",
"It",
"was",
"down",
"more",
"than",
"40",
"points",
"a",
"half-hour",
"before",
"the",
"close",
",",
"marking",
"a",
"61.5-point",
"turnaround",
"from",
"its",
"high",
",",
"reached",
"in",
"the",
"first",
"15",
"minutes",
"of",
"trading",
".",
"The",
"narrower",
"Financial",
"Times",
"30-share",
"index",
"fell",
"29.6",
"to",
"1730.7",
".",
"Volume",
"was",
"an",
"active",
"643.3",
"million",
"shares",
",",
"about",
"double",
"the",
"recent",
"levels",
"but",
"down",
"from",
"959.3",
"million",
"the",
"previous",
"day",
",",
"which",
"U.K.",
"traders",
"have",
"dubbed",
"``",
"Manic",
"Monday",
".",
"''",
"Prices",
"opened",
"strongly",
"on",
"the",
"basis",
"of",
"Monday",
"'s",
"Wall",
"Street",
"rally",
"and",
"yesterday",
"'s",
"gains",
"in",
"Tokyo",
".",
"But",
"the",
"advance",
"faltered",
"as",
"index-options",
"traders",
"and",
"investors",
"jittery",
"about",
"the",
"U.K.",
"economic",
"outlook",
"took",
"over",
".",
"The",
"unexpectedly",
"wide",
"U.S.",
"August",
"trade",
"deficit",
"of",
"$",
"10.77",
"billion",
"hit",
"an",
"already",
"jittery",
"U.K.",
"market",
"in",
"midafternoon",
".",
"Michael",
"Hicks",
",",
"who",
"manages",
"sales",
"and",
"trading",
"for",
"brokerage",
"concern",
"Societe",
"Generale",
"Strauss",
"Turnbull",
",",
"said",
":",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"a",
"nervous",
"market",
".",
"It",
"was",
"all",
"over",
"the",
"place",
".",
"If",
"you",
"bought",
",",
"you",
"wish",
"you",
"had",
"n't",
",",
"and",
"if",
"you",
"sold",
",",
"you",
"wish",
"you",
"had",
"n't",
".",
"''",
"He",
"said",
"the",
"current",
"market",
"``",
"is",
"all",
"about",
"sentiment",
",",
"and",
"the",
"sentiment",
"in",
"London",
"is",
"90",
"%",
"anxiety",
"and",
"worry",
".",
"''",
"Britain",
"'s",
"economic",
"fundamentals",
",",
"he",
"said",
",",
"``",
"do",
"n't",
"look",
"very",
"bright",
".",
"''",
"Dealers",
"said",
"London",
"showed",
"signs",
"of",
"calming",
"in",
"midafternoon",
"after",
"Wall",
"Street",
"avoided",
"sharp",
"losses",
"despite",
"the",
"trade",
"report",
",",
"but",
"a",
"wave",
"of",
"futures-related",
"selling",
"later",
"in",
"the",
"session",
"sent",
"buyers",
"back",
"to",
"the",
"sidelines",
".",
"Still",
",",
"some",
"sectors",
"found",
"buying",
"interest",
"after",
"being",
"actively",
"sold",
"in",
"recent",
"weeks",
".",
"Merchant",
"banks",
"were",
"stronger",
"across",
"the",
"board",
".",
"Morgan",
"Grenfell",
",",
"which",
"has",
"been",
"mentioned",
"in",
"takeover",
"rumors",
",",
"rose",
"20",
"to",
"392",
"pence",
"(",
"$",
"6.18",
")",
"a",
"share",
".",
"S.G.",
"Warburg",
",",
"a",
"rumored",
"target",
"of",
"some",
"European",
"banking",
"concerns",
",",
"finished",
"22",
"higher",
"at",
"400",
".",
"Hambros",
"rose",
"5",
"to",
"204",
",",
"and",
"Schroders",
"rose",
"25",
"to",
"#",
"12.75",
".",
"On",
"the",
"corporate",
"front",
",",
"Ford",
"Motor",
"announced",
"that",
"it",
"raised",
"its",
"stake",
"in",
"U.K.",
"luxury",
"car",
"maker",
"Jaguar",
"to",
"10.4",
"%",
"from",
"5",
"%",
".",
"Jaguar",
"shares",
"jumped",
"23",
"before",
"easing",
"to",
"close",
"at",
"654",
",",
"up",
"6",
".",
"Amstrad",
",",
"a",
"British",
"computer",
"hardware",
"and",
"communications",
"equipment",
"maker",
",",
"eased",
"4",
"to",
"47",
".",
"It",
"announced",
"a",
"52",
"%",
"plunge",
"in",
"pretax",
"profit",
"for",
"the",
"latest",
"year",
".",
"Brewery",
"stocks",
"were",
"firm",
"to",
"higher",
"on",
"talk",
"of",
"early",
"bargain-hunting",
",",
"but",
"most",
"ended",
"below",
"their",
"peaks",
".",
"Bass",
"ended",
"up",
"3",
"higher",
"at",
"966",
",",
"Guinness",
"closed",
"at",
"589",
",",
"down",
"7",
",",
"and",
"Scottish",
"&",
"Newcastle",
"dropped",
"11",
"to",
"359",
",",
"but",
"Whitbread",
"Class",
"A",
"shares",
"rose",
"17",
"to",
"363",
".",
"Dealers",
"said",
"there",
"was",
"late",
"talk",
"of",
"a",
"Whitbread",
"sale",
"of",
"brewing",
"operations",
"to",
"Scottish",
"&",
"Newcastle",
".",
"The",
"most",
"active",
"shares",
"were",
"major",
"blue-chips",
",",
"particularly",
"oils",
"and",
"utilities",
"such",
"as",
"British",
"Gas",
"and",
"British",
"Telecommunications",
".",
"Traders",
"attributed",
"the",
"action",
"in",
"them",
"largely",
"to",
"defensive",
"positioning",
"in",
"a",
"volatile",
"market",
".",
"British",
"Gas",
"finished",
"at",
"197",
",",
"down",
"2",
",",
"on",
"13",
"million",
"shares",
",",
"British",
"Petroleum",
"fell",
"8",
"to",
"291",
"on",
"9.4",
"million",
"shares",
",",
"and",
"British",
"Telecom",
"was",
"4",
"lower",
"at",
"261",
"on",
"turnover",
"of",
"10",
"million",
"shares",
".",
"Cable",
"&",
"Wireless",
"fell",
"20",
"to",
"478",
".",
"Also",
"in",
"active",
"trading",
",",
"British",
"Steel",
"fell",
"1",
"to",
"124",
"as",
"20",
"million",
"shares",
"changed",
"hands",
".",
"Racal",
"Electric",
",",
"which",
"traded",
"11",
"million",
"shares",
",",
"declined",
"12",
"to",
"218",
".",
"In",
"other",
"European",
"markets",
",",
"share",
"prices",
"closed",
"sharply",
"higher",
"in",
"Frankfurt",
"and",
"Zurich",
"and",
"posted",
"moderate",
"rises",
"in",
"Stockholm",
",",
"Amsterdam",
"and",
"Milan",
".",
"Paris",
"closed",
"lower",
",",
"and",
"most",
"Brussels",
"shares",
"were",
"unable",
"to",
"trade",
"for",
"a",
"second",
"consecutive",
"day",
"because",
"of",
"technical",
"problems",
".",
"South",
"African",
"gold",
"stocks",
"closed",
"higher",
".",
"Elsewhere",
",",
"share",
"prices",
"rebounded",
"in",
"Hong",
"Kong",
",",
"Sydney",
",",
"Singapore",
",",
"Wellington",
",",
"Taipei",
",",
"Manila",
"and",
"Seoul",
".",
"In",
"Hong",
"Kong",
",",
"Sydney",
"and",
"Singapore",
"--",
"the",
"largest",
"of",
"those",
"exchanges",
"--",
"stocks",
"recovered",
"one-third",
"to",
"one-half",
"of",
"the",
"ground",
"they",
"lost",
"in",
"Monday",
"'s",
"plunge",
",",
"with",
"major",
"market",
"indexes",
"posting",
"gains",
"of",
"3.6",
"%",
"to",
"4.4",
"%",
".",
"Here",
"are",
"price",
"trends",
"on",
"the",
"world",
"'s",
"major",
"stock",
"markets",
",",
"as",
"calculated",
"by",
"Morgan",
"Stanley",
"Capital",
"International",
"Perspective",
",",
"Geneva",
".",
"To",
"make",
"them",
"directly",
"comparable",
",",
"each",
"index",
"is",
"based",
"on",
"the",
"close",
"of",
"1969",
"equaling",
"100",
".",
"The",
"percentage",
"change",
"is",
"since",
"year-end",
"."
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[
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[
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"Lines",
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"$",
"14",
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".",
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"account",
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"``",
"far",
"less",
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"half",
"''",
"of",
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"Corp.",
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",",
"and",
"National",
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"Systems",
"Inc.",
",",
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",",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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"and",
"fliers",
"can",
"get",
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"discounts",
".",
"``",
"I",
"can",
"not",
"see",
"how",
"this",
"news",
"by",
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"and",
"Avis",
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",",
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",",
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"'s",
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",",
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"planning",
".",
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",",
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".",
"A",
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",",
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",",
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"Ridge",
",",
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",",
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"end",
"with",
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",",
"America",
"West",
"and",
"Texas",
"Air",
"Corp.",
"'s",
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"Airlines",
"and",
"Eastern",
"Airlines",
",",
"and",
"that",
"pacts",
"with",
"American",
"Airlines",
",",
"UAL",
"Inc",
"'s",
"United",
"Airlines",
"and",
"USAir",
"also",
"would",
"be",
"ended",
"...",
"sometime",
"after",
"Dec.",
"31",
".",
"At",
"the",
"time",
",",
"Hertz",
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"fees",
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"and",
"that",
"the",
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"of",
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"topped",
"$",
"15",
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".",
"Analysts",
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"competitors",
",",
"however",
",",
"doubt",
"the",
"numbers",
"were",
"that",
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".",
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"are",
"``",
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"''",
"Avis",
"'s",
"level",
".",
"Robert",
"D.",
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",",
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",",
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",",
"``",
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"-LCB-",
"frequent-flier",
"programs",
"-RCB-",
"have",
"significantly",
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"their",
"value",
".",
"''",
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",",
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"Charles",
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",",
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"industry",
"analyst",
"at",
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".",
"Brown",
"&",
"Sons",
".",
"``",
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"'ve",
"been",
"looking",
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"get",
"their",
"costs",
"down",
",",
"and",
"this",
"is",
"a",
"fairly",
"sensible",
"way",
"to",
"do",
"it",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
"."
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[
"The",
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",",
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"be",
"less",
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"factory",
"pay",
",",
"Mr.",
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".",
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"Roukema",
"(",
"R.",
",",
"N.J",
".",
")",
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",",
"''",
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"makers",
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",",
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".",
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"or",
"85",
"%",
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"minimum",
"wage",
",",
"in",
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"1991",
".",
"Employers",
"can",
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"the",
"subminimum",
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"90",
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"without",
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",",
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"experience",
",",
"and",
"for",
"another",
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"uses",
"a",
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"training",
"program",
"for",
"the",
"young",
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"wage",
"covers",
"only",
"workers",
"who",
"are",
"16",
"to",
"19",
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".",
"The",
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"took",
"a",
"new",
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".",
"The",
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",",
"still",
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"increase",
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"compromise",
"plan",
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"floor",
"27",
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"stages",
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"April",
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"``",
"will",
"be",
"impossible",
"for",
"many",
"employers",
"to",
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"and",
"will",
"result",
"in",
"the",
"elimination",
"of",
"jobs",
"for",
"American",
"workers",
"and",
"higher",
"prices",
"for",
"American",
"consumers",
"."
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[
"Rochester",
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",",
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".",
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",",
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"."
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[
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",",
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",",
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"."
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[
"AMERICAN",
"BRANDS",
"Inc.",
",",
"Old",
"Greenwich",
",",
"Conn.",
",",
"said",
"it",
"increased",
"its",
"quarterly",
"11",
"%",
"to",
"68",
"cents",
"a",
"share",
"from",
"61",
"cents",
",",
"payable",
"Dec.",
"1",
"to",
"stock",
"of",
"record",
"Nov.",
"10",
".",
"The",
"increase",
"follows",
"the",
"company",
"'s",
"report",
"of",
"strong",
"earnings",
"for",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
",",
"and",
"reflects",
"what",
"American",
"Brands",
"called",
"its",
"``",
"tradition",
"of",
"sharing",
"earnings",
"growth",
"''",
"with",
"shareholders",
".",
"American",
"Brands",
"is",
"a",
"consumer",
"products",
"company",
"with",
"core",
"businesses",
"in",
"tobacco",
",",
"distilled",
"spirits",
"and",
"life",
"insurance",
".",
"As",
"of",
"Sept.",
"30",
",",
"American",
"Brands",
"had",
"95.2",
"million",
"shares",
"outstanding",
"."
] | [
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[
"Crude",
"prices",
"spurted",
"upward",
"in",
"brisk",
"trading",
"on",
"the",
"assumption",
"that",
"heavy",
"earthquake",
"damage",
"occurred",
"to",
"San",
"Francisco",
"area",
"refinery",
"complexes",
",",
"but",
"the",
"rise",
"quickly",
"fizzled",
"when",
"it",
"became",
"apparent",
"that",
"oil",
"operations",
"were",
"n't",
"severely",
"curtailed",
".",
"Trading",
"on",
"little",
"specific",
"information",
",",
"market",
"players",
"overnight",
"in",
"Tokyo",
"began",
"bidding",
"up",
"oil",
"prices",
".",
"The",
"rally",
"spread",
"into",
"European",
"markets",
",",
"where",
"traders",
"were",
"still",
"betting",
"that",
"the",
"earthquake",
"disrupted",
"the",
"San",
"Francisco",
"area",
"'s",
"large",
"oil",
"refining",
"plants",
".",
"By",
"yesterday",
"morning",
",",
"much",
"of",
"the",
"world",
"was",
"still",
"unable",
"to",
"reach",
"San",
"Francisco",
"by",
"telephone",
".",
"West",
"Texas",
"Intermediate",
"was",
"bid",
"up",
"more",
"than",
"20",
"cents",
"a",
"barrel",
"in",
"many",
"overseas",
"markets",
".",
"At",
"the",
"opening",
"of",
"the",
"New",
"York",
"Mercantile",
"Exchange",
",",
"West",
"Texas",
"Intermediate",
"for",
"November",
"delivery",
"shot",
"up",
"10",
"cents",
"a",
"barrel",
",",
"to",
"$",
"20.85",
",",
"still",
"on",
"the",
"belief",
"that",
"the",
"refineries",
"were",
"damaged",
".",
"In",
"the",
"San",
"Francisco",
"area",
",",
"roughly",
"800,000",
"barrels",
"a",
"day",
"of",
"crude",
",",
"about",
"a",
"third",
"of",
"all",
"the",
"refining",
"capacity",
"in",
"California",
",",
"is",
"processed",
"daily",
",",
"according",
"to",
"industry",
"data",
".",
"For",
"more",
"than",
"the",
"past",
"year",
",",
"even",
"the",
"rumor",
"of",
"a",
"major",
"West",
"Coast",
"refinery",
"shutdown",
"has",
"been",
"enough",
"to",
"spark",
"a",
"futures",
"rally",
"because",
"the",
"gasoline",
"market",
"is",
"so",
"tight",
".",
"But",
"yesterday",
",",
"as",
"the",
"morning",
"wore",
"on",
",",
"some",
"major",
"West",
"Coast",
"refinery",
"operators",
"--",
"including",
"Chevron",
"Corp.",
",",
"Exxon",
"Corp.",
"and",
"the",
"Shell",
"Oil",
"Co.",
"unit",
"of",
"Royal",
"Dutch/Shell",
"Group",
"--",
"said",
"their",
"refineries",
"were",
"n't",
"damaged",
"and",
"were",
"continuing",
"to",
"operate",
"normally",
".",
"Most",
"said",
"they",
"shut",
"down",
"their",
"petroleum",
"pipeline",
"operations",
"as",
"a",
"precaution",
"but",
"did",
"n't",
"see",
"any",
"immediate",
"damage",
".",
"Gasoline",
"terminals",
"were",
"also",
"largely",
"unhurt",
",",
"they",
"said",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"hard",
"to",
"imagine",
"how",
"the",
"markets",
"were",
"speculating",
",",
"given",
"that",
"nobody",
"could",
"get",
"through",
"to",
"San",
"Francisco",
",",
"''",
"said",
"one",
"amazed",
"oil",
"company",
"executive",
".",
"As",
"the",
"news",
"spread",
"that",
"the",
"refineries",
"were",
"intact",
",",
"crude",
"prices",
"plunged",
",",
"ending",
"the",
"day",
"at",
"$",
"20.56",
"a",
"barrel",
",",
"down",
"19",
"cents",
".",
"Gasoline",
"for",
"November",
"delivery",
"was",
"off",
"1.26",
"cents",
"a",
"gallon",
"to",
"54.58",
"cents",
".",
"Heating",
"oil",
"finished",
"at",
"60.6",
"cents",
",",
"down",
"0.45",
"cent",
".",
"``",
"The",
"market",
"was",
"basically",
"acting",
"on",
"two",
"contradictory",
"forces",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Nauman",
"Barakat",
"of",
"Shearson",
"Lehman",
"Hutton",
"Inc",
".",
"``",
"One",
"is",
"the",
"panic",
",",
"the",
"earthquake",
"in",
"San",
"Francisco",
",",
"which",
"is",
"positive",
".",
"''",
"But",
"once",
"that",
"factor",
"was",
"eliminated",
",",
"traders",
"took",
"profits",
"and",
"focused",
"on",
"crude",
"oil",
"inventories",
",",
"Mr.",
"Barakat",
"said",
".",
"After",
"the",
"market",
"closed",
"Tuesday",
",",
"the",
"American",
"Petroleum",
"Institute",
"had",
"reported",
"that",
"crude",
"stocks",
"increased",
"by",
"5.7",
"million",
"barrels",
"in",
"the",
"week",
"ended",
"Friday",
",",
"which",
"traders",
"viewed",
"as",
"bearish",
".",
"But",
"some",
"market",
"players",
"still",
"think",
"earthquake",
"speculation",
"could",
"have",
"more",
"impact",
"on",
"the",
"oil",
"markets",
".",
"``",
"The",
"problem",
"is",
"that",
"while",
"on",
"the",
"surface",
"everything",
"is",
"all",
"right",
",",
"the",
"question",
"is",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Barakat",
",",
"``",
"was",
"there",
"any",
"structural",
"damage",
"to",
"the",
"pipelines",
"or",
"anything",
"else",
".",
"''",
"In",
"other",
"commodity",
"markets",
"yesterday",
":",
"COPPER",
":",
"Futures",
"prices",
"eased",
"on",
"indications",
"of",
"improvement",
"in",
"the",
"industry",
"'s",
"labor",
"situation",
".",
"The",
"December",
"contract",
"declined",
"1.85",
"cents",
"a",
"pound",
"to",
"$",
"1.2645",
".",
"According",
"to",
"one",
"analyst",
",",
"workers",
"at",
"the",
"Cananea",
"copper",
"mine",
"in",
"Mexico",
",",
"which",
"has",
"n't",
"been",
"operating",
"since",
"it",
"was",
"declared",
"bankrupt",
"by",
"the",
"Mexican",
"government",
"in",
"late",
"August",
",",
"are",
"set",
"to",
"return",
"to",
"work",
".",
"The",
"analyst",
"said",
"it",
"will",
"take",
"about",
"two",
"to",
"three",
"months",
"before",
"the",
"mine",
"begins",
"to",
"produce",
"copper",
"in",
"significant",
"quantities",
".",
"He",
"added",
"that",
",",
"while",
"there",
"has",
"n't",
"been",
"any",
"official",
"announcement",
"as",
"yet",
",",
"the",
"Highland",
"Valley",
"mine",
"strike",
"in",
"British",
"Columbia",
",",
"which",
"has",
"lasted",
"more",
"than",
"three",
"months",
",",
"is",
"regarded",
"as",
"settled",
".",
"Another",
"analyst",
"said",
"the",
"Cananea",
"return",
"to",
"operation",
"may",
"not",
"be",
"as",
"near",
"as",
"some",
"expect",
".",
"``",
"There",
"are",
"still",
"negotiations",
"taking",
"place",
"on",
"whether",
"there",
"will",
"be",
"a",
"loss",
"of",
"jobs",
",",
"which",
"has",
"been",
"a",
"critical",
"issue",
"all",
"along",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
".",
"Nevertheless",
",",
"the",
"increasing",
"likelihood",
"that",
"these",
"two",
"major",
"supply",
"disruptions",
"will",
"be",
"resolved",
"weighed",
"on",
"the",
"market",
",",
"the",
"analysts",
"agreed",
".",
"Both",
"of",
"these",
"mines",
"are",
"normally",
"major",
"suppliers",
"of",
"copper",
"to",
"Japan",
",",
"which",
"has",
"been",
"buying",
"copper",
"on",
"the",
"world",
"market",
".",
"The",
"first",
"analyst",
"said",
"that",
"the",
"Japanese",
",",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"the",
"Chinese",
",",
"bought",
"copper",
"earlier",
"in",
"the",
"week",
"in",
"London",
",",
"but",
"that",
"this",
"purchasing",
"has",
"since",
"slackened",
"as",
"the",
"supply",
"situation",
",",
"at",
"least",
"over",
"the",
"long",
"term",
",",
"appears",
"to",
"have",
"improved",
".",
"``",
"The",
"focus",
"for",
"some",
"time",
"has",
"been",
"on",
"the",
"copper",
"supply",
",",
"and",
"good",
"demand",
"has",
"been",
"taken",
"for",
"granted",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
".",
"``",
"Now",
"that",
"the",
"supply",
"situation",
"seems",
"to",
"be",
"improving",
",",
"it",
"would",
"be",
"best",
"for",
"traders",
"to",
"switch",
"their",
"concentration",
"to",
"the",
"demand",
"side",
".",
"''",
"He",
"noted",
"the",
"Commerce",
"Department",
"report",
"yesterday",
"that",
"housing",
"starts",
"in",
"September",
"dropped",
"5.2",
"%",
"from",
"August",
"to",
"1.26",
"million",
"units",
"on",
"an",
"annualized",
"basis",
",",
"the",
"lowest",
"level",
"in",
"seven",
"years",
".",
"``",
"Along",
"with",
"these",
"factors",
",",
"other",
"economic",
"reports",
"suggest",
"a",
"slowing",
"of",
"the",
"economy",
",",
"which",
"could",
"mean",
"reduced",
"copper",
"usage",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
".",
"SUGAR",
":",
"Futures",
"prices",
"extended",
"Tuesday",
"'s",
"gains",
".",
"The",
"March",
"delivery",
"ended",
"with",
"an",
"advance",
"of",
"0.16",
"cent",
"a",
"pound",
"to",
"14.27",
"cents",
",",
"for",
"a",
"two-day",
"gain",
"of",
"0.3",
"cent",
".",
"According",
"to",
"one",
"dealer",
",",
"Japan",
"said",
"it",
"has",
"only",
"40,000",
"tons",
"of",
"sugar",
"remaining",
"to",
"be",
"shipped",
"to",
"it",
"this",
"year",
"by",
"Cuba",
"under",
"current",
"commitments",
".",
"The",
"announcement",
"was",
"made",
"because",
"of",
"reports",
"Tuesday",
"that",
"Cuba",
"would",
"delay",
"shipments",
"to",
"Japan",
"scheduled",
"for",
"later",
"this",
"year",
",",
"into",
"early",
"next",
"year",
".",
"The",
"dealer",
"said",
"the",
"quantity",
"mentioned",
"in",
"the",
"Japanese",
"announcement",
"is",
"so",
"small",
"that",
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".",
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"a",
"delay",
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"the",
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"sugar",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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"LIVESTOCK",
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"MEATS",
":",
"The",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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"8",
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"1988",
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".",
"Factory",
"workers",
"on",
"strike",
"knocked",
"Poland",
"'s",
"Communist",
"bosses",
"off",
"balance",
"last",
"year",
";",
"this",
"year",
",",
"it",
"was",
"the",
"farmers",
"who",
"brought",
"them",
"down",
".",
"In",
"June",
",",
"farmers",
"held",
"onto",
"meat",
",",
"milk",
"and",
"grain",
",",
"waiting",
"for",
"July",
"'s",
"usual",
"state-directed",
"price",
"rises",
".",
"The",
"Communists",
"froze",
"prices",
"instead",
".",
"The",
"farmers",
"ran",
"a",
"boycott",
",",
"and",
"meat",
"disappeared",
"from",
"the",
"shops",
".",
"On",
"Aug.",
"1",
",",
"the",
"state",
"tore",
"up",
"its",
"controls",
",",
"and",
"food",
"prices",
"leaped",
".",
"Without",
"buffer",
"stocks",
",",
"inflation",
"exploded",
".",
"That",
"was",
"when",
"the",
"tame",
"old",
"Peasants",
"'",
"Party",
",",
"desperate",
"to",
"live",
"through",
"the",
"crisis",
",",
"broke",
"ranks",
"with",
"the",
"Communists",
"and",
"joined",
"with",
"Solidarity",
"in",
"the",
"East",
"Bloc",
"'s",
"first",
"liberated",
"government",
".",
"But",
"by",
"the",
"time",
"Solidarity",
"took",
"office",
"in",
"September",
",",
"the",
"damage",
"was",
"done",
".",
"``",
"Shortageflation",
",",
"''",
"as",
"economists",
"have",
"come",
"to",
"call",
"it",
",",
"had",
"gone",
"hyper",
".",
"The",
"cost",
"of",
"raising",
"a",
"pig",
"kept",
"bounding",
"ahead",
"of",
"the",
"return",
"for",
"selling",
"one",
".",
"The",
"farmers",
"stayed",
"angry",
".",
"They",
"still",
"are",
".",
"At",
"dawn",
"on",
"a",
"cool",
"day",
",",
"hundreds",
"travel",
"to",
"the",
"private",
"market",
"in",
"Radzymin",
",",
"a",
"town",
"not",
"far",
"from",
"Warsaw",
",",
"hauling",
"pigs",
",",
"cattle",
"and",
"sacks",
"of",
"feed",
"that",
"the",
"state",
"'s",
"official",
"buyers",
"ca",
"n't",
"induce",
"them",
"to",
"sell",
".",
"Here",
",",
"they",
"are",
"searching",
"for",
"a",
"higher",
"price",
".",
"In",
"a",
"crush",
"of",
"trucks",
"and",
"horse",
"carts",
"on",
"the",
"trodden",
"field",
",",
"Andrzej",
"Latowski",
"wrestles",
"a",
"screeching",
",",
"overweight",
"hog",
"into",
"the",
"trunk",
"of",
"a",
"private",
"butcher",
"'s",
"Polish",
"Fiat",
".",
"``",
"Of",
"course",
"it",
"'s",
"better",
"to",
"sell",
"private",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
",",
"as",
"the",
"butcher",
"trundles",
"away",
".",
"``",
"Why",
"should",
"anybody",
"want",
"to",
"sell",
"to",
"them",
"?",
"''",
"The",
"young",
"farmer",
"makes",
"money",
"on",
"the",
"few",
"hogs",
"he",
"sells",
"here",
".",
"He",
"wo",
"n't",
"for",
"long",
",",
"because",
"his",
"old",
"state",
"sources",
"of",
"rye",
"and",
"potatoes",
"are",
"drying",
"up",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"no",
"feed",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"You",
"ca",
"n't",
"buy",
"anything",
"nowadays",
".",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"know",
"why",
".",
"''",
"Edward",
"Chojnowski",
"does",
".",
"His",
"truck",
"is",
"parked",
"across",
"the",
"field",
",",
"in",
"a",
"row",
"of",
"grain",
"sellers",
".",
"Like",
"the",
"others",
",",
"it",
"is",
"loaded",
"with",
"rye",
",",
"wheat",
"and",
"oats",
"in",
"sacks",
"labeled",
"``",
"Asbestos",
".",
"Made",
"in",
"U.S.S.R",
".",
"''",
"The",
"farmer",
"at",
"the",
"next",
"truck",
"shouts",
",",
"``",
"Wheat",
"!",
"It",
"'s",
"nice",
"!",
"It",
"wo",
"n't",
"be",
"cheaper",
"!",
"We",
"sell",
"direct",
"!",
"''",
"A",
"heavy",
",",
"kerchiefed",
"woman",
"runs",
"a",
"handful",
"through",
"her",
"fingers",
",",
"and",
"counts",
"him",
"out",
"a",
"pile",
"of",
"zlotys",
".",
"``",
"Country",
"people",
"breed",
"pigs",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Chojnowski",
",",
"leaning",
"against",
"the",
"back",
"of",
"his",
"truck",
".",
"``",
"They",
"ca",
"n't",
"buy",
"feed",
"from",
"the",
"state",
".",
"There",
"is",
"n't",
"enough",
".",
"Some",
"state",
"middlemen",
"come",
"to",
"buy",
"from",
"me",
".",
"I",
"sell",
"--",
"a",
"little",
".",
"I",
"am",
"waiting",
".",
"I",
"have",
"plenty",
"more",
"at",
"home",
".",
"''",
"On",
"this",
"morning",
",",
"he",
"does",
"n't",
"sell",
"much",
"in",
"Radzymin",
",",
"either",
".",
"At",
"closing",
"time",
",",
"farmers",
"cart",
"out",
"most",
"of",
"what",
"they",
"carted",
"in",
".",
"A",
"private",
"market",
"like",
"this",
"just",
"is",
"n't",
"big",
"enough",
"to",
"absorb",
"all",
"that",
"business",
".",
"The",
"hulk",
"of",
"Stalinism",
",",
"it",
"seems",
",",
"will",
"not",
"quickly",
"crumble",
"away",
".",
"State",
"monopolies",
"will",
"keep",
"on",
"stifling",
"trade",
",",
"``",
"free",
"''",
"prices",
"or",
"not",
",",
"until",
"something",
"else",
"replaces",
"them",
".",
"Polish",
"agriculture",
"will",
"need",
"a",
"whole",
"private",
"network",
"of",
"procurement",
",",
"processing",
"and",
"distribution",
"--",
"plus",
"a",
"new",
"manufacturing",
"industry",
"to",
"supply",
"it",
"with",
"tractors",
",",
"pesticides",
",",
"fertilizers",
"and",
"feed",
".",
"The",
"Communists",
"spent",
"40",
"years",
"working",
"to",
"ensure",
"that",
"no",
"such",
"capitalistic",
"structures",
"ever",
"arose",
"here",
".",
"Building",
"them",
"now",
"will",
"require",
"undergirding",
"from",
"the",
"West",
",",
"and",
"removal",
"of",
"political",
"deadwood",
",",
"a",
"job",
"that",
"Solidarity",
"has",
"barely",
"started",
".",
"But",
"Polish",
"agriculture",
"does",
"possess",
"one",
"great",
"asset",
"already",
":",
"the",
"private",
"farmer",
".",
"``",
"We",
"are",
"dealing",
"with",
"real",
"entrepreneurs",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Antoni",
"Leopold",
",",
"an",
"economist",
"who",
"advises",
"Rural",
"Solidarity",
",",
"the",
"union",
"'s",
"countryside",
"offshoot",
".",
"``",
"There",
"are",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"them",
",",
"and",
"they",
"have",
"property",
".",
"''",
"Polish",
"peasants",
",",
"spurning",
"the",
"collectivizers",
",",
"were",
"once",
"a",
"source",
"of",
"shame",
"to",
"orthodox",
"Communists",
".",
"Now",
",",
"among",
"Communist",
"reformers",
",",
"they",
"are",
"objects",
"of",
"envy",
".",
"Food",
"is",
"the",
"reformer",
"'s",
"top",
"priority",
",",
"the",
"key",
"to",
"popular",
"support",
".",
"As",
"the",
"Chinese",
"have",
"shown",
"and",
"the",
"Soviets",
"are",
"learning",
",",
"family",
"farms",
"thrive",
"where",
"collectives",
"fail",
".",
"Ownership",
",",
"it",
"seems",
",",
"is",
"the",
"best",
"fertilizer",
".",
"The",
"Poles",
"have",
"had",
"it",
"all",
"along",
".",
"Poland",
"'s",
"2.7",
"million",
"small",
"private",
"farms",
"cover",
"76",
"%",
"of",
"its",
"arable",
"land",
".",
"On",
"it",
",",
"a",
"quarter",
"of",
"the",
"country",
"'s",
"39",
"million",
"people",
"produce",
"three-quarters",
"of",
"its",
"grain",
",",
"beef",
",",
"eggs",
"and",
"milk",
",",
"and",
"nine-tenths",
"of",
"its",
"fruit",
",",
"vegetables",
"and",
"potatoes",
".",
"Like",
"the",
"Roman",
"Catholic",
"Church",
",",
"the",
"Polish",
"peasant",
"is",
"a",
"pillar",
"of",
"the",
"nation",
".",
"Try",
"as",
"they",
"might",
",",
"the",
"Communists",
"could",
"neither",
"replace",
"nor",
"break",
"him",
".",
"And",
"they",
"did",
"try",
".",
"A",
"few",
"miles",
"past",
"Radzymin",
",",
"a",
"dirt",
"road",
"narrows",
"to",
"a",
"track",
"of",
"sand",
"and",
"leads",
"into",
"Zalubice",
",",
"a",
"village",
"of",
"tumbledown",
"farms",
".",
"Czeslaw",
"Pyszkiewicz",
"owns",
"30",
"acres",
"in",
"14",
"scattered",
"scraps",
".",
"He",
"grows",
"rye",
"and",
"potatoes",
"for",
"a",
"few",
"hens",
",",
"five",
"cows",
"and",
"25",
"piglets",
".",
"In",
"patched",
"pants",
"and",
"torn",
"shoes",
",",
"he",
"stands",
"in",
"his",
"barnyard",
"eyeing",
"the",
"ground",
"with",
"a",
"look",
"both",
"helpless",
"and",
"sardonic",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"bad",
"soil",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"Until",
"1963",
",",
"it",
"was",
"good",
"soil",
".",
"Then",
"the",
"state",
"put",
"in",
"a",
"reservoir",
"to",
"supply",
"the",
"area",
"with",
"drinking",
"water",
".",
"Farmers",
"lay",
"down",
"before",
"the",
"bulldozers",
".",
"Their",
"protest",
"was",
"ignored",
".",
"The",
"dam",
"caused",
"the",
"water",
"level",
"to",
"drop",
"in",
"Zalubice",
".",
"Mr",
"Pyszkiewicz",
"smiles",
"and",
"his",
"brow",
"furrows",
".",
"He",
"expected",
"as",
"much",
".",
"In",
"his",
"lifetime",
",",
"47",
"years",
",",
"the",
"Communists",
"brought",
"electricity",
"to",
"his",
"village",
"and",
"piped",
"in",
"drinking",
"water",
"from",
"the",
"reservoir",
".",
"No",
"phones",
".",
"No",
"gas",
".",
"``",
"We",
"wanted",
"them",
"to",
"build",
"a",
"road",
"here",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"They",
"started",
",",
"and",
"then",
"abandoned",
"it",
".",
"''",
"A",
"tractor",
",",
"his",
"only",
"mechanized",
"equipment",
",",
"stands",
"in",
"front",
"of",
"the",
"pigsty",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"Russian",
".",
"Good",
"for",
"nothing",
".",
"Parts",
"are",
"a",
"tragedy",
".",
"Even",
"if",
"I",
"had",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"money",
",",
"I",
"could",
"n't",
"buy",
"what",
"I",
"need",
".",
"''",
"The",
"farmer",
"can",
"say",
"the",
"same",
"for",
"coal",
",",
"cement",
",",
"saw",
"blades",
".",
"In",
"Poland",
",",
"only",
"4",
"%",
"of",
"all",
"investment",
"goes",
"toward",
"making",
"things",
"farmers",
"want",
";",
"in",
"the",
"West",
",",
"it",
"is",
"closer",
"to",
"20",
"%",
".",
"The",
"few",
"big",
"state",
"farms",
"take",
"first",
"crack",
"at",
"what",
"does",
"get",
"made",
".",
"They",
"use",
"60",
"%",
"more",
"fertilizer",
"per",
"acre",
",",
"twice",
"the",
"high-grade",
"feed",
".",
"Yet",
"their",
"best",
"boast",
"is",
"that",
"they",
"produce",
"32",
"%",
"of",
"Polish",
"pork",
".",
"``",
"I",
"'ve",
"heard",
"from",
"friends",
"that",
"state",
"farms",
"are",
"subsidized",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Pyszkiewicz",
"says",
"as",
"his",
"wife",
",",
"Wieslawa",
",",
"sets",
"some",
"chairs",
"out",
"in",
"the",
"sun",
".",
"``",
"We",
"have",
"one",
"near",
"here",
".",
"There",
"is",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"waste",
".",
"A",
"private",
"farmer",
"never",
"wastes",
"anything",
".",
"''",
"The",
"state",
"quit",
"shoving",
"peasants",
"onto",
"its",
"subsidized",
"farms",
"over",
"30",
"years",
"ago",
".",
"But",
"it",
"never",
"did",
"let",
"up",
"on",
"the",
"pressure",
".",
"Until",
"recently",
",",
"a",
"farmer",
"with",
"no",
"heir",
"had",
"to",
"will",
"the",
"state",
"his",
"land",
"to",
"collect",
"his",
"pension",
".",
"The",
"pension",
"'s",
"size",
"still",
"depends",
"on",
"how",
"much",
"produce",
"he",
"sells",
"the",
"state",
".",
"His",
"allotment",
"of",
"materials",
"also",
"did",
",",
"until",
"the",
"state",
"could",
"n't",
"hold",
"up",
"its",
"end",
"of",
"that",
"bargain",
".",
"Yet",
"the",
"state",
"alone",
"sells",
"seeds",
"and",
"machines",
".",
"When",
"supplies",
"are",
"short",
",",
"it",
"often",
"hands",
"them",
"over",
"only",
"in",
"exchange",
"for",
"milk",
"or",
"grain",
".",
"A",
"private",
"farmer",
"in",
"Poland",
"is",
"free",
"to",
"buy",
"and",
"sell",
"land",
",",
"hire",
"help",
",",
"decide",
"what",
"to",
"grow",
"and",
"how",
"to",
"grow",
"it",
".",
"He",
"is",
"free",
"to",
"invest",
"in",
"chickens",
",",
"and",
"to",
"fail",
"for",
"lack",
"of",
"chicken",
"wire",
".",
"He",
"has",
"plenty",
"of",
"freedom",
"--",
"but",
"no",
"choices",
".",
"``",
"I",
"'m",
"on",
"my",
"own",
"land",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Pyszkiewicz",
"says",
".",
"``",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"have",
"to",
"listen",
"to",
"what",
"anybody",
"tells",
"me",
"to",
"do",
".",
"''",
"``",
"Sometimes",
",",
"''",
"says",
"his",
"wife",
",",
"``",
"we",
"'re",
"happy",
"about",
"that",
".",
"''",
"By",
"starving",
"the",
"peasant",
",",
"the",
"Communists",
"have",
"starved",
"Poland",
".",
"Villages",
"like",
"Zalubice",
"exist",
"in",
"a",
"desert",
"of",
"poor",
"schools",
"and",
"few",
"doctors",
".",
"Farm",
"income",
"is",
"15",
"%",
"below",
"the",
"average",
".",
"The",
"young",
"leave",
",",
"especially",
"girls",
"who",
"wo",
"n't",
"milk",
"cows",
"by",
"hand",
".",
"Some",
"men",
"stay",
",",
"their",
"best",
"friend",
"a",
"bottle",
"of",
"vodka",
",",
"but",
"two",
"million",
"acres",
"have",
"gone",
"fallow",
".",
"Without",
"machines",
",",
"good",
"farms",
"ca",
"n't",
"get",
"bigger",
".",
"So",
"the",
"potato",
"crop",
",",
"once",
"47",
"million",
"tons",
",",
"is",
"down",
"to",
"35",
"million",
".",
"Meat",
"consumption",
"is",
"at",
"1979",
"'s",
"level",
",",
"pork",
"production",
"at",
"1973",
"'s",
",",
"milk",
"output",
"at",
"1960",
"'s",
".",
"If",
"a",
"food",
"crisis",
"undid",
"the",
"Communists",
",",
"a",
"food",
"revolution",
"will",
"make",
"Solidarity",
".",
"The",
"potential",
"is",
"displayed",
"along",
"every",
"road",
"into",
"Warsaw",
":",
"row",
"upon",
"row",
"of",
"greenhouses",
",",
"stretching",
"out",
"behind",
"modern",
"mansions",
"that",
"trumpet",
"their",
"owners",
"'",
"wealth",
".",
"Vegetables",
"are",
"abundant",
"and",
"full",
"of",
"flavor",
"in",
"Poland",
",",
"the",
"pickles",
"and",
"sauerkraut",
"sublime",
",",
"the",
"state",
"monopolies",
"long",
"broken",
".",
"Grain",
",",
"milk",
"and",
"meat",
"come",
"next",
".",
"A",
"private",
"challenge",
"to",
"the",
"monolithic",
"tractor",
"industry",
"will",
"take",
"more",
"time",
"and",
"money",
"than",
"Poland",
"can",
"spare",
",",
"although",
"a",
"smokehouse",
"or",
"a",
"local",
"dairy",
"can",
"spring",
"up",
"fast",
".",
"Poland",
"makes",
"no",
"machinery",
"for",
"a",
"plant",
"on",
"that",
"scale",
".",
"Solidarity",
"wants",
"it",
"from",
"the",
"West",
".",
"Maria",
"Stolzman",
",",
"one",
"of",
"its",
"farm",
"experts",
",",
"lays",
"it",
"on",
"the",
"line",
":",
"``",
"The",
"World",
"Bank",
"will",
"be",
"brought",
"in",
"to",
"help",
"us",
"destroy",
"the",
"old",
"system",
".",
"''",
"Felix",
"Siemienas",
"is",
"destroying",
"it",
"now",
".",
"He",
"packs",
"pork",
".",
"A",
"law",
"went",
"on",
"the",
"books",
"in",
"January",
"that",
"let",
"him",
"smoke",
"bacon",
"without",
"breeding",
"pigs",
".",
"He",
"cashed",
"in",
".",
"Poland",
"is",
"short",
"on",
"enterprises",
",",
"not",
"enterprise",
".",
"``",
"I",
"pay",
"a",
"lot",
"to",
"the",
"farmer",
"and",
"five",
"times",
"the",
"state",
"salary",
"to",
"my",
"employees",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"He",
"is",
"in",
"Warsaw",
"to",
"open",
"a",
"shop",
".",
"``",
"I",
"hire",
"transportation",
",",
"and",
"my",
"customers",
"have",
"fresh",
"cold",
"cuts",
"every",
"day",
".",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"subsidize",
"anyone",
".",
"Everyone",
"around",
"me",
"lives",
"well",
".",
"Yes",
",",
"my",
"prices",
"are",
"high",
".",
"If",
"nobody",
"buys",
",",
"I",
"bring",
"my",
"prices",
"down",
".",
"That",
"'s",
"the",
"rule",
".",
"That",
"'s",
"the",
"market",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Siemienas",
"is",
"making",
"a",
"fortune",
"--",
"$",
"10,000",
"a",
"month",
",",
"he",
"says",
".",
"He",
"has",
"bought",
"some",
"trendy",
"Western",
"clothes",
",",
"and",
"a",
"green",
"Mercedes",
"with",
"an",
"American",
"flag",
"in",
"the",
"window",
".",
"But",
"the",
"meat-processing",
"machines",
"he",
"picked",
"up",
"are",
"50",
"years",
"old",
".",
"``",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"want",
"expensive",
"machines",
".",
"If",
"the",
"situation",
"changes",
",",
"I",
"'ll",
"get",
"stuck",
"with",
"them",
".",
"''",
"That",
"'s",
"politics",
".",
"By",
"taking",
"power",
"in",
"a",
"deal",
"with",
"the",
"Peasant",
"Party",
"'s",
"onetime",
"Communist",
"stooges",
",",
"Solidarity",
"has",
"spooked",
"the",
"rural",
"entrepreneur",
".",
"Rural",
"Solidarity",
"objected",
",",
"to",
"no",
"avail",
",",
"when",
"Solidarity",
"leader",
"Lech",
"Walesa",
"accepted",
"the",
"Peasants",
"'",
"support",
".",
"It",
"objected",
"again",
"in",
"September",
"when",
"Prime",
"Minister",
"Tadeusz",
"Mazowiecki",
"reluctantly",
"named",
"a",
"Peasant",
"Party",
"man",
"as",
"his",
"agriculture",
"minister",
".",
"Both",
"the",
"Peasants",
"and",
"Rural",
"Solidarity",
"are",
"forming",
"new",
"political",
"parties",
"for",
"farmers",
".",
"The",
"Peasants",
"can",
"make",
"a",
"credible",
"case",
",",
"against",
"Solidarity",
",",
"that",
"hell-bent",
"reform",
"will",
"drive",
"millions",
"from",
"the",
"land",
".",
"Next",
"Spring",
",",
"the",
"two",
"will",
"battle",
"in",
"local",
"elections",
".",
"But",
"until",
"then",
",",
"and",
"probably",
"long",
"afterward",
",",
"the",
"Communists",
"'",
"apparat",
"of",
"obstruction",
"--",
"from",
"the",
"head",
"of",
"the",
"dairy",
"co-op",
"to",
"the",
"village",
"bank",
"manager",
"--",
"will",
"stay",
"planted",
"in",
"the",
"Polish",
"countryside",
".",
"``",
"We",
"know",
"how",
"to",
"get",
"from",
"capitalism",
"to",
"socialism",
",",
"''",
"Sergiusz",
"Niciporuk",
"is",
"saying",
"one",
"afternoon",
".",
"``",
"We",
"do",
"n't",
"know",
"how",
"to",
"get",
"from",
"socialism",
"to",
"capitalism",
".",
"''",
"He",
"farms",
"12",
"acres",
"in",
"Grabowiec",
",",
"two",
"miles",
"from",
"the",
"Soviet",
"border",
"in",
"one",
"of",
"Poland",
"'s",
"poorest",
"places",
".",
"Now",
"he",
"is",
"mounting",
"the",
"steps",
"of",
"a",
"stucco",
"building",
"in",
"a",
"nearby",
"village",
",",
"on",
"a",
"visit",
"to",
"the",
"Communist",
"administrator",
",",
"the",
"``",
"naczelnik",
".",
"''",
"``",
"Many",
"people",
"in",
"Poland",
"hope",
"this",
"government",
"will",
"break",
"down",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Niciporuk",
",",
"who",
"belongs",
"to",
"the",
"local",
"council",
"and",
"to",
"Rural",
"Solidarity",
".",
"``",
"That",
"'s",
"what",
"the",
"naczelnik",
"counts",
"on",
".",
"He",
"is",
"our",
"most",
"dangerous",
"enemy",
".",
"Every",
"time",
"he",
"sees",
"me",
",",
"he",
"gets",
"very",
"nervous",
".",
"''",
"The",
"farmer",
"barges",
"into",
"the",
"naczelnik",
"'s",
"office",
".",
"A",
"thin",
"man",
"in",
"a",
"gray",
"suit",
"looks",
"up",
"from",
"a",
"newspaper",
".",
"Mr.",
"Niciporuk",
"sits",
".",
"Anatol",
"Pawlowski",
"'s",
"leg",
"begins",
"jiggling",
"beneath",
"his",
"desk",
".",
"``",
"Solidarity",
"does",
"n't",
"care",
"for",
"the",
"good",
"of",
"this",
"region",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
"after",
"a",
"few",
"pleasantries",
".",
"``",
"They",
"want",
"to",
"turn",
"everything",
"upside",
"down",
"in",
"a",
"week",
".",
"Mr.",
"Niciporuk",
"here",
"wants",
"60",
"acres",
"used",
"at",
"the",
"moment",
"by",
"a",
"state",
"farm",
".",
"He",
"ca",
"n't",
"guarantee",
"that",
"he",
"can",
"use",
"it",
"any",
"better",
".",
"''",
"``",
"I",
"am",
"ready",
"at",
"any",
"moment",
"to",
"compete",
"with",
"a",
"state",
"farm",
".",
"''",
"The",
"naczelnik",
"averts",
"his",
"eyes",
".",
"``",
"What",
"have",
"you",
"got",
"?",
"Not",
"even",
"a",
"tractor",
".",
"And",
"you",
"want",
"to",
"make",
"wicker",
"baskets",
",",
"too",
".",
"''",
"``",
"I",
"can",
"do",
"five",
"things",
"at",
"once",
"--",
"to",
"be",
"a",
"businessman",
".",
"''",
"``",
"Big",
"business",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Pawlowski",
"snorts",
"in",
"English",
".",
"The",
"farmer",
"stands",
"to",
"go",
".",
"The",
"naczelnik",
"stands",
",",
"too",
".",
"``",
"I",
"care",
"very",
"much",
"for",
"this",
"post",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"Eight",
"years",
"I",
"'ve",
"had",
"it",
".",
"A",
"cultural",
"center",
"has",
"been",
"built",
",",
"shops",
".",
"Suddenly",
",",
"I",
"am",
"not",
"a",
"comfortable",
"man",
"for",
"Solidarity",
".",
"I",
"have",
"accomplished",
"too",
"much",
".",
"They",
"want",
"to",
"do",
"more",
".",
"I",
"wish",
"them",
"all",
"the",
"best",
"!",
"''",
"The",
"farmer",
"leaves",
".",
"And",
"the",
"naczelnik",
"shuts",
"his",
"door",
"."
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"many",
"youngsters",
"have",
"been",
"unable",
"to",
"obtain",
"the",
"drug",
"and",
",",
"for",
"the",
"few",
"exceptions",
",",
"insurance",
"carriers",
"wo",
"n't",
"cover",
"its",
"cost",
"of",
"$",
"6,400",
"a",
"year",
".",
"So",
"far",
",",
"AIDS",
"has",
"stricken",
"1,859",
"children",
"under",
"age",
"13",
",",
"with",
"many",
"times",
"that",
"number",
"believed",
"to",
"carry",
"the",
"infection",
"without",
"symptoms",
".",
"To",
"date",
",",
"1,013",
"of",
"those",
"children",
"have",
"died",
",",
"according",
"to",
"the",
"federal",
"Centers",
"for",
"Disease",
"Control",
".",
"Mothers",
"of",
"young",
"AIDS",
"patients",
"expressed",
"somber",
"satisfaction",
".",
"``",
"Thank",
"goodness",
"it",
"'s",
"happening",
".",
"It",
"should",
"have",
"happened",
"sooner",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Elizabeth",
"Glaser",
",",
"a",
"Los",
"Angeles",
"mother",
"and",
"activist",
"who",
"contracted",
"the",
"AIDS",
"virus",
"through",
"a",
"blood",
"transfusion",
",",
"and",
"transmitted",
"it",
"to",
"two",
"of",
"her",
"children",
".",
"One",
"of",
"them",
",",
"a",
"daughter",
"Ariel",
",",
"died",
"a",
"year",
"ago",
"at",
"age",
"seven",
"after",
"her",
"parents",
"unsuccessfully",
"pleaded",
"for",
"the",
"drug",
".",
"``",
"I",
"could",
"get",
"AZT",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mrs.",
"Glaser",
",",
"who",
"bears",
"her",
"infection",
"without",
"any",
"symptoms",
".",
"``",
"But",
"my",
"daughter",
"could",
"n't",
",",
"until",
"she",
"was",
"too",
"ill",
"to",
"take",
"it",
".",
"To",
"watch",
"your",
"child",
"die",
"is",
"an",
"inhuman",
"experience",
".",
"''",
"Her",
"son",
",",
"healthy",
"and",
"symptom-free",
",",
"currently",
"takes",
"no",
"medication",
".",
"The",
"delay",
"in",
"getting",
"AZT",
"to",
"children",
"has",
"been",
"blamed",
"on",
"a",
"combination",
"of",
"factors",
".",
"Traditionally",
",",
"the",
"medical",
"establishment",
"has",
"waited",
"two",
"years",
"to",
"approve",
"adult",
"treatments",
"for",
"pediatric",
"uses",
",",
"because",
"of",
"a",
"combination",
"of",
"conservative",
"safety",
"standards",
"and",
"red",
"tape",
".",
"Secondly",
",",
"critics",
"have",
"charged",
"AZT",
"'s",
"maker",
"Burroughs",
"Wellcome",
"Co.",
"with",
"corporate",
"inertia",
"because",
"children",
"account",
"for",
"just",
"1",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"patient",
"population",
"and",
"hence",
"a",
"small",
"part",
"of",
"the",
"large",
"and",
"lucrative",
"market",
".",
"Wellcome",
"has",
"replied",
"that",
"it",
"is",
"moving",
"ahead",
"to",
"compile",
"the",
"relevant",
"data",
",",
"and",
"recently",
"promised",
"to",
"develop",
"a",
"pediatric",
"syrup",
"form",
"easier",
"for",
"youngsters",
"to",
"take",
".",
"Still",
",",
"all",
"this",
"comes",
"nearly",
"a",
"year",
"and",
"a",
"half",
"after",
"Philip",
"Pizzo",
"of",
"the",
"National",
"Cancer",
"Institute",
"offered",
"evidence",
"that",
"AZT",
"could",
"reverse",
"the",
"ravages",
"of",
"AIDS",
"dementia",
",",
"sometimes",
"prompting",
"dramatic",
"recovery",
"of",
"IQ",
"levels",
"and",
"reappearance",
"of",
"lost",
"motor",
"skills",
".",
"Since",
"then",
",",
"roughly",
"50",
"pediatric",
"patients",
"have",
"received",
"the",
"drug",
"in",
"his",
"program",
".",
"To",
"some",
"mothers",
",",
"the",
"expected",
"FDA",
"action",
"is",
"a",
"poignant",
"reminder",
"of",
"what",
"might",
"have",
"been",
".",
"``",
"My",
"first",
"reaction",
"is",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"understand",
"why",
"it",
"'s",
"taken",
"so",
"long",
".",
"Why",
"has",
"it",
"taken",
"people",
"so",
"long",
"for",
"people",
"to",
"understand",
"pediatric",
"AIDS",
"is",
"a",
"major",
"problem",
"?",
"''",
"asked",
"Helen",
"Kushnick",
",",
"whose",
"son",
"Samuel",
"died",
"six",
"years",
"ago",
"at",
"age",
"three",
",",
"victim",
"of",
"a",
"tainted",
"transfusion",
".",
"Similar",
"sentiments",
"were",
"voiced",
"on",
"Capitol",
"Hill",
".",
"``",
"While",
"I",
"'m",
"pleased",
"the",
"FDA",
"is",
"finally",
"releasing",
"AZT",
"for",
"children",
",",
"it",
"'s",
"taken",
"much",
"too",
"long",
"to",
"get",
"to",
"this",
"point",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Rep.",
"Ted",
"Weiss",
".",
"``",
"Why",
"did",
"it",
"take",
"Burroughs",
"Wellcome",
"so",
"long",
"to",
"apply",
"''",
"for",
"treatment",
"investigational",
"new",
"drug",
"status",
"?",
"the",
"New",
"York",
"Democrat",
"asked",
".",
"``",
"Let",
"'s",
"not",
"forget",
"this",
"is",
"the",
"same",
"company",
"that",
"has",
"been",
"profiteering",
"with",
"this",
"drug",
"for",
"2",
"1/2",
"years",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Weiss",
"added",
".",
"Mrs.",
"Glaser",
",",
"who",
"is",
"a",
"co-founder",
"of",
"the",
"Pediatric",
"AIDS",
"Foundation",
",",
"based",
"in",
"Santa",
"Monica",
",",
"Calif.",
",",
"condemned",
"neither",
"bureaucratic",
"nor",
"corporate",
"foot-dragging",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"no",
"finger",
"to",
"be",
"pointed",
",",
"''",
"she",
"said",
".",
"``",
"The",
"crucial",
"thing",
"is",
"that",
"we",
"learn",
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"well",
",",
"and",
"to",
"make",
"sure",
"other",
"experimental",
"drugs",
",",
"like",
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"Co.",
"'s",
"DDI",
",",
"do",
"n't",
"follow",
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"same",
"frustrating",
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"as",
"AZT",
".",
"''",
"AIDS",
"dementia",
"--",
"which",
"gradually",
"steals",
"children",
"'s",
"ability",
"to",
"speak",
",",
"walk",
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"think",
"--",
"is",
"often",
"the",
"most",
"striking",
"aspect",
"of",
"the",
"pediatric",
"syndrome",
".",
"For",
"some",
"patients",
",",
"AZT",
"has",
"restored",
"the",
"ability",
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"ride",
"a",
"bicycle",
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"solve",
"puzzles",
",",
"giving",
"back",
"a",
"piece",
"of",
"their",
"childhood",
"if",
"only",
"temporarily",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"impossible",
"to",
"overstate",
"how",
"much",
"this",
"means",
"to",
"the",
"families",
"of",
"these",
"patients",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Samuel",
"Broder",
",",
"director",
"of",
"the",
"National",
"Cancer",
"Institute",
"and",
"a",
"main",
"developer",
"of",
"AZT",
"."
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[
"For",
"Cathay",
"Pacific",
"Airways",
",",
"the",
"smooth",
"ride",
"may",
"be",
"ending",
".",
"The",
"first",
"signs",
"of",
"trouble",
"came",
"last",
"month",
"when",
"the",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"carrier",
",",
"a",
"subsidiary",
"of",
"Swire",
"Pacific",
"Ltd.",
",",
"posted",
"a",
"5",
"%",
"drop",
"in",
"operating",
"profit",
"for",
"the",
"first",
"six",
"months",
"and",
"warned",
"that",
"margins",
"will",
"remain",
"under",
"pressure",
"for",
"the",
"rest",
"of",
"the",
"year",
".",
"Securities",
"analysts",
",",
"many",
"of",
"whom",
"scrapped",
"their",
"buy",
"recommendations",
"after",
"seeing",
"Cathay",
"'s",
"interim",
"figures",
",",
"believe",
"more",
"jolts",
"lie",
"ahead",
".",
"Fuel",
"and",
"personnel",
"costs",
"are",
"rising",
",",
"and",
"tourism",
"in",
"and",
"through",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"remains",
"clouded",
"by",
"China",
"'s",
"turmoil",
"since",
"the",
"June",
"4",
"killings",
"in",
"Beijing",
".",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"delivery",
"delays",
"for",
"the",
"first",
"two",
"of",
"as",
"many",
"as",
"28",
"Boeing",
"747-400s",
"that",
"the",
"carrier",
"has",
"ordered",
"have",
"raised",
"costs",
"because",
"personnel",
"had",
"been",
"hired",
"to",
"man",
"the",
"planes",
".",
"And",
"tough",
"competition",
"in",
"the",
"air-freight",
"market",
"is",
"cutting",
"into",
"an",
"important",
"sideline",
".",
"There",
"also",
"is",
"concern",
"that",
"once",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"reverts",
"to",
"China",
"'s",
"sovereignty",
"in",
"1997",
",",
"Cathay",
"will",
"be",
"forced",
"to",
"play",
"second",
"fiddle",
"to",
"China",
"'s",
"often-disparaged",
"flag",
"carrier",
",",
"Civil",
"Aviation",
"Administration",
"of",
"China",
",",
"or",
"CAAC",
".",
"``",
"The",
"sense",
"is",
"we",
"would",
"never",
"be",
"in",
"a",
"position",
"again",
"where",
"everything",
"works",
"for",
"us",
"the",
"way",
"it",
"did",
"before",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Rod",
"Eddington",
",",
"Cathay",
"'s",
"commercial",
"director",
".",
"Sarah",
"Hall",
",",
"an",
"analyst",
"at",
"James",
"Capel",
"(",
"Far",
"East",
")",
"Ltd.",
",",
"says",
"there",
"is",
"n't",
"much",
"Cathay",
"can",
"do",
"about",
"rising",
"costs",
"for",
"jet",
"fuel",
",",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"'s",
"tight",
"labor",
"market",
",",
"or",
"the",
"strengthening",
"of",
"the",
"local",
"currency",
",",
"which",
"is",
"pegged",
"to",
"the",
"U.S.",
"dollar",
".",
"These",
"factors",
"are",
"further",
"complicated",
"by",
"the",
"airline",
"'s",
"push",
"to",
"transform",
"itself",
"from",
"a",
"regional",
"carrier",
"to",
"an",
"international",
"one",
",",
"Ms.",
"Hall",
"says",
".",
"Ms.",
"Hall",
"expects",
"Cathay",
"'s",
"profit",
"to",
"grow",
"around",
"13",
"%",
"annually",
"this",
"year",
"and",
"next",
".",
"In",
"1988",
",",
"it",
"earned",
"$",
"2.82",
"billion",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"(",
"US$",
"361.5",
"million",
")",
"on",
"revenue",
"of",
"HK$",
"11.79",
"billion",
".",
"Cathay",
"is",
"taking",
"several",
"steps",
"to",
"bolster",
"business",
".",
"One",
"step",
"is",
"to",
"beef",
"up",
"its",
"fleet",
".",
"In",
"addition",
"to",
"aircraft",
"from",
"Boeing",
"Co.",
",",
"Cathay",
"announced",
"earlier",
"this",
"year",
"an",
"order",
"for",
"as",
"many",
"as",
"20",
"Airbus",
"A330-300s",
".",
"The",
"expansion",
",",
"which",
"could",
"cost",
"as",
"much",
"as",
"US$",
"5.7",
"billion",
"over",
"the",
"next",
"eight",
"years",
",",
"will",
"expand",
"the",
"fleet",
"to",
"about",
"43",
"planes",
"by",
"1991",
",",
"up",
"from",
"30",
"at",
"the",
"end",
"of",
"last",
"year",
",",
"according",
"to",
"Sun",
"Hung",
"Kai",
"Securities",
"Ltd",
".",
"The",
"fuel-efficient",
"Airbus",
"planes",
"will",
"be",
"used",
"largely",
"to",
"replace",
"Cathay",
"'s",
"aging",
"fleet",
"of",
"Lockheed",
"Tristars",
"for",
"regional",
"flights",
",",
"while",
"the",
"Boeing",
"aircraft",
"will",
"be",
"used",
"on",
"long-haul",
"routes",
"to",
"Europe",
"and",
"North",
"America",
".",
"Cathay",
"also",
"is",
"moving",
"some",
"of",
"its",
"labor-intensive",
"data-processing",
"operations",
"outside",
"Hong",
"Kong",
".",
"Fierce",
"bidding",
"for",
"young",
"employees",
"in",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"is",
"pushing",
"up",
"Cathay",
"'s",
"labor",
"costs",
"by",
"20",
"%",
"a",
"year",
"for",
"low-level",
"staff",
",",
"while",
"experienced",
",",
"skilled",
"employees",
"are",
"leaving",
"the",
"colony",
"as",
"part",
"of",
"the",
"brain",
"drain",
".",
"Some",
"jobs",
"already",
"have",
"been",
"moved",
"to",
"Australia",
",",
"and",
"there",
"are",
"plans",
"to",
"place",
"others",
"in",
"Canada",
".",
"David",
"Bell",
",",
"a",
"spokesman",
"for",
"the",
"airline",
",",
"says",
"the",
"move",
"is",
"partly",
"aimed",
"at",
"retaining",
"existing",
"staff",
"who",
"are",
"leaving",
"to",
"secure",
"foreign",
"passports",
"ahead",
"of",
"1997",
".",
"Cathay",
"is",
"working",
"to",
"promote",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"as",
"a",
"destination",
"worth",
"visiting",
"on",
"its",
"own",
"merits",
",",
"rather",
"than",
"just",
"a",
"stopover",
".",
"Although",
"the",
"June",
"4",
"killings",
"in",
"Beijing",
"have",
"hurt",
"its",
"China",
"flights",
",",
"Cathay",
"'s",
"other",
"routes",
"have",
"retained",
"high",
"load",
"factors",
".",
"Mr.",
"Eddington",
"regards",
"promoting",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"as",
"an",
"important",
"part",
"of",
"attracting",
"visitors",
"from",
"Japan",
",",
"South",
"Korea",
"and",
"Taiwan",
",",
"where",
"the",
"number",
"of",
"people",
"looking",
"to",
"travel",
"abroad",
"has",
"surged",
".",
"There",
"also",
"has",
"been",
"speculation",
"that",
"Cathay",
"will",
"be",
"among",
"the",
"major",
"private-sector",
"participants",
"in",
"the",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"government",
"'s",
"plans",
"to",
"build",
"a",
"new",
"airport",
",",
"with",
"the",
"carrier",
"possibly",
"investing",
"in",
"its",
"own",
"terminal",
".",
"Cathay",
"officials",
"decline",
"to",
"comment",
"on",
"the",
"speculation",
".",
"Mr.",
"Eddington",
"sees",
"alliances",
"with",
"other",
"carriers",
"--",
"particularly",
"Cathay",
"'s",
"recent",
"link",
"with",
"AMR",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"American",
"Airlines",
"--",
"as",
"an",
"important",
"part",
"of",
"Cathay",
"'s",
"strategy",
".",
"But",
"he",
"emphasizes",
"that",
"Cathay",
"has",
"n't",
"any",
"interest",
"in",
"swapping",
"equity",
"stakes",
"with",
"the",
"U.S.",
"carrier",
"or",
"with",
"Lufthansa",
",",
"the",
"West",
"German",
"airline",
"with",
"which",
"it",
"has",
"cooperated",
"for",
"about",
"a",
"decade",
".",
"Analysts",
"believe",
"Cathay",
"is",
"approached",
"for",
"such",
"swaps",
"by",
"other",
"carriers",
"on",
"a",
"regular",
"basis",
",",
"particularly",
"as",
"the",
"popularity",
"of",
"share",
"exchanges",
"has",
"grown",
"among",
"European",
"carriers",
".",
"``",
"We",
"think",
"alliances",
"are",
"very",
"important",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Eddington",
"says",
".",
"``",
"But",
"we",
"'d",
"rather",
"put",
"funds",
"into",
"our",
"own",
"business",
"rather",
"than",
"someone",
"else",
"'s",
".",
"I",
"'m",
"not",
"sure",
"cross-ownership",
"would",
"necessarily",
"make",
"things",
"smoother",
".",
"''",
"In",
"a",
"pattern",
"it",
"aims",
"to",
"copy",
"in",
"several",
"key",
"U.S.",
"destinations",
",",
"Cathay",
"recently",
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"plans",
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"serve",
"San",
"Francisco",
"by",
"flying",
"into",
"American",
"Airlines",
"'",
"Los",
"Angeles",
"hub",
"and",
"routing",
"continuing",
"passengers",
"onto",
"a",
"flight",
"on",
"the",
"U.S.",
"carrier",
".",
"``",
"We",
"'ll",
"never",
"have",
"a",
"big",
"operation",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
",",
"and",
"they",
"'ll",
"never",
"have",
"one",
"as",
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"as",
"us",
"in",
"the",
"Pacific",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Eddington",
"says",
".",
"``",
"But",
"this",
"way",
",",
"American",
"will",
"coordinate",
"good",
"extensions",
"to",
"Boston",
",",
"New",
"York",
",",
"Chicago",
"and",
"Dallas",
".",
"We",
"'ll",
"coordinate",
"on",
"this",
"end",
"to",
"places",
"like",
"Bangkok",
",",
"Singapore",
"and",
"Manila",
".",
"''",
"Asian",
"traffic",
",",
"which",
"currently",
"accounts",
"for",
"65",
"%",
"of",
"Cathay",
"'s",
"business",
",",
"is",
"expected",
"to",
"continue",
"as",
"the",
"carrier",
"'s",
"mainstay",
".",
"Cathay",
"has",
"long",
"stated",
"its",
"desire",
"to",
"double",
"its",
"weekly",
"flights",
"into",
"China",
"to",
"14",
",",
"and",
"it",
"is",
"applying",
"to",
"restart",
"long-canceled",
"flights",
"into",
"Vietnam",
".",
"Further",
"expansion",
"into",
"southern",
"Europe",
"is",
"also",
"possible",
",",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Bell",
",",
"the",
"spokesman",
".",
"While",
"a",
"large",
"number",
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"Hong",
"Kong",
"companies",
"have",
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"offshore",
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"1997",
",",
"such",
"a",
"move",
"is",
"n't",
"an",
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"Cathay",
"because",
"it",
"would",
"jeopardize",
"its",
"landing",
"rights",
"in",
"Hong",
"Kong",
".",
"And",
"Mr.",
"Eddington",
"emphatically",
"rules",
"out",
"a",
"move",
"to",
"London",
":",
"``",
"Our",
"lifeblood",
"is",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"traffic",
"rights",
".",
"''",
"He",
"says",
"the",
"airline",
"is",
"putting",
"its",
"faith",
"in",
"the",
"Sino-British",
"agreement",
"on",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"'s",
"return",
"to",
"China",
".",
"A",
"special",
"section",
"dealing",
"with",
"aviation",
"rights",
"states",
"that",
"landing",
"rights",
"for",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"'s",
"airlines",
",",
"which",
"include",
"the",
"smaller",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"Dragon",
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",",
"will",
"continue",
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"negotiated",
"by",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"'s",
"government",
".",
"But",
"critics",
"fret",
"that",
"post-1997",
"officials",
"ultimately",
"will",
"be",
"responsible",
"to",
"Beijing",
".",
"``",
"My",
"feeling",
"is",
"-LCB-",
"Cathay",
"does",
"n't",
"-RCB-",
"have",
"a",
"hope",
"in",
"the",
"long",
"run",
",",
"''",
"says",
"an",
"analyst",
",",
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"be",
"identified",
".",
"``",
"Cathay",
"would",
"love",
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"going",
",",
"but",
"the",
"general",
"sense",
"is",
"they",
"'re",
"going",
"to",
"have",
"to",
"do",
"something",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Eddington",
"acknowledges",
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"the",
"carrier",
"will",
"have",
"to",
"evolve",
"and",
"adapt",
"to",
"local",
"changes",
",",
"but",
"he",
"feels",
"that",
"the",
"Sino-British",
"agreement",
"is",
"firm",
"ground",
"to",
"build",
"on",
"for",
"the",
"foreseeable",
"future",
".",
"``",
"We",
"'re",
"confident",
"that",
"it",
"protects",
"our",
"route",
"structure",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
",",
"``",
"and",
"our",
"ability",
"to",
"grow",
"and",
"prosper",
"."
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[
"Some",
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",",
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",",
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"U.S.",
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",",
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".",
"``",
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",",
"''",
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"elimination",
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",",
"not",
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"EC",
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"calls",
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"the",
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"support",
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"protection",
".",
"''",
"U.S.",
"Deputy",
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"Jules",
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"food-importing",
"developing",
"countries",
",",
"who",
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"the",
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"that",
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"nations",
"would",
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"the",
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"are",
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".",
"Ambassador",
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"U.S.",
"was",
"open",
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"discussing",
"particular",
"problems",
"of",
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"countries",
".",
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"said",
"its",
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"allow",
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"and",
"when",
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".",
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"would",
"ease",
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"freer",
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"trade",
"by",
"converting",
"certain",
"non-tariff",
"barriers",
"into",
"tariffs",
"that",
",",
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"existing",
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",",
"then",
"would",
"be",
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"10",
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".",
"But",
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"EC",
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"opposed",
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"converting",
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"supports",
"into",
"tariffs",
".",
"The",
"new",
"U.S.",
"package",
"also",
"says",
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"could",
"temporarily",
"raise",
"tariffs",
"on",
"certain",
"products",
"if",
"they",
"experience",
"an",
"unusually",
"heavy",
"volume",
"of",
"imports",
".",
"It",
"would",
"establish",
"procedures",
"to",
"prevent",
"countries",
"from",
"using",
"health",
"and",
"sanitation",
"rules",
"to",
"impede",
"trade",
"arbitrarily",
".",
"Seeking",
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"allay",
"European",
"concerns",
",",
"U.S.",
"Agriculture",
"Secretary",
"Clayton",
"Yeutter",
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"U.S.",
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"put",
"farmers",
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"business",
"''",
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"grow",
"what",
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"desire",
"instead",
"of",
"what",
"the",
"government",
"wants",
".",
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",",
"has",
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",",
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"about",
"245",
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",",
"has",
"only",
"two",
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".",
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"its",
"desire",
"to",
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"self-sufficient",
"in",
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"a",
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",",
"even",
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"far",
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[
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",",
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",",
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"1988",
".",
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",",
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[
"Hydro-Quebec",
"said",
"it",
"notified",
"Central",
"Maine",
"Power",
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"it",
"will",
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"a",
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"4",
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"electricity",
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"the",
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".",
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"it",
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"to",
"other",
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".",
"``",
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",",
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".",
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"Maine",
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"starting",
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",",
"600",
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"starting",
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"1995",
"and",
"900",
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"said",
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"regulators",
"'",
"refusal",
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"the",
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"means",
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"Maine",
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"has",
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",",
"''",
"the",
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"already",
"has",
"some",
"``",
"customers",
"in",
"mind",
"''",
"for",
"the",
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"was",
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"Maine",
".",
"``",
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"most",
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"'",
"energy",
"needs",
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"2020",
",",
"''",
"said",
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"vice",
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"Kelly",
".",
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"up",
"for",
"the",
"lost",
"future",
"power",
",",
"including",
"new",
"energy",
"generation",
"and",
"management",
"proposals",
"from",
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"England",
",",
"and",
"possibly",
"new",
"Canadian",
"purchases",
"."
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[
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"a",
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".",
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",",
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",",
"a",
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[
"Columbia",
"Savings",
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",",
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"11.57",
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",",
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",",
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"securities",
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"bonds",
",",
"$",
"400",
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",",
"and",
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"Columbia",
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"years",
"to",
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",",
"the",
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".",
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",",
"Drexel",
"Burnham",
"Lambert",
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".",
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"nine",
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",",
"losses",
"totaled",
"$",
"212",
"million",
",",
"or",
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"10.83",
"a",
"share",
",",
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"with",
"net",
"income",
"of",
"$",
"48.7",
"million",
",",
"or",
"$",
"1.11",
"a",
"share",
",",
"a",
"year",
"earlier",
".",
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"results",
"include",
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"$",
"130.2",
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"write-down",
"of",
"the",
"securities",
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"the",
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"their",
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"or",
"market",
"value",
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"added",
"$",
"227.3",
"million",
"to",
"reserves",
"for",
"losses",
"on",
"the",
"portfolio",
",",
"increasing",
"general",
"reserves",
"to",
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"300",
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",",
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"about",
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",",
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"30",
".",
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"30",
",",
"loss",
"reserves",
"stood",
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"$",
"108.3",
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".",
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"300",
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"reserve",
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"be",
"adjusted",
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"and",
"will",
"reflect",
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"dispositions",
"and",
"market",
"conditions",
".",
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"result",
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"the",
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"bailout",
"legislation",
",",
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"requires",
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"divest",
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"bond",
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".",
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"have",
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"book",
"value",
"of",
"its",
"junk-bond",
"holdings",
"to",
"reflect",
"declines",
"in",
"market",
"prices",
",",
"because",
"it",
"held",
"the",
"bonds",
"as",
"long-term",
"investments",
".",
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"now",
"must",
"sell",
"the",
"bonds",
"within",
"five",
"years",
",",
"accounting",
"rules",
"require",
"the",
"thrift",
"to",
"value",
"the",
"bonds",
"at",
"the",
"lower",
"of",
"cost",
"or",
"market",
"prices",
".",
"For",
"its",
"future",
"strategy",
",",
"Columbia",
"officials",
"said",
"the",
"thrift",
"may",
"branch",
"out",
"into",
"commercial",
"lending",
"or",
"managing",
"outside",
"investments",
",",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"beefing",
"up",
"more",
"traditional",
"thrift",
"activities",
".",
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"quarterly",
"results",
"also",
"reflected",
"$",
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".",
"Thomas",
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",",
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",",
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"Columbia",
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"5.125",
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"York",
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",",
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"The",
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",",
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"they",
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"about",
"$",
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",",
"as",
"investors",
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"that",
"the",
"thrift",
"would",
"be",
"forced",
"to",
"take",
"a",
"big",
"write-down",
".",
"The",
"stock",
"'s",
"decline",
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"in",
"the",
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"two",
"weeks",
",",
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"a",
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"8",
"a",
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"9",
".",
"Columbia",
"officials",
"said",
"they",
"do",
"n't",
"know",
"how",
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"they",
"will",
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"the",
"thrift",
"'s",
"junk",
"bonds",
",",
"because",
"federal",
"regulations",
",",
"such",
"as",
"those",
"that",
"would",
"allow",
"thrifts",
"to",
"continue",
"holding",
"the",
"bonds",
"in",
"separately",
"capitalized",
"subsidiaries",
",",
"have",
"n't",
"yet",
"been",
"completed",
".",
"Columbia",
"officials",
"also",
"said",
"the",
"thrift",
"should",
"n't",
"face",
"problems",
"meeting",
"regulatory",
"capital",
"requirements",
",",
"despite",
"the",
"large",
"reserves",
"and",
"write-downs",
"and",
"stiffer",
"regulatory",
"requirements",
"that",
"should",
"be",
"in",
"place",
"by",
"year",
"'s",
"end",
".",
"Its",
"ratio",
"of",
"tangible",
"equity",
"to",
"total",
"assets",
"as",
"of",
"Sept.",
"30",
"was",
"3.6",
"%",
",",
"and",
"total",
"equity",
"was",
"$",
"457.9",
"million",
".",
"The",
"thrift",
"emphasized",
"that",
"it",
"has",
"a",
"large",
"portfolio",
"of",
"equity",
"securities",
"issued",
"in",
"connection",
"with",
"corporate",
"restructurings",
"and",
"leveraged",
"buy-outs",
",",
"which",
"has",
"a",
"book",
"value",
"of",
"$",
"90",
"million",
".",
"Although",
"many",
"of",
"the",
"transactions",
"related",
"to",
"those",
"securities",
"have",
"n't",
"been",
"completed",
",",
"Columbia",
"said",
"the",
"ultimate",
"gain",
"on",
"the",
"sale",
"of",
"those",
"assets",
"will",
"range",
"from",
"$",
"200",
"million",
"to",
"$",
"300",
"million",
".",
"Columbia",
"also",
"has",
"unrealized",
"gains",
"in",
"its",
"public",
"equity",
"securities",
"portfolio",
"of",
"more",
"than",
"$",
"70",
"million",
".",
"David",
"B.",
"Hilder",
"in",
"New",
"York",
"contributed",
"to",
"this",
"article",
"."
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[
"Carl",
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"Robert",
"C.",
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",",
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"operating",
"officer",
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"the",
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",",
"succeeds",
"Mr.",
"Pfeiffer",
"as",
"president",
"."
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[
"The",
"National",
"Aeronautics",
"and",
"Space",
"Administration",
"said",
"a",
"computer",
"virus",
"has",
"infected",
"one",
"of",
"its",
"networks",
"and",
"is",
"spreading",
"anti-nuclear",
"messages",
"related",
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"its",
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"space",
"probe",
",",
"which",
"is",
"to",
"be",
"launched",
"today",
".",
"Charles",
"Redmond",
",",
"a",
"NASA",
"spokesman",
",",
"said",
"the",
"agency",
"discovered",
"the",
"virus",
"on",
"Monday",
"on",
"the",
"collection",
"of",
"computer",
"networks",
"collectively",
"called",
"Internet",
"and",
"expected",
"100",
"university",
"centers",
"to",
"be",
"infected",
"by",
"today",
".",
"Although",
"the",
"network",
"is",
"n't",
"connected",
"to",
"the",
"computer",
"systems",
"that",
"operate",
"either",
"Galileo",
"or",
"the",
"shuttle",
",",
"part",
"of",
"the",
"network",
"will",
"carry",
"analyses",
"of",
"Galileo",
"data",
"once",
"the",
"craft",
"gets",
"spaceborn",
".",
"Mr.",
"Redmond",
"said",
"the",
"intruder",
"had",
"n't",
"yet",
"done",
"any",
"harm",
"but",
"the",
"agency",
"feared",
"``",
"garbage",
"data",
"could",
"be",
"substituted",
"for",
"real",
"data",
".",
"''",
"He",
"estimated",
"it",
"could",
"take",
"a",
"day",
"for",
"a",
"computer",
"security",
"manager",
"to",
"expunge",
"the",
"virus",
"from",
"a",
"computer",
"system",
".",
"The",
"intruder",
",",
"among",
"the",
"broadest",
"yet",
"to",
"hit",
"a",
"research",
"network",
",",
"appeared",
"to",
"affect",
"only",
"Digital",
"Equipment",
"Corp.",
"hardware",
"that",
"uses",
"Digital",
"'s",
"VAX/VMS",
"operating",
"system",
".",
"It",
"is",
"unrelated",
"to",
"the",
"much-publicized",
"virus",
"that",
"last",
"year",
"infected",
"Arpanet",
",",
"a",
"much",
"larger",
"network",
"used",
"by",
"researchers",
"at",
"universities",
",",
"laboratories",
"and",
"government",
"agencies",
"around",
"the",
"world",
".",
"In",
"the",
"lingo",
"of",
"computer",
"security",
",",
"the",
"NASA",
"intruder",
"is",
"technically",
"a",
"computer",
"worm",
",",
"Mr.",
"Redmond",
"said",
".",
"A",
"worm",
"resides",
"in",
"the",
"operating",
"system",
"of",
"a",
"computer",
"and",
"spreads",
"by",
"boring",
"into",
"other",
"computers",
"contacted",
"through",
"networks",
".",
"The",
"Galileo",
"worm",
"apparently",
"was",
"hatched",
"on",
"a",
"computer",
"in",
"France",
"hooked",
"up",
"to",
"NASA",
"'s",
"Space",
"Physics",
"Analysis",
"Network",
",",
"Mr.",
"Redmond",
"said",
".",
"NASA",
"said",
"the",
"Galileo",
"worm",
"had",
"n't",
"affected",
"its",
"computers",
"or",
"the",
"computers",
"of",
"other",
"government",
"agencies",
"because",
"they",
"had",
"modified",
"their",
"systems",
"to",
"reject",
"worms",
".",
"But",
"Mr.",
"Redmond",
"said",
"the",
"worm",
"hit",
"universities",
"that",
"had",
"n't",
"elected",
"to",
"make",
"the",
"changes",
".",
"Michael",
"Alexander",
",",
"a",
"senior",
"editor",
"at",
"Computerworld",
",",
"a",
"trade",
"publication",
",",
"said",
"he",
"was",
"told",
"that",
"the",
"worm",
"gets",
"into",
"a",
"computer",
"center",
"by",
"looking",
"for",
"obvious",
"passwords",
"--",
"such",
"as",
"ones",
"that",
"are",
"the",
"same",
"as",
"the",
"user",
"'s",
"name",
".",
"If",
"it",
"finds",
"one",
"and",
"gets",
"into",
"the",
"system",
",",
"it",
"will",
"display",
"a",
"screen",
"when",
"a",
"user",
"logs",
"on",
"that",
"says",
",",
"``",
"Worms",
"Against",
"Nuclear",
"Killers",
"...",
".",
"You",
"talk",
"of",
"times",
"of",
"peace",
"for",
"all",
",",
"and",
"then",
"prepare",
"for",
"war",
".",
"''",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"Mr.",
"Alexander",
"said",
",",
"the",
"worm",
"sends",
"strange",
"messages",
"to",
"other",
"machines",
"at",
"the",
"center",
"--",
"such",
"as",
",",
"``",
"George",
"Orwell",
"was",
"an",
"optimist",
",",
"''",
"or",
"``",
"Do",
"n't",
"feed",
"the",
"bats",
"tonight",
".",
"''",
"The",
"worm",
"also",
"looks",
"for",
"elementary",
"passwords",
"that",
"confer",
"more",
"privileges",
"on",
"the",
"user",
".",
"The",
"passwords",
"are",
"included",
"in",
"the",
"system",
"software",
"when",
"it",
"is",
"installed",
"but",
"are",
"supposed",
"to",
"be",
"replaced",
"as",
"soon",
"as",
"the",
"system",
"is",
"up",
"and",
"running",
".",
"If",
"it",
"finds",
"one",
"of",
"those",
"passwords",
",",
"Mr.",
"Alexander",
"said",
",",
"the",
"worm",
"will",
"do",
"such",
"things",
"as",
"change",
"users",
"'",
"passwords",
"to",
"a",
"series",
"of",
"random",
"numbers",
",",
"preventing",
"them",
"from",
"signing",
"on",
"to",
"the",
"network",
".",
"NASA",
"estimated",
"that",
",",
"on",
"Monday",
",",
"about",
"four",
"computer",
"centers",
"were",
"affected",
".",
"Yesterday",
",",
"the",
"number",
"grew",
"to",
"40",
";",
"today",
"the",
"number",
"is",
"expected",
"to",
"grow",
"to",
"100",
".",
"NASA",
"said",
"it",
"will",
"take",
"about",
"a",
"week",
"before",
"it",
"knows",
"exactly",
"how",
"many",
"centers",
"of",
"the",
"6,000",
"connected",
"to",
"Internet",
"were",
"affected",
"and",
"the",
"extent",
"of",
"the",
"damage",
",",
"if",
"any",
".",
"Anti-nuclear",
"activists",
"have",
"protested",
"the",
"launch",
"of",
"the",
"Galileo",
"space",
"probe",
"to",
"Jupiter",
"because",
"it",
"uses",
"plutonium",
"to",
"generate",
"the",
"electricity",
"needed",
"to",
"run",
"the",
"craft",
".",
"Activists",
"fear",
"that",
"if",
"the",
"shuttle",
"carrying",
"Galileo",
"into",
"orbit",
"should",
"explode",
",",
"or",
"if",
"Galileo",
"itself",
"crashes",
"into",
"the",
"Earth",
"during",
"the",
"two",
"times",
"it",
"flies",
"close",
"to",
"the",
"planet",
",",
"fatal",
"levels",
"of",
"plutonium",
"would",
"be",
"released",
"into",
"the",
"atmosphere",
".",
"So",
"far",
"Galileo",
"has",
"been",
"delayed",
"twice",
",",
"once",
"because",
"of",
"a",
"computer",
"malfunction",
"connected",
"with",
"a",
"space-shuttle",
"engine",
",",
"and",
"yesterday",
"because",
"of",
"the",
"weather",
".",
"NASA",
"said",
"the",
"Galileo",
"worm",
"had",
"nothing",
"to",
"do",
"with",
"either",
"delay",
".",
"Mr.",
"Alexander",
"of",
"Computerworld",
"said",
"hackers",
"have",
"gone",
"after",
"SPAN",
"before",
".",
"He",
"said",
"the",
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",",
"of",
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"Germany",
",",
"once",
"managed",
"to",
"invade",
"SPAN",
"and",
"do",
"such",
"things",
"as",
"change",
"the",
"value",
"of",
"pi",
",",
"messing",
"up",
"some",
"calculations",
"."
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[
"Insiders",
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"&",
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".",
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"yesterday",
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",",
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",",
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".",
"John",
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"sold",
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",",
"sold",
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".",
"But",
"analysts",
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"the",
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",",
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",",
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".",
"Last",
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",",
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",",
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"Jones",
"Professional",
"Investors",
"Report",
",",
"citing",
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"business",
".",
"He",
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"hold",
"from",
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"earnings",
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".",
"Mr.",
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"a",
"longterm",
"buy",
".",
"The",
"stock",
"slid",
"$",
"1.875",
"on",
"more",
"than",
"four",
"times",
"average",
"daily",
"volume",
".",
"The",
"stock",
"received",
"another",
"blow",
"on",
"Friday",
",",
"when",
"Goldman",
"Sachs",
"analyst",
"Eric",
"Philo",
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"that",
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"with",
"short-term",
"horizons",
"should",
"avoid",
"Dun",
"&",
"Bradstreet",
"stock",
"because",
"it",
"is",
"unlikely",
"to",
"outperform",
"the",
"market",
".",
"The",
"stock",
"fell",
"75",
"cents",
".",
"Insider",
"selling",
"is",
"not",
"unusual",
"at",
"Dun",
"&",
"Bradstreet",
";",
"in",
"fact",
",",
"the",
"recent",
"pace",
"of",
"selling",
"is",
"just",
"about",
"average",
"for",
"the",
"company",
",",
"according",
"to",
"figures",
"compiled",
"by",
"Invest/Net",
",",
"a",
"North",
"Miami",
",",
"Fla.",
",",
"firm",
"that",
"specializes",
"in",
"tracking",
"and",
"analyzing",
"SEC",
"insider",
"filings",
".",
"But",
"previous",
"sales",
"have",
"often",
"been",
"sales",
"of",
"shares",
"purchased",
"through",
"the",
"exercise",
"of",
"stock",
"options",
"and",
"sold",
"six",
"months",
"later",
",",
"as",
"soon",
"as",
"allowed",
",",
"said",
"Robert",
"Gabele",
",",
"president",
"of",
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".",
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"most",
"recent",
"sales",
"do",
"n't",
"appear",
"to",
"be",
"option-related",
",",
"he",
"said",
".",
"TASTY",
"PROFITS",
":",
"Michael",
"A.",
"Miles",
",",
"chief",
"executive",
"officer",
"of",
"Philip",
"Morris",
"Cos",
".",
"'",
"Kraft",
"General",
"Foods",
"unit",
",",
"bought",
"6,000",
"shares",
"of",
"the",
"company",
"on",
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"22",
"for",
"$",
"157",
"each",
".",
"The",
"$",
"942,000",
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"raised",
"his",
"holdings",
"to",
"74,000",
"shares",
".",
"The",
"stock",
"split",
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"on",
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"10",
".",
"Mr.",
"Miles",
"'s",
"newly",
"purchased",
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"are",
"now",
"worth",
"$",
"1,068,000",
",",
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"44.50",
",",
"up",
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",",
"in",
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"trading",
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"York",
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"Exchange",
"yesterday",
".",
"A",
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"said",
"he",
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[
"It",
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"``",
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",",
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"And",
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",",
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"Mr.",
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",",
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"State",
"Comptroller",
"Edward",
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",",
"Mr.",
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".",
"``",
"He",
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",",
"''",
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"Council",
"President",
"Andrew",
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"``",
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",",
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",",
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"''",
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",",
"Mr.",
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",",
"Mr.",
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"violence",
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"``",
"The",
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",",
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",",
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"``",
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".",
"''",
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".",
"Rather",
"than",
"scaring",
"off",
"white",
"voters",
",",
"as",
"many",
"predicted",
"he",
"would",
",",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"attracted",
"many",
"whites",
"precisely",
"because",
"of",
"his",
"reputation",
"for",
"having",
"a",
"cool",
"head",
".",
"(",
"Keeping",
"cool",
"is",
"a",
"Dinkins",
"priority",
":",
"On",
"humid",
"days",
"this",
"summer",
",",
"he",
"was",
"known",
"to",
"change",
"his",
"double-breasted",
"suits",
"as",
"many",
"as",
"four",
"times",
"a",
"day",
".",
")",
"But",
"even",
"in",
"his",
"front-runner",
"campaign",
",",
"he",
"has",
"shown",
"signs",
"of",
"the",
"indecisiveness",
"and",
"confusion",
"that",
"some",
"say",
"has",
"plagued",
"his",
"tenure",
"as",
"Manhattan",
"borough",
"president",
"--",
"and",
"might",
"hinder",
"him",
"as",
"mayor",
".",
"Over",
"the",
"last",
"few",
"weeks",
",",
"he",
"has",
"frittered",
"away",
"roughly",
"half",
"of",
"what",
"was",
"once",
"a",
"33-point",
"lead",
"in",
"the",
"polls",
"over",
"Mr.",
"Giuliani",
".",
"A",
"story",
"about",
"how",
"he",
"mishandled",
"the",
"sale",
"to",
"his",
"son",
"of",
"his",
"stock",
"in",
"a",
"media",
"company",
"controlled",
"by",
"his",
"political",
"patron",
"Percy",
"Sutton",
"was",
"allowed",
"to",
"fester",
"a",
"full",
"week",
"before",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"faced",
"the",
"media",
".",
"He",
"has",
"canceled",
"numerous",
"campaign",
"appointments",
"and",
"was",
"largely",
"inaccessible",
"to",
"the",
"media",
"until",
"the",
"stock",
"story",
"broke",
".",
"His",
"campaign",
"was",
"caught",
"flat-footed",
"amid",
"allegations",
"it",
"paid",
"almost",
"$",
"10,000",
"for",
"what",
"it",
"said",
"was",
"a",
"``",
"get-out-the-vote",
"''",
"effort",
"by",
"black",
"activist",
"Sonny",
"Carson",
",",
"a",
"convicted",
"kidnapper",
"who",
"later",
"said",
"publicly",
"that",
"he",
"is",
"``",
"anti-white",
".",
"''",
"Critics",
"have",
"said",
"the",
"payment",
"looked",
"like",
"an",
"attempt",
"by",
"the",
"Dinkins",
"camp",
"to",
"get",
"Mr.",
"Carson",
"to",
"stop",
"leading",
"confrontational",
"demonstrations",
"protesting",
"the",
"Bensonhurst",
"murder",
"--",
"protests",
"the",
"campaign",
"may",
"have",
"feared",
"could",
"cause",
"some",
"white",
"voters",
"to",
"turn",
"from",
"a",
"black",
"candidate",
".",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"also",
"has",
"failed",
"to",
"allay",
"Jewish",
"voters",
"'",
"fears",
"about",
"his",
"association",
"with",
"the",
"Rev.",
"Jesse",
"Jackson",
",",
"despite",
"the",
"fact",
"that",
"few",
"local",
"non-Jewish",
"politicians",
"have",
"been",
"as",
"vocal",
"for",
"Jewish",
"causes",
"in",
"the",
"past",
"20",
"years",
"as",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"has",
".",
"These",
"campaign",
"problems",
"have",
"echoed",
"difficulties",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"has",
"run",
"into",
"before",
".",
"A",
"former",
"U.S.",
"Marine",
",",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"got",
"off",
"to",
"a",
"quick",
"start",
"in",
"politics",
",",
"joining",
"a",
"local",
"Democratic",
"political",
"club",
"in",
"the",
"1950s",
",",
"linking",
"up",
"with",
"black",
"urban",
"leaders",
"such",
"as",
"Charles",
"Rangel",
",",
"Basil",
"Paterson",
"and",
"Mr.",
"Sutton",
",",
"and",
"getting",
"himself",
"elected",
"to",
"the",
"state",
"assembly",
"in",
"1965",
".",
"But",
"his",
"chance",
"to",
"become",
"deputy",
"mayor",
"under",
"Mayor",
"Abraham",
"Beame",
",",
"a",
"plan",
"boosted",
"by",
"Mr.",
"Sutton",
",",
"was",
"squandered",
"because",
"of",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"failure",
"--",
"still",
"largely",
"unexplained",
"--",
"to",
"file",
"income",
"tax",
"returns",
"for",
"four",
"years",
"running",
".",
"``",
"I",
"always",
"thought",
"of",
"this",
"as",
"a",
"thing",
"that",
"could",
"always",
"be",
"done",
"tomorrow",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
"at",
"the",
"time",
".",
"Later",
",",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"became",
"more",
"deeply",
"indebted",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Sutton",
"and",
"other",
"city",
"pols",
",",
"including",
"then-City",
"Council",
"President",
"Paul",
"O'Dwyer",
",",
"when",
"they",
"helped",
"him",
"get",
"appointed",
"city",
"clerk",
",",
"a",
"largely",
"ceremonial",
"post",
"responsible",
"for",
"the",
"city",
"'s",
"marriage",
"bureau",
",",
"among",
"other",
"things",
".",
"(",
"Mr.",
"O'Dwyer",
"is",
"now",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"lawyers",
"for",
"Mr.",
"Sutton",
"'s",
"media",
"company",
".",
")",
"The",
"debt",
"rose",
"further",
"in",
"1977",
"when",
"Mr.",
"Sutton",
"resigned",
"his",
"position",
"as",
"Manhattan",
"borough",
"president",
"to",
"run",
"for",
"mayor",
".",
"Mr.",
"Sutton",
"recalls",
":",
"``",
"When",
"I",
"left",
",",
"I",
"sat",
"down",
"with",
"Charlie",
"-LCB-",
"Rangel",
"-RCB-",
",",
"Basil",
"-LCB-",
"Paterson",
"-RCB-",
"and",
"David",
",",
"and",
"David",
"said",
",",
"`",
"Who",
"will",
"run",
"for",
"borough",
"president",
"?",
"'",
"And",
"I",
"said",
",",
"`",
"You",
"will",
".",
"'",
"''",
"David",
"Garth",
",",
"Mayor",
"Koch",
"'s",
"longtime",
"media",
"adviser",
",",
"says",
"of",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
",",
"``",
"He",
"really",
"is",
"the",
"personification",
"of",
"the",
"patronage",
"system",
".",
"But",
"the",
"guy",
"is",
"so",
"personally",
"decent",
",",
"people",
"tend",
"to",
"forget",
"that",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"lost",
"twice",
"by",
"wide",
"margins",
"before",
"finally",
"getting",
"elected",
"borough",
"president",
"in",
"1985",
".",
"But",
"by",
"most",
"accounts",
",",
"he",
"made",
"little",
"of",
"the",
"post",
"and",
"was",
"best",
"known",
"among",
"city",
"politicians",
"for",
"his",
"problems",
"making",
"up",
"his",
"mind",
"on",
"matters",
"before",
"the",
"city",
"'s",
"Board",
"of",
"Estimate",
",",
"the",
"body",
"that",
"votes",
"on",
"crucial",
"budget",
"and",
"land-use",
"matters",
".",
"Colleagues",
"today",
"recall",
"with",
"some",
"humor",
"how",
"meetings",
"would",
"crawl",
"into",
"the",
"early",
"morning",
"hours",
"as",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"would",
"march",
"his",
"staff",
"out",
"of",
"board",
"meetings",
"and",
"into",
"his",
"private",
"office",
"to",
"discuss",
",",
"en",
"masse",
",",
"certain",
"controversial",
"proposals",
".",
"``",
"He",
"taught",
"me",
"how",
"to",
"drink",
"herbal",
"tea",
"instead",
"of",
"coffee",
"at",
"3",
"a.m.",
",",
"I",
"'ll",
"give",
"him",
"that",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Deputy",
"Mayor",
"Robert",
"Esnard",
".",
"Often",
",",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"procrastination",
"prevented",
"him",
"from",
"having",
"a",
"say",
"in",
"the",
"way",
"things",
"turned",
"out",
",",
"critics",
"claim",
".",
"On",
"the",
"campaign",
"stump",
",",
"he",
"often",
"points",
"out",
"that",
"he",
"was",
"the",
"only",
"Board",
"of",
"Estimate",
"member",
"to",
"vote",
"against",
"a",
"controversial",
"real-estate",
"project",
"at",
"Manhattan",
"'s",
"Columbus",
"Circle",
".",
"But",
"board",
"members",
"say",
"he",
"took",
"so",
"long",
"to",
"decide",
"how",
"to",
"vote",
"that",
"by",
"the",
"time",
"he",
"decided",
",",
"it",
"was",
"too",
"late",
"to",
"try",
"to",
"draw",
"other",
"members",
"to",
"his",
"position",
".",
"Says",
"one",
"city",
"official",
":",
"``",
"Everybody",
"else",
"had",
"brought",
"in",
"the",
"wagons",
"and",
"made",
"their",
"deal",
".",
"He",
"would",
"have",
"got",
"a",
"lot",
"more",
"done",
"if",
"he",
"made",
"up",
"his",
"mind",
"faster",
".",
"''",
"One",
"Board",
"member",
",",
"Bronx",
"Borough",
"President",
"Ferdinand",
"Ferrer",
",",
"was",
"said",
"to",
"be",
"so",
"impatient",
"with",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"behavior",
"at",
"many",
"meetings",
"that",
"he",
"withheld",
"his",
"support",
"for",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"mayoral",
"effort",
"until",
"late",
"in",
"the",
"primary",
"campaign",
".",
"``",
"I",
"had",
"some",
"problem",
"from",
"time",
"to",
"time",
"on",
"the",
"length",
"of",
"time",
"he",
"would",
"take",
"to",
"make",
"up",
"his",
"mind",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Ferrer",
"admits",
",",
"but",
"he",
"maintains",
"that",
"he",
"did",
"n't",
"delay",
"his",
"support",
"of",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"and",
"that",
"he",
"backs",
"the",
"Democratic",
"candidate",
"enthusiastically",
".",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"campaign",
"manager",
"and",
"former",
"chief",
"of",
"staff",
",",
"Bill",
"Lynch",
",",
"denies",
"that",
"the",
"Manhattan",
"borough",
"president",
"has",
"taken",
"too",
"long",
"to",
"decide",
"important",
"issues",
".",
"``",
"We",
"did",
"n't",
"rubber-stamp",
"everything",
"that",
"came",
"to",
"us",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Lynch",
"says",
".",
"On",
"some",
"occasions",
"when",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"has",
"discussed",
"the",
"issues",
"during",
"the",
"campaign",
",",
"he",
"has",
"run",
"into",
"a",
"familiar",
"kind",
"of",
"trouble",
".",
"Some",
"supporters",
"were",
"stunned",
"this",
"summer",
"when",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"suggested",
"weakening",
"the",
"law",
"forbidding",
"public",
"employees",
"to",
"go",
"on",
"strike",
".",
"He",
"withdrew",
"the",
"remark",
".",
"When",
"he",
"later",
"sided",
"with",
"striking",
"hospital",
"workers",
",",
"some",
"allies",
"cringed",
"a",
"little",
"more",
",",
"concerned",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"was",
"setting",
"the",
"wrong",
"tone",
"for",
"coming",
"contract",
"negotiations",
"with",
"city",
"employees",
".",
"Then",
",",
"two",
"days",
"before",
"receiving",
"an",
"endorsement",
"from",
"environmental",
"groups",
",",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"promised",
"he",
"would",
"issue",
"a",
"three-year",
"moratorium",
"on",
"construction",
"of",
"garbage-incinerator",
"plants",
".",
"That",
"announcement",
"was",
"roundly",
"criticized",
"by",
"Mayor",
"Koch",
"--",
"who",
"has",
"endorsed",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"--",
"because",
"the",
"city",
"faces",
"a",
"garbage",
"crisis",
"and",
"has",
"already",
"spent",
"$",
"5",
"million",
"planning",
"for",
"an",
"incinerator",
"that",
"would",
"be",
"scrapped",
"under",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"proposal",
".",
"While",
"his",
"public",
"statements",
"have",
"at",
"times",
"been",
"confusing",
",",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"position",
"papers",
"have",
"more",
"consistently",
"reflected",
"anti-development",
"sentiment",
".",
"He",
"favors",
"a",
"form",
"of",
"commercial",
"rent",
"control",
",",
"which",
"the",
"financial",
"community",
"believes",
"would",
"make",
"it",
"more",
"difficult",
"to",
"attract",
"investment",
"in",
"the",
"city",
".",
"In",
"the",
"midst",
"of",
"a",
"labor",
"shortage",
",",
"he",
"proposes",
"linking",
"city",
"subsidies",
"to",
"businesses",
"to",
"their",
"record",
"of",
"hiring",
"New",
"York",
"City",
"residents",
".",
"With",
"an",
"untrained",
"local",
"labor",
"pool",
",",
"many",
"experts",
"believe",
",",
"that",
"policy",
"could",
"drive",
"businesses",
"from",
"the",
"city",
".",
"And",
"he",
"favors",
"a",
"more",
"cooperative",
"approach",
"toward",
"the",
"neighboring",
"states",
"of",
"New",
"Jersey",
"and",
"Connecticut",
"in",
"the",
"battle",
"over",
"companies",
"thinking",
"of",
"moving",
"employees",
"out",
"of",
"New",
"York",
"City",
".",
"Many",
"economic-development",
"officials",
"say",
"the",
"Koch",
"administration",
"'s",
"aggressive",
"approach",
"helped",
"save",
"5,000",
"Chase",
"Manhattan",
"Bank",
"jobs",
"from",
"moving",
"across",
"the",
"Hudson",
".",
"But",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"economic",
"planks",
"do",
"n't",
"seem",
"to",
"bother",
"the",
"business",
"community",
",",
"where",
"he",
"draws",
"significant",
"support",
".",
"Steven",
"Spinola",
",",
"president",
"of",
"the",
"Real",
"Estate",
"Board",
"of",
"New",
"York",
",",
"an",
"industry",
"organization",
",",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"``",
"economic",
"development",
"program",
"is",
"shortsighted",
",",
"but",
"when",
"it",
"comes",
"down",
"to",
"it",
",",
"he",
"can",
"be",
"reasonable",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"inner",
"circle",
"of",
"advisers",
"appears",
"to",
"include",
"both",
"ideologues",
"and",
"pragmatists",
",",
"leaving",
"voters",
"with",
"little",
"clue",
"as",
"to",
"who",
"will",
"be",
"more",
"influential",
".",
"The",
"key",
"man",
"seems",
"to",
"be",
"the",
"campaign",
"manager",
",",
"Mr.",
"Lynch",
".",
"A",
"disheveled",
",",
"roly-poly",
"son",
"of",
"a",
"Long",
"Island",
"potato",
"farmer",
",",
"Mr.",
"Lynch",
"is",
"a",
"veteran",
"union",
"organizer",
"who",
"worked",
"on",
"the",
"presidential",
"campaigns",
"of",
"Sen.",
"Edward",
"Kennedy",
"and",
"Mr.",
"Jackson",
".",
"But",
"as",
"the",
"Dinkins",
"campaign",
"hit",
"tough",
"times",
"this",
"month",
",",
"Andrew",
"Cuomo",
",",
"the",
"politically",
"seasoned",
"son",
"of",
"the",
"New",
"York",
"governor",
",",
"is",
"also",
"said",
"to",
"have",
"taken",
"a",
"more",
"active",
"role",
"on",
"strategy",
".",
"Another",
"close",
"ally",
"is",
"Ruth",
"Messinger",
",",
"a",
"Manhattan",
"city",
"councilwoman",
",",
"some",
"of",
"whose",
"programs",
",",
"such",
"as",
"commercial",
"rent",
"control",
",",
"have",
"made",
"their",
"way",
"into",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"position",
"papers",
".",
"If",
"she",
"remains",
"influential",
"with",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
",",
"as",
"some",
"suggest",
"she",
"will",
",",
"his",
"mayoralty",
"may",
"take",
"on",
"a",
"more",
"anti-development",
"flavor",
".",
"But",
"Lincoln",
"Center",
"President",
"Nathan",
"Leventhal",
",",
"who",
"would",
"head",
"a",
"Dinkins",
"transition",
"team",
",",
"is",
"more",
"mainstream",
",",
"as",
"is",
"real-estate",
"executive",
"Anthony",
"Gliedman",
",",
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".",
"Mr.",
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"American",
"Express",
"Co.",
"chairman",
"James",
"D.",
"Robinson",
"III",
",",
"investment",
"banker",
"Felix",
"Rohatyn",
",",
"leveraged-buy-out",
"specialist",
"Reginald",
"Lewis",
"and",
"attorney",
"Joseph",
"Flom",
".",
"Some",
"business",
"leaders",
"and",
"others",
"also",
"believe",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"would",
"place",
"significant",
"responsibility",
"in",
"the",
"hands",
"of",
"a",
"deputy",
"mayor",
"with",
"a",
"strong",
"administrative",
"background",
".",
"Names",
"of",
"possible",
"deputies",
"that",
"have",
"surfaced",
"include",
"former",
"mayoral",
"candidate",
"Richard",
"Ravitch",
",",
"former",
"schools",
"chancellor",
"Frank",
"Macchiarola",
"and",
"Messrs.",
"Leventhal",
"and",
"Gliedman",
".",
"Then",
"there",
"are",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"old-time",
"Harlem",
"colleagues",
",",
"such",
"as",
"U.S.",
"Rep.",
"Rangel",
",",
"former",
"Deputy",
"Mayor",
"Paterson",
"and",
"Mr.",
"Sutton",
".",
"Having",
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"positions",
"of",
"real",
"influence",
"or",
"wealth",
",",
"these",
"men",
"constitute",
"the",
"Old",
"Guard",
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"City",
"black",
"politics",
";",
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",",
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"political",
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".",
"(",
"Part",
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"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
"strength",
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"his",
"ability",
"to",
"win",
"the",
"support",
"of",
"both",
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"Brooklyn",
"and",
"Harlem",
"factions",
".",
")",
"``",
"We",
"know",
"there",
"are",
"potholes",
"for",
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"city",
"out",
"there",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Paterson",
",",
"Mr.",
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".",
"``",
"If",
"any",
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"we",
"'re",
"going",
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"David",
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",",
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".",
"''",
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"Ms.",
"Messinger",
",",
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",",
"``",
"You",
"have",
"to",
"remember",
"David",
"is",
"a",
"pragmatist",
".",
"''",
"But",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"'s",
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"an",
"insider",
"'s",
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"to",
"upset",
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".",
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",",
"as",
"mayor",
",",
"he",
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"``",
"fiefdoms",
"''",
"that",
"perpetuate",
"the",
"monumental",
"ineffectiveness",
"of",
"New",
"York",
"'s",
"school",
"system",
".",
"``",
"I",
"will",
"sit",
"down",
"and",
"talk",
"some",
"of",
"the",
"problems",
"out",
",",
"but",
"take",
"on",
"the",
"political",
"system",
"?",
"Uh-uh",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
"with",
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"shake",
"of",
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"head",
".",
"Despite",
"many",
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"his",
"candidacy",
",",
"white",
"New",
"Yorkers",
"--",
"who",
"gave",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
"30",
"%",
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"their",
"votes",
"in",
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"--",
"are",
"n't",
"expected",
"to",
"desert",
"in",
"sufficient",
"numbers",
"to",
"turn",
"the",
"election",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Giuliani",
".",
"The",
"former",
"U.S.",
"attorney",
",",
"who",
"prosecuted",
"targets",
"ranging",
"from",
"Mafia",
"dons",
"to",
"Wall",
"Street",
"executives",
",",
"has",
"succeeded",
"in",
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"questions",
"about",
"Mr.",
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"'s",
"ethical",
"standards",
",",
"but",
"so",
"far",
"has",
"failed",
"to",
"generate",
"excitement",
"about",
"his",
"own",
"candidacy",
".",
"As",
"a",
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"in",
"an",
"overwhelmingly",
"Democratic",
"city",
",",
"Mr.",
"Giuliani",
"has",
"an",
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"As",
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",",
"he",
"has",
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"slow",
"to",
"learn",
"the",
"nuances",
"of",
"New",
"York",
"City",
"politicking",
".",
"Mr.",
"Giuliani",
"is",
"finding",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Dinkins",
",",
"in",
"his",
"many",
"years",
"in",
"public",
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",",
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"up",
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"good",
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"so",
"far",
"has",
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"many",
"voters",
"to",
"overlook",
"certain",
"failings",
".",
"``",
"The",
"bottom",
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"that",
"he",
"is",
"a",
"very",
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",",
"''",
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"Malcolm",
"Hoenlein",
",",
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"leader",
".",
"``",
"In",
"the",
"end",
",",
"I",
"think",
"David",
"will",
"be",
"judged",
"for",
"being",
"David",
"."
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[
"T.",
"Rowe",
"Price",
"Associates",
"Inc.",
"said",
"directors",
"recommended",
"stockholders",
"approve",
"a",
"2-for-1",
"stock",
"split",
"and",
"an",
"increase",
"in",
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"advmod",
"nummod",
"obl:npmod",
"punct"
] |